【Seeking Alpha】量化策略解析：5只具备“轧空”潜力的顶尖AI股票

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嘿

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大家好，我是来自Seeking Alpha的丹尼尔·辛德勒

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非常感谢大家今天抽空和我们共度时光

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我看到现场有数百人参与

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我们很感激大家的到来并与我和史蒂夫交流

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今天我们将深入探讨

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具有逼空潜力的AI概念股

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具体从一个角度切入

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我知道如果你们长期参与这些网络研讨会

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当我们介绍股票名称时

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大家总是喜欢提问

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向史蒂夫询问空头持仓情况

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这次内容专门针对你们

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我们非常兴奋

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我们将涵盖全球宏观经济动态

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相信大家对此已有了解

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但先做个简要回顾

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然后深入这些标的

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但在开始之前

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请先听一段法律免责声明

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先处理完这个

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我们不会就任何证券的性质

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潜在

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价值或适配性向您提供建议

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您需自行判断

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任何投资

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证券策略或产品服务是否适合您

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需基于您的投资目标及个人财务状况

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本演示仅供信息参考

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内容仅反映发布或标注日期的信息

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可能被后续事件取代

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仅代表我与史蒂文·克雷斯的观点

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可能不反映Seeking Alpha整体立场

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过往业绩不预示未来结果，Seeking Alpha

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并非持牌证券经纪

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经纪人

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美国投资顾问或投行

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处理完免责声明后

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现在回到史蒂夫

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我和史蒂夫组成黄金搭档

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很高兴今天能与大家共聚

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接下来我们简要介绍背景

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让我们进入市场动态分析

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完全正确

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是的

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天啊

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我在金融行业已有相当经验

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超过三十年

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职业生涯曾在摩根士丹利

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负责量化策略的自营交易台

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我也曾担任北方信托国际部负责人

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全球投资

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我还创立了一家量化策略对冲基金

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以及一家金融科技公司

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这公司用更贴切的描述

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有点像股票筛选的机器人分析师

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比如那家公司

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他们收购了它

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这就是今天让我站在这里的原因

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嗯

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我最喜欢的课题之一是

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买入有逼空潜力的股票

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所以啊

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今天我们将重点讲解这些内容

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嗯

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我也会谈谈空头持仓的影响

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特别是当空头持仓量很高时

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我发现市场对其有强烈买入意愿

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我知道该公司基本面非常扎实

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通常拥有优秀的资产负债表

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现金流量表

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损益表及我们关注的财务指标

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今天我们将首先讲解这些内容

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尽管市场非常疯狂

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波动性持续增加

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我们稍后会分析这些情况

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可以说市场展现出一定的韧性

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考虑到地缘政治冲击

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但可能感受不到

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因为许多股票大幅下跌

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但整体来看标普500指数

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今年迄今仅下跌1%

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尽管地缘政治紧张局势

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推动了市场波动

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但近期财报表现稳健

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经济保持增长

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通胀有所降温

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但油价从80美元飙升至120美元

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回落至略低于100美元

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嗯

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我们需要观察通胀前景

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目前存在诸多不确定性

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预测难度较大

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但通胀确实在放缓

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去年下半年已实施三次降息

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并非针对通胀

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更多是劳动力市场担忧

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但劳动力市场也有所缓和

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标普500指数在二月收盘时

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仅下跌不到1%

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关税政策

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显然我们现在面临伊朗战争

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能源与国防股大幅上涨

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并成为去年的最大赢家

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今年

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它们一直引领市场

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这甚至在伊朗危机之前

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但如今美以行动已全面展开

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能源股和油价飙升至历史新高

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如今供应链因冲突受阻

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俗话说

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历史不会简单重复

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但它往往有相似之处 市场在地缘冲击后通常复苏

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追溯至珍珠港事件以来

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这就是我们当前分析的重点

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在右侧

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可以看到标普500指数与地缘事件

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看来历史确实会在军事行动后重演

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嗯

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确实出现了一波回调

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我们可能正处于这一回调初期

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我认为事件上周刚发生时

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嗯

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美以主导局势 许多电视评论员

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认为危机可能在本周末结束

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显然情况并非如此

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可能不会在一周内解决

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我们需要观察局势恶化程度

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但关键在于在大幅回调阶段

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若看向右侧

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那里有很多绿色回升

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三个月后

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六个月后

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十二个月后

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通常会在初期回调后出现强劲反弹

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我预计这一阶段也会出现类似走势

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因此观察

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人工智能

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基本面良好的个股

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在此期间可能非常及时

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但具有逼空潜力的股票

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机构做空持仓

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且公司基本面良好

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我不愿成为这些机构

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希望他们能利用这些事件

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逐步平仓做空头寸

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因为市场反弹时会非常痛苦

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当市场开始回升时

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真是糟糕

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我喜欢这个图表

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我一直在想

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或许你可以向我们的观众介绍一下

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我同意

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我想深入探讨这个

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说实话

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现在大家都在关注石油市场

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我快速浏览了一下，石油期货在96.3美元

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今天收盘时这里涨了7美分

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嗯，我们做了个视频因为上周发生的事情无法忽视

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石油期货飙升至每桶120美元

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这简直是前所未有的波动

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所以史蒂夫和团队还有我聚在一起

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我们说

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我们需要制作些内容

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帮大家解答问题

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有哪些能源股适合全球配置

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我们剪辑了一段视频

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其实我在图表上标出了那个关键时刻

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当我们拍摄时正好是周线低点

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我很少能抓住底部

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是的

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我们不想放胜利实验室

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总之大家可以在Seeking Alpha视频库查看

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现在你可以在搜索栏输入视频库

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我也会让团队在聊天区标注

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如果你正在观看视频

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事后回顾

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可以点击下方视频链接

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看完视频后

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查看五只能源股的量化分析

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分析石油市场动态及如何分散投资

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确实非常有效的分散投资

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今天我们要介绍这些基本面强劲的AI股

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之前的演示是关于能源股的

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在能源股和AI股之间平衡配置

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能带来很好的分散效果

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如图表所示

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当我们演示时

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精准抓住了底部

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我想强调的是

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当时的情况

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我说

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无论危机结果如何

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当时能源股基本面非常强劲

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我们预见到它们会表现优异

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即使没有这次危机

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以及危机持续的时间

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我们重视基本面

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所以我真的很喜欢这个方法

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呃

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能源股和人工智能股共同

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嗯，稍微深入我们现在看到的情况

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寻找赢家

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嗯，人工智能持续推动并引发反复波动

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你可以看到这张图表上

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这些人工智能ETF波动剧烈

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如果你

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你知道当时看起来相当乐观

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从4月25日到2025年10月左右，再次

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我肯定

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如果你在2025年10月后稍晚入场

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你实际上并未回本

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呃

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但这种情况确实会发生

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在出现回撤的阶段

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尤其是估值被过度拉高的股票

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而在这些ETF中包含许多高估股票

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这就是我们方法的优势

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当我们分析这些股票时

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我们关注个股和基本面

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并非整个ETF策略

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我们重点推荐的证券

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我们认为在数个季度内被误判

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它们应表现良好

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所以人工智能

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如你所见

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嗯

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众多颠覆者

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它们引发

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去年以来的抛售潮

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此时我们经历了深度回调

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随后第三季度和第四季度投资者对估值极度担忧

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甚至在最大七倍止损位

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更不用说许多人工智能股票

235
00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:02,259
我们看到大幅回撤

236
00:09:02,259 --> 00:09:05,529
始于去年第三季度末

237
00:09:09,169 --> 00:09:11,828
这也是我们聚焦个股的原因

238
00:09:11,828 --> 00:09:16,029
我们寻找价值与增长兼具的公司

239
00:09:16,029 --> 00:09:17,190
盈利能力

240
00:09:17,190 --> 00:09:18,370
正EPS

241
00:09:18,370 --> 00:09:19,990
上调修正和动量

242
00:09:19,990 --> 00:09:21,610
我们综合考量多个因素

243
00:09:21,610 --> 00:09:23,990
当我们推荐人工智能股票时

244
00:09:23,990 --> 00:09:26,210
不会极度高估

245
00:09:26,210 --> 00:09:31,059
许多其他股票都是如此，我将切换到下一张幻灯片

246
00:09:31,779 --> 00:09:32,899
所以这里

247
00:09:32,899 --> 00:09:38,629
我们展示的是空头持仓超20%的科技股

248
00:09:38,629 --> 00:09:39,929
你可以查看量化评级

249
00:09:39,929 --> 00:09:45,159
因此，有许多公司可以看到其空头持仓比例相当高

250
00:09:45,159 --> 00:09:48,200
还有一些股票具备更扎实的基本面

251
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,220
所以如果你想从另一个角度看待这个演示并说

252
00:09:51,220 --> 00:09:54,600
你知道我想寻找基本面强劲的公司

253
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,120
买入那些空头持仓高的股票

254
00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,570
但我也想寻找基本面不稳固的公司

255
00:10:00,570 --> 00:10:04,620
特别是那些有强势板块且空头持仓高的公司

256
00:10:04,620 --> 00:10:08,220
这可能是许多对冲基金做研究的地方

257
00:10:08,220 --> 00:10:11,409
他们实际上发现了一些基本面薄弱的公司

258
00:10:11,409 --> 00:10:13,090
而今天我们所做的是

259
00:10:13,090 --> 00:10:17,289
我们正在寻找基本面强劲且空头持仓高的公司

260
00:10:17,289 --> 00:10:20,590
我们的预期是这些被做空的对冲基金

261
00:10:20,590 --> 00:10:22,389
这些股票会被判断错误

262
00:10:22,389 --> 00:10:23,950
当他们判断错误时

263
00:10:23,950 --> 00:10:27,269
历史显示通常会出现逼空行情

264
00:10:27,269 --> 00:10:29,688
这些股票确实会大幅上涨

265
00:10:29,688 --> 00:10:32,049
我现在切换到下一张幻灯片

266
00:10:32,049 --> 00:10:35,789
这展示了当前市场的状况

267
00:10:35,789 --> 00:10:38,009
这是CNN恐惧与贪婪指数

268
00:10:38,009 --> 00:10:42,639
它是最有效的市场情绪基准之一

269
00:10:42,639 --> 00:10:45,179
包含多个指标进行综合评估

270
00:10:45,179 --> 00:10:48,019
我相信昨天做报告时

271
00:10:48,019 --> 00:10:49,620
我们当时处于恐惧区域

272
00:10:50,659 --> 00:10:55,000
当时指数大约在27或28左右

273
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,899
而现在已升至23

274
00:10:57,899 --> 00:10:59,340
这属于极端恐惧

275
00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:02,629
市场担忧进一步加剧

276
00:11:02,629 --> 00:11:04,830
当市场更加担忧时

277
00:11:04,830 --> 00:11:07,889
我们通常处于极端恐惧阶段

278
00:11:07,889 --> 00:11:10,970
此时会出现回调和下跌

279
00:11:10,970 --> 00:11:14,090
核心策略就是低买高卖

280
00:11:14,090 --> 00:11:17,750
当我们观察极端恐惧区域时

281
00:11:17,750 --> 00:11:23,480
历史显示可能是时候逐步入场

282
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,279
开始买入股票

283
00:11:25,279 --> 00:11:27,450
因为在极端恐惧之后

284
00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:29,049
会转向极端贪婪

285
00:11:29,049 --> 00:11:30,129
然后

286
00:11:30,129 --> 00:11:31,730
在恐惧与贪婪之间

287
00:11:31,730 --> 00:11:34,120
通常会出现强劲反弹

288
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,320
但为了提供更全面视角

289
00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,980
当前市场有多恐惧

290
00:11:38,980 --> 00:11:39,500
其实

291
00:11:39,500 --> 00:11:43,220
恐惧程度不如去年四月严重

292
00:11:43,220 --> 00:11:45,899
下一张图表是折线图

293
00:11:45,899 --> 00:11:48,399
数据回溯至2025年4月

294
00:11:48,399 --> 00:11:51,489
当时甚至没有激烈的

295
00:11:51,489 --> 00:11:52,009
战争事件发生

296
00:11:52,009 --> 00:11:53,168
我们确实遇到了问题

297
00:11:53,168 --> 00:11:54,188
当然包括乌克兰局势

298
00:11:54,188 --> 00:11:56,068
明显存在紧张局势

299
00:11:56,068 --> 00:11:56,869
嗯

300
00:11:56,869 --> 00:12:00,078
以及以色列和中东地区

301
00:12:00,078 --> 00:12:02,958
但美国并未卷入对抗

302
00:12:02,958 --> 00:12:06,438
这更多是由关税引发的

303
00:12:06,438 --> 00:12:07,720
对关税的担忧

304
00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,860
这确实导致市场从二月到四月大幅下跌

