【Daniel Pronk】奈飞暴跌45%，已不再是成长股？

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它从历史最高点下跌了四分之五，又回到了低点

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这正是在华纳兄弟纠纷期间创下的低点

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很多人一直在向我询问对Netflix的看法

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我认为目前这只股票看起来被低估了

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在今天的视频中我们将讨论Netflix股票

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首先我们来谈谈股票下跌的原因

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直接切入主题

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先是失去了收购华纳兄弟的机会，现在又失去收购Roku的机会

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还传出他们正在考虑收购狮门影业

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但目前尚未得到证实

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这只是猜测

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有消息人士称Netflix在寻求收购狮门影业

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不过

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但尚未有官方宣布

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而Netflix再次在Roku收购中输给福克斯

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因为福克斯愿意支付更高价格

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最终Roku管理层选择了福克斯的收购

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这就像Netflix在华纳兄弟收购中失利的情况

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在华纳兄弟收购案中

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因为价格过高

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所以Netflix决定放弃

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如果狮门影业收购传闻属实

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这将是Netflix的第三次大规模收购尝试

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在过去一年内

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我认为他们确实在认真考虑进行大规模收购

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然后他们会竞购多家公司

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现在空头正将这些收购行动

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解读为Netflix需要收购来维持业务增长

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认为其现有业务已难以持续增长

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因此核心问题在于Netflix是否需要通过收购来推动业务增长

