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BV1jmdqB3Ema · 请不要叫我梁同学
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发布时间 2026-04-17 10:05
时长 14分44秒
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原始字幕、评论和弹幕默认折叠,作为学习核查材料。
原始字幕
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大家好

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今天是4月16日星期四

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我们继续分析美股

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本期内容如下

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我们先看消息面

6
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台积电第一季度净利大增58%

7
00:00:17,699 --> 00:00:19,379
AI需求强劲

8
00:00:19,379 --> 00:00:21,809
上调资本支出

9
00:00:22,449 --> 00:00:25,510
台积电业绩指引全面超预期

10
00:00:25,510 --> 00:00:27,550
核心指标强劲增长

11
00:00:27,550 --> 00:00:29,609
毛利率维持高位

12
00:00:29,609 --> 00:00:32,570
净利润同比增长58%

13
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受益于AI及高性能计算的旺盛需求

14
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公司第一季度净利润达182亿美元

15
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创下历史新高

16
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显示出强大的盈利能力

17
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营收达359亿美元

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同比增长40.6%

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远超市场预期

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标志着公司连续第八个季度录得两位数增长

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核心业务动能强劲

22
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毛利率66.2%

23
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高位毛利率水平持续提升

24
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印证了其在先进制程领域的强大议价能力

25
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与规模效应

26
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第二季度营收指引超预期

27
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公司预计第二季度营收在390亿至

28
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402亿美元之间

29
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显著高于市场预期的381.1亿美元

30
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为全年营收增长超过30%奠定基础

31
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AI需求引爆资本支出

32
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,159
为满足AI算力激增

33
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上调资本支出至区间

34
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高端AI需求极为强劲

35
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公司判断

36
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从生成式AI向代理式AI演进

37
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带来的算力需求极为强劲

38
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是支撑未来增长的核心动能

39
00:01:50,519 --> 00:01:53,140
资本支出上调至高端

40
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为满足客户对先进制程的渴求

41
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将2026年

42
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资本支出计划上调至520亿至

43
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560亿美元区间的高端水平

44
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即接近560亿美元

45
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未来3年支出显著增加

46
00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,400
公司明确表示

47
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未来3年的资本支出将显著高于过去3年

48
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以加速产能建设

49
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应对持续攀升的订单需求

50
00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,539
先进制程量产进展

51
00:02:24,539 --> 00:02:26,620
2NM进度超前

52
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3NM产能紧张

53
00:02:28,870 --> 00:02:32,389
A14研发顺利

54
00:02:33,050 --> 00:02:35,689
2NM制成量产超前

55
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2NM制成进度超前

56
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已于2026年第一季度

57
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顺利进入大规模量产阶段

58
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并展现出良好的良率

59
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为未来性能突破奠定基础

60
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3NM产能持续吃紧

61
00:02:50,539 --> 00:02:53,360
针对供不应求的3NM产能

62
00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,229
台积电正执行全球扩产计划

63
00:02:56,229 --> 00:03:00,629
预计产能紧张局面将持续到2027年

64
00:03:00,629 --> 00:03:04,229
A14工艺研发顺利

65
00:03:04,229 --> 00:03:09,210
更先进的A十四一.4纳米工艺研发顺利

66
00:03:09,210 --> 00:03:12,490
预计将于2028年开始量产

67
00:03:12,490 --> 00:03:17,129
将提供显著的性能与功耗优势

68
00:03:18,719 --> 00:03:21,120
谷歌与五角大楼密谈

69
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GERMANY模型拟进驻美军机密系统

70
00:03:27,060 --> 00:03:28,099
战略逆转

71
