【NaNa说美股】20260422最后的护盘手！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月22号

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周三

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梅伊停火协议在反复打脸中迎来了第四次延期

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加上多份企业财报好于预期

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为市场重新注入乐观情绪

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美股三大股指集体收涨

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昨天盘后

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川普发帖表示

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鉴于德黑兰政府严重分裂

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并且呢应巴铁的请求

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无限期延长美伊停火

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直到伊朗内部的讨论结束

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方案提交

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今天一觉醒来

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大约是发现无限期这个词显得自己不够硬哈

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立马改口称

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只给3~5天

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最快周五重启谈判

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这出戏呢演到现在

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市场其实在集体专下

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刻意的忽视了一个逻辑硬伤

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既然伊朗内部这么分裂

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革命卫队和行政部门各唱各的

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如果拿枪的不听拿笔的

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那协议签了也是白签啊

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擦屁股都嫌它太硬

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现在的局面呢就是典型的互掐脖子

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伊朗抓着霍尔木兹海峡作为筹码

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要求美国必须先解除海上封锁

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才愿意坐下来谈

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今天伊朗炮艇呢甚至在海峡内向商船开火

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并且扣押了两艘试图穿越海峡的嗯集装箱船

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想拿航道来换取封锁

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而川普则将对伊朗港口的海上封锁

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视为美国的主要筹码

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增加伊朗内部的经济和生存压力

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逼迫伊朗回到谈判桌

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川普村伊朗人急需现金

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甚至连军队和警察的工资都付不起了

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现在现在就看谁更拖不起哈

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美股市场对此已经脱敏了

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竟然连身处能源危机前线的韩国股市

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都不在乎哈

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那美国作为能源进出口国

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当然更没有理由认怂了

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所以无论美姨怎么折腾

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美股这一边依然牛皮的紧

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坚定地维持在高位

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财包机的强劲开局呢也提供了底气

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截止目前

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已经公布财报的标普500指数成份股中

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超过80%的公司业绩都超出预期

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摩根大通更是带头唱多哈

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认为在AI热潮之下

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美股的涨势势不可挡

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中东那点事

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充其量只是上升轨道上的几个小土坑而已

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轻轻松松就可以跨过去

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还有一个因祸得福的好消息

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就是美银认为受中东冲突影响

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而不是此前所预测的4月

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如果扰动持续时间较长

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或者受财政政策争论

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再次引发利率市场不稳定的加息

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推迟到7月份的可能性也在上升

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所以原本担心的日元套利交易反转压力

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期交易员们

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现在几乎把4月日本加息的概率已经归零了

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他们对6月加息的压注约为67%

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技术面上呢

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市场就是主打一个死不回头

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标普500指数目前正在测试初步阻力区域

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7150~7200点

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接下来我们关注该区域是否形成拐点哈

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若是能够向上突破并且站稳呃

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那将会打开进一步上行空间

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目标指向7300甚至7450点

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若是无法突破该区域呢

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那就可能意味着阶段性的顶部在这里形成哈

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下方第一个支撑位在10日均线7000点附近啊

