美股 AMD拉新高，NVDA低波动！ASML长牛不变！NFLX前瞻全面不及预期！本周散户买了啥？

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年4月16号

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周四晚上的8.25分

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今天的四大指数啊是继续上涨啊

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但是涨幅有限

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能源房地产还有科技板块领涨

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医疗保健

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工业和非必需品板块表现相对落后呃

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在中东局势方面呢

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美国总统川普表示说啊

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伊朗准备移交浓缩铀

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并作出此前未曾同意的让步啊

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这个就提振了人们对于

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伊朗达成更广泛协议的希望

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他说伊朗和谈可能会在本周末恢复啊

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但是对于延长停火协议呢就不确定哈

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那相当于如果不确定下个星期有可能会开火啊

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不过呢海湾和欧洲官员认为

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需要六个月的时间才能达成伊朗核协议

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另外呢

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黎巴嫩和以色列双方已经同意为期十天的停火

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那么这个也是为每一谈判营造一个稳定的氛围

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但是伊斯兰革命卫队却在拆台

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他们声称说啊

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已经准备好袭击和击沉美国的军舰啊

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所以今天咱们看到布伦特原油呢

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其实呃在今天的盘中是有一波上冲的啊

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大家看到没有

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今天有一波上攻

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然后攻到了99

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接近100的关口

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但是没有过去

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那么目前期货开盘之后呢是小幅下跌

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但价格没有跌穿90块钱啊

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什么时候我们看到价格真的跌穿了90

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那就是一个实质性的真实的资金

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用脚在投票表示的这个紧张局势的一个缓解

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好额

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这个呢是今天的一些呃在盘中的消息呃

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今天的节目呢会和大家呃

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重点等会讲几只股票啊

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呃包括昨天谈到的阿斯麦的财报啊

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没有给大家更新

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那么今天给大家更新一下

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还有这个NETFLIX今天的财报啊

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给大家做一个更新啊

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因为他今天的位置比较关键

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还有AMD的新高啊

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英伟达还是呢表现的波动非常的低啊

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后面应该有一个什么样的期待

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另外像台积电的财报呢

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今天数据没有调整完毕啊

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它的价格也在相对的高位啊

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所以今天我们暂缓

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明天会去给大家带来台积电的这个最新的财报

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好额

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接下来呢我们首先看一个简单的数据

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然后就开始讲解一些额

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资金流向和个股方面的信息

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今天的数据呢有一个是来自于

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美国4月11号当周的初请失业

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从21.9万降到了20.7万

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低于普遍预期的21.5万

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续请失业

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这边呢是从179.4万

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上升到181.8万啊

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小幅高于预期的181万嗯

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好回头哎

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回过头来

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我们继续来讲大盘和资金流向的问题啊

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昨天的节目呢咱们谈到

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其实呃最近在过去的不算

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今天的

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从周一到周三啊

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市场的这个上涨逻辑啊已经说的很清楚啊

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是由谁来推动的

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谁来加油的啊

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谁来追涨的啊

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相信大家呢今天也看到

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市场确实出现了放缓的迹象

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其中呢散户多半是从周三和呃

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就是周三周二的尾声和周三才开始追涨的

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那么今天呢市场整体的运转速度开始放缓

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那么散户在过去的一个星期

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他到底买了些什么东西呢

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我们来看一看啊

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这个里边有没有你所买的啊

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是不是和你现在的持仓情况一样

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呃这个呢是摩根大通监测的

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4月9号到15号啊

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这一个星期的零售交易活动的一个概览

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呃这个零售交易其实指的就是散户啊

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就是资金具有散户流向资金特征的

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这么他们的一个监测报表给大家看一下

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都买了什么东西

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那么在这个星期里边呢

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散户总体的流入资金呢是有所改善

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因为在之前啊

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散户是一直在卖

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那么从这个星期开始呢开始有所增加啊

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就是买了66亿

