BV1jpokBoESh · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,940 --> 00:00:01,659 你好 2 00:00:01,659 --> 00:00:02,500 我是阿尔 3 00:00:02,500 --> 00:00:04,540 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:04,540 --> 00:00:07,019 这是反转的第三节课 5 00:00:11,500 --> 00:00:14,419 要知道新手往往特别喜欢反转 6 00:00:16,019 --> 00:00:18,620 因为新手只考虑到了风险 7 00:00:19,890 --> 00:00:21,390 他们的账户很小 8 00:00:21,390 --> 00:00:24,170 而且他们极度害怕亏钱 9 00:00:24,539 --> 00:00:27,039 因为失去这个账户 10 00:00:27,039 --> 00:00:30,219 就意味着他们成为职业交易员的梦想破灭了 11 00:00:30,219 --> 00:00:31,239 正因如此 12 00:00:31,239 --> 00:00:34,340 他们总是寻找那些风险最小的交易 13 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,399 这往往意味着他们在寻找反转 14 00:00:37,399 --> 00:00:41,000 然而他们却完全忽视了另外两个变量 15 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,920 胜率和回报 16 00:00:43,679 --> 00:00:47,159 低风险的交易通常胜率也低 17 00:00:47,750 --> 00:00:48,890 换句话说 18 00:00:48,890 --> 00:00:50,990 大多数时候都会亏损 19 00:00:50,990 --> 00:00:53,670 我还会讲到买鸭和卖鸭 20 00:00:54,088 --> 00:00:57,460 他们是某一方可能获胜的早期迹象 21 00:00:57,579 --> 00:01:01,179 最后我会讲到嵌套式结构及小结构 22 00:01:01,179 --> 00:01:04,140 嵌套在更大的同类型结构中 23 00:01:05,150 --> 00:01:08,189 比如你可能会看到一个小的楔形 24 00:01:08,189 --> 00:01:11,670 它正好是一个更大的楔形中的第三段 25 00:01:17,219 --> 00:01:18,760 新手的账户很小 26 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:23,280 他非常努力的存钱才得到这个账户 27 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,400 所以非常害怕失去那笔钱 28 00:01:27,310 --> 00:01:31,030 因此交易时他非常关注风险 29 00:01:31,689 --> 00:01:34,189 后果就是他往往只看到反转 30 00:01:34,189 --> 00:01:36,478 而忽略了强趋势 31 00:01:36,679 --> 00:01:38,959 这是一个非常强的多头突破 32 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,278 新手会想好的 33 00:01:40,278 --> 00:01:41,638 这是第二做空信号 34 00:01:41,638 --> 00:01:43,090 这是第一做空信号 35 00:01:43,090 --> 00:01:43,849 这是第二 36 00:01:43,849 --> 00:01:46,109 也许这只是震荡区间中的一部分 37 00:01:46,109 --> 00:01:48,290 如果我在这根K线下方卖出 38 00:01:48,290 --> 00:01:49,489 我的止损就在这里 39 00:01:49,489 --> 00:01:50,689 我冒的风险不大 40 00:01:50,689 --> 00:01:53,489 但如果一路下跌到这里可以赚很多钱 41 00:01:53,489 --> 00:01:54,750 回报远超风险 42 00:01:54,750 --> 00:01:56,849 但他忽视了胜率 43 00:01:57,909 --> 00:02:00,010 在强势的多头反转之后 44 00:02:00,010 --> 00:02:02,189 再来一个这么强势的突破 45 00:02:02,189 --> 00:02:05,069 做空赚钱的成功率很低 46 00:02:05,620 --> 00:02:07,859 更有可能的是反转会失败 47 00:02:07,859 --> 00:02:08,939 变成牛骑 48 00:02:08,939 --> 00:02:11,180 然后继续上涨 49 00:02:14,699 --> 00:02:17,379 做空信号K线不是很大 50 00:02:17,379 --> 00:02:20,039 如果交易员在他的低点下方卖出 51 00:02:20,039 --> 00:02:22,599 订单会在这里成他的止损在这里 52 00:02:22,599 --> 00:02:24,780 所以风险很小 53 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,280 然而每当你冒的风险很小时 54 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,240 赚钱的概率通常也很小 55 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,120 也就意味着亏钱的概率很高 56 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:38,639 新手觉得到处都是反转的 57 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,219 可能他们总能在强势的上涨趋势中发现楔形顶 58 00:02:42,219 --> 00:02:46,699 却忽视了趋势的强度以及发生反转的概率很低 59 00:02:47,819 --> 00:02:49,719 新手特别急于做空 60 00:02:49,719 --> 00:02:52,590 甚至都不等到趋势线被跌破 61 00:02:52,710 --> 00:02:55,370 比方说这是一个上涨趋势 62 00:02:55,370 --> 00:02:56,770 趋势线被跌破 63 00:02:56,770 --> 00:02:58,689 新手总是想要做反转 64 00:02:58,689 --> 00:03:01,610 他不断的在强上涨趋势中做空 65 00:03:01,610 --> 00:03:04,330 然后不断的在强下降趋势中做多 66 00:03:05,650 --> 00:03:07,289 他在看到明显的卖压之前 67 00:03:07,289 --> 00:03:09,679 就做空三根阴线 68 00:03:09,679 --> 00:03:10,739 但很小 69 00:03:10,739 --> 00:03:12,658 而且下影线很明显 70 00:03:12,658 --> 00:03:14,919 并且阴线的体积比阳线小 71 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,419 像这里还有这里麦压非常小 72 00:03:18,419 --> 00:03:21,250 所以空投获胜的概率很低 73 00:03:21,689 --> 00:03:26,090 尽管你可以说这是三推楔型123 74 00:03:26,090 --> 00:03:28,650 但这低胜率的交易 75 00:03:29,629 --> 00:03:32,069 这也是低风险的代价 76 