BV1kB7z6hEdF · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:05,440 股市是一个将钱从急躁的人转移到耐心的人的工具 2 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:07,780 你以前听过这个说法或谚语吗 3 00:00:07,780 --> 00:00:08,939 我超爱这句话 4 00:00:08,939 --> 00:00:10,300 我觉得这是巴菲特的名言 5 00:00:10,300 --> 00:00:11,539 但我不完全确定 6 00:00:11,539 --> 00:00:13,390 但我一直很喜欢这句话 7 00:00:13,390 --> 00:00:14,890 这简直太真实了 8 00:00:14,890 --> 00:00:16,269 尤其是在像今年这样的年份 9 00:00:16,269 --> 00:00:17,629 你正在看像AMD这样的股票 10 00:00:17,629 --> 00:00:18,690 像美光科技这样的股票 11 00:00:18,690 --> 00:00:20,149 人们曾称它们为死钱 12 00:00:20,149 --> 00:00:21,350 这些股票长期来看 13 00:00:21,350 --> 00:00:21,839 对吧 14 00:00:21,839 --> 00:00:24,160 它们好几年都没什么动静 15 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,500 然后突然就飙升了 16 00:00:26,500 --> 00:00:28,899 涨幅高达数百甚至上千百分比 17 00:00:28,899 --> 00:00:32,500 没错，我想在这段视频里谈谈一些行情 18 00:00:32,500 --> 00:00:35,100 我今天在市场上看到的走势 19 00:00:35,100 --> 00:00:35,729 好的 20 00:00:35,729 --> 00:00:37,450 市场上有很多大幅波动 21 00:00:37,450 --> 00:00:38,950 所以我想花点时间 22 00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:42,200 谈谈我看到的投资机会以及哪些 23 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,880 其他我认为该获利了结的股票 24 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:46,219 属于这类情况 25 00:00:46,219 --> 00:00:47,799 完成之后 26 00:00:47,799 --> 00:00:48,280 看完这些内容 27 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:49,880 我之前发过这个 28 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:50,039 好的 29 00:00:50,039 --> 00:00:51,679 我现在刚发了一个小时前 30 00:00:51,679 --> 00:00:52,709 此时此刻 31 00:00:52,709 --> 00:00:55,908 看起来大约有1.5万人在我的X页面上看到了 32 00:00:55,908 --> 00:00:56,149 说 33 00:00:56,149 --> 00:00:58,109 如果必须全仓买入其中一只股票 34 00:00:58,109 --> 00:01:00,219 下一年的截图中 35 00:01:00,219 --> 00:01:01,460 你会选哪只 36 00:01:01,460 --> 00:01:03,100 在这段视频里 37 00:01:03,100 --> 00:01:03,600 告诉你 38 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,780 如果我必须全仓持有其中一只股票五年 39 00:01:07,780 --> 00:01:10,719 我会告诉你具体选哪只 40 00:01:10,719 --> 00:01:12,060 看完之后 41 00:01:12,060 --> 00:01:17,370 我今天在这里投入了89000美元 42 00:01:17,370 --> 00:01:18,969 这是我大手笔买入的一天 43 00:01:18,969 --> 00:01:21,030 我将分享具体买入了哪些股票 44 00:01:21,030 --> 00:01:23,569 看完之后为什么我会这么做 45 00:01:23,569 --> 00:01:24,829 接下来我要回应华尔街 46 00:01:24,829 --> 00:01:27,620 对市场未来走势的看法 47 00:01:27,620 --> 00:01:29,060 获利了结股票 48 00:01:29,060 --> 00:01:29,579 买入股票 49 00:01:29,579 --> 00:01:30,420 所有这些好东西 50 00:01:30,420 --> 00:01:30,840 好的 51 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,260 感谢你一如既往地加入我 52 00:01:32,260 --> 00:01:34,000 今天我们有很多内容要处理 53 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,459 在开始前我需要快速确认一件事 54 00:01:36,459 --> 00:01:38,718 如果你能点一下那个赞按钮 55 00:01:38,718 --> 00:01:40,120 那个竖起大拇指的图标 56 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:41,439 这对我来说意义重大 57 00:01:41,439 --> 00:01:41,840 谢谢 58 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:42,840 大家已经都点了 59 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:44,569 我由衷感谢你 60 00:01:44,569 --> 00:01:45,450 非常感谢 61 00:01:45,450 --> 00:01:45,989 好的 62 00:01:45,989 --> 00:01:47,090 女士们先生们 63 00:01:49,010 --> 00:01:52,140 目前各地都在发生重大变化 64 00:01:52,140 --> 00:01:54,299 Shopify今日上涨近8% 65 00:01:54,299 --> 00:01:56,900 Shopify仍是长期优质机会 66 00:01:56,900 --> 00:01:59,159 美国运通大涨约4% 67 00:01:59,159 --> 00:01:59,980 关注这只股票 68 00:01:59,980 --> 00:02:02,480 若消费者非必需品板块信心增强 69 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,519 美国运通将持续获得显著收益 70 00:02:06,519 --> 00:02:07,079 这仅仅 71 00:02:07,079 --> 00:02:08,780 这就是S级股票 72 00:02:08,780 --> 00:02:10,000 说到S级股票 73 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,719 谷歌麦当劳是这类股票之一 74 00:02:11,719 --> 00:02:14,599 听好，谷歌谷歌麦当劳 75 00:02:14,599 --> 00:02:17,599 这是我考虑清仓剩余持仓 76 00:02:17,599 --> 00:02:19,759 我已经部分获利了结谷歌 77 00:02:19,759 --> 00:02:23,829 我认为谷歌估值已过度扩张 78 00:02:23,829 --> 00:02:25,508 但这并不意味着不能成长 79 00:02:25,508 --> 00:02:27,989 我认为它能支撑当前估值 80 00:02:27,989 --> 00:02:29,248 但确实已明显过热 81 00:02:29,248 --> 00:02:31,769 考虑公司增长速度 82 00:02:31,769 --> 00:02:34,489 并非大科技最强增长公司 83 00:02:34,489 --> 00:02:35,169 确实如此 84 00:02:35,169 --> 00:02:37,568 它更像是更强劲的成长股 85 00:02:37,568 --> 00:02:38,389 呃 86 00:02:38,389 --> 00:02:39,280 亚马逊的 87 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:40,680 我认为这是个好话题 88 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,099 亚马逊将在未来几年超越谷歌 89 00:02:43,099 --> 00:02:46,830 而英伟达的成长速度远超谷歌 90 00:02:46,830 --> 00:02:47,349 麦当劳 91 00:02:47,349 --> 00:02:49,830 而微软则存在疑问 92 00:02:49,830 --> 00:02:50,849 如果它们能助力谷歌增长 93 00:02:50,849 --> 00:02:52,870 这确实值得深入讨论 94 00:02:52,870 --> 00:02:54,729 我暂时考虑这个方案 95 00:02:54,729 --> 00:02:56,169 我保留剩余持仓 96 00:02:56,169 --> 00:02:58,370 但我确实考虑过 97 00:02:58,370 --> 00:02:59,189 Fubo 98 00:02:59,189 --> 00:03:01,050 这只还有很长的路要走 99 00:03:01,050 --> 00:03:02,870 Revolves还有很长的路要走 100 00:03:02,870 --> 00:03:04,509 亚马逊正在强劲上涨 101 00:03:04,509 --> 00:03:05,509 现在是一个服务行业 102 00:03:05,509 --> 00:03:06,830 继续观察一些动量 103 00:03:06,830 --> 00:03:07,449 所以这很好 104 00:03:07,449 --> 00:03:11,058 我的意思是，SaaS股票似乎已经见底了 105 00:03:11,058 --> 00:03:13,419 这就是目前的好消息 106 00:03:13,419 --> 00:03:14,460 问题是 107 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:16,780 恢复需要多久呢 108 00:03:16,780 --> 00:03:21,229 这些股票要回到旧高点需要多长时间 109 00:03:21,229 --> 00:03:23,769 我的最佳情况预测 110 00:03:23,769 --> 00:03:25,588 六个月最坏情况预测 111 00:03:25,588 --> 00:03:27,049 十八个月左右，需要注意 112 00:03:27,049 --> 00:03:28,449 这些股票可能再也看不到 113 00:03:28,449 --> 00:03:29,149 它们的历史 114 00:03:29,149 --> 00:03:30,729 它们的历史高点 115 00:03:30,729 --> 00:03:34,588 但我相信像Salesforce和Service Now这样的公司会 116 00:03:34,588 --> 00:03:37,109 但能否在六个月内实现尚有争议 117 00:03:37,109 --> 00:03:38,348 或是在十八个月内 118 00:03:38,348 --> 00:03:39,588 我会将其定位在 119 00:03:39,588 --> 00:03:41,149 这两个股票的大致区间 120 00:03:41,149 --> 00:03:42,269 我相信两者都会 121 00:03:42,269 --> 00:03:42,968 新的历史高点 122 00:03:42,968 --> 00:03:43,500 对吧 123 00:03:43,500 --> 00:03:44,020 PayPal 124 00:03:44,020 --> 00:03:46,780 其商业模式仍是自动提款机 125 00:03:46,780 --> 00:03:48,250 Palers 126 00:03:48,250 --> 00:03:49,069 我的意思是 127 00:03:49,069 --> 00:03:51,490 Palantir现在估值合理 128 00:03:51,490 --> 00:03:52,449 在此时此刻 129 00:03:52,449 --> 00:03:54,349 你们都知道我对 130 00:03:54,349 --> 00:03:57,289 耐克冰爽 131 00:03:57,569 --> 00:03:58,870 这是绝佳机会 132 00:03:58,870 --> 00:04:02,849 所以为什么冰爽大幅下跌呢 133 00:04:02,849 --> 00:04:04,689 基本上 134 00:04:04,689 --> 00:04:06,069 看起来像一位总检察长 135 00:04:06,069 --> 00:04:07,639 我认为是在得州 136 00:04:07,639 --> 00:04:09,460 他们正在调查公司 137 00:04:09,460 --> 00:04:10,879 将进行调查 138 00:04:10,879 --> 00:04:14,479 因为产品色彩鲜艳且 139 00:04:14,479 --> 00:04:14,979 你们知道的 140 00:04:14,979 --> 00:04:15,680 嗯 141 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:16,480 他们可能担心 142 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:18,949 也许孩子想喝这些饮料 143 00:04:18,949 --> 00:04:20,430 这让我想起 144 00:04:20,430 --> 00:04:22,430 我以前必须处理Monster能量饮料 145 00:04:22,430 --> 00:04:24,769 当年还叫汉森天然饮料时 146 00:04:24,769 --> 00:04:27,309 你知道这些产品 147 00:04:27,309 --> 00:04:28,588 看起来像是 148 00:04:28,588 --> 00:04:33,420 哦，他们在向十八岁以下人群推销能量饮料 149 00:04:33,420 --> 00:04:34,519 类似的事情 150 00:04:34,519 --> 00:04:37,439 他们可能查不到什么 151 00:04:37,439 --> 00:04:37,899 