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略低于过去12个月的平均水平的67亿

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每个星期散户投资者继续偏爱ETF啊

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是买了47亿个股呢

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买的少一点啊

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只卖了19亿

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那么这个星期呢和前几个星期的情况差不多

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散户投资者继续买入人工智能

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数据中心和电气化相关的股票

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还有就是人工智能数据中心受益者

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前30名的一些个股

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包括七大权重以及增长和人工智能产品

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软件货币化相关的股票

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那么在七大权重的交易活动中

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散户的表现如何

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散户投资者买入微软是6.11亿

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买入特斯拉是5.17亿

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买入meta是1.93亿

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谷歌1.13亿

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苹果2500万

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那么卖出主要是亚马逊

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还有英伟达啊

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一个卖7000万

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一个卖了9400万啊

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这个指的是整体的资金流向啊

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因为有买也有卖嘛

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那么除了七大权重之外

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投资者呢更加青睐科技股

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总共是买了7.04亿

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然后是工业股啊

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其实这个工业股里边很多

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就是电气化相关的股票

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它实际上还是和AI相关的对吧

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比方说什么变压器啊等等啊

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这些相关的一些产品

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还有就是金融股1.4亿

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那么净卖出的主要是能源

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3.77亿

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医疗保健8900万

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非必需消费品是7400万啊

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你看看这个操作路径和你是不是比较的类似啊

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我相信大多数的朋友应该是大差不差好

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这个呢就是对于散户的目前的一个买入的状况

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那么股市呢已经两天是收于新高啊

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后面呢慢下来

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大家要有这个期待啊

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不要期待每天都跟在周一到周三那种爆满啊

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因为那个是有资金大的流向推动的

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CCTA呢已经在本周买的差不多了啊

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再买的情况呢就要到下个星期了好吧

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但是CCTA的买入是有一定条件的呃

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它不能够让标普飙得太快啊

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就是不能够涨得太快或者跌得太快呃

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如果一下跌个1%

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那这个呢会破坏整体的这个买入的这个结构

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然后呢还有一个就是如果涨的也太快了

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那么它也是会停止买入的这个步伐啊

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所以这个每天大概能涨个0.5左右以内吧

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啊这个是他们买入的会持续买入的一个前提啊

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所以尽管横盘上涨下跌都是买

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但是买入的量的大小不一样

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如果没有他们帮着推呢

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那么市场就要靠对冲基金

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靠散户对吧

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靠其他的这个机构去推了

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另外还有一个信息需要注意的是

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明天是呃月期权的结算日呃

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乐器专结算之后呢

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有一些东西会重置啊

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它可能会导致下个星期的一些走势发生变化

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那这个呢需要等到明天月期权结算完之后

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明天的这个盘后的节目再给大家分析

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看看有没有一些新的这个资金流向

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有没有可能导致下个星期出现一些回撤啊

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健康的回撤啊

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我这里指的是好额

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然后我们接下来就直接讲解个股好

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首先给大家说一下阿斯麦啊

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呃阿斯麦的细节方面呢就不多讲呃

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因为整体他的状况一直在来讲都是比较稳定的

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而且这一次还上调了前瞻

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主要是把它的前端估值和它的合理位置

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给大家更新一下呃

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基于他的高倍数的增长环境呢

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目前呢是26年到12月的

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前瞻是745~1585

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中位是116

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327年的前瞻是967~2056

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中卫是1511

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现在的市价是1410啊

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其实大家看到这个价格和他这个回撤

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你就能知道呃

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为什么对吧

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因为价格跑太快了嘛

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是不是太快了

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26年这才过了

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到4月份已经快顶到头了

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但理论上它的价格现在应该是前瞻一年

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可以看到27年年中的前瞻

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也就是在1500块钱附近

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那现在是不是已经到了1500了呀