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其次就是6900点

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这里的第二个缺口了

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只要6860点的底库守住

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整体偏多格局呢仍将可以维持

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所以这底裤是不能够破的嗯

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但是在这一片繁荣之下

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市场底层却显现出了

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极具矛盾的资金离场迹象啊

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是的呃

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一些资金开始撤退了

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根据每银披露的数据

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美银的机构客户与散户交易员

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都成群结队的在撤离

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其中机构客户过去五周中有四周卖出股票

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而散户呢连续第六周净卖出

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创下自2024年2月以来最长净卖出周期

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嗯这完全是反直觉哈

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因为前段时间我们一直说散户这个踏空了

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拼命上车嘛

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等一下我们解释嗯

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到底散户现在采取什么行为哈

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作为增长引擎的科技股呢

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是卖出规模最大的板块

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在真实买盘退潮

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企业回购动能放缓的背景之下

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股指之所以仍能够维持在高位

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核心支撑力嗯已转向上

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有的系统性力量

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目前这个市场主要就是有CCTA系统化资金

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以及那些被迫对冲的做市商强行托举支撑着

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最有趣的是

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大家一边卖出股票现货

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一边呢却因为害怕踏空

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所以转身疯狂买入看涨期权

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来继续吃这个鱼尾行情

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所以那个散户呃说在撤离嗯

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也不一定错

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就是散户可能就一边卖股票呃

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一边嗯就把钱拿去买看涨期权来追逐收益嘛

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这种一边出货一边做多的非对称操作哈

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直接就把一个月标普500指数

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看涨期权的偏度呢

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呃拉到了90%的历史高位

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当前美股的这个高位震荡

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已经演变成一场有做市商对冲需求

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与系统性算法共同驱动的一个结构性的博弈

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之前高盛曾呃说过

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专家拉高的这个目的

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是要把筹码高位派发给CCTA与做市商

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现在看来似乎是有那么点意思哈

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但是高盛现在警告说啊

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CCTA的多头持仓

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现在已经达到了历史百分位的

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95%以上了呀

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接近最大持仓限额就快买够了

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买满了

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现在买盘力量正在枯竭嗯

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这个美股现在上涨越来越依赖于日内

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追涨的情绪

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都是那些0日到期的期权的推动了哈

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而并非系统性资金的长效流入了

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所以呢就是现在不要再去追加杠杆

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或者再去这个买的看涨期权了

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国际油价这一边继续上涨

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在第二轮谈判落空之后

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川普单方面的延长了停火协议

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这个被市场解读为使某种程度的软弱

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或者是利益好呃

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实际上地缘风险正在暗台暗自积累啊

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如果依赖呃

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就是死活不愿意回去谈判桌的话

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那这个周末就不知道发生什么事情了

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但是美股呢继续沉浸在好日子的幻想中

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因为当下的乐观情绪

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主要是有强劲的这个科技财报预期所驱动的

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对地缘风险已经暂时脱敏了

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不过要是油价这么继续涨上去的话哈

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那避险情绪可能就会突然回归

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也说不定

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费城半导体指数呢已经连续16个交易日上涨