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,000 当突破如此强势时 77 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,199 三根连续的阳线收在最高 78 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,319 会有第二段上涨的概率非常大 79 00:03:44,699 --> 00:03:46,740 可能这就是第二段上涨 80 00:03:46,740 --> 00:03:48,719 但大概率还会涨更多 81 00:03:48,719 --> 00:03:51,019 如果这些阴线收在最低 82 00:03:51,019 --> 00:03:53,658 那么有可能上涨趋势即将结束 83 00:03:53,658 --> 00:03:55,479 但是由于下影线很长 84 00:03:55,479 --> 00:03:57,650 而且阴线体积很小 85 00:03:57,650 --> 00:04:01,569 大概率任何反转尝试都会变成牛骑 86 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,819 然后至少再有一段上涨 87 00:04:04,819 --> 00:04:07,520 现在做空还太早 88 00:04:11,699 --> 00:04:13,099 新手总是在想 89 00:04:13,099 --> 00:04:14,419 我怎么可能会亏钱 90 00:04:15,539 --> 00:04:18,180 我都这么努力的降低风险了 91 00:04:19,819 --> 00:04:20,678 亏钱 92 00:04:20,678 --> 00:04:22,098 因为他在与趋势作战 93 00:04:22,098 --> 00:04:24,978 而且交易的数学期望并不好 94 00:04:26,579 --> 00:04:29,420 新手容易忽视概率的存在 95 00:04:29,759 --> 00:04:32,560 他做这笔交易只是因为风险小 96 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:33,639 回报大 97 00:04:33,639 --> 00:04:35,788 盈亏比非常好 98 00:04:35,949 --> 00:04:38,428 如果他去看电视上的财经节目 99 00:04:38,428 --> 00:04:41,269 他听到的全都是盈亏比 100 00:04:42,879 --> 00:04:44,839 嗯我的风险很小 101 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,060 但是回报很大 102 00:04:46,060 --> 00:04:50,120 这么好的盈亏比一定是一笔非常好的交易 103 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,500 新手没有意识到的是 104 00:04:52,500 --> 00:04:55,269 电视上总是谈论盈亏比 105 00:04:55,509 --> 00:04:57,170 但很少讲过胜率 106 00:04:57,170 --> 00:05:00,649 然而对于交易者方程及数学期望 107 00:05:00,649 --> 00:05:03,990 胜率与风险和回报一样重要 108 00:05:12,339 --> 00:05:15,759 新手还认为如果做一笔交易可以赚钱 109 00:05:15,759 --> 00:05:17,600 那么做十笔交易就会更好 110 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,660 所以新手总是想做很多交易 111 00:05:19,660 --> 00:05:20,860 导致过度交易 112 00:05:20,860 --> 00:05:23,829 在上涨趋势中稍微有一点回调 113 00:05:23,829 --> 00:05:25,110 新手就去做空 114 00:05:25,110 --> 00:05:27,470 下降趋势中稍微有一点反弹 115 00:05:27,470 --> 00:05:29,629 新手就去做多 116 00:05:31,939 --> 00:05:34,360 失败的突破更低的高点 117 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,339 新手认为这是一个做空的机 118 00:05:36,339 --> 00:05:37,399 开仓做空了 119 00:05:37,399 --> 00:05:39,459 然后被止损了 120 00:05:41,500 --> 00:05:45,269 反转的第二入场点楔形顶一二 121 00:05:45,269 --> 00:05:47,290 期待突破震荡区间失败 122 00:05:47,290 --> 00:05:48,810 这是一个做空的机会 123 00:05:48,810 --> 00:05:51,310 然后又被止损了 124 00:05:53,439 --> 00:05:57,879 这里有一个低点稍微降低的双底突破回测 125 00:05:57,879 --> 00:06:00,019 突破震荡区间上沿后的回撤 126 00:06:00,019 --> 00:06:01,519 这是做多的机会 127 00:06:01,519 --> 00:06:04,600 但是他忽略了这个通道有多么窄 128 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,240 然后被止损 129 00:06:08,629 --> 00:06:10,129 新手再次买入 130 00:06:10,129 --> 00:06:14,910 因为好像是楔形牛骑123再次止损 131 00:06:14,910 --> 00:06:15,670 他忽略了 132 00:06:15,670 --> 00:06:19,389 这个反转发生在一个相当窄的下降通道中 133 00:06:19,389 --> 00:06:21,209 还有一个更大的下降通道 134 00:06:21,209 --> 00:06:23,110 同样也很窄 135 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:25,360 这是低胜率的做多机会 136 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:26,459 小反转 137 00:06:26,459 --> 00:06:28,500 多头能获得的最好结果 138 00:06:28,500 --> 00:06:31,360 可能也就是震荡区间而已 139 00:06:32,060 --> 00:06:33,620 再次尝试反转 140 00:06:33,620 --> 00:06:36,660 又有一个楔形123 141 00:06:36,660 --> 00:06:39,569 上一个楔形是123 142 00:06:39,569 --> 00:06:42,850 现在新手看到一个新的楔形一二 143 00:06:42,850 --> 00:06:45,329 但是他没考虑到这个做多信号 144 00:06:45,329 --> 00:06:46,009 K线并不好 145 00:06:46,009 --> 00:06:49,569 他也忽略了这两个大阴线和这里的大阴线 146 00:06:49,889 --> 00:06:53,050 新手只能看到一个楔形和一个更高的低点 147 00:06:53,050 --> 00:06:55,538 这肯定是一个楔形牛旗 148 00:06:56,019 --> 00:06:58,548 于是他再次被止损 149 00:06:58,709 --> 00:07:00,689 所有的这些亏损都不大 150 00:07:00,689 --> 00:07:03,829 然而如果你累积了很多次小止损 151 00:07:03,829 --> 00:07:07,069 他们加起来就是一个很大的亏损 152 