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拥抱国防

72
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从抵制到合作

73
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谷歌AI进军五角大楼

74
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秘密部署GERMANY模型

75
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计划允许军方在机密环境中部署其GEMINI大模型

76
00:03:45,229 --> 00:03:48,139
标志着战略上的重大转折

77
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扫清内部政策障碍

78
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2025年

79
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公司删除了禁止将AI用于武器和监控的条款

80
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为此次合作铺平了道路

81
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夏末时的立场截然相反

82
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填补竞争对手空白

83
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谷歌的积极姿态直接源于竞争对手

84
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ANTHROPIC与五角大楼关系的破裂

85
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后者因坚守安全限制导致谈判失败

86
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为谷歌留下了市场空间

87
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伦理与利益的博弈

88
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在全面授权的同时

89
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划定技术应用红线

90
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授权所有合法用途

91
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谷歌拟授权五角大楼在所有合法用途中

92
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使用其AI技术

93
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实现了使用范围的大幅放宽

94
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设定伦理红线

95
00:04:40,918 --> 00:04:43,119
合同中提出附加条款

96
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明确防止技术被用于美国国内的大规模监控

97
00:04:47,350 --> 00:04:50,730
或在缺乏适当人工监督的情况下

98
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运用于自主武器系统

99
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对标OpenAI策略

100
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谷歌提出的条款与OpenAI

101
00:04:57,629 --> 00:05:01,178
此前同五角大楼达成的协议基本一致

102
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反映出科技巨头在商业利益

103
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与技术伦理间的平衡

104
00:05:05,959 --> 00:05:07,178
策略

105
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竞争与现实挑战

106
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抢占市场机遇

107
00:05:10,990 --> 00:05:14,600
但仍面临算力与文化等多重挑战

108
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抢占国防市场份额

109
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此次合作

110
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不仅使其有机会抢占关键的国防市场份额

111
00:05:22,110 --> 00:05:26,589
也反映了硅谷科技巨头在地缘政治压力下

112
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与军方合作日益紧密的趋势

113
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面临算力瓶颈

114
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谷歌云在联邦市场的份额远低于亚马逊和微软

115
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其可用于机密工作的算力基础设施依然有限

116
00:05:40,709 --> 00:05:44,050
短期内难以满足军方的大规模需求

117
00:05:44,050 --> 00:05:45,910
存在文化隔阂

118
00:05:45,910 --> 00:05:49,160
公司内部形成了独特的防火墙文化

119
00:05:53,660 --> 00:05:56,959
这可能影响项目的执行效率

120
00:05:58,639 --> 00:06:01,959
马斯克启动terror fb计划

121
00:06:01,959 --> 00:06:04,000
欲自建晶圆厂

122
00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,560
重塑算力版图

123
00:06:07,589 --> 00:06:09,649
TERRIFIB宏伟蓝图

124
00:06:09,649 --> 00:06:13,870
马斯克组建团队意在重塑算力供应链

125
00:06:13,870 --> 00:06:15,910
推进内部芯片制造

126
00:06:15,910 --> 00:06:20,550
马斯克正着手推进名为TERRIFB的计划

127
00:06:20,550 --> 00:06:24,769
旨在建立内部芯片制造能力

128
00:06:24,769 --> 00:06:30,269
从根本上重塑特斯拉SPACEX及XAI的供应链

129
00:06:30,269 --> 00:06:33,649
设定惊人算力目标

130
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该计划设定了每年高达一太瓦

131
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计算能力的惊人目标

132
00:06:39,129 --> 00:06:41,658
以支撑其在人形机器人

133
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太空数据中心等领域的庞大算力需求

134
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已开始实质接洽

135
00:06:48,079 --> 00:06:53,250
目前团队已开始与半导体设备供应商就光眼膜

136
00:06:53,250 --> 00:06:57,290
舍刻机等核心工具进行询价和接洽

137
00:06:57,290 --> 00:07:01,529
项目已从构想进入初步行动阶段

138
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,079
行业博弈与质疑

139
00:07:04,079 --> 00:07:06,019
计划引发市场关注

140
00:07:06,019 --> 00:07:09,319
但合作伙伴态度谨慎

141
00:07:10,029 --> 00:07:11,750
设备商股价上涨

142
00:07:11,750 --> 00:07:15,060
该计划在半导体行业内引发连锁反应

143
00:07:15,060 --> 00:07:19,240
东京电子及应用材料等设备商股价因此上涨

144
00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,439
凸显出市场对潜在巨额订单的期待

145
00:07:23,439 --> 00:07:25,759
三星晚具自建厂

146
00:07:25,759 --> 00:07:27,740
三星电子虽被接洽

147
