1
00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:02,660
猴子还是创业放在第一位的
2
00:00:02,660 --> 00:00:03,988
永远不是赚多少钱
3
00:00:03,988 --> 00:00:05,309
追求多高的回报率
4
00:00:05,309 --> 00:00:06,488
而受风险控制
5
00:00:06,488 --> 00:00:08,708
就你这个时候你要留好现金啊
6
00:00:08,708 --> 00:00:09,388
咱举个例子啊
7
00:00:09,388 --> 00:00:11,439
你看过去的这起8年最惨的
8
00:00:11,439 --> 00:00:13,380
无无无非就是地产嘛
9
00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:15,480
地产地产真的很惨啊
10
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:16,140
无论是恒大
11
00:00:16,140 --> 00:00:17,190
碧桂园啊
12
00:00:17,190 --> 00:00:18,989
万科这种万亿啊
13
00:00:18,989 --> 00:00:20,850
融创这种万亿市值的公司
14
00:00:20,850 --> 00:00:23,309
万亿资产的公司瞬间就归零了
15
00:00:23,309 --> 00:00:24,469
实际上就是资不抵债
16
00:00:24,469 --> 00:00:25,550
你看万科
17
00:00:25,550 --> 00:00:27,989
万科去年我看了看亏了多少
18
00:00:27,989 --> 00:00:28,710
亏了800多亿
19
00:00:28,710 --> 00:00:29,809
将近1000亿啊
20
00:00:29,809 --> 00:00:30,649
什么概念啊
21
00:00:30,649 --> 00:00:32,460
其实万科现在也是属于资不抵债
22
00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:34,619
你说一个万亿公司的呵
23
00:00:34,619 --> 00:00:36,219
一个万亿市值的公司啊
24
00:00:36,219 --> 00:00:38,539
万亿资产的公司还用了一两年的时间
25
00:00:38,539 --> 00:00:39,039
资不抵债
26
00:00:39,039 --> 00:00:39,939
老板锒铛入狱
27
00:00:39,939 --> 00:00:41,259
你说这是什么情景啊
28
00:00:41,259 --> 00:00:41,859
在中国
29
00:00:41,859 --> 00:00:43,420
而整个行业全灭
30
00:00:43,420 --> 00:00:46,640
你看这个地毯里面民营企业能够活下来是谁呀
31
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第一呢就是龙湖地产
32
00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,960
哎你不能说龙湖人家风险控制做的真好
33
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:52,280
然后其次是谁呢
34
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:53,320
去探视野哈
35
00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,079
人家早年呢就跑了啊
36
00:00:55,079 --> 00:00:56,320
一看一看情势不妙啊
37
00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:57,159
立马走人
38
00:00:57,159 --> 00:00:58,159
拜拜啊
39
00:00:58,159 --> 00:00:58,979
还有一个是谁呢
40
00:00:58,979 --> 00:01:02,409
就是就是那个新城啊
41
00:01:02,409 --> 00:01:03,850
新城因为老板呢进监狱了
42
00:01:03,850 --> 00:01:04,930
反而躲过一劫
43
00:01:04,930 --> 00:01:05,969
所以你发现没有哈
44
00:01:05,969 --> 00:01:06,750
在中国啊
45
00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:08,689
其实最难的是不是赚钱
46
00:01:08,689 --> 00:01:09,390
而是守钱
47
00:01:09,390 --> 00:01:12,209
所以中国为啥有一句话叫富不过三代呢
48
00:01:12,209 --> 00:01:13,489
这句话非常有道理啊
49
00:01:13,489 --> 00:01:17,329
就是就是每一代人他都有他让他灭亡的方法
50
00:01:17,329 --> 00:01:18,489
每一代人啊
51
00:01:18,489 --> 00:01:21,680
都有让他这个出问题的这种危机事件啊
