思考致富

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今天高通盘后呢也是大涨啊

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我看现在是大涨了13%

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这个呢也是从3月份一直讲到现在

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中间呢很多兄弟也是哈哈过来指责啊

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我其实从始至终只要是我看好的东西

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我是坚定的看好

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只要我重仓的

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我从此中我也不会怀疑

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但这个过程啊

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其实我并不想得太多的解释

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因为了解一个行业和一个公司真的很难

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其实分享公司我给大家这么讲啊

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赚钱这个事啊

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他真的需要思考能力

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他不是天赋的问题啊

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就像高通这种公司

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大家为什么不看好

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因为手机确实是下滑的

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但你怎么样知道高通会怎么样呢

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你要看联发科

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真的哈

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各位如果你是我的会员

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你在群里面好好看我的文档

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如果你不是我的会员啊

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你可以学习学习我的思维方式

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实际上在赚钱这个事上

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我还是很有自信的

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因为我从小到今天为止啊

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0~1所有的事

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只要是我全程主导的

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我自己推动的

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然后哼我基本上都做成了

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没有一个失败

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唯二失败的跨境电商

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还有直播电商啊

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那是因为我确确实实把所有决策权给了团队

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他们是不具备生育能力的

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他们具备运营和执行能力

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但是呢在2020和21年那两年呢

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其实我的经历呢真的没有在这两件事上

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我是想着反正有钱了

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财务自由了

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我想过一个今天的状态大撒把

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兄弟们

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你们去干吧

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对我呢

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闲云野鹤是吧

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给大家做做后勤分一分

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实际上我后面也承认

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确实不是每个人都擅长做经营

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其实讲投资啊

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这3年多啊

53
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我一直想的是怎么样退出

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实际上投资这个事呢

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像改变一个人的命运一样

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改变一个人的财运

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特别是今年我有很多次我在想这个事儿

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我说我原来的计划是5年

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但是我希望呢5年期之内吧

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然后就不再给大家分享投资了

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然后聊聊生活

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聊聊感悟啊

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聊聊人生

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实际上我今年变化真的很大啊

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但是我呢还是想着把一些经验呢给大家讲

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毕竟不是每一个人和我的性格一样

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愿意思考

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每天想很多时间

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对我教给大家一个方法啊

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就是今天很多人认为有大魔瓶

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它可以替代很多咨询

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可以替代很多人的大脑

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替代很多人的思维方式

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我可以肯定的告诉大家哈

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大模型呢它可以顺着你的情绪来

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但是他真的不会反着来

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像高通似的

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你任何时候问高通

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在今天没有发财报之前

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但实际上你要怎么想呢

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高端行不行

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取决两个

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第一大家的预期怎么样

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如果大家预期很差

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他只要任何超越

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其他都很好

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第二个联发科怎么样

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你不信在群里面

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你看看

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那个时候我就发两个信息

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第一联发科

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第二安卓手机的销量

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你会发现一个问题

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安卓手机总共下滑了3%

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而且呢联发科的股价呢也是一直在突飞猛进

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各位你知道什么意思吗

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就如果联发科很好

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高通没有理由不好

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为什么

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因为联发科主要是中低端手机芯片

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然后高通的中高端

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中低端的影响最深最狠

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但是中高端的肯定比中低端的影响好

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就像我们今天讲消费品一样

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我说消费品的头部哈在2026年会非常好

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很多人说消费不行了

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不消费确实不行了

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但消费品的头部你可以看财报

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基本上都不会很差

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无论是伊利金龙鱼啊

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还是这个海天酱油啊

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还是茅台

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都不会差的很简单

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行业减少30%

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对手是死了

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50%多

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退20%

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让头部前前二给分了

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甚至前一独吞了

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所以呢如果你没有做过生意

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你是很难理解到这个点的

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就像我做很多无论是长期投资

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投机哈还是博弈

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我到今天可以肯定告诉大家比一般人强的多

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为什么呢