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创历史上最长的连涨天数

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累计涨幅超过40%

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自1996年以来哈

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从来没出现过如此密集

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如此持久的上涨节奏

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哪怕是2000年互联网泡沫最疯狂的时候

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或者是2021年芯片荒的狂热阶段

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这个肺瓣连涨天数也大多在9~12天

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这一种这个走势是对空头的彻底的持续的碾压

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把大空头MICROBERRY的脸都给上肿了哈

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一个月前市场还在纠结诶

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AI投资的投资回报率何时兑现啊

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啊担心会不会重演2000年的泡沫崩盘啊

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但是现在这些声音呢全全部消失了

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取而代之的就是最纯粹的父母心理

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在金融市场

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价格本身就是最有说服力的趋势哈

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但指数一路新高

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所有的质疑自然都会被淹没

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而且本轮公司的领头羊

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不再是那些稳健的大型巨头

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虽然他们也涨了很多

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那些呃涨最多的是极具进攻性的小盘半导体股

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比如ax t i呃

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A1H2这一类个股哈

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今年涨幅已经达到三倍以上了

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这已经不是简单的业绩驱动

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更像是估值重构或者是嗯投机情绪的集中示范

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但资金觉得英伟达或者台积电涨得太慢

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太贵的时候

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盘子太大的时候

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他们就会涌入这些流动性更小

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弹性更大的二三线标的

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市场风险偏好已经被推到极致哈

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这种全面开花的补涨阶段

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就我们说的那个群魔乱舞的时候

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往往也是行情进入白热化的标志

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只要和AI半导体沾边

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猪都能够飞上天

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背后呢是三股力量叠加

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AI蓄势带来的长期想象力

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空投被迫回补的踩踏效应

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以及短线资金的高杠杆投机

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三者叠加

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就形成了一场典型的加速行情

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还没有上车的资金心理防线已经彻底崩溃了呃

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于是信仰这两个字又开始被反复的提起哈

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在金融市场

211
00:09:23,740 --> 00:09:28,269
所谓的信仰呀往往就是对贪婪的一种包装嗯

212
00:09:28,269 --> 00:09:31,779
本轮上涨很大程度上是在提前透支

213
00:09:31,779 --> 00:09:34,500
AI将会改变世界的长期逻辑

214
00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:36,799
而不是当下已经兑现的业绩

215
00:09:36,799 --> 00:09:39,639
财报季就是一个很好的压力测试

216
00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:41,759
如果财报只是符合预期

217
00:09:41,759 --> 00:09:42,759
可能都撑不住

218
00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:46,980
现在的估值只有持续的超越想象的经验

219
00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:50,000
才能够维持这层金色的信仰外衣哈

220
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,828
否则的话一旦叙事和现实之间出现裂缝的话

221
00:09:53,828 --> 00:09:56,109
那像现在这个斜率的上涨

222
00:09:56,109 --> 00:09:59,629
往往也会以同样极端的方式被修正啊

223
00:09:59,629 --> 00:10:03,000
所以那个三倍杠杆做多费半的

224
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,919
就应该手里注意一下哈

225
00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:09,649
该锁定的利润最好就有些呃把它给落袋为安

226
00:10:09,649 --> 00:10:11,490
吃到自己手里面才是真的

227
00:10:11,490 --> 00:10:12,769
其他个股方面呢

228
00:10:12,769 --> 00:10:14,610
特斯拉今天盘后公布了财报

229
00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:17,610
公司一季度营收223.9亿美元

230
00:10:17,610 --> 00:10:19,078
同比增长16%

231
00:10:19,078 --> 00:10:21,658
略好于预期的222亿美元

232
00:10:21,658 --> 00:10:23,818
调整后每股收益41美分

233
00:10:23,818 --> 00:10:25,499
也超过预期34美分

234
00:10:25,499 --> 00:10:27,399
同比增长52%

235
00:10:27,399 --> 00:10:29,919
毛利润率为21.1%

236
00:10:29,919 --> 00:10:31,980
高于预期的17.7%

237
00:10:31,980 --> 00:10:33,320
股价盘后上涨

238
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,940
公司表示它的电动汽车全球需求正在回暖

239
00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:37,700
整体而言

240
00:10:37,700 --> 00:10:41,419
这些数据比市场嗯原先悲观的预期要好得多

241
00:10:43,279 --> 00:10:46,759
目前也就特斯拉股价还没有回到历史前高附近

242
00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:49,360
所以这个看来是要补涨了哈

243
00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,399
但是呢软件股这边可能就不太妙了

244
00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,919
ServiceNow盘后公布了一季度财报