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前段时间都到过了

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在最近在前两天又打了最高点的1500

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所以很合理啊

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这就是一个什么呢

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就是基本面推动已经推到极限了啊

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他是制造商啊

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大家知道它它的这个光刻机

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本来从出货到安装到调试到最后生产它

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它有一个漫长的过程

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他不是说我们在家里边造纸的吧

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你说你弄一弄几台机器或者家里压面对吧

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你把面团一和往里一扔对吧

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面团想产量提高多少

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提高多少对吧

219
00:09:17,259 --> 00:09:18,220
他这个不行啊

220
00:09:18,220 --> 00:09:20,120
他这个技术人员也有限

221
00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:21,080
产量有限

222
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:22,399
调试啊周期都有限

223
00:09:22,399 --> 00:09:25,559
所以他的很多基本面的反应呢

224
00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,580
呃是走成这样已经相当相当好了

225
00:09:28,580 --> 00:09:29,179
老实讲啊

226
00:09:29,179 --> 00:09:31,259
已经走的很顶天了啊

227
00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:32,220
好额

228
00:09:32,220 --> 00:09:35,460
那么它的价格呢看法就比较简单啊

229
00:09:35,460 --> 00:09:37,909
阿斯麦呢和呃这个ISRG

230
00:09:37,909 --> 00:09:39,529
原来一直在讲这两只股票啊

231
00:09:39,529 --> 00:09:41,850
是我认为在目前的美股市场啊

232
00:09:41,850 --> 00:09:43,740
至少很多年的时间里边

233
00:09:43,740 --> 00:09:45,860
他都是套不了人的股票啊

234
00:09:45,860 --> 00:09:47,419
在我的我的看法里面

235
00:09:47,419 --> 00:09:49,929
就这两只股票啊是套不了人的股票

236
00:09:49,929 --> 00:09:52,710
那么阿斯麦呢中间经历过低谷对吧

237
00:09:52,710 --> 00:09:54,070
有过下跌回撤

238
00:09:54,070 --> 00:09:57,009
但是呢方向呢一直都是往上走

239
00:09:57,009 --> 00:09:59,229
因为它在行业的这个垄断地位

240
00:09:59,229 --> 00:10:01,328
实在是无人撼动啊

241
00:10:01,328 --> 00:10:02,078
没办法

242
00:10:02,078 --> 00:10:04,578
所以呢他的每一次的回撤

243
00:10:04,578 --> 00:10:06,278
你要从长线角度考虑

244
00:10:06,278 --> 00:10:08,759
不考虑中间的什么性价比怎么样啊

245
00:10:08,759 --> 00:10:09,659
每一次的回撤

246
00:10:09,659 --> 00:10:12,568
其实无非就是给你腾出未来的超额获利的空间

247
00:10:12,568 --> 00:10:15,889
无非就是你在时间上可能会受一些损失啊

248
00:10:15,889 --> 00:10:16,528
买的高了

249
00:10:16,528 --> 00:10:18,590
时间就回的慢一点

250
00:10:18,590 --> 00:10:19,450
涨的少一点

251
00:10:19,450 --> 00:10:21,590
买的低呢在时间上开始是等

252
00:10:21,590 --> 00:10:23,149
但是呢等它涨回去的时候呢

253
00:10:23,149 --> 00:10:24,370
获利就多一点呃

254
00:10:24,370 --> 00:10:26,129
这个区别就在这

255
00:10:26,129 --> 00:10:28,789
那么阿斯迈德最近的一个强支撑

256
00:10:28,789 --> 00:10:31,220
1300~1394啊

257
00:10:31,220 --> 00:10:33,019
1300~1394啊

258
00:10:33,019 --> 00:10:34,759
就是马上往下去的这个地方

259
00:10:34,759 --> 00:10:37,039
再往下的中等职称也是值得一看的啊

260
00:10:37,039 --> 00:10:38,559
1217~1281

261
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,158
那么最强的一个位置在200日均附近

262
00:10:42,158 --> 00:10:43,318
1000~1090

263
00:10:43,318 --> 00:10:44,678
但是离市价离得比较远啊

264
00:10:44,678 --> 00:10:46,580
要跌20%几呃

265
00:10:46,580 --> 00:10:47,340
也就意味着呢

266
00:10:47,340 --> 00:10:49,919
在1000块钱上方的任何的这个回撤

267
00:10:49,919 --> 00:10:50,919
都是长线机会

268
00:10:50,919 --> 00:10:52,909
无非就是你看在什么地方买

269
00:10:52,909 --> 00:10:54,629
你能等多久的问题好吧

270
00:10:54,629 --> 00:10:57,309
所以阿斯麦这支股票相对就比较简单

271
00:10:57,309 --> 00:10:59,149
哪怕后面呢能跌破1000块钱

272
00:10:59,149 --> 00:11:00,049
也别着急回来

273
00:11:00,049 --> 00:11:01,710
未来还会回到1500的好吧

274
00:11:01,710 --> 00:11:02,710
就这么个看法啊

275
00:11:02,710 --> 00:11:06,269
这个就没有什么太多的呃这个看点

276
00:11:06,269 --> 00:11:07,409
另外它的波动呢

277
00:11:07,409 --> 00:11:09,830
大部分时候波动率水平都不高啊

278
00:11:09,830 --> 00:11:11,980
你这也不是一只波段股票啊

279
00:11:11,980 --> 00:11:13,480
不是一只都波段股票啊

280
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:14,779
它是一个纯股票

281
00:11:14,779 --> 00:11:17,149
就是你想把它拿到退休存它啊

282
00:11:17,149 --> 00:11:17,789
不断的存

283
00:11:17,789 --> 00:11:19,549
然后买入买入买入买入

284
00:11:19,549 --> 00:11:21,840
然后或者你是愿意波段波段一下

285
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:22,399
降低成本

286
00:11:22,399 --> 00:11:23,460
继续买入存股票

287
00:11:23,759 --> 00:11:25,399
就这么一个一只股票啊

288
00:11:25,399 --> 00:11:27,828
所以呃我们不说太远吧

289
00:11:27,828 --> 00:11:29,229
至少五到10年吧

290
00:11:29,229 --> 00:11:33,470
他这个地位暂时来讲都还是安全的好

291
00:11:33,470 --> 00:11:37,029
然后我们再来看一下第二只股票啊

292
00:11:37,029 --> 00:11:39,750
NETFLIX今天盘后的财报

293
00:11:41,220 --> 00:11:41,700
额

294
00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:44,460
今天盘后呢是一口气最多的时候跌了十个点啊

295
00:11:44,460 --> 00:11:45,059
发生了什么

296
00:11:45,059 --> 00:11:46,820
给大家看一下它的细节

297
00:11:46,820 --> 00:11:49,759
他因为他这个细节是值得一看的

298
00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:54,659
NETFLIX呢是第一财季的财报

299
00:11:54,980 --> 00:11:57,000
每股收益呢是1.23

300
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,879
高于去年同期的0.66

301
00:11:59,879 --> 00:12:01,620
超出预期的0.76

302
00:12:01,620 --> 00:12:04,779
那么营收呢是122.5亿

303
00:12:04,779 --> 00:12:06,500
同比增长16%

304
00:12:06,500 --> 00:12:09,409
超过之前预期的121.7

305
00:12:09,409 --> 00:12:12,090
那么尽管在3月份的时候啊

306
00:12:12,090 --> 00:12:15,049
是提高了美国地区的订阅价格啊

307
00:12:15,049 --> 00:12:18,769
把无广告的标准套餐提高了两美元

308
00:12:18,769 --> 00:12:21,190
达到了每个月20美元

309
00:12:21,190 --> 00:12:24,789
但是呢北美仍旧不及预期

310
00:12:24,789 --> 00:12:29,080
美国和加拿大加起来的营收是52.5亿

311
00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,419
同比增长14%

312
00:12:31,419 --> 00:12:34,500
低于之前预期的52.8亿

313
00:12:34,500 --> 00:12:37,339
但是呢有一笔额外的收入

314
00:12:37,339 --> 00:12:40,798
就是来自于在2月份退出了这个

315
00:12:40,798 --> 00:12:43,538
去收购这个华纳兄弟探索啊

316
00:12:43,538 --> 00:12:46,220
当时呢这个收购退出之后

317
00:12:46,220 --> 00:12:49,200
获得了28亿美元的终止费啊

318
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,529
这个相当于就是白赚了一笔钱好

319
00:12:52,529 --> 00:12:56,490
那么它主要下跌的原因还是来自于

320
00:12:56,490 --> 00:12:58,330
前瞻给的不好啊

321
00:12:58,330 --> 00:13:02,029
以及他的创始人辞职了

322
00:13:02,029 --> 00:13:04,149
他的他的第二季度的前瞻啊

323
00:13:04,149 --> 00:13:06,009
是全面的低于市场预期

324
00:13:06,009 --> 00:13:09,190
这个在NETFLIX身上非常罕见啊

325
00:13:09,190 --> 00:13:11,139
呃在我的记忆中

326
00:13:11,139 --> 00:13:14,940
自从NETFLIX在呃上了正轨之后啊

327
00:13:14,940 --> 00:13:16,320
开始盈利以后

328
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,320
就是从之前最早的不盈利嘛

329
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,809
呃到后来的盈利之后的加速增长

330
00:13:20,809 --> 00:13:23,679
似乎我的记忆中没有出现过

331
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:28,580
所有的就是一个季度的所有前瞻都低于预期的

