【NaNa说美股】20260306咋了，伊朗反攻华盛顿了？？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月6号周五

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美股已经收市了

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由于最新公布的非农就业和消费数据爆冷

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同时原油价格大涨和中东局势不确定性

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市场短期风险偏好明显下降

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深南股指全天低开低走

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最终集体收跌

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首先我们来看宏观数据

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美国2月非农就业人口减少9.2万人

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而市场预期为增加5.5万人

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前值为12.6万人

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美国2月失业率呢小幅上升到4.4%

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高于预期和前者4.3%

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贸易政策

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人工智能移民

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劳动力供应以及地缘政治因素不确定性

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都在一定程度上抑制了企业的招聘意愿

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冬季风暴也对就业增长造成了影响

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美国劳动力市场仍保持低招聘

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低解雇的状态

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与此同时

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消费数据也略显疲软

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美国1月零售销售环比下降0.2%

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为去年10月以来首次出现负增长

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主要受汽车经销商销售疲软所拖累

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冬季天气也对消费活动产生了一定的影响

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大家都不愿意出门嘛

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虽然数据不算特别糟糕哈

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但是消费支出持续疲软

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对美国经济构成威胁

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不过呢经济学家普遍预计

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今年较高的退税规模

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有望在今年上半年对消费支出形成提振

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所以这个短期的消费疲软

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未必意味着趋势性的下滑

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这些数据公布之后

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美债收益率与股指期货同步

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盘前短线走低

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现货黄金呢短线拉升

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这反映出市场在迅速消化一个新的宏观预期

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就是美国经济增长动能可能正在放缓

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货币政策未来呢可能趋向更宽松

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交易员认为

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美联储6月加息的可能性大约为30%

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7.6

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高宇数据公布前的30%

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不过现在的形势不明朗啊

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需要看到连续两份疲软的就业报告

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才会采取行动

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高盛预计

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美联储最终呢还是会在年内

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完成剩余的两次正常化降息

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实利率回归到中性水平

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股指期货盘前同步走低

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说明市场在短期内

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更关注经济放缓带来的盈利风险

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理论上降息预期升温对股市是利好是吧

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呃但是在数据刚公布的第一反应阶段呢

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交易员往往先交易增长

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担忧这个逻辑

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如果就业和消费同时出现走弱的迹象

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那意味着企业盈利前景也可能会被下休

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所以呢

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股指期货会先出现一波风险回避式的下跌

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这也是今天市场整体情绪偏弱的重要原因之一

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另外能源市场的波动

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也进一步的压制了风险情绪

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WTI原油价格近两年来首次突破每桶90美元

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整数心理关口

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本周累涨35%

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创下自1983年有期货交易记录以来的

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最大单周涨幅

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媒体报道

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伊朗呢

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再次袭击了一艘位于科威特附近的美国邮轮

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华尔街日报报道称

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科威特因原有存储空间不够而削减了石油产量

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卡塔尔能源部长

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今天在接受英国金融时报采访的时候

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警告称

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如果未来嗯几周

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这个邮轮仍无法通过霍尔木兹海峡的话

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那油价可能冲向每桶100美元以上

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川普在冲突初期哈仍表示

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愿意通过谈判达成协议

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但是现在的他的态度明显变得更加强硬了

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今年他发帖称

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不会与伊朗通过谈判结束战争

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除非伊朗无条件投降

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否则呢不会与伊朗达成任何协议

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这一番表态就明显释放出一种打持久战的信号

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白宫发言人也再次重申

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目前对伊朗的军事行动

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可能需要4~6周时间完成

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就川普一直刚开始就说过嘛

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需要四周的时间

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只不过市场呢啊因为这个媒体消息

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那个小道消息一会儿就又塌扣

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一会儿又希望呃速斩速决是吧

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我倒是觉得并不是川普在变来变去

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而是嗯这个媒体消息啊

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就放各种烟雾弹嗯

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伊朗方面呢则回应称

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已经为长期冲突做好了准备

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并且正在研发新的武器系统

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随着双方表态不断的升级

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市场开始真正担心这个局势是否会进一步扩大

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与此同时

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一些媒体报道也在不断的放大这种担忧

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据CNN报道