305
00:12:12,860 --> 00:12:16,220
我们看好的许多股票在那段时间被重创

306
00:12:16,220 --> 00:12:20,200
但我们鼓励投资者在该时段增持这些股票

307
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,570
如果他们这样做，将会获得丰厚回报

308
00:12:23,570 --> 00:12:24,809
现在我们发现

309
00:12:24,809 --> 00:12:28,179
如果你不走到极端右侧

310
00:12:28,179 --> 00:12:31,480
但你会看到十月后我之前提到的

311
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,159
出现了一种类似的情况

312
00:12:33,159 --> 00:12:34,250
嗯

313
00:12:35,389 --> 00:12:36,190
暂缓行动

314
00:12:36,190 --> 00:12:36,669
呃

315
00:12:36,669 --> 00:12:39,529
许多投资者担心估值过高

316
00:12:39,529 --> 00:12:41,830
这也是我们看到峰值的时刻

317
00:12:41,830 --> 00:12:44,339
七只股票也开始下跌

318
00:12:45,339 --> 00:12:47,658
市场在那段时间非常恐慌

319
00:12:47,658 --> 00:12:48,139
同样

320
00:12:48,139 --> 00:12:52,590
比现在更甚，现在正面临敌对战争

321
00:12:52,590 --> 00:12:56,059
当然我们随着恐慌指数走低

322
00:12:56,059 --> 00:12:59,399
市场可能再次跌至那些水平

323
00:12:59,399 --> 00:13:04,019
但通常在极端恐慌时

324
00:13:04,019 --> 00:13:04,870
嗯

325
00:13:04,870 --> 00:13:06,610
开始加仓

326
00:13:06,610 --> 00:13:08,269
通常是个不错的时机

327
00:13:08,269 --> 00:13:11,269
可能需要几个月时间

328
00:13:11,340 --> 00:13:12,000
可能

329
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:12,379
你知道的

330
00:13:12,379 --> 00:13:14,500
直到去年五月前

331
00:13:14,500 --> 00:13:19,178
我认为市场在触及极端恐慌时

332
00:13:19,178 --> 00:13:22,519
从二月持续到四月底

333
00:13:22,519 --> 00:13:25,960
并在五月左右开始逐步复苏

334
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,539
所以需要精准判断

335
00:13:29,539 --> 00:13:30,980
何时市场见底

336
00:13:30,980 --> 00:13:32,600
无需精准预测

337
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,240
但可以开始布局

338
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,330
那些大幅回调的股票

339
00:13:37,330 --> 00:13:39,809
基本面良好的股票

340
00:13:40,169 --> 00:13:41,669
所以嗯

341
00:13:41,669 --> 00:13:45,980
再补充一点历史背景以说明此类时期的情况

342
00:13:45,980 --> 00:13:46,720
嗯

343
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,519
去年四月期间

344
00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:50,179
市场正在回落

345
00:13:50,179 --> 00:13:54,250
许多四强买入标的具有强劲基本面

346
00:13:54,250 --> 00:13:55,049
我们正在从中脱离

347
00:13:55,049 --> 00:13:55,289
但更多是

348
00:13:55,289 --> 00:13:57,730
之所以发生这种情况是因为资金轮动

349
00:13:57,730 --> 00:14:00,889
当市场充满恐惧且情绪主导时

350
00:14:00,889 --> 00:14:06,190
这种恐惧会让投资者转向避险板块和资产类别

351
00:14:06,190 --> 00:14:07,350
为了实现这一目标

352
00:14:07,350 --> 00:14:09,470
他们会抛售基本面良好的股票

353
00:14:09,470 --> 00:14:09,870
呃

354
00:14:09,870 --> 00:14:11,100
他们只想筹集现金

355
00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:12,899
他们想要保护自己的投资组合

356
00:14:12,899 --> 00:14:15,120
这就是人们陷入恐慌模式时

357
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,860
将资金投入现金或黄金更为重要

358
00:14:17,860 --> 00:14:20,259
或消费必需品、公用事业板块

359
00:14:20,259 --> 00:14:23,860
并从中撤出通常表现良好的板块

360
00:14:23,860 --> 00:14:25,220
以及表现优异的股票

361
00:14:25,220 --> 00:14:27,120
这就是机会产生的原因

362
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:28,730
恐惧导致亏损

363
00:14:28,730 --> 00:14:30,509
坚定信念创造机会

364
00:14:30,509 --> 00:14:33,269
我想展示一下历史规律

365
00:14:33,269 --> 00:14:35,470
所以我们回溯到2010年

366
00:14:35,470 --> 00:14:36,950
嗯

367
00:14:36,950 --> 00:14:38,250
我们进行了筛选

368
00:14:38,250 --> 00:14:38,909
呃

369
00:14:38,909 --> 00:14:39,970
寻找Alpha表现

370
00:14:39,970 --> 00:14:41,409
同时也分析了Quine数据

371
00:14:41,409 --> 00:14:43,029
所以我们回溯到2010年

372
00:14:43,029 --> 00:14:46,799
我们观察了五次市场回调

373
00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:50,799
市场下跌至少15%的情况

374
00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:56,409
通常的做法是买入标普500指数