00:07:09,379 --> 00:07:10,560 积少成多 153 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,300 水滴石穿 154 00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:16,699 新手尝试避免风险 155 00:07:16,699 --> 00:07:19,370 他尝试进行低风险交易 156 00:07:19,370 --> 00:07:21,850 然而胜率也很低 157 00:07:21,850 --> 00:07:25,279 如果你频繁的在低风险交易中亏损 158 00:07:25,279 --> 00:07:28,939 这些低风险会在收盘时累积成很大的风险 159 00:07:28,939 --> 00:07:33,199 最终新手在低风险交易里面亏了很多钱 160 00:07:38,620 --> 00:07:40,899 新手知道这是一个糟糕的做空机会 161 00:07:40,899 --> 00:07:42,379 他知道这是一个糟糕的做多 162 00:07:42,379 --> 00:07:43,560 他管不了那么多 163 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,408 他知道整体背景不好 164 00:07:45,408 --> 00:07:47,288 但他只关注一件事风险 165 00:07:48,608 --> 00:07:51,649 他不想在每笔交易上冒太大的风险 166 00:07:51,649 --> 00:07:53,209 甚至在某个时候 167 00:07:53,209 --> 00:07:55,029 由于亏损过于频繁 168 00:07:55,029 --> 00:07:55,889 以至于他 169 00:07:55,889 --> 00:07:57,810 但他觉得自己交易继续交易 170 00:07:57,810 --> 00:08:00,158 因为交易员的工作就是交易 171 00:08:00,158 --> 00:08:01,639 于是他们不断交易 172 00:08:01,639 --> 00:08:05,298 二如果职业交易员发现某个策略连续亏损 173 00:08:05,298 --> 00:08:07,358 他们就会停手 174 00:08:07,910 --> 00:08:09,699 但新手不会停手 175 00:08:09,699 --> 00:08:12,579 新手认为他们只需要稍微再进步一点 176 00:08:12,579 --> 00:08:14,139 他们就能扭亏为盈 177 00:08:14,139 --> 00:08:15,339 可惜这并非现实 178 00:08:15,339 --> 00:08:17,360 在强上涨趋势中做空 179 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,620 或者在强下降趋势中做多 180 00:08:19,620 --> 00:08:20,660 你会亏钱 181 00:08:20,660 --> 00:08:22,339 即使每次亏损很少 182 00:08:22,339 --> 00:08:23,860 但你会经常亏损 183 00:08:23,860 --> 00:08:26,850 最终会亏掉账户里的所有钱 184 00:08:30,839 --> 00:08:33,679 每当你进行一笔交易并感到充满希望 185 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:34,620 老天保佑 186 00:08:34,620 --> 00:08:36,899 真希望这让我赚一步吧 187 00:08:36,899 --> 00:08:38,379 我亏了一整天了 188 00:08:38,379 --> 00:08:39,679 就让我成功一次吧 189 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,179 这已经表明了一件事 190 00:08:41,179 --> 00:08:42,568 胜率很低 191 00:08:42,568 --> 00:08:45,629 每当你需要用到希望甚至祈祷的时候 192 00:08:45,629 --> 00:08:48,369 你这笔交易基本都会亏钱 193 00:08:55,039 --> 00:08:56,720 新手亏损过于频繁 194 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,279 因为他们在做低胜率的交易 195 00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:02,820 也就是说他们大概率会亏损 196 00:09:02,820 --> 00:09:04,039 而且不断的亏损 197 00:09:04,039 --> 00:09:06,059 当他们终于有盈利的交易时 198 00:09:06,059 --> 00:09:08,980 他们会立即平仓值变成了包头皮交易 199 00:09:08,980 --> 00:09:09,840 但忘记了 200 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,578 他们需要一个很大的利润来弥补所有小的亏损 201 00:09:13,578 --> 00:09:16,019 所以他们不仅在做低胜率交易 202 00:09:16,019 --> 00:09:17,759 经常亏损 203 00:09:17,919 --> 00:09:20,100 而且当他们最终盈利时 204 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:21,120 他们却只赚一 205 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,899 当你进行低胜率交易时 206 00:09:22,899 --> 00:09:26,480 你需要一个非常大的回报来弥补概率的劣势 207 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,019 这意味着你需要做波段交易 208 00:09:29,019 --> 00:09:31,889 然而新手如此渴望胜利 209 00:09:31,889 --> 00:09:34,509 害怕再也至于他赚了一点点就离场了 210 00:09:34,509 --> 00:09:36,529 变成了收购失败的策略 211 00:09:36,529 --> 00:09:38,169 注对于低收但胜率低 212 00:09:38,169 --> 00:09:39,129 低风险的交易 213 00:09:39,129 --> 00:09:41,179 亏比差不可能赚钱 214 00:09:41,179 --> 00:09:45,379 你需要偶尔大赚才能抵消所有的这些小亏损 215 00:09:45,620 --> 00:09:47,200 新手就是做不到这一点 216 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:48,759 这次总算不亏钱了 217 00:09:48,759 --> 00:09:49,899 他们感到高兴 218 00:09:49,899 --> 00:09:51,940 所以他们迅速同时害怕盈利 219 00:09:51,940 --> 00:09:53,659 这是一个失败的策略 220 00:09:53,659 --> 00:09:55,559 如果你做低胜率的交易 221 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,399 你不能只赚小钱嗯 222 00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:04,818 在这里做空的新手亏损了 223 00:10:04,818 --> 00:10:07,778 他在这里再次做空并获得盈利 224 00:10:07,778 --> 00:10:11,538 他飞行顶粉做空终于盈利了 