245
00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:57,039
营收37.7亿美元

246
00:10:57,039 --> 00:10:58,779
同比增长22%

247
00:10:58,779 --> 00:11:00,240
基本符合预期

248
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,460
净利润4.69亿美元

249
00:11:02,460 --> 00:11:04,389
每股收益是15美分

250
00:11:04,389 --> 00:11:07,929
年度合同价值超过100万美元的嗯

251
00:11:07,929 --> 00:11:08,750
Now assist

252
00:11:08,750 --> 00:11:12,399
这个客户同比增长超过130%

253
00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:14,899
上调了全年订阅收入预期

254
00:11:14,899 --> 00:11:17,639
预计全年订阅收入157.4亿

255
00:11:17,639 --> 00:11:19,899
到157.8亿美元之间

256
00:11:19,899 --> 00:11:22,620
高于预期的155.4亿美元

257
00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:24,000
数据都不错哈

258
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,179
但是呢股价却在盘后重错

259
00:11:26,179 --> 00:11:30,019
问题就出在公司表示由于地缘政治不利因素

260
00:11:30,019 --> 00:11:33,950
2026财年将会面临一些嗯短期利润率压力

261
00:11:33,950 --> 00:11:39,009
但是这个华尔街似乎并不是很相信这个理由

262
00:11:39,009 --> 00:11:43,419
觉得呃这是把锅甩给那个中东冲突上面

263
00:11:43,419 --> 00:11:47,318
实际上啊会不会是因为AI颠覆啊之类的

264
00:11:47,318 --> 00:11:48,099
股价呢

265
00:11:48,099 --> 00:11:50,399
最近刚好就反弹到50日均线

266
00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:51,759
这个中期阻力位了

267
00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:54,029
那现在又要被打下去了哈

268
00:11:54,029 --> 00:11:56,669
也连累了整个软件板块情绪

269
00:11:56,669 --> 00:11:59,210
现在盘后其他软件股都跌了

270
00:11:59,210 --> 00:12:01,409
德州一期盘后公布财报

271
00:12:01,409 --> 00:12:02,309
股价大涨

272
00:12:02,309 --> 00:12:04,980
公司第一季度营收48.3亿一美元

273
00:12:04,980 --> 00:12:06,379
同比增长19%

274
00:12:06,379 --> 00:12:08,299
净利润15.5亿美元

275
00:12:08,299 --> 00:12:09,919
每股收益1.68美元

276
00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:11,490
都超出市场预期

277
00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:13,289
二季度指引也乐观

278
00:12:13,289 --> 00:12:16,470
股价在财报前已经经历了一轮大涨

279
00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:18,049
创出新高了

280
00:12:18,049 --> 00:12:20,889
这一份财报吧虽然是不错

281
00:12:20,889 --> 00:12:23,029
但不算多么让人惊艳

282
00:12:23,029 --> 00:12:26,710
所以呢我不太确定他还能不能够继续支持

283
00:12:26,710 --> 00:12:28,190
这个股票的估值

284
00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:29,480
继续这么扩张

285
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,120
谷歌在拉斯维加斯举行的cloud next

286
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,279
的2026大会上呢

287
00:12:34,279 --> 00:12:37,480
嗯发布了两款全新的AI芯片

288
00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,500
TPU8T和TPU8I呃

289
00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,500
首次将这个训练与推理拆开来做

290
00:12:44,500 --> 00:12:47,340
TPU8T呢负责教AI学习

291
00:12:47,340 --> 00:12:48,860
用于模型训练

292
00:12:48,860 --> 00:12:51,879
而TPU8爱呢只负责让AI干活

293
00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:55,159
就是模型训练完成之后的推理阶段

294
00:12:55,159 --> 00:12:56,679
这种拆分意味着

295
00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,240
谷歌在AI基础设施上开始走向更精细化

296
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,259
分工目标就是提升效率

297
00:13:02,259 --> 00:13:03,470
降低成本

298
00:13:03,470 --> 00:13:06,950
这其实是整个科技巨头阵营的共同方向

299
00:13:06,950 --> 00:13:08,309
就是自己做芯片

300
00:13:08,309 --> 00:13:10,250
减少对英伟达的依赖

301
00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:12,769
谷歌算是最早行动的玩家之一哈

302
00:13:12,769 --> 00:13:17,039
早在2015年就开始用自研芯片跑AI模型了

303
00:13:17,039 --> 00:13:20,259
2018年开始对外出租TPU算力

304
00:13:20,259 --> 00:13:23,970
按照这个da division此前的估算呢

305
00:13:23,970 --> 00:13:27,000
光是TPU业务叠加DeepMind的估值

306
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:28,759
就已经接近9000亿美元

307
00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:31,450
已经算是一个算力领域的隐形巨头了