00:07:27,740 --> 00:07:31,560
但更倾向于在德克萨斯州的现有工厂

148
00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:33,300
为特斯拉分配产能

149
00:07:33,300 --> 00:07:35,800
而非支持其自建工厂

150
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,029
英特尔观望

151
00:07:38,310 --> 00:07:40,870
英特尔虽表示参与意愿

152
00:07:40,870 --> 00:07:43,490
但行业普遍持怀疑态度

153
00:07:43,490 --> 00:07:45,839
台积电等巨头则强调

154
00:07:45,839 --> 00:07:48,199
建厂需数年且无捷径

155
00:07:48,199 --> 00:07:51,879
暗示马斯克的激进时间表不现实

156
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,000
万亿美元的挑战

157
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,319
计划面临难以逾越的财务与执行障碍

158
00:07:59,639 --> 00:08:01,519
天文数字资本支出

159
00:08:01,519 --> 00:08:02,899
据分析师估算

160
00:08:02,899 --> 00:08:04,279
该计划的资本支出

161
00:08:04,279 --> 00:08:07,418
可能高达5万亿至13万亿美元

162
00:08:07,418 --> 00:08:08,218
这一数字

163
00:08:08,218 --> 00:08:12,709
远超当前全球半导体行业的年产能价值

164
00:08:12,709 --> 00:08:14,509
供应链极度紧张

165
00:08:14,509 --> 00:08:16,490
在供应链已因

166
00:08:16,490 --> 00:08:19,908
亚马逊等巨头支出而紧绷的背景下

167
00:08:19,908 --> 00:08:22,709
马斯克试图以光速推进项目

168
00:08:22,709 --> 00:08:26,589
但受限于设备交付周期和人才短缺

169
00:08:26,589 --> 00:08:28,569
短期内难成气候

170
00:08:28,569 --> 00:08:29,910
分析师普遍认为

171
00:08:29,910 --> 00:08:32,529
该项目将是一个漫长的过程

172
00:08:32,529 --> 00:08:37,309
短期内难以对现有的晶圆代工巨头构成

173
00:08:37,309 --> 00:08:38,590
实质性威胁

174
00:08:38,590 --> 00:08:44,629
更多是作为一种战略试探或谈判筹码

175
00:08:45,879 --> 00:08:49,179
好我们看一下今天市场的表现啊

176
00:08:49,179 --> 00:08:53,000
我们看一下今天纳指期货是继续延续了涨势啊

177
00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:54,879
啊尽管K线有点变小了哈

178
00:08:54,879 --> 00:08:58,679
但是还可以看起来已经创出了新的高点

179
00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,340
看一下15分钟图表嗯

180
00:09:01,340 --> 00:09:03,419
在这里震荡了一下

181
00:09:03,419 --> 00:09:04,909
好哎

182
00:09:04,909 --> 00:09:06,490
但目前空头强吗

183
00:09:06,490 --> 00:09:07,690
目前空头不强

184
00:09:07,690 --> 00:09:10,370
因为今天毕竟还是阳线

185
00:09:10,970 --> 00:09:14,789
我们看一下罗素也是一样啊

186
00:09:15,110 --> 00:09:17,370
罗素呢今天没有去创新高啊

187
00:09:17,370 --> 00:09:19,309
这里有点微微的停顿

188
00:09:19,309 --> 00:09:23,580
看一下15分钟图是一个横盘

189
00:09:24,539 --> 00:09:29,980
估计明天或者下周早些时候有可能上道指哈

190
00:09:29,980 --> 00:09:31,240
相对来说较慢啊

191
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,080
整体还是看涨

192
00:09:33,629 --> 00:09:34,610
综合来看

193
00:09:34,610 --> 00:09:36,809
标普昨天就创了新高哈

194
00:09:36,809 --> 00:09:39,769
今天继续延续了较为强势的拉涨

195
00:09:39,769 --> 00:09:41,769
我看下15分钟嗯

196
00:09:41,769 --> 00:09:43,840
横盘好

197
00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,350
日线是阳线好

198
00:09:47,350 --> 00:09:50,309
我们看一下市场整体的分布情况哈

199
00:09:50,309 --> 00:09:52,909
今天看这图看不出来哈

200
00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:55,799
这个我们直接就看领涨板块

201
00:09:55,799 --> 00:09:59,990
我们的锂矿概念延续了涨势哈里相关的

202
00:09:59,990 --> 00:10:04,629
然后货运英伟达相关的还可以哈

203
00:10:04,629 --> 00:10:07,370
那我们把这个英伟达相关的看一下吧

204
00:10:07,370 --> 00:10:11,350
嗯我们直接就在这看看下英特尔

205
00:10:11,350 --> 00:10:13,190
英特尔今天阳线还不错哈

206
00:10:13,190 --> 00:10:14,950
又收又又收出来了

207
00:10:14,950 --> 00:10:16,230
漂亮的阳线

208
00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:18,529
看下15分钟嗯

209
00:10:18,529 --> 00:10:20,190
昨天只是一个小停顿哈

210
00:10:20,190 --> 00:10:21,929
今年延续了涨势

211
00:10:21,929 --> 00:10:24,620
我们再看一下日线

212
00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:27,639
还不错

213
00:10:29,028 --> 00:10:32,839
另外呢就是这个CURWAVE这个图

214
00:10:33,038 --> 00:10:34,158
科瑞瑞这个图

215
00:10:34,158 --> 00:10:37,339
目前还在这个最高位的阻力区下方啊

216
00:10:37,339 --> 00:10:39,119
但实际上上涨的概率较高啊

217
00:10:39,119 --> 00:10:41,669
但在上涨过程中会有一些小回调

218
00:10:41,669 --> 00:10:42,789
空头强势吧

219
00:10:42,789 --> 00:10:43,409
不强势

220
00:10:43,409 --> 00:10:44,350
今天收涨啊

221
00:10:44,350 --> 00:10:46,589
今天的收盘价比昨天高一点

222
00:10:46,589 --> 00:10:47,828
那昨天是阳线吗

223
00:10:47,828 --> 00:10:50,308
也是昨天的收盘价比前一天要高一点

224
00:10:50,308 --> 00:10:52,168
所以这是连着的拉涨哈

225
00:10:52,168 --> 00:10:55,379
所以这根K线呢那也是阳线是吧

226
00:10:55,379 --> 00:11:00,099
这里连着来找我们看一下15分钟图嗯

227
00:11:00,099 --> 00:11:03,399
好也要随时提防更深回撤的可能性啊

228
00:11:03,399 --> 00:11:05,799
不过目前空头不强

229
00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,100
目前空头不是太强势

230
00:11:08,100 --> 00:11:11,440
好我们回到我们的列表

231
00:11:12,639 --> 00:11:14,240
额上涨的图片有很多哈

232
00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,159
我们看一下台积电好

233
00:11:17,159 --> 00:11:19,580
台积电今天是给出了回调哈

234
00:11:19,580 --> 00:11:21,570
给出了回调很正常啊

235
00:11:21,570 --> 00:11:23,009
啊财报表现还可以哈

236
00:11:23,009 --> 00:11:25,210
适当的在这里收敛震荡一下就可以

237
00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:27,589
或者是宽幅震荡也都完全有可能