52
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,079
比如说你看我创业过程里面
53
00:01:23,079 --> 00:01:24,760
其实我们公司经历过很多危机啊
54
00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,450
到现在只能说还在活着啊
55
00:01:26,450 --> 00:01:27,489
活的也是半死不活
56
00:01:27,489 --> 00:01:28,450
你看我们都不记打啊
57
00:01:28,450 --> 00:01:31,049
你看2010年我们赶上了淘宝爆发
58
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哎那一波的确实来讲收益很好啊
59
00:01:33,430 --> 00:01:36,079
啊一波就差不多就就赚了很多钱
60
00:01:36,079 --> 00:01:39,420
然后到后面呢就是做了这个代理品牌是吧
61
00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:41,599
然后代理品牌手机爆了啊
62
00:01:41,599 --> 00:01:42,480
还是提前发售
63
00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:43,319
要不要爆了
64
00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,140
然后呢做这个净化爆了啊
65
00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:46,879
做这个取暖制冷爆了
66
00:01:46,879 --> 00:01:48,299
当所有东西爆的时候
67
00:01:48,299 --> 00:01:49,459
你大家想一想
68
00:01:49,459 --> 00:01:51,099
如果说一个20多岁啊
69
00:01:51,099 --> 00:01:52,420
不到30岁的人创业
70
00:01:52,420 --> 00:01:54,340
你做十个生意全保啊
71
00:01:54,340 --> 00:01:55,659
那个时候我们做锅
72
00:01:55,659 --> 00:01:56,939
那是我们利润最低
73
00:01:56,939 --> 00:01:58,459
最看不上眼的一个锅
74
00:01:58,459 --> 00:01:59,500
挣100多啊
75
00:01:59,500 --> 00:02:00,920
一年不多做几10万台啊
76
00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:02,739
一个一个品牌啊
77
00:02:02,739 --> 00:02:05,189
做锅的品牌赚个几千万都上不了台面
78
00:02:05,189 --> 00:02:06,829
都觉得领奖的时候觉得太少了
79
00:02:06,829 --> 00:02:08,110
因为你没有过亿的
80
00:02:08,110 --> 00:02:08,990
觉得不行
81
00:02:08,990 --> 00:02:11,400
其实那个时候我们就我那时候还比较理性啊
82
00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,939
觉得哇那这个生意确实来的有点快啊
83
00:02:13,939 --> 00:02:16,219
但是因为我没有特别的奢侈的习惯啊
84
00:02:16,219 --> 00:02:18,740
比如说啊这个豪宅豪宅啊
85
00:02:18,740 --> 00:02:19,960
没有没有那种习惯
86
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,620
但还是老老实实干活
87
00:02:21,620 --> 00:02:23,099
所以呢就没有浪费哈
88
00:02:23,099 --> 00:02:24,199
当然赚了钱之后呢
89
00:02:24,199 --> 00:02:27,159
就想着哎呀我爸生意能不能做的这更稳一点啊
90
00:02:27,159 --> 00:02:28,080
就想着做工厂
91
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,939
然后买一些厂房啊
92
00:02:29,939 --> 00:02:31,680
办公室啊就不用再租了
93
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,319
就当时呢花了很多钱买了这个固定资产啊
94
00:02:34,319 --> 00:02:35,219
无人办公室啊
95
00:02:35,219 --> 00:02:37,919
还是说后来做工厂这个过程里面呢投了很多钱
96
00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:39,780
那这个钱今天来看也是亏的啊
97
00:02:40,819 --> 00:02:43,229
但是最起码的没有把钱用在豪宅啊
98
00:02:43,229 --> 00:02:44,949
那些虚无商表没有价值东西的
99