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在我看来

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Netflix愿意放弃这些收购

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表明他们并不真正需要这些来维持增长

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而公司本身可能并无大碍

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想想看

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如果他们真的需要这些业务来持续成功和增长

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应该会不断加价直至完成收购

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并竭尽全力达成交易

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但Netflix因价格过高放弃收购

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这显示他们并不急于求成

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当前业务无需这些资产支撑

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此外收购在特定情况下确实合理

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若两家公司存在显著协同效应

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例如

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若Netflix成功收购华纳兄弟

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将获得《权力的游戏》等资源

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这只是其中一个例子

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但他们会获得

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你知道拥有大量不同的知识产权

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但他们本可以接触到《权力的游戏》

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然后他们能够利用自己的工作室

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制作更多《权力的游戏》相关内容

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作为消费者

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我绝对会喜欢这个

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因为我热爱《权力的游戏》

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《龙之家族》目前正在播出

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顺便说下最后一集太疯狂了

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我迫不及待想看下一集

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但我不想跑题太多

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这确实是一集很好的剧集

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但我想说的是对公司而言

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收购另一家企业其实可行

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如果存在协同效应

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合并后的公司会比各自更强

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我认为这对奈飞确实成立

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尤其是派拉蒙公司

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因此我不认为这次收购反映

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奈飞需要华纳兄弟才能成功

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这只会带来更多增长机会

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战略选择性和加速有机增长潜力

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因为他们能解锁大量优质内容

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进而生成更多内容

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所以我对奈飞必须通过收购增长的观点

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认为并不合理

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现在让我们看看奈飞上季度财报

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了解其业务实际表现

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第一季度数据显示奈飞营收增长14%

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按固定汇率计算

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预计今年营收达510亿美元

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运营利润率31.5%

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意味着利润率将同比扩张

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他们的用户参与度指标创历史新高

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用户与奈飞内容互动更频繁

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他们还宣布收购一家生成式AI公司

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以提供创作者和制作团队

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生成式AI工具提升内容效率

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广告收入预计今年达30亿美元

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同比翻倍增长

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然而

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他们也指出处于高度竞争动态环境

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竞争非常激烈

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继续阅读Q1报告

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这里展示了第二季度预测表

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第二季度2026年预测

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预计第二季度营收增长率为13.5%

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相比去年15.9%的增长

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预计第二季度营收增速放缓

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相比去年同期

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第二季度的营业利润率预计也将达到三

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同比增长2.6% 对比去年的4.1%

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因此第二季度的营业利润率预计会更低

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这是因为Netflix预计在第二季度有大量内容摊销费用

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在第二季度

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对于剩余年度

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摊销率应会降低

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这意味着下半年利润率应会更高

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最终再次

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他们仍预期全年利润率为3.1%

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5%的利润率

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但继续来看

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他们预计第二季度每股收益为78美分

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对比去年的72美分

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每股收益同比仅增长6%

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这主要由于我们之前提到的内容摊销费用

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特别是在第二季度

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因此2026年下半年的每股收益增长率应大幅提高

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在我看来

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我最关注的问题是全年

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同比增长率预计在下一季度达到13.5%

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相比去年第二季度出现明显放缓

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以及今年第一季度

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在财报中继续分析

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Netflix表示第一季度每股收益强劲

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主要得益于华纳兄弟分手费

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显著提升了当季现金流和收益

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但显然这是一次性事件，未来

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Netflix全年不会有如此高的收益

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Netflix预计收入将增长11%至13%

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按常规货币计算

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看来他们预期收入增速将持续放缓

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剩余年度

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这是我最想强调的

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这并不一定是坏事

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但业务似乎趋于成熟

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增速开始放缓

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下一张截图显示