你知道吗 152 00:04:37,899 --> 00:04:38,980 我不是律师 153 00:04:38,980 --> 00:04:41,379 但我认识一些非常非常优秀的律师 154 00:04:41,379 --> 00:04:42,759 我得说 155 00:04:42,759 --> 00:04:44,519 嗯，依我之见 156 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,639 如果我要问我的 157 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:49,490 我的律师的意见 158 00:04:49,490 --> 00:04:50,829 在这件事上 159 00:04:50,829 --> 00:04:52,410 我会说他们都可能说 160 00:04:52,410 --> 00:04:53,810 如果他们要分析这个情况 161 00:04:53,810 --> 00:04:54,329 他们会说像 162 00:04:54,329 --> 00:04:56,170 他们会发现什么问题呢 163 00:04:56,170 --> 00:04:57,370 他们在这里要做什么 164 00:04:57,370 --> 00:04:57,910 你知道的 165 00:04:57,910 --> 00:04:58,649 最坏的情况 166 00:04:58,649 --> 00:04:59,490 他们只会罚款 167 00:04:59,490 --> 00:05:00,490 但你能怎么办 168 00:05:00,490 --> 00:05:00,930 好吧 169 00:05:00,930 --> 00:05:03,470 你做彩色罐子像这样 170 00:05:03,470 --> 00:05:04,250 你在开玩笑吗 171 00:05:04,250 --> 00:05:05,470 翻我的煎饼 172 00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,370 这简直是个荒诞的闹剧 173 00:05:09,370 --> 00:05:11,838 对吧，就像 174 00:05:11,838 --> 00:05:12,738 是啊 175 00:05:12,738 --> 00:05:14,199 你知道所以总之 176 00:05:15,759 --> 00:05:16,879 因为担心这件事 177 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:17,858 基于这件事 178 00:05:17,858 --> 00:05:20,000 但这就是 Celsius 的问题 179 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,920 任何事都会让人们对这只股票恐慌 180 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:25,079 Celsius 啊，抱歉 181 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:25,480 嗯 182 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:26,459 Costco 183 00:05:26,459 --> 00:05:28,879 Costco 推出了新能量饮料 184 00:05:28,879 --> 00:05:30,339 对了，就像 185 00:05:30,339 --> 00:05:32,839 我记得 Celsius 股价因此下跌了，就像 186 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:33,019 哦 187 00:05:33,019 --> 00:05:34,480 Costco 推出了能量饮料 188 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:39,000 天啊，任何事发生 189 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:40,819 人们现在就会抛售股票 190 00:05:40,819 --> 00:05:42,360 你知道他们总在找借口 191 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:43,959 我只是让你们做你们想做的 192 00:05:43,959 --> 00:05:48,569 但我想起当年我为 Monster 经历过同样的麻烦 193 00:05:53,949 --> 00:05:55,069 市场份额 194 00:05:55,069 --> 00:05:57,250 新竞争对手出现，等等 195 00:05:57,250 --> 00:05:58,279 等等 196 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,319 都是老一套 197 00:05:59,319 --> 00:06:00,839 现在 Celsius 又在经历同样的事 198 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:01,879 但最终 199 00:06:01,879 --> 00:06:04,079 这些股票长期来看非常出色 200 00:06:04,079 --> 00:06:05,899 但短期内情况混乱 201 00:06:05,899 --> 00:06:06,500 没错 202 00:06:06,500 --> 00:06:09,240 Este lauder仍然是绝佳机会 203 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,620 这只股票低于百元价位 204 00:06:11,620 --> 00:06:14,899 我确实喜欢elf on a shelf要明确说明 205 00:06:14,899 --> 00:06:19,209 我更看好elf当前价格优于nesty larder 206 00:06:19,209 --> 00:06:22,069 我认为两者都将突破两百 207 00:06:22,069 --> 00:06:23,050 但算算账 208 00:06:23,050 --> 00:06:25,589 elf在五一线有更好的机会 209 00:06:25,589 --> 00:06:26,009 然后 210 00:06:26,009 --> 00:06:27,370 而lauder当前价为七十六 211 00:06:27,370 --> 00:06:29,750 我相信两者都将突破两百 212 00:06:29,750 --> 00:06:30,370 呃 213 00:06:30,370 --> 00:06:31,629 惠而浦越来越有趣了 214 00:06:31,629 --> 00:06:33,139 这只股票跌至四十美元 215 00:06:33,139 --> 00:06:34,779 我有点看好 216 00:06:34,779 --> 00:06:35,980 如果跌破三十五 217 00:06:35,980 --> 00:06:39,420 我几乎不可能不建仓惠而浦 218 00:06:39,420 --> 00:06:41,470 我密切关注惠而浦动向 219 00:06:41,470 --> 00:06:43,949 SoFi科技仍是绝佳机会 220 00:06:43,949 --> 00:06:44,730 低于二十元价位 221 00:06:44,730 --> 00:06:46,329 我真的很看好SoFi 222 00:06:46,329 --> 00:06:47,550 在此时此刻 223 00:06:47,550 --> 00:06:49,589 博通因财报下跌 224 00:06:49,589 --> 00:06:51,110 不过一切正常 225 00:06:51,110 --> 00:06:54,649 但你知道的 226 00:06:54,649 --> 00:06:55,309 这些股票表现 227 00:06:55,309 --> 00:06:56,369 市场如此兴奋 228 00:06:56,369 --> 00:06:57,249 你只需入场 229 00:06:57,249 --> 00:06:57,928 你知道的 230 00:06:57,928 --> 00:06:58,428 果断出手 231 00:06:58,428 --> 00:07:03,379 美光股价大幅下挫近8% 232 00:07:03,379 --> 00:07:05,930 但我说 233 00:07:05,930 --> 00:07:06,610 哦 234 00:07:06,610 --> 00:07:08,689 这些股票可能跌8% 235 00:07:08,689 --> 00:07:09,470 而美光 236 00:07:09,470 --> 00:07:10,649 可能 237 00:07:10,649 --> 00:07:11,730 明天再跌 238 00:07:11,730 --> 00:07:14,149 接下来两周或涨28% 239 00:07:14,149 --> 00:07:14,970 你知道我的意思 240 00:07:14,970 --> 00:07:16,120 就像 241 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,879 美光明天或涨至9.5 242 00:07:18,879 --> 00:07:21,639 两周后或达12.5 243 00:07:21,639 --> 00:07:23,389 这些股票 244 00:07:23,389 --> 00:07:24,769 你 245 00:07:24,769 --> 00:07:28,709 必须重仓压低 246 00:07:28,709 --> 00:07:31,829 它们极其难控 247 00:07:31,829 --> 00:07:33,250 难以压制下跌 248 00:07:33,250 --> 00:07:34,209 这就是我的看法 249 00:07:34,209 --> 00:07:35,658 他们可以抛售七个百分点 250 00:07:35,658 --> 00:07:36,298 你觉得怎么样 251 00:07:36,298 --> 00:07:37,699 如果你看空这些股票 252 00:07:37,699 --> 00:07:38,459 你觉得你赢了 253 00:07:38,459 --> 00:07:41,519 然后下周他们给你来个25%的涨幅 254 00:07:41,519 --> 00:07:42,720 简直像 255 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,339 你在开玩笑吗像 256 00:07:44,339 --> 00:07:45,279 天啊 257 00:07:45,279 --> 00:07:50,420 微芯科技股票终有一天会持续暴跌 258 00:07:50,420 --> 00:07:52,100 长时间无法回升 259 00:07:52,100 --> 00:07:54,019 AMD也会面临同样的情况 260 00:07:54,019 --> 00:07:56,449 但如今要预测这个 261 00:07:56,449 --> 00:07:57,310 祝你好运 262 00:07:57,310 --> 00:07:57,870 你知道的 263 00:07:57,870 --> 00:07:59,470 祝你在这件事上好运 264 00:07:59,470 --> 00:08:02,730 因为接下来几年的财报将极其惊人 265 00:08:02,730 --> 00:08:03,129 现在 266 00:08:03,129 --> 00:08:03,970 在这个时间节点 267 00:08:03,970 --> 00:08:06,689 Right Intuit仍然是非常弱势的股票 268 00:08:06,689 --> 00:08:09,149 试图维持在三百美元上方 269 00:08:09,149 --> 00:08:09,689 但兄弟 270 00:08:09,689 --> 00:08:13,189 看起来要走向Adobe的命运跌入两百 271 00:08:13,189 --> 00:08:15,000 Meta仍然是投资机会 272 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:15,720 这只股票 273 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,839 我相信早盘时是上涨的 274 00:08:17,839 --> 00:08:19,360 所以我们不会收红 275 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:20,060 但你知道的 276 00:08:20,060 --> 00:08:24,410 Mei是典型的寻找理由抛售的股票 277 00:08:24,410 --> 00:08:26,329 任何理由都行 278 00:08:26,329 --> 00:08:27,339 所以 279 00:08:27,339 --> 00:08:28,019 哦 280 00:08:28,019 --> 00:08:30,939 比特币的情况也很复杂 281 00:08:30,939 --> 00:08:33,788 这些都是需要注意的 282 00:08:33,788 --> 00:08:35,428 我们甚至有加密货币吗 283 00:08:35,428 --> 00:08:38,889 我不认为千禧X有加密货币 284 00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:39,860 让我们看看 285 00:08:39,860 --> 00:08:40,379 哦 286 00:08:40,379 --> 00:08:41,919 我们有ETF 287 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:45,399 但目前没有纯BTC定价 288 00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:46,798 没有千禧X 289 00:08:46,798 --> 00:08:48,219 或许我们也该加这个 290 00:08:48,219 --> 00:08:48,918 不知道 291 00:08:48,918 --> 00:08:50,298 但总之 292 00:08:50,298 --> 00:08:52,990 这就是我的一点看法 293 00:08:52,990 --> 00:08:55,789 如果我要买入其中一只股票五年 294 00:08:55,789 --> 00:08:59,408 我必须全仓投入所有资金和资产 295 00:08:59,408 --> 00:09:01,009 你逼我像杰里米一样 296 00:09:01,009 --> 00:09:02,208 你无法分散投资 297 00:09:02,208 --> 00:09:03,769 必须全仓押注其中一只股票 298 00:09:03,769 --> 00:09:04,369 不能卖出 299 00:09:04,369 --> 00:09:07,125 你必须在这五年内坚持下去 300 00:09:07,609 --> 00:09:09,208 顺便问一下我会选哪只股票 301 00:09:09,208 --> 00:09:10,568 