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第一投资角度呢你要谈三个点啊

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第一个呢有估值啊

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就内在价值的评估啊

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第二个呢就是市场先争

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就市场情绪的波动

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第三个呢就安全边际

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在什么价格买买入

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你是比较便宜的

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这三条呢它是一个价值的基石

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它中间包含了基本功

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技术

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还有人性的观察

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我在过去的16年

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我干的是基本功

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干的是技术

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但是呢我做IP之后呢

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我干的是人性的观察

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人性的研究

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我其实今天我可以这么来讲哈

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无论是对行业的分析

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对内在价值的分析

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对财报的分析

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我有99.9%的财

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基金利强多了

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说我懂生意

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对人性的分析呢

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这是这4年几百万粉丝

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包括我在做这个IP过程里面

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每天和成年上班人聊

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对人性基本上摸着八九

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这神基本上一个人跟我聊天

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他现在有多少钱

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将来有多少钱我都能聊出来

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大家去想

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如果今天我有了这个能力

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还有没有必要去讲

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或者说我今天有这个能力

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我只想让自己开心

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我其他的我什么都不想

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各位这是真实的想法

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这一点都不装逼哈

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实际上我的欲望呢并没有这么强

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原因很简单

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因为我没有什么特殊的消费

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第一对车没有兴趣

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第二对房无所谓

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第三个对女人完全没有特别的想法

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第四个呢我的爱好都这种散步爬山

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特别传统

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徒步中午花钱真的吃的都是野菜

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我没有花钱的爱好

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对我现在赚钱能力

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赚钱爱好有一点

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但是没有奢侈的爱好

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所以我就想我说我赚那钱干嘛

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我今天做的所有的分享

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我首先第一我是开心的对吧

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我有成就感

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我就干

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没有我就不干

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但是为什么分享这个过程理念

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为什么我很多时候并没有太多的成就感啊

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实际上我在分享的前3年我有成就感

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但今年为什么心态会慢慢的变了呢

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他的心态变了

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想赚快钱的人发现赚不了了

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对戾气很重

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我实在不想和力气中的人聊天

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第二个呢就大部分人呢太浮躁

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因为川普上台之后

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大家也知道哈

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这个世界呢变得零和博弈了

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川普他本身是个零和博弈的人

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然后呢全世界都看他的脸色

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所以当这个世界变得零和博弈以后呢

201
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那大家呢都会跟着这个盘子

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不由自主地受影响

203
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所以呢你看我呢也是这样的哈

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我不想受环境影响

205
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但是呢你不得不接受现实环境变的时候

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你得变

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就是我的原来的价值投资理念

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和今天这个现状呢其实都还有一点不匹配

209
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虽然我今年我今天我的账户收入又创新高了

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而且我坦诚告诉价已经过亿了

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这是哈我在去年定的目标真的是提前完成了啊

212
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去年我想了个目标

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呵呵真的

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所以呢我就经常想

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我说如果说我的人生目标全部完成

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而且呢我的兴趣爱好哈

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我的所有的想法对吧

218
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都是按照我的节奏来的

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我已经做到游刃有余

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我今天接下来的目的是什么啊

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这个也是我这两天啊一直在思考的啊

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那如果这事想明白呢

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我肯定还会继续的去想

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给别人带来价值是什么

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如果是想不明白呢

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我还会继续想哈哈

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我接下来要怎么搞

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能让自己开心

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让别人开心

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但是呢我做所有事前提我自己一定要非常开心

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这一点呢和别人不太一样哈

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因为我确确实实不是完全是因为钱

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或者因为什么而去做IP做直播

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因为我创业其实创了第4年我就财务自由了

235
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我一直做的还是蛮顺利的

236
00:08:03,939 --> 00:08:06,360
后面的所有的亏损栽跟头

237
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,639
其实那些事在我的整个盘子里面都是都是赚的

238
00:08:09,639 --> 00:08:14,060
就像我今天做整个账户的分配一样的

239
00:08:14,060 --> 00:08:15,379
就是不管大盘怎么跌

240
00:08:15,379 --> 00:08:16,500
我的跌幅有限

241
00:08:16,500 --> 00:08:17,620
不管大盘怎么涨

242
00:08:17,620 --> 00:08:19,100
我的涨的肯定比大盘高

243
00:08:19,100 --> 00:08:22,089
这就是我的做风险控制的一个核心

244
00:08:22,089 --> 00:08:23,490
这一点呢我可以笃定讲哈

245
00:08:23,490 --> 00:08:25,339
就是任何基金经理也好

246
00:08:25,339 --> 00:08:26,699
任何时候大模也好

247
00:08:26,699 --> 00:08:28,019
他达到我这种程度

248
00:08:28,019 --> 00:08:29,680
他确实要有16年的创业经验

249
00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:31,199
而且这16年的创业经验里面

250
00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:32,940
他每件事都要领导一做起来

251
00:08:32,940 --> 00:08:35,159
每件事都是要像我一样

252
00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:38,428
真正意义上每件事都要自己琢磨