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过去12个月Netflix收入增长16.7%

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然而

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全年来看

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分析师预计收入增长13.75%

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5%

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明年预计进一步放缓至11.7%

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随后在2028年进一步降至10.3%增长

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由此可见

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甚至

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分析师预计

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Netflix的收入增速将持续放缓多年

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再次强调

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我认为

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这表明Netflix的业务开始走向成熟

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所以回答问题

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Netflix是否需要收购来继续增长

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我认为显而易见的答案是否定的

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我认为这是一个相当大胆的观点

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现实是Netflix很可能继续有机增长

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但其增长速度明显在放缓

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未来几年预计增速将持续下降

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现在看起来更像是一个成熟的企业

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这并不一定是坏事

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我是说

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Netflix很可能每年都能继续提价

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消费者也会继续支付不断上涨的价格

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他们可能仍能以个位数增长整体订阅用户

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如果他们能实现个位数的用户增长

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同时每年以5%到10%的幅度持续提价

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这可能导致高个位数至低两位数的营收增长

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在可预见的未来

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这其实不算糟糕的前景

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那么问题来了为什么我不买入Netflix股票

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在回答这个问题之前

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我有一个来自今日视频赞助商的简讯

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Moo Moo近日与Stock Unlock达成合作

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我认为这两个平台完美契合

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我仍使用Stock Unlock进行深度基本面分析

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估值工作

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和跟踪我的投资组合

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但当你真正决定调整投资组合时

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Moo是用于买卖的APP

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在我完成Stock Unlock的基础研究后

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通常会查看Moo的AI市场摘要

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它提供每日和每周的快速摘要

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关于这只股票的情况

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包括关键事件

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异常交易活动

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市场情绪和重要新闻更新

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还有看涨和看跌情绪追踪器

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可快速了解市场对股票的态度

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我还喜欢华尔街日报等主要来源的新闻

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杂志

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这能节省数百美元订阅费用

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同时将所有内容集中管理

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令人兴奋的是

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前20名点击下方链接并存入一千美元的人

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将获得Stock Unlock一年免费服务

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这意味着你可以免费研究和交易股票

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此外新加拿大用户

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可领取高达30股的惊人赠股

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存入一万美元加元即可获得十只免费股票

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或存入八千加元可获得总计三十只免费股票

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这些奖励包括英伟达等市场龙头股

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还有特斯拉和微软的股票

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所以如果你对获得一年免收斯德哥尔摩锁费用感兴趣

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同时获取妈妈的不同奖励

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请点击下方链接注册并感谢赞助

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为今日视频赞助的妈妈

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好的现在

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让我们回到视频

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我将解释为何不买入奈飞股票

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其实归根结底是相信奈飞所处行业竞争激烈

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我认为竞争对手表现更优且

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这家公司正走向成熟阶段

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当我进行奈飞的DCF分析时

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我认为回报率尚可

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但并非顶尖

215
00:10:12,940 --> 00:10:16,759
因此奈飞可能目前处于公允价值附近

216
00:10:16,759 --> 00:10:19,139
但考虑到市场上许多其他股票

217
00:10:19,139 --> 00:10:20,139
如亚马逊

218
00:10:20,139 --> 00:10:20,720
Meta

219
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:21,460
微软

220
00:10:21,460 --> 00:10:22,080
布鲁克菲尔德

221
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:22,820
资产管理

222
00:10:22,820 --> 00:10:24,090
Mercado Libre

223
00:10:24,090 --> 00:10:28,009
我认为这些股票在此处更具价值

224
00:10:28,009 --> 00:10:30,830
且业务增长更快

225
00:10:30,830 --> 00:10:34,289
我也认为这些企业护城河更宽

226
00:10:34,289 --> 00:10:37,139
它们所处的竞争环境远不如奈飞激烈

227
00:10:37,139 --> 00:10:38,759
归根结底

228
00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:40,340
总结来说

229
00:10:40,340 --> 00:10:45,620
我认为存在护城河更广的企业能提供更高的未来回报潜力

230
00:10:45,620 --> 00:10:47,059
相比奈飞

231
00:10:47,059 --> 00:10:51,139
奈飞并非市场中最具吸引力的股票

232
00:10:51,139 --> 00:10:52,580
至少在我的观点中

233
00:10:52,580 --> 00:10:55,419
我有一些数据想分享以支持我的观点

234
00:10:55,419 --> 00:10:57,399
正如我昨天所说

235
00:10:57,399 --> 00:11:00,840
Meta宣布推出Instagram电视版

236
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,970
用户可直接从手机投屏短视频到电视

237
00:11:04,970 --> 00:11:07,769
同时正在尝试横屏视频

238
00:11:07,769 --> 00:11:12,190
因此你可以在电视上观看专属的Instagram内容

239
00:11:12,190 --> 00:11:13,460
直接在电视上

240
00:11:13,460 --> 00:11:19,220
Meta还在开发长视频创作者内容和剧集

241
00:11:19,220 --> 00:11:23,919
这将与YouTube和奈飞争夺电视观看时间

242
00:11:23,919 --> 00:11:29,308
看来流媒体环境正变得越来越竞争激烈

243
00:11:29,308 --> 00:11:30,229
除此之外

244
00:11:30,229 --> 00:11:31,989
2025年1月

245
00:11:31,989 --> 00:11:35,250
奈飞流媒体市场份额为8.6%

246
00:11:35,250 --> 00:11:37,169
2026年1月

247
00:11:37,169 --> 00:11:41,509
其市场份额增长0.2%至8.8%

248
00:11:41,509 --> 00:11:43,740
然而在2025年1月

249
00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:46,320
YouTube的市场份额达到10.8%