如果你想关注我的X账号 302 00:09:10,568 --> 00:09:11,109 也就是说 303 00:09:11,109 --> 00:09:11,568 呃 304 00:09:11,568 --> 00:09:13,659 链接在下方描述区域 305 00:09:13,659 --> 00:09:14,740 你可以在那里关注我 306 00:09:14,740 --> 00:09:16,960 我相信有很多人会评论 307 00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:20,990 顺便说下私密群即将关闭新成员加入 308 00:09:20,990 --> 00:09:22,529 如果你想加入我的私密群 309 00:09:22,529 --> 00:09:23,960 评论区那里有相关信息 310 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:25,919 说它也链接在下方描述区域 311 00:09:25,919 --> 00:09:27,220 但我会在常见问题中固定说明 312 00:09:27,220 --> 00:09:29,000 获取所有课程大纲的权限 313 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:30,120 进入私密Discord通道 314 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,100 获取专属每周视频的聊天权限 315 00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:32,759 见证市场动向 316 00:09:32,759 --> 00:09:36,379 获取我四百万美元以上投资组合和千倍股网站的访问权 317 00:09:36,379 --> 00:09:36,980 所有这些资源 318 00:09:36,980 --> 00:09:39,240 因为我们即将关闭新成员加入 319 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:40,419 所以这个评论会被固定 320 00:09:40,419 --> 00:09:42,879 加入后我们会寄送实体会员卡 321 00:09:42,879 --> 00:09:44,360 所以再次提醒 322 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:45,360 下方固定评论已标注 323 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:46,639 在这几只股票中 324 00:09:46,639 --> 00:09:49,659 如果我要全仓投资五年 325 00:09:49,659 --> 00:09:53,179 你逼我选择这只股票 326 00:09:53,179 --> 00:09:54,860 我会选择 327 00:09:57,500 --> 00:09:59,419 这必须是 328 00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:02,919 嗯 329 00:10:02,919 --> 00:10:04,568 太难了 330 00:10:04,889 --> 00:10:06,928 你可能已经知道我考虑的两只股票 331 00:10:06,928 --> 00:10:09,208 因为我在权衡风险与回报 332 00:10:09,208 --> 00:10:10,129 所以我需要挑选股票 333 00:10:10,129 --> 00:10:13,960 力求高概率实现至少50%收益 334 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,179 未来几年可能达到150%以上 335 00:10:17,179 --> 00:10:20,559 但也不想让自己陷入风险 336 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,779 比如公司表现糟糕被颠覆 337 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:26,059 你逼我 338 00:10:26,059 --> 00:10:27,220 我得转向元宇宙 339 00:10:27,220 --> 00:10:27,559 哦 340 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,950 现在必须关注元宇宙 Meta仍然混乱 341 00:10:31,950 --> 00:10:36,539 因为他们疯狂烧钱且市场尚未理解 342 00:10:36,539 --> 00:10:37,799 但这种情况 343 00:10:37,799 --> 00:10:39,659 这只是短期现象 344 00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:41,120 我认为会在未来 345 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,419 六到十八个月内解决 346 00:10:42,419 --> 00:10:44,639 接下来五年只关注这些股票 347 00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:48,250 没错第二名和第一名非常接近 348 00:10:48,250 --> 00:10:49,750 亚马逊对吗 349 00:10:49,750 --> 00:10:50,429 亚马逊 350 00:10:53,690 --> 00:10:58,059 我估计亚马逊可能上涨七十到 351 00:11:00,379 --> 00:11:04,220 这就是我对它的看法，对吧，所以是的 352 00:11:04,220 --> 00:11:05,779 如果你告诉我好吧 353 00:11:05,779 --> 00:11:07,500 你不能投资科技巨头 354 00:11:07,500 --> 00:11:10,039 选另一只股票 355 00:11:15,799 --> 00:11:20,789 在美洲运通和 Celsius 之间选择 356 00:11:21,029 --> 00:11:22,629 Celsius 非常有吸引力 357 00:11:22,629 --> 00:11:23,350 因为 Celsius 358 00:11:23,350 --> 00:11:23,830 我相信 359 00:11:23,830 --> 00:11:27,889 五年后股价可能在一百到两百美元 360 00:11:27,889 --> 00:11:28,669 这就是我的看法 361 00:11:28,669 --> 00:11:30,000 五年后的情况 362 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,580 我们快进时间 363 00:11:31,580 --> 00:11:32,279 从今天起五年后 364 00:11:32,279 --> 00:11:34,159 我相信 Celsius 会涨到一百左右 365 00:11:34,159 --> 00:11:36,620 或者甚至涨到两百美元 366 00:11:36,620 --> 00:11:39,179 但从风险回报角度看 Celsius 非常有趣 367 00:11:39,179 --> 00:11:40,700 因为现在市场已经充分消化了 368 00:11:40,700 --> 00:11:42,330 股价在二十几美元 369 00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:46,269 此外他们现在有三个品牌 370 00:11:46,269 --> 00:11:47,610 不再依赖单一品牌 371 00:11:47,610 --> 00:11:48,250 他们有 Celsius 372 00:11:48,250 --> 00:11:52,659 Elloni 和 Rockstar 能乐持续畅销 373 00:11:52,659 --> 00:11:54,000 对咖啡因的需求 374 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:54,759 永远不会消失 375 00:11:54,759 --> 00:11:55,019 比如 376 00:11:55,019 --> 00:11:56,840 它会一直存在对吧 377 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:58,500 他们拥有百事分销网络 378 00:11:58,500 --> 00:12:00,559 风险已经大幅降低 379 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:01,559 并且已经 380 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,720 所有人都在寻找理由卖出这只股票 381 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,009 最终很难再下跌了 382 00:12:07,909 --> 00:12:09,610 我认为 Celsius 风险其实更低 383 00:12:09,610 --> 00:12:11,860 很多人也这么认为 384 00:12:11,860 --> 00:12:13,700 然后想到美洲运通 385 00:12:13,700 --> 00:12:19,279 现在美洲运通的市盈率可能在十五或十七倍 386 00:12:19,279 --> 00:12:22,519 让我看看美洲运通 387 00:12:22,519 --> 00:12:22,980 嗯 388 00:12:22,980 --> 00:12:28,100 这里显示美洲运通的前向市盈率约十五或十七 389 00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:32,919 这里显示十七点四倍 390 00:12:32,919 --> 00:12:37,370 这家公司未来几年应保持两位数每股收益增长 391 00:12:37,370 --> 00:12:40,279 未来收入增长 392 00:12:40,279 --> 00:12:41,820 明年收入增长预期七% 393 00:12:41,820 --> 00:12:44,159 预计在八到十%之间 394 00:12:44,159 --> 00:12:45,019 这是我的推测 395 00:12:45,019 --> 00:12:46,610 关于这一点 396 00:12:46,610 --> 00:12:49,850 预计每股收益增长两年复合增长率三 397 00:12:49,850 --> 00:12:50,389 大约三 398 00:12:50,389 --> 00:12:52,568 美国运通那边约两个百分点 399 00:12:52,568 --> 00:12:55,188 你的预期营收增长率十二个百分点 400 00:12:55,188 --> 00:12:56,688 这可能是个低估值 401 00:12:56,688 --> 00:12:58,659 正确的股息收益率 402 00:12:58,659 --> 00:12:58,940 或者 403 00:12:58,940 --> 00:12:59,980 你知道的不算特别高 404 00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:00,820 显然在这个案例中 405 00:13:00,820 --> 00:13:02,840 但他们的股息支付比率非常低 406 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:04,919 极低的股息支付比率 407 00:13:04,919 --> 00:13:07,559 这是关于美国运通需要记住的点 408 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:08,960 但这家公司非常出色 409 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:10,700 绝对是一家伟大的公司 410 00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:13,279 一个XP宝宝 411 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:17,620 让我们看看美国运通的图表 412 00:13:17,620 --> 00:13:18,080 你知道的 413 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,580 这就是现在一家公司应有的表现 414 00:13:20,580 --> 00:13:22,360 近期利润率有所下降 415 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,820 我认为这阶段已经见底了 416 00:13:24,820 --> 00:13:27,799 未来几个季度利润率将回升 417 00:13:27,799 --> 00:13:31,240 每股收益预计将大幅增长 418 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:32,899 对此我毫无怀疑 419 00:13:32,899 --> 00:13:35,600 所以是的 420 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,019 美国运通买入 421 00:13:37,019 --> 00:13:38,080 但你知道的 422 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:38,899 现在是摄氏度 423 00:13:38,899 --> 00:13:41,620 让我展示我对Celsius的预测 424 00:13:41,620 --> 00:13:43,909 你们就能明白原因 425 00:13:43,909 --> 00:13:47,309 我相信这只股票前景惊人 426 00:13:47,309 --> 00:13:47,850 对啊 427 00:13:47,850 --> 00:13:51,979 我实际加载之前的Celsius数据 428 00:13:51,979 --> 00:13:55,938 在Celsius加载数据 429 00:13:55,938 --> 00:13:57,219 准备好了吗 430 00:13:59,340 --> 00:14:00,240 看看这个 431 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,399 我的Celsius基准预测 432 00:14:03,399 --> 00:14:04,059 没错 433 00:14:04,059 --> 00:14:05,860 年营收增长百分之十 434 00:14:05,860 --> 00:14:08,100 这在2027到2030年算什么 435 00:14:08,100 --> 00:14:09,818 凭借他们旗下的三个品牌 436 00:14:09,818 --> 00:14:11,599 这没什么 437 00:14:11,599 --> 00:14:14,558 他们可能每年小幅提价所有产品 438 00:14:14,558 --> 00:14:17,830 因此可能获得几%的营收增长 439 00:14:17,830 --> 00:14:21,450 然后继续拓展国内分销 440 00:14:21,450 --> 00:14:22,809 开拓国际市场销售 441 00:14:22,809 --> 00:14:25,929 我说百分之十这太简单了 442 00:14:25,929 --> 00:14:27,509 这就是柠檬挤压 443 00:14:27,509 --> 00:14:28,429 净利润增长 444 00:14:28,429 --> 00:14:30,139 百分之二十没什么 445 00:14:30,139 --> 00:14:32,840 像 Celsius 这样的公司仍处于早期阶段 446 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:34,340 进入十七 447 00:14:34,340 --> 00:14:35,610 没什么特别的 448 00:14:35,610 --> 00:14:36,610 如果我们看一下 449 00:14:36,610 --> 00:14:39,429 我们马上来看可口可乐 450 00:14:39,429 --> 00:14:41,850 然后我们来看 Monster 的净利润率 451 00:14:41,850 --> 00:14:43,100 嗯 452 00:14:43,100 --> 00:14:44,779 你知道我们在谈论一个孩子 453 00:14:44,779 --> 00:14:46,039 我可能得到一个复合 454 00:14:46,039 --> 00:14:47,340 我相信我要得到一个复合 455 00:14:47,340 --> 00:14:51,330 年复合增长率，Celsius 像四十个百分点，四十个百分点 456 00:14:51,330 --> 00:14:52,450 可能更高 457 00:14:52,450 --> 00:14:54,429 我们可能在谈五十个百分点 458 00:14:54,429 --> 00:14:56,279 你知道我可能错了 459 00:14:56,279 --> 00:14:58,000 但我不认为我在这里错了 460 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,240 我非常了解这些饮料公司 461 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:00,639 好的 462 00:15:00,639 --> 00:15:05,059 我们继续输入可口可乐并查看 463 00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:09,110 看这里的净利润率 464 00:15:10,149 --> 00:15:14,090 看可口可乐的净利润率现在接近百分之二点八 465 00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:17,629 再次，Celsius 连接近这个数字都做不到 466 00:15:17,629 --> 00:15:21,049 我只在2030年达到百分之十七 467 00:15:21,049 --> 00:15:24,450 这甚至不接近可口可乐的水平 468 00:15:24,450 --> 00:15:25,940 对吧 469 00:15:25,940 --> 00:15:28,799 让我们看看 Monster 470 00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:31,679 Monster 饮料公司 Monster 471 00:15:31,679 --> 00:15:32,840 更成熟的公司 472 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,139 看他们的净利润率百分之二点三 473 00:15:35,139 --> 00:15:40,909 所以当你看到我在2030年实现百分之十七的净利润率 474 00:15:40,909 --> 00:15:42,429 这不是疯狂的数字 475 00:15:42,429 --> 00:15:44,960 其实一点也不 impressive 476 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,519 令人印象深刻的数字应该是 477 00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:50,190 如果到2030年净利润率能达到百分之二十以上 478 00:15:50,190 --> 00:15:53,370 因为这样看起来他们正在接近 Monster 级别的公司 479 00:15:53,370 --> 00:15:55,509 他们正在走向可口可乐级别的公司 480 00:15:55,509 --> 00:15:56,990 对的，Monster 481 00:15:56,990 --> 00:15:57,350 顺便说一句 482 00:15:57,350 --> 00:16:04,409 市值略低于九十亿美元，看看 Celsius 仍然多么小 483 00:16:04,409 --> 00:16:05,309 从市值来看 484 00:16:05,309 --> 00:16:07,820 与 Monster 的七亿美元相比 485 00:16:07,820 --> 00:16:10,899 整个公司就是这样 486 00:16:13,479 --> 00:16:13,879 好的 487 00:16:13,879 --> 00:16:16,418 今天我买了哪些股票呢 488 00:16:16,418 --> 00:16:17,318 哦糟糕 489 00:16:17,318 --> 00:16:20,759 顺便说一下，在开始之前有八万九千美元 490 00:16:20,759 --> 00:16:24,629 市场中有两件事真正让我害怕 491 00:16:24,629 --> 00:16:25,669 在分享股票之前 492 00:16:25,669 --> 00:16:26,110 我买了 493 00:16:26,110 --> 00:16:26,490 好的 494 00:16:26,490 --> 00:16:30,989 真正让我担心的两只股票 495 00:16:30,989 --> 00:16:35,600 一种情况是，我的股票估值非常高，我就像 496 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:36,399 天啊 497 00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:38,159 这可能会成为未来几年的死钱股 498 00:16:38,159 --> 00:16:39,620 接下来好几年都不会有变化 499 00:16:39,620 --> 00:16:42,080 因为估值已经变得非常昂贵 500 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,259 没错，这让我感到害怕，这促使我 501 00:16:45,259 --> 00:16:46,220 最终 502 00:16:46,428 --> 00:16:47,089 你知道的 503 00:16:47,089 --> 00:16:48,489 我得卖出一些股份了 504 00:16:48,489 --> 00:16:54,480 另一个让我害怕的情况是股票表现极差 505 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,240 不是公司的基本面 506 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,909 而是股价已经跌得很低 507 00:16:59,909 --> 00:17:03,019 我觉得这只股票即将迎来暴涨 508 00:17:03,019 --> 00:17:04,420 我开始产生恐惧错失机会的情绪 509 00:17:04,420 --> 00:17:07,059 因为这只股票已经下跌了50%到70% 510 00:17:07,059 --> 00:17:10,170 不管公司基本面如何，现在都比以往更好 511 00:17:10,170 --> 00:17:11,630 并且即将进一步改善 512 00:17:11,630 --> 00:17:15,828 估值非常吸引人，我正在做预测 513 00:17:15,828 --> 00:17:18,648 这里显示出30%、40%、50%的复合年增长率 514 00:17:18,648 --> 00:17:19,659 嗯 515 00:17:19,659 --> 00:17:22,259 这让我感到害怕，我需要赶紧行动 516 00:17:22,259 --> 00:17:24,439 在股价上涨前买入这只股票 517 00:17:24,439 --> 00:17:28,509 因为我不认为未来还能以这些价格买入 518 00:17:28,589 --> 00:17:29,470 一年后 519 00:17:29,470 --> 00:17:30,069 两年后 520 00:17:30,069 --> 00:17:31,109 三年后对吧 521 00:17:31,109 --> 00:17:33,909 这促使我进行了这次大额买入 522 00:17:33,909 --> 00:17:36,128 今天买入了89,000美元 523 00:17:36,128 --> 00:17:37,368 我买了哪些股票 524 00:17:37,368 --> 00:17:40,730 购买了这三只股票完成此次操作 525 00:17:40,730 --> 00:17:41,970 之前买了私有化狗狗集团 526 00:17:41,970 --> 00:17:46,190 买入933股SOI科技 527 00:17:46,190 --> 00:17:47,809 每股17.13美元 528 00:17:47,809 --> 00:17:50,170 目前还在二十美元以下 529 00:17:50,170 --> 00:17:52,329 你必须让我参与 530 00:17:52,329 --> 00:17:54,289 我说真的 531 00:17:54,289 --> 00:17:55,789 这是我开始买入的股票之一 532 00:17:55,789 --> 00:17:57,589 当时股价还在个位数 533 00:17:57,589 --> 00:17:58,849 我持有SOFA的股份 534 00:17:58,849 --> 00:17:59,869 当时股价6美元 535 00:17:59,869 --> 00:18:03,519 没错，公司基本面大幅提升 536 00:18:03,519 --> 00:18:04,539 从我以6美元买入时起 537 00:18:04,539 --> 00:18:05,180 当时股价6美元 538 00:18:05,180 --> 00:18:07,500 真是令人惊叹 539 00:18:07,500 --> 00:18:08,599 这是一家了不起的公司 540 00:18:08,599 --> 00:18:09,660 Elf Beauty 541 00:18:09,660 --> 00:18:12,900 今天买入了700股Elf Beauty 542 00:18:12,900 --> 00:18:14,339 每股50.64美元 543 00:18:14,339 --> 00:18:15,839 我说啊 544 00:18:15,839 --> 00:18:19,019 Elf Beauty现在50美元，太棒了 545 00:18:19,019 --> 00:18:21,539 我们以解放日价格购入了这些 546 00:18:21,539 --> 00:18:22,799 那时候价格像四十九美元 547 00:18:22,799 --> 00:18:25,420 去年解放日前后五十美元左右 548 00:18:25,420 --> 00:18:27,250 没错，正是那时的行情 549 00:18:27,250 --> 00:18:29,650 那时关税飙升，大家都在讨论 550 00:18:29,650 --> 00:18:30,089 天啊 551 00:18:30,089 --> 00:18:32,630 中国加征了一百五十%关税等等 552 00:18:32,630 --> 00:18:35,019 所有问题已大幅缓解 553 00:18:35,019 --> 00:18:37,619 因此Elf的关税状况好多了 554 00:18:37,619 --> 00:18:41,140 这家公司未来十年增长潜力巨大 555 00:18:41,140 --> 00:18:42,000 简直不可思议 556 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,619 我得以以这个价格入手这家公司 557 00:18:45,619 --> 00:18:47,259 整个Elf的市值 558 00:18:47,259 --> 00:18:48,859 现在估计不到三亿美元 559 00:18:48,859 --> 00:18:49,720 目前时间节点 560 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:54,240 我们先看看Elf on the Shelf 561 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:54,859 或者说 562 00:18:54,859 --> 00:18:55,920 Elf从货架上掉了下来 563 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,119 当我今天买入时 564 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,240 市值可能低于三亿美元没错 565 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:01,269 这太疯狂了 566 00:19:01,269 --> 00:19:03,230 我必须买入Elf股份 567 00:19:03,230 --> 00:19:04,549 然后我进行了大幅加仓 568 00:19:04,549 --> 00:19:05,670 今天买入Celsius 569 00:19:05,670 --> 00:19:07,659 我买入了十三百五十股 570 00:19:07,659 --> 00:19:10,578 每股支付了二七七四美分 571 00:19:10,578 --> 00:19:11,618 你可以知道 572 00:19:11,618 --> 00:19:13,179 让我展示Elf的预测数据 573 00:19:13,179 --> 00:19:19,140 你就能明白为何我对这些股票感到FOMO 574 00:19:19,140 --> 00:19:19,539 你知道的 575 00:19:19,539 --> 00:19:23,259 大多数人产生FOMO是因为股价大幅上涨 576 00:19:23,259 --> 00:19:23,660 他们说 577 00:19:23,660 --> 00:19:24,180 天啊 578 00:19:24,180 --> 00:19:27,900 我错过了赚钱机会 579 00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:30,730 