375
00:14:56,409 --> 00:14:58,090
在这五次回调期间

376
00:14:58,090 --> 00:15:00,730
当市场平均下跌15%时

377
00:15:00,730 --> 00:15:02,419
如果持有两年

378
00:15:02,419 --> 00:15:06,769
平均回报率接近50%

379
00:15:06,769 --> 00:15:07,350
然而

380
00:15:07,350 --> 00:15:09,289
如果你买入前十大

381
00:15:09,289 --> 00:15:10,990
强买股票

382
00:15:10,990 --> 00:15:13,750
通常在市场回调15%时

383
00:15:13,750 --> 00:15:17,759
这些强买股会回撤20-30-40%

384
00:15:17,759 --> 00:15:18,639
在许多情况下

385
00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:20,659
这些是基本面良好的股票

386
00:15:20,659 --> 00:15:22,399
这就是人们抛售现金时的选择

387
00:15:22,399 --> 00:15:23,809
他们卖出优质股票

388
00:15:23,809 --> 00:15:24,309
嗯

389
00:15:24,309 --> 00:15:26,350
因此它们的跌幅甚至超过市场

390
00:15:26,350 --> 00:15:28,210
如果你买入前十大股票

391
00:15:28,210 --> 00:15:31,940
当市场平均回调5-15%时

392
00:15:31,940 --> 00:15:35,440
两年后收益达117%

393
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,860
这张图表此前展示的事件

394
00:15:38,860 --> 00:15:40,549
嗯这些类似事件

395
00:15:40,549 --> 00:15:42,110
回溯到珍珠港事件

396
00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:43,909
出现初始回撤

397
00:15:43,909 --> 00:15:46,169
但三个月后

398
00:15:46,169 --> 00:15:48,029
六个月后和一年后

399
00:15:48,029 --> 00:15:49,529
市场继续上涨

400
00:15:49,529 --> 00:15:51,629
回调情况也是如此

401
00:15:51,629 --> 00:15:53,419
我们发现平均来看

402
00:15:53,419 --> 00:15:55,879
当出现15%的回调时

403
00:15:55,879 --> 00:15:58,149
你通过持有市场表现优异

404
00:15:58,149 --> 00:16:02,450
但通过强劲买入操作表现更佳

405
00:16:03,210 --> 00:16:03,970
所以啊

406
00:16:03,970 --> 00:16:06,710
我想让我们达到当前利率水平

407
00:16:06,710 --> 00:16:07,470
嗯

408
00:16:07,470 --> 00:16:09,620
在接下来的会议中

409
00:16:09,620 --> 00:16:14,000
几乎所有利率交易员都认为不会降息

410
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,980
这与预期场景截然不同

411
00:16:17,980 --> 00:16:20,279
回到去年第三季度和第四季度

412
00:16:20,279 --> 00:16:26,690
当时利率交易员预计2026年将有三次降息

413
00:16:26,690 --> 00:16:27,210
嗯

414
00:16:27,210 --> 00:16:27,789
显然

415
00:16:27,789 --> 00:16:28,529
嗯

416
00:16:28,529 --> 00:16:29,610
世界已发生改变

417
00:16:29,610 --> 00:16:31,629
通胀仍保持粘性

418
00:16:31,629 --> 00:16:33,889
劳动力市场比我预期的更强劲

419
00:16:33,889 --> 00:16:35,730
而现在我们面临

420
00:16:35,730 --> 00:16:41,700
投资者认为今年可能不会大幅下跌

421
00:16:41,700 --> 00:16:46,470
因此不能只关注本月或下一次两次FOMC会议

422
00:16:46,470 --> 00:16:48,889
我们必须延伸至9月16日

423
00:16:48,889 --> 00:16:54,230
在利率交易员评估任何降息概率前

424
00:16:54,230 --> 00:16:55,850
当我们到达9月16日时

425
00:16:55,850 --> 00:16:57,169
嗯50%

426
00:16:57,169 --> 00:17:00,149
5%的利率交易员认为不会降息

427
00:17:00,149 --> 00:17:00,649
30%

428
00:17:00,649 --> 00:17:03,450
5%认为将降息25个基点

429
00:17:03,450 --> 00:17:07,529
8%认为将降息50个基点

430
00:17:07,529 --> 00:17:08,069
嗯

431
00:17:08,069 --> 00:17:12,049
这与去年第三季度和第四季度的情况截然不同

432
00:17:12,049 --> 00:17:12,730
嗯

433
00:17:12,730 --> 00:17:14,029
去年

434
00:17:14,029 --> 00:17:15,049
在短期内

435
00:17:15,049 --> 00:17:16,549
无人预期降息

436
00:17:16,549 --> 00:17:22,910
我们必须将利率下调可能性推迟至9月

437
00:17:24,089 --> 00:17:24,710
好的

438
00:17:24,710 --> 00:17:25,329
嗯丹尼尔

439
00:17:25,329 --> 00:17:27,809
你推荐的这篇文章非常有趣

440
00:17:27,809 --> 00:17:28,349
是的

441
00:17:28,349 --> 00:17:30,769
这是我们在Seeking Alpha的丽兹·奎奇撰写的

442
00:17:30,769 --> 00:17:32,609
她刚刚在1小时内发布

443
00:17:32,609 --> 00:17:34,029
实际上强调

444
00:17:34,029 --> 00:17:34,690
特别是

445
00:17:34,690 --> 00:17:37,380
我想指出第二段内容

446
00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:40,078
今日市场出现的转变

447
00:17:40,078 --> 00:17:41,818
我们在债券市场观察到的变化

448
00:17:41,818 --> 00:17:43,900
以及利率交易员的操作

449
00:17:43,900 --> 00:17:46,799
没有人预期会有全额二十五个基点

450
00:17:46,799 --> 00:17:48,559
削减今年剩余部分

451
00:17:48,559 --> 00:17:49,849
截至目前

452
00:17:49,849 --> 00:17:52,329
显然与石油密切相关

453
00:17:52,329 --> 00:17:54,650
这种可能的再通胀

454
00:17:54,650 --> 00:17:56,009
交易的另一面

455
00:17:56,009 --> 00:17:57,690
我必须密切关注

456
00:17:57,690 --> 00:18:00,429
中东局势的发展

457
00:18:00,429 --> 00:18:00,909
嗯

458
00:18:00,909 --> 00:18:02,689
但正如你提到的

459
00:18:02,689 --> 00:18:05,779
与交易员最初预期出现变化

460
00:18:05,779 --> 00:18:07,279
甚至在年初之前

461
00:18:07,279 --> 00:18:08,420
但要表扬莉兹

462
00:18:08,420 --> 00:18:10,869
非常感谢你发布在alpha平台

463
00:18:10,869 --> 00:18:11,349
是的

464
00:18:11,349 --> 00:18:13,630
第三季度和第四季度信心十足

465
00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:14,210
嗯

466
00:18:14,210 --> 00:18:16,730
我们预计会有三次降息

467
00:18:16,730 --> 00:18:17,859
是的

468
00:18:18,140 --> 00:18:20,380
人们已改变看法

469
00:18:20,380 --> 00:18:20,980
所以我们将

470
00:18:20,980 --> 00:18:24,140
拭目以待未来几周几个月的发展

471
00:18:24,140 --> 00:18:24,880
拭目以待

472
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,400
所以嗯

473
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,400
现在我们转向人工智能

474
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,559
人工智能股票大幅下跌

475
00:18:30,559 --> 00:18:31,359
嗯

476
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,859
因投资者情绪和恐惧大幅回落

477
00:18:34,859 --> 00:18:37,980
基于过高估值

478
00:18:37,980 --> 00:18:45,359
基于大量竞争推动更高效技术

479
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,079
大量恐惧推动股价下跌

480
00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:49,119
人工智能股票

481
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,059
但我要告诉你什么没有下跌

482
00:18:51,059 --> 00:18:57,089
真正是需求预期及其意义

483
00:18:57,089 --> 00:19:00,210
当你查看右侧图表

484
00:19:00,210 --> 00:19:01,769
这是人工智能市场

485
00:19:01,769 --> 00:19:03,309
市场走势图

486
00:19:03,309 --> 00:19:04,009
嗯

487
00:19:04,009 --> 00:19:07,509
显示我们在2026年的位置

488
00:19:07,509 --> 00:19:09,529
而爱丽丝预计

489
00:19:09,529 --> 00:19:16,849
到2033年的市场规模

490
00:19:16,849 --> 00:19:18,009
所以嗯

491
00:19:18,009 --> 00:19:22,329
人工智能市场届时将达三千亿美元

492
00:19:22,329 --> 00:19:25,450
由科技巨头投资驱动

493
00:19:25,450 --> 00:19:26,609
说真的

494
00:19:26,609 --> 00:19:27,109
每天

495
00:19:27,109 --> 00:19:32,890
像我和丹尼尔这样的个人都在使用AI

496
00:19:32,890 --> 00:19:34,429
但几乎找不到不使用的人

497
00:19:34,429 --> 00:19:34,868
等等

498
00:19:34,868 --> 00:19:36,848
个人层面和企业层面

499
00:19:36,848 --> 00:19:39,909
人工智能的采用速度极快

500
00:19:39,909 --> 00:19:42,828
其增长速度前所未有

501
00:19:42,828 --> 00:19:44,888
Chat GBT就是一个很好的例子

502
00:19:44,888 --> 00:19:48,490
目前每月活跃用户已超十亿

503
00:19:48,490 --> 00:19:51,849
相比两年前的两亿用户大幅增长

504
00:19:51,849 --> 00:19:55,130
这些数字令人惊叹

505
00:19:55,130 --> 00:19:57,599
就他们正在经历的增长而言

506
00:19:57,599 --> 00:20:00,900
还有许多新平台正在涌现

507
00:20:00,900 --> 00:20:05,818
许多公司通过AI提升效率进入市场

508
00:20:05,818 --> 00:20:09,079
对AI基础设施的需求已超过供应

509
00:20:09,079 --> 00:20:11,859
存在关键技术短缺

510
00:20:11,859 --> 00:20:13,200
包括内存芯片

511
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:17,019
内存芯片和先进网络硬件

512
00:20:17,019 --> 00:20:17,559
嗯

513
00:20:17,559 --> 00:20:21,240
能源需求也大幅增加

514
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:26,250
因为数据中心承载着服务器和芯片

515
00:20:26,250 --> 00:20:27,130
嗯

516
00:20:27,130 --> 00:20:28,470
基本上为

517
00:20:28,470 --> 00:20:29,339
AI

518
00:20:30,019 --> 00:20:32,799
能源需求巨大

519
00:20:32,799 --> 00:20:36,009
如今油价处于这一水平

520
00:20:36,009 --> 00:20:37,009
这确实

521
00:20:37,009 --> 00:20:38,630
可能引发通胀

522
00:20:38,630 --> 00:20:39,880
所以嗯

523
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,920
市场有需求

524
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:43,319
股价已回落

525
00:20:43,319 --> 00:20:45,640
但股价因恐惧下跌

526
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,619
这由市场情绪驱动

527
00:20:47,619 --> 00:20:51,210
通常我们发现这种情况会在几个季度后

528
00:20:51,210 --> 00:20:57,409
公司持续提供超预期的盈利和营收

529
00:20:57,409 --> 00:21:02,029
随后市场会从恐惧和情绪转向基本面

530
00:21:02,029 --> 00:21:05,029
未来几个季度很可能出现这种情况

531
00:21:05,029 --> 00:21:05,670
事实上

532
00:21:05,670 --> 00:21:08,190
迄今为止大多数已公布财报的公司

533
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:08,720
嗯

534
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,619
实际表现相当不错

535
00:21:10,619 --> 00:21:12,400
抛售仍在继续

536
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,039
但总体而言

537
00:21:14,039 --> 00:21:17,199
许多AI公司同时超越营收和利润预期

538
00:21:17,199 --> 00:21:19,618
为什么使用量化分析呢

539
00:21:19,618 --> 00:21:23,480
量化本身是高效工具

540
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:24,880
其实

541
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,400
早期的人工智能版本

542
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,089
许多现有模型

543
00:21:29,089 --> 00:21:30,769
我们使用量化的方法

544
00:21:30,769 --> 00:21:33,369
与美林或摩根分析师的工作类似

545
00:21:33,369 --> 00:21:34,150
斯坦利或高盛

546
00:21:34,150 --> 00:21:35,670
斯坦利或高盛

547
00:21:35,670 --> 00:21:38,449
我们分析投资特征

548
00:21:38,449 --> 00:21:43,028
并评估公司基本面

549
00:21:43,028 --> 00:21:43,469
然而

550
00:21:43,469 --> 00:21:45,679
我们增添了计算机处理能力

551
00:21:45,679 --> 00:21:47,219
因此借助计算机处理能力

552
00:21:47,219 --> 00:21:52,920
我们能够分析基本面并提出买卖方向建议

553
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,680
但我们可以在Seeking Alpha平台实现这一点

554
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,880
我们每日评估近五千家公司

555
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,839
对于普通分析师而言

556
00:22:01,839 --> 00:22:03,000
当我还是分析师时

557
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:04,279
最理想情况下

558
00:22:04,279 --> 00:22:05,740
或许只能覆盖二十家公司

559
00:22:05,740 --> 00:22:08,109
当你覆盖二十家公司时

560
00:22:08,109 --> 00:22:11,369
或许每月能撰写两份完整研究报告

561
00:22:11,369 --> 00:22:12,509
如果运气好的话

562
00:22:12,509 --> 00:22:16,599
量化分析的优势在于我们能评估这些公司

563
00:22:16,599 --> 00:22:19,019
并每日更新数据

564
00:22:19,019 --> 00:22:22,039
因此我们每天为您提供新鲜的买卖方向建议

565
00:22:22,039 --> 00:22:25,278
强力买入基于更新的资产负债表

566
00:22:25,278 --> 00:22:26,038
损益表

567
00:22:26,038 --> 00:22:27,359
现金流量表

568
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:32,400
并与行业内的其他公司对比数百个财务指标

569
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,170
这使我们能够对所有公司进行排名

570
00:22:35,170 --> 00:22:37,910
区分优质公司与弱势公司

571
00:22:37,910 --> 00:22:39,430
这就是我们使用Quad的原因

572
00:22:39,430 --> 00:22:42,000
我们在这里有良好的业绩记录

573
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:43,539
您可以查看过去五年

574
00:22:43,539 --> 00:22:44,980
这些是模拟交易

575
00:22:44,980 --> 00:22:47,029
这不是宗教仪式

576
00:22:47,029 --> 00:22:51,740
这些是Seeking Alpha实际运行的模拟交易

577
00:22:51,740 --> 00:22:52,599
嗯

578
00:22:52,599 --> 00:22:55,200
我想说这不是农产品

579
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:55,779
呃

580
00:22:55,779 --> 00:22:57,480
因为每天

581
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,719
从三百五十到四百只强力买入标的

582
00:23:00,719 --> 00:23:03,638
但核心在于我们要分享这一策略

583
00:23:03,638 --> 00:23:08,109
这与GARP策略（增长合理价格）类似

584
00:23:08,109 --> 00:23:13,659
我们关注价值、盈利、增长及正面修正

585
00:23:13,659 --> 00:23:16,699
这证明了该策略的有效性

586
00:23:16,699 --> 00:23:17,138
嗯

587
00:23:17,138 --> 00:23:18,499
我们每日再平衡投资组合

588
00:23:18,499 --> 00:23:22,000
您可以看到过去五年

589
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,269
我们的Quad强力买入上涨156%

590
00:23:25,269 --> 00:23:28,990
而华尔街强力买入仅上涨6.35%

591
00:23:28,990 --> 00:23:31,750
同期时间

592
00:23:31,750 --> 00:23:33,829
五年间差距明显

593
00:23:33,829 --> 00:23:34,150
嗯

594
00:23:34,150 --> 00:23:39,240
标普500指数同期上涨53%

595
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,740
但Quad涨幅达156%

596
00:23:42,740 --> 00:23:45,289
接下来开始下一张幻灯片

597
00:23:45,289 --> 00:23:48,029
我们将进入我们的顶级

598
00:23:48,029 --> 00:23:50,450
AI股票带短期潜力

599
00:23:50,450 --> 00:23:52,529
嗯，我挑选这些股票的方式

600
00:23:53,450 --> 00:23:56,970
嗯，基本上我关注空头持仓水平

601
00:23:56,970 --> 00:23:59,710
同时寻找基本面良好的公司

602
00:23:59,710 --> 00:24:01,569
我们实际上可以把这个

603
00:24:01,569 --> 00:24:03,058
放到屏幕上

604
00:24:03,058 --> 00:24:06,759
在Seeking Alpha我们有筛选工具和投资组合功能

605
00:24:06,759 --> 00:24:08,500
你可以识别这些公司

606
00:24:08,500 --> 00:24:09,119
嗯

607
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:10,359
基于我们提供的

608
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,140
价值增长评级

609
00:24:12,140 --> 00:24:13,170
盈利能力

610
00:24:13,170 --> 00:24:15,410
以及方向性推荐

611
00:24:15,410 --> 00:24:18,650
同时识别空头持仓水平高的公司

612
00:24:18,650 --> 00:24:21,909
这就是我们所做的，相对简单

613
00:24:21,909 --> 00:24:22,648
嗯

614
00:24:22,648 --> 00:24:23,909
但效果相当不错

615
00:24:23,909 --> 00:24:29,199
我们喜欢发现基本面强劲且空头持仓高的公司

616
00:24:32,799 --> 00:24:35,779
关于我们选出的五只股票

617
00:24:35,779 --> 00:24:36,659
嗯

618
00:24:36,659 --> 00:24:42,638
这五家公司的平均营收增长率达21%

619
00:24:42,638 --> 00:24:44,679
但更重要的是

620
00:24:44,679 --> 00:24:48,589
它们的每股收益增长率达72%

621
00:24:48,589 --> 00:24:49,809
为了更直观

622
00:24:49,809 --> 00:24:52,490
如果看标普500的营收增长率

623
00:24:52,490 --> 00:24:56,380
标普500的营收增长率仅为6%

624
00:24:56,380 --> 00:24:58,690
每股收益增长率

625
00:24:58,690 --> 00:25:00,390
则是10.6%

626
00:25:00,390 --> 00:25:04,430
这五家公司每股收益增长率72%

627
00:25:04,430 --> 00:25:07,519
相比标普500的10.6%

628
00:25:07,519 --> 00:25:10,259
如果要提取七只股票

629
00:25:10,259 --> 00:25:13,019
它们的每股收益增长率20%

630
00:25:13,019 --> 00:25:18,220
这五只顶级股票的每股收益增长率远超同类

631
00:25:18,220 --> 00:25:21,980
对标普500和七只股票都更优

632
00:25:22,269 --> 00:25:25,690
我们的第一只股票是Momentum Holdings

633
00:25:25,690 --> 00:25:27,569
股票代码IT

634
00:25:27,569 --> 00:25:29,829
市值470亿美元

635
00:25:29,829 --> 00:25:31,449
属于强烈买入评级

636
00:25:31,449 --> 00:25:32,848
属于IT行业

637
00:25:32,848 --> 00:25:35,019
显然这些公司大多如此

638
00:25:35,019 --> 00:25:39,659
在527家公司中排名第3

639
00:25:39,659 --> 00:25:40,578
但更重要的是

640
00:25:40,578 --> 00:25:45,569
在通信设备行业37只股票中排名第1

641
00:25:45,614 --> 00:25:48,390
这只股票涨幅惊人

642
00:25:48,390 --> 00:25:52,789
过去52周上涨近1000%

643
00:25:52,789 --> 00:25:56,690
但我要提醒不要被吓退

644
00:25:56,690 --> 00:25:58,349
看右边

645
00:25:58,349 --> 00:25:59,950
你会看到因子评级

646
00:25:59,950 --> 00:26:02,529
这些评级均为行业相对

647
00:26:02,529 --> 00:26:03,719
显示了

648
00:26:03,719 --> 00:26:04,358
嗯

649
00:26:04,358 --> 00:26:05,278
我想强调的是

650
00:26:05,278 --> 00:26:06,098
这就是估值分析

651
00:26:06,098 --> 00:26:07,239
它属于D级

652
00:26:07,239 --> 00:26:09,019
相比行业而言价格偏高

653
00:26:09,019 --> 00:26:12,380
但重要的是六个月前它是D级

654
00:26:12,380 --> 00:26:12,940
所以

655
00:26:12,940 --> 00:26:15,659
尽管股价上涨近一千个百分点

656
00:26:15,659 --> 00:26:20,358
其估值几乎与六个月前相同

657
00:26:20,358 --> 00:26:23,329
短期空头比例达15%

658
00:26:23,329 --> 00:26:24,369
增长速率

659
00:26:24,369 --> 00:26:24,890
嗯

660
00:26:24,890 --> 00:26:28,579
评级为加号对比嗯

661
00:26:28,579 --> 00:26:31,349
三个月前和六个月前均为加号

662
00:26:31,349 --> 00:26:32,990
因此增长势头非常强劲

663
00:26:34,029 --> 00:26:36,549
估值保持不变且略显昂贵

664
00:26:36,549 --> 00:26:39,890
但仍是强烈买入推荐

665
00:26:39,890 --> 00:26:44,109
你可以看到我今天要带大家到平台这里

666
00:26:44,109 --> 00:26:45,230
所以我们现在开始

667
00:26:45,230 --> 00:26:47,609
我们将调出该公司

668
00:26:50,579 --> 00:26:57,190
稍等片刻你将看到我们的股票页面

669
00:26:57,190 --> 00:26:57,849
嗯

670
00:26:57,849 --> 00:27:00,250
今日股价随大盘受挫

671
00:27:00,250 --> 00:27:00,829
嗯

672
00:27:00,829 --> 00:27:01,730
下跌了8点

673
00:27:01,730 --> 00:27:02,329
3%

674
00:27:02,329 --> 00:27:04,859
这可能是一个不错的买入机会

675
00:27:04,859 --> 00:27:05,920
因为你可以看到

676
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,619
正如我之前提到的过去一年

677
00:27:07,619 --> 00:27:09,640
上涨了862%

678
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,730
今年以来

679
00:27:10,730 --> 00:27:12,930
股价上涨67%

680
00:27:12,930 --> 00:27:15,789
这里出现了一点回调

681
00:27:15,789 --> 00:27:17,690
鉴于今年以来股价涨幅巨大

682
00:27:17,690 --> 00:27:19,609
但我要深入分析估值评级

683
00:27:19,609 --> 00:27:20,750
现在来看估值

684
00:27:20,750 --> 00:27:21,799
当前估值

685
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:22,680
实际上

686
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:23,400
嗯，发生了变化

687
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:24,519
现在是D+

688
00:27:24,519 --> 00:27:24,640
所以

689
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,400
相比六个月前更具吸引力和价值

690
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:29,699
当时是D-

691
00:27:29,699 --> 00:27:31,519
我现在点击估值

692
00:27:31,519 --> 00:27:33,638
你可能会看到这里有些红色提示

693
00:27:33,638 --> 00:27:35,019
对于传统指标如市盈率

694
00:27:35,019 --> 00:27:38,019
甚至对于其他指标

695
00:27:38,019 --> 00:27:40,339
但值得关注的是PEG比率

696
00:27:40,339 --> 00:27:44,849
PEG比率结合了市盈率与增长速度

697
00:27:44,849 --> 00:27:50,079
因此你获得了一个综合评估框架，结合增长与传统市盈率

698
00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:54,388
它的市盈率为0.89，而行业平均为1.27