00:02:44,949 --> 00:02:46,069
你买你买你买了房
100
00:02:46,069 --> 00:02:47,189
你最起码自己用吧
101
00:02:47,189 --> 00:02:48,389
10年差不多也回本了
102
00:02:48,389 --> 00:02:49,530
然后租金也不便宜嘛
103
00:02:49,530 --> 00:02:52,710
算1万公费租了也都自己用了也十几年了
104
00:02:52,710 --> 00:02:55,080
所以实际上呢我们过去做的错误的事
105
00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:56,210
也是赚了钱之后呢
106
00:02:56,210 --> 00:02:57,710
你没有学会投资哈
107
00:02:57,710 --> 00:02:59,629
这个是我过去的一个bug哈
108
00:02:59,629 --> 00:03:00,650
只知道买固定资产
109
00:03:00,650 --> 00:03:01,729
只知道这个啊
110
00:03:01,729 --> 00:03:04,259
在这哼是在这个选固定资产
111
00:03:04,259 --> 00:03:05,539
全往里面转来转去
112
00:03:05,539 --> 00:03:06,060
当然了
113
00:03:06,060 --> 00:03:06,780
你说今天来看
114
00:03:06,780 --> 00:03:08,240
你说后悔吧也无所谓
115
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,620
最起码那些固定产还能租的出去啊
116
00:03:10,620 --> 00:03:12,180
按照当时的这个价格
117
00:03:12,180 --> 00:03:14,080
比如说你花了五六千一平是吧
118
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,800
你租出去一块五啊
119
00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,219
一年的话一平方大概就是20块钱左右吧
120
00:03:18,219 --> 00:03:21,129
然后呢按照五六天还有四个多点的回报是吧
121
00:03:21,129 --> 00:03:22,050
还可以啊
122
00:03:22,050 --> 00:03:23,069
最起码还是现金嘛
123
00:03:23,069 --> 00:03:24,849
但是呢你反过来想啊
124
00:03:24,849 --> 00:03:26,180
如果说你是借债呢
125
00:03:26,180 --> 00:03:27,699
你负债买的对吧
126
00:03:27,699 --> 00:03:29,539
你有可能也是因为房价下跌
127
00:03:29,539 --> 00:03:30,300
资不抵债了
128
00:03:30,300 --> 00:03:31,659
所以兄弟们你要记住哈
129
00:03:31,659 --> 00:03:33,020
就是巴菲特他一直讲啊
130
00:03:33,020 --> 00:03:34,759
不借钱不做空对吧
131
00:03:34,759 --> 00:03:36,379
然后账上趴了3100现金
132
00:03:36,379 --> 00:03:38,699
你今天来看这个老爷子多么经典啊
133
00:03:38,699 --> 00:03:39,939
3100现金啊
134
00:03:39,939 --> 00:03:41,360
人家拿着现金去干嘛呢
135
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:42,159
去买美债
136
00:03:42,159 --> 00:03:43,039
啥也不动
137
00:03:43,039 --> 00:03:46,300
其实巴菲特在过去的35年里面
138
00:03:46,300 --> 00:03:48,539
你说他买的消费股哪个不是腰斩呀
139
00:03:48,539 --> 00:03:51,979
你就看看这个星座品牌是不是200多买
140
00:03:51,979 --> 00:03:53,349
现在是145
141
00:03:53,349 --> 00:03:54,550
你再看泡啊
142
00:03:54,550 --> 00:03:55,750
还看披萨
143
00:03:55,750 --> 00:03:56,509
再看
144
00:03:56,509 --> 00:03:59,490
然后威瑞森再看这个世贸石油
145
00:03:59,490 --> 00:04:01,069
都是跌了四五十%
146
00:04:01,069 --> 00:04:04,179
其实他为什么都是小幅出手呢
147
00:04:04,179 --> 00:04:06,500
人家就等着这个大幅加仓
148
00:04:06,500 --> 00:04:07,759
你看这一波啊
149
00:04:07,759 --> 00:04:09,939
美国在这个又又有点出问题是吧
150
00:04:09,939 --> 00:04:10,780
又开始下跌
151
00:04:10,780 --> 00:04:13,360
但这个时候巴菲特就开始陆续出手了
152