因为股价被严重低估 580 00:19:30,730 --> 00:19:32,230 定价如此离谱 581 00:19:32,230 --> 00:19:35,750 各位还记得我当日买入Meta的八万八千美元 582 00:19:35,750 --> 00:19:37,769 在二十二十二年 583 00:19:37,769 --> 00:19:38,980 当时股价约八十八九四 584 00:19:38,980 --> 00:19:41,259 或九十美元左右 585 00:19:41,259 --> 00:19:42,180 或者具体数字 586 00:19:42,180 --> 00:19:43,220 没错 587 00:19:43,220 --> 00:19:46,380 当时我对Medic产生了强烈FOMO 588 00:19:46,380 --> 00:19:47,240 因为我觉得 589 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:48,619 我简直不敢相信 590 00:19:48,619 --> 00:19:50,180 Meta股价跌破百元 591 00:19:50,180 --> 00:19:51,380 这太荒谬了 592 00:19:51,380 --> 00:19:53,819 没错，我做了Meta的FOMO操作 593 00:19:53,819 --> 00:19:55,980 现在我对Celsius和Elf也有同感 594 00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:57,980 我正在做类似的FOMO买入 595 00:19:57,980 --> 00:20:00,409 因为我是这样的，这就像 596 00:20:00,409 --> 00:20:02,169 我不知道该怎么解释 597 00:20:02,169 --> 00:20:02,669 这也太傻了 598 00:20:02,669 --> 00:20:03,868 这就是正确的 599 00:20:03,868 --> 00:20:06,308 看看我对精灵的基准案例 600 00:20:06,308 --> 00:20:08,828 15%的营收增长 601 00:20:08,828 --> 00:20:10,068 30%的净利润增长 602 00:20:10,068 --> 00:20:12,500 这些对精灵来说未来几年并非难事 603 00:20:12,500 --> 00:20:15,740 净利润率仅在20-30%间提升10% 604 00:20:16,779 --> 00:20:18,579 没错，如果你在扩大收入 605 00:20:18,579 --> 00:20:19,579 15%的净利润 606 00:20:19,579 --> 00:20:20,779 30%到35% 607 00:20:20,779 --> 00:20:21,779 这太简单了 608 00:20:21,779 --> 00:20:22,740 这就像柠檬榨汁器 609 00:20:22,740 --> 00:20:23,660 我们再次在谈论 610 00:20:23,660 --> 00:20:24,619 复合增长速率 611 00:20:24,619 --> 00:20:26,539 深陷30%区间 612 00:20:27,140 --> 00:20:29,740 这就是我现在为何疯狂买入这些股票 613 00:20:29,740 --> 00:20:30,940 因为我只是在观察它们 614 00:20:30,940 --> 00:20:34,910 我就像这太蠢了 615 00:20:34,910 --> 00:20:36,170 我不知道该怎么形容 616 00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:38,150 像精灵和赛乐斯的定价方式 617 00:20:38,150 --> 00:20:40,750 今年简直不理智 618 00:20:40,750 --> 00:20:42,390 这根本就不 619 00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:44,469 而我认为我们会看到 620 00:20:44,469 --> 00:20:46,909 我不觉得你得等五年才能认可 621 00:20:46,909 --> 00:20:47,469 然后你会说 622 00:20:47,469 --> 00:20:47,648 哦 623 00:20:47,648 --> 00:20:50,189 精灵在2026年被定为50美元 624 00:20:50,189 --> 00:20:51,109 这太蠢了 625 00:20:51,109 --> 00:20:54,150 赛乐斯在2026年20多美元 626 00:20:54,150 --> 00:20:54,710 这也太蠢了 627 00:20:54,710 --> 00:20:55,470 我简直 628 00:20:55,470 --> 00:20:57,430 甚至一年或两年后回看 629 00:20:57,430 --> 00:20:58,490 你会说 630 00:20:58,490 --> 00:21:01,329 他们怎么在20多卖赛乐斯 631 00:21:01,329 --> 00:21:02,450 他们怎么在卖精灵 632 00:21:02,450 --> 00:21:03,549 50美元啊 633 00:21:03,549 --> 00:21:04,710 这就是我的看法 634 00:21:04,710 --> 00:21:06,559 所以嗯 635 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,099 这就是市场的形成 636 00:21:08,099 --> 00:21:08,640 没错 637 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,119 这就是市场的形成 638 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,660 我相信真相终将显现 639 00:21:13,660 --> 00:21:17,150 我们继续回应今日华尔街 640 00:21:17,150 --> 00:21:18,420 街上的评论 641 00:21:18,420 --> 00:21:19,660 你确实有扩散迹象 642 00:21:19,660 --> 00:21:23,380 金融、可选消费、工业和医疗板块四小时 643 00:21:23,380 --> 00:21:28,099 过去一个月资金正从科技板块最大赢家流出 644 00:21:28,099 --> 00:21:30,220 许多芯片股近期表现疲软 645 00:21:32,140 --> 00:21:36,140 稍后我们可以分析单个博通和CrowdStrike 646 00:21:36,140 --> 00:21:40,079 但今天市场的整体构成 647 00:21:40,079 --> 00:21:40,539 你觉得怎么样 648 00:21:40,539 --> 00:21:41,500 你从中得到什么信息 649 00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:42,359 哦我觉得 650 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:43,059 别急着下结论 651 00:21:43,059 --> 00:21:44,380 稍后我们再讨论一次翻转和煎饼 652 00:21:44,380 --> 00:21:47,650 整个关于博通的情况 653 00:21:47,650 --> 00:21:50,250 博通昨日触及52周新高 654 00:21:50,588 --> 00:21:51,229 所以是的 655 00:21:51,229 --> 00:21:51,648 它下跌了 656 00:21:51,648 --> 00:21:53,989 我不知道下跌了14%的原因 657 00:21:53,989 --> 00:21:55,528 或者到底下跌了多少，博通 658 00:21:55,528 --> 00:21:56,288 已经恢复平静 659 00:21:56,288 --> 00:21:58,029 让我们转到多巴胺页面 660 00:21:58,029 --> 00:21:59,809 你们看过千禧X的多巴胺页面吗 661 00:21:59,809 --> 00:22:00,289 顺便说一句 662 00:22:00,289 --> 00:22:01,869 你可以按涨幅排序 663 00:22:01,869 --> 00:22:02,690 跌幅 664 00:22:02,690 --> 00:22:07,589 然后我们还有更大的板块 665 00:22:07,589 --> 00:22:09,349 或者当我需要添加新板块时 666 00:22:09,349 --> 00:22:09,789 因为我觉得 667 00:22:09,789 --> 00:22:11,269 我想添加超过六个观察列表 668 00:22:11,269 --> 00:22:12,390 所以我准备添加 669 00:22:12,390 --> 00:22:14,799 现在我们有九个潜在观察列表 670 00:22:14,799 --> 00:22:15,299 但总之 671 00:22:15,299 --> 00:22:15,539 总之 672 00:22:15,539 --> 00:22:18,130 博通下跌了12.5% 673 00:22:18,130 --> 00:22:19,789 它昨日刚创52周新高 674 00:22:19,789 --> 00:22:21,789 12.5%的跌幅让我睡不着 675 00:22:21,789 --> 00:22:27,970 你可能正在见证现有牛市的首次重大考验 676 00:22:27,970 --> 00:22:31,509 在科技领域AI革命持续进行 677 00:22:31,509 --> 00:22:36,269 这一叙事将在今年夏季和秋季面临更多挑战 678 00:22:36,269 --> 00:22:39,289 随着大量IPO即将涌现 679 00:22:39,289 --> 00:22:41,140 我们有大量的支出 680 00:22:41,140 --> 00:22:44,380 以及公开和私募市场的投资 681 00:22:44,380 --> 00:22:48,148 我认为投资者现在正努力避免被套住 682 00:22:48,148 --> 00:22:50,868 没错，很多人在回顾1999年 683 00:22:50,868 --> 00:22:54,630 大家都在讨论这是否重演1999年 684 00:22:54,630 --> 00:22:56,430 我认为关键区别在于 685 00:22:56,430 --> 00:23:00,349 零售投资者能比过去更快行动 686 00:23:00,349 --> 00:23:03,670 他们对市场的了解也远超当年 687 00:23:03,670 --> 00:23:04,470 所以我认为 688 00:23:04,470 --> 00:23:05,740 我们正在看到 689 00:23:05,740 --> 00:23:08,940 许多人努力站对队 690 00:23:08,940 --> 00:23:12,339 我不认为这表明我们已到达顶部 691 00:23:12,339 --> 00:23:13,819 现在该敲钟了 692 00:23:13,819 --> 00:23:15,140 但我认为我们将看到 693 00:23:15,140 --> 00:23:18,960 今年将持续出现这种涨跌波动 694 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,819 正如我们有这些名为入选的大型活动 695 00:23:21,819 --> 00:23:23,400 如果你今天看看行情板 696 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,440 你知道许多最大的月度赢家 697 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,079 正如我刚才所说 698 00:23:28,079 --> 00:23:31,380 你知道那些群体冲击和帕洛阿尔托 699 00:23:31,380 --> 00:23:31,990 至于 700 00:23:34,589 --> 00:23:37,949 在过去一个月仍上涨近百分之五十 701 00:23:37,949 --> 00:23:41,969 大家都知道芯片股的情况 702 00:23:41,969 --> 00:23:45,249 AMD在过去的五个月 703 00:23:45,249 --> 00:23:46,569 上涨了百分之三 704 00:23:48,450 --> 00:23:49,230 祝贺 705 00:23:49,230 --> 00:23:52,369 所有AMD和D的股东 706 00:23:52,369 --> 00:23:53,049 哦是的 707 00:23:53,049 --> 00:23:53,529 宝贝 708 00:23:53,529 --> 00:23:54,289 我喜欢 709 00:23:54,289 --> 00:23:55,009 现在让我们回放 710 00:23:55,009 --> 00:23:56,619 再听一遍 711 00:23:56,740 --> 00:23:59,000 AMD在过去一个月 712 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,190 上涨百分之五十三 713 00:24:01,190 --> 00:24:06,180 美光在过去一个月上涨百分之七十五 714 00:24:06,180 --> 00:24:08,640 因此一些资金从这些领域流出 715 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:13,799 并在其他行业中找到新去处 716 00:24:13,799 --> 00:24:21,089 这对寻求更健康市场的人来说是个积极信号 717 00:24:21,089 --> 00:24:22,950 我完全 718 00:24:24,009 --> 00:24:26,589 别急，稍等片刻 719 00:24:26,589 --> 00:24:29,839 这就是人们常犯的错误 720 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:31,400 他们看到美光 721 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,640 看到AMD单日下跌 722 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:34,420 单周下跌 723 00:24:34,420 --> 00:24:35,559 连续几天下跌 724 00:24:35,559 --> 00:24:36,180 他们会说 725 00:24:36,180 --> 00:24:36,420 哦 726 00:24:36,420 --> 00:24:39,769 这就该转向其他领域了 727 00:24:40,089 --> 00:24:42,089 需要看到这些股票持续下跌 728 00:24:42,089 --> 00:24:47,089 才能判断其上涨趋势结束 729 00:24:47,089 --> 00:24:50,159 