BV1jbf1BTEAt · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:00,940 女士们、先生们 2 00:00:00,940 --> 00:00:03,339 我在大金融危机中起步 3 00:00:03,339 --> 00:00:05,400 开启了我的投资之旅 4 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:09,759 从二十八岁开始，让我告诉你们股市某些时期 5 00:00:09,759 --> 00:00:11,419 将带来非凡机遇 6 00:00:11,419 --> 00:00:12,878 但也会考验你 7 00:00:12,878 --> 00:00:15,230 如果你想要抓住这个机会 8 00:00:15,230 --> 00:00:17,190 你必须要有财务勇气 9 00:00:17,190 --> 00:00:19,390 因为它不会让你轻松 10 00:00:19,390 --> 00:00:22,089 我现在看到市场正在经历这样的时期 11 00:00:22,089 --> 00:00:23,339 我正在查看公开账户 12 00:00:23,339 --> 00:00:27,579 公开账户在过去的几个月里似乎前进一步后退两步 13 00:00:27,579 --> 00:00:28,640 此刻的情况是 14 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,850 自从它创下历史新高以来 15 00:00:30,850 --> 00:00:32,549 大约在某个时候 16 00:00:32,549 --> 00:00:34,590 万圣节前后前进一步 17 00:00:34,590 --> 00:00:35,450 后退两步 18 00:00:35,450 --> 00:00:37,700 这似乎就是现状 19 00:00:37,700 --> 00:00:39,119 今天我们观察市场 20 00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:41,340 道指大幅下跌近千点 21 00:00:41,340 --> 00:00:42,579 纳斯达克大幅下滑 22 00:00:42,579 --> 00:00:44,619 IBM今日惨遭抛售 23 00:00:44,619 --> 00:00:47,409 我最近看到它下跌了13% 24 00:00:47,409 --> 00:00:48,210 Anthropics 25 00:00:48,210 --> 00:00:49,710 编程语言威胁 26 00:00:49,710 --> 00:00:51,109 一切都被 27 00:00:51,109 --> 00:00:51,429 人工智能 28 00:00:51,429 --> 00:00:51,929 目前 29 00:00:51,929 --> 00:00:53,420 大家都在下结论 30 00:00:53,420 --> 00:00:55,259 我今天在X上发布了这个 31 00:00:55,259 --> 00:00:57,219 我说我只是用直觉编码亚马逊 32 00:00:57,219 --> 00:00:57,880 它们已无关紧要 33 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:58,200 现在 34 00:00:58,200 --> 00:00:59,200 使用我的直觉代码 35 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,698 宝贝，我们将通过我的直觉代码行动 36 00:01:01,698 --> 00:01:02,679 我是杰里米·贝索斯 37 00:01:02,679 --> 00:01:02,859 现在 38 00:01:02,859 --> 00:01:03,719 此刻的情况是 39 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:03,959 宝贝 40 00:01:03,959 --> 00:01:04,698 我们正在领先 41 00:01:04,698 --> 00:01:05,099 好的 42 00:01:05,099 --> 00:01:06,698 这就是当前的市场情绪 43 00:01:06,698 --> 00:01:06,938 顺便说一句 44 00:01:06,938 --> 00:01:07,899 如果你想关注我 45 00:01:07,899 --> 00:01:10,759 X上，我总在视频描述区链接 46 00:01:10,759 --> 00:01:12,138 观察公开 47 00:01:12,138 --> 00:01:13,278 账户持仓情况 48 00:01:13,278 --> 00:01:14,039 至少部分 49 00:01:14,039 --> 00:01:14,319 呃 50 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:14,599 你知道的 51 00:01:14,599 --> 00:01:19,209 显然，科技股今天正在大幅上涨 52 00:01:19,209 --> 00:01:20,640 但PayPal看这个 53 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,359 这是我们让PayPal上涨的唯一途径 54 00:01:22,359 --> 00:01:23,799 市场其他一切都必须暴跌 55 00:01:23,799 --> 00:01:26,560 如果我们能让道指每天下跌一千点 56 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,560 我认为PayPal最终可能涨到八十或一百美元一股 57 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,319 简直难以置信 58 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:31,859 对啊，看看像CAKE这样的股票 59 00:01:31,859 --> 00:01:32,760 像CELSIUS这样的股票 60 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:33,680 像ATE LARDER这样的股票 61 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,900 这些股票表现异常强劲 62 00:01:35,900 --> 00:01:37,480 尽管外界形势严峻 63 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:38,680 确实如此 64 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,599 那边损失惨重啊 65 00:01:40,599 --> 00:01:41,200 下跌五百点 66 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:42,180 下跌了2% 67 00:01:42,180 --> 00:01:42,400 哦 68 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:42,879 我的天啊 69 00:01:42,879 --> 00:01:45,519 市场从历史高点仅下跌3% 70 00:01:45,519 --> 00:01:46,799 但看这破坏力 71 00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:47,620 微软 72 00:01:47,620 --> 00:01:48,359 微软 73 00:01:48,359 --> 00:01:51,140 通常被视为市场最安全的股票之一 74 00:01:51,140 --> 00:01:53,500 从历史高点下跌30% 75 00:01:53,500 --> 00:01:55,980 帕罗阿尔托网络下跌36% 76 00:01:55,980 --> 00:01:57,719 CrowdStrike下跌38% 77 00:01:57,719 --> 00:02:00,019 Palantir下跌38% 78 00:02:00,019 --> 00:02:01,519 AppLovin暴跌50% 79 00:02:01,519 --> 00:02:05,480 Salesforce通常被视为股市最安全的公司之一 80 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:06,439 下跌50% 81 00:02:06,439 --> 00:02:08,439 从历史高点下跌2% 82 00:02:08,439 --> 00:02:10,900 然后又被腰斩 83 00:02:10,900 --> 00:02:13,840 通常是最安全的投资商业模式之一 84 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:14,900 下跌5% 85 00:02:14,900 --> 00:02:16,649 从历史高点下跌7% 86 00:02:16,649 --> 00:02:18,949 ServiceNow现在下跌近60% 87 00:02:18,949 --> 00:02:20,729 Oracle下跌超60% 88 00:02:20,729 --> 00:02:24,270 Adobe曾被视为全球最安全的商业模式之一 89 00:02:24,270 --> 00:02:25,789 就在两三年前 90 00:02:25,789 --> 00:02:29,360 如今股价从历史高点暴跌65% 91 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,419 外界的破坏力惊人 92 00:02:31,419 --> 00:02:35,289 与此同时比特币和以太坊持续疲软 93 00:02:35,289 --> 00:02:36,770 通常这是需要关注的指标 94 00:02:36,770 --> 00:02:38,650 如果你想判断市场是风险偏好还是风险规避 95 00:02:38,650 --> 00:02:39,469 或风险规避 96 00:02:39,469 --> 00:02:40,969 观察这些弱势表现 97 00:02:40,969 --> 00:02:41,710 女士们先生们 98 00:02:41,710 --> 00:02:43,069 比特币64000美元 99 00:02:43,069 --> 00:02:43,729 试图企稳 100 00:02:43,729 --> 00:02:44,689 可能跌至63000 101 00:02:44,689 --> 00:02:47,770 而且你知道它反弹到了六万美元水平 102 00:02:47,770 --> 00:02:49,210 这已经是几周前的事了吧 103 00:02:49,210 --> 00:02:50,060 在当前时间节点 104 00:02:50,060 --> 00:02:51,139 如果我们看到它跌破支撑 105 00:02:51,139 --> 00:02:54,370 然后跌入50日线区间 注意下方风险 以太坊 106 00:02:54,370 --> 00:02:55,469 这波行情可能还没见底 107 00:02:55,469 --> 00:02:56,590 直到跌破一千美元 108 00:02:56,590 --> 00:02:57,569 比特币周期 109 00:02:57,569 --> 00:03:00,229 过去几个月我多次提到过这一点 110 00:03:00,229 --> 00:03:01,509 我认为这很重要 111 00:03:01,509 --> 00:03:04,460 我们面临的技术面驱动交易 112 00:03:04,460 --> 00:03:05,599 影响非常显著 113 00:03:05,599 --> 00:03:07,060 比特币没有基本面支撑 114 00:03:07,060 --> 00:03:09,939 不像股票那样依赖盈利和营收 115 00:03:09,939 --> 00:03:12,270 以及所有相关指标 116 00:03:12,270 --> 00:03:14,530 比特币高度依赖技术面 117 00:03:14,530 --> 00:03:16,090 这个市场本不该轻易见底 118 00:03:16,090 --> 00:03:17,969 直到今年第四季度 119 00:03:17,969 --> 00:03:19,389 距离现在还有一段时间 120 00:03:19,389 --> 00:03:22,849 底部预计在三万美元以下 121 00:03:23,889 --> 00:03:25,959 介于两万到三万美元之间 122 00:03:25,959 --> 00:03:26,538 请记住 123 00:03:26,538 --> 00:03:27,859 比特币周期可能随时失效 124 00:03:27,859 --> 00:03:29,579 但许多人认为非常准确 125 00:03:29,579 --> 00:03:31,179 请务必留意这一点 126 00:03:31,179 --> 00:03:31,758 女士们先生们 127 00:03:31,758 --> 00:03:33,639 关于这些资产 128 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:34,740 观察一些股票 129 00:03:34,740 --> 00:03:37,120 hymns 已损失近半价值 130 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:38,360 仅过去一个月 131 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,360 这只股票曾达七十多美元 132 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,680 今日股价十五美元 133 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:43,939 这就是残酷现实 134 00:03:43,939 --> 00:03:45,240 微小悲剧 135 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,199 去年夏天曾超四百美元 136 00:03:47,199 --> 00:03:49,569 现跌至123美元 137 00:03:49,569 --> 00:03:51,729 Robinhood 当时150美元 138 00:03:51,729 --> 00:03:52,810 回溯至全盛时期 139 00:03:52,810 --> 00:03:54,590 这只股票跌至7.1美元 140 00:03:54,590 --> 00:03:55,840 市值腰斩 141 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,000 Coinbase 被腰斩不止 142 00:03:58,000 --> 00:03:59,439 去年夏天超四百美元 143 00:03:59,439 --> 00:04:01,289 现为159美元 144 00:04:01,289 --> 00:04:04,930 但未像其他股票跌幅那么深 145 00:04:04,930 --> 00:04:08,069 但SoFi 现已跌至18美元/股 146 00:04:08,069 --> 00:04:08,909 在当前时间节点 147 00:04:08,909 --> 00:04:09,710 小叮当 148 00:04:09,710 --> 00:04:10,270 多邻国 149 00:04:10,270 --> 00:04:11,830 太惨了 150 00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:14,889 这只股票曾超500美元 151 00:04:14,889 --> 00:04:16,370 九个月前 152 00:04:16,370 --> 00:04:17,670 我们在谈论一个婴儿 153 00:04:17,670 --> 00:04:19,240 我们在谈论一个婴儿 154 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,079 今天这里价格是一百零六美元 155 00:04:23,079 --> 00:04:24,939 从五百多加上九个月前 156 00:04:24,939 --> 00:04:25,980 算算这笔账 157 00:04:25,980 --> 00:04:27,230 哦好的 158 00:04:27,230 --> 00:04:28,990 今天我们想讨论的三个核心主题 159 00:04:28,990 --> 00:04:29,389 在这部分里 160 00:04:29,389 --> 00:04:33,500 好的，第一个问题是，我什么时候打算抛掉这些特斯拉对冲头寸 161 00:04:33,500 --> 00:04:33,860 好的 162 00:04:33,860 --> 00:04:35,079 它们开始升值了 163 00:04:35,079 --> 00:04:37,360 我什么时候该割肉并转移这笔资金 164 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:38,819 这笔钱要转移到哪里 165 00:04:38,819 --> 00:04:39,259 好的 166 00:04:39,259 --> 00:04:40,540 第二个主题 167 00:04:40,540 --> 00:04:41,939 PayPal PayPal 168 00:04:41,939 --> 00:04:43,540 这股票真是糟糕透了 169 00:04:43,540 --> 00:04:44,819 我们都清楚这是死钱 170 00:04:44,819 --> 00:04:49,189 过去几年可能会有快速赚钱的机会 171 00:04:49,189 --> 00:04:50,129 我会详细说明 172 00:04:50,129 --> 00:04:51,629 带你们了解现状 173 00:04:51,629 --> 00:04:53,850 如果某些条件达成 174 00:04:53,850 --> 00:04:56,310 未来六到九个月内可能赚大钱 175 00:04:56,310 --> 00:04:58,310 我会带你们了解情况 176 00:04:58,310 --> 00:05:01,310 并说明风险，毕竟这些都不是保证 177 00:05:01,310 --> 00:05:01,730 好的 178 00:05:01,730 --> 00:05:03,290 今天我们第三个主题 179 00:05:03,290 --> 00:05:05,589 今天讨论的是市场是否将持续下行 180 00:05:05,589 --> 00:05:07,910 直到四季度 181 00:05:07,910 --> 00:05:10,449 这基本符合 182 00:05:10,449 --> 00:05:14,290 比特币接下来的走势 183 00:05:14,290 --> 00:05:15,769 我们现在可以预测六七个月后 184 00:05:15,769 --> 00:05:16,620 在此时此刻 185 00:05:16,620 --> 00:05:16,939 好的 186 00:05:16,939 --> 00:05:18,660 我们会在视频中详细探讨这些 187 00:05:18,660 --> 00:05:19,980 只需要大家做一件事 188 00:05:19,980 --> 00:05:21,180 如果还没做的话 189 00:05:21,180 --> 00:05:23,040 请务必点个赞 190 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,240 点个赞 191 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:24,939 按钮 192 00:05:24,939 --> 00:05:25,990 这对我来说意义重大 193 00:05:25,990 --> 00:05:27,470 感谢已经点赞的各位 194 00:05:27,470 --> 00:05:29,470 另外请确保订阅频道 195 00:05:29,470 --> 00:05:30,410 如果还没订阅 196 00:05:30,410 --> 00:05:31,389 请务必订阅 197 00:05:31,389 --> 00:05:37,000 现在频道订阅数接近九十二万 198 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,120 这简直疯狂 199 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,000 如果有人告诉我 200 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,360 我会拥有九十二万订阅者 201 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:42,199 我会说像什么 202 00:05:42,199 --> 00:05:43,500 你得翻我的煎饼 203 00:05:43,500 --> 00:05:44,620 绝不可能 204 00:05:44,620 --> 00:05:45,970 但我们现在就在这里 205 00:05:45,970 --> 00:05:46,490 好吧 206 00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:47,029 女士们先生们 207 00:05:47,029 --> 00:05:47,410 听我说 208 00:05:47,410 --> 00:05:49,290 我必须提到一件事 209 00:05:49,290 --> 00:05:50,798 AMD 210 00:05:51,399 --> 00:05:53,959 此刻股市正在运行 211 00:05:53,959 --> 00:05:54,858 这些结论 212 00:05:54,858 --> 00:05:56,879 AI即将接管一切对吧 213 00:05:56,879 --> 00:05:58,420 这会让萨西相关 214 00:05:58,420 --> 00:05:59,699 会让一切变得无关 215 00:05:59,699 --> 00:06:01,399 一切一切都不相关 216 00:06:01,399 --> 00:06:02,759 直接用AI解决吧 217 00:06:02,759 --> 00:06:04,339 它会消灭所有人的工作 218 00:06:04,339 --> 00:06:05,850 我不知道该怎么办 219 00:06:05,850 --> 00:06:06,430 好吧 220 00:06:06,430 --> 00:06:10,230 所以我们现在处于这个时刻 221 00:06:10,230 --> 00:06:12,860 结论和AMD股价跌破两百 222 00:06:12,860 --> 00:06:13,899 让这合理起来 223 00:06:13,899 --> 00:06:15,100 这完全不合理 224 00:06:15,100 --> 00:06:17,540 这就是我说市场只运行这些结论 225 00:06:17,540 --> 00:06:18,319 太疯狂了 226 00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:18,740 因为 227 00:06:18,740 --> 00:06:20,579 如果你真的遵循这个结论 228 00:06:20,579 --> 00:06:23,920 你知道未来几年需要多少AMD芯片 229 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:25,740 你知道需要多少NVIDIA芯片 230 00:06:25,740 --> 00:06:28,430 如果AI真的全面接管 231 00:06:28,430 --> 00:06:30,250 天啊 232 00:06:30,250 --> 00:06:32,339 AMD现在应该一千多 233 00:06:32,339 --> 00:06:34,279 NVIDIA现在应该一千多 234 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:35,500 而不是两百以下 235 00:06:35,500 --> 00:06:36,180 这太荒谬了 236 00:06:36,180 --> 00:06:36,819 好吧 237 00:06:36,819 --> 00:06:37,620 疯狂 238 00:06:37,620 --> 00:06:38,319 疯狂 239 00:06:38,319 --> 00:06:38,879 好吧 240 00:06:38,879 --> 00:06:40,668 特斯拉对冲 241 00:06:40,668 --> 00:06:42,209 我什么时候能裁掉这些理发师 242 00:06:42,209 --> 00:06:43,519 所以你知道的 243 00:06:43,519 --> 00:06:45,639 关于特斯拉公开账户的对冲 244 00:06:45,639 --> 00:06:46,800 他们表现尚可 245 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,339 但目前为止还不够出色 246 00:06:50,339 --> 00:06:51,779 其中一个对冲上涨了 247 00:06:51,779 --> 00:06:53,199 约五千美元 248 00:06:53,199 --> 00:06:54,939 对冲上涨至三千一百 249 00:06:54,939 --> 00:06:55,879 我不知道为什么 250 00:06:55,879 --> 00:06:58,149 我觉得其中一个有现金 251 00:06:58,149 --> 00:06:59,029 其中一个处于保证金状态 252 00:06:59,029 --> 00:07:01,089 所以像分割它们或者随便怎么做对吧 253 00:07:01,089 --> 00:07:01,610 请记住 254 00:07:01,610 --> 00:07:04,649 我不在公共账户中进行保证金投资 255 00:07:04,649 --> 00:07:05,350 啊 256 00:07:05,350 --> 00:07:06,970 这会带来很多风险 257 00:07:06,970 --> 00:07:07,230 好的 258 00:07:07,230 --> 00:07:11,459 我可以保证金操作三百万多美元 259 00:07:11,459 --> 00:07:13,860 如果我想的话当然没有兴趣这么做 260 00:07:13,860 --> 00:07:15,259 我不想处理保证金追缴 261 00:07:15,259 --> 00:07:16,220 市场疯狂波动 262 00:07:16,220 --> 00:07:18,470 啰嗦这些不过暂且不提 263 00:07:18,470 --> 00:07:20,310 我什么时候要割掉这些头寸 264 00:07:20,310 --> 00:07:21,790 这是我目前的想法 265 00:07:21,790 --> 00:07:26,269 计划减持一半获利了结 266 00:07:26,269 --> 00:07:30,100 当指数从历史高点下跌7%以上时 267 00:07:30,100 --> 00:07:31,759 我们离这个点不远了 268 00:07:31,759 --> 00:07:35,779 目前指数已从历史高点回落5.5% 269 00:07:35,779 --> 00:07:37,899 一旦达到这个点 270 00:07:37,899 --> 00:07:39,680 我现在准备行动 271 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:44,338 你可能觉得我在等待特斯拉特定事件 272 00:07:44,338 --> 00:07:45,399 其实不是 273 00:07:45,399 --> 00:07:48,139 这个特斯拉对冲其实围绕市场走势 274 00:07:48,139 --> 00:07:49,689 向下调整 275 00:07:50,319 --> 00:07:52,000 特斯拉是很好的对冲工具 276 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,639 因为它估值极其疯狂 277 00:07:53,639 --> 00:07:54,920 如果市场风险偏好下降 278 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:56,720 特斯拉通常跌幅更大 279 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:57,079 没错 280 00:07:57,079 --> 00:07:59,060 看看今天的情况 281 00:07:59,060 --> 00:08:00,339 像今天这样的日子 282 00:08:00,339 --> 00:08:03,509 纳斯达克下跌了一个点 283 00:08:03,509 --> 00:08:05,850 大约2%或类似幅度 284 00:08:05,850 --> 00:08:08,860 正确且观察指数的跌幅 285 00:08:11,819 --> 00:08:14,608 指数已下跌 286 00:08:14,608 --> 00:08:15,709 我认为是指数 287 00:08:15,709 --> 00:08:16,949 大概在这里 288 00:08:16,949 --> 00:08:17,749 这里有指数 289 00:08:17,749 --> 00:08:18,949 指数下跌一个点 290 00:08:18,949 --> 00:08:21,009 指数下跌2%, 特斯拉下跌 291 00:08:21,009 --> 00:08:22,649 你知道的3% 292 00:08:22,649 --> 00:08:26,689 特斯拉跌幅是指数的两倍多 293 00:08:26,689 --> 00:08:29,269 这就是为什么我看空特斯拉 294 00:08:29,269 --> 00:08:32,700 在市场下行时抛售更剧烈 295 00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:33,899 比纳斯达克更明显 296 00:08:33,899 --> 00:08:35,620 股价可能达500美元左右 297 00:08:35,620 --> 00:08:39,460 没错这就是为什么围绕市场 298 00:08:39,460 --> 00:08:40,100 向下调整 299 00:08:40,100 --> 00:08:41,479 对冲而非其他 300 00:08:41,479 --> 00:08:41,778 哦 301 00:08:41,778 --> 00:08:43,578 这就像基于特斯拉的基础面 302 00:08:43,578 --> 00:08:44,058 你知道的 303 00:08:44,058 --> 00:08:45,558 比如特斯拉的基本面之类的东西 304 00:08:45,558 --> 00:08:47,200 因为我们知道特斯拉的市盈率非常高 305 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:48,779 各种指标都疯狂，对吧 306 00:08:48,779 --> 00:08:50,000 我们不需要深入讨论这个 307 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:51,320 这其实更多是市场走势驱动 308 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:52,360 在我看来是 309 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:53,669 我会卖出剩余的 310 00:08:53,669 --> 00:08:56,769 如果且当队列下降10%时 311 00:08:56,769 --> 00:08:57,269 另外 312 00:08:57,269 --> 00:08:58,230 那就是时机 313 00:08:58,230 --> 00:09:00,110 我会说你知道的，我这就结束这事了 314 00:09:00,110 --> 00:09:02,149 但这并不意味着市场就到底了 315 00:09:02,149 --> 00:09:03,250 我可能还会继续下跌 316 00:09:03,250 --> 00:09:06,529 我不担心非要抓到完美时机 317 00:09:06,529 --> 00:09:10,409 现在特斯拉可能继续下跌 318 00:09:10,409 --> 00:09:13,490 无论市场如何接下来6到9个月 319 00:09:13,490 --> 00:09:16,980 原因在于如果他们完成SpaceX的IPO 320 00:09:16,980 --> 00:09:17,460 IPO 321 00:09:17,460 --> 00:09:20,539 我认为这会大量资金流出特斯拉股票 322 00:09:20,539 --> 00:09:21,379 实际上 323 00:09:21,379 --> 00:09:23,720 你知道，这会带来巨大抛压 324 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,340 因为人们会想买入SpaceX 325 00:09:25,340 --> 00:09:28,230 因为那将成为全球最激动人心的公司 326 00:09:28,230 --> 00:09:28,830 天啊 327 00:09:28,830 --> 00:09:30,370 我们要进军太空做这些事 328 00:09:30,370 --> 00:09:32,129 对，还有星链等等 329 00:09:32,129 --> 00:09:33,580 所以这就是 330 00:09:33,580 --> 00:09:34,730 我到这里为止 331 00:09:34,730 --> 00:09:36,090 总结来说 332 