699
00:27:54,388 --> 00:27:55,669
在挂钩指标方面

700
00:27:55,669 --> 00:28:00,569
实际上比行业b+档低近30%

701
00:28:00,569 --> 00:28:03,049
真正提升了你看到的大量fs指标

702
00:28:04,049 --> 00:28:10,420
因为这是一个能同时整合增长与市盈率的优秀特征

703
00:28:10,420 --> 00:28:12,460
如果我们观察公司增长情况

704
00:28:13,930 --> 00:28:16,549
你会看到一份全A的成绩单

705
00:28:16,549 --> 00:28:20,709
未来增长预期为51%

706
00:28:20,709 --> 00:28:22,669
相比行业平均10%

707
00:28:22,669 --> 00:28:27,159
可以看到ebitda增长率达129%

708
00:28:27,159 --> 00:28:29,259
相比行业14%

709
00:28:29,259 --> 00:28:31,919
然后看未来每股收益增长率

710
00:28:31,919 --> 00:28:34,089
达142%

711
00:28:34,089 --> 00:28:35,970
相比行业14%

712
00:28:35,970 --> 00:28:37,679
由此可见我喜欢这家公司

713
00:28:37,679 --> 00:28:41,199
其增长表现显著优于行业其他企业

714
00:28:41,199 --> 00:28:45,200
虽然当前市盈率略显偏高

715
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,759
当将市盈率与增长及价值结合

716
00:28:47,759 --> 00:28:49,450
确实具有吸引力

717
00:28:49,450 --> 00:28:50,690
所以啊

718
00:28:50,690 --> 00:28:52,710
这再次是动量持仓

719
00:28:52,710 --> 00:28:54,250
它的代码是

720
00:28:54,250 --> 00:28:56,779
让我们回到演示文稿

721
00:28:56,940 --> 00:28:57,579
你知道的

722
00:28:57,579 --> 00:28:57,740
大型

723
00:28:57,740 --> 00:28:59,339
手机用户请查看资料

724
00:28:59,339 --> 00:29:02,900
我们的第二只股票是Fastly Ticker

725
00:29:02,900 --> 00:29:05,489
代码为FSLY嗯

726
00:29:05,489 --> 00:29:07,269
这是一家市值较小的公司

727
00:29:07,269 --> 00:29:08,388
但依然

728
00:29:08,388 --> 00:29:08,989
嗯

729
00:29:08,989 --> 00:29:10,079
你知道的

730
00:29:10,079 --> 00:29:11,880
我认为是大型公司

731
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:12,319
呃

732
00:29:12,319 --> 00:29:14,740
绝对不是小盘股或中盘股

733
00:29:14,740 --> 00:29:16,680
市值为34.5亿美元

734
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,979
在it行业领域

735
00:29:18,979 --> 00:29:21,470
在527家公司中排名第4

736
00:29:21,470 --> 00:29:24,109
该公司属于行业头部企业

737
00:29:24,109 --> 00:29:25,190
在其所在行业中

738
00:29:25,190 --> 00:29:25,950
属于互联网

739
00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:27,869
服务与基础设施

740
00:29:27,869 --> 00:29:31,589
过去52周在23家公司中排名第1

741
00:29:31,589 --> 00:29:34,589
股价现已上涨266%

742
00:29:34,589 --> 00:29:36,990
如果看右侧估值部分

743
00:29:36,990 --> 00:29:41,210
确实比三个月前和六个月前更贵

744
00:29:41,210 --> 00:29:42,869
但增长依然强劲

745
00:29:42,869 --> 00:29:44,779
下方图表显示

746
00:29:44,779 --> 00:29:45,420
嗯

747
00:29:45,420 --> 00:29:46,799
股价真的大幅上涨

748
00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:48,019
这是一朵云

749
00:29:48,019 --> 00:29:51,359
专注于网络安全的平台运营商

750
00:29:51,359 --> 00:29:53,460
在当前环境中这一点尤为重要

751
00:29:53,460 --> 00:29:57,430
网络优化与AI密集型内容分发

752
00:29:57,430 --> 00:30:03,179
其外资增长率达66%，高于行业15%

753
00:30:03,179 --> 00:30:09,609
运营现金流增长达110%，高于行业15%

754
00:30:09,609 --> 00:30:14,960
无杠杆现金流利润率23%，高于行业11%

755
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,319
所以再次

756
00:30:16,319 --> 00:30:19,099
空头持仓比例高达11%

757
00:30:19,099 --> 00:30:24,619
如果你查看这张图表和量化评级历史

758
00:30:24,619 --> 00:30:25,460
呃

759
00:30:25,460 --> 00:30:27,200
整个过程暂时中断了

760
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,880
但在此期间股价大幅上涨

761
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,480
我认为对冲基金开始感受到压力了

762
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,099
我想快速查看一下

763
00:30:37,099 --> 00:30:39,259
有些人可能还记得这支股票

764
00:30:39,259 --> 00:30:41,099
在2020年市场热潮期间

765
00:30:41,099 --> 00:30:42,549
如果你回看历史

766
00:30:42,549 --> 00:30:44,509
我不确定是否属于投机

767
00:30:44,509 --> 00:30:46,470
但当时这支股票确实暴涨

768
00:30:46,470 --> 00:30:47,910
股价一度超过100美元

769
00:30:47,910 --> 00:30:49,990
如今股价已大幅回落

770
00:30:49,990 --> 00:30:52,509
但似乎有回升动量

771
00:30:52,509 --> 00:30:53,509
这确实是个有趣的空头机会

772
00:30:53,509 --> 00:30:55,009
你指出的完全正确

773
00:30:55,009 --> 00:30:55,759
是的

774
00:30:55,759 --> 00:30:57,279
感谢你的分析

775
00:30:57,279 --> 00:30:57,920
呃

776
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:59,480
第三支是E Core Holdings

777
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:00,259
股票代码

778
00:31:00,259 --> 00:31:01,920
I C HR

779
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:02,480
呃

780
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,960
这是一家

781
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,759
曾经的小盘股公司

782
00:31:06,759 --> 00:31:09,079
市值约51亿美元

783
00:31:09,079 --> 00:31:12,240
在IT板块中排名第6/527

784
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,130
这是一家半导体材料与设备公司

785
00:31:15,130 --> 00:31:18,990
在该行业中排名第1/32

786
00:31:18,990 --> 00:31:20,369
过去52周

787
00:31:20,369 --> 00:31:22,170
股价上涨81%

788
00:31:22,170 --> 00:31:24,970
过去一年做空这支股票真是遗憾

789
00:31:24,970 --> 00:31:26,190
上涨81%

790
00:31:26,190 --> 00:31:28,009
尤其是对比其他股票

791
00:31:28,009 --> 00:31:30,338
真正有趣的是

792
00:31:30,338 --> 00:31:31,278
尽管这支股票

793
00:31:31,278 --> 00:31:32,838
上涨了81%

794
00:31:32,838 --> 00:31:35,199
估值指标其实非常合理

795
00:31:35,199 --> 00:31:36,480
评级为B+

796
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,299
这意味着相比行业更具性价比

797
00:31:40,299 --> 00:31:42,940
增长评级为A+

798
00:31:42,940 --> 00:31:45,719
该股票在行业中估值偏低

799
00:31:45,719 --> 00:31:47,719
增长势头强于行业平均水平

800
00:31:47,719 --> 00:31:49,359
盈利能力尚不突出

801
00:31:49,359 --> 00:31:51,039
但股票具备强劲动量

802
00:31:51,039 --> 00:31:52,519
事实上观察动量指标

803
00:31:52,519 --> 00:31:53,920
目前已是A级

804
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:55,200
与六个月前相比

805
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,240
当时仅为F级

806
00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:02,219
动量评级凸显股价相对于行业的涨幅

807
00:32:02,219 --> 00:32:03,519
这就是动量因素

808
00:32:03,519 --> 00:32:04,519
嗯

809
00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:05,640
这是一个相对概念

810
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:06,859
并非绝对动量

811
00:32:06,859 --> 00:32:08,640
而是相对于行业

812
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:13,589
表现远超行业且较六个月前大幅改善

813
00:32:13,589 --> 00:32:16,089
分析师正日益变得

814
00:32:16,089 --> 00:32:17,170
非常看好这家公司

815
00:32:17,170 --> 00:32:18,589
可查看修正评级

816
00:32:18,589 --> 00:32:23,449
修正评级反映上调预测的分析师数量

817
00:32:23,449 --> 00:32:26,969
公司现时对分析师更具吸引力

818
00:32:26,969 --> 00:32:29,769
相比六个月前的D-级

819
00:32:29,769 --> 00:32:32,179
众多分析师上调了预测

820
00:32:32,179 --> 00:32:35,358
显然这反映在股价上涨中

821
00:32:35,358 --> 00:32:38,888
就公司增长率而言

822
00:32:38,888 --> 00:32:40,469
这是一个长期指标

823
00:32:40,469 --> 00:32:43,888
三年至五年的复合增长率达70%

824
00:32:43,888 --> 00:32:46,079
行业平均仅为16%

825
00:32:46,079 --> 00:32:47,319
ROE增长率

826
00:32:47,319 --> 00:32:48,839
这不是绝对ROE值

827
00:32:48,839 --> 00:32:50,279
而是ROE增长率

828
00:32:50,279 --> 00:32:50,920
嗯

829
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,980
同比增幅达96%

830
00:32:53,980 --> 00:32:57,839
行业ROE增长率仅3%

831
00:32:57,839 --> 00:33:00,759
PEG指标为57%

832
00:33:00,759 --> 00:33:01,469
折价

833
00:33:01,469 --> 00:33:03,868
在多个评估指标上

834
00:33:03,868 --> 00:33:05,288
均具吸引力

835
00:33:05,288 --> 00:33:06,848
该分析框架表现良好

836
00:33:06,848 --> 00:33:08,048
我不愿做空

837
00:33:08,048 --> 00:33:09,269
这只股票

838
00:33:09,710 --> 00:33:12,309
我们的第四只股票是易企公司

839
00:33:12,309 --> 00:33:12,809
嗯

840
00:33:12,809 --> 00:33:14,930
实际上并非科技公司

841
00:33:14,930 --> 00:33:16,109
小盘股

842
00:33:16,109 --> 00:33:16,930
市值16.3亿美元

843
00:33:16,930 --> 00:33:17,789
30亿美元

844
00:33:17,789 --> 00:33:19,849
属于金融行业

845
00:33:19,849 --> 00:33:20,589
嗯

846
00:33:20,589 --> 00:33:22,390
堪称行业领先

847
00:33:22,390 --> 00:33:23,529
供应商

848
00:33:23,529 --> 00:33:23,950
呃

849
00:33:23,950 --> 00:33:26,400
有点像掌上经纪交易

850
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,619
但他们正在利用AI驱动的工具

851
00:33:28,619 --> 00:33:29,640
例如他们的应用程序

852
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:30,660
现在已存在

853
00:33:30,660 --> 00:33:32,319
这就是Easy Plus应用

854
00:33:32,319 --> 00:33:35,249
它将提供在线即时报价

855
00:33:35,249 --> 00:33:38,169
这已成为一个非常受欢迎的平台

856
00:33:38,169 --> 00:33:39,839
我明白了

857
00:33:39,839 --> 00:33:42,460
我认为在汉堡王行业

858
00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:44,619
在消费金融领域

859
00:33:44,619 --> 00:33:45,839
这是公司所属的领域

860
00:33:45,839 --> 00:33:48,089
在该行业中排名第三十八

861
00:33:48,089 --> 00:33:49,589
在整个金融领域

862
00:33:49,589 --> 00:33:51,529
在金融行业方面

863
00:33:51,529 --> 00:33:54,009
在六百七十三只股票中排名第六

864
00:33:54,009 --> 00:33:54,659
嗯

865
00:33:54,659 --> 00:33:59,230
在这个环境中你会看到很多个人

866
00:33:59,230 --> 00:33:59,829
嗯

867
00:33:59,829 --> 00:34:03,309
他们在金融方面可能略显不利

868
00:34:03,309 --> 00:34:08,550
但在这种金融领域实际上在经济困难时期表现良好

869
00:34:08,550 --> 00:34:09,309
期间

870
00:34:14,389 --> 00:34:18,519
因此这为金融行业提供了一定对冲

871
00:34:18,519 --> 00:34:21,219
即使金融行业面临严峻形势

872
00:34:21,219 --> 00:34:23,920
此类公司通常在该时期表现良好

873
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:25,800
并且从他们的财报中可见

874
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:32,239
未来每股收益增长率预计为22%，高于金融行业13%