不能轻易断定其上涨结束 730 00:24:50,159 --> 00:24:55,069 直到我们大致确定峰值和每股收益 731 00:24:55,069 --> 00:24:56,410 以及对应年份 732 00:24:56,410 --> 00:24:58,490 在没有这些信息时无法判断 733 00:24:58,490 --> 00:24:59,029 目前 734 00:24:59,869 --> 00:25:01,190 作为AMD股东 735 00:25:01,190 --> 00:25:03,789 我无法预测AMD的每股收益何时见顶 736 00:25:03,789 --> 00:25:05,849 在2028年、2029年或2030年 737 00:25:05,849 --> 00:25:06,349 我们 738 00:25:06,349 --> 00:25:07,390 我们尚未到那个阶段 739 00:25:07,390 --> 00:25:08,089 目前 740 00:25:08,089 --> 00:25:10,289 同样适用于美光 741 00:25:10,289 --> 00:25:11,730 我无法确定 742 00:25:11,730 --> 00:25:14,159 美光的每股收益何时会见顶在2028年 743 00:25:14,159 --> 00:25:15,558 或者如果它要在29点见顶 744 00:25:15,558 --> 00:25:16,898 如果它要在23点开始讨论 745 00:25:16,898 --> 00:25:17,338 就是说 746 00:25:17,338 --> 00:25:17,699 呃 747 00:25:17,699 --> 00:25:18,920 非常值得商榷 748 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:20,700 一旦我们有更多清晰度 749 00:25:20,700 --> 00:25:23,240 那时你才能开始讨论这些股票见顶 750 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,359 但我们短期内得不到这种清晰度 751 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:26,680 你是最早的 752 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,980 你大概会在明年得到这种清晰度 753 00:25:28,980 --> 00:25:33,348 这类股票的衰落 754 00:25:33,348 --> 00:25:36,128 尤其是AMD被严重夸大了 755 00:25:36,128 --> 00:25:37,788 比如看到一个下跌日 756 00:25:37,788 --> 00:25:38,388 啊 757 00:25:38,388 --> 00:25:40,034 这就是AMD的结局 758 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:41,519 AMD正在暴跌 759 00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:42,559 股价达到一千美元 760 00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:44,349 然后你得到什么 761 00:25:44,349 --> 00:25:45,349 正是AMD 762 00:25:45,349 --> 00:25:46,029 不仅仅是五百美元 763 00:25:46,029 --> 00:25:46,809 我们以为它已经见顶 764 00:25:46,809 --> 00:25:48,329 然后它涨到一千美元兄弟 765 00:25:48,329 --> 00:25:50,410 六个月可能迅速发生 766 00:25:50,410 --> 00:25:51,259 嗯 767 00:25:51,259 --> 00:25:53,740 这些股票反复证明 768 00:25:53,740 --> 00:25:54,359 没错 769 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:55,700 终将迎来清算日 770 00:25:55,700 --> 00:25:56,940 对美光和AMD而言 771 00:25:56,940 --> 00:25:58,339 这些类型的股票 772 00:25:58,339 --> 00:26:02,430 但这些小波动是否预示转折 773 00:26:02,430 --> 00:26:03,109 我的意思是 774 00:26:03,109 --> 00:26:04,390 这就是整理阶段 775 00:26:05,950 --> 00:26:07,549 这些抛物线走势已出现 776 00:26:07,549 --> 00:26:09,269 它们必须稍作回调 777 00:26:09,269 --> 00:26:12,609 然后稳定才能继续上涨 778 00:26:12,609 --> 00:26:14,890 这种整理是健康的 779 00:26:14,890 --> 00:26:17,049 因为它为下一波上涨铺路 780 00:26:17,049 --> 00:26:18,609 我想明确区分 781 00:26:18,609 --> 00:26:21,049 我看不到任何理由认为 782 00:26:21,049 --> 00:26:23,109 近期会出现修正行情 783 00:26:23,109 --> 00:26:27,109 无论是整体市场、半导体还是科技板块 784 00:26:27,109 --> 00:26:29,190 要发生真正修正 785 00:26:29,190 --> 00:26:32,190 必须现在出现大幅情绪转变 786 00:26:32,190 --> 00:26:35,750 比如伊朗局势显著恶化 787 00:26:35,750 --> 00:26:36,789 但现实是 788 00:26:36,789 --> 00:26:39,109 这个市场已对 789 00:26:39,109 --> 00:26:40,650 波斯湾局势麻木 790 00:26:40,650 --> 00:26:42,930 对西德克萨斯原油麻木 791 00:26:42,930 --> 00:26:46,279 中间油价约在每桶一百美元 792 00:26:46,279 --> 00:26:48,240 这种整理是健康的 793 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,180 几乎不可能出现修正 794 00:26:50,180 --> 00:26:52,140 但我想让大家考虑 795 00:26:52,140 --> 00:26:56,190 如果你像我们大多数人一样在投资组合中有这些抛物线形态 796 00:26:56,190 --> 00:26:58,470 现在是进行风险管理的好时机 797 00:26:58,470 --> 00:27:00,089 不要卖掉全部 798 00:27:00,089 --> 00:27:02,569 但调整部分并转向其他领域 799 00:27:02,569 --> 00:27:03,750 我认为这就是正在发生的事情 800 00:27:03,750 --> 00:27:04,230 斯科特 801 00:27:04,230 --> 00:27:07,420 我认为这就是今天表现优异的原因 802 00:27:07,420 --> 00:27:08,339 来自等权重策略 803 00:27:08,339 --> 00:27:10,859 标普500与纳斯达克对比 804 00:27:10,859 --> 00:27:12,420 或道琼斯与标普对比 805 00:27:12,420 --> 00:27:14,160 500指数轮动是健康的 806 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:14,740 如果我说的话 807 00:27:14,740 --> 00:27:16,420 科技股今天并没有惨淡表现 808 00:27:16,420 --> 00:27:17,339 正如我之前所说 809 00:27:17,339 --> 00:27:19,019 涨幅最大的领域 810 00:27:19,019 --> 00:27:19,519 那些 811 00:27:19,519 --> 00:27:19,880 你知道的 812 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,880 许多抛物线走势正在释放部分泡沫 813 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,079 但今天微软出现了买入 814 00:27:26,079 --> 00:27:27,920 字母股在视频领域也出现了买入 815 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,519 这些尚未交易活跃 816 00:27:29,519 --> 00:27:30,039 整体上涨 817 00:27:30,039 --> 00:27:31,339 上涨1.5% 818 00:27:31,339 --> 00:27:33,279 市场其他领域的涨幅 819 00:27:33,279 --> 00:27:35,079 过去一个月科技板块其他部分 820 00:27:35,079 --> 00:27:37,279 这些领域的收益更突出 821 00:27:37,279 --> 00:27:38,980 因此也没有意外 822 00:27:38,980 --> 00:27:40,279 资金回流是正常的 823 00:27:40,279 --> 00:27:44,450 趋势并未因想象而受损 824 00:27:44,450 --> 00:27:46,250 只是关注芯片领域 825 00:27:46,250 --> 00:27:49,519 可能博通昨晚启动了 826 00:27:49,519 --> 00:27:51,079 可能CrowdStrike 827 00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:53,500 在软件部分启动了 828 00:27:53,500 --> 00:27:57,289 但趋势依然稳固 829 00:27:57,289 --> 00:28:01,509 只是科技板块稍有波动 830 00:28:01,509 --> 00:28:01,970 是的 831 00:28:01,970 --> 00:28:02,690 我同意 832 00:28:02,690 --> 00:28:03,490 行动中的趋势 833 00:28:03,490 --> 00:28:05,410 这是健康的轮动 834 00:28:05,410 --> 00:28:06,400 好的 835 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,539 让我展示一个重要内容 836 00:28:09,539 --> 00:28:10,119 好的 837 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,259 你买了Palantir吗 838 00:28:13,259 --> 00:28:15,039 当我以7美元买入Palantir时 839 00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:15,579 恭喜 840 00:28:15,579 --> 00:28:16,099 如果你买了 841 00:28:16,099 --> 00:28:17,019 你赚了不少钱 842 00:28:17,019 --> 00:28:19,930 没错 但那些未持有Palantir的朋友们 843 00:28:19,930 --> 00:28:21,829 和我们跑吧，这太疯狂了 844 00:28:21,829 --> 00:28:23,130 我想给你展示一下 845 00:28:23,130 --> 00:28:23,509 好的 846 00:28:23,509 --> 00:28:25,450 这就是帕兰蒂尔 847 00:28:25,450 --> 00:28:26,990 这里七美元的帕兰蒂尔 848 00:28:26,990 --> 00:28:28,430 六美元对吧 849 00:28:28,430 --> 00:28:30,390 你本可以用六美元买到帕兰蒂尔 850 00:28:30,390 --> 00:28:32,150 每股七美元 851 00:28:32,809 --> 00:28:33,269 好的 852 00:28:33,269 --> 00:28:36,539 所以帕兰蒂尔飙升至九美元 853 00:28:36,539 --> 00:28:38,900 然后又跌回七美元 854 00:28:38,900 --> 00:28:40,259 你觉得所有涨势都结束了 855 00:28:40,259 --> 00:28:43,779 接着从七美元涨到我们现在的价位 856 00:28:43,779 --> 00:28:47,769 十六美元然后又下跌，你不禁 857 00:28:47,769 --> 00:28:47,890 啊 858 00:28:47,890 --> 00:28:48,450 它继续上涨 859 00:28:48,450 --> 00:28:51,190 然后一路涨到十八美元，你惊叹 860 00:28:51,190 --> 00:28:51,369 啊 861 00:28:51,369 --> 00:28:52,410 这次涨势应该结束了 862 00:28:52,410 --> 00:28:53,910 然后跌至十四美元 863 00:28:53,910 --> 00:28:59,549 接着涨到二十美元又回落，你心想 864 00:28:59,549 --> 00:28:59,670 啊 865 00:28:59,670 --> 00:29:00,329 涨势应该结束了 866 00:29:00,329 --> 00:29:02,400 随后又涨到二十五美元 867 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,720 然后跌回二十美元，你感叹 868 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:05,880 啊 869 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,000 涨势大概结束了 870 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,259 接着一路涨到二十八美元 871 00:29:09,259 --> 00:29:09,559 你喊道 872 00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:11,519 现在该判断是否结束了吧 873 00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:11,680 是的 874 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:12,039 已经结束了 875 00:29:12,039 --> 00:29:13,160 已经跌至二十五美元 876 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,138 然后涨到八十美元，你惊呼 