00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,080
3000多亿现金对吧
153
00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,180
就是在他去世之前再干上一票
154
00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:20,519
哈哈各位他的一世英名呢
155
00:04:20,519 --> 00:04:22,300
就111直可以带到坟墓了
156
00:04:22,300 --> 00:04:22,740
说真的
157
00:04:22,740 --> 00:04:25,410
你那个时候你都佩服巴菲特这种定力是吧
158
00:04:25,410 --> 00:04:28,110
连续45年连续下跌的情况下
159
00:04:28,110 --> 00:04:30,009
拿着现金一点都不动是吧
160
00:04:30,009 --> 00:04:32,379
看着看着英伟达翻了十倍啊
161
00:04:32,379 --> 00:04:34,139
看着这今年的这个是吧
162
00:04:34,139 --> 00:04:35,800
这个闪迪翻了20倍啊
163
00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:37,839
这个啊细节啊
164
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,689
然后呢西部数据啊
165
00:04:40,689 --> 00:04:41,870
然后对吧
166
00:04:41,870 --> 00:04:43,810
任何一个做内存的啊
167
00:04:43,810 --> 00:04:45,529
包括镁光啊是吧
168
00:04:45,529 --> 00:04:47,459
海力士呀都这样都翻倍
169
00:04:47,459 --> 00:04:49,040
但是人家巴菲特人家一点都不动
170
00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,199
对这个才是真的定力啊
171
00:04:51,199 --> 00:04:52,720
啊其实巴菲特说的很对啊
172
00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,899
就是如果我知道我会死在哪里
173
00:04:54,899 --> 00:04:56,038
我永远不去那个地方
174
00:04:56,038 --> 00:04:57,980
实际上我到今天我想起这句话
175
00:04:57,980 --> 00:05:00,620
我都觉得真的每个人都要去看看巴菲特
176
00:05:00,620 --> 00:05:02,839
每个人都要看看这个现金流逻辑对吧
177
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,620
你看老段也是老段定力吧
178
00:05:04,620 --> 00:05:07,028
比如说茅台连跌两年代了5年哈
179
00:05:07,028 --> 00:05:09,048
就最近几年才开始有苗头了
180
00:05:09,048 --> 00:05:10,209
实际上你发现没有啊
181
00:05:10,209 --> 00:05:11,699
做投资的难度是什么呢
182
00:05:11,699 --> 00:05:13,759
它并不是说你知道什么
183
00:05:13,759 --> 00:05:17,149
而是你能不能做到一个公司连续四到5年下跌
184
00:05:17,149 --> 00:05:18,329
你能不能受得了
185
00:05:18,329 --> 00:05:19,870
各位你怎么能受得了
186
00:05:19,870 --> 00:05:21,629
首先这个钱必须是闲钱对吧
187
00:05:21,629 --> 00:05:22,949
你35年不用啊
188
00:05:22,949 --> 00:05:24,680
第二个呢就是对吧
189
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,560
你腰斩的时候你也不害怕是吧
190
00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,240
那第三个呢就是对吧
191
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,279
你得有一个来自于投资之外的收入哈
192
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,879
最起码呢保证你啊就是在这个国家交前
193
00:05:34,879 --> 00:05:36,399
你还能吃上饭对吧
194
00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:37,360
你说创业呢
195
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,000
你你你不能说举债
196
00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,000
你看今年我说的最多的就是举债的啊
197