225 00:10:12,299 --> 00:10:15,539 但他看到前两笔交易都是有一些小盈利 226 00:10:15,539 --> 00:10:17,179 然后很快变成亏损 227 00:10:17,179 --> 00:10:20,289 他之前在这里做空盈利很快变成了亏损 228 00:10:20,289 --> 00:10:22,250 他害怕同样的事情再次发生 229 00:10:22,250 --> 00:10:22,730 剥头皮 230 00:10:22,730 --> 00:10:23,629 于是在这里 231 00:10:23,629 --> 00:10:26,009 因为他太害怕亏损了 232 00:10:28,139 --> 00:10:32,500 低胜率加低回报显然是一种失败的策略 233 00:10:32,500 --> 00:10:34,980 数学期望是负的 234 00:10:35,100 --> 00:10:37,440 如果你要做那种低胜率的交易 235 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,100 你就必须坚定持有 236 00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:41,139 做波段交易 237 00:10:42,149 --> 00:10:45,909 你需要偶尔大赚来弥补平凡的小亏 238 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,580 所以当你做低胜率交易时 239 00:10:49,580 --> 00:10:52,639 要想树立需要一个非常大的回报 240 00:10:53,500 --> 00:10:55,980 你必须做波段交易 241 00:10:59,820 --> 00:11:01,440 这里是另一个例子 242 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,940 上涨趋势很多 243 00:11:03,940 --> 00:11:06,860 三推楔形顶123 244 00:11:06,860 --> 00:11:09,340 你可以画出很多很多楔形顶 245 00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:11,429 123 246 00:11:12,590 --> 00:11:16,649 123突破前期高点失败 247 00:11:16,649 --> 00:11:20,330 第二做空信号可能是楔形顶一二 248 00:11:20,330 --> 00:11:21,769 这是第二做空信号 249 00:11:21,769 --> 00:11:24,210 但这些交易最终都是亏钱的 250 00:11:24,210 --> 00:11:26,759 然而新手却想笨 251 00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:28,019 如果我在这里做空 252 00:11:28,019 --> 00:11:29,360 我不会亏很多钱 253 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:30,750 如果我在这里做空 254 00:11:30,750 --> 00:11:32,509 我的止损不会亏很多钱 255 00:11:32,509 --> 00:11:34,809 在这里做空不会亏很多 256 00:11:34,809 --> 00:11:36,750 但如果你一整天都在亏损 257 00:11:36,750 --> 00:11:39,549 这些小亏损就会积少成多 258 00:11:40,490 --> 00:11:43,730 低胜率意味着大多数时间会亏损 259 00:11:45,129 --> 00:11:46,690 即使每次亏损很少 260 00:11:46,690 --> 00:11:49,355 他们也会累积成大亏损 261 00:11:51,899 --> 00:11:53,820 一整天都在小止损 262 00:11:53,820 --> 00:11:57,019 导致收盘时变成很大的亏损 263 00:12:01,519 --> 00:12:03,059 正如刚才所说 264 00:12:03,059 --> 00:12:05,399 当你最终好不容易有一笔盈利时 265 00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:07,809 你赚的钱不足以抵消所有的亏损 266 00:12:07,809 --> 00:12:08,850 因为你赚了一点点 267 00:12:08,850 --> 00:12:10,450 就如果你做低胜率交易 268 00:12:10,450 --> 00:12:12,740 你就需要大的回报 269 00:12:13,059 --> 00:12:16,500 低胜率交易与波段交易密切相关 270 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,519 如果你想要做包头皮交易 271 00:12:19,519 --> 00:12:21,500 你就必须做高胜率的交易 272 00:12:21,500 --> 00:12:23,419 在窄上涨通道中做空 273 00:12:23,419 --> 00:12:26,220 显然不是高胜率的做法 274 00:12:28,539 --> 00:12:31,220 有经验的交易员也看到了这些反转 275 00:12:31,220 --> 00:12:32,500 但他们没有做空 276 00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:37,230 他们在等待这些反转失败变成牛骑 277 00:12:38,668 --> 00:12:40,649 然后他们买入做多 278 00:12:40,649 --> 00:12:42,509 他们看到了向下的反转 279 00:12:42,509 --> 00:12:44,629 他们知道大概率不会反转 280 00:12:44,629 --> 00:12:48,870 下跌更可能会变成牛骑反转 281 00:12:48,870 --> 00:12:50,590 他们会买入做反转 282 00:12:50,590 --> 00:12:51,809 他们会买入 283 00:12:51,809 --> 00:12:53,289 并且把止损放在这里 284 00:12:53,289 --> 00:12:54,230 反转下跌 285 00:12:54,230 --> 00:12:56,620 他们会在重新上涨时买入 286 00:12:56,620 --> 00:12:57,879 反转下跌 287 00:12:57,879 --> 00:13:00,080 他们会在重新上涨时买入 288 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,059 并且把止损放在这里 289 00:13:02,059 --> 00:13:04,629 高胜率风险更大 290 00:13:04,629 --> 00:13:07,190 如果他们在这里买入他们的止损 291 00:13:07,190 --> 00:13:08,409 但胜率非常高 292 00:13:08,409 --> 00:13:12,269 风险更高的交易赚钱也更容易 293 00:13:14,539 --> 00:13:17,419 因为概率的优势非常大 294 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,679 接下来我想讲一讲买鸭和卖压 295 00:13:23,799 --> 00:13:28,240 他们是暗示某一方将获胜并突破的最早的信号 296 00:13:31,419 --> 00:13:33,940 如果你在寻找大反转 297 00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:36,590 意味着你在寻找一个大幅的移动 298 00:13:36,590 --> 00:13:39,210 至少两段20根K线 299 