238
00:11:27,589 --> 00:11:31,349
但是呢单看昨天和今天这两根K线阴线

239
00:11:31,349 --> 00:11:34,629
它是不足以预测未来的形态的

240
00:11:35,070 --> 00:11:36,289
看下15分钟图

241
00:11:36,289 --> 00:11:38,750
我们昨天说如果跌破这个区域呢

242
00:11:38,750 --> 00:11:40,350
可以适当应对一些回撤啊

243
00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:42,710
也就是减仓的意思呃

244
00:11:42,710 --> 00:11:46,539
那如果市场后续是横盘震荡就不用处理了

245
00:11:47,139 --> 00:11:48,419
目前空头强吗

246
00:11:48,419 --> 00:11:49,120
不是太强啊

247
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:50,399
空投空投不是太强

248
00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:52,379
你再看一下日线啊

249
00:11:52,379 --> 00:11:53,340
空投不是太强啊

250
00:11:53,340 --> 00:11:55,139
因为空投啊

251
00:11:55,139 --> 00:11:56,799
呃怎么说呢

252
00:11:56,799 --> 00:11:59,279
这个阴线虽然说有一丢丢的力度啊

253
00:11:59,279 --> 00:12:01,639
但是他不是说太强的阴线啊

254
00:12:01,639 --> 00:12:03,360
他这个下影线还是有一些啊

255
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,659
表明你看之前这些阴线是吧

256
00:12:06,659 --> 00:12:08,480
这些大阴线实体大阴线

257
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,139
现在这个中等偏小哈

258
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,039
不过啊这不要紧啊

259
00:12:13,039 --> 00:12:14,600
重要的是我们的大趋势还在啊

260
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,159
嗯嗯好可以减仓

261
00:12:18,159 --> 00:12:19,279
也可以先看一下

262
00:12:19,279 --> 00:12:20,639
不要理睬

263
00:12:21,438 --> 00:12:23,219
那么阿斯迈尔也是类似哈

264
00:12:23,219 --> 00:12:25,519
额财报发出之后也也有啊

265
00:12:25,519 --> 00:12:26,399
昨天还行来着

266
00:12:26,399 --> 00:12:26,879
谈了几来

267
00:12:26,879 --> 00:12:28,340
今天又掉下来了啊

268
00:12:28,340 --> 00:12:31,519
可见这个台积电和阿斯迈尔是比较联动哈

269
00:12:31,519 --> 00:12:33,559
看下15分钟图嗯

270
00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,350
稍微有一些回调啊

271
00:12:35,350 --> 00:12:37,740
稍微有点回调在这里面好

272
00:12:38,580 --> 00:12:39,700
我们再看一下日线

273
00:12:41,259 --> 00:12:43,220
应该问题不是太大

274
00:12:44,049 --> 00:12:46,769
好我们看一下提到的特斯拉

275
00:12:48,009 --> 00:12:52,019
特斯拉这个图表呢啊整体多头还在哈

276
00:12:52,019 --> 00:12:54,419
就是说这几个要是回回来之后啊

277
00:12:54,419 --> 00:12:55,379
DOTA回来之后啊

278
00:12:55,379 --> 00:12:56,399
不能踩顶

279
00:12:56,399 --> 00:12:59,620
看下15分钟是一个横盘停顿啊

280
00:12:59,620 --> 00:13:02,078
是一个洗盘啊

281
00:13:02,078 --> 00:13:03,119
日线图空头也不强

282
00:13:04,278 --> 00:13:04,599
好

283
00:13:04,599 --> 00:13:06,129
我们继续往上看啊

284
00:13:06,129 --> 00:13:07,889