250
00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,000
而在2026年1月

251
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,389
增长1.7%至12.5%

252
00:11:51,389 --> 00:11:57,029
亚马逊也增长0.4%至4.1%的流媒体市场份额

253
00:11:57,029 --> 00:12:01,009
YouTube在过去一年持续表现强劲

254
00:12:01,009 --> 00:12:02,590
相对于Netflix

255
00:12:02,590 --> 00:12:04,269
看来YouTube和亚马逊

256
00:12:04,269 --> 00:12:07,580
但主要是YouTube在攫取更多流媒体市场份额

257
00:12:07,580 --> 00:12:11,879
Netflix并未显著增加市场份额

258
00:12:11,879 --> 00:12:16,559
然而整个流媒体市场仍在快速增长

259
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,639
流媒体电视观看时长增长4%

260
00:12:19,639 --> 00:12:22,200
仅一年时间就增长4.4%

261
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,419
这对流媒体市场来说是巨大增长

262
00:12:25,419 --> 00:12:29,240
整体市场快速扩张，Netflix同步增长

263
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,639
但未大幅增加份额

264
00:12:31,639 --> 00:12:33,828
而竞争对手正在获得更多份额

265
00:12:33,828 --> 00:12:36,769
这可能表明竞争对手表现更优

266
00:12:36,769 --> 00:12:37,469
总结起来

267
00:12:37,469 --> 00:12:37,808
简而言之

268
00:12:37,808 --> 00:12:40,960
流媒体市场绝对规模仍在持续增长

269
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,818
Netflix的市场份额同比略有上升

270
00:12:44,818 --> 00:12:49,049
他们在2025年12月创下最佳表现

271
00:12:49,049 --> 00:12:54,389
但Netflix的流媒体份额基本持平甚至缓慢下降

272
00:12:54,389 --> 00:12:55,419
视月份而定

273
00:12:55,419 --> 00:13:01,318
大部分增长流向YouTube及其他快速服务如Toby和Roku

274
00:13:01,318 --> 00:13:02,399
简而言之

275
00:13:02,399 --> 00:13:04,678
Netflix正在成为成熟

276
00:13:04,678 --> 00:13:08,110
盈利但增长放缓的业务

277
00:13:08,110 --> 00:13:11,490
现在让我们快速进行Netflix的DCF测算

278
00:13:11,490 --> 00:13:11,909
并且

279
00:13:11,909 --> 00:13:14,190
我认为EBIT是最适合

280
00:13:14,190 --> 00:13:16,139
用于Netflix的DCF分析的指标

281
00:13:16,139 --> 00:13:22,679
因其历史表现最为稳定的盈利能力指标

282
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:24,200
当我进行DCF分析时

283
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,659
喜欢找到最稳定的指标并以此为基础

284
00:13:27,659 --> 00:13:29,980
让我们预测Netflix未来三年

285
00:13:29,980 --> 00:13:33,870
预计EBIT年增长约12%

286
00:13:33,870 --> 00:13:37,929
与分析师预期的营收增长率相当

287
00:13:37,929 --> 00:13:39,720
实际上略高

288
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:40,080
因此

289
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,320
这表明EBITDA利润率将提升

290
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:43,759
未来三年持续增长

291
00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:47,240
假设Netflix当前市盈率约为10倍EBITDA

292
00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,289
观察Netflix的历史市盈率

293
00:13:50,289 --> 00:13:53,950
长期平均约为12.66倍

294
00:13:53,950 --> 00:13:55,759
这是其历史中位数

295
00:13:55,759 --> 00:13:56,340
然而

296
00:13:56,340 --> 00:14:01,289
Netflix业务增速明显放缓

297
00:14:01,289 --> 00:14:05,929
因此应反映为更低的整体估值倍数

298
00:14:05,929 --> 00:14:09,789
我认为以十倍EBIT的市盈率对Netflix更为合理

299
00:14:09,789 --> 00:14:14,960
以十倍EBIT市盈率和未来三年十二%的年EBIT增长率

300
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,059
我们得到每股约十三%的复合年增长率

301
00:14:19,059 --> 00:14:21,820
合理估值约为每股七十九美元

302
00:14:21,820 --> 00:14:24,589
未来股价可能达到约一百零五美元

303
00:14:24,589 --> 00:14:28,730
我认为这个DCF模型并不太不现实

304
00:14:28,730 --> 00:14:31,230
我再说十二%的年增长率

305
00:14:31,230 --> 00:14:34,159
这与分析师未来几年的预期相符

306
00:14:34,159 --> 00:14:35,600
在我看来

307
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:36,919
在十倍EBIT市盈率下

308
00:14:36,919 --> 00:14:41,710
我认为这相当合理，基于Netflix历史估值

309
00:14:41,710 --> 00:14:45,289
考虑到其增速正在明显放缓

310
00:14:45,289 --> 00:14:47,190
再次通过这个DCF模型

311
00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:49,549
我们得到约十三%的复合年增长率