00:13:39,210 --> 00:13:43,230 这通常不是由一个小的结构所能制造的 300 00:13:48,919 --> 00:13:50,519 如果是下降趋势 301 00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:51,639 想要反转 302 00:13:51,639 --> 00:13:53,840 需要足够大的买压 303 00:13:54,389 --> 00:13:56,349 你可以从两个非常大的 304 00:13:56,349 --> 00:13:59,568 收在最高的阳线中获得这种买压 305 00:13:59,568 --> 00:14:02,208 你也可以从十个较小的阳线中获得 306 00:14:02,208 --> 00:14:04,168 这这里的买压是足够大的 307 00:14:04,168 --> 00:14:06,990 阳线大阳线收在最高 308 00:14:06,990 --> 00:14:09,470 然后有更大的阳线收在高位 309 00:14:10,909 --> 00:14:13,379 这样的买压是足够大的 310 00:14:13,379 --> 00:14:17,259 交易者会在下一次下跌之后买入做反转 311 00:14:17,259 --> 00:14:20,620 有可能是低点抬高的大反转 312 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,840 最初这可能只是小反转意义 313 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,200 这里的K线数量不够多 314 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:34,340 然而如果在这个小反转中获得足够的买压 315 00:14:34,340 --> 00:14:37,629 这里这可能也是一个小反转 316 00:14:37,629 --> 00:14:42,110 它可以导致在下一次下跌之后形成大反转 317 00:14:45,259 --> 00:14:48,360 小反转后面大概率是震荡区间 318 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,070 然而他制造了足够大的买压 319 00:14:51,070 --> 00:14:54,740 强势突破下降通道以及一次更强的突破 320 00:14:54,740 --> 00:14:57,279 下一次向下的突破可能会失败 321 00:14:57,279 --> 00:15:00,179 然后会有大的反转上涨 322 00:15:03,539 --> 00:15:05,639 低点抬高的双底大反转 323 00:15:05,639 --> 00:15:07,940 并带来了上涨的波段 324 00:15:14,860 --> 00:15:16,480 这里有两根阳线 325 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:17,580 一根阳线 326 00:15:17,580 --> 00:15:19,769 2~4根小阳线 327 00:15:19,889 --> 00:15:22,009 这里有三根上涨的小阳线 328 00:15:22,009 --> 00:15:25,159 这些买压都不足以反转下降趋势 329 00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:28,799 任何上涨的尝试更有可能都只是多头 330 00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:32,559 需要更多的大阳线才能制造大反转 331 00:15:34,179 --> 00:15:36,059 反转成为上涨趋势 332 00:15:36,059 --> 00:15:39,539 而不是变成熊奇或震荡区间 333 00:15:48,460 --> 00:15:50,259 回忆一下市场周期的内容 334 00:15:50,259 --> 00:15:53,080 下降趋势通常要先过渡到震荡区间 335 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,980 然后才变成上涨趋势 336 00:15:57,419 --> 00:15:59,059 然而在震荡区间内 337 00:15:59,059 --> 00:16:01,019 多头可以制造足够大的买压 338 00:16:02,259 --> 00:16:06,059 最终制造出成功的大反转和上涨趋势 339 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,480 最终会有足够大的买压 340 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,480 制造出成功的大反转和上涨趋势 341 00:16:17,639 --> 00:16:20,720 下降趋势演变为震荡区间 342 00:16:21,169 --> 00:16:24,929 也许是低点稍微抬高的双底大反转 343 00:16:27,159 --> 00:16:30,360 多头开始制造出收在高位的大阳线 344 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,720 这是就买压增加了 345 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,779 多头最终制造出上涨趋势的概率 346 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,700 低点抬高的大反转 347 00:16:41,700 --> 00:16:45,659 多头可以在那个阳线的高点上方用突破单买入 348 00:16:45,659 --> 00:16:48,700 然后把保护性止损放在下面 349 00:16:51,659 --> 00:16:52,820 再次强调 350 00:16:52,820 --> 00:16:55,379 如果缺乏买鸭或卖压反转 351 00:16:55,379 --> 00:16:57,340 可能只是小反转 352 00:16:59,419 --> 00:17:00,600 三根阴线 353 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:01,679 四根阴线 354 00:17:01,679 --> 00:17:03,899 这足以制造出大反转吗 355 00:17:03,899 --> 00:17:05,019 大概率不行 356 00:17:05,019 --> 00:17:07,720 空投能得到的最好结果也就是一个 357 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,289 更有可能的是回调变成牛骑 358 00:17:10,289 --> 00:17:11,450 然后上涨趋势 359 00:17:11,450 --> 00:17:13,890 这是一个高点抬高的大反转吗 360 00:17:13,890 --> 00:17:16,490 这里并没有足够的脉压 361 00:17:16,940 --> 00:17:19,619 大概率会进入震荡区间 362 00:17:20,829 --> 00:17:22,509 而在震荡区间内 363 00:17:22,509 --> 00:17:24,349 空投可以积累大量的阴线 364 00:17:25,430 --> 00:17:29,190 在那之后他们有机会制造大反转 365 00:17:33,619 --> 00:17:34,940 卖压不足 366 00:17:34,940 --> 00:17:36,559 更有可能横盘 367 00:17:36,559 --> 00:17:37,880 而不是下跌 368 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:38,920 小反转 369 