00:09:36,090 --> 00:09:38,549 假设队列本周再跌5% 333 00:09:38,549 --> 00:09:39,549 这大概率不会发生 334 00:09:39,549 --> 00:09:40,889 但假设发生 335 00:09:40,889 --> 00:09:43,509 我可能本周全部补仓特斯拉 336 00:09:43,509 --> 00:09:44,990 谈到特斯拉对冲 337 00:09:44,990 --> 00:09:46,809 然后我要把这笔钱投入哪里 338 00:09:46,809 --> 00:09:47,850 我马上告诉你 339 00:09:47,850 --> 00:09:50,089 我将把这笔钱投入哪里 340 00:09:50,089 --> 00:09:53,909 这样我就能获得超过十万的收益 341 00:09:53,909 --> 00:09:56,649 我会将资金转向SaaS股票 342 00:09:56,649 --> 00:09:58,190 比如Salesforce CRM 343 00:09:58,190 --> 00:09:59,210 比如Adobe 344 00:09:59,210 --> 00:10:00,679 比如ServiceNow 345 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,159 这些股票似乎在Q1可能见底 346 00:10:04,159 --> 00:10:06,879 这也是我快速建仓的原因 347 00:10:06,879 --> 00:10:08,720 如果你看看我买的标的 348 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,070 以及我在Q1重点布局的 349 00:10:12,070 --> 00:10:12,950 这是什么 350 00:10:12,950 --> 00:10:14,200 这是SaaS股票 351 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,279 因为我真正相信这些股票很可能在Q1见底 352 00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:18,539 我可能在这方面错了 353 00:10:18,539 --> 00:10:19,589 也许他们从未购买 354 00:10:19,589 --> 00:10:22,769 也许他们的商业模式将在未来几年完全被侵蚀 355 00:10:22,769 --> 00:10:23,349 由人工智能 356 00:10:23,349 --> 00:10:25,379 它们将变得完全无关紧要 357 00:10:25,379 --> 00:10:28,019 我完全不认同这种观点 358 00:10:28,019 --> 00:10:30,419 我认为市场完全搞错了 359 00:10:30,419 --> 00:10:34,359 我认为某些商业模式绝对会 360 00:10:34,359 --> 00:10:36,119 变得无关紧要 361 00:10:36,119 --> 00:10:37,058 三年后 362 00:10:37,058 --> 00:10:40,429 五年后AI将取代 363 00:10:40,429 --> 00:10:42,250 但我并不认为Salesforce 364 00:10:42,250 --> 00:10:43,909 我不认为ServiceNow 365 00:10:43,909 --> 00:10:45,730 我不认为是Adobe 366 00:10:45,730 --> 00:10:48,279 而你越接触现实世界 367 00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:51,840 就越会意识到无法简单替代这些公司 368 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,769 不是这样的 369 00:10:53,769 --> 00:10:56,009 我是说我和andre合作密切 370 00:10:56,009 --> 00:10:58,950 他前几天周末给了我一个很好的例子 371 00:10:58,950 --> 00:11:00,610 他正尝试让AI 372 00:11:00,610 --> 00:11:01,490 我认为他在使用Chat 373 00:11:01,490 --> 00:11:02,879 最新GPT模型 374 00:11:02,879 --> 00:11:04,299 他试图让AI 375 00:11:04,299 --> 00:11:07,960 为他纸上写的内容做一个简单示例 376 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,080 但它做不到 377 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,529 因为他写在图上的CNBC 378 00:11:12,529 --> 00:11:14,190 由于他写了CNBC 379 00:11:14,190 --> 00:11:16,929 系统误以为这是来自CNBC的内容 380 00:11:16,929 --> 00:11:17,330 其实并非如此 381 00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:19,769 这是他完全原创的内容 382 00:11:19,769 --> 00:11:21,970 他只是标注了CNBC 383 00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:23,230 因为这与 384 00:11:23,230 --> 00:11:23,649 你知道的 385 00:11:23,649 --> 00:11:24,129 有点像 386 00:11:24,129 --> 00:11:24,470 你知道的 387 00:11:24,470 --> 00:11:27,629 听CNBC这类节目与实际做研究 388 00:11:27,629 --> 00:11:29,590 它甚至做不到 389 00:11:29,590 --> 00:11:30,389 那他该怎么办 390 00:11:30,389 --> 00:11:31,629 他必须用Photoshop 391 00:11:31,629 --> 00:11:34,850 Adobe产品亲自完成 392 00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:35,970 这只是我们反复发现的现象 393 00:11:35,970 --> 00:11:37,850 我们一次又一次发现 394 00:11:37,850 --> 00:11:40,340 当你想让AI完成某事 395 00:11:40,340 --> 00:11:41,580 但它根本做不到 396 00:11:41,580 --> 00:11:43,139 因为存在这个问题或那个问题 397 00:11:43,139 --> 00:11:44,720 或者它根本无法高质量完成 398 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,460 你得让它看起来更好 399 00:11:46,460 --> 00:11:49,589 结果反而更麻烦 400 00:11:49,589 --> 00:11:50,229 你知道吗 401 00:11:50,229 --> 00:11:54,509 你可以在Photoshop里五分钟内完成并完全按照自己的想法操作 402 00:11:54,509 --> 00:11:57,460 或者花二十分钟折腾聊天机器人 403 00:11:57,460 --> 00:11:59,179 结果还是不符合你的预期 404 00:11:59,179 --> 00:12:00,580 它一遍又一遍出错 405 00:12:00,580 --> 00:12:02,120 简直让人无语 406 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:03,419 有些人可能会想 407 00:12:03,419 --> 00:12:08,769 总有一天这些技术会好到不需要Adobe 408 00:12:08,769 --> 00:12:10,149 或者根本不需要这些工具 409 00:12:10,149 --> 00:12:12,500 我们拭目以待 410 00:12:12,500 --> 00:12:15,179 但目前它还不存在 411 00:12:15,179 --> 00:12:16,279 这种情况可能发生吗 412 00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:17,379 当然可能发生 413 00:12:17,379 --> 00:12:19,000 但今天还没出现 414 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,120 这就是我的观点 415 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:22,940 关于这类股票 416 00:12:22,940 --> 00:12:23,139 还有 417 00:12:23,139 --> 00:12:29,590 通常在市场某个阶段 418 00:12:29,590 --> 00:12:33,210 整个行业和领域都会遭受重创 419 00:12:33,210 --> 00:12:34,210 当我提到‘崩溃’时 420 00:12:34,210 --> 00:12:35,590 完全是指股价表现 421 00:12:35,590 --> 00:12:36,769 因为商业模式看起来很棒 422 00:12:36,769 --> 00:12:39,100 比以往任何时候都更优秀 423 00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:40,980 现在几乎所有公司都公布了数据 424 00:12:40,980 --> 00:12:42,240 他们的业绩惊人 425 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:43,419 如果有的话 426 00:12:43,419 --> 00:12:44,220 他们指引更高的增长 427 00:12:44,220 --> 00:12:44,970 对吧 428 00:12:44,970 --> 00:12:45,889 优秀的指引 429 00:12:45,889 --> 00:12:47,409 太棒了 430 00:12:47,409 --> 00:12:52,029 但市场却对这些股票恐慌 431 00:12:52,029 --> 00:12:56,109 需要股票出现极度低估 432 00:12:56,109 --> 00:12:57,249 才能真正触底 433 00:12:57,249 --> 00:12:59,408 记得Meta股价跌破百元 434 00:12:59,408 --> 00:13:00,229 股价太离谱 435 00:13:00,229 --> 00:13:01,679 简直疯狂 436 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,580 还记得2022年的英伟达吗 437 00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:06,620 还记得Shopify跌至22.5美元 438 00:13:06,620 --> 00:13:10,899 还记得Netflix在2022年崩盘 439 00:13:10,899 --> 00:13:12,860 必须要有极度低估 440 00:13:12,860 --> 00:13:14,409 这就是所需的情况 441 00:13:14,409 --> 00:13:17,450 现在SaaS股票已经出现这种情况 442 00:13:17,450 --> 00:13:19,330 这也是我认为接近底部的原因 443 00:13:19,330 --> 00:13:22,429 Salesforce现价40美元以下 444 00:13:22,429 --> 00:13:26,269 营收增长两位数，每股收益强劲增长 445 00:13:26,269 --> 00:13:31,839 Adobe市盈率10倍，每股收益强劲 446 00:13:31,839 --> 00:13:32,859 营收增长两位数 447 00:13:32,859 --> 00:13:35,599 营收增长高个位数 448 00:13:35,599 --> 00:13:36,759 或低两位数 449 00:13:36,759 --> 00:13:37,259 没错 450 00:13:37,259 --> 00:13:39,879 当前服务已降至前向p值24 451 00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:42,600 这是一家营收和每股收益持续增长的公司 452 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,620 大约以20%的速度增长 453 00:13:45,620 --> 00:13:48,620 Salesforce的销售定价已变得荒谬 454 00:13:48,620 --> 00:13:49,500 Adobe服务 455 00:13:49,500 --> 00:13:49,779 现在 456 00:13:49,779 --> 00:13:50,740 这类股票的情况 457 00:13:50,740 --> 00:13:52,039 这简直太离谱了 458 00:13:52,039 --> 00:13:54,399 但这就是我们目前的处境 459 00:13:54,399 --> 00:13:55,779 这就是我们现在的状况 460 00:13:55,779 --> 00:14:00,830 这也是为什么我认为Q1可能是这些股票的底部 461 00:14:00,830 --> 00:14:02,099 现在 462 00:14:02,099 --> 00:14:04,038 理解当前的情况非常重要 463 00:14:04,038 --> 00:14:06,139 当你考虑这些SaaS股票时 464 00:14:06,139 --> 00:14:08,938 以及它们如何与MLLM模型互动 465 00:14:08,938 --> 00:14:09,918 以及所有这些相关事物 466 00:14:09,918 --> 00:14:10,359 我说 467 00:14:10,359 --> 00:14:14,990 LLM公司需要SaaS公司，而LLM公司将大量盈利 468 00:14:14,990 --> 00:14:15,769 依赖SaaS公司 469 00:14:15,769 --> 00:14:19,578 你精准抓住了2026年初科技市场的核心矛盾 470 00:14:19,578 --> 00:14:23,139 你描述的正是软件世界的LLM税 471 00:14:23,139 --> 00:14:23,850 没错 472 00:14:23,850 --> 00:14:27,610 这种关系既是互利共生又是寄生依存 473 00:14:27,610 --> 00:14:29,700 截至2026年2月 474 00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:33,940 这是LLM提供商之间收入提取的现实表现 475 00:14:33,940 --> 00:14:34,500 OpenAI 476 00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:35,100 Anthropic 477 00:14:35,100 --> 00:14:37,220 谷歌和Salesforce等SaaS巨头 478 00:14:37,220 --> 00:14:44,100 微软的LLM需要SaaS作为分发渠道，ML公司掌握核心智能 479 00:14:44,100 --> 00:14:47,659 但SaaS公司掌握业务流程的上下文 480 00:14:47,659 --> 00:14:53,620 数据墙和LLM只有看到数据才有价值 481 00:14:53,620 --> 00:14:54,460 当它看到数据时 482 00:14:54,460 --> 00:14:55,399 必须看到数据 483 00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:57,899 如果Salesforce掌握公司所有数据 484 00:14:57,899 --> 00:14:58,460 你知道的 485 00:14:58,460 --> 00:15:00,940 销售部门需要这些数据 486 00:15:00,940 --> 00:15:02,500 无法绕过这一点 487 00:15:02,500 --> 00:15:04,220 这正是关键所在 488 00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:06,440 然后开始使用LLM模型 489 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,720 Salesforce拥有二十年的客户历史数据 490 