253
00:08:38,428 --> 00:08:39,548
要自己操心

254
00:08:39,548 --> 00:08:41,480
要要真的事融会贯通

255
00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,399
投资决策有很多很多点啊

256
00:08:43,399 --> 00:08:45,279
这个点呢非常非常复杂

257
00:08:45,279 --> 00:08:47,600
而且呢哼他不是行业内的人

258
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:48,700
你很难去理解

259
00:08:48,700 --> 00:08:49,419
就像我讲的

260
00:08:49,419 --> 00:08:51,700
每家公司其实我都和内部的人沟通过啊

261
00:08:51,700 --> 00:08:52,220
包括高通

262
00:08:52,220 --> 00:08:54,068
我们前天有个博士来高通公司上班啊

263
00:08:54,068 --> 00:08:55,629
实际上我讲的每一家公司

264
00:08:55,629 --> 00:08:56,749
我很肯定告诉大家哈

265
00:08:56,749 --> 00:08:59,249
就他们内部的人理解是没有我深的

266
00:08:59,249 --> 00:09:00,708
因为我做生意的理解

267
00:09:00,708 --> 00:09:03,190
我不是说通过公开财报去分享

268
00:09:03,190 --> 00:09:03,990
我会逆向思考

269
00:09:03,990 --> 00:09:04,960
比如同样的高通

270
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,240
我会调研联发科啊

271
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:07,840
为调研所有安卓手机的销量啊

272
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,559
我会反复的验证这个销量对高通的影响

273
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:11,480
包括每个型号

274
00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:12,750
你可以去任何会员

275
00:09:12,750 --> 00:09:14,190
可以群里搜我的角度哈

276
00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:17,210
我大概从6~8个角度去验证一家公司

277
00:09:17,210 --> 00:09:19,269
但是一般的人他只会跟着

278
00:09:19,269 --> 00:09:20,549
要不巴菲特老段

279
00:09:20,549 --> 00:09:21,669
要不就博弈的角度

280
00:09:21,669 --> 00:09:22,409
他们和我不一样

281
00:09:22,409 --> 00:09:23,600
我永远都是诚意角度

282
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,600
所以这一点呢也是给大家讲啊

283
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:30,009
就是价值投资这个事啊啊就是赚钱很不难啊

284
00:09:30,009 --> 00:09:31,169
也不是很容易不难

285
00:09:31,169 --> 00:09:34,049
但是价值观在价值投里面起到觉醒的作用

286
00:09:34,049 --> 00:09:35,990
就像你永远不可能做事后

287
00:09:35,990 --> 00:09:37,980
诸葛亮永远不可能去说

288
00:09:37,980 --> 00:09:39,019
我事后总结一下

289
00:09:39,019 --> 00:09:40,039
那今天很多人说哦

290
00:09:40,039 --> 00:09:41,460
我要买了存储会怎么样呢

291
00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:43,700
不明天存储在跌20%的时候

292
00:09:43,700 --> 00:09:44,720
你就后悔买的成熟

293
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,279
你永远不会在20%到30跌幅时加仓

294
00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:48,820
我给大家肯定的讲哈

295
00:09:48,820 --> 00:09:50,210
有钱没钱

296
00:09:50,210 --> 00:09:51,610
所有人的表现

297
00:09:51,610 --> 00:09:53,610
你的价值观决定了你最终的结果

298
00:09:53,610 --> 00:09:55,078
而不是你的技术

299
00:09:55,078 --> 00:09:56,678
这一点我可以考虑的

300
00:09:56,678 --> 00:09:57,359
今天你没有钱

301
00:09:57,359 --> 00:09:58,278
不用担心你的价值观

302
00:09:58,278 --> 00:09:58,979
如果很OK

303
00:09:58,979 --> 00:10:00,058
你早晚会有钱的

304
00:10:00,058 --> 00:10:01,038
既然你有钱也白搭

305
00:10:01,038 --> 00:10:01,759
你价值观不OK

306
00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:02,839
你早晚会没钱的

307
00:10:02,839 --> 00:10:05,230
所以这个呢是我见了这么多人之后

308
00:10:05,230 --> 00:10:06,350
我得了一个总结哈

309
00:10:06,350 --> 00:10:08,509
但是各位这也是一个悖论

310
00:10:08,509 --> 00:10:09,090
在哪呢

311
00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:10,429
当你见了这么多人

312
00:10:10,429 --> 00:10:11,889
然后当你总结完之后

313
00:10:11,889 --> 00:10:16,490
你的哼对人性的理解欲望想法真的会变

314
00:10:16,490 --> 00:10:18,129
你会变得毫无兴趣

315
00:10:18,129 --> 00:10:19,710
这也是一个悖论

316
00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:21,549
所以这个东西也是无解的哈

317
00:10:21,549 --> 00:10:22,649
也希望大家去探讨

318
00:10:22,649 --> 00:10:24,529
我到今天我还在思考对

319
00:10:24,529 --> 00:10:26,389
就是你做这些事

320
00:10:26,389 --> 00:10:28,509
最终的结果和最终的欲望是什么

321
00:10:28,509 --> 00:10:29,029
当然了

322
00:10:29,029 --> 00:10:31,110
也希望大家呢在这个事上多去想一下啊

323
00:10:31,110 --> 00:10:34,460
我觉得我觉得确确实实很难想明白

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