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,099 更可能变成牛起或震荡区间 370 00:17:50,319 --> 00:17:53,019 上涨趋势这里有一个小反转 371 00:17:53,019 --> 00:17:56,049 这里还有一个这个可能也是小反转 372 00:17:56,049 --> 00:17:58,650 我不会把它看作一个重要的楔形顶 373 00:17:58,650 --> 00:18:00,390 因为每段下跌都很小 374 00:18:00,390 --> 00:18:01,509 麦压不足 375 00:18:01,509 --> 00:18:03,900 更有可能会导致两段横盘 376 00:18:03,900 --> 00:18:06,660 而不是一个大的下降趋势 377 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:18,039 卖压的一个标志是明显向下跌破上涨趋势线 378 00:18:18,039 --> 00:18:19,599 就像这里 379 00:18:21,039 --> 00:18:23,420 它是由一系列小的K线构成的 380 00:18:23,420 --> 00:18:24,740 K线虽然小 381 00:18:24,740 --> 00:18:25,319 但数量 382 00:18:25,319 --> 00:18:29,519 并且它通过横盘远远跌破了上涨趋势线 383 00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:30,940 对交易者而言 384 00:18:30,940 --> 00:18:32,920 这就足够了 385 00:18:33,079 --> 00:18:34,299 在这个时候 386 00:18:34,299 --> 00:18:35,599 你回过头看 387 00:18:35,599 --> 00:18:36,700 麦芽不多 388 00:18:36,700 --> 00:18:37,660 麦压不多 389 00:18:37,660 --> 00:18:39,579 但他们在逐渐累积 390 00:18:39,859 --> 00:18:43,460 现在上涨趋势线被远远的跌破了 391 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,319 再次上涨之后 392 00:18:45,319 --> 00:18:47,460 交易者会在前期高点附近 393 00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:49,500 寻找多头失败的反转信号 394 00:18:49,500 --> 00:18:51,759 然后做大反转 395 00:18:56,660 --> 00:18:58,579 从上涨到下跌的反转 396 00:18:58,579 --> 00:19:00,819 首先需要一些卖压 397 00:19:01,659 --> 00:19:04,699 它通常出现在震荡区间里面 398 00:19:05,349 --> 00:19:08,029 就像这里先是上涨趋势 399 00:19:08,029 --> 00:19:09,869 然后在震荡区间里面 400 00:19:09,869 --> 00:19:12,549 空投可以积累足够的卖压 401 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:19,319 逐渐控制市场并形成下降趋势 402 00:19:22,539 --> 00:19:24,019 上涨趋势在减弱 403 00:19:24,019 --> 00:19:25,460 仍然是上涨趋势 404 00:19:25,460 --> 00:19:26,539 仍然是上涨趋势 405 00:19:26,539 --> 00:19:29,240 从这次回调开始进入了震荡区间 406 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,980 市场从上涨趋势过渡到震荡区间 407 00:19:31,980 --> 00:19:33,880 然后进入下降趋势 408 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,900 同时震荡区间通常在上涨趋势 409 00:19:37,900 --> 00:19:39,599 上涨的最后这部分就开始了 410 00:19:39,599 --> 00:19:42,480 也属于之后震荡区间中的一段 411 00:19:43,970 --> 00:19:45,630 空投开始积累卖压 412 00:19:45,630 --> 00:19:49,970 并且在某个时刻他们变得足够强大 413 00:19:49,970 --> 00:19:52,089 可以掌控市场 414 00:19:52,940 --> 00:19:56,509 例如这里有一个高点降低的大反转 415 00:19:56,509 --> 00:19:57,769 高点略低 416 00:19:57,769 --> 00:20:00,869 三次向上推动一阴线 417 00:20:00,869 --> 00:20:02,430 二阴线 418 00:20:02,430 --> 00:20:06,569 然后三高点降低的楔形顶大反转 419 00:20:06,569 --> 00:20:09,009 40%的概率会有下跌的波段 420 00:20:09,009 --> 00:20:10,109 合理的做空机会 421 00:20:10,109 --> 00:20:11,650 回报远大于风险 422 00:20:11,650 --> 00:20:13,450 胜率为40% 423 00:20:13,450 --> 00:20:14,750 通常情况下 424 00:20:14,750 --> 00:20:17,150 这就是大反转的概率 425 00:20:17,630 --> 00:20:19,630 但回报至少是风险的两倍 426 00:20:20,910 --> 00:20:23,630 因此数学期望是正的 427 00:20:28,220 --> 00:20:31,640 这节课的最后我想讲一下嵌套式结构 428 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,059 小结构嵌套在同类型的大结构中 429 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,599 被嵌套的小结构通常位于大结构的最后一段 430 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:47,920 有时可能更大 431 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,880 也许可以占据大结构的2/3 432 00:20:54,460 --> 00:20:57,019 三次向上推动一二 433 00:20:57,019 --> 00:20:58,720 所以这是楔形上涨 434 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,299 他在一个更大的楔形内 435 00:21:02,589 --> 00:21:04,170 三次更大的推动 436 00:21:04,170 --> 00:21:05,609 一回调 437 00:21:05,609 --> 00:21:07,730 二回调三 438 00:21:07,730 --> 00:21:10,109 第三推可以再细分为一个小楔形 439 00:21:10,109 --> 00:21:12,119 123 440 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,579 所以有一个小楔形嵌套在更大的楔形中 441 00:21:15,579 --> 00:21:18,160 因此这是一个嵌套式楔形的结构 442 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,160 它有更高的概率发生反转 443 00:21:26,460 --> 