332
00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:30,629
好像从来没出现过啊

333
00:13:30,629 --> 00:13:32,789
首先是预计每股收益

334
00:13:32,789 --> 00:13:34,809
二季度只有78美分

335
00:13:34,809 --> 00:13:37,750
低于预期的八十四美分

336
00:13:38,029 --> 00:13:40,769
预计营收125.7亿

337
00:13:40,769 --> 00:13:44,100
低于预期的126.4亿

338
00:13:44,539 --> 00:13:47,500
预计营业收入41.1亿

339
00:13:47,500 --> 00:13:50,559
低于预期的43.4亿

340
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,820
预计营业利润率32.6

341
00:13:53,820 --> 00:13:56,659
低于预期的34.4%啊

342
00:13:56,659 --> 00:14:01,389
所有的主要的财务指标全部不及预期啊

343
00:14:01,389 --> 00:14:03,690
当然这个也和他加大资本投入

344
00:14:03,690 --> 00:14:07,409
加大对于呃整个市场的推广

345
00:14:07,409 --> 00:14:10,159
还有节目制作也有一定的关系啊

346
00:14:10,159 --> 00:14:13,279
呃或许现在的这个暂时的这种呃

347
00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:13,960
这种投入呢

348
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,009
在未来会收获得更好的一个一个收入啊

349
00:14:17,009 --> 00:14:18,090
这个是有可能的

350
00:14:18,090 --> 00:14:20,870
因为你看他的全年的业绩指引

351
00:14:20,870 --> 00:14:22,370
还是保持的不错的

352
00:14:22,370 --> 00:14:23,789
尽管二季度非常糟糕

353
00:14:23,789 --> 00:14:28,289
全年业绩指引基本上还是符合之前的预期的

354
00:14:28,289 --> 00:14:32,389
预计营收增长12%到14%

355
00:14:32,389 --> 00:14:36,179
预计自由现金流是125亿

356
00:14:36,179 --> 00:14:39,299
那么之前呢是预测是110亿啊

357
00:14:39,299 --> 00:14:41,230
所以高于之前

358
00:14:41,230 --> 00:14:44,669
他还有这个他自己预估的120.5亿

359
00:14:44,669 --> 00:14:47,419
那么这个括号里边是我补充的啊

360
00:14:47,419 --> 00:14:52,320
呃由于之前在收购阶段呢是暂停了股票回购

361
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,879
呃现在呢又收到了一笔额外的28亿

362
00:14:55,879 --> 00:14:59,600
所以公司的现金储备高于正常水平

363
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,769
就是他这个钱呢暂时他花不完

364
00:15:01,769 --> 00:15:03,490
花不完就会干嘛

365
00:15:03,490 --> 00:15:07,509
就有可能在未来的几周宣布重启

366
00:15:07,509 --> 00:15:09,620
甚至加码回购股票

367
00:15:09,620 --> 00:15:11,340
这是大家需要注意的一个信息啊

368
00:15:11,340 --> 00:15:15,120
因为因为一旦宣布加码回购股票的情况下

369
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,440
其实对于市场是一个潜在利好嘛

370
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:17,820
对吧

371
00:15:17,820 --> 00:15:20,240
呃无非就是说他加码多少的问题

372
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:21,159
加码越多

373
00:15:21,159 --> 00:15:23,620
那么在市场上消灭的流通股越多

374
00:15:23,620 --> 00:15:25,600
每股收益权益提升的就越多啊

375
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:26,519
其实就这个区别啊

376
00:15:26,519 --> 00:15:28,200
但信心上肯定是个利好

377
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,710
所以这是一条未来可能会值得关注的信息

378
00:15:32,070 --> 00:15:37,090
那么全年的营收是507亿到517亿

379
00:15:37,090 --> 00:15:40,250
那么这个和之前的预计的513.7亿

380
00:15:40,250 --> 00:15:41,264
差不多

381
00:15:42,019 --> 00:15:45,279
预计营业利润率是31.5啊

382
00:15:45,279 --> 00:15:48,210
低于预期的32%

383
00:15:48,210 --> 00:15:53,610
还有一个就是我认为这次股价下跌最大的原因

384
00:15:53,610 --> 00:15:55,799
可能还是创始人

385
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:57,120
联合创始人

386
00:16:00,559 --> 00:16:02,759
29年后卸任啊

387
00:16:02,759 --> 00:16:04,919
因为呃传奇人物嘛

388
00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:08,539
他也是带领着NETFLIX从这个租DVD开始对吧