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:42,819
大部分都是赚了钱之后呢
198
00:05:42,819 --> 00:05:44,759
跟我这个201516年一样
199
00:05:44,759 --> 00:05:46,129
拼命投固定资产
200
00:05:46,129 --> 00:05:48,430
只是我是2015年投股定资产
201
00:05:48,430 --> 00:05:50,009
但是很多人是2019年
202
00:05:50,009 --> 00:05:51,769
20年投过定资产对吧
203
00:05:51,769 --> 00:05:54,209
我2015年我的固定资产的平均成本比较
204
00:05:54,209 --> 00:05:56,149
房子吧都是四五千五六千
205
00:05:56,149 --> 00:05:58,319
但是呢2020年是2万3万
206
00:05:58,319 --> 00:05:59,399
它成本不一样
207
00:05:59,399 --> 00:06:02,470
它所以说我现在都跌回这个成本价了
208
00:06:02,470 --> 00:06:04,449
简单的房子应该就到201415年了吧
209
00:06:04,449 --> 00:06:06,829
但是问题是我们的成本很低
210
00:06:06,829 --> 00:06:09,790
所以呢其实我们也没有负债嘛
211
00:06:09,790 --> 00:06:11,629
所以没什么压力是吧
212
00:06:11,629 --> 00:06:13,110
在座的都在出租啊
213
00:06:13,110 --> 00:06:14,189
还有现金流啊
214
00:06:14,189 --> 00:06:15,269
平时呢也比较节俭
215
00:06:15,269 --> 00:06:16,509
所以呢现在没有压力
216
00:06:16,509 --> 00:06:17,990
这一波呢这个回调啊
217
00:06:17,990 --> 00:06:19,110
包括暴跌呢
218
00:06:19,110 --> 00:06:20,129
我们还有闲情加仓
219
00:06:20,129 --> 00:06:22,889
所以实际上你看今年哈我们的收益啊
220
00:06:22,889 --> 00:06:24,149
A股的收益还是不错的
221
00:06:24,149 --> 00:06:24,949
这茅台啊
222
00:06:24,949 --> 00:06:28,338
包括其他的配的一些抄底的资产都在涨吗
223
00:06:28,338 --> 00:06:30,819
那美股呢因为也是一个好分散配置
224
00:06:30,819 --> 00:06:31,978
所以美股的玩法呢
225
00:06:31,978 --> 00:06:33,658
其实就是我当时讲了三个逻辑
226
00:06:33,658 --> 00:06:35,490
第一个呢就是进攻有AI啊
227
00:06:35,490 --> 00:06:36,209
存储是吧
228
00:06:36,209 --> 00:06:38,250
第二个呢就是啊防守啊
229
00:06:38,250 --> 00:06:39,848
就是这个高古希是吧
230
00:06:39,848 --> 00:06:41,009
我们买的那个运营商啊
231
00:06:41,009 --> 00:06:43,129
和包括一些高股息的公司呢
232
00:06:43,129 --> 00:06:46,249
防守啊年化8%到十的那种分红分红股
233
00:06:46,249 --> 00:06:48,079
然后第三个呢就是是吧
234
00:06:48,079 --> 00:06:48,920
就是消费啊
235
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,500
穿越牛熊子是吧
236
00:06:50,500 --> 00:06:51,500
压舱底了
237
00:06:51,500 --> 00:06:53,949
实际上我们整个配置策略呢
238
00:06:53,949 --> 00:06:56,149
就按照我去年年底的想法呢
239
00:06:56,149 --> 00:06:58,050
其实今年啊科技类的下滑
240
00:06:58,050 --> 00:07:01,160
但是呢但是呢这个啊公共事业高股息啊
241
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:02,379
消费是在上涨的
242
00:07:02,379 --> 00:07:04,279
所以今年呢其实收益也是不错的
243
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,410
至少呢在这种下跌过程里面呢
244
00:07:06,410 --> 00:07:07,769
你有其他的这种风险控制
245
00:07:07,769 --> 00:07:08,970
还有一个呢就是仓位
246
00:07:08,970 --> 00:07:11,410
实际上仓位管理呢这个是我必须给大家讲的啊
247
00:07:11,410 --> 00:07:13,810
就是很多时候我们的高收益来自于哈
248
00:07:13,810 --> 00:07:16,269
像这个风险就是摆动严重低估哈
249
00:07:16,269 --> 00:07:18,050
