瑞银-西部数据公司（WDC）：业绩超预期并上调指引，但市场预期过于乐观-260501

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想象一下一家卖硬件的制造公司

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它的毛利率能干到多少

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70帕甚至是75帕

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根据瑞云最新给出的预测

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就在未来差不多八个季度里

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西部数据极有可能会摸到

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这个让人眼红的利润区间

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但有意思的来了

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这也引出了

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咱们今天要好好拆解的一个核心反差

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刚刚过去的这个财季呀

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西部数据

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可以说是交出了一份无可挑剔的成绩单

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各项指标直接拉满

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远远超出了市场预期

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但是就在这种全线飘红

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大家觉得稳操胜券的时候

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瑞民的分析时

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却极其冷静地给出了一个中性评级

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你说奇怪不奇怪

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公司赚得盆满钵满

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却换不来一个买入评级

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今天咱们这期解析

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就是要带大家一起把这个谜团给彻底解开

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咱们先快速过一下今天的核心脉络

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首先看他们是怎么粉碎盈利预期的

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接着聊聊AI如何真正在背后猛推利润

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然后重点拆解市场的估值隐忧

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以及围绕它到底是周期股

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还是复利股的核心争论

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最后我们会揭晓机构对稀补数据的最终底牌好

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那咱们就直接切入正题

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先来看看第一部分

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这一波粉碎级的盈利表现

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咱们让数字自己说话

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在2026财年第三季度

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西部数据的实际营收

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一举冲到了33.4亿美元

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但这还不算最炸裂的

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真正让人眼前一亮的是

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他非公认会计准则下的每股收益

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达到了2.72美元

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这个水平不仅跑赢了瑞银预期的11帕

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更是把华尔街普遍的预估高出了将近14帕

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也就是说

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这不仅是赢手打了个胜仗

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更是一场实打实的利润狂欢

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他的毛利率飙到了50.5percent

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这可是比他们自己之前给出的指引上显

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还要生生高出250个基点

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为什么这很重要

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因为这意味着

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现在不仅供不应求

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而且之前那些高价的积压订单

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正在源源不断的变成真金白银

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流向底线利润

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再加上他们这一季出货了

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足足22200000000B的惊人数据量

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营业利润率大幅超预期

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那完全就是水到渠成的事了

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那么问题来了

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到底是什么在背后给他们撑腰呢

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咱们进入第二部分

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聊聊AI是怎么驱动这场利润大爆炸的

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其实把这些冷冰冰的财务数字

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放到现在的科技大趋势里

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你就会豁然开朗

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现在满大街都在聊的代理AI和物理

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AI就是存储需求的超级引擎

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现在的数据啊没人舍得用完就删

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大家都大量存起来

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留着以后训练模型或者生成合成数据用

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为了抢占未来的存储产能

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大客户们甚至直接把长期采购协议签到了

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2029年了

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而且技术上西部数据也没闲着

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他们搞出了采用ultra s m r技术的

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40tb e p m2硬盘

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这什么概念

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相当于在完全一样的物理空间里

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凭空多挤出了20percent的容量加成

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这种技术加需求的双轮驱动

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直接让西部数据拿到了极强的长期定价权

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正因为底气这么足

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瑞银在报告里抛出了一个非常大胆的预测

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原话是我们认为在约八个季度内

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毛利率极有可能达到约70~75拍

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大家想想

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一个搞硬件制造的公司

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利润率干到70趴以上

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这绝对是反常识的对吧

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这种极其霸道的定价权

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很大程度上是因为在高端数据中心

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硬盘这个池子里

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西部数据和希捷基本上已经形成了

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那种牢不可破的准双寡头垄断格局

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不过呢先别高兴的太早

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咱们来到第三部分

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说说这背后的隐忧

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市场的估值风险

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其实这里有一个特别值得大家琢磨的问题

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既然利润都肥到

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毛利率直逼75趴了

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为什么瑞银最后只给了一个干巴巴的中性评级

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难道华尔街的分析师看不到这些亮眼的数据吗

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这背后到底藏着什么不敢让人轻易买单的雷

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咱们换个视角