389
00:16:08,539 --> 00:16:10,279
租这个DVD光盘业务开始

390
00:16:10,279 --> 00:16:13,820
到现在的变成全球数一数二的流媒体业务公司

391
00:16:13,820 --> 00:16:15,059
非常的不错对吧

392
00:16:15,059 --> 00:16:15,679
然后呢

393
00:16:15,679 --> 00:16:18,600
他说他要去追求慈善事业和个人兴趣了啊

394
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,409
所以他准备离职了啊

395
00:16:21,409 --> 00:16:25,429
那么他的离职会不会给整个的NETFLIX的管理

396
00:16:25,429 --> 00:16:27,590
未来的路径带来一些变化的

397
00:16:27,590 --> 00:16:29,929
这个也是投资者可能比较担心的啊

398
00:16:29,929 --> 00:16:32,330
所以这也是为什么呃

399
00:16:37,830 --> 00:16:42,509
那么我个人如果从财务指标上去分析它

400
00:16:42,509 --> 00:16:43,590
我认为啊

401
00:16:43,590 --> 00:16:46,899
它其实下跌的还有一部分原因是

402
00:16:46,899 --> 00:16:49,460
价格反弹的足够多了

403
00:16:49,460 --> 00:16:51,519
涨得足够高了

404
00:16:51,519 --> 00:16:54,179
26年的前瞻是64~96

405
00:16:54,179 --> 00:16:54,720
中位

406
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,620
八十二七年是77~116

407
00:16:57,620 --> 00:16:59,889
今天已经涨到了107

408
00:16:59,889 --> 00:17:04,869
已经明显超过了27年的终止了对吧

409
00:17:04,869 --> 00:17:06,450
从前能估值上来讲

410
00:17:06,450 --> 00:17:11,279
如果你今天的财报给的是提升二季度前瞻

411
00:17:11,279 --> 00:17:12,880
提升全年前瞻

412
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,380
那我相信今天就不会是这个结果啊

413
00:17:15,380 --> 00:17:16,660
那它就会往上继续走

414
00:17:16,660 --> 00:17:18,710
因为你的预期给的更高嘛

415
00:17:18,710 --> 00:17:20,269
那这个估值还有提升吗

416
00:17:20,269 --> 00:17:21,470
但是你没有

417
00:17:21,470 --> 00:17:22,869
你反而走了一个反向

418
00:17:22,869 --> 00:17:25,170
那它价格下跌就合理了

419
00:17:25,170 --> 00:17:27,519
再叠加着创始人的呃辞职

420
00:17:27,519 --> 00:17:30,160
所以现在这个价格呢就是一个高估

421
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:31,740
但是没有上调啊

422
00:17:31,740 --> 00:17:32,339
没有高估啊

423
00:17:32,339 --> 00:17:33,740
就是价格走的太高了

424
00:17:33,740 --> 00:17:38,579
然后没有上调前瞻导致呢出现了一个回吐啊

425
00:17:38,579 --> 00:17:41,079
那么这个回吐呢看你怎么看啊

426
00:17:41,079 --> 00:17:42,519
你是把它看成机会呢

427
00:17:42,519 --> 00:17:43,679
还是看成风险

428
00:17:43,679 --> 00:17:48,989
我个人呢会看95~100块钱的这个分水岭

429
00:17:48,989 --> 00:17:51,469
就是现在价格跌到98吗

430
00:17:51,469 --> 00:17:54,209
这是一个技术面的一个比较比较

431
00:17:54,209 --> 00:17:55,808
一个指标性的位置啊

432
00:17:55,808 --> 00:17:58,509
95~100块呃

433
00:17:58,509 --> 00:17:59,309
跌破之后呢

434
00:17:59,309 --> 00:18:02,329
我个人认为它的技术面会继续走弱啊

435
00:18:02,329 --> 00:18:05,109
然后呢但是还没有彻底的走空

436
00:18:05,109 --> 00:18:06,869
想要彻底的走空

437
00:18:06,869 --> 00:18:08,960
要跌到87以下

438
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:10,359
那跌到87以下

439
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,279
就意味着它又会回到77的下方去

440
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:15,490
就是上一次出现的这个买点

441
00:18:15,490 --> 00:18:16,410
大家还记得吗

442
00:18:16,410 --> 00:18:19,369
我们之前在这个地方标注的77以下的止跌

443
00:18:19,369 --> 00:18:20,240
长线的买点

444
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,480
有很多朋友在这一圈应该是买了对吧

445
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,079
买从75买到了80块

446
00:18:24,079 --> 00:18:25,179
应该都是买了不少

447
00:18:25,179 --> 00:18:27,818
那么现在能看的就是不跌破87

448
00:18:27,818 --> 00:18:29,499
上方这个位置啊

449
00:18:29,499 --> 00:18:31,098
特别是95~100

450
00:18:31,098 --> 00:18:33,789
是它潜在的横盘的一个区域

451
00:18:33,789 --> 00:18:35,470
但是呢你不能看的太多了

452
00:18:35,470 --> 00:18:36,990
上方也就只能看一个波段

453
00:18:36,990 --> 00:18:38,269
到108~112

454
00:18:38,269 --> 00:18:39,888
因为再往上超了

455
00:18:39,888 --> 00:18:42,929
除非要等到下个季度的业绩往上调还差不多

456
00:18:42,929 --> 00:18:45,368
否则呢它也只有一个波段了啊

457
00:18:45,368 --> 00:18:47,519
就是这个波段震荡区间的波段

458
00:18:47,519 --> 00:18:50,099
反而呢要防止它后面

459
00:18:50,099 --> 00:18:52,700
假如啊我们说现在大盘不是新高了吗

460
00:18:52,700 --> 00:18:54,440
那么大盘新高之后就不能跌吗

461
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:55,700
昨天我也解释过这个逻辑

462
00:18:55,700 --> 00:18:57,579
完全可以原地掉头

463
00:18:57,579 --> 00:18:58,740
直接再砸回去对吧

464
00:18:58,740 --> 00:19:00,670
只要伊朗那边一开战

465
00:19:00,670 --> 00:19:03,390
那这个今这个反正已经打完新高了

466
00:19:03,390 --> 00:19:04,369
任务已经完成了

467
00:19:04,369 --> 00:19:06,029
这一波大家反弹回血的

468
00:19:06,029 --> 00:19:07,609
该回血了对吧

469
00:19:07,609 --> 00:19:09,930
已经走完了这个预期逻辑了嘛

470
00:19:09,930 --> 00:19:11,250
那回头一开战

471
00:19:11,250 --> 00:19:13,029
那不就掉下来也没问题啊

472
00:19:13,029 --> 00:19:16,049
所以大盘如果还稳定的情况下

473
00:19:16,049 --> 00:19:17,569
那或许在87以上

474
00:19:17,569 --> 00:19:19,099
它能够横盘横住

475
00:19:19,099 --> 00:19:19,660
对不对

476
00:19:19,660 --> 00:19:21,380
因为87以上的价格也不算贵嘛

477
00:19:21,380 --> 00:19:22,099
中位80嘛

478
00:19:22,099 --> 00:19:24,119
今年绝对不算贵了啊

479
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,460
那么如果市场出现了大的风险

480
00:19:26,460 --> 00:19:27,679
再有一个回撤

481
00:19:27,679 --> 00:19:29,199
那就不好说对吧

482
00:19:29,199 --> 00:19:32,159
那那种呃资金流向短线的那种砸盘出现

483
00:19:32,159 --> 00:19:34,358
那就有可能再会跌到77以下啊

484
00:19:34,358 --> 00:19:36,439
所以这个技术面的位置分水岭

485
00:19:36,439 --> 00:19:37,638
大家自己盯好好吧

486
00:19:37,638 --> 00:19:39,279
你自己看一看他的情况

487
00:19:39,279 --> 00:19:41,599
破位的时候你就知道那就是结束了

488
00:19:41,599 --> 00:19:43,519
那就知道无法挽回了嘛

489
00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:44,039
那没破位

490
00:19:44,039 --> 00:19:44,799
在这里来回震荡

491
00:19:44,799 --> 00:19:46,440
来回横着反而是好事啊

492
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,140
对你来讲好

493
00:19:48,140 --> 00:19:49,779
这个是NETFLIX

494
00:19:49,779 --> 00:19:53,140
然后再讲一下AMD

495
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,880
AMD呢今天表现相当的炸裂是吧

496
00:19:57,880 --> 00:19:59,299
今天呢昨天是特斯拉

497
00:19:59,299 --> 00:20:00,680
今天是AMD是吧

498
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,960
大家都是以七为尊是吗

499
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,720
那个不是以九嘛对吧

500
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,039
这怎么以七呢

501
00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:07,240
昨天特斯拉涨了七个点

502
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,759
今天AMD又涨了七个点啊

503
00:20:08,759 --> 00:20:10,549
好事非常的好啊

504
00:20:10,549 --> 00:20:16,109
呃那么他今天也是在CPU和GPU这个需求共振

505
00:20:16,109 --> 00:20:16,930
利好的呃

506
00:20:16,930 --> 00:20:18,410
这个消息下啊

507
00:20:18,410 --> 00:20:20,890
是已经突破新高对吧

508
00:20:20,890 --> 00:20:22,659
打了新高的高点了

509
00:20:22,659 --> 00:20:24,499
他之前实际上已经启动了啊

510
00:20:24,499 --> 00:20:26,778
我们之前讲专门还讲了一次AMD

511
00:20:26,778 --> 00:20:27,838
它已经启动了

512
00:20:27,838 --> 00:20:29,019
过了241

513
00:20:29,019 --> 00:20:31,720
是一个看前高新高的过程

514
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,759
但是它这个速度啊要比想象中还要快啊

515
00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:37,619
所以这个就是有时候突破后的力量