00:21:29,299 如果你查看一个较小时间周期的K线图 444 00:21:29,299 --> 00:21:32,019 这一段实际上是一个大的结构 445 00:21:33,049 --> 00:21:36,170 比如说如果这是60分钟K线图 446 00:21:36,170 --> 00:21:37,730 你切换到5分钟图 447 00:21:37,730 --> 00:21:40,240 这会是一个相当大的结构 448 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:41,680 四小时下跌 449 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,599 3~4小时的下跌 450 00:21:43,599 --> 00:21:46,960 如果从更小的时间周期上去看一个小结构 451 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,480 它就会变成一个大的结构 452 00:21:54,279 --> 00:21:56,619 在两个或更多的时间周期上 453 00:21:56,619 --> 00:22:00,640 市场尝试做同样赚钱的概率就更加大了 454 00:22:05,039 --> 00:22:07,740 看这里三次向下推动阴线 455 00:22:07,740 --> 00:22:11,579 阳线阴线这个下影线就是第二推 456 00:22:11,579 --> 00:22:13,779 然后这里是第三推 457 00:22:13,869 --> 00:22:15,549 这是一个楔形笔 458 00:22:15,549 --> 00:22:16,670 非常小 459 00:22:16,670 --> 00:22:18,710 在这个时间周期上很小 460 00:22:18,710 --> 00:22:20,430 如果这是日K线图 461 00:22:20,430 --> 00:22:21,970 那么在5分钟图上 462 00:22:21,970 --> 00:22:25,829 这就是一个持续了六天的很大的楔形底 463 00:22:26,619 --> 00:22:28,579 这个三推结构略微大一些 464 00:22:28,579 --> 00:22:33,140 这个小楔形123在一个更大的楔形内 465 00:22:33,140 --> 00:22:35,420 123 466 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:38,759 这里是一个更大的楔形 467 00:22:38,759 --> 00:22:42,449 一反弹二反弹三 468 00:22:42,449 --> 00:22:43,808 在更大的楔形内 469 00:22:43,808 --> 00:22:49,640 123外面还有更大的楔形123 470 00:22:50,539 --> 00:22:52,339 所以在大楔形底的内部 471 00:22:52,339 --> 00:22:54,920 层层嵌套了好多个小楔形 472 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,779 然后在这里有一个好的做多信号K线 473 00:22:57,779 --> 00:22:59,720 所以至少有两段上涨 474 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,640 至少横盘的概率就更高了 475 00:23:05,519 --> 00:23:08,789 当你可以用很多方法画出相同的结构时 476 00:23:08,789 --> 00:23:12,130 说明市场正在尝试从许多不同的时间周期 477 00:23:12,130 --> 00:23:14,670 但是在同一个价格进行反转 478 00:23:14,670 --> 00:23:17,890 电脑程序会至少发现其中一个楔形底 479 00:23:17,890 --> 00:23:21,890 这意味着大多数程序将会寻找楔形反转的机会 480 00:23:21,890 --> 00:23:24,329 如果所有这些计算机都在计划买入 481 00:23:24,329 --> 00:23:27,414 那么反转发生的概率就会更高 482 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,279 如果在这么多楔形底的第三推汇聚的地方 483 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,359 出现了一个好的做多信号 484 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,299 K线做多的胜率就会非常高 485 00:23:52,940 --> 00:23:55,099 当市场处于震荡区间时 486 00:23:55,099 --> 00:23:58,779 大多数反转会变成震荡区间内的一个波段 487 00:23:59,339 --> 00:24:01,940 所以最终结果是一个大的震荡区间 488 00:24:01,940 --> 00:24:04,259 而不是相反的趋势 489 00:24:06,700 --> 00:24:08,480 低点抬高的大反转 490 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,259 但这里有很多震荡区间的价格行为 491 00:24:11,259 --> 00:24:12,750 一直到这里 492 00:24:12,750 --> 00:24:14,990 几根大阴线跟随不好 493 00:24:14,990 --> 00:24:16,089 下影线很长 494 00:24:16,089 --> 00:24:18,089 跟随不好反弹 495 00:24:18,089 --> 00:24:20,230 上影线很长阴线 496 00:24:20,230 --> 00:24:22,730 这看起来像是震荡区间的价格行为 497 00:24:22,730 --> 00:24:24,089 就算是大反转 498 00:24:24,089 --> 00:24:27,410 他更可能会变成一个大的震荡区间 499 00:24:32,500 --> 00:24:35,519 低点抬高的大反转上涨趋势 500 00:24:35,519 --> 00:24:36,579 但跟随不好 501 00:24:36,579 --> 00:24:37,460 跟随不好 502 00:24:37,460 --> 00:24:38,519 跟随不好 503 00:24:38,519 --> 00:24:39,559 跟随不好 504 00:24:39,559 --> 00:24:42,960 这更有可能是震荡区间的一段上涨 505 00:24:43,769 --> 00:24:48,109 因此交易者会在高点附近寻找卖出做空的结构 506 00:24:48,109 --> 00:24:49,769 这里有一个楔形顶 507 00:24:49,769 --> 00:24:52,150 有两种方式来画楔形顶 508 00:24:52,150 --> 00:24:57,099 123以及123 509 00:24:57,619 --> 00:24:59,859 所以这是一个嵌套式楔形 510 00:24:59,859 --> 00:25:00,980 第一推 511 00:25:00,980 --> 00:25:01,940 第二推 512 00:25:01,940 --> 00:25:05,460 然后第三推可以细分为更小的结构 513 00:25:07,519 --> 00:25:09,700 这里也是一个mm目标位 514 00:25:09,700 --> 00:25:11,759 震荡区间被向上突破 515 00:25:11,759 --> 00:25:14,039 交易者在测量项上的M 516 00:25:14,039 --> 00:25:16,180 他们预计在那里会有止盈和阻力 517 00:25:16,180 --> 00:25:19,099 此外市场也在测试前期的高点 518 00:25:19,099 --> 00:25:20,839 