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:16,980 现在掌握所有公司提交的IT工单 491 00:15:16,980 --> 00:15:20,799 LLM就像一间暗室里的聪明人 492 00:15:20,799 --> 00:15:21,940 非常准确地说 493 00:15:21,940 --> 00:15:24,399 整合工作流程习惯 494 00:15:24,399 --> 00:15:26,519 人们不愿离开应用 495 00:15:26,519 --> 00:15:27,600 用GPT处理工作 496 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:28,960 希望留在应用内 497 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:35,359 企业需要SaaS作为智能交付载体 498 00:15:35,359 --> 00:15:38,909 更不用说SaaS作为收费通道盈利 499 00:15:38,909 --> 00:15:42,370 这才是盈利核心所在 500 00:15:42,370 --> 00:15:46,649 大型语言模型提供商实际上已转变为数字基础设施 501 00:15:46,649 --> 00:15:48,230 就像讲座公司 502 00:15:48,230 --> 00:15:49,828 该平台 503 00:15:49,828 --> 00:15:55,448 每当用户在萨萨帕的AI代理中请求总结会议 504 00:15:55,448 --> 00:15:56,750 草拟这封邮件 505 00:15:56,750 --> 00:16:01,818 该SaaS公司只需向LLM提供商支付几分之一美分的令牌费用 506 00:16:01,818 --> 00:16:03,119 利润挤压 507 00:16:03,119 --> 00:16:05,960 以谷歌客服SaaS公司为例 508 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:10,620 他们可能会向客户收取一美元用于非谷歌的自动化服务 509 00:16:10,620 --> 00:16:11,000 顺便说一句 510 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:11,320 确实如此 511 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:11,919 呃 512 00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:12,519 戈尔吉 513 00:16:12,519 --> 00:16:12,940 是的 514 00:16:12,940 --> 00:16:14,828 没错，所以戈尔吉亚 515 00:16:14,828 --> 00:16:19,168 他们可能会向客户收取一美元用于自动化AI交互 516 00:16:19,168 --> 00:16:22,989 但他们必须直接向LLM提供商支付约两美分 517 00:16:22,989 --> 00:16:24,590 用于计算规模 518 00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:30,190 截至2025年末，OpenAI的年经常性收入估计达200亿美元 519 00:16:30,190 --> 00:16:33,889 其中大部分并非来自每月20美元的订阅费 520 00:16:33,889 --> 00:16:38,169 而是来自数千家接入其API的SaaS公司 521 00:16:38,169 --> 00:16:41,070 SaaS公司如何应对使用成本 522 00:16:41,070 --> 00:16:42,029 基于用量计费 523 00:16:42,029 --> 00:16:46,870 SaaS公司停止按用户收费，改为按任务计费 524 00:16:46,870 --> 00:16:50,870 以确保将LLM成本转嫁给客户 525 00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:51,490 公司们 526 00:16:51,490 --> 00:16:52,649 如Salesforce和服务 527 00:16:52,649 --> 00:17:00,470 现在正在训练自己的小型LLM以停止向OpenAI付费 528 00:17:00,470 --> 00:17:06,299 部分SaaS公司现在向LLM提供商收取访问数据的费用 529 00:17:06,299 --> 00:17:07,980 试图反向征税 530 00:17:07,980 --> 00:17:08,579 嗯 531 00:17:08,579 --> 00:17:09,779 非常有趣 532 00:17:09,779 --> 00:17:10,660 没错 533 00:17:10,660 --> 00:17:14,160 因此LLM公司成为互联网的新房东 534 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,660 他们正在攫取SaaS公司原本自留的大部分价值 535 00:17:18,660 --> 00:17:19,359 值得商榷 536 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,559 因为我们2026年将出现新任务 537 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:25,440 问题不在于LLM能否赚钱 538 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,640 而在于SaaS能否保留利润 539 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,819 或SaaS公司还能否有利润 540 00:17:30,819 --> 00:17:33,839 一旦房东抽成，剧透预警 541 00:17:33,839 --> 00:17:35,279 最终仍有大量利润 542 00:17:35,279 --> 00:17:37,680 最终仍有大量利润留存 543 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:38,039 没错 544 00:17:38,039 --> 00:17:39,319 大笔收益 545 00:17:39,319 --> 00:17:40,759 大笔收益 546 00:17:40,759 --> 00:17:41,920 你知道马克· 547 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:42,559 贝尼奥夫 548 00:17:42,559 --> 00:17:43,579 让我告诉你 549 00:17:43,579 --> 00:17:44,099 好的 550 00:17:44,099 --> 00:17:46,660 大本尼总能找到办法分一杯羹 551 00:17:46,660 --> 00:17:47,200 好吧 552 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,868 你觉得大本尼会就这样轻易放过吗 553 00:17:49,868 --> 00:17:50,489 哦先生 554 00:17:50,489 --> 00:17:51,128 阿尔特曼 555 00:17:51,128 --> 00:17:51,368 好吧 556 00:17:51,368 --> 00:17:52,288 你拿走了所有钱 557 00:17:52,288 --> 00:17:53,028 我不会离开的 558 00:17:53,028 --> 00:17:54,868 别过来啊兄弟 559 00:17:54,868 --> 00:17:56,079 音乐 560 00:17:56,079 --> 00:17:57,960 他肯定要赚大钱了 561 00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:59,240 最后你开什么玩笑 562 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:00,119 这整个AI浪潮 563 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:02,079 麦克德莫特 564 00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:02,680 这些家伙们 565 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,809 天啊 566 00:18:03,809 --> 00:18:05,349 天啊 567 00:18:05,349 --> 00:18:08,150 他们肯定看着股价下跌还在笑 568 00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:09,130 他们只是在嘲笑 569 00:18:09,130 --> 00:18:11,720 因为他们知道已经掌握了先机，而人们 570 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:12,599 还没意识到这点 571 00:18:12,599 --> 00:18:12,960 没错 572 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:13,799 但他们终会明白 573 00:18:13,799 --> 00:18:15,789 股市里这种情况经常发生 574 00:18:15,789 --> 00:18:20,750 Salesforce的Agent Force平台在持续性营收中迅速普及 575 00:18:20,750 --> 00:18:24,420 2026财年第三季度收入突破五亿四千万美元 576 00:18:24,420 --> 00:18:27,099 同比增长三百三十个百分点 577 00:18:27,099 --> 00:18:28,240 三百三十个百分点 578 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:29,440 同比激增 579 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:30,640 结合数据云 580 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,349 这些AI工具实现年营收近一 581 00:18:33,349 --> 00:18:35,630 四亿美元的持续营收 582 00:18:35,630 --> 00:18:41,079 该平台已促成超过九千五百笔付费交易 583 00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:47,329 Agent Force是Salesforce实现六十亿美元营收目标的关键 584 00:18:47,329 --> 00:18:49,829 到2030年 585 00:18:50,339 --> 00:18:51,660 各位女士们先生们 586 00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:53,980 就在两个月半前我们刚听到Salesforce的消息 587 00:18:53,980 --> 00:18:56,640 顺便说一下，我们下周还会再次听到Salesforce的消息 588 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:57,440 好吧 589 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,180 你知道Salesforce发生了什么吗 590 00:18:59,180 --> 00:19:01,240 他们上调了业绩预期 591 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:02,799 他们没有下调预期 592 00:19:02,799 --> 00:19:08,200 Agent Force突破五亿美元后他们上调了预期 593 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:08,859 好吧 594 00:19:08,859 --> 00:19:12,880 现在情况就是这样 595 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,589 最终本尼会从这赚得盆满钵满 596 00:19:15,589 --> 00:19:17,329 但市场还没看懂 597 00:19:17,329 --> 00:19:20,279 没错，很多公司都会从中获利 598 00:19:20,279 --> 00:19:21,599 市场还没看懂 599 00:19:21,599 --> 00:19:23,720 他们不清楚具体运作方式 600 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,740 他们以为LMS会独占所有利润 601 00:19:25,740 --> 00:19:26,680 或者类似的东西 602 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:26,960 不 603 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:27,220 不 604 00:19:27,220 --> 00:19:27,500 不 605 00:19:27,500 --> 00:19:27,740 不 606 00:19:27,740 --> 00:19:28,000 不 607 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:28,279 不 608 00:19:28,279 --> 00:19:28,859 不 609 00:19:28,859 --> 00:19:29,460 SaaS 610 00:19:29,460 --> 00:19:31,140 最终企业将赚得盆满钵满 611 00:19:31,140 --> 00:19:33,079 关于这个游戏的事 612 00:19:33,079 --> 00:19:34,799 所以记住这一点 613 00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:35,259 没错 614 00:19:35,259 --> 00:19:36,949 今天我醒来时 615 00:19:36,949 --> 00:19:40,970 你知道这里一切差不多都一样 616 00:19:41,250 --> 00:19:42,930 邻居们还在继续射击 617 00:19:42,930 --> 00:19:43,710 明年的 618 00:19:43,710 --> 00:19:44,009 亲爱的 619 00:19:45,329 --> 00:19:46,009 呃，听着 620 00:19:46,009 --> 00:19:48,819 你知道我做了同样的事情 621 00:19:48,819 --> 00:19:49,299 你知道的 622 00:19:49,299 --> 00:19:50,180 如果我想看什么 623 00:19:50,180 --> 00:19:50,940 我就去YouTube 624 00:19:50,940 --> 00:19:54,940 如果我想去我的私人群组并在Discord聊天 625 00:19:54,940 --> 00:19:56,000 我就去Discord 626 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:56,779 如果我想去X平台 627 00:19:56,779 --> 00:19:57,529 我就去X 628 00:19:57,529 --> 00:20:00,410 如果我想调出我的大量观看列表 629 00:20:00,410 --> 00:20:01,210 我就去TradingView 630 00:20:01,210 --> 00:20:03,009 这很快会在千X上完成 631 00:20:03,009 --> 00:20:03,450 顺便说一句 632 00:20:03,450 --> 00:20:05,849 提示提示当我做所有研究时 633 00:20:05,849 --> 00:20:08,569 关于公司估值和财报会议的事 634 00:20:08,569 --> 00:20:09,769 以及今天所有这些内容 635 00:20:09,769 --> 00:20:12,569 我用了千X Talks.com 636 00:20:12,569 --> 00:20:16,130 如果我想与小型企业中的个人沟通 637 00:20:16,130 --> 00:20:18,730 我们去Slack讨论事情 638 00:20:18,730 --> 00:20:21,190 Loom是我录视频的地方 639 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,440 所有相同的软件 