现在都只是开胃菜！NaNa说美股(2026.05.19)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月19号周二

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尽管美国副总统万斯今天下午表

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使美国与伊朗的谈判中取得进展

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而且双方都不希望恢复军事行动

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但市场呢对此半信半疑

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美股三大股指仍集体收跌

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投资者等待中东局势的进一步明朗

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并且权衡美债收益率走势

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看今天这个盘面情况哈

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资金很明显流入能源与医药等防御板块避险

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30年期美债收益率

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今天盘中一度飙升到5.198%存霞

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2007年以来最高水平

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地缘政治与货币政策的负反馈循环呢正在加剧

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合力推高了市场的风险溢价

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川普今天表示

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如果无法达成协议

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美国可能会在未来几天内

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嗯就是本周末或者下周初对伊朗再次发动攻击

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此外他还坦言

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地缘冲突带来的通胀飙升

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让降息前景高度复杂化

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战争结束之前无法评估核心数据

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同时呢

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他还承认

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与他同样倾向于宽松政策

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但现实也不得不妥协于油价冲击

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可能需要等到与伊朗的战争结束之后

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才能够进一步推动降息

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川普的这一番言论

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标志着他对降期的坚持有所缓和

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哈也打碎了市场对年内降息的希望

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没有了白宫的政治施压

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面对严重偏离目标的通胀数据

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市场担忧的已不再是何时降息了

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而是会不会加息

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何时加息

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今天欧阳涵已经放话说了

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如果伊朗战争局面没有改善的话

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预计将会在6月份加息

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花旗表示

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交易员已经将30年期美债收益率的

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下一个关键整数位锁定在5.5%

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核心通胀没有见到明显的降温

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美国经济依然彰显任性

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这意味着美联储短期内难以降息

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投资者正重新评估持有长期美债的性价比

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要求更高的期限溢价回报

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这个washer呢主持的首次利率会议

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将会在6月中旬举行哈

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市场此前期待VERSI带来更快的降息

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但是由于当下这个长端利率通胀预期大幅上行

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江西路境远没有市场之前想的那么顺利

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他若在这时候贸然的释放宽松信号

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非但无法安抚在世

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进而损害美联储的独立性与政策可信度

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这可能反而嗯

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会导致债市索要更高的通胀风险补偿

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就继续推高这个长端美债收益率

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所以现在波舍还没有上任呢

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市场已经提前对他的政策独立性

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展开压力测试了

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所以这一轮美债收益率上行哈

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并非是由单一事件驱动的

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而是债市呢对过去一段时间

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风险资产过度乐观的一次剧烈校正

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比特币价格持续走低

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再次跌破了8万美元关口

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前一阵子市场风险偏好火热

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叠加那个clarity法案

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通过杠杆与空头回补呢

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共同推动了比特币价格持续走高

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但实际现货需求并不强

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但是有很多币圈分析师高喊比特币牛市重启

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结果现在一个个的全都蔫了

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还不吭声了

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除了美债收益率走高的原因

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还有比特币最坚定的那一帮信徒

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韩国欧巴们如今都不完毕了

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因为韩国股市现在涨跌比山寨币还更刺激嘛

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三星电子

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SK海力士等AI题材股表现亮眼

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这导致大量资金呢从币圈中撤出

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转投股市

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导致比特币被冷落

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美股市场这边正在进行

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高贝塔资产的去杠杆进程

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目前为止哈

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市场并没有出现恐慌性的无差别抛售行为

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利润兑现压力主要集中在前期涨幅最陡峭

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拥挤度最高的科技股与半导体产业链

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比如AI硬件办这个芯片

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光模块存储等等

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日K售出一根阳线十字星

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这个很明显

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多头单边上攻的噶空呢已经被打断了

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结束呃

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美债收益率走高

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让科技股估值承压

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暂时企业盈利仍能够拖住指数

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短期内AI硬件进入震荡消化

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但是他的这个中期多头结构

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还没有遭到根本性的破坏

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700整数关口是短期支撑

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如果失守呢

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将会进一步试探月均线的支撑力度

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如果破了这个月均线哈