308
00:13:31,450 --> 00:13:34,450
而亚马逊微软meta也都在跟进哈

309
00:13:34,450 --> 00:13:38,250
亚马逊在2018年推出inference下做推理

310
00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:41,089
2020年的三线training做训练

311
00:13:41,089 --> 00:13:43,849
微软今年初发布了第二代AI芯片

312
00:13:43,849 --> 00:13:45,749
meta则是和博通合作

313
00:13:45,749 --> 00:13:47,860
加速自研芯片布局

314
00:13:47,860 --> 00:13:49,620
大家的思路其实很一致啦

315
00:13:49,620 --> 00:13:50,720
就是在AI时代

316
00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,068
算力就是命脉

317
00:13:52,068 --> 00:13:54,629
不能够完全掌握在别人手里吗

318
00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:55,668
尽管如此

319
00:13:55,668 --> 00:13:58,349
目前这些巨头们的自研芯片哈

320
00:13:58,349 --> 00:14:00,059
更多还是补充方案

321
00:14:00,059 --> 00:14:04,100
还远远谈不上撼动英伟达的统治地位

322
00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:06,220
甚至谷歌这次发布新的TPU

323
00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:10,629
也刻意的回避了与英伟达正面对比性能呃

324
00:14:10,629 --> 00:14:12,750
英伟达股价高位震荡了大半年时间

325
00:14:12,750 --> 00:14:14,509
终于突破了这个区间阻力

326
00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:16,279
再次回到200美元上饭啊

327
00:14:16,279 --> 00:14:17,440
希望不要再掉下来啦

328
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,559
不要再让那个老2AMD在旁边看笑话

329
00:14:20,559 --> 00:14:22,820
GEB股价呢季后大涨

330
00:14:22,820 --> 00:14:26,360
受益于AI数据中心与电网升级热炒

331
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,539
公司一季度业绩大爆发

332
00:14:28,539 --> 00:14:31,320
订单额同比飙升71%

333
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,379
单季自有现金流达到了48亿美元

334
00:14:34,379 --> 00:14:35,860
同比翻了三倍多

335
00:14:35,860 --> 00:14:38,149
而且超过去年全年总额

336
00:14:38,149 --> 00:14:41,429
即便它的分店业务受到关税拖累

337
00:14:41,429 --> 00:14:44,379
但是公司仍然大幅上调全年指引

338
00:14:44,379 --> 00:14:48,250
将资有现金流目标终止提升了近40%

339
00:14:48,250 --> 00:14:52,450
显示全球电力基础设施进入加速扩张周期

340
00:14:52,450 --> 00:14:53,850
股价跳空高开

341
00:14:53,850 --> 00:14:55,539
再创历史新高啊

342
00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:56,679
趋势非常的强哈

343
00:14:56,679 --> 00:14:58,519
后市仍持续看好

344
00:14:58,519 --> 00:14:59,460
这一份财报

345
00:14:59,460 --> 00:15:03,669
可以说是AI电力链条的典型的爆发嗯

346
00:15:03,669 --> 00:15:05,230
波音财报呢超预期

347
00:15:05,230 --> 00:15:06,730
股价日内波动比较大

348
00:15:06,730 --> 00:15:08,629
开盘先出现了一波跳水

349
00:15:08,629 --> 00:15:10,269
之后再震荡拉回

350
00:15:10,269 --> 00:15:12,210
最终还是收涨5.5%

351
00:15:12,210 --> 00:15:14,730
公司一季度营收222亿美元

352
00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:16,169
同比增长14%

353
00:15:16,169 --> 00:15:20,289
净亏损大幅收窄到七七百万美元呃

354
00:15:20,289 --> 00:15:23,509
去年同期为亏损3100万美元

355
00:15:23,509 --> 00:15:26,169
尽管仍没能够实现扭亏为盈

356
00:15:26,169 --> 00:15:30,899
但基引现金流和核心利润指标呢都显著的改善

357
00:15:30,899 --> 00:15:33,320
商用飞机交付量增长了10%

358
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:37,220
手里的积压订单更是高达6950亿美元