516
00:20:37,619 --> 00:20:39,880
再加上呢大家说那他也突破了

517
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:40,799
英伟达也是英伟达

518
00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:41,939
它不动呢啊

519
00:20:41,939 --> 00:20:43,959
他的盘子稍微小一些嘛对吧

520
00:20:43,959 --> 00:20:46,809
市值毕竟才4000多亿呃

521
00:20:46,809 --> 00:20:47,990
和英伟达比起来呢

522
00:20:47,990 --> 00:20:49,269
需要推动的资金量

523
00:20:49,269 --> 00:20:51,660
拉动的资金量也会小一点额

524
00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:52,720
这是其中一个原因啦

525
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,660
当然呢AMD呢增速也确实是非常不错啊

526
00:20:55,660 --> 00:20:58,180
我们之前给大家做过一次调整

527
00:20:58,180 --> 00:21:02,220
如果基于还是基于高增长增速的30~40倍

528
00:21:02,220 --> 00:21:06,569
那么它应该是在呃26年的上限在263

529
00:21:06,569 --> 00:21:09,029
27年的上限在397啊

530
00:21:09,029 --> 00:21:11,230
如果你基于只是20~30倍

531
00:21:11,230 --> 00:21:13,329
那上限在290 827年

532
00:21:13,329 --> 00:21:14,779
今年是197啊

533
00:21:14,779 --> 00:21:15,579
所以很明显

534
00:21:15,579 --> 00:21:19,140
现在的价格还是维持在一个高增长啊

535
00:21:19,140 --> 00:21:21,099
市场呢暂时选择还是相信啊

536
00:21:21,099 --> 00:21:22,759
往上推呃

537
00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:24,179
那么对于AMD来讲呢

538
00:21:24,179 --> 00:21:27,499
我个人持有这只股票还持有一个底仓啊

539
00:21:27,499 --> 00:21:29,599
因为之前也陆陆续的减过仓

540
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:30,960
目前呢没有加仓计划

541
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:31,839
而且我原来讲过

542
00:21:31,839 --> 00:21:36,269
由于我持仓在整个的这个英伟达

543
00:21:36,269 --> 00:21:37,349
也有比较大的仓位

544
00:21:37,349 --> 00:21:38,750
AMD呢也有仓位

545
00:21:38,750 --> 00:21:42,199
所以呢这种同质化的这个持仓啊

546
00:21:42,199 --> 00:21:43,259
呃太集中了

547
00:21:43,259 --> 00:21:47,679
所以呢我决定呢还是要把AMD逐渐的拿掉啊

548
00:21:47,679 --> 00:21:49,179
就是获利之后全部拿掉

549
00:21:49,179 --> 00:21:52,439
当时的想法呢就是想在新高之后对吧

550
00:21:52,439 --> 00:21:53,318
现在新高

551
00:21:53,318 --> 00:21:55,219
但今天呢明显的一个放量

552
00:21:55,219 --> 00:21:58,269
基本上没有上影线非常强的一个走势

553
00:21:58,269 --> 00:22:00,789
那这种情况呢我决定还是拿一拿啊

554
00:22:00,789 --> 00:22:01,789
还是要拿一拿

555
00:22:01,789 --> 00:22:04,069
拿到预期要把它清掉的位置

556
00:22:04,069 --> 00:22:06,359
我有一个大概的想法啊

557
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,160
我只能告诉大家有个大概的想法啊

558
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,319
根据目前的前瞻额

559
00:22:10,319 --> 00:22:14,559
我预计呢我希望他比较好的

560
00:22:14,559 --> 00:22:16,980
我能够把仓位获利全部拿掉的

561
00:22:16,980 --> 00:22:19,109
位置是在300以上

562
00:22:19,430 --> 00:22:25,950
那么如果理想的位置是在接近350块啊

563
00:22:25,950 --> 00:22:29,539
理想的位置也就是27年的高倍的中位附近

564
00:22:29,539 --> 00:22:30,579
这是比较理想的啊

565
00:22:30,579 --> 00:22:31,500
能不能跑那么高

566
00:22:31,500 --> 00:22:32,279
我不清楚

567
00:22:32,279 --> 00:22:34,539
但是我这是我理想的位置好吧

568
00:22:34,539 --> 00:22:37,200
但是呢在300以上我也能接受啊

569
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,140
就可以把它拿掉

570
00:22:38,140 --> 00:22:39,099
没问题好吧

571
00:22:39,099 --> 00:22:40,200
但逻辑我也讲过了

572
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,119
因为你要是只持有AMD的话

573
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,099
没有持有英伟达

574
00:22:43,099 --> 00:22:45,019
你仓位也有限的情况下

575
00:22:45,019 --> 00:22:46,220
你可以继续看好啊

576
00:22:46,220 --> 00:22:48,579
看AMD多拿几年没问题啊

577
00:22:48,579 --> 00:22:51,160
这个因为每个人的持仓权重不一样嘛

578
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:51,480
对吧

579
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,079
我已经谈过我的逻辑啊

580
00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:55,299
我逻辑是因为我持仓太集中了好吧

581
00:22:55,299 --> 00:22:57,519
所以呢并不是看空这家公司啊

582
00:22:57,519 --> 00:22:59,579
我只是想要去降低一下风险

583
00:22:59,579 --> 00:23:02,470
因为随着二季度的到来

584
00:23:02,470 --> 00:23:03,349
二季度后

585
00:23:03,349 --> 00:23:04,130
然后呢

586
00:23:04,130 --> 00:23:07,769
还有整个年底的AI的大资本支出的货币化

587
00:23:07,769 --> 00:23:08,859
的一个验证阶段

588
00:23:08,859 --> 00:23:10,259
这里面有一些东西呢

589
00:23:10,259 --> 00:23:12,859
有一些风险呢就要提前去做了好吧

590
00:23:12,859 --> 00:23:13,900
提前这对我来讲

591
00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:16,279
个人的仓位控制来讲是这样的一个逻辑