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站在那些买单的大客户立场上

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想一想

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那些需要海量算力的数据

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终身巨头个个都是世界上最精明的一群人

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他们手里攥着大把的预算

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怎么可能眼睁睁看着硬盘厂商在自己身上

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一直安稳地赚的75趴的暴利呢

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分析师直接点破了这个幻觉

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如果价格实在太高

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这些财大气粗的巨头们完全有能力

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也有绝对的动机

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拿着大把钞票去疯狂扶持

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像东池这样的替代厂商

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从而强行把目前这个双挂头的饭碗给砸了

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顺着这个思路往下走

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咱们进入第四部分

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这也是这份报告里最核心最深刻的一个争论点

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整个市场是不是对西部数据这支股票的本质

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产生了误解

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这个数据对比绝对能让你惊掉下巴

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根据瑞银自家的hot模型

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测算出来的市场隐藏长期增长率

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你看当前市场给西部数据的定价里

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竟然包含了高达11%的长期复合增长率

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再看看现在AI界绝对的霸主英伟达

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市场给的长期增长率才只有6percent

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而同样是搞存储硬件的美光

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甚至是-13percent

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你不觉得西部数据现在的估值情绪

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已经被狂热推到了一个有些离谱的高度了吗

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这恰恰暴露出分析师眼中极其危险的信号

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现在的投资者们可能完全把剧本给拿错了

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大家似乎已经把一家高度依赖供需波动的

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周期性硬件公司

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当成了一台可以永远享受AI红利

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永远不会有下行周期的复利印钞机

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在存储这个特别吃周期的行业里

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这种错觉往往是非常致命的

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咱们来看看历史规律是怎么写的

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现在西部数据和他的老对手西介

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不仅利润双双站上了历史之巅

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更可怕的是

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他们在市场上的估值倍数也刚好在顶峰

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利润和估值双双见顶

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这在存储行业可是一个最经典的红色警报

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历史数据无情地告诉我们

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爬得越高

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摔得越狠

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越是这种极度的上行周期

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一旦盛极而衰

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到了拐点

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紧接着的必然是估值倍数的严重暴跌

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好那在看透了这一层一层的周期风险之后

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咱们来到最后一部分

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看看瑞银对西部数据的最终裁决

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结果到底是什么

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虽然刚才我们聊了那么多对长期周期的担忧

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但是眼下的供需必经极其紧张

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所以瑞妍实际上大笔一挥

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把西部数据

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2027自然年的每股收益预期

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疯狂上调了55.6帕

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必须承认

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人家此时此刻的赚钱能力确实是无可挑剔的

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但这个时候非常魔幻的数学拉扯出现了

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一方面

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分析师把2027和2028年的平均

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每股盈利大幅拔高到了35.85美元

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但另一方面呢

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为了防范随时可能到来的周期见顶风险

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他们硬生生地把给这家公司的目标估值倍数

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从原本的14倍一刀砍到了十倍

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也就是说公司确实赚得更多了

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但市场因为害怕随时变天

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反而不愿意给他那么高的溢价了

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这种超预期的绝对盈利

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就这样被严厉压缩的估值给完全抵消了

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所以综合了这两股对抗的力量

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底盘揭晓了基于更高规模的每股收益

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乘以被砍到十倍的估值倍数

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瑞云把目标价从350美元稍微往上提了

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提给到了375美元

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但是由于对结构性和周期性反转的担忧

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挥之不去

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分析师极其克制

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坚决不为当前的狂热买单

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把评级死死的按在了中兴上

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最后我想用报告里这句极其犀利的评语

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来做个总结

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分析师写道

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市场在这里戴的玫瑰色眼镜实在是太厚了

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这句话真的说到了骨子里

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在这个节骨眼上极度的过乐情绪

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已经让态度投资者选择性地遗忘了存储行业

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那种根深蒂固

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甚至有些残酷的周期性铁律

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这一期解析到这里

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我想留给大家一个真正值得深思的问题

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在这场由人工智能引爆的算力和存储狂欢里

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永远打破了周期性的宿命

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还是说整个市场现在只是在装睡

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对那个必然到来的顶点视而不见呢

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大家可以把你的想法留在心里慢慢琢磨

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感谢大家收看这期的深度解析

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希望这些数字背后的逻辑能让你有所收获

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咱们下期再见

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