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那CCTA的抛售力度就会一下子加强

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标普500指数同步跌破了10日均线

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在下跌过程中呢

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还是展现了这个一定的买盘承接意愿的嗯

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本周两个关键变量

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一个是周三盘获得优达财报

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第二个呢是这个周末哈

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中东那边会不会开打

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这两件事将会直接决定这一轮上涨趋势

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还能不能够延续

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这张图表

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展示标普500指数的12个月

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隐含相关性的历史走势

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时间跨度从2016年

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一直延伸到2026年中

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就今年年终

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现在简单来说

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这个指标衡量的是市场预期

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标普白指数成分股之间

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未来12个月同涨同跌的紧密程度

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高相关性呢趋近呃

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这五十百%分之65

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低相关性趋近二十百%分之25

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这张图表里最高值为67%

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对应的是2020年流动性危机

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当时美股市场无差别暴跌哈

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就连续几天熔断嗯

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而眼下呢是处于最低值约23%

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这表明美股市场

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目前处于一个极端的抱团与分化状态

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这印证了为什么近期大盘指数看起来

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波动并没有那么失控

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因为资金高度集中在少数

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大是指科技股和AI产业链中嗯

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科技股狂飙的同时

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大量其他板块个股在阴跌

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两者的对冲压低了整体的相关性

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从历史图形来看

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每当这个隐含相关性

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跌到25%以下的极端区间

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比如2017年底

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2019年底

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还有2024年底

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往往意味着市场的结构性炒作呢

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已经到了非常拥挤的这个阶段

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这么低的相关性是不可持续的

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结合近期美债收益率破五

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和这个中东局势的这个呃僵持哈

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一旦市场遭遇估值去杠杆的话

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那这个指标通常就会从底部急剧反弹

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这意味着市场可能会从当前板块轮动

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个股分化转向全面下行

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或者是系统性的重新定价

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简单说大白话就是指数未来几天或者几周内呢

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会出现一个剧烈下跌或者急剧飙升的局面哈

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整个市场齐涨或者是急跌

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而不再是风化

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这就需要一个爆炸性的利好或者是利空

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来引发这种局面

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而目前波动率指数VIX还没有显现出这种风险

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它还在这个20下方徘徊

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今天是VX5月合约的结算日

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做13呢

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在重新构建下个月新对冲头寸的时候呃

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往往会系统性的在现货市场削减高贝塔动量股

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比如科技半导体等等

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他们的仓位哈

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所以这两天特别是今天早盘

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由于这对冲盘撤离

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我们就看到一批动量股持续下跌

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到了中午之后才开始重新拉起来

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风险定价自我校正

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现在市场的交易重心呢

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已经全面切换到6月组合约了哈

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嗯从最新的报价来看

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6月VIX期货合约已经明显升水

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站稳在20.38附近呃

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所谓的深水就是这个远期比近期更贵

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这说明大盘中期繁育成本在上升

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市场呢已经开始为6月中旬

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沃er主持的首次美联储利率会议定价

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资金在今天结算之后

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没有选择重新做空波动率

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就这压住VX下跌

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反而是直接买入6月VX做反手

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这意味着未来一个月

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美股市场的整体波动率

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中枢呢将会被系统性的抬高

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酒市场的波动会变大

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所以哈这里嗯总结来说

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我并非是单方面的看空或者单方面看多

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因为他这个风险呢是两面的

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暴跌或者是暴涨

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所以无论多空哈

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都要这个保持战术性的谨慎

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个股方面

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谷歌股价高位整理

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公司今天举行年度开发者大会

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密集发布AI更新

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从这mini模型

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搜索引擎到油管呃

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乃至其他的那些生态

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几乎所有核心产品线都被重新嵌入

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生成式AI能力

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但是股价反应平淡嗯

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还有根据这个华尔街日报报道

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00:09:40,259 --> 00:09:43,539
谷歌与黑石计划联合成立一家