592
00:23:16,279 --> 00:23:17,140
不一定对啊

593
00:23:17,140 --> 00:23:18,319
因为我剪完之后

594
00:23:18,319 --> 00:23:20,160
他可能还会涨到400以上对吧

595
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:21,680
那跟我就没什么关系嘛对吧

596
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,888
我只对我的这个仓位的这个风险呢

597
00:23:24,888 --> 00:23:26,449
进行一个全新的一个衡量啊

598
00:23:26,449 --> 00:23:27,288
仅此而已哈

599
00:23:27,288 --> 00:23:29,789
跟大家讲清楚好呃

600
00:23:29,789 --> 00:23:31,650
因为英伟达是我的第一大持仓啊

601
00:23:31,650 --> 00:23:36,190
所以我更看重现在英伟达能够往上走成

602
00:23:36,190 --> 00:23:37,420
什么样子啊

603
00:23:37,420 --> 00:23:41,319
这是我的一个看法好这是AMD呃

604
00:23:41,319 --> 00:23:44,319
然后英伟达这边也跟大家讲一下

605
00:23:45,559 --> 00:23:48,160
好因为答案呢我是一个10%的持仓啊

606
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,000
是属于这个并列第一大持仓额

607
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,470
那么它呢是和我现在给大家看一下

608
00:23:53,470 --> 00:23:55,930
我的我的持仓是按照仓位顺序排的啊

609
00:23:55,930 --> 00:23:58,490
英伟达和微软都是并并列第一大持仓

610
00:23:58,490 --> 00:24:02,500
然后呢英伟达这边的情况为什么走的慢啊

611
00:24:02,500 --> 00:24:06,700
因为呃又重新研究了一下他的这个波动情况啊

612
00:24:06,700 --> 00:24:07,819
就是它的波动率情况

613
00:24:07,819 --> 00:24:11,670
发现呢呃从历史数据上来看啊

614
00:24:11,670 --> 00:24:14,849
英伟达尽管已经完成了190的突破

615
00:24:14,849 --> 00:24:16,380
但速度不快

616
00:24:16,380 --> 00:24:18,579
原因最主要的原因是

617
00:24:18,579 --> 00:24:21,380
它的隐含波动率还比较的低啊

618
00:24:21,380 --> 00:24:26,420
就是市场的压铸上呢没有压塌大爆发大波动

619
00:24:26,420 --> 00:24:27,779
它有多低呢

620
00:24:27,779 --> 00:24:29,660
呃给大家举个例子打个比方啊

621
00:24:29,660 --> 00:24:31,160
哎不是打个比方就是数据啊

622
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,130
英伟达三个月的隐含波动率

623
00:24:34,130 --> 00:24:38,089
和这个SMH3个月的隐含波动率的比率

624
00:24:38,089 --> 00:24:39,829
接近10年来的低点

625
00:24:39,829 --> 00:24:44,230
也就是说呢它其实和SMH是呃

626
00:24:44,230 --> 00:24:45,029
其中半导体一致

627
00:24:45,029 --> 00:24:45,769
ETF吗

628
00:24:45,769 --> 00:24:51,609
那个ETF它们相对的比率来讲诶

629
00:24:51,609 --> 00:24:53,609
呃这个SMH的波动

630
00:24:53,609 --> 00:24:57,049
甚至都有可能要要要超过这个英伟达啊

631
00:24:57,049 --> 00:24:59,369
但但这样说呢也不也不完全正确啊

632
00:24:59,369 --> 00:25:02,359
应该确切的讲就是由于他这个比率比较低

633
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,019
所以呢很明显的能看到有一个压制作用

634
00:25:06,019 --> 00:25:10,579
那么这种情况呢由于再加上市值又比较大啊

635
00:25:10,579 --> 00:25:12,799
所以他需要拉动的资金比较大

636
00:25:12,799 --> 00:25:15,170
所以现在合理的期待啊

637
00:25:15,170 --> 00:25:17,230
就是英伟达已经突破之后

638
00:25:17,230 --> 00:25:20,990
合理的期待是后面走一些回撤

639
00:25:20,990 --> 00:25:23,829
然后高点慢慢的往上涨啊

640
00:25:23,829 --> 00:25:27,049
就是期待一个慢牛的爬升

641
00:25:27,049 --> 00:25:31,009
然后再呢去期待一些超级大利好消息的

642
00:25:31,009 --> 00:25:32,410
偶尔的跳涨

643
00:25:32,410 --> 00:25:36,118
这个是比较符合预期的啊

644
00:25:36,118 --> 00:25:38,878
就是大家可能想AMD涨这么多

645
00:25:38,878 --> 00:25:40,979
那为什么英伟达不动对吧

646
00:25:40,979 --> 00:25:42,278
他不说涨七个点吧

647
00:25:42,278 --> 00:25:43,480
它涨四个点也行啊

648
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:44,519
这个就是原因啊

649
00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:47,500
因为市场的这个压铸盘子实在太大了

650
00:25:47,500 --> 00:25:50,029
它是4.82万亿的市值

651
00:25:50,029 --> 00:25:53,029
AMD是4536亿的市值

652
00:25:53,029 --> 00:25:54,789
差了差不多十倍啊

653
00:25:54,789 --> 00:25:59,039
所以呢希望大家啊把这个预期稍微放低啊

654
00:25:59,039 --> 00:26:01,279
突破以后的上行趋势是不会动的啊

655
00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:02,200