875
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,679
运营现金流增长率达25%

876
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,050
高于金融行业10%

877
00:34:38,050 --> 00:34:38,969
PEG比率

878
00:34:38,969 --> 00:34:39,369
嗯

879
00:34:39,369 --> 00:34:40,730
该股在行业中享有19%的折价

880
00:34:40,730 --> 00:34:42,090
在行业中处于折价状态

881
00:34:42,090 --> 00:34:45,550
该公司空头持仓率为22%

882
00:34:45,550 --> 00:34:47,150
这相当高

883
00:34:47,150 --> 00:34:48,170
嗯再次

884
00:34:48,170 --> 00:34:50,068
我不想做空该公司

885
00:34:50,068 --> 00:34:53,028
这家公司我感到非常意外

886
00:34:53,028 --> 00:34:53,548
嗯

887
00:34:53,548 --> 00:34:55,608
空头持仓率不如其他公司高

888
00:34:55,608 --> 00:34:59,440
该公司实际空头持仓率为8%

889
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,340
这让我有点意外

890
00:35:01,340 --> 00:35:03,659
这是一家庞大公司

891
00:35:03,659 --> 00:35:06,559
市值达950亿美元

892
00:35:06,559 --> 00:35:08,980
在527家公司中排名第12

893
00:35:08,980 --> 00:35:10,239
可能无需多言

894
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:11,809
大家对其产品都很熟悉

895
00:35:11,809 --> 00:35:15,019
从电脑到存储设备

896
00:35:15,019 --> 00:35:16,019
再到外设

897
00:35:16,019 --> 00:35:16,579
呃

898
00:35:16,579 --> 00:35:17,699
科技硬件

899
00:35:17,699 --> 00:35:18,380
呃

900
00:35:18,380 --> 00:35:20,179
全服务科技公司

901
00:35:20,179 --> 00:35:23,309
现在看起来真的非常出色

902
00:35:23,309 --> 00:35:24,829
如果你看看因子评级

903
00:35:24,829 --> 00:35:25,969
你可以清楚看到

904
00:35:25,969 --> 00:35:26,449
呃

905
00:35:26,449 --> 00:35:28,210
估值网格评分为B减

906
00:35:28,210 --> 00:35:31,929
这意味着相比科技行业它价格低廉

907
00:35:31,929 --> 00:35:33,510
增长率评分为B加

908
00:35:33,510 --> 00:35:34,849
这非常稳健

909
00:35:34,849 --> 00:35:38,250
显然是一家非常盈利的公司，盈利评级为A加

910
00:35:38,250 --> 00:35:38,969
呃

911
00:35:38,969 --> 00:35:42,190
动量评级高于行业，评分为B加

912
00:35:42,190 --> 00:35:47,269
分析师对其评级提升至A减（现有人类公司评级）

913
00:35:47,269 --> 00:35:49,559
相比六个月前的B级

914
00:35:49,559 --> 00:35:52,800
这意味着更多分析师上调了评级

915
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,099
那些下调评级的

916
00:35:54,099 --> 00:35:57,710
这对每股收益增长率非常积极

917
00:35:57,710 --> 00:36:01,480
其增速达21%，高于行业15%

918
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,980
资本回报率为19%

919
00:36:03,980 --> 00:36:06,409
而行业仅为4%

920
00:36:06,409 --> 00:36:08,849
PEG估值为44%

921
00:36:08,849 --> 00:36:09,969
低于行业折扣

922
00:36:09,969 --> 00:36:10,449
啊

923
00:36:10,449 --> 00:36:11,849
很难想象为何有人做空

924
00:36:11,849 --> 00:36:12,610
这只股票

925
00:36:12,610 --> 00:36:13,590
嗯

926
00:36:13,590 --> 00:36:17,489
我认为这五只股票在此价位都很有吸引力

927
00:36:17,489 --> 00:36:20,110
随着市场回调可能更吸引人

928
00:36:20,110 --> 00:36:23,480
而我们继续看到市场中更多恐慌情绪

929
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:24,059
呃

930
00:36:24,059 --> 00:36:25,800
这提供了机会

931
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:26,460
嗯

932
00:36:26,460 --> 00:36:29,079
当人们开始买入这些股票时

933
00:36:29,079 --> 00:36:31,389
这正是逼空行情的关键

934
00:36:31,389 --> 00:36:33,250
将会重创这些对冲基金

935
00:36:33,250 --> 00:36:35,269
这里有一张简图展示

936
00:36:35,269 --> 00:36:35,869
呃

937
00:36:35,869 --> 00:36:36,818
我们的五只

938
00:36:36,818 --> 00:36:40,539
我们精选的五只AI股票

939
00:36:40,898 --> 00:36:42,679
这些能否成为下一个游戏驿站

940
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:43,139
嗯

941
00:36:43,139 --> 00:36:45,278
它们可能表现超越游戏驿站

942
00:36:45,278 --> 00:36:48,840
因为基本面优于游戏驿站

943
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:49,519
你知道的

944
00:36:49,519 --> 00:36:52,480
我们关注的是估值合理的公司

945
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:53,780
强劲增长

946
00:36:53,780 --> 00:36:55,369
稳健盈利能力

947
00:36:55,369 --> 00:36:56,929
非常强劲的上涨势头

948
00:36:56,929 --> 00:36:59,650
所处行业板块和非常积极的每股收益

949
00:36:59,650 --> 00:37:01,449
行业板块的修正数据

950
00:37:01,449 --> 00:37:03,349
并且空头持仓量很高

951
00:37:03,349 --> 00:37:04,150
这意味着

952
00:37:04,150 --> 00:37:06,010
如果你做空该股票而它表现良好

953
00:37:06,010 --> 00:37:08,938
你很可能陷入逼空行情

954
00:37:09,579 --> 00:37:13,179
我认为这真的带我们进入尾声

955
00:37:13,179 --> 00:37:14,570
我要说

956
00:37:14,570 --> 00:37:18,849
我经常在这些网络研讨会的文章之外

957
00:37:18,849 --> 00:37:19,329
嗯

958
00:37:19,329 --> 00:37:23,159
人们参与四季度投资有哪些方式

959
00:37:23,159 --> 00:37:26,278
我将快速回顾两款产品

960
00:37:26,278 --> 00:37:28,378
一款是专业量化投资组合

961
00:37:28,378 --> 00:37:30,059
另一款是阿尔法精选

962
00:37:30,059 --> 00:37:30,559
嗯

963
00:37:30,559 --> 00:37:31,918
阿尔法精选已推出

964
00:37:31,918 --> 00:37:35,150
已有三年半时间了

965
00:37:35,150 --> 00:37:36,190
我们的操作是

966
00:37:36,190 --> 00:37:41,278
每月发送两封邮件，推荐两位量化强买标的

967
00:37:41,278 --> 00:37:44,219
并且该产品的表现非常出色

968
00:37:44,219 --> 00:37:46,380
你可以看到自成立以来

969
00:37:46,380 --> 00:37:47,699
实际上这是呃

970
00:37:47,699 --> 00:37:48,800
一年期回报率

971
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:49,260
呃

972
00:37:49,260 --> 00:37:50,280
过去五十周

973
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,300
阿尔法精选上涨了76%，相比标普指数

974
00:37:54,300 --> 00:37:55,920
标普500上涨了200%

975
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:56,320
呃

976
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:56,880
自成立以来

977
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:57,719
涨幅高达

978
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,610
相比标普指数增长了三倍

979
00:38:00,610 --> 00:38:02,929
同期上涨约50%

980
00:38:02,929 --> 00:38:03,530
呃

981
00:38:03,530 --> 00:38:07,489
无论是回溯三年半还是过去52周

982
00:38:07,489 --> 00:38:10,150
Alpha Picks再次表现卓越

983
00:38:10,150 --> 00:38:12,210
我们关注前两名推荐标的

984
00:38:12,210 --> 00:38:14,469
我们在交易日发送邮件

985
00:38:14,469 --> 00:38:17,070
最接近月初和月中十五日

986
00:38:17,070 --> 00:38:19,400
通常只有两到三笔交易

987
00:38:20,519 --> 00:38:24,360
我们调查了我们的alpha精选客户，他们实际上表示希望获得更多想法

988
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,820
因此我们推出了专业量化投资组合

989
00:38:26,820 --> 00:38:27,760
去年六月

990
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:32,460
专业投资组合自去年六月以来上涨了34%，相比标普指数