359
00:15:37,220 --> 00:15:37,940
创新高

360
00:15:37,940 --> 00:15:40,340
所以需求端是完全没有问题的

361
00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:43,000
但是现金流压力依然存在

362
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:47,110
公司一季度经营现金流为负的1.79亿美元

363
00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:49,830
虽然比去年同期的-16.4

364
00:15:49,830 --> 00:15:51,590
6亿美元的大幅收窄

365
00:15:51,590 --> 00:15:52,940
但是仍没有转正

366
00:15:52,940 --> 00:15:53,879
与此同时

367
00:15:53,879 --> 00:15:56,059
账上现金从294亿美元

368
00:15:56,059 --> 00:15:57,639
降到了209亿美元

369
00:15:57,639 --> 00:16:00,389
主要是用于还债和资本开支

370
00:16:00,389 --> 00:16:03,210
公司就是一边在加速产能爬坡

371
00:16:03,210 --> 00:16:05,078
一边呢在主动去杠杆

372
00:16:05,078 --> 00:16:08,038
单季就偿还了70亿美元的债务

373
00:16:08,038 --> 00:16:10,379
资本开支也翻倍增长嗯

374
00:16:10,379 --> 00:16:13,659
这说明哈公司是在修复的路上

375
00:16:13,659 --> 00:16:15,299
但是还没有走到终点

376
00:16:15,299 --> 00:16:17,279
现金流何时能够转正

377
00:16:17,279 --> 00:16:21,490
是投资者最为关注的下一个关键里程碑

378
00:16:21,490 --> 00:16:25,590
公司目前仍保有100亿美元的备用信贷额度

379
00:16:25,590 --> 00:16:26,870
尚且没有动用

380
00:16:26,870 --> 00:16:30,568
这也为应对未来不确定性预留了缓冲空间

381
00:16:30,568 --> 00:16:32,349
太空概念股今天普涨

382
00:16:32,349 --> 00:16:36,409
资金明显在往这个新故事方向重新聚集嗯

383
00:16:36,409 --> 00:16:38,870
RDW涨了15.7%

384
00:16:38,870 --> 00:16:40,370
SIDU涨了8%

385
00:16:40,370 --> 00:16:42,649
ASTS涨了5.8%

386
00:16:42,649 --> 00:16:43,529
公司宣布

387
00:16:43,529 --> 00:16:47,649
美国联邦通信委员会已经授予他商用授权

388
00:16:47,649 --> 00:16:51,990
允许公司在美国境内提供太空直连手机的嗯

389
00:16:51,990 --> 00:16:53,450
蜂窝宽带服务

390
00:16:53,450 --> 00:16:56,730
也就是说未来手机在没有地面记账的情况之下

391
00:16:56,730 --> 00:16:58,789
也能直接连上卫星嗯

392
00:16:58,789 --> 00:17:02,049
实现通信这个事情的意义对公司不小哈

393
00:17:02,049 --> 00:17:03,889
它标志着天地一体通信

394
00:17:03,889 --> 00:17:06,318
开始进入真正的商业化阶段了

395
00:17:06,318 --> 00:17:07,659
一旦落地顺利

396
00:17:07,659 --> 00:17:09,798
不仅能够覆盖偏远地区

397
00:17:09,798 --> 00:17:12,509