然后呢公司被受伤
250
00:07:18,050 --> 00:07:19,970
但是被被被公司被偷了开呢
251
00:07:19,970 --> 00:07:21,850
他还有另外一层的问题
252
00:07:21,850 --> 00:07:22,889
就是情绪对吧
253
00:07:22,889 --> 00:07:25,348
就是公司错杀完之后情绪杀啊
254
00:07:25,348 --> 00:07:26,149
情绪杀完之后
255
00:07:26,149 --> 00:07:29,749
这个啊就是这个基本上来讲就是横盘啊
256
00:07:29,749 --> 00:07:31,649
或者说长时间的不涨哈
257
00:07:31,649 --> 00:07:35,490
公司这边啊没有什么能力去啊去修复
258
00:07:35,490 --> 00:07:39,920
这个过程里面最难熬的是你能不能在资金差啊
259
00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,408
就是负债这种杠杆杀完哈
260
00:07:42,408 --> 00:07:43,329
断网杀完
261
00:07:43,329 --> 00:07:44,408
公司杀完啊
262
00:07:44,408 --> 00:07:46,809
情绪杀完你依然还有对吧
263
00:07:46,809 --> 00:07:48,339
加仓或者说是吧
264
00:07:48,339 --> 00:07:49,220
超越八点能力
265
00:07:49,220 --> 00:07:52,019
这个才是合格投资人必须想明白的
266
00:07:52,019 --> 00:07:52,939
实际上
267
00:07:52,939 --> 00:07:56,060
新的投资人没有经历过这种越大的腰斩的啊
268
00:07:56,060 --> 00:07:57,839
没有经历过这种一折的
269
00:07:57,839 --> 00:07:59,100
没有经历过绝望的
270
00:07:59,100 --> 00:08:00,300
你是很难理解的
271
00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:02,810
因为我在上海投资的这3年多
272
00:08:02,810 --> 00:08:04,610
其实真正的股民绝望呢
273
00:08:04,610 --> 00:08:07,290
是2023年到2024年初
274
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:10,790
就当时是中概互联网那个情绪上
275
00:08:10,790 --> 00:08:12,949
我给大家讲那个时候惨烈到什么程度啊
276
00:08:12,949 --> 00:08:15,500
快手是从四百四一路跌到了36
277
00:08:15,500 --> 00:08:17,100
大家想啊一折不到啊
278
00:08:17,100 --> 00:08:19,540
美团是从400多一路跌到了多少呢
279
00:08:19,540 --> 00:08:20,699
60啊
280
00:08:20,699 --> 00:08:24,680
1.5折拼多多是从200 422百三
281
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,310
最低的时候就到了二十七一折
282
00:08:28,310 --> 00:08:30,149
对阿里巴巴呢是从300天
283
00:08:30,149 --> 00:08:33,350
最低跌到了50~60两折
284
00:08:33,350 --> 00:08:35,309
腾讯呢是从750啊
285
00:08:35,309 --> 00:08:38,460
最低跌到了差不多198对了
286
00:08:38,460 --> 00:08:39,730
前天还有人问我
287
00:08:39,730 --> 00:08:41,529
当时腾讯跌到198的时候
288
00:08:41,529 --> 00:08:43,450
连腾讯的高管都熬不住了
289
00:08:43,450 --> 00:08:45,730
都问我要不要都不要换股
290
00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:46,529
这是真的啊
291
00:08:46,529 --> 00:08:47,330
这是真实案例啊
292
00:08:47,330 --> 00:08:50,289
腾讯的高管看到老板说
293
00:08:50,289 --> 00:08:53,129
看了看到老板马化腾到中间了啊
294
00:08:53,129 --> 00:08:55,710
就是整个公司的好像都是死气沉沉
295
00:08:55,710 --> 00:08:56,970
都躺平了啊
296
00:08:56,970 --> 00:09:00,429
就马化腾呢还在想着去奋斗哈
297
00:09:00,429 --> 00:09:01,110
要改变
298
00:09:01,110 --> 00:09:02,570
各位那时候问我
299
00:09:02,570 --> 00:09:04,210
我们腾讯是不是真的不行了哈
300
00:09:04,210 --> 00:09:05,330
我腾讯有啥问题啊
301
00:09:05,330 --> 00:09:06,580