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美国情报部门认为

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中国可能正在准备向伊朗提供资金援助

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零部件以及导弹相关部件

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还有媒体援引多位美国情报人士称

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俄罗斯正在向俄伊朗提供有关美国嗯

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舰艇和飞机位置的情报

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包括卫星图像

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但这些消息到底有多少真实性

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现在还很难判断哈

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很多时候

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媒体呢在地缘政治报道上就很容易捕风捉影

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放大冲突气氛

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唯恐天下不乱

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其实这些媒体都是有他们各自立场的

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从现实角度来看

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如果川普计划在4月份访问中国

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这个时间点哈

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双方不太可能把事情升级到完全撕破脸的程度

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市场里面呢我们也可以看到一些相反的信号

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比如今天波音股价上涨约4%

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据彭博社报道

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中国方面正在考虑与波音达成一笔规模

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高达500架737max飞机的大订单

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同时双方还在讨论

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涉及大约100架

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787梦想客机

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和777X宽体客机的采购协议

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很多时候在中美或者是中欧领导人会面之前

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都会出现类似的大型航空订单

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用来释放一些缓和的信号

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就会牵成一笔空客大订单

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而美国高层访问的时候呢

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波音订单就会成为一个重要的外交象征

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无奈波音自己不争气啊

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满手的订单

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但是生产和质量问题经常出状况

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这也让市场对它的执行能力始终有些担忧呃

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我们回到市场本身哈

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从技术结构来看

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标普500指数

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今天盘中再次在6700点附近获得支撑

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6700这一带呢已经逐渐成为近期的关键区域

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今天的回落在一定程度上释放了部分恐慌情绪

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市场正在消化坏消息

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但是整体资金并没有出现全面撤离的迹象

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更多还是在博弈

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如果这个周末周中东那边没有出现新的升级

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下周初开市

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指数呢仍有机会重新测试6800附近嗯

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今天另一个非常值得关注的信号

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来自波动率市场哈

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VX收在29附近

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接近30了

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就是可以收出一根明显的大肠阳

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说明市场情绪非常的紧张

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担心这个周末出幺蛾子

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害怕下周一跳空风险

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所以呢通过嗯期权来卖保险对冲仓位

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推动VX全天持续上升

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VIX飙的这么高

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去年11月份

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标普500指数跌到6500点附近的时候呃

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weeks当时就只拉升到二十五二十八的水平哈

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而现在VX都快接近30了

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而指数还处于6700点上方呢

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这说明很多机构资金正在提前买入保护

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如果这个周末中东局势没有进一步升级

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下周初开市呢

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机构就会解除部分嗯对冲头寸

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mix重新回落到25以下

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那么市场就会出现一波技术性反弹

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但如果这个周末出大事

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下周美股开市

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VX直接暴冲到35以上

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那也不是什么坏事了

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按照历史经验哈

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这反而是行情逆转的预兆

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恐慌释放之后

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市场往往会在当天或者在一周内

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就出现短期底部哈

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所以大家不要担心

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这个周末

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无论发生什么事情

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陨石炸掉华尔街啦

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伊朗反攻华盛顿啦

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都不用理会

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只要最近有认真做好仓位管理

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这些波动其实都是可以承受的

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个股方面

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迈威尔科技股价财报后跳空高开

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大涨超18%

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一举收复了年初以来的所有跌幅

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公司Q4财报超预期

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营收22.2亿美元

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创历史新高

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同比增长22%

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略高于市场预期的22.1亿美元

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调整后每股收益为80美分

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同样略好于预期的79美分

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盈利能力更是明显改善

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gap盈利利润达到了4.04亿美元

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同比大增72%

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净利润大约3.96亿美元

216
00:09:36,789 --> 00:09:39,000
同比增长接近98%

217
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,519
管理层给出的2027财年Q1营收指引

218
00:09:45,519 --> 00:09:47,578
终值大于24亿美元

219
00:09:47,578 --> 00:09:50,839
明显高于市场预期的22.7亿美元

220
00:09:50,839 --> 00:09:53,779
随着AI算力需求持续爆发

221
00:09:53,779 --> 00:09:58,299
嗯定制芯片产业链正在进入高速增长阶段

222
00:09:58,299 --> 00:10:02,370
博通以及迈威尔科技这些定制芯片龙头

223
00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:06,399
仍有望延续类似英伟达式的强净增长