877 00:29:16,138 --> 00:29:16,858 啊，这次涨势 878 00:29:16,858 --> 00:29:17,898 这波涨势太疯狂了 879 00:29:17,898 --> 00:29:18,219 没错 880 00:29:18,219 --> 00:29:19,798 然后又跌至六十七美元 881 00:29:19,798 --> 00:29:20,298 你喊道 882 00:29:20,298 --> 00:29:22,410 啊，看来涨势结束了 883 00:29:22,410 --> 00:29:25,809 接着涨到一百十八美元，你惊叹 884 00:29:25,809 --> 00:29:28,140 啊，这太疯狂了 885 00:29:28,140 --> 00:29:29,619 然后又跌至七十五美元 886 00:29:29,619 --> 00:29:31,599 你喊道，看看你们这些疯子 887 00:29:31,599 --> 00:29:34,559 这波涨势结束了，早该卖出的 888 00:29:34,559 --> 00:29:38,980 接着从七十五涨到两百 889 00:29:39,259 --> 00:29:40,039 好的 890 00:29:40,039 --> 00:29:43,099 当这些股票开始飙升时 891 00:29:43,099 --> 00:29:46,940 千万不要假设涨势已结束 892 00:29:46,940 --> 00:29:48,259 因为我可以展示英伟达的例子 893 00:29:48,259 --> 00:29:49,400 我可以向你展示远见之镜 894 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,019 当某些特殊公司处于特殊行情时 895 00:29:52,019 --> 00:29:54,599 它们的商业模式发生了根本性转变 896 00:29:54,599 --> 00:29:57,740 这正是美光和AMD的现状 897 00:29:57,740 --> 00:29:58,680 两者都具备根本性变化 898 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,150 而AMD从长期来看甚至更好 899 00:30:02,150 --> 00:30:04,190 得益于GPU需求和CPU需求 900 00:30:04,190 --> 00:30:06,430 所以它们处于完美状态 901 00:30:06,430 --> 00:30:07,778 但就像 902 00:30:07,778 --> 00:30:08,558 不要妄下结论 903 00:30:08,558 --> 00:30:09,479 就像行情持续上涨时 904 00:30:09,479 --> 00:30:11,739 因为价格可能几天或几周甚至一个月下跌 905 00:30:11,739 --> 00:30:13,490 这纯粹是投机游戏 906 00:30:13,490 --> 00:30:15,950 当某些特殊公司处于特殊行情时 907 00:30:15,950 --> 00:30:18,769 且商业模式发生根本性变化 908 00:30:18,769 --> 00:30:22,250 最终行情总会见顶回落 909 00:30:22,250 --> 00:30:28,490 但你需要判断顶部和增长速率 910 00:30:28,490 --> 00:30:32,429 或需确定每股收益何时见顶 911 00:30:32,429 --> 00:30:35,138 目前两者都无法准确判断 912 00:30:35,138 --> 00:30:37,519 AMD营收的峰值点 913 00:30:37,519 --> 00:30:40,259 增长速率仍遥遥无期 914 00:30:40,259 --> 00:30:44,690 至于 915 00:30:46,799 --> 00:30:49,279 年度每股收益峰值 916 00:30:49,279 --> 00:30:49,960 我喜欢 917 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:50,500 我不确定 918 00:30:50,500 --> 00:30:51,519 可能达到28 919 00:30:51,519 --> 00:30:52,319 也可能29 920 00:30:52,319 --> 00:30:54,240 可能在23到30之间 921 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,240 我们对此毫无清晰判断 922 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,039 现在我们只知道会继续上涨 923 00:30:59,039 --> 00:31:00,089 正如吉姆所指出的 924 00:31:00,089 --> 00:31:01,210 你需要保持这种 925 00:31:01,210 --> 00:31:02,329 并巩固优势 926 00:31:02,329 --> 00:31:03,730 并在其他领域展现实力 927 00:31:03,730 --> 00:31:04,970 这样才能 928 00:31:04,970 --> 00:31:05,890 避免市场回调 929 00:31:05,890 --> 00:31:07,829 并开启新一轮上涨 930 00:31:07,829 --> 00:31:09,069 我完全同意 931 00:31:09,069 --> 00:31:12,470 昨日让我印象深刻的是特朗普谈到 932 00:31:12,470 --> 00:31:14,898 海峡可能直到劳动节才开放 933 00:31:14,898 --> 00:31:15,759 你知道他在设定 934 00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:17,519 他在设定时间框架 935 00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:20,900 我认为这使市场整体略显疲软 936 00:31:20,900 --> 00:31:23,700 现在我们清楚他的谈判策略 937 00:31:23,700 --> 00:31:27,099 这可能被提前至 938 00:31:27,099 --> 00:31:28,180 更短期限 939 00:31:28,180 --> 00:31:29,880 你要翻我的煎饼 940 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:30,700 绝不可能 941 00:31:30,700 --> 00:31:31,440 绝不可能 942 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:32,099 何塞 943 00:31:32,099 --> 00:31:33,190 嗯，是的 944 00:31:33,190 --> 00:31:33,670 是的 945 00:31:33,670 --> 00:31:34,990 我们依然如此 946 00:31:34,990 --> 00:31:36,470 我们仍然 947 00:31:37,660 --> 00:31:39,779 还在想着必须根据特朗普的言论做出市场动作 948 00:31:39,779 --> 00:31:41,819 基于特朗普所说的内容 949 00:31:42,740 --> 00:31:44,539 市场新手们 950 00:31:44,539 --> 00:31:46,539 我待就职日那天再详细聊这个 951 00:31:46,539 --> 00:31:47,140 我说哥们 952 00:31:47,140 --> 00:31:50,319 如果你要玩这个进进出出市场的游戏 953 00:31:50,319 --> 00:31:51,880 基于特朗普的言论 954 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:52,699 嘿 955 00:31:52,699 --> 00:31:54,459 这个游戏还有很多需要学习的 956 00:31:54,459 --> 00:31:55,778 这是个大错误 957 00:31:55,778 --> 00:31:57,199 这是个大错误 958 00:31:57,199 --> 00:32:00,890 特朗普每天都会说这说那 959 00:32:00,890 --> 00:32:02,609 如果你频繁进出市场 960 00:32:02,609 --> 00:32:05,299 基于特朗普说的这些话哥们 961 00:32:05,299 --> 00:32:05,960 你迷失了 962 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,680 你会亏很多钱 963 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,099 你连和我们一起庆祝的机会都没了 964 00:32:10,099 --> 00:32:12,130 这就是看涨催化剂 965 00:32:12,130 --> 00:32:13,470 但这两家公司 966 00:32:13,470 --> 00:32:15,109 博通和CrowdStrike 967 00:32:15,109 --> 00:32:17,289 我认为这些报告绝非糟糕 968 00:32:17,289 --> 00:32:18,450 不不不不不 969 00:32:18,450 --> 00:32:21,480 虽然报告本身没问题 970 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,619 你处于非常艰难的市场环境中 971 00:32:23,619 --> 00:32:26,180 比如博通上周涨了20% 972 00:32:26,180 --> 00:32:27,679 现在又回吐了 973 00:32:27,679 --> 00:32:29,618 这些报告是在 974 00:32:29,618 --> 00:32:33,740 不仅如此，还有萨姆·阿尔顿关于AI支出的评论 975 00:32:33,749 --> 00:32:36,259 或公司在预算规划中 976 00:32:36,259 --> 00:32:37,759 与支出相关的 977 00:32:37,759 --> 00:32:40,059 所以昨天市场基础较弱 978 00:32:40,059 --> 00:32:41,500 然后这些报告出来了 979 00:32:41,500 --> 00:32:43,759 然后进一步加剧了下行压力 980 00:32:43,759 --> 00:32:45,160 你还会继续买入博通吗 981 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:45,640 比如你持有 982 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:46,159 我说啊 983 00:32:46,159 --> 00:32:50,089 他们的营收首次在24年12月后出现下滑 984 00:32:50,089 --> 00:32:51,730 他们的展望保持不变 985 00:32:51,730 --> 00:32:52,670 他们并没有 986 00:32:52,670 --> 00:32:53,509 你知道的 987 00:32:53,509 --> 00:32:54,950 但展望不能不变 988 00:32:54,950 --> 00:32:56,349 你的展望必须调整 989 00:32:56,349 --> 00:32:57,329 这显得平淡无奇 990 00:32:57,329 --> 00:32:57,630 是啊 991 00:32:57,630 --> 00:33:00,689 在股价飙升的环境中 992 00:33:00,689 --> 00:33:01,749 这显然行不通 993 00:33:01,749 --> 00:33:03,249 他们在亲身经历中发现 994 00:33:03,249 --> 00:33:05,400 而作为股东的你同样如此 995 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:05,759 是的 996 00:33:05,759 --> 00:33:08,680 必须要有实质性的业绩指引上调 997 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,200 不能仅仅低于指引的预期上限 998 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,349 这是一个不错的报告 999 00:33:13,349 --> 00:33:13,789 你知道的 1000 00:33:13,789 --> 00:33:16,410 这里正在浮现的一些情况是 1001 00:33:16,410 --> 00:33:18,920 是关于tpu护城河的位置 1002 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:22,059 他们与Alphabet的合同仍在进行中 1003 00:33:22,059 --> 00:33:23,559 我认为到二十三十一 1004 00:33:23,559 --> 00:33:24,230 或许有可能 1005 00:33:24,230 --> 00:33:27,710 但像Marvell这样的公司开始出现在名单中 1006 00:33:27,710 --> 00:33:28,950 你已经看到过这个名字 1007 00:33:28,950 --> 00:33:30,519 现在暴涨了 1008 00:33:30,519 --> 00:33:30,980 Brockham 1009 00:33:30,980 --> 00:33:32,779 正如我所说上周上涨了20% 1010 00:33:32,779 --> 00:33:33,799 已经回吐了涨幅 1011 00:33:33,799 --> 00:33:35,750 我认为这还不错 1012 00:33:35,750 --> 00:33:38,150 你知道这今年仍是强劲标的 1013 00:33:38,150 --> 00:33:39,549 我们不会在此加仓 1014 00:33:39,549 --> 00:33:42,569 但我看到大量支撑位 1015 00:33:42,569 --> 00:33:43,650 如果继续上涨的话 1016 00:33:43,650 --> 00:33:45,319 355到360 1017 00:33:45,319 --> 00:33:46,720 这是两条移动平均线 1018 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,519 这是今年早些时候的整理区间 1019 00:33:48,519 --> 00:33:50,380 所以如果继续上涨 1020 00:33:50,380 --> 00:33:52,099 如果出现真正的回调 1021 00:33:52,099 --> 00:33:53,640 我认为这是买入时机 1022 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,299 市场并未放弃任何希望 1023 00:33:56,299 --> 00:33:58,230 对这个故事没有明确方向 1024 00:33:58,230 --> 00:33:59,869 花旗看涨 1025 