991
00:38:32,460 --> 00:38:33,920
五百点上涨11点

992
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:34,179
九

993
00:38:34,179 --> 00:38:35,829
同期涨幅达到3%

994
00:38:35,829 --> 00:38:38,630
并且每周都会反弹

995
00:38:38,630 --> 00:38:40,329
因此这是一个固定投资组合

996
00:38:40,329 --> 00:38:42,750
而不是每月仅添加两个新想法

997
00:38:42,750 --> 00:38:44,210
我们有一个固定的投资组合

998
00:38:44,210 --> 00:38:46,010
并且每周都会重新平衡

999
00:38:46,010 --> 00:38:47,469
通常在每周进行一次

1000
00:38:47,469 --> 00:38:49,750
每周会有两到三笔新交易

1001
00:38:49,750 --> 00:38:52,210
嗯，这表现相当不错

1002
00:38:52,210 --> 00:38:53,590
我们发现阿尔法机会

1003
00:38:53,590 --> 00:38:54,170
嗯

1004
00:38:54,170 --> 00:38:56,929
我们在参数设置上稍作调整

1005
00:38:56,929 --> 00:38:59,429
因为我们是为长期投资者设计的

1006
00:38:59,429 --> 00:38:59,949
嗯

1007
00:38:59,949 --> 00:39:02,409
市值必须超过五亿美元

1008
00:39:02,409 --> 00:39:04,510
股票不得低于十美元交易

1009
00:39:04,510 --> 00:39:05,070
呃

1010
00:39:05,070 --> 00:39:06,190
在专业组合中

1011
00:39:06,190 --> 00:39:07,760
风险稍高一些

1012
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:08,320
呃

1013
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,179
我们通过ADR筛选全球股票

1014
00:39:11,179 --> 00:39:13,139
没有市值限制

1015
00:39:13,139 --> 00:39:15,590
也没有最低股价要求

1016
00:39:15,590 --> 00:39:17,849
因此承担更多风险

1017
00:39:17,849 --> 00:39:19,789
但回报率更高

1018
00:39:19,789 --> 00:39:20,469
我们拭目以待

1019
00:39:20,469 --> 00:39:21,110
呃

1020
00:39:21,110 --> 00:39:23,769
两款产品表现都非常出色

1021
00:39:23,769 --> 00:39:26,550
我认为这就是全部内容

1022
00:39:26,550 --> 00:39:27,050
所以

1023
00:39:27,050 --> 00:39:27,739
嗯

1024
00:39:27,739 --> 00:39:29,159
大家有什么问题吗

1025
00:39:29,159 --> 00:39:29,920
是的

1026
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:30,460
我们即将

1027
00:39:30,460 --> 00:39:31,599
我们将进入问答环节

1028
00:39:31,599 --> 00:39:32,019
我的意思是

1029
00:39:32,019 --> 00:39:32,260
史蒂夫

1030
00:39:32,260 --> 00:39:32,579
我知道

1031
00:39:32,579 --> 00:39:35,360
我个人对戴尔科技感到惊讶

1032
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:36,719
当我看到今天这份名单时

1033
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:37,199
我当时心想

1034
00:39:37,199 --> 00:39:38,000
你在开玩笑吧

1035
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:39,099
人人都知道戴尔

1036
00:39:39,099 --> 00:39:39,739
这些其他公司

1037
00:39:39,739 --> 00:39:39,980
我心想

1038
00:39:39,980 --> 00:39:40,360
哦对啊

1039
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:41,139
没有像这样的名字

1040
00:39:41,139 --> 00:39:41,420
我知道

1041
00:39:41,420 --> 00:39:42,980
他们的空头持仓可能高低不一

1042
00:39:42,980 --> 00:39:44,199
不管怎样

1043
00:39:44,199 --> 00:39:45,528
这一点让我很意外

1044
00:39:45,528 --> 00:39:47,449
在深入之前各位

1045
00:39:47,449 --> 00:39:48,728
如果还没去请查看

1046
00:39:48,728 --> 00:39:49,248
阿尔法精选

1047
00:39:49,248 --> 00:39:49,588
出去

1048
00:39:49,588 --> 00:39:50,068
查看

1049
00:39:50,068 --> 00:39:51,289
专业量化投资组合

1050
00:39:51,289 --> 00:39:52,449
链接在聊天区

1051
00:39:52,449 --> 00:39:55,130
链接也出现在视频下方

1052
00:39:55,130 --> 00:39:56,369
嗯，正如史蒂夫提到的

1053
00:39:56,369 --> 00:39:56,730
我的意思是

1054
00:39:56,730 --> 00:39:56,929
他的

1055
00:39:56,929 --> 00:39:58,510
他的团队对此了如指掌

1056
00:39:58,510 --> 00:40:00,070
结果不言而喻

1057
00:40:00,070 --> 00:40:01,380
这才是最棒的地方

1058
00:40:01,380 --> 00:40:04,400
这让我们交流起来更轻松

1059
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:05,360
如果你有优质产品

1060
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,340
人们容易看到其价值并获得帮助

1061
00:40:08,340 --> 00:40:10,710
所以我强烈建议大家去查看

1062
00:40:10,710 --> 00:40:11,510
嗯，史蒂夫

1063
00:40:11,510 --> 00:40:14,809
我觉得早该在演示中提到

1064
00:40:14,809 --> 00:40:16,050
这确实是个错失的机会

1065
00:40:16,050 --> 00:40:16,949
但我们仍需提及

1066
00:40:16,949 --> 00:40:19,469
现在有一个问题提到

1067
00:40:19,469 --> 00:40:20,170
如何

1068
00:40:20,170 --> 00:40:20,590
如何

1069
00:40:20,590 --> 00:40:21,969
短挤效应是如何运作的

1070
00:40:21,969 --> 00:40:26,889
请解释市场动态中的基本概念

1071
00:40:26,889 --> 00:40:28,969
当发布财报时

1072
00:40:28,969 --> 00:40:30,789
我们看到价格飙升

1073
00:40:30,789 --> 00:40:33,469
为什么这是合理的

1074
00:40:33,469 --> 00:40:38,789
通常需要熟悉做空对冲基金的概念

1075
00:40:38,789 --> 00:40:39,429
嗯

1076
00:40:39,429 --> 00:40:41,030
通常做空股票

1077
00:40:41,030 --> 00:40:44,110
他们会借入股票

1078
00:40:44,110 --> 00:40:44,650
嗯

1079
00:40:44,650 --> 00:40:46,369
从持有股票的人手中

1080
00:40:46,369 --> 00:40:47,789
当借入股票后

1081
00:40:47,789 --> 00:40:49,190
立即卖出

1082
00:40:49,190 --> 00:40:49,869
呃

1083
00:40:49,869 --> 00:40:51,809
这一过程称为做空

1084
00:40:51,809 --> 00:40:54,818
这反映了空头持仓量

1085
00:40:54,818 --> 00:40:56,759
举例来说

1086
00:40:56,759 --> 00:40:58,358
查看第一个股票

1087
00:40:58,358 --> 00:40:59,418
动量控股

1088
00:40:59,418 --> 00:41:01,269
进入空头持仓列

1089
00:41:01,269 --> 00:41:04,590
可见15%的股份被做空

1090
00:41:04,590 --> 00:41:06,190
这比例相当高

1091
00:41:06,190 --> 00:41:09,219
若下探至易企

1092
00:41:09,219 --> 00:41:12,699
可见20%的流通股被做空

1093
00:41:12,699 --> 00:41:18,250
这意味着对冲基金借入了20%

1094
00:41:18,250 --> 00:41:19,250
准确来说

1095
00:41:19,250 --> 00:41:19,849
21%

1096
00:41:19,849 --> 00:41:20,190
点六

1097
00:41:20,190 --> 00:41:22,630
他们禁止的股票中有百分之二

1098
00:41:22,630 --> 00:41:24,469
他们已经做空了这些股票

1099
00:41:24,469 --> 00:41:25,070
现在

1100
00:41:25,070 --> 00:41:26,710
股价下跌了

1101
00:41:26,710 --> 00:41:29,269
这对对冲基金来说效果很好

1102
00:41:29,269 --> 00:41:32,030
因为他们最初借入股票时

1103
00:41:32,030 --> 00:41:33,269
立即卖出

1104
00:41:33,269 --> 00:41:34,710
仍然是同样的概念

1105
00:41:34,710 --> 00:41:37,010
本质上是低价买入高价卖出

1106
00:41:37,010 --> 00:41:38,469
他们以高价卖出

1107
00:41:38,469 --> 00:41:41,860
然后希望以更低价格买回

1108
00:41:42,139 --> 00:41:47,199
但空头挤压是公司表现良好的情况

1109
00:41:47,199 --> 00:41:49,239
股价并未下跌

1110
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:50,860
反而开始上涨

1111
00:41:50,860 --> 00:41:52,659
如果你是做空股票的对冲基金

1112
00:41:52,659 --> 00:41:56,960
当股价开始上涨时

1113
00:41:57,199 --> 00:41:59,239
会让你陷入困境

1114
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:03,829
而覆盖仓位会变得困难

1115
00:42:03,829 --> 00:42:07,420
通常需要几天时间

1116
00:42:07,420 --> 00:42:07,940
嗯

1117
00:42:07,940 --> 00:42:09,579
即使是小市值股票

1118
00:42:09,579 --> 00:42:10,230
嗯

1119
00:42:10,230 --> 00:42:15,389
可能需要数天才能补回空仓

1120
00:42:15,389 --> 00:42:18,809
这就是所谓的空头挤压

1121
00:42:18,809 --> 00:42:19,969
当他们处于这种仓位时

1122
00:42:19,969 --> 00:42:23,130
无法归还借入的股票

1123
00:42:24,449 --> 00:42:26,028
必须买入平仓

1124
00:42:26,028 --> 00:42:29,590
这就是挤压效应，非常痛苦

1125
00:42:29,590 --> 00:42:30,369
你作为对冲基金

1126
00:42:30,369 --> 00:42:33,289
如果你是做多游戏驿站的对冲基金

1127
00:42:33,289 --> 00:42:34,110
你会哭喊

1128
00:42:34,110 --> 00:42:36,570
或者做空的人可能丢掉工作

1129
00:42:36,570 --> 00:42:37,358
那个止损点

1130
00:42:37,358 --> 00:42:40,838
嗯可能同样发生在许多股票身上

1131
00:42:40,838 --> 00:42:42,940
正如我们强调的公司基本面

1132
00:42:42,940 --> 00:42:45,500
大多数估值框架都很有吸引力

1133
00:42:45,500 --> 00:42:48,159
这些公司的增长前景吸引人

1134
00:42:48,159 --> 00:42:50,289
盈利能力相当稳定

1135
00:42:50,289 --> 00:42:52,610
但从分析师展望来看

1136
00:42:52,610 --> 00:42:56,519
这些公司目前前景积极

1137
00:42:56,519 --> 00:42:57,880
但分析师越来越

1138
00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,199
正如通过每股收益数据所示

1139
00:42:59,199 --> 00:43:02,148
修正评级变得更加乐观

1140
00:43:02,148 --> 00:43:03,349
如果你是做空股票的对冲基金

1141
00:43:03,349 --> 00:43:03,748
那你就处于空头位置

1142
00:43:03,748 --> 00:43:04,528
持有该股票

1143
00:43:04,528 --> 00:43:06,989
我绝对不想处于这种位置

1144
00:43:07,130 --> 00:43:11,170
还需提到的是这可能发生在财报发布时

1145
00:43:11,170 --> 00:43:12,409
可能是并购消息

1146
00:43:12,409 --> 00:43:15,130
或公司自身新闻登上头条

1147
00:43:15,130 --> 00:43:17,260
历史上有很多不同的关键时刻

1148
00:43:17,260 --> 00:43:19,730
我们可以指出短仓挤压被无情收割的时刻

1149
00:43:19,730 --> 00:43:21,309
然后你需要处理补仓的日子

1150
00:43:21,309 --> 00:43:25,690
这也是短仓市场中衡量市场动态的重要指标

1151
00:43:25,690 --> 00:43:29,889
但本质上非常感谢史蒂夫，刚才的宏观解释很棒

1152
00:43:29,889 --> 00:43:30,750
呃，史蒂夫

1153
00:43:30,750 --> 00:43:32,690
你介意再回到你的幻灯片吗

1154
00:43:38,909 --> 00:43:44,199
因为有观众提问这些十大股票具体是哪些

1155
00:43:44,199 --> 00:43:45,519
基于澳洲航空继续说

1156
00:43:45,519 --> 00:43:46,840
等这张幻灯片出现时我会告诉你

1157
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:47,800
我想我大概知道

1158
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:49,929
我完全明白你在说什么

1159
00:43:49,929 --> 00:43:50,210
在那里

1160
00:43:50,210 --> 00:43:51,110
就在那里

1161
00:43:51,110 --> 00:43:53,570
他们在问这十大推荐是哪些

1162
00:43:53,570 --> 00:43:56,880
这些都是我们年初公布的十大推荐标的

1163
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:58,260
在我们举办活动时

1164
00:43:58,260 --> 00:43:59,579
还是说这是十大股票

1165
00:43:59,579 --> 00:44:01,019
这应该是十大股票

1166
00:44:01,019 --> 00:44:02,480
这应该是十大股票

1167
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:07,260
当时在15%回撤时排名靠前的股票

1168
00:44:07,260 --> 00:44:08,748
所以呃

1169
00:44:10,108 --> 00:44:11,108
比如去年

1170
00:44:11,108 --> 00:44:12,849
如果我们回溯到

1171
00:44:12,849 --> 00:44:14,150
四月

1172
00:44:14,150 --> 00:44:15,250
我想你知道

1173
00:44:15,250 --> 00:44:17,090
可能是在三月

1174
00:44:17,090 --> 00:44:20,679
标普500指数实际从高点下跌了15%

1175
00:44:20,679 --> 00:44:21,639
我们正在做的是

1176
00:44:21,639 --> 00:44:25,860
在市场从高点回撤15%时捕捉股票

1177
00:44:25,860 --> 00:44:27,929
就在那个时间点

1178
00:44:30,929 --> 00:44:31,570
嗯

1179
00:44:31,570 --> 00:44:35,650
可能在任何15%回撤发生时

1180
00:44:35,650 --> 00:44:39,980
那时我们筛选出十大股票

1181
00:44:39,980 --> 00:44:41,539
希望这回答了你的问题

1182
00:44:41,539 --> 00:44:42,260
是的

1183
00:44:42,260 --> 00:44:43,480
这解释得很清楚

1184
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:44,099
好的

1185
00:44:44,099 --> 00:44:45,159
看看这里

1186
00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:47,559
我在浏览这些问题

1187
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,539
还有一些很好的反馈

1188
00:44:50,539 --> 00:44:54,119
你在alpha组合中持有股票多久

1189
00:44:54,119 --> 00:44:56,329
这是个好问题

1190
00:44:56,329 --> 00:44:59,190
我们实际持有180天

1191
00:44:59,190 --> 00:45:00,530
我常告诉人们持有

1192
00:45:00,530 --> 00:45:01,920
并不意味着卖出

1193
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:02,440
呃

1194
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:02,880
很多次

1195
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:04,820
该股票将被列为强烈买入

1196
00:45:04,820 --> 00:45:08,159
但估值框架可能会暂时变得昂贵

1197
00:45:08,159 --> 00:45:10,159
因此股票将下调至持有

1198
00:45:10,159 --> 00:45:11,960
嗯，通常在时机成熟时

1199
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:12,820
嗯

1200
00:45:12,820 --> 00:45:16,719
成年人们有机会重新评估自己的观点

1201
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,960
并重新上调盈利预测

1202
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,099
这些股票可能

1203
00:45:20,099 --> 00:45:23,190
随后从持有转为买入或强烈买入

1204
00:45:23,190 --> 00:45:23,650
嗯

1205
00:45:23,650 --> 00:45:26,929
这就是我们建议人们通常不要在持有时卖出的原因

1206
00:45:26,929 --> 00:45:27,829
什么时候卖出

1207
00:45:27,829 --> 00:45:29,610
当方向性评级为强烈时

1208
00:45:29,610 --> 00:45:30,449
卖出或卖出

1209
00:45:30,449 --> 00:45:32,150
这就是该减持股票的信号

1210
00:45:32,150 --> 00:45:32,710
嗯

1211
00:45:32,710 --> 00:45:33,489
我要说

1212
00:45:33,489 --> 00:45:34,289
在阿尔法精选中

1213
00:45:34,289 --> 00:45:35,750
我们有180天的数据

1214
00:45:35,750 --> 00:45:39,329
因为此时股票已连续持有180天

1215
00:45:39,329 --> 00:45:41,210
存在更优质的公司

1216
00:45:41,210 --> 00:45:44,239
我们可以找到更好的买入机会

1217
00:45:46,519 --> 00:45:47,199
好的

1218
00:45:47,199 --> 00:45:51,039
那么关于Seeking Alpha平台的空头持仓问题

1219
00:45:51,039 --> 00:45:53,679
我知道你非常熟悉量化市场数据系统

1220
00:45:53,679 --> 00:45:58,349
我们从哪里获取空头持仓数据提供给Seeking Alpha

1221
00:45:58,469 --> 00:45:58,909
嗯

1222
00:45:58,909 --> 00:45:59,690
我们实际从

1223
00:45:59,690 --> 00:45:59,989
嗯

1224
00:45:59,989 --> 00:46:02,090
来自FINRA机构

1225
00:46:02,090 --> 00:46:03,050
这是

1226
00:46:06,750 --> 00:46:07,550
我们从中提取数据

1227
00:46:07,550 --> 00:46:08,510
我们曾从中提取

1228
00:46:08,510 --> 00:46:08,909
嗯

1229
00:46:08,909 --> 00:46:10,889
我相信是标普全球

1230
00:46:10,889 --> 00:46:16,608
但现在我们直接获取信息并会特别标注

1231
00:46:16,608 --> 00:46:17,579
让我

1232
00:46:17,579 --> 00:46:19,820
展示如何查找这些数据

1233
00:46:19,820 --> 00:46:21,239
我将前往任何

1234
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,179
你可以访问任意股票页面

1235
00:46:23,179 --> 00:46:26,710
在股票页面上

1236
00:46:26,710 --> 00:46:30,909
你会看到空头持仓水平并可悬停查看

1237
00:46:30,909 --> 00:46:34,199
有人曾询问过空头持仓问题

1238
00:46:34,199 --> 00:46:36,199
这是流通股的百分比

1239
00:46:36,199 --> 00:46:38,519
Seeking Alpha的优势之一是

1240
00:46:38,519 --> 00:46:41,880
我们为大多数指标提供定义

1241
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,880
并在此展示空头持仓的定义

1242
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:45,360
嗯

1243
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:52,570
首次空头持仓警戒线为15%，数据直接来自RAP Wonderful