640 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:24,839 我不是在做YouTube的 vibe 编码 641 00:20:24,839 --> 00:20:26,079 我不是在做Next的 vibe 编码 642 00:20:26,079 --> 00:20:28,119 我不是在做Discord或TradingView的 vibe 编码 643 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,599 千X或Slack或Zoom等等 644 00:20:30,599 --> 00:20:34,160 这些软件每天都在使用，不会被取代 645 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,200 这不会发生 646 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:36,319 人工智能并非新事物 647 00:20:36,319 --> 00:20:37,839 它已经存在多年了 648 00:20:37,839 --> 00:20:41,618 此时此刻就是这样，所以我 649 00:20:41,618 --> 00:20:44,118 我对做vibe编码毫无兴趣 650 00:20:44,118 --> 00:20:45,499 用Slack来省钱 651 00:20:45,499 --> 00:20:47,499 所以我们可以有一个糟糕得多的服务 652 00:20:47,499 --> 00:20:48,630 充满各种漏洞 653 00:20:48,630 --> 00:20:49,609 只是不吸引人 654 00:20:49,609 --> 00:20:51,549 我对氛围编码不感兴趣 655 00:20:51,549 --> 00:20:53,670 像某种Discord替代品 656 00:20:53,670 --> 00:20:55,430 这样我可以有私人的股票群成员 657 00:20:55,430 --> 00:20:58,730 而不是用Discord，这不行 658 00:20:58,730 --> 00:21:00,309 这简直荒谬 659 00:21:00,309 --> 00:21:01,329 简直太荒谬了 660 00:21:01,329 --> 00:21:04,000 你知道我在千禧X上做的事 661 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,059 通过LMS做这些事要花我一辈子 662 00:21:07,059 --> 00:21:07,839 天啊 663 00:21:07,839 --> 00:21:08,920 甚至做不好 664 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,140 相比千禧X只会一团糟 665 00:21:11,140 --> 00:21:13,599 而且操作简单易行 666 00:21:13,599 --> 00:21:17,150 所以有时候在现实世界里 667 00:21:17,150 --> 00:21:18,950 你得想想自己到底在做什么 668 00:21:18,950 --> 00:21:20,309 所以我使用 669 00:21:20,309 --> 00:21:24,159 AI，我几乎每天都在用谷歌Gemini 670 00:21:24,159 --> 00:21:26,378 这才是自然的工作流程 671 00:21:26,378 --> 00:21:28,459 但说到 672 00:21:28,459 --> 00:21:29,759 它会取代一切 673 00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:31,699 我们只需用这些工具 674 00:21:31,699 --> 00:21:32,920 拜托啊 675 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:33,200 就像 676 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:33,680 这简直 677 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:34,500 太荒谬了 678 00:21:34,500 --> 00:21:37,119 没错，股市有 679 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:37,720 你知道的 680 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,220 关于长期真相的是 681 00:21:40,220 --> 00:21:41,240 就像我之前 682 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,559 这是我今天听到的最荒谬的事 683 00:21:43,559 --> 00:21:45,539 CNBC在背景里 684 00:21:45,539 --> 00:21:46,659 我工作时 685 00:21:46,659 --> 00:21:48,098 他们说 686 00:21:48,098 --> 00:21:49,659 这个人上去说 687 00:21:49,659 --> 00:21:50,920 他说 688 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,220 他比较这些SaaS公司 689 00:21:53,220 --> 00:21:54,039 最伟大的 690 00:21:54,039 --> 00:21:56,039 我们见过的最伟大的商业模式 691 00:21:56,039 --> 00:21:58,490 他比作报纸 692 00:21:58,490 --> 00:22:03,029 像报纸的商业模式 693 00:22:03,029 --> 00:22:03,410 你知道的 694 00:22:03,410 --> 00:22:05,089 2002到2009年 695 00:22:05,089 --> 00:22:07,250 所有报纸商业模式都很好 696 00:22:07,250 --> 00:22:07,829 我心想 697 00:22:07,829 --> 00:22:10,170 你在说什么呢 698 00:22:10,170 --> 00:22:15,549 你把报纸和这些顶尖CEO公司相比 699 00:22:15,549 --> 00:22:17,309 历史上见过的最伟大的 700 00:22:18,150 --> 00:22:20,589 拥有超高素质团队 701 00:22:20,589 --> 00:22:22,269 这简直荒谬 702 00:22:22,269 --> 00:22:24,430 但这就是我们现在的情况 703 00:22:24,430 --> 00:22:25,509 好吧 704 00:22:25,509 --> 00:22:26,009 是的 705 00:22:26,009 --> 00:22:26,670 Salesforce 706 00:22:26,670 --> 00:22:28,089 一张报纸表面 707 00:22:28,089 --> 00:22:28,890 现在是一张报纸 708 00:22:28,890 --> 00:22:29,890 Adobe是一张报纸 709 00:22:29,890 --> 00:22:30,109 比如 710 00:22:30,109 --> 00:22:31,390 这简直太扯了兄弟 711 00:22:31,390 --> 00:22:32,410 比如我们已经到了 712 00:22:32,410 --> 00:22:35,400 我们已经到了最荒谬的阶段 713 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:36,519 在这段话里我说过 714 00:22:36,519 --> 00:22:37,779 在最荒谬的阶段会发生什么 715 00:22:37,779 --> 00:22:41,138 这些公司的估值会达到最荒谬的水平 716 00:22:41,138 --> 00:22:43,219 你只是随意抛出一切 717 00:22:43,219 --> 00:22:44,159 而人们会说 718 00:22:44,159 --> 00:22:44,719 是的 719 00:22:44,719 --> 00:22:45,419 哦对啊 720 00:22:45,419 --> 00:22:46,298 然后是报纸 721 00:22:46,298 --> 00:22:47,160 对啊 722 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,250 嘿船长我 723 00:22:49,250 --> 00:22:52,309 所以市场存在长期真相与短期幻觉 724 00:22:52,309 --> 00:22:55,069 没错市场会经历不同阶段的 725 00:22:55,069 --> 00:22:56,390 短期焦虑 726 00:22:56,390 --> 00:22:58,240 巨大的短期焦虑 727 00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,180 市场会经历 728 00:22:59,180 --> 00:23:01,200 有时整个股市 729 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,380 有时特定行业 730 00:23:03,380 --> 00:23:04,400 特定产业 731 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,519 没错我们现在正处于这样的阶段 732 00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:10,670 作为个人投资者 733 00:23:10,670 --> 00:23:12,809 必须保持长期专注 734 00:23:12,809 --> 00:23:16,460 必须分析公司运营数据 735 00:23:16,460 --> 00:23:17,299 运行预测模型 736 00:23:17,299 --> 00:23:18,640 思考这些商业模式 737 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:19,960 进行SWOT分析 738 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,460 考虑优势机会 739 00:23:21,460 --> 00:23:22,779 劣势与威胁 740 00:23:22,779 --> 00:23:26,648 必须综合分析这些内容 741 00:23:26,648 --> 00:23:27,128 好的 742 00:23:27,128 --> 00:23:28,500 这说得通吗 743 00:23:28,500 --> 00:23:29,859 还是在胡闹 744 00:23:29,859 --> 00:23:32,220 我是否以极具吸引力的估值买入这只股票 745 00:23:32,220 --> 00:23:33,440 或者我错了 746 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,388 然后必须下注并说 747 00:23:37,388 --> 00:23:38,648 我这里牌型很好 748 00:23:38,648 --> 00:23:41,548 我喜欢学习如何玩扑克 749 00:23:41,548 --> 00:23:42,648 我住在拉斯维加斯 750 00:23:42,648 --> 00:23:46,839 多年前我就想学习如何高水平打牌 751 00:23:46,839 --> 00:23:47,759 我还是个废物 752 00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:48,240 对了 753 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:49,359 如果你擅长扑克的话，可以轻松拿走我的钱 754 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,200 如果你擅长扑克的话 755 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,380 所以你要知道 756 00:23:51,380 --> 00:23:56,039 但我发现其实我喜欢上课学习各种东西来尝试掌握 757 00:23:56,039 --> 00:23:57,059 比如如何玩扑克 758 00:23:57,059 --> 00:24:01,309 对了，你得在那里每天花十个小时 759 00:24:01,309 --> 00:24:02,470 不停地打牌 760 00:24:02,470 --> 00:24:04,289 才能真正精通这个游戏对吧 761 00:24:04,289 --> 00:24:05,490 这太耗时间了 762 00:24:05,490 --> 00:24:06,069 简直荒谬 763 00:24:06,069 --> 00:24:08,390 为了八百美元太疯狂了 764 00:24:08,390 --> 00:24:11,199 不过无论如何，我学会了在高水平上玩这个游戏 765 00:24:11,199 --> 00:24:13,259 在思维方式上 766 00:24:13,259 --> 00:24:14,759 归根结底 767 00:24:14,759 --> 00:24:15,930 兄弟 768 00:24:16,289 --> 00:24:17,869 你手里有强牌同花 769 00:24:17,869 --> 00:24:19,329 必须下注筹码 770 00:24:19,329 --> 00:24:20,470 你知道的，必须 771 00:24:20,470 --> 00:24:21,130 你可能 772 00:24:21,130 --> 00:24:21,730 你知道，说 773 00:24:21,730 --> 00:24:22,009 好吧 774 00:24:22,009 --> 00:24:22,980 这样对吗 775 00:24:22,980 --> 00:24:24,859 有个家伙打完他的手牌 776 00:24:24,859 --> 00:24:26,819 你知道我这里有个强同花 777 00:24:26,819 --> 00:24:28,220 会不会被其他牌击败 778 00:24:28,220 --> 00:24:28,539 可能会 779 00:24:28,539 --> 00:24:32,250 但被其他牌比如顺金或皇家同花击败合理吗 780 00:24:32,250 --> 00:24:32,730 比如 781 00:24:32,730 --> 00:24:33,150 应该不太可能 782 00:24:33,150 --> 00:24:35,369 你知道我打算继续 783 00:24:35,369 --> 00:24:35,950 你知道的 784 00:24:35,950 --> 00:24:37,599 要强势下注这手牌对吧 785 00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:39,160 有时候你会判断错误 786 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:44,909 然后即使你有超强手牌且正确出牌 787 00:24:44,909 --> 00:24:46,949 但最终还是输了 788 00:24:46,949 --> 00:24:48,868 然后必须接受这种风险 789 00:24:48,868 --> 00:24:53,259 这就是生意成本对吧，所以对于所有长期思考者 790 00:24:53,259 --> 00:24:54,500 长期思考者 791 00:24:54,500 --> 00:24:55,900 专注长期目标 792 00:24:55,900 --> 00:24:57,180 短期会怎样 793 00:24:57,180 --> 00:24:58,759 短期将是幻觉 794 00:24:58,759 --> 00:25:00,529 市场经常波动 795 00:25:00,529 --> 00:25:01,789 整个市场下跌 796 00:25:01,789 --> 00:25:02,769 整个行业下跌 797 00:25:02,769 --> 00:25:07,059 整个行业下跌对吧，然后月份流逝 798 00:25:07,059 --> 00:25:07,759 年份过去 799 00:25:07,759 --> 00:25:09,319 然后人们会意识到 800 00:25:09,319 --> 00:25:10,559 也许我们有点过激了 801 00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:10,799 这里 802 00:25:10,799 --> 00:25:11,880 也许我有点傻 803 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,429 