312
00:14:49,549 --> 00:14:52,470
这并非我所得到的增长水平

313
00:14:52,470 --> 00:14:55,309
当我为Meta和亚马逊做DCF分析时

314
00:14:55,309 --> 00:14:58,450
我认为这些企业护城河更宽

315
00:14:58,450 --> 00:15:00,070
业务更多元化

316
00:15:00,070 --> 00:15:03,490
我认为它们能更快增长

317
00:15:03,490 --> 00:15:05,529
所以当我比较今天的Netflix

318
00:15:05,529 --> 00:15:07,129
与Meta或亚马逊

319
00:15:07,129 --> 00:15:10,169
我认为后者的股票更具吸引力

320
00:15:10,169 --> 00:15:13,308
这也是我不在此买入Netflix的原因

321
00:15:13,308 --> 00:15:14,308
在我看来

322
00:15:14,308 --> 00:15:15,948
围绕收购的炒作

323
00:15:15,948 --> 00:15:20,078
Netflix需要收购才能持续增长的论点

324
00:15:20,078 --> 00:15:24,179
以及其收购竞标显示业务陷入困境的事实

325
00:15:24,179 --> 00:15:26,080
并不真正站得住脚

326
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,429
因为Netflix核心业务仍保持双位数增长

327
00:15:30,429 --> 00:15:31,809
看起来很强劲

328
00:15:31,809 --> 00:15:32,509
状态健康

329
00:15:32,509 --> 00:15:34,190
他们仍在推出爆款内容

330
00:15:34,190 --> 00:15:37,950
分析师也预期其将持续有机增长

331
00:15:37,950 --> 00:15:39,440
保持双位数增速

332
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,720
广告业务正在崛起

333
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:45,409
尽管仍是整体业务的小部分

334
00:15:45,409 --> 00:15:50,190
但该收入以一百%增速增长不会持续

335
00:15:50,190 --> 00:15:54,750
但这是高毛利收入，能提升利润率

336
00:15:54,750 --> 00:15:56,529
同时也能提升营收

337
00:15:56,529 --> 00:15:58,730
随着广告业务持续扩张

338
00:15:58,730 --> 00:15:59,909
简而言之

339
00:15:59,909 --> 00:16:01,750
在我看来

340
00:16:01,750 --> 00:16:04,450
Netflix无需收购即可持续增长

341
00:16:04,450 --> 00:16:06,330
核心问题在于

342
00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:07,250
我认为Netflix

343
00:16:07,250 --> 00:16:07,950
正如我之前所说

344
00:16:07,950 --> 00:16:11,370
在本视频中一直在阐述，正成为更成熟的业务

345
00:16:11,370 --> 00:16:16,719
未来很可能以低双位数或高个位数增速增长

346
00:16:16,719 --> 00:16:17,318
正如我说的

347
00:16:17,318 --> 00:16:20,090
这绝非什么坏事

348
00:16:20,090 --> 00:16:21,330
实际上这是一个非常好的事情

349
00:16:21,330 --> 00:16:27,210
因为这显然是一个主导家庭品牌的强势国际品牌

350
00:16:27,210 --> 00:16:29,250
归根结底在于

351
00:16:29,250 --> 00:16:32,610
我认为Netflix目前实际上交易在合理公允价值附近

352
00:16:32,610 --> 00:16:35,490
考虑到其增长速度正在放缓

353
00:16:35,490 --> 00:16:37,220
业务已进入成熟阶段

354
00:16:37,220 --> 00:16:41,659
我不认为它应该维持历史相同的市盈率或溢价

355
00:16:41,659 --> 00:16:43,379
以及它历史上交易过的溢价

356
00:16:43,379 --> 00:16:46,919
当我调整价格倍数以反映这一点时

357
00:16:46,919 --> 00:16:51,220
看起来它正在交易接近公允价值，没有严重折价

358
00:16:51,220 --> 00:16:53,960
相对于市场其他股票而言

359
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,039
正如我之前所说

360
00:16:55,039 --> 00:16:58,340
我不认为Netflix一定是市场中最便宜的股票

361
00:16:58,340 --> 00:17:00,940
或当前最佳投资机会

362
00:17:00,940 --> 00:17:04,059
我知道股价较历史高点下跌了四到五成

363
00:17:04,059 --> 00:17:08,890