224
00:10:06,399 --> 00:10:09,120
MACD0轴下方呢发生了金叉哈

225
00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:10,720
而且柱状图转正

226
00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,710
这是较强的动能反转买入信号

227
00:10:13,710 --> 00:10:17,990
今天留下的跳空缺口具有强烈的技术支撑意义

228
00:10:17,990 --> 00:10:21,570
只要后面股价在95美元附近回调

229
00:10:21,570 --> 00:10:23,490
不跌破88美元

230
00:10:23,490 --> 00:10:25,570
那就有回补上方缺口

231
00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:29,100
并且呢冲击一百十美元的潜力

232
00:10:29,100 --> 00:10:29,700
回调

233
00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:32,139
若是跌破84.5美元哈

234
00:10:32,139 --> 00:10:34,340
那就意味着反弹动力衰竭了

235
00:10:34,340 --> 00:10:39,940
底下呢成交量嗯比此前日均水平急剧放大

236
00:10:39,940 --> 00:10:41,450
这种级别的放量

237
00:10:41,450 --> 00:10:45,370
意味着大资金在财报后重新入场抢筹了

238
00:10:45,370 --> 00:10:48,279
现在是买方完全主导市场

239
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:50,440
甲骨文今天尾盘前一小时

240
00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:51,720
股价突然跳水

241
00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,000
据彭博报道

242
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,019
甲骨文与open恩爱因为融资谈判受阻

243
00:10:56,019 --> 00:10:58,700
open爱需求变动等各种原因

244
00:10:58,700 --> 00:11:00,440
取消了扩建

245
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,759
德州阿比林AI数据中心的计划

246
00:11:03,759 --> 00:11:07,899
这个数据中心属于STARGETS项目的德州旗舰站点

247
00:11:07,899 --> 00:11:09,620
由小到向西说啊

248
00:11:09,620 --> 00:11:11,519
双方其实存在一些矛盾哈

249
00:11:11,519 --> 00:11:12,690
并不怎么愉快

250
00:11:12,690 --> 00:11:14,230
谈判破裂之后呢

251
00:11:14,230 --> 00:11:17,120
据称meta考虑接受英伟达

252
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,200
支付了1.5亿美元定金

253
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:20,919
并且协助牵线

254
00:11:20,919 --> 00:11:25,980
以确保这个嗯数据中心采用英伟达自己的芯片

255
00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:27,889
而并非AAMD的芯片

256
00:11:27,889 --> 00:11:30,850
当市场的注意力大多集中在

257
00:11:30,850 --> 00:11:33,190
宏观数据和中东局势的时候

258
00:11:33,190 --> 00:11:36,480
信贷市场又出现了一些新的压力

259
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,419
美国私募信贷巨头布鲁奥capital

260
00:11:39,419 --> 00:11:41,039
近期呢股价跌跌不休

261
00:11:41,039 --> 00:11:42,240
软件股都反弹了

262
00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:43,840
它还在继续下跌

263
00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:44,759
俗话说

264
00:11:44,759 --> 00:11:46,080
破鼓万人锤

265
00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,139
今天又传来一则坏消息

266
00:11:48,139 --> 00:11:49,159
就是布鲁奥

267
00:11:49,159 --> 00:11:53,359
对总部位于伦敦的一家房地产贷款机构

268
00:11:53,359 --> 00:11:55,719
哈存在3600万英镑

269
00:11:55,719 --> 00:11:58,279
大约4800万美元的风险敞口

270
00:11:58,279 --> 00:11:59,720
而这家公司三个月呢

271
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,679
已经申请进入破产管理程序了

272
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,230
就这个笔钱可能会打水漂

273
00:12:05,230 --> 00:12:08,070
同时投资者赎回压力也在增加

274
00:12:08,070 --> 00:12:11,950
哈布鲁奥此前已经限制了部分基金赎回

275
00:12:11,950 --> 00:12:14,720
但是呢这反而加大了大家的恐慌

276
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,340
全球最大资管机构black cook

277
00:12:17,340 --> 00:12:19,460
在遭遇大规模资金外流后

278
00:12:19,460 --> 00:12:23,200
也对旗下部分私募信贷基金限制赎回

279
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,870
原因同样使客户赎回生起明显上升

280
00:12:26,870 --> 00:12:29,350
今天布拉沃克股价的大幅下跌

281
00:12:29,350 --> 00:12:33,568
也反映出市场对信贷风险的敏感度正在提升

282
00:12:33,568 --> 00:12:36,448
散户投资者焦虑情绪蔓延

283
00:12:36,448 --> 00:12:40,259
迫使市场呢采取流动性限制措施

284
00:12:40,259 --> 00:12:44,340
并且可能导致信贷敏感领域的强制抛售

285
00:12:44,340 --> 00:12:45,820
或者资产出售

286
00:12:45,820 --> 00:12:46,799
整体来看

287
00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:49,899
这个市场短期波动还会比较剧烈

288
00:12:49,899 --> 00:12:51,799
从指数结构来看呢

289
00:12:51,799 --> 00:12:54,080
资金并没有出现全面撤退哈

290
00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:59,259
更多还是在不断的调整仓位和降低风险敞口

291
00:12:59,259 --> 00:13:03,779
如果嗯油价下周能够持稳或者回落

292
00:13:03,779 --> 00:13:07,599
那么市场仍然有机会出现技术性反弹

293
00:13:07,599 --> 00:13:10,178
但若是油价进一步飙升

294
00:13:10,178 --> 00:13:12,639
那么接下来美股可能还会经历一段

295
00:13:12,639 --> 00:13:14,549
更剧烈的震荡阶段

296
00:13:14,549 --> 00:13:17,070
OK那我们就说到这里

297
00:13:17,070 --> 00:13:19,029
祝大家这个周末好好休息

298
00:13:19,029 --> 00:13:20,559
我们下次见拜拜

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