没错，如果你是长期投资者 804 00:25:14,429 --> 00:25:16,729 并且净资产超过十万美元 805 00:25:16,729 --> 00:25:18,348 欢迎加入鼓预热小组 806 00:25:18,348 --> 00:25:21,339 这将是下方的置顶评论我们刚刚 807 00:25:21,339 --> 00:25:24,109 你知道那里有三千多名成员 808 00:25:24,109 --> 00:25:26,130 许多人都有六位数以上的资产 809 00:25:26,130 --> 00:25:28,829 七位数甚至八位数的投资者 810 00:25:28,829 --> 00:25:29,150 没错 811 00:25:29,150 --> 00:25:32,000 你将获得我的独家每周视频 812 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,539 访问所有课程教材 813 00:25:33,539 --> 00:25:34,500 所以你可以学习一切 814 00:25:34,500 --> 00:25:35,460 我上来后 815 00:25:35,460 --> 00:25:37,259 这样你就不会觉得在赌市场 816 00:25:37,259 --> 00:25:39,339 做决定时会更自信 817 00:25:39,339 --> 00:25:41,240 访问千倍股票网 818 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,599 所有优质内容都在置顶评论 819 00:25:43,599 --> 00:25:46,309 这能带你提升到更高层次 820 00:25:46,309 --> 00:25:47,650 接下来 821 00:25:47,650 --> 00:25:49,170 PayPal PayPal 822 00:25:49,170 --> 00:25:49,730 好的 823 00:25:49,730 --> 00:25:51,230 巨大潜力 824 00:25:51,230 --> 00:25:52,869 快速赚钱机会 825 00:25:52,869 --> 00:25:53,329 好的 826 00:25:53,329 --> 00:25:54,789 这里发生了什么 827 00:25:54,789 --> 00:25:55,069 嗯 828 00:25:55,069 --> 00:25:56,930 PayPal是今日标普 829 00:25:56,930 --> 00:25:58,539 五百股专家 830 00:25:58,539 --> 00:26:00,660 这可能是我第一次听到这个标题 831 00:26:00,660 --> 00:26:01,900 天啊因为这可不是玩笑 832 00:26:01,900 --> 00:26:03,930 作为PayPal今日的 833 00:26:03,930 --> 00:26:04,589 像 834 00:26:04,589 --> 00:26:05,769 我得再说一遍 835 00:26:05,769 --> 00:26:07,470 PayPal是今日的 836 00:26:07,470 --> 00:26:08,250 标普 837 00:26:08,250 --> 00:26:09,609 五百股 838 00:26:09,609 --> 00:26:11,170 天啊就像这样 839 00:26:11,170 --> 00:26:12,369 你可能再也听不到了 840 00:26:12,369 --> 00:26:13,349 天啊 841 00:26:13,349 --> 00:26:13,750 好的 842 00:26:13,750 --> 00:26:15,009 这里发生了什么嗯 843 00:26:15,009 --> 00:26:17,809 PayPal股价今日大幅上涨 844 00:26:17,809 --> 00:26:20,309 因收购兴趣 845 00:26:20,309 --> 00:26:21,750 至少一家大型 846 00:26:21,750 --> 00:26:25,710 至少一家大型竞争对手有意收购公司 847 00:26:25,710 --> 00:26:28,009 而其他公司对部分资产感兴趣 848 00:26:28,009 --> 00:26:29,019 彭博社报道 849 00:26:29,019 --> 00:26:30,779 知情人士透露 850 00:26:30,779 --> 00:26:31,380 好的 851 00:26:31,380 --> 00:26:33,140 这里存在一个潜在机会 852 00:26:33,140 --> 00:26:36,019 据报道PayPal正在关注 853 00:26:36,338 --> 00:26:37,058 我不想说 854 00:26:37,058 --> 00:26:37,778 PayPal正在关注 855 00:26:39,459 --> 00:26:44,789 有报道称PayPal正被接洽出售整个公司 856 00:26:44,789 --> 00:26:47,460 或者潜在出售 857 00:26:47,460 --> 00:26:49,759 出售公司内部某些资产比如 858 00:26:49,759 --> 00:26:51,000 也许这是切入点 859 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,279 也许是其他资产 860 00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:52,640 他们拥有 861 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:53,680 他们拥有大量其他资产 862 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:54,240 他们确实拥有 863 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:54,599 我们清楚 864 00:26:54,599 --> 00:26:57,319 PayPal和Venmo是公司的核心 865 00:26:57,319 --> 00:26:59,609 所以我能想象 866 00:26:59,609 --> 00:27:00,190 你知道的 867 00:27:00,190 --> 00:27:02,049 很多人对PayPal感兴趣 868 00:27:02,049 --> 00:27:03,130 你拥有极其 869 00:27:04,369 --> 00:27:07,068 你拥有当今世界最优秀商业模式之一 870 00:27:07,068 --> 00:27:08,088 就增长而言 871 00:27:08,088 --> 00:27:10,509 PayPal的增长率非常低 872 00:27:10,509 --> 00:27:16,509 但就绝对意义上的印钞机式业务而言 873 00:27:16,509 --> 00:27:20,210 你拥有两个被数亿人使用的优质服务 874 00:27:20,210 --> 00:27:22,638 在PayPal和Venmo之间 875 00:27:22,638 --> 00:27:24,298 你拥有Braintree业务板块 876 00:27:24,298 --> 00:27:26,878 这里的市盈率极低 877 00:27:26,878 --> 00:27:29,519 PayPal的前向市盈率约七倍 878 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,900 并且拥有非常强劲的资产负债表 879 00:27:31,900 --> 00:27:33,630 并且财务报表表现优异 880 00:27:33,630 --> 00:27:36,970 公司正在大量回购股份 881 00:27:36,970 --> 00:27:38,349 这简直是个印钞机 882 00:27:38,349 --> 00:27:42,000 因此我确实能看到很多人想收购PayPal 883 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,039 这家公司 884 00:27:43,039 --> 00:27:45,200 如果这次出售发生 885 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,279 我认为价格会是 886 00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:51,099 如果公司整体出售给他人 887 00:27:51,099 --> 00:27:53,519 无论收购方是谁 888 00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:57,378 我认为会以每股75到100美元成交 889 00:27:57,378 --> 00:27:58,259 当前股价 890 00:27:58,259 --> 00:27:59,679 即使今日大幅波动后仍为四 891 00:27:59,679 --> 00:28:01,309 每股四美元 892 00:28:01,309 --> 00:28:03,329 如果今年发生此事 893 00:28:03,329 --> 00:28:07,220 若传出PayPal将出售给某公司 894 00:28:07,220 --> 00:28:10,339 我认为会在当前价格区间内成交 895 00:28:10,339 --> 00:28:10,940 你可能会问 896 00:28:10,940 --> 00:28:12,480 为何之前不行动 897 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,880 因为此前PayPal股价约六十多 898 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,980 以75或100美元报价 899 00:28:18,980 --> 00:28:20,640 溢价并不大 900 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,119 股东现在大概率会接受 901 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,240 PayPal现在市值已经到了四十亿 902 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,039 如果你以七十五美元的报价进来 903 00:28:27,039 --> 00:28:27,880 八十美元的报价 904 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:28,940 八十五美元的报价 905 00:28:28,940 --> 00:28:30,240 突然股东们像射出子弹一样 906 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:31,240 这就像从这里翻倍上涨 907 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:31,599 你知道吗 908 00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:32,440 我们接受这个报价吧 909 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,380 我们现在就表决这个 910 00:28:34,380 --> 00:28:35,380 在这个特定价格下 911 00:28:35,380 --> 00:28:39,339 我认为PayPal的未来估值应在十一到十六之间 912 00:28:39,339 --> 00:28:41,799 我认为这是非常合理的估值 913 00:28:41,799 --> 00:28:43,539 考虑到PayPal的资产情况 914 00:28:43,539 --> 00:28:45,259 那么公共账户会怎样 915 00:28:45,259 --> 00:28:48,619 我的持仓价值可能在两百万到三百万之间 916 00:28:48,619 --> 00:28:50,819 五万到三百万美元 917 00:28:50,819 --> 00:28:51,180 现在 918 00:28:51,180 --> 00:28:53,460 一旦潜在收购发生 919 00:28:53,460 --> 00:28:55,140 股价将大幅上涨 920 00:28:55,140 --> 00:28:55,500 比如 921 00:28:55,500 --> 00:28:58,358 假设XYZ公司也宣布 922 00:28:58,358 --> 00:28:59,118 我不是指 923 00:28:59,118 --> 00:28:59,378 字面意思 924 00:28:59,378 --> 00:29:00,199 XYZ公司 925 00:29:00,199 --> 00:29:01,259 我只是指某家公司 926 00:29:01,259 --> 00:29:04,039 因为现在可能有一家叫XYZ的公司 927 00:29:04,039 --> 00:29:06,548 假设一家公司说 928 00:29:06,548 --> 00:29:06,868 好的 929 00:29:06,868 --> 00:29:07,709 我们收购PayPal 930 00:29:07,709 --> 00:29:09,108 每股七十七美元 931 00:29:09,108 --> 00:29:10,868 股价暴涨 932 00:29:10,868 --> 00:29:12,568 次日涨至七十七美元 933 00:29:12,568 --> 00:29:13,250 对吧 934 00:29:13,250 --> 00:29:13,930 我退出 935 00:29:13,930 --> 00:29:15,250 我走了 936 00:29:15,650 --> 00:29:16,609 我退出了宝贝 937 00:29:16,609 --> 00:29:17,910 这就是我的操作 938 00:29:17,910 --> 00:29:18,150 好的 939 00:29:18,150 --> 00:29:20,230 我不必担心剩下的七美元 940 00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:21,410 其他人可以操心这个 941 00:29:21,410 --> 00:29:23,650 我不必担心政府审查 942 00:29:23,650 --> 00:29:25,089 或者是否批准这个 943 00:29:25,089 --> 00:29:27,730 或者那些其他杂事 944 00:29:27,730 --> 00:29:29,410 他们也会发布公告 945 00:29:29,410 --> 00:29:30,390 每股八十五美元 946 00:29:30,390 --> 00:29:33,210 我们出售公司股价跌至七十五 947 00:29:33,210 --> 00:29:33,849 我参与了 948 00:29:33,849 --> 00:29:34,430 我退出 949 00:29:34,430 --> 00:29:35,109 我没事 950 00:29:35,109 --> 00:29:35,710 我没事 951 00:29:35,710 --> 00:29:35,990 好的 952 00:29:35,990 --> 00:29:37,230 我要把这笔钱转移到别处 953 00:29:37,230 --> 00:29:38,609 如果这种情况真的发生 954 00:29:38,609 --> 00:29:39,990 我认为这是否是现实可能性 955 00:29:39,990 --> 00:29:41,880 我认为这非常有可能发生 956 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,119 这也合乎逻辑 957 00:29:43,119 --> 00:29:45,420 我看到了首席执行官的薪酬方案 958 00:29:45,420 --> 00:29:48,440 如果深入研究首席执行官的薪酬方案 959 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,259 这也合乎逻辑的是 960 00:29:50,259 --> 00:29:53,079 而且他看起来像是那种 961 00:29:53,079 --> 00:29:55,980 你会放在那里尝试达成这笔交易的人 962 00:29:55,980 --> 00:29:57,079 就像我刚看了看 963 00:29:57,079 --> 00:30:00,650 我觉得他们可能会安排这样的CEO 964 00:30:00,650 --> 00:30:02,950 如果你打算出售公司内部资产 965 00:30:02,950 --> 00:30:04,670 或者整个公司都可能 966 00:30:04,670 --> 00:30:09,009 根据我阅读的薪酬方案来看 967 00:30:09,009 --> 00:30:09,630 说实话 968 00:30:09,630 --> 00:30:11,730 我认为他会受到强烈激励 969 00:30:11,730 --> 00:30:14,170 以每股八十美元出售这家公司 970 00:30:14,170 --> 00:30:18,559 或者说这只是基于我阅读的薪酬方案 971 00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,470 看起来他在这个市场有十七年经验 972 00:30:22,470 --> 00:30:24,650 看起来他会受到强烈激励 973 00:30:24,650 --> 00:30:26,609 尝试以每股八十美元出售公司 974 00:30:26,609 --> 00:30:27,769 或者说就是这样 975 00:30:27,769 --> 00:30:28,849 不能完全依赖这些事 976 00:30:28,849 --> 00:30:29,990 也许不会发生 977 00:30:29,990 --> 00:30:32,029 但我确实觉得这很有趣 978 00:30:32,029 --> 00:30:34,400 你注意到期权市场的变动了吗 979 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:34,640 比如 980 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,809 你得关注其他外部因素 981 00:30:36,809 --> 00:30:37,730 不仅仅是股价变动 982 00:30:37,730 --> 00:30:39,490 因为股价今天上涨了百分之五 983 00:30:39,490 --> 00:30:41,490 但期权市场发生了什么变化 984 00:30:41,490 --> 00:30:44,509 对吧，如果考虑买入结果 985 00:30:44,509 --> 00:30:49,109 收购公告可能在接下来三到五个月内公布 986 00:30:49,109 --> 00:30:51,019 如果真的发生的话 987 00:30:51,019 --> 00:30:54,279 但收购可能要到2026年底才能通过 988 00:30:54,279 --> 00:30:55,460 或者甚至2027年 989 00:30:55,460 --> 00:30:58,009 但我查看了一些看涨期权合约 990 00:30:58,009 --> 00:31:00,210 这些合约期限稍长 991 00:31:00,210 --> 00:31:02,410 这些是9月18日的看涨期权 992 00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:03,569 42.50价位 993 00:31:03,569 --> 00:31:04,089 这正是 994 00:31:04,089 --> 00:31:04,450 你知道的 995 00:31:04,450 --> 00:31:07,200 大致处于当前股价水平 996 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,299 你知道的 997 00:31:09,299 --> 00:31:09,880 你知道的 998 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,380 介于上周五收盘价 999 00:31:12,380 --> 00:31:13,359 和今日股价之间 1000 00:31:13,359 --> 00:31:13,700 周一 1001 00:31:13,700 --> 00:31:15,059 对，看看这个预 1002 00:31:15,059 --> 00:31:16,359 看看他们愿意支付多少 1003 00:31:16,359 --> 00:31:20,740 这里报价几乎上涨了三十个百分点，对吧，看看像六十二点五的 1004 00:31:20,740 --> 00:31:22,420 远低于执行价的六十点五 1005 00:31:22,420 --> 00:31:23,579 看看这些行权价 1006 00:31:23,579 --> 00:31:27,329 这些今天涨了三二和四一点，对吧 1007 00:31:27,329 --> 00:31:28,569 人们只会这样做 1008 00:31:28,569 --> 00:31:29,630 如果他们相当有信心的话 1009 00:31:29,630 --> 00:31:33,500 这里即将有收购消息，对吧，那里有情况发生 1010 00:31:33,500 --> 00:31:35,619 现在顺便看看这些 1011 00:31:35,619 --> 00:31:40,539 还有谁在给你看这些期权合约，展示这类信息，对吧 1012 00:31:40,539 --> 00:31:41,859 看看这个七月 1013 00:31:41,859 --> 00:31:44,079 十七二零二六正好 1014 00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:45,420 看看今天的部分走势 1015 00:31:45,420 --> 00:31:46,960 记住股票上涨了五个百分点 1016 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,579 看看这些走势 1017 00:31:49,579 --> 00:31:51,159 四五点的行权价 1018 00:31:51,159 --> 00:31:53,019 我们今天上涨了三十五个百分点 1019 00:31:53,019 --> 00:31:55,479 四七五的行权价上涨了三十六个百分点 1020 00:31:55,479 --> 00:31:59,339 五十美元的行权价上涨了四十七个百分点 1021 00:31:59,339 --> 00:32:00,880 今天几乎上涨了五十个百分点 1022 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:01,140 对啊 1023 00:32:01,140 --> 00:32:03,299 这是巨大的波动 1024 00:32:03,299 --> 00:32:04,819 看看五十二点五的 1025 00:32:04,819 --> 00:32:05,940 三十三个百分点的波动 1026 00:32:05,940 --> 00:32:09,099 五五点的今天上涨约三十个百分点 1027 00:32:09,869 --> 00:32:15,029 这是投资者认为基于ceo的薪酬方案 1028 00:32:15,029 --> 00:32:17,730 基于他们选择接任的人选 1029 00:32:17,730 --> 00:32:19,789 基于我们听到的传闻 1030 00:32:19,789 --> 00:32:22,659 并且基于有人收购paypal是合理的 1031 00:32:22,659 --> 00:32:23,239 他们 1032 00:32:23,239 --> 00:32:26,098 他们认为今年会有收购 1033 00:32:26,098 --> 00:32:28,598 只是何时宣布的问题 1034 00:32:28,598 --> 00:32:30,869 非常有趣 1035 00:32:30,869 --> 00:32:35,109 在期权市场看到这些变化非常有趣 1036 00:32:35,109 --> 00:32:36,349 以及整体股票情况 1037 00:32:36,349 --> 00:32:37,549 如果paypal被收购会惊讶吗 1038 00:32:37,549 --> 00:32:39,029 如果paypal今年被收购 1039 00:32:39,029 --> 00:32:39,829 完全不会 1040 00:32:39,829 --> 00:32:40,449 嗯 1041 00:32:40,449 --> 00:32:41,308 其实 1042 00:32:41,308 --> 00:32:42,489 你知道的是 1043 00:32:42,489 --> 00:32:43,489 如果没发生 1044 00:32:43,489 --> 00:32:44,969 不会对公司造成致命打击 1045 00:32:44,969 --> 00:32:46,308 公司仍是自动提款机 1046 00:32:46,308 --> 00:32:49,440 未来多年仍将保持这种状态 1047 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:50,400 所以是的 1048 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:51,819 增长乏力 1049 00:32:51,819 --> 00:32:55,650 顺便说我戴着红色千禧帽因市场行情 1050 00:32:55,650 --> 00:32:56,009 对 1051 00:32:56,009 --> 00:32:56,950 但人类 1052 00:32:56,950 --> 00:32:59,078 你们当然知道这就像一台印钞机 1053 00:32:59,078 --> 00:32:59,479 好的 1054 00:32:59,479 --> 00:33:02,558 这个市场是否会一路下跌到今年第四季度 1055 00:33:02,558 --> 00:33:03,269 嗯 1056 00:33:03,269 --> 00:33:04,269 这是有可能的 1057 00:33:04,269 --> 00:33:06,309 但我们真的需要更多黑天鹅事件 1058 00:33:06,309 --> 00:33:08,470 需要更多毫无征兆的黑天鹅事件 1059 00:33:08,470 --> 00:33:10,650 就像发生重大负面事件 1060 00:33:10,650 --> 00:33:12,949 重大负面事件真的会发生吗 1061 00:33:12,949 --> 00:33:15,028 因此我认为这不太现实 1062 00:33:15,028 --> 00:33:15,729 但并非不可能 1063 00:33:15,729 --> 00:33:16,949 但需要更多黑天鹅 1064 00:33:16,949 --> 00:33:19,130 需要下一个重大事件发生 1065 00:33:19,130 --> 00:33:19,609 就像 1066 00:33:19,609 --> 00:33:20,250 天啊 1067 00:33:20,250 --> 00:33:20,529 天哪 1068 00:33:20,529 --> 00:33:21,250 我们没料到会发生这个 1069 00:33:21,250 --> 00:33:22,410 然后又发生另一件大事 1070 00:33:22,410 --> 00:33:22,930 他们简直不敢相信 1071 00:33:22,930 --> 00:33:23,789 我们没料到会发生这个 1072 00:33:23,789 --> 00:33:26,430 要让市场真正下跌 1073 00:33:26,430 --> 00:33:27,910 一直持续到第四季度 1074 00:33:27,910 --> 00:33:29,190 因此我认为不太现实 1075 00:33:29,190 --> 00:33:30,009 原因在于 1076 00:33:30,009 --> 00:33:33,519 我认为SaaS将在未来30个交易日内见底 1077 00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:37,559 我认为SaaS是市场主导主题 1078 00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:42,009 我感觉市场缺乏信心 1079 00:33:42,009 --> 00:33:44,259 直到SaaS股票出现底部 1080 00:33:44,259 --> 00:33:46,500 直到SaaS板块出现底部 1081 00:33:46,500 --> 00:33:49,079 我觉得市场根本无法建立信心 1082 00:33:49,079 --> 00:33:51,519 人们只会质疑每一次反弹 1083 00:33:51,519 --> 00:33:53,009 他们将会相信 1084 00:33:54,619 --> 00:33:55,539 抛售 1085 00:33:55,539 --> 00:33:56,759 这就是会发生的情况 1086 00:33:56,759 --> 00:33:57,119 好的 1087 00:33:57,119 --> 00:33:59,680 我的观点是SaaS将在未来30个交易日内见底 1088 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,539 具体日期 1089 00:34:00,539 --> 00:34:01,099 我不确定 1090 00:34:01,099 --> 00:34:01,339 好的 1091 00:34:01,339 --> 00:34:03,180 今天就会发生吗 1092 00:34:03,180 --> 00:34:03,799 是明天吗 1093 00:34:03,799 --> 00:34:05,019 是下周还是下个月 1094 00:34:05,019 --> 00:34:05,619 我不知道 1095 00:34:05,619 --> 00:34:07,420 但我认为会在未来30个交易日内发生 1096 00:34:07,420 --> 00:34:08,320 当SaaS见底时 1097 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:09,219 现在好了 1098 00:34:09,219 --> 00:34:10,469 此外 1099 00:34:10,869 --> 00:34:11,730 情况是这样 1100 00:34:11,730 --> 00:34:16,760 我们已经在最大科技股中交易得非常吸引人 1101 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:17,980 所以如果你在考虑这个市场 1102 00:34:17,980 --> 00:34:19,599 直接暴跌到四季度 1103 00:34:19,599 --> 00:34:20,449 这很艰难 1104 00:34:20,449 --> 00:34:24,048 这就是为什么英伟达264P需要记住 1105 00:34:24,048 --> 00:34:25,929 英伟达全年大概率会超越预期 1106 00:34:25,929 --> 00:34:28,849 因此当前的前向市盈率可能在22或21左右 1107 00:34:28,849 --> 00:34:29,710 好的 1108 00:34:29,710 --> 00:34:31,769 这对英伟达来说非常低 1109 00:34:31,769 --> 00:34:34,210 英伟达的估值并没有疯狂高企 1110 00:34:34,210 --> 00:34:36,170 苹果的业绩是我们见过的最佳 1111 00:34:36,170 --> 00:34:37,659 可能自2021年以来 1112 00:34:37,659 --> 00:34:39,179 目前市盈率在34倍 1113 00:34:39,179 --> 00:34:41,619 并且是少数未受AI冲击的公司之一 1114 00:34:41,619 --> 00:34:45,719 所以苹果的股价并不疯狂 1115 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,929 微软的前向市盈率降至21 1116 00:34:47,929 --> 00:34:49,250 亚马逊跌至25倍 1117 00:34:49,250 --> 00:34:50,130 对于亚马逊而言 1118 00:34:50,130 --> 00:34:51,329 如果你了解亚马逊 1119 00:34:51,329 --> 00:34:52,898 这价格极其便宜 1120 00:34:52,898 --> 00:34:55,039 谷歌母公司市值约27倍 1121 00:34:55,039 --> 00:34:58,900 现在被视为最大的AI受益者 1122 00:34:58,900 --> 00:35:00,099 现在被视为芯片业务 1123 00:35:00,099 --> 00:35:01,920 未来几年业务可能繁荣 1124 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:06,130 加上Gemini和AI产品布局 1125 00:35:06,130 --> 00:35:07,960 因此谷歌市值27倍 1126 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,800 如果他们真的成为最大受益者 1127 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,199 作为最大的AI受益者之一 1128 00:35:12,199 --> 00:35:12,840 嗯 1129 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,369 也许这有点低估了 1130 00:35:15,369 --> 00:35:17,969 谷歌母公司当前市盈率24倍 1131 00:35:17,969 --> 00:35:19,570 P从32倍回落 