这个不会动的

656
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,700
无非就是慢是慢一点好吧

657
00:26:04,700 --> 00:26:07,000
这个大家呢把预期放低一点呢

658
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:07,859
会比较舒服

659
00:26:07,859 --> 00:26:10,539
走一个慢牛嘛好额

660
00:26:10,539 --> 00:26:13,019
然后呢其他的就不多说了

661
00:26:13,019 --> 00:26:17,439
台积电呢我明天会去更新它的这个情况

662
00:26:17,439 --> 00:26:21,199
因为有些数据没有调整完毕好

663
00:26:21,199 --> 00:26:24,439
然后再就是最后大盘我多说一句

664
00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:27,000
目前的纳指100呢

665
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,680
是已经连续的12个交易日上涨

666
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,500
这是自2017年7月以来啊

667
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:34,940
从来没有过的啊

668
00:26:34,940 --> 00:26:39,380
历史上呢还有四次超过12连涨的情况啊

669
00:26:39,380 --> 00:26:42,220
但是这个已经追溯到2017年了对吧

670
00:26:42,220 --> 00:26:44,940
我们说已经将近这个10年时间

671
00:26:44,940 --> 00:26:46,460
没有出现这种情况了

672
00:26:46,460 --> 00:26:48,079
那么昨天的节目呢

673
00:26:48,079 --> 00:26:51,140
我谈到了关于大盘的前瞻的走势

674
00:26:51,140 --> 00:26:54,980
就是新高已经完成了

675
00:26:54,980 --> 00:26:57,859
整体呢市场会降速

676
00:26:57,859 --> 00:27:01,220
但是呢这个速度慢反而是好事儿啊

677
00:27:01,220 --> 00:27:02,700
速度慢不是坏事

678
00:27:02,700 --> 00:27:03,980
因为你太快了以后

679
00:27:03,980 --> 00:27:05,059
斜率太高了以后

680
00:27:05,059 --> 00:27:06,559
他是撑不住的

681
00:27:06,559 --> 00:27:07,920
斜率拉得越高

682
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,799
崩得越快啊

683
00:27:09,799 --> 00:27:11,720
他越经受不起任何的风险

684
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,240
所以慢一点

685
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,400
哪怕回撤回撤对吧

686
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:16,920
大家再交换交换啊

687
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,279
有人走有人进

688
00:27:18,279 --> 00:27:21,069
然后呢稳固筹码慢慢的走

689
00:27:21,069 --> 00:27:24,190
这个实际上呢会更好一些啊

690
00:27:24,190 --> 00:27:25,339
更稳定一些

691
00:27:25,339 --> 00:27:27,380
所以讲这个的目的是

692
00:27:27,380 --> 00:27:30,960
希望大家把后面的预期放低一些啊

693
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,839
这样的话你看后面的行情呢

694
00:27:32,839 --> 00:27:34,359
可能就不会那么紧张啊

695
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,579
也会比较的快乐啊

696
00:27:36,900 --> 00:27:39,180
好这个呢就是咱们今天带给大家的

697
00:27:39,180 --> 00:27:42,940
关于这个市场内容的一些呃追踪和解读

698
00:27:42,940 --> 00:27:45,140
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助呢

699
00:27:45,140 --> 00:27:47,240
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙啊

700
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,740
点赞谢谢大家啊

701
00:27:48,740 --> 00:27:50,799
点赞评论转发推荐给朋友

702
00:27:50,799 --> 00:27:51,660
感谢大家

703
00:27:51,660 --> 00:27:52,940
那我们今天到这

704
00:27:52,940 --> 00:27:54,740
然后明天的周五啊

705
00:27:54,740 --> 00:27:55,779
咱们会讲台积电

706
00:27:55,779 --> 00:27:58,859
然后呢还会呃更新一下其他的信息

707
00:27:58,859 --> 00:28:01,619
包括看看能不能拿到数据

708
00:28:01,619 --> 00:28:04,839
对于下个星期的盘面有一些前瞻性的看法的啊

709
00:28:04,839 --> 00:28:07,970
当然要取决于明天期权之后的这个结

710
00:28:07,970 --> 00:28:09,650
算之后的这个资金流向啊

711
00:28:09,650 --> 00:28:11,660
现在提前判断不了好

712
00:28:11,660 --> 00:28:12,500
那我们今天到这儿啊

713
00:28:12,500 --> 00:28:14,500
咱们就明天的同一时间

714
00:28:14,500 --> 00:28:16,480
咱们不见不散

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