200块对吧
302
00:09:06,580 --> 00:09:07,340
你400块敢买
303
00:09:07,340 --> 00:09:08,460
为什么200块不敢买呢
304
00:09:08,460 --> 00:09:11,019
当时我还专门加了四排鼓励他啊
305
00:09:11,019 --> 00:09:12,539
昨天还有兄弟问我说
306
00:09:12,539 --> 00:09:13,840
为什么有勇气鼓励他呢
307
00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,120
因为很简单嘛
308
00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,399
如果说躺着赚钱的都不行了
309
00:09:17,399 --> 00:09:19,700
那个像我们这种跪着赚钱的更不行了对吧
310
00:09:19,700 --> 00:09:21,039
那那我还做它干嘛呢
311
00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:21,720
其实来讲
312
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,240
你如果给你200块钱
313
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:23,740
200块钱
314
00:09:23,740 --> 00:09:24,580
腾讯啊
315
00:09:24,580 --> 00:09:25,620
你能按照分红
316
00:09:25,620 --> 00:09:27,240
按照回购实现回本
317
00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:28,539
那我们还做企业干嘛
318
00:09:28,539 --> 00:09:29,259
你做个企业
319
00:09:29,259 --> 00:09:30,580
你现在都是不挣钱的对吧
320
00:09:30,580 --> 00:09:31,679
你别说时间回本了
321
00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,019
你能不亏就不错了
322
00:09:33,019 --> 00:09:34,700
所以实际上你是个创业者
323
00:09:34,700 --> 00:09:35,539
你你会理解
324
00:09:35,539 --> 00:09:38,038
时间回本是一个多么牛逼的确定性答案
325
00:09:38,038 --> 00:09:40,219
但如果说你是没有创过业啊
326
00:09:40,219 --> 00:09:43,759
或者说不了解这种哈这种这种投资穿越难的人
327
00:09:43,759 --> 00:09:45,139
你是理解不了这句话的
328
00:09:45,139 --> 00:09:47,259
所以各位呢你在任何投资的时候呢
329
00:09:47,259 --> 00:09:49,200
你不要盲目乐观对吧
330
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:50,799
你先把最坏的结果想好
331
00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:54,100
就假设哈这个公司你所有的都想到了
332
00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:56,399
但是有一些风险你不可控啊
333
00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:58,100
导致你的这个资金腰斩
334
00:09:58,100 --> 00:09:59,039
你该怎么办
335
00:09:59,039 --> 00:10:01,200
如果你能把这句话想清楚啊
336
00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:02,100
你再投资
337
00:10:02,100 --> 00:10:03,419
你再看待市场波动
338
00:10:03,419 --> 00:10:05,700
简直就是心平心静
339
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:06,379
如水是吧
340
00:10:06,379 --> 00:10:06,980
毫无波澜
341
00:10:06,980 --> 00:10:08,419
就像我现在似的对吧
342
00:10:08,419 --> 00:10:11,370
随便跌怎么跌都在我们的预料之中
343
00:10:11,370 --> 00:10:11,929
怎么跌
344
00:10:11,929 --> 00:10:12,830
我们都很开心
345
00:10:12,830 --> 00:10:14,730
因为你可以同样的钱买更多的股票
346
00:10:14,730 --> 00:10:16,450
你什么时候能做到这种心态
347
00:10:16,450 --> 00:10:19,328
我觉得巴菲特那种心态就跳着舞
348
00:10:19,328 --> 00:10:20,779
上班的心态你就来了