1244
00:46:52,570 --> 00:46:53,389
好的

1245
00:46:53,389 --> 00:46:54,809
所以罗素问道

1246
00:46:54,809 --> 00:46:56,889
我想需要澄清一下，这是指空头头寸

1247
00:46:56,889 --> 00:46:58,730
基于总股本数量

1248
00:46:58,730 --> 00:47:00,630
或者是流通股的

1249
00:47:00,630 --> 00:47:01,050
呃

1250
00:47:01,050 --> 00:47:02,829
基于已发行股份总数

1251
00:47:02,829 --> 00:47:04,269
所以我又回到那里

1252
00:47:04,269 --> 00:47:04,849
是的

1253
00:47:04,849 --> 00:47:06,190
具体指已发行股份

1254
00:47:06,190 --> 00:47:07,650
没错

1255
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:13,199
你可以看到，空头头寸是已发行股份中被做空的比例

1256
00:47:13,199 --> 00:47:16,159
但尚未被平仓或了结

1257
00:47:16,159 --> 00:47:18,900
空头头寸是市场情绪的指标

1258
00:47:18,900 --> 00:47:19,539
极高

1259
00:47:19,539 --> 00:47:23,659
空头头寸显示投资者非常悲观

1260
00:47:24,179 --> 00:47:27,199
而且重要的是

1261
00:47:27,199 --> 00:47:28,019
我想展示给你们看

1262
00:47:28,019 --> 00:47:30,179
如果你使用筛选工具

1263
00:47:31,090 --> 00:47:31,489
呃

1264
00:47:31,489 --> 00:47:34,010
前往股票筛选器

1265
00:47:35,619 --> 00:47:36,139
呃

1266
00:47:36,139 --> 00:47:37,579
这是我设置的筛选条件

1267
00:47:37,579 --> 00:47:38,980
但你可以自定义筛选

1268
00:47:38,980 --> 00:47:41,940
当你创建新筛选时

1269
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:47,980
你会看到可以点击的各种选项

1270
00:47:47,980 --> 00:47:48,760
嗯

1271
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,079
你可以选择热门话题

1272
00:47:51,079 --> 00:47:52,820
你可以查看评级

1273
00:47:52,820 --> 00:47:55,760
可以查看四因子评级、交易指标

1274
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:56,920
我们点击交易

1275
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,079
这是价格

1276
00:47:58,079 --> 00:48:02,719
但向下滚动到这里，我们进入风险

1277
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:05,579
当你进入风险选项

1278
00:48:05,579 --> 00:48:07,398
可以选择空头头寸

1279
00:48:07,398 --> 00:48:09,318
可以选择覆盖天数

1280
00:48:09,318 --> 00:48:10,159
嗯

1281
00:48:10,159 --> 00:48:13,878
这些指标可以轻松整合

1282
00:48:13,878 --> 00:48:14,478
正如我说的

1283
00:48:14,478 --> 00:48:15,219
我正在寻找

1284
00:48:15,219 --> 00:48:19,260
想要强买评级且基本面稳健的股票

1285
00:48:19,260 --> 00:48:21,119
这就是筛选条件

1286
00:48:21,119 --> 00:48:23,340
实际上如果我取消这个

1287
00:48:23,340 --> 00:48:30,010
我会展示我的筛选并返回股票筛选器

1288
00:48:30,329 --> 00:48:33,570
这些都是Seeking Alpha的筛选和我的自定义筛选

1289
00:48:33,570 --> 00:48:35,778
当我点击我的筛选

1290
00:48:35,978 --> 00:48:37,659
你会看到我有很多筛选

1291
00:48:37,659 --> 00:48:38,659
我是个筛选爱好者

1292
00:48:38,659 --> 00:48:40,259
同时我也是个组合管理爱好者

1293
00:48:40,259 --> 00:48:43,880
但我提前创建了这些筛选

1294
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:45,000
所以任何时候我想要

1295
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:46,199
我都可以去查看

1296
00:48:46,199 --> 00:48:50,880
这里我们有强烈买入的股票且具备逼空潜力

1297
00:48:51,380 --> 00:48:52,380
看看这个

1298
00:48:52,380 --> 00:48:59,519
共有31只股票出现，短仓兴趣水平较高

1299
00:49:02,750 --> 00:49:07,599
你还可以通过查看来排序

1300
00:49:07,599 --> 00:49:09,360
短仓兴趣量非常容易识别

1301
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,860
所以我点击了短仓兴趣，想要筛选出那些

1302
00:49:12,860 --> 00:49:13,699
高短仓兴趣

1303
00:49:13,699 --> 00:49:14,679
并且被强烈推荐的

1304
00:49:14,679 --> 00:49:16,199
你可以在这里看到这些

1305
00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:18,489
我选中了其中一只

1306
00:49:18,489 --> 00:49:21,250
但你是一家生物制药公司

1307
00:49:21,250 --> 00:49:24,730
我对这个领域不太熟悉，但很喜欢生物制药

1308
00:49:24,730 --> 00:49:26,050
这是排名第一的

1309
00:49:26,050 --> 00:49:26,570
嗯

1310
00:49:26,570 --> 00:49:28,010
基本面强劲

1311
00:49:28,010 --> 00:49:29,489
且短仓兴趣高

1312
00:49:29,489 --> 00:49:32,659
三D系统公司，短仓兴趣为两

1313
00:49:32,659 --> 00:49:34,199
四短仓兴趣

1314
00:49:34,199 --> 00:49:34,800
嗯

1315
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:35,920
这真是个很棒的工具

1316
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:37,739
Seeking Alpha上有许多优质工具