1132 00:35:19,570 --> 00:35:21,650 他们显然业务增长迅猛 1133 00:35:21,650 --> 00:35:23,570 被视为最大受益者之一 1134 00:35:23,570 --> 00:35:25,639 32倍并不算贵 1135 00:35:25,639 --> 00:35:26,539 特斯拉太疯狂了 1136 00:35:26,539 --> 00:35:28,059 特斯拉股价201美元 1137 00:35:28,059 --> 00:35:29,380 但特斯拉就是特斯拉 1138 00:35:29,380 --> 00:35:29,659 像 1139 00:35:29,659 --> 00:35:30,880 你知道的 1140 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,219 就是这样 1141 00:35:32,219 --> 00:35:32,559 呃 1142 00:35:32,559 --> 00:35:34,260 伯克希尔哈撒韦22倍 1143 00:35:34,260 --> 00:35:39,420 这些科技股估值并不昂贵 1144 00:35:39,420 --> 00:35:41,179 因为股价大幅下跌 1145 00:35:41,179 --> 00:35:42,880 而盈利增长显著 1146 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:44,280 因此无法辩驳 1147 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:45,599 比如看微软 1148 00:35:45,599 --> 00:35:45,940 就说 1149 00:35:45,940 --> 00:35:46,920 21倍市盈率 1150 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:47,389 P 1151 00:35:47,389 --> 00:35:47,809 啊 1152 00:35:47,809 --> 00:35:48,789 这太疯狂了 1153 00:35:48,789 --> 00:35:50,329 比如你见过Azure的增长吗 1154 00:35:50,329 --> 00:35:51,909 Azure的增长接近百分之四十 1155 00:35:51,909 --> 00:35:53,070 如果我记得没错上个季度 1156 00:35:53,070 --> 00:35:53,349 没错 1157 00:35:53,349 --> 00:35:54,239 真是令人难以置信 1158 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:55,099 比如AWS 1159 00:35:55,099 --> 00:35:56,280 增长正在加速 1160 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:56,719 现在 1161 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,239 电商业务表现极其强劲 1162 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,539 所以亚马逊的股价两十五 1163 00:36:00,940 --> 00:36:02,119 这价位是二十 1164 00:36:02,119 --> 00:36:03,420 公司即将公布 1165 00:36:03,420 --> 00:36:05,340 预计下一季度营收增长三十 1166 00:36:05,340 --> 00:36:06,159 个百分点 1167 00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:06,940 在下一季度 1168 00:36:06,940 --> 00:36:08,260 他们即将公布 1169 00:36:08,260 --> 00:36:09,059 你听说了吗 1170 00:36:09,059 --> 00:36:10,019 我刚才说的 1171 00:36:10,019 --> 00:36:15,619 我刚才说Meta很可能下一季度营收增长超百分之三十 1172 00:36:15,619 --> 00:36:18,400 在发布财报时伴随福特 1173 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:19,920 股价二十 1174 00:36:21,079 --> 00:36:24,018 我知道会有巨额亏损和折旧 1175 00:36:24,018 --> 00:36:25,278 我反复讨论过这个 1176 00:36:25,278 --> 00:36:27,010 这可能成为阻碍 1177 00:36:27,010 --> 00:36:28,369 Meta未来几年的发展 1178 00:36:28,369 --> 00:36:31,170 这也是Meta股价难以大幅上涨的原因 1179 00:36:31,170 --> 00:36:33,670 除非人们开始按 1180 00:36:33,670 --> 00:36:34,269 你知道的 1181 00:36:34,269 --> 00:36:35,710 运营现金流来估值 1182 00:36:35,710 --> 00:36:36,550 但听着 1183 00:36:37,550 --> 00:36:38,369 很难 1184 00:36:38,369 --> 00:36:38,969 你知道的 1185 00:36:38,969 --> 00:36:41,550 微软股价能否达到十五四十倍市盈率 1186 00:36:41,550 --> 00:36:42,030 我说 1187 00:36:42,030 --> 00:36:45,599 亚马逊能否涨到十七四十倍市盈率 1188 00:36:45,599 --> 00:36:46,179 像这些 1189 00:36:46,179 --> 00:36:47,239 我说 1190 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,110 但这可能性很低 1191 00:36:50,110 --> 00:36:51,010 我们来做这个 1192 00:36:51,010 --> 00:36:52,269 这有点荒谬对吧 1193 00:36:52,269 --> 00:36:54,130 接下来可能发生的是 1194 00:36:54,130 --> 00:36:54,769 在我看来 1195 00:36:54,769 --> 00:36:55,269 好的 1196 00:36:55,269 --> 00:36:57,570 市场将在三十个交易日内见底 1197 00:36:57,570 --> 00:37:00,780 瑞斯设定底部 1198 00:37:00,780 --> 00:37:01,119 没错 1199 00:37:01,119 --> 00:37:02,420 SaaS设定底部 1200 00:37:02,420 --> 00:37:04,199 IV开始上涨 1201 00:37:04,199 --> 00:37:06,659 这种疯狂的持续抛售压力 1202 00:37:06,659 --> 00:37:09,568 这些股票似乎终于迎来了每日的终结 1203 00:37:09,568 --> 00:37:11,048 然后终于有人会说 1204 00:37:11,048 --> 00:37:11,909 你知道吗 1205 00:37:11,909 --> 00:37:13,268 我觉得这些股票已经见底了 1206 00:37:13,268 --> 00:37:14,668 然后开始竞相买入 1207 00:37:14,668 --> 00:37:18,889 因此市场在接下来的三十个交易日中确立底部 1208 00:37:18,889 --> 00:37:19,400 没错 1209 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,440 然后市场进入狂暴模式第二季度 1210 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:22,059 第三季度 1211 00:37:22,059 --> 00:37:24,239 假设Meta的财报远超预期 1212 00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,829 营收增长比预期更猛烈 1213 00:37:26,829 --> 00:37:30,050 假设AWS增长远超预期 1214 00:37:30,050 --> 00:37:30,710 好的 1215 00:37:30,710 --> 00:37:31,510 然后人们说 1216 00:37:31,510 --> 00:37:31,730 好吧 1217 00:37:31,730 --> 00:37:32,130 我们明白了 1218 00:37:32,130 --> 00:37:33,510 我们理解为何他们如此大手笔投入 1219 00:37:33,510 --> 00:37:34,449 增长速度简直疯狂 1220 00:37:34,449 --> 00:37:36,050 这些公司正在爆发式增长 1221 00:37:36,050 --> 00:37:37,909 市场开始极度兴奋 1222 00:37:37,909 --> 00:37:38,570 迅速地 1223 00:37:38,570 --> 00:37:42,070 突然这些股票的情绪在瞬间转变 1224 00:37:42,070 --> 00:37:43,349 而这一切发生了 1225 00:37:43,349 --> 00:37:44,150 快点啊 1226 00:37:44,150 --> 00:37:45,550 这不仅仅是情绪 1227 00:37:45,550 --> 00:37:47,889 看看这些科技股情绪转变有多快 1228 00:37:47,889 --> 00:37:50,690 从一切向上的狂热 1229 00:37:50,690 --> 00:37:52,460 到极度悲观 1230 00:37:52,500 --> 00:37:53,809 看看这些股票 1231 00:37:53,809 --> 00:37:56,829 一年前这些股票的情绪是多么高涨 1232 00:37:56,829 --> 00:37:58,210 看看转变有多快 1233 00:37:58,210 --> 00:38:00,409 现在这些股票的情绪多么悲观 1234 00:38:00,409 --> 00:38:01,730 如果你认为不会转向 1235 00:38:01,730 --> 00:38:05,730 当然会转向 所以市场在第二季度到第三季度进入狂暴模式 1236 00:38:05,730 --> 00:38:07,909 第三季度末到第四季度 1237 00:38:07,909 --> 00:38:10,489 我们迎来新的戏剧性事件 关于比特币 1238 00:38:10,489 --> 00:38:13,039 涉及选举和相关事件 1239 00:38:13,039 --> 00:38:13,699 围绕 1240 00:38:13,699 --> 00:38:14,460 哦这些公司 1241 00:38:14,460 --> 00:38:14,760 是的 1242 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,460 科技巨头增长远超预期 1243 00:38:16,460 --> 00:38:17,599 但他们的估值如何 1244 00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:18,880 这将是2027年 1245 00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,159 或许会大幅上调 1246 00:38:21,159 --> 00:38:22,139 围绕这一的担忧 1247 00:38:22,139 --> 00:38:24,619 我们可能迎来年末的戏剧性事件 1248 00:38:24,619 --> 00:38:28,679 但此时已出现另一轮大幅上涨 1249 00:38:28,679 --> 00:38:31,619 最终结果可能相互抵消 1250 00:38:31,619 --> 00:38:33,789 没错 这就是我们所处的阶段 1251 00:38:33,789 --> 00:38:35,028 在这里要着眼长期 1252 00:38:35,028 --> 00:38:37,628 让市场在短期内自行波动，不必惊慌 1253 00:38:37,628 --> 00:38:39,708 你知道一切都在变好或变坏 1254 00:38:39,708 --> 00:38:41,219 所有这些都会自然运作 1255 00:38:41,219 --> 00:38:43,230 你只需保持长期专注 1256 00:38:43,230 --> 00:38:43,789 你知道的 1257 00:38:43,789 --> 00:38:44,730 买入优质公司 1258 00:38:44,730 --> 00:38:47,150 持续增加收入超过支出 1259 00:38:47,150 --> 00:38:48,610 专注于你能掌控的事 1260 00:38:48,610 --> 00:38:49,949 控制你能控制的部分 1261 00:38:49,949 --> 00:38:53,369 你知道Salesforce股票何时见底，下周或下月 1262 00:38:53,369 --> 00:38:54,710 你无法控制这一点对吧 1263 00:38:54,710 --> 00:38:58,760 但如果你认为这是未来六到九个月的投资良机 1264 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,380 你知道六到九个月的时间 1265 00:39:00,380 --> 00:39:03,730 你可以抓住这个机会对吧，如果觉得不 1266 00:39:03,730 --> 00:39:04,630 这不是机会 1267 00:39:04,630 --> 00:39:06,050 而是价值陷阱或其他情况 1268 00:39:06,050 --> 00:39:07,610 那就无需投资 1269 00:39:07,610 --> 00:39:08,610 可以寻找其他机会 1270 00:39:08,610 --> 00:39:10,070 市场上有数千只股票 1271 00:39:10,070 --> 00:39:10,519 没错 1272 00:39:10,519 --> 00:39:11,860 这就是它的美妙之处 1273 00:39:11,860 --> 00:39:12,199 好的 1274 00:39:12,199 --> 00:39:13,599 感谢你一如既往的参与 1275 00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:14,519 非常感谢你的到来 1276 00:39:14,519 --> 00:39:16,099 如果你想加入私人股票小组 1277 00:39:16,099 --> 00:39:16,760 私人财富小组 1278 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,440 访问thousandx.com获取访问权限 1279 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:19,679 我的私人Discord聊天室 1280 00:39:19,679 --> 00:39:20,619 独家每周视频 1281 00:39:20,619 --> 00:39:21,280 所有优质内容 1282 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:22,519 我即将录制私人小组 1283 00:39:22,519 --> 00:39:24,289 一段优质教学视频 1284 00:39:24,289 --> 00:39:24,730 嗯 1285 00:39:24,730 --> 00:39:25,590 稍后在这里 1286 00:39:25,590 --> 00:39:28,150 这将是下方置顶评论 1287 00:39:28,150 --> 00:39:28,409 现在 1288 00:39:28,409 --> 00:39:28,829 请记住 1289 00:39:28,829 --> 00:39:31,110 如果你净资产不足十万 1290 00:39:31,110 --> 00:39:32,590 随时欢迎申请 1291 00:39:32,590 --> 00:39:34,309 你可能不是最佳人选 1292 00:39:34,309 --> 00:39:35,030 但你 1293 00:39:35,030 --> 00:39:36,230 随时欢迎申请 1294 00:39:36,230 --> 00:39:38,110 如果你净资产不足十万 1295 00:39:38,110 --> 00:39:38,469 好的 1296 00:39:38,469 --> 00:39:39,880 祝好，祝你度过美好一天
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