所以这里也会有一些止盈 519 00:25:20,839 --> 00:25:23,579 空投会寻找做空的机会 520 00:25:24,269 --> 00:25:25,549 阴线收在最低 521 00:25:26,990 --> 00:25:28,109 多头会止盈 522 00:25:28,109 --> 00:25:30,829 激进的空头会做空 523 00:25:35,779 --> 00:25:37,259 每当出现大反转 524 00:25:37,259 --> 00:25:38,220 下降趋势 525 00:25:38,220 --> 00:25:41,859 多头突破低点抬高的大反转 526 00:25:42,059 --> 00:25:46,500 40%的概率会有一个像这样的波段交易 527 00:25:47,410 --> 00:25:48,670 大多数时间 528 00:25:48,670 --> 00:25:51,809 这个波段交易会变成一个大的震荡区间 529 00:25:51,809 --> 00:25:53,849 它演变成了一个震荡区间 530 00:25:53,849 --> 00:25:55,809 只有20%的时间里 531 00:25:55,809 --> 00:25:59,730 大反转会发展成一个很大很大的趋势 532 00:26:00,609 --> 00:26:02,750 你可以在下降趋势的末尾做多 533 00:26:02,750 --> 00:26:04,349 40%的时间里 534 00:26:04,349 --> 00:26:06,400 可以赚有20%的时间 535 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,000 波段会变成一个很大的上涨趋势 536 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,640 40%概率可以赚到一个上涨的波段 537 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,279 然后演变成一个大的震荡区间 538 00:26:21,940 --> 00:26:22,859 一个趋势 539 00:26:22,859 --> 00:26:24,460 这里是一个下降趋势 540 00:26:24,460 --> 00:26:26,779 通常之后会变成一个震荡区间 541 00:26:26,779 --> 00:26:28,440 这里就是一个震荡区间 542 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,450 但最终变成了一个非常大的震荡区间 543 00:26:33,180 --> 00:26:36,259 通常上涨趋势不会直接变成下降趋势 544 00:26:36,259 --> 00:26:38,859 下降趋势也不会直接变成上涨趋势 545 00:26:38,859 --> 00:26:40,869 通常你最多得到一个 546 00:26:40,869 --> 00:26:43,789 20~40根K线的反转波段 547 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,000 这个下降趋势波段跟随并不好 548 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,900 看起来像是震荡区间中的一段下跌 549 00:26:52,900 --> 00:26:57,818 同样这个下降趋势波段高于前期的这个低点 550 00:26:57,818 --> 00:26:59,259 低于前期的这个高点 551 00:26:59,259 --> 00:27:03,358 说明这段下跌也只是大震荡区间中的一段 552 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,079 上涨趋势没有连续的大阳线 553 00:27:10,079 --> 00:27:11,519 收在最高 554 00:27:11,700 --> 00:27:12,960 这里有几个 555 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:14,200 但跟随不好 556 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,140 然后这里的跟随也不好 557 00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:18,279 只是震荡区间中的一段上涨 558 00:27:18,279 --> 00:27:20,819 而不是一个上涨趋势 559 00:27:25,819 --> 00:27:28,500 这节课我讲到了为什么新手喜欢反转 560 00:27:29,500 --> 00:27:31,609 因为他们只看到了风险 561 00:27:31,609 --> 00:27:33,369 他们忽略了一个事实 562 00:27:33,369 --> 00:27:36,579 每当你进行一笔风险很小的交易 563 00:27:36,940 --> 00:27:38,619 他的胜率通常也很小 564 00:27:39,859 --> 00:27:42,180 这意味着你大多数时间会亏损 565 00:27:42,180 --> 00:27:44,579 而且这通常是一种糟糕的策略 566 00:27:44,579 --> 00:27:46,960 因为新手往往无法和卖持有 567 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,059 做到偶尔大赚 568 00:27:48,059 --> 00:27:49,279 如果趋势要反转 569 00:27:49,279 --> 00:27:51,539 假设当前市场是上涨趋势 570 00:27:51,539 --> 00:27:55,329 而你想做空市场通常不会直接变成下降趋势 571 00:27:55,329 --> 00:27:58,150 直到有一些卖压的累积才行 572 00:27:59,519 --> 00:28:02,319 同样当你看见一个下降趋势 573 00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:03,400 你想尝试做做 574 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,809 在反转前需要看到买压的累积 575 00:28:07,289 --> 00:28:08,730 这些买压和卖压 576 00:28:08,730 --> 00:28:11,690 通常出现在过度的震荡区间里面 577 00:28:12,710 --> 00:28:15,980 通常趋势必须过渡到一个震荡区间 578 00:28:16,299 --> 00:28:18,259 然后才能成为相反的趋势 579 00:28:19,460 --> 00:28:21,400 最后我谈到了嵌套式结构 580 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,450 小结构嵌套在一个相似的更大的结构中 581 00:28:26,099 --> 00:28:28,720 当你发现一个嵌套式的反转结构 582 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,980 胜率就会更高 583 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,160 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 584 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,839 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程反转的 585 00:28:38,839 --> 00:28:41,180 第三节课就讲到这里
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