00:33:59,869 --> 00:34:01,130 买入弱势信号 1026 00:34:01,130 --> 00:34:04,210 今日有六家上调目标价 1027 00:34:04,210 --> 00:34:08,969 JPM目标降至580，UBS小幅下调 1028 00:34:08,969 --> 00:34:10,409 485美元 1029 00:34:10,409 --> 00:34:13,280 但市场仍看好该股 1030 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,340 我在节目中很少遇到投资者 1031 00:34:16,340 --> 00:34:18,289 或者哦，完全正确 1032 00:34:18,289 --> 00:34:19,710 这波行情算不了什么 1033 00:34:19,710 --> 00:34:21,469 今天这波行情微不足道 1034 00:34:21,469 --> 00:34:24,610 若人们真正担忧博通，涨幅会达12% 1035 00:34:24,610 --> 00:34:26,750 该股今日应涨30% 1036 00:34:26,750 --> 00:34:29,070 12%微不足道，更像是 1037 00:34:29,070 --> 00:34:30,809 让我联想到期权活动 1038 00:34:30,809 --> 00:34:32,090 可能方向错误 1039 00:34:32,090 --> 00:34:33,429 某种伽马挤压情况 1040 00:34:33,429 --> 00:34:34,150 我反向操作了 1041 00:34:34,150 --> 00:34:36,869 啰嗦一大堆就像我所说 1042 00:34:36,869 --> 00:34:41,010 我不觉得大博通股东喜欢 1043 00:34:41,010 --> 00:34:42,289 哦，我们现在必须卖出 1044 00:34:42,289 --> 00:34:44,610 我实在看不出这只股票 1045 00:34:44,610 --> 00:34:46,269 如果人们真的担忧 1046 00:34:48,769 --> 00:34:52,269 这只股票昨天刚创下五周来最高价 1047 00:34:52,269 --> 00:34:54,528 他们甚至预测会上涨20% 1048 00:34:54,528 --> 00:34:56,628 过去一周涨幅可能超过20% 1049 00:34:56,628 --> 00:34:58,528 这完全不是回事 1050 00:34:58,528 --> 00:34:59,168 明智的人 1051 00:34:59,168 --> 00:35:01,940 对这只股票不看好的人 1052 00:35:01,940 --> 00:35:02,500 这确实 1053 00:35:02,500 --> 00:35:04,099 我并不反对这些观点 1054 00:35:04,099 --> 00:35:06,219 但还有另一个因素 1055 00:35:06,219 --> 00:35:10,378 我们未提及的是台湾半导体CEO表示 1056 00:35:11,458 --> 00:35:13,018 我们看不到 1057 00:35:13,018 --> 00:35:18,110 短期内能赶上全球半导体需求 1058 00:35:18,110 --> 00:35:24,050 近期芯片市场的狂热和泡沫 1059 00:35:24,050 --> 00:35:27,630 过去几个月芯片的上涨主要基于 1060 00:35:27,630 --> 00:35:32,269 剩余履约义务持续增长的预期 1061 00:35:32,269 --> 00:35:34,570 这是我一直在强调的观点 1062 00:35:34,570 --> 00:35:38,880 这个行业如此周期性是因为 1063 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:39,099 四 1064 00:35:39,099 --> 00:35:43,568 五年时间才能建立 1065 00:35:43,568 --> 00:35:45,329 这些公司依赖的芯片制造设施 1066 00:35:45,329 --> 00:35:49,929 当他们真正建成所需设施时 1067 00:35:49,929 --> 00:35:51,179 晶圆厂 1068 00:35:51,179 --> 00:35:53,659 需求可能已经下降 1069 00:35:53,659 --> 00:35:55,039 我们找到了其他解决方案 1070 00:35:55,039 --> 00:35:55,980 或者根本不需要 1071 00:35:55,980 --> 00:35:56,159 是的 1072 00:35:56,159 --> 00:35:56,880 但听我说 1073 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:58,880 我们来玩个小游戏 1074 00:35:58,880 --> 00:35:59,159 好的 1075 00:35:59,159 --> 00:36:00,050 听着 1076 00:36:00,050 --> 00:36:04,050 如果你无法生产足够多的GPU/CPU 1077 00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:05,309 理想情况下 1078 00:36:05,309 --> 00:36:06,530 会发生什么 1079 00:36:06,530 --> 00:36:08,730 你提高价格 1080 00:36:09,849 --> 00:36:14,150 客户只能接受涨价 1081 00:36:14,150 --> 00:36:15,650 所以你提高价格 1082 00:36:15,650 --> 00:36:16,909 利润率大幅增长 1083 00:36:16,909 --> 00:36:19,159 每股收益显著提升 1084 00:36:19,159 --> 00:36:21,320 即使营收增长不如预期 1085 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,079 但营收最终会大幅增加 1086 00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:25,280 因为你能提高售价 1087 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:25,940 你知道的 1088 00:36:25,940 --> 00:36:26,630 嗯 1089 00:36:26,630 --> 00:36:27,170 我不知道 1090 00:36:27,170 --> 00:36:28,230 随便给个数字 1091 00:36:28,230 --> 00:36:30,000 如果每颗芯片售价2000美元 1092 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,480 需求如此之高，人们愿意为它支付任何费用 1093 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,559 你的客户可以高达三千美元 1094 00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:36,280 四千美元 1095 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,829 从那里开始利润率大幅增长 1096 00:36:39,809 --> 00:36:43,550 你知道这是芯片公司现在最有趣的部分 1097 00:36:43,550 --> 00:36:46,730 没错，这不会是长期持续的现象 1098 00:36:46,730 --> 00:36:48,769 不会持续十年 1099 00:36:48,769 --> 00:36:52,119 但未来一到三年 1100 00:36:52,119 --> 00:36:53,679 可能五年 1101 00:36:53,679 --> 00:36:54,559 就是这样 1102 00:36:54,559 --> 00:36:56,639 所以基本上和之前一样 1103 00:36:56,639 --> 00:37:00,230 或者我们已经从其他地方获得了所需供应 1104 00:37:00,230 --> 00:37:04,269 因此我认为这也是对博通反应的体现 1105 00:37:04,269 --> 00:37:05,010 具体来说 1106 00:37:05,010 --> 00:37:06,429 是这样的想法 1107 00:37:06,429 --> 00:37:07,929 这个数字相当不错 1108 00:37:07,929 --> 00:37:08,289 是的 1109 00:37:08,289 --> 00:37:12,289 我们年同比增长48%的营收 1110 00:37:12,289 --> 00:37:16,269 其他公司报出这些数字会涨15% 1111 00:37:16,269 --> 00:37:16,809 而不是下跌 1112 00:37:16,809 --> 00:37:21,318 但这也反映了这种情绪 1113 00:37:21,318 --> 00:37:25,759 我们该如何停止对自身业绩的过度兴奋 1114 00:37:25,759 --> 00:37:29,230 并开始关注实际销售情况 1115 00:37:29,230 --> 00:37:29,750 现在 1116 00:37:29,750 --> 00:37:32,570 你看到的 1117 00:37:32,570 --> 00:37:38,480 过去一个月市场表现几乎持平 1118 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:38,800 如果你 1119 00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,559 如果看纳斯达克过去几个月 1120 00:37:41,559 --> 00:37:42,579 上涨7% 1121 00:37:42,579 --> 00:37:44,820 标普上涨 1122 00:37:44,820 --> 00:37:45,940 五点二五% 1123 00:37:45,940 --> 00:37:46,699 罗素 1124 00:37:46,699 --> 00:37:48,119 二千指数涨近5% 1125 00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:49,840 道指今日表现强劲 1126 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,639 上涨约五点三三% 1127 00:37:52,639 --> 00:37:56,199 过去一个月接近5.5%涨幅 1128 00:37:56,199 --> 00:38:01,679 很难否认这些数据构成 1129 00:38:01,679 --> 00:38:04,880 尤其是在人们关注 1130 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:05,619 确实 1131 00:38:05,619 --> 00:38:08,679 我们确实存在顶部狭窄的市场 1132 00:38:08,679 --> 00:38:10,360 我们明白 1133 00:38:11,699 --> 00:38:16,079 没错，狭窄不仅在表现上 1134 00:38:16,079 --> 00:38:20,358 狭窄指头部公司规模 1135 00:38:20,358 --> 00:38:22,358 贡献了大部分收益 1136 00:38:22,358 --> 00:38:23,568 因为它们的规模 1137 00:38:23,568 --> 00:38:26,108 但这与你的观点不同 1138 00:38:26,108 --> 00:38:31,210 还有其他行业和证券表现良好 1139 00:38:31,210 --> 00:38:32,690 今天我认为真正有趣的是 1140 00:38:32,690 --> 00:38:34,949 这也是我一直在思考的 1141 00:38:35,150 --> 00:38:37,309 我想今天多谈谈 1142 00:38:37,309 --> 00:38:38,590 今天就是今天 1143 00:38:38,590 --> 00:38:44,550 但存在一个问题，问题在于市场的动量面 1144 00:38:44,550 --> 00:38:45,750 这是重要组成部分 1145 00:38:45,750 --> 00:38:46,289 没错 1146 00:38:46,289 --> 00:38:49,809 你现在有理由离开芯片交易吗 1147 00:38:49,809 --> 00:38:52,369 答案是你仍然没有 1148 00:38:53,449 --> 00:38:54,690 你仍然不喜欢 1149 00:38:54,690 --> 00:38:56,269 它仍是核心标的 1150 00:38:56,590 --> 00:38:59,110 因此如果明天再次回调 1151 00:38:59,110 --> 00:39:00,579 它仍将是核心标的 1152 00:39:00,579 --> 00:39:02,300 你会马上回补mu 1153 00:39:02,300 --> 00:39:04,360 你会马上回补amd 1154 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:12,518 因为观点认为股价将持续上涨直到发生我之前提到的情况 1155 00:39:12,518 --> 00:39:14,838 因此这仍是动量投资首选 1156 00:39:14,838 --> 00:39:19,909 这意味着短期内会压制市场其他板块 1157 00:39:19,909 --> 00:39:23,309 显然大型ipo也将到来 1158 00:39:23,309 --> 00:39:23,929 Anthropic 1159 00:39:23,929 --> 00:39:25,199 OpenAI SpaceX 1160 00:39:25,199 --> 00:39:27,059 也会让市场降温 1161 00:39:27,059 --> 00:39:27,420 没错 1162 00:39:27,420 --> 00:39:27,639 好的 1163 00:39:27,639 --> 00:39:28,820 大家一如既往感谢参与 1164 00:39:28,820 --> 00:39:30,360 再次感谢大家的到来 1165 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,440 私密群即将新增成员 1166 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:33,800 如有意加入我们 1167 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,269 请查看下方置顶留言 1168 00:39:36,269 --> 00:39:36,610 好的 1169 00:39:36,610 --> 00:39:38,980 大家多多保重，祝大家有美好的一天
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