还能够重塑全球通信格局

398
00:17:12,509 --> 00:17:13,089
当然了

399
00:17:13,089 --> 00:17:13,829
短期来看

400
00:17:13,829 --> 00:17:16,869
这类公司仍处于高投入强预期阶段

401
00:17:16,869 --> 00:17:18,769
股价更多还是有想象空间

402
00:17:18,769 --> 00:17:20,679
驱动的波动也会非常的大

403
00:17:20,679 --> 00:17:25,318
波士顿科学vs x1季度业绩的超预期

404
00:17:25,318 --> 00:17:26,828
股价涨跌9%

405
00:17:26,828 --> 00:17:29,028
净销售额52亿美元

406
00:17:29,028 --> 00:17:30,969
同比增长11.6%

407
00:17:30,969 --> 00:17:32,788
依然维持两位数的增长

408
00:17:32,788 --> 00:17:36,289
只是相比2025年那种爆发式增长呢

409
00:17:36,289 --> 00:17:38,279
节奏开始回归正常

410
00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:40,079
核心业务表现扎实

411
00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:42,759
尤其是在美国市场的需求依然强劲

412
00:17:42,759 --> 00:17:45,250
这个是支撑它股价上涨的关键

413
00:17:45,250 --> 00:17:48,130
但是管理层对未来仍相对谨慎

414
00:17:48,130 --> 00:17:50,720
还下调了2026年全年指引

415
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:51,880
并且明确表示

416
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,519
2026年第二季度

417
00:17:53,519 --> 00:17:56,519
可能会是全年最困难的阶段

418
00:17:56,519 --> 00:17:57,799
这种当前很好

419
00:17:57,799 --> 00:17:59,319
但是前景降温的组合

420
00:17:59,319 --> 00:18:02,150
让色彩在乐观中就带着一丝保留哈

421
00:18:02,150 --> 00:18:04,670
嗯股价此前由于已经跌了很多

422
00:18:04,670 --> 00:18:07,839
今天上涨可能也有部分空头回补的原因

423
00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:12,799
直觉外科i is rg的表现呢则更偏确定性

424
00:18:12,799 --> 00:18:14,180
质成长

425
00:18:14,180 --> 00:18:17,140
公司一季度业绩同样超出预期

426
00:18:17,140 --> 00:18:20,049
在宏观环境让不稳定的情备

427
00:18:20,049 --> 00:18:23,029
在宏观环境让不稳定的背景下

428
00:18:23,029 --> 00:18:26,740
机器人手术的需求呢依然保持强劲增长

429
00:18:26,740 --> 00:18:31,160
达芬奇手术系统的装机量和使用频率持续提升

430
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:35,960
说明医院端对提效和微创手术的需求没有减弱

431
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,039
相比一些周期性行业哈

432
00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:40,720
致力提高医疗效率的技术路径呢