看下英伟达好

285
00:13:07,889 --> 00:13:09,330
英伟达今天是一个停顿

286
00:13:09,330 --> 00:13:10,529
K价微跌一点点

287
00:13:10,529 --> 00:13:12,210
收盘价比昨天跌一点啊

288
00:13:12,210 --> 00:13:12,850
低一点啊

289
00:13:12,850 --> 00:13:14,250
低一点空头强吗

290
00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:15,419
不强好了

291
00:13:15,419 --> 00:13:16,779
不用理睬

292
00:13:17,179 --> 00:13:18,840
我们看一下镁光

293
00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,419
镁光也是一个停顿

294
00:13:20,419 --> 00:13:22,600
K项啊表明在阻力区有所停顿

295
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:23,879
非常的正常

296
00:13:23,879 --> 00:13:26,179
我们看下15分钟图啊

297
00:13:26,179 --> 00:13:28,639
大家也可以适当的提防他

298
00:13:28,639 --> 00:13:30,399
更深回撤的可能性是吧

299
00:13:30,399 --> 00:13:33,659
但是我觉得哈我觉得不是太重要哈

300
00:13:33,659 --> 00:13:36,960
但是我也有觉得哈是之前这洗了一下盘子哈

301
00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:38,870
看这次能不能直接涨上去

302
00:13:38,870 --> 00:13:40,350
但如果他继续洗盘呢

303
00:13:40,350 --> 00:13:42,509
还是要定一些可能的减仓位啊

304
00:13:42,509 --> 00:13:43,649
应对一下

305
00:13:43,649 --> 00:13:45,330
但今天人家说涨啊

306
00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:47,328
今天人家是小阳线啊

307
00:13:47,328 --> 00:13:50,249
所以今天不构成重要决策日

308
00:13:51,568 --> 00:13:53,729
好额

309
00:13:53,729 --> 00:13:55,729
刚才还提到了个谷歌啊

310
00:13:55,729 --> 00:13:57,369
谷歌我觉得长期来说也没事啊

311
00:13:57,369 --> 00:13:59,419
我们直接看谷歌

312
00:13:59,820 --> 00:14:00,940
谷歌在这啊

313
00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:02,870
喂电还行啊

314
00:14:02,870 --> 00:14:05,350
这是一个强劲的上涨波段中的停顿

315
00:14:05,350 --> 00:14:06,210
空头强吧

316
00:14:06,210 --> 00:14:06,669
不强

317
00:14:06,669 --> 00:14:07,970
微跌一点点

318
00:14:07,970 --> 00:14:10,649
看一下15分钟图表还可以吧

319
00:14:10,649 --> 00:14:15,450
嗯只要是回调就是健康的哈

320
00:14:15,730 --> 00:14:18,509
这个想要建真正的顶呢有点难度

321
00:14:18,509 --> 00:14:21,289
那么还有其他的图片也都是上涨哈

322
00:14:22,450 --> 00:14:26,750
我们刚才提提到这个CRWV也是上涨哈

323
00:14:26,750 --> 00:14:29,330
这个亚马逊也是微微有所停顿哈

324
00:14:29,330 --> 00:14:30,740
微涨一点点

325
00:14:30,740 --> 00:14:33,080
但整体而言呢市场表现还不错哈

326
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,700
要允许市场有回调好

327
00:14:35,700 --> 00:14:37,460
大家也可以成为牛股会员哈

328
00:14:37,460 --> 00:14:39,460
观看更多的牛股分析内容

329
00:14:39,460 --> 00:14:41,580
高级会员可以看到更多内容哈

330
00:14:41,580 --> 00:14:42,879
我们待会儿见
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