217
00:09:43,539 --> 00:09:45,379
新型AI云计算公司

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00:09:45,379 --> 00:09:48,000
黑石呢出资50亿美元股权资本

219
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,500
并且控股联合杠杆融资之后

220
00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,940
总规模可能高达250亿美元

221
00:09:52,940 --> 00:09:56,980
谷歌呢负责提供专用TPU芯片软件以及服务

222
00:09:56,980 --> 00:10:00,970
目标是在2027年交付500兆瓦算力嗯

223
00:10:00,970 --> 00:10:03,769
这个黑心的割韭菜机构

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00:10:06,049 --> 00:10:10,320
称这笔交易对以出租芯片算力为单一模式的

225
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,519
那些第三方云服务商

226
00:10:12,519 --> 00:10:15,429
比如COVIVE等会构成压力呃

227
00:10:15,429 --> 00:10:17,590
会压制这些新兴嗯

228
00:10:17,590 --> 00:10:20,720
算力服务商的定价能力和利润率

229
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,759
所以呢IRENMBISCOVIVE

230
00:10:23,759 --> 00:10:25,610
今天全都应声下跌

231
00:10:25,610 --> 00:10:28,269
COA的股价盘中一度跌超8%

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随后回升

233
00:10:29,470 --> 00:10:31,068
收窄了日内跌幅

234
00:10:31,068 --> 00:10:32,548
自5月高点以来

235
00:10:32,548 --> 00:10:33,908
股价持续下行

236
00:10:33,908 --> 00:10:36,149
已经累计回撤了约30%

237
00:10:36,149 --> 00:10:39,549
这是一个非常好的倒车接日的机会哈

238
00:10:39,549 --> 00:10:41,110
嗯还有IRE呢

239
00:10:41,110 --> 00:10:42,549
50美元以下呢

240
00:10:42,549 --> 00:10:45,049
其实都是可以低吸的机会

241
00:10:45,049 --> 00:10:47,009
当然不是说一次性买完

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00:10:47,009 --> 00:10:48,000
分批买

243
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,519
英伟达股价近日也高位回落

244
00:10:50,519 --> 00:10:53,639
技术面仍维持均线多头排列

245
00:10:53,639 --> 00:10:56,240
底下埃塞指标也没有显示过热

246
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,159
在二百十八美元附近呢

247
00:10:58,159 --> 00:11:00,580
展现出了左侧买盘动向

248
00:11:00,580 --> 00:11:04,129
但是在230美元上方受到卖方压制

249
00:11:04,129 --> 00:11:08,289
因为达当前正处于业绩前的典型震荡行情中

250
00:11:08,289 --> 00:11:11,059
作为全球AI的总龙头

251
00:11:11,059 --> 00:11:14,360
他的财报意义早已经超越他自己公司

252
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:15,659
这个个股层面啊

253
00:11:15,659 --> 00:11:19,210
是整个美股AI牛市的系统风向标

254
00:11:19,210 --> 00:11:22,009
全市场资金都在屏息等待

255
00:11:22,009 --> 00:11:24,029
它的财报以及未来指引

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00:11:24,029 --> 00:11:26,070
如果财报引发回撤的话

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00:11:26,070 --> 00:11:28,570
那月均线将会是第一反

258
00:11:28,570 --> 00:11:31,309
现如果股价季后大涨呢

259
00:11:31,309 --> 00:11:34,710
那有望突破散发235美元高点

260
00:11:34,710 --> 00:11:37,779
并且开启新一轮的右侧拉升啊

261
00:11:37,779 --> 00:11:40,259
我们都知道英伟达过去几次财报

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00:11:40,259 --> 00:11:41,940
每次都是超预期的哈