433
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,000
具备更强的抗周期属性

434
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,259
也因此更容易获得资金的持续关注

435
00:18:46,259 --> 00:18:48,730
存储板块继续走强

436
00:18:48,730 --> 00:18:51,289
美光科技今天又涨了8.5%

437
00:18:51,289 --> 00:18:53,329
刷新历史新高嗯

438
00:18:53,329 --> 00:18:54,269
消息面上

439
00:18:54,269 --> 00:18:56,109
高盛研究显示

440
00:18:56,109 --> 00:18:59,799
仅美光科技一家公司就贡献了标普500

441
00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:02,119
盈利预期上调了百约51%

442
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,420
成了美股本轮盈利预期上调的核心推动力

443
00:19:06,420 --> 00:19:07,819
在财报发布之前

444
00:19:07,819 --> 00:19:11,240
高盛已经将美观列为重点看好标的

445
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,240
对公司2026年每股收益的预测

446
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,449
比市场一致预期还高出了大约19%

447
00:19:17,449 --> 00:19:21,288
所以该股现在又成为资金追逐的焦点

448
00:19:21,288 --> 00:19:24,200
更夸张的其实是增速本身呃

449
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:25,619
当前市场一至预期

450
00:19:25,619 --> 00:19:26,099
美观

451
00:19:26,099 --> 00:19:27,279
2026年每股收益

452
00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:30,250
同比增长将高达605%

453
00:19:30,250 --> 00:19:32,130
而自2月下旬以来呢

454
00:19:32,130 --> 00:19:35,190
盈利预期已经被上调了大约93%

455
00:19:35,190 --> 00:19:37,309
就短短几周接近翻倍

456
00:19:37,309 --> 00:19:38,589
这种级别的修正

457
00:19:38,589 --> 00:19:42,109
在成熟的大盘股中是极为罕见的

458
00:19:42,109 --> 00:19:43,849
核心驱动力来自两点

459
00:19:43,849 --> 00:19:46,659
一是AI基础设施需求爆发

460
00:19:46,659 --> 00:19:48,199
对高带宽内存

461
00:19:48,199 --> 00:19:52,558
HBM以及各类存储产品的需求全面抬升

462
00:19:52,558 --> 00:19:55,920
二呢是国防和高性能计算投入增加

463
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,440
进一步推高了半导体景气度

464
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,539
这些变化正在被分析师快速写进

465
00:20:01,539 --> 00:20:02,000
模型

466
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:03,900
直接就反映到盈利预测上

467
00:20:03,900 --> 00:20:07,460
存储股现在呢其实就处于一个利润暴涨

468
00:20:07,460 --> 00:20:09,809
但是估值却还不高的阶段

469
00:20:09,809 --> 00:20:11,289
从利润规模来看

470
00:20:11,289 --> 00:20:15,609
三星今年预计净利润会达到一千五百十亿美元

471
00:20:15,609 --> 00:20:18,349
SK海力士大约1150亿美元

472
00:20:18,349 --> 00:20:20,990
都远高于台积电的八百十亿美元

473
00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:22,789
但是在估值层面哈

474
00:20:22,789 --> 00:20:25,869
存储板块整体仍明显低于AI

475
00:20:25,869 --> 00:20:27,380
算力链其他龙头

476
00:20:27,380 --> 00:20:29,819
这种赚的多给的少的错配

477
00:20:29,819 --> 00:20:31,849
正是多头最看重的机会

478
00:20:31,849 --> 00:20:32,569
他们认为

479
00:20:32,569 --> 00:20:35,210
AI需求已经从HBM扩散到了

480
00:20:35,210 --> 00:20:37,829
d ram和闪存等通用产品

481
00:20:37,829 --> 00:20:38,170
行业

482
00:20:38,170 --> 00:20:40,589
正在进入一个供需紧张

483
00:20:40,589 --> 00:20:42,659
价格上行的新周期

484
00:20:42,659 --> 00:20:45,038
但是空头则坚持认为

485
00:20:45,038 --> 00:20:48,098
存储行业历来是强周期行业

486
00:20:48,098 --> 00:20:50,049
嗯盈利波动极大

487
00:20:50,049 --> 00:20:53,109
低估值是对这一个历史规律的合理定价

488
00:20:53,109 --> 00:20:55,509
市场需要更多的证据才会相信

489
00:20:55,509 --> 00:20:58,460
这一轮景气是结构性的深极哈

490
00:20:58,460 --> 00:21:00,700
而不是又一轮周期的顶点

491
00:21:00,700 --> 00:21:03,220
才能够给予更高的溢价

492
00:21:03,220 --> 00:21:06,880
就是呃存储不再是过去的存储啦

493
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,079
而是钮祜禄式存储

494
00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:12,180
接下来呢这个验证很快就会到来

495
00:21:12,180 --> 00:21:15,420
SK海力士将会在本周四公布财报

496
00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:17,140
三星紧随其后

497
00:21:17,140 --> 00:21:20,059
这两份财报很可能成为这一场高增长

498
00:21:20,059 --> 00:21:23,579
是否值得高估值争论的关键分水岭

499
00:21:23,579 --> 00:21:25,920
行今天我们就讲到这里

500
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:27,500
那我们明天见拜拜

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