但这并不意味着股价必然便宜

364
00:17:08,890 --> 00:17:09,910
实际上这意味着

365
00:17:09,910 --> 00:17:14,440
至少在我看来，Netflix在历史高点时非常昂贵

366
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,599
事实上，从2022年低点到峰值的大部分涨幅

367
00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:22,089
我认为2025年的上涨主要来自估值扩张

368
00:17:22,089 --> 00:17:25,319
股价不断被推高至更高价位

369
00:17:25,319 --> 00:17:28,180
最终达到非常昂贵的水平

370
00:17:28,180 --> 00:17:30,339
而现在这一情况已基本修正

371
00:17:30,339 --> 00:17:33,839
将Netflix带回我认为的合理价格

372
00:17:33,839 --> 00:17:36,559
所以我对每只股票的建议是

373
00:17:36,559 --> 00:17:39,900
不要仅看股价较历史高点的跌幅

374
00:17:39,900 --> 00:17:41,859
就立即认为必须买入

375
00:17:41,859 --> 00:17:42,970
或认为它必然便宜

376
00:17:42,970 --> 00:17:45,410
仅仅因为下跌了四到五成

377
00:17:45,410 --> 00:17:48,710
估值分析远比这复杂

378
00:17:48,710 --> 00:17:49,730
并非简单

379
00:17:49,730 --> 00:17:50,170
你知道的

380
00:17:50,170 --> 00:17:54,710
通过历史高点与当前价格对比得出结论

381
00:17:54,710 --> 00:17:56,549
需要做更深入的分析

382
00:17:56,549 --> 00:17:58,029
思考实际回报率

383
00:17:58,029 --> 00:17:59,910
企业应适用的合理市盈率

384
00:17:59,910 --> 00:18:01,000
其增长速度

385
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:02,240
以及更多因素

386
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:03,440
远不止这些

387
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:04,579
这就是我的建议

388
00:18:04,579 --> 00:18:07,569
因为我看到很多X平台和社交媒体帖子

389
00:18:07,569 --> 00:18:10,390
称Netflix现在必买

390
00:18:10,390 --> 00:18:13,259
仅仅因为下跌了四到五成

391
00:18:13,259 --> 00:18:14,380
我持不同意见

392
00:18:14,380 --> 00:18:17,640
我认为它过去昂贵，现在提供更合理估值

393
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,440
但我觉得自己开始啰嗦了

394
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,150
所以视频到此结束

395
00:18:21,150 --> 00:18:22,390
如果你喜欢这个视频

396
00:18:22,390 --> 00:18:23,990
请记得点赞

397
00:18:23,990 --> 00:18:26,269
如果你想继续观看更多类似内容

398
00:18:26,269 --> 00:18:28,109
你还没有订阅这个频道

399
00:18:28,109 --> 00:18:31,690
请务必订阅以观看更多类似视频最后

400
00:18:31,690 --> 00:18:34,440
如果你有其他想让我立即分析的股票

401
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,759
请在评论区留言

402
00:18:36,759 --> 00:18:39,839
我会查看因为我在制作更多这类视频

403
00:18:39,839 --> 00:18:43,009
我会专门制作视频并分享我的观点

404
00:18:43,009 --> 00:18:44,710
我可能得做关于Adobe的视频了

405
00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:47,480
因为我最近收到很多关于Adobe的评论

406
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:48,640
不过话说回来

407
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:49,259
一如既往

408
00:18:49,259 --> 00:18:50,740
非常感谢你的观看

409
00:18:50,740 --> 00:18:52,240
我真的很感激

410
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,500
希望下次视频再见

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