263
00:11:41,940 --> 00:11:43,019
包括止盈也一样

264
00:11:43,019 --> 00:11:46,519
都是超过最高的这个乐观的预期

265
00:11:46,519 --> 00:11:49,460
但是呢股价的反应走势

266
00:11:49,460 --> 00:11:53,100
那就完全是脱离财报的

267
00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:55,639
所以是涨是跌还是横盘

268
00:11:55,639 --> 00:11:58,139
完全只有华尔街说了算哈

269
00:11:58,139 --> 00:12:00,850
我觉得根本没法去赌软件板块

270
00:12:00,850 --> 00:12:02,769
IGB连续数日上涨之后

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00:12:02,769 --> 00:12:03,549
今天高开

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00:12:03,549 --> 00:12:06,590
触及到了上方这个缺口阻力后回落转跌

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00:12:06,590 --> 00:12:08,019
短线获利盘兑现

274
00:12:08,019 --> 00:12:10,779
盘前美银高调唱多ServiceNow

275
00:12:10,779 --> 00:12:12,240
对该股恢复覆盖

276
00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,789
并且给予买入品级以及130美元目标价

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00:12:15,789 --> 00:12:19,909
坚信呃该股是AI商业化的绝对受益者

278
00:12:19,909 --> 00:12:21,309
而并非是受害者

279
00:12:21,309 --> 00:12:23,230
预测公司2028年

280
00:12:23,230 --> 00:12:24,830
营收增速将会维持在

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00:12:24,830 --> 00:12:26,549
18%到22%

282
00:12:26,549 --> 00:12:27,429
自有现金流

283
00:12:27,429 --> 00:12:30,590
利润率呢高达35%到37%

284
00:12:30,590 --> 00:12:31,909
受此消息刺激

285
00:12:31,909 --> 00:12:34,509
所遇到股价今跌盘出的时候

286
00:12:34,509 --> 00:12:36,350
还一度暴涨超7%

287
00:12:36,350 --> 00:12:38,269
但随后就开始跳水了

288
00:12:38,269 --> 00:12:39,629
从日线走势来看

289
00:12:39,629 --> 00:12:41,919
股价目前嗯虽然回落

290
00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:45,220
但仍处于5日均线这条进攻线上方

291
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:47,659
反弹的行情呢还没有遭到破坏

292
00:12:47,659 --> 00:12:48,919
如果真的跌破了

293
00:12:48,919 --> 00:12:52,110
那就得走SAAP股价日内走势雷同

294
00:12:52,110 --> 00:12:53,110
高开低走

295
00:12:53,110 --> 00:12:54,490
其他股票其实也都一样

296
00:12:54,490 --> 00:12:54,970
想了想啊

297
00:12:54,970 --> 00:12:57,200
pro win今天全部都是哈

298
00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:02,200
公司宣布与英伟达共同开发代理式AI基础设施

299
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,659
并且呢深度嵌入它的商业软件平台

300
00:13:05,659 --> 00:13:09,980
同时双方工程师协同设计开源项目open shell

301
00:13:09,980 --> 00:13:13,340
在应用端软件整体承压的背景之下

302
00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:17,539
sap可能是希望通过与英伟达的深度绑定

303
00:13:17,539 --> 00:13:21,519
和AI agent这一个具象化来落地场景

304
00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:25,149
给自己就披上一层这个AI外套嘛

305
00:13:25,149 --> 00:13:27,578
来重新赢得资金的青睐

306
00:13:27,578 --> 00:13:29,839
行今天我们就简单的说到这里吧

307
00:13:29,839 --> 00:13:33,298
真正的这个重头戏还是看明天盘后

308
00:13:33,298 --> 00:13:34,539
英伟达财报哈

309
00:13:34,539 --> 00:13:37,039
嗯还有这个周末风险也不小

310
00:13:37,039 --> 00:13:40,379
所以我觉得的当下资金出现一些谨慎观望

311
00:13:40,379 --> 00:13:41,620
景需也不奇怪

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00:13:41,620 --> 00:13:43,139
反正要么天堂

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要么地狱了

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那我们明天见拜拜

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