1317
00:49:37,739 --> 00:49:38,599
是的

1318
00:49:38,599 --> 00:49:39,199
太棒了

1319
00:49:39,199 --> 00:49:40,639
已经构建完成

1320
00:49:40,639 --> 00:49:41,119
嗯

1321
00:49:41,119 --> 00:49:44,489
会后又有更多问题需要解答

1322
00:49:44,489 --> 00:49:45,510
大家在问

1323
00:49:45,510 --> 00:49:49,019
如何知道何时卖出这些股票

1324
00:49:49,019 --> 00:49:53,719
何时应该止盈

1325
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,360
何时应该止盈呢

1326
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:57,599
其实我也不确定

1327
00:49:57,599 --> 00:49:58,318
嗯

1328
00:49:58,318 --> 00:50:00,199
你的风险承受能力如何

1329
00:50:00,199 --> 00:50:03,159
这取决于你的资金规模

1330
00:50:03,159 --> 00:50:06,809
以及你的投资组合分散程度

1331
00:50:06,809 --> 00:50:09,550
但通过Qusystem我们提示

1332
00:50:09,550 --> 00:50:12,489
这是一个数据驱动的过程

1333
00:50:12,489 --> 00:50:14,528
我们使用数学模型

1334
00:50:14,528 --> 00:50:21,449
并对比公司数据与其他同行业公司的指标

1335
00:50:21,818 --> 00:50:25,398
我们提供方向性建议

1336
00:50:25,398 --> 00:50:26,619
嗯

1337
00:50:26,900 --> 00:50:28,539
它显示强烈买入

1338
00:50:28,539 --> 00:50:31,369
当你确认持仓后

1339
00:50:31,369 --> 00:50:31,949
股价翻倍

1340
00:50:31,949 --> 00:50:33,550
你可能想部分获利了结

1341
00:50:33,550 --> 00:50:35,789
你可能等待股价上涨一千倍

1342
00:50:35,789 --> 00:50:40,059
我很难给出具体止盈时机的指导

1343
00:50:40,059 --> 00:50:42,840
但再次我们有我们的方向性建议

1344
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:44,309
这些将保持有效

1345
00:50:46,130 --> 00:50:47,210
卖出并强烈建议

1346
00:50:47,210 --> 00:50:48,429
明确卖出

1347
00:50:48,429 --> 00:50:50,510
如果分析师说卖出或强烈卖出

1348
00:50:50,510 --> 00:50:53,778
这正是你不应持有的股票

1349
00:50:54,099 --> 00:50:54,619
是的

1350
00:50:54,619 --> 00:50:55,539
如果你像我一样

1351
00:50:55,539 --> 00:50:56,679
就是夜不能寐的时候

1352
00:50:56,679 --> 00:50:57,998
不断反复思考

1353
00:50:57,998 --> 00:50:58,679
这不行

1354
00:50:58,679 --> 00:50:59,778
不值得熬夜

1355
00:50:59,778 --> 00:51:01,019
嗯 好吧

1356
00:51:01,019 --> 00:51:01,300
太好了

1357
00:51:01,300 --> 00:51:02,260
那我们来看看

1358
00:51:02,260 --> 00:51:04,940
量子系统中是否使用止损

1359
00:51:05,579 --> 00:51:07,340
是否使用止损单

1360
00:51:07,340 --> 00:51:09,139
像止损这样的操作

1361
00:51:09,139 --> 00:51:10,019
呃

1362
00:51:10,019 --> 00:51:11,019
止损用于

1363
00:51:11,019 --> 00:51:11,460
呃

1364
00:51:11,460 --> 00:51:12,519
比如卖出指令

1365
00:51:12,519 --> 00:51:13,239
对的

1366
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:14,099
嗯

1367
00:51:14,500 --> 00:51:16,679
我不使用止损

1368
00:51:16,679 --> 00:51:17,409
嗯

1369
00:51:17,409 --> 00:51:19,730
我测试过止损策略

1370
00:51:19,730 --> 00:51:21,489
发现它们效果很差

1371
00:51:22,650 --> 00:51:25,858
通常会发生触发卖出

1372
00:51:25,858 --> 00:51:27,759
股票可能暂时下跌

1373
00:51:27,759 --> 00:51:30,579
随后几天或几周回升

1374
00:51:30,579 --> 00:51:34,300
回测显示止损

1375
00:51:34,300 --> 00:51:35,980
并不奏效

1376
00:51:37,139 --> 00:51:38,000
好的

1377
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,619
还有一个关于

1378
00:51:39,619 --> 00:51:41,260
量子系统中的Seeking Alpha

1379
00:51:41,260 --> 00:51:45,420
是否提供类似华尔街分析师的价格目标

1380
00:51:45,420 --> 00:51:46,000
是的

1381
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:46,300
没有

1382
00:51:46,300 --> 00:51:47,699
我们不设价格目标

1383
00:51:47,699 --> 00:51:48,280
嗯

1384
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,780
我们认为这些目标很误导

1385
00:51:50,780 --> 00:51:52,648
就像华尔街那样

1386
00:51:52,648 --> 00:51:53,208
嗯

1387
00:51:53,208 --> 00:51:56,168
他们用价格目标让股票显得诱人

1388
00:51:56,168 --> 00:51:58,570
展示潜在上涨空间

1389
00:51:58,570 --> 00:51:59,329
问题在于

1390
00:51:59,329 --> 00:52:00,150
大多数情况下

1391
00:52:00,150 --> 00:52:01,449
一旦达到目标价

1392
00:52:01,449 --> 00:52:03,869
就会调高至新目标

1393
00:52:03,869 --> 00:52:05,409
所以我们所做的就是

1394
00:52:05,409 --> 00:52:08,489
我们分析一家公司并与同类公司进行比较

1395
00:52:08,489 --> 00:52:09,210
嗯

1396
00:52:09,210 --> 00:52:12,190
我们需要研究一家公司的评估框架

1397
00:52:12,190 --> 00:52:13,150
及其增长框架

1398
00:52:13,150 --> 00:52:14,300
以及其盈利能力

1399
00:52:14,300 --> 00:52:15,239
在其当前状态

1400
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:16,940
与同行业其他股票对比

1401
00:52:16,940 --> 00:52:19,840
这能帮助我们判断是否应买入该公司

1402
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:20,519
呃

1403
00:52:20,519 --> 00:52:22,480
我们并不真正相信价格目标

1404
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,239
这些是华尔街机构使用的

1405
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,179
但我认为这些非常误导

1406
00:52:27,179 --> 00:52:29,000
因为公司本身

1407
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:30,380
或整个市场表现良好时

1408
00:52:30,380 --> 00:52:32,300
公司会达到价格目标

1409
00:52:32,300 --> 00:52:34,719
如果未能达到价格目标

1410
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:36,940
说明公司存在问题

1411
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:38,199
好的

1412
00:52:38,199 --> 00:52:38,519
史蒂夫

1413
00:52:38,519 --> 00:52:39,679
这里有一个问题需要回答

1414
00:52:39,679 --> 00:52:41,260
我觉得我们必须问你

1415
00:52:41,260 --> 00:52:42,920
因为我们一直强调透明度

1416
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,610
我们这边完全透明

1417
00:52:44,610 --> 00:52:46,090
问题来自汤姆

1418
00:52:46,090 --> 00:52:48,730
询问阿尔法精选的表现

1419
00:52:48,730 --> 00:52:49,550
今年以来

1420
00:52:49,550 --> 00:52:50,730
你现在是否感到舒适

1421
00:52:50,730 --> 00:52:51,090
分享这个数据

1422
00:52:51,090 --> 00:52:54,119
因为我觉得我们应该

1423
00:52:54,119 --> 00:52:55,659
让我们

1424
00:52:56,260 --> 00:52:58,019
访问我们的平台

1425
00:52:58,019 --> 00:53:00,780
我们将实际点击

1426
00:53:00,780 --> 00:53:02,699
阿尔法精选

1427
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,400
需要跳过所有投资组合

1428
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:08,840
你会看到几个名称

1429
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,599
但需知道如何从中筛选

1430
00:53:11,599 --> 00:53:13,469
我们将稍作调整

1431
00:53:13,469 --> 00:53:14,190
没关系

1432
00:53:14,190 --> 00:53:19,429
这是之前的业绩表现，现在展示最新数据，这是我实际做的

1433
00:53:19,429 --> 00:53:19,510
是

1434
00:53:19,510 --> 00:53:21,829
我已经进入阿尔法精选平台

1435
00:53:21,829 --> 00:53:23,590
这是一个独立平台

1436
00:53:23,590 --> 00:53:25,380
不同于Seeking Alpha Premium

1437
00:53:25,380 --> 00:53:29,380
当你访问平台并点击业绩

1438
00:53:29,380 --> 00:53:29,920
嗯

1439
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:34,420
可以看到自成立以来收益约285%

1440
00:53:34,420 --> 00:53:35,019
确实达到

1441
00:53:35,019 --> 00:53:35,420
呃

1442
00:53:35,420 --> 00:53:37,010
当时上涨约300%

1443
00:53:37,010 --> 00:53:38,929
但许多股票已经回落

1444
00:53:38,929 --> 00:53:42,949
随着市场转向避险资产类别

1445
00:53:42,949 --> 00:53:45,829
自成立以来涨幅达285%

1446
00:53:45,829 --> 00:53:48,110
对比标普500上涨79%

1447
00:53:48,110 --> 00:53:50,108
截至今日观察

1448
00:53:50,548 --> 00:53:52,728
可以看到Alpha Picks上涨5.28%

1449
00:53:52,728 --> 00:53:55,028
对比标普500表现

1450
00:53:55,028 --> 00:53:56,969
而标普500下跌1%

1451
00:53:56,969 --> 00:53:58,559
并非完全如此

1452
00:53:58,559 --> 00:54:00,840
我觉得标普每天都在下跌

1453
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:02,599
稍微多一点

1454
00:54:02,599 --> 00:54:05,059
近期市场波动较大

1455
00:54:05,059 --> 00:54:07,760
但Alpha Picks保持稳定

1456
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:11,659
我认为市场将继续回调

1457
00:54:11,659 --> 00:54:17,630
以CNN恐惧与贪婪指数为例

1458
00:54:17,630 --> 00:54:19,610
正深入极端恐惧状态

1459
00:54:19,610 --> 00:54:24,599
许多Alpha Pick股票和Pro Portfolio股票将遭抛售

1460
00:54:24,599 --> 00:54:26,500
这些股票基本面良好

1461
00:54:26,500 --> 00:54:28,369
人们需要筹集现金

1462
00:54:28,369 --> 00:54:29,650
因此选择抛售股票

1463
00:54:29,650 --> 00:54:30,670
尤其是盈利丰厚的股票

1464
00:54:30,670 --> 00:54:31,949
我表现优异的股票

1465
00:54:31,949 --> 00:54:32,610
嗯

1466
00:54:32,610 --> 00:54:33,130
所以

1467
00:54:33,130 --> 00:54:34,489
我见过太多太多

1468
00:54:34,489 --> 00:54:35,329
你知道的

1469
00:54:35,329 --> 00:54:38,239
回到

1470
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,059
自从我从事量化分析以来

1471
00:54:40,059 --> 00:54:40,860
我一直身处

1472
00:54:40,860 --> 00:54:43,260
在市场中超过三十年

1473
00:54:43,260 --> 00:54:44,800
再次强调

1474
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,039
每当市场陷入混乱

1475
00:54:47,039 --> 00:54:48,449
我的情绪与恐惧

1476
00:54:48,449 --> 00:54:51,309
人们会抛售优质公司

1477
00:54:51,309 --> 00:54:53,469
基本面强劲的公司

1478
00:54:53,469 --> 00:54:54,969
其股价大幅下跌

1479
00:54:54,969 --> 00:54:57,210
这些通常是前期表现优异的股票

1480
00:54:57,210 --> 00:55:00,150
人们会获利了结抛售

1481
00:55:00,150 --> 00:55:01,889
或需要筹集现金

1482
00:55:01,889 --> 00:55:03,949
而这正是机会所在

1483
00:55:03,949 --> 00:55:07,050
我并不意外看到这些股票

1484
00:55:07,050 --> 00:55:11,528
甚至近期推荐的三家公司

1485
00:55:11,608 --> 00:55:13,829
正处于市场回调阶段

1486
00:55:13,829 --> 00:55:18,438
我们转向公用事业和必需消费品及现金

1487
00:55:22,679 --> 00:55:24,259
对比标普500指数

1488
00:55:24,259 --> 00:55:26,639
但我们将发现情绪消退

1489
00:55:26,639 --> 00:55:27,510
恐惧消散

1490
00:55:27,510 --> 00:55:29,349
回归基本面

1491
00:55:29,349 --> 00:55:29,869
嗯

1492
00:55:29,869 --> 00:55:31,889
因此这带来了巨大的买入机会

1493
00:55:33,690 --> 00:55:34,980
因为它们被错误配置了

1494
00:55:34,980 --> 00:55:35,719
呃

1495
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:37,619
市场定价存在偏差

1496
00:55:41,500 --> 00:55:43,710
但当你处于这种回撤行情中

1497
00:55:43,710 --> 00:55:44,110
呃

1498
00:55:44,110 --> 00:55:45,670
它们往往被过度抛售

1499
00:55:45,670 --> 00:55:46,269
而且

1500
00:55:46,269 --> 00:55:50,199
当市场回归基本面时确实存在绝佳机会

1501
00:55:50,519 --> 00:55:51,739
嗯嗯

1502
00:55:51,739 --> 00:55:56,059
过去一年的表现相当出色

1503
00:55:56,219 --> 00:56:01,360
Alpha Picks涨幅73%，而标普下跌21%

1504
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:06,659
过去六个月上涨12%，而标普

1505
00:56:06,659 --> 00:56:07,420
上涨了两

1506
00:56:07,420 --> 00:56:08,400
点八四%

1507
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:14,789
我认为过去四周的市场主要由恐惧驱动

1508
00:56:14,789 --> 00:56:20,360
过去一个月Alpha Picks在四周内表现落后

1509
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,750
正如我之前所说这种情况会发生

1510
00:56:22,750 --> 00:56:26,778
我预计市场回撤将进一步加深

1511
00:56:26,778 --> 00:56:29,338
这些股票可能继续下跌

1512
00:56:29,338 --> 00:56:33,869
这正是绝佳机会因为当它们处于弱势时买入

1513
00:56:33,869 --> 00:56:35,610
然后持有一年

1514
00:56:35,610 --> 00:56:39,478
未来将获得这样的回报

1515
00:56:40,159 --> 00:56:40,838
说得好

1516
00:56:40,838 --> 00:56:42,918
说得好在结束前

1517
00:56:42,918 --> 00:56:44,079
因为我们即将到整点

1518
00:56:44,079 --> 00:56:47,568
今天有很多问题未能解答

1519
00:56:47,568 --> 00:56:49,409
强烈建议大家关注

1520
00:56:49,409 --> 00:56:49,768
斯蒂文

1521
00:56:49,768 --> 00:56:50,969
克雷斯在Seeking Alpha平台

1522
00:56:50,969 --> 00:56:51,829
他有自己的个人资料

1523
00:56:51,829 --> 00:56:54,550
团队持续发布各类市场分析文章

1524
00:56:54,550 --> 00:56:57,650
介绍市场动态和投资思路

1525
00:56:57,650 --> 00:56:58,969
保持信息更新

1526
00:56:58,969 --> 00:56:59,639
你可以

1527
00:56:59,639 --> 00:57:00,920
如果问题未被解答

1528
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:02,239
通过该平台联系他

1529
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:03,239
随时可以联系

1530
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,500
他会后续回复

1531
00:57:05,500 --> 00:57:06,480
嗯斯蒂夫

1532
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:07,760
有个有趣的问题进来

1533
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:08,360
我快速提及

1534
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:08,900
快点亚当

1535
00:57:08,900 --> 00:57:11,639
想知道为何我们把您留在走廊进行网络研讨会

1536
00:57:11,639 --> 00:57:14,188
而不允许进入演播室啊

1537
00:57:14,188 --> 00:57:15,509
我们非常节俭

1538
00:57:15,509 --> 00:57:17,088
不想浪费办公室空间

1539
00:57:17,088 --> 00:57:18,789
所以我留在走廊区域

1540
00:57:18,789 --> 00:57:20,588
将所有资金转入qa系统

1541
00:57:20,588 --> 00:57:24,239
这是我们的操作流程，因此每天开盘前我们都会运行它

1542
00:57:24,239 --> 00:57:25,139
哦好吧

1543
00:57:25,139 --> 00:57:25,760
最后一个问题

1544
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:26,969
实际上alpha选股

1545
00:57:26,969 --> 00:57:27,670
有一个问题

1546
00:57:27,670 --> 00:57:29,630
这里是否仅限股票

1547
00:57:29,630 --> 00:57:30,250
对于

1548
00:57:30,250 --> 00:57:34,360
选取同时符合alpha选股和pcp标准的名称

1549
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:35,139
这些都是股票

1550
00:57:35,139 --> 00:57:37,420
我们不投资etf

1551
00:57:37,420 --> 00:57:40,469
嗯所以啊

1552
00:57:40,469 --> 00:57:41,070
是的

1553
00:57:41,070 --> 00:57:42,250
仅针对有

1554
00:57:42,250 --> 00:57:43,019
你知道的

1555
00:57:43,019 --> 00:57:44,519
止损对我们来说很重要

1556
00:57:44,519 --> 00:57:45,139
所以是的

1557
00:57:45,139 --> 00:57:47,460
我要说我们实际上对etf有评级

1558
00:57:47,460 --> 00:57:48,909
如果你持有etf

1559
00:57:48,909 --> 00:57:49,590
嗯

1560
00:57:49,590 --> 00:57:53,869
你会看到etf有相当多的因素评级和双向推荐

1561
00:57:53,869 --> 00:57:56,269
就这两个产品而言

1562
00:57:56,269 --> 00:57:58,130
全部围绕股票

1563
00:57:58,449 --> 00:57:59,230
完全正确

1564
00:57:59,230 --> 00:57:59,730
好的

1565
00:57:59,730 --> 00:57:59,969
各位

1566
00:57:59,969 --> 00:58:01,010
我们现在结束今天的分享

1567
00:58:01,010 --> 00:58:02,710
感谢大家花一小时与我们交流

1568
00:58:02,710 --> 00:58:04,079
如果你正在观看回放

1569
00:58:04,079 --> 00:58:05,440
也感谢你查看相关内容

1570
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:06,559
点击视频下方的所有链接

1571
00:58:06,559 --> 00:58:07,860
如果你对alpha选股感兴趣

1572
00:58:07,860 --> 00:58:08,880
Pro quint组合

1573
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:09,239
关注

1574
00:58:09,239 --> 00:58:09,880
史蒂夫

1575
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:12,000
获取更多此类信息和想法

1576
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,329
未来几个月我们还会举办更多网络研讨会

1577
00:58:15,329 --> 00:58:18,550
尤其是如果油价波动持续高位

1578
00:58:18,550 --> 00:58:19,389
是宏观层面

1579
00:58:19,389 --> 00:58:21,130
宏观经济事件发展

1580
00:58:21,130 --> 00:58:22,730
以及利率市场动态

1581
00:58:22,730 --> 00:58:24,639
因为这将影响我们的投资组合

1582
00:58:24,639 --> 00:58:27,380
我们希望能继续为您提供价值

1583
00:58:27,380 --> 00:58:28,880
所以各位史蒂夫

1584
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:30,318
再次感谢您的时间

1585
00:58:30,318 --> 00:58:31,918
祝大家本周剩余时间愉快

1586
00:58:31,918 --> 00:58:32,518
还有

1587
00:58:32,518 --> 00:58:33,239
注意安全

1588
00:58:33,239 --> 00:58:34,079
下次网络研讨会再见

1589
00:58:34,079 --> 00:58:34,378
是的

1590
00:58:34,378 --> 00:58:35,179
祝你在市场中好运

1591
00:58:35,179 --> 00:58:36,119
大家

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