提前实现2024目标，却感觉有点不踏实？

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由于2023科技股走强

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特别是英伟达的爆发

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我的场内投资账户

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整体实现133%的回报

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参考主题2023个人投资总结与复盘

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因此我对2024的收益预期放的很平

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去年年底时

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心里的一个预期目标是15%左右

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但没有想到2024年只过了一个月

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就基本实现了这个目标

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这让我后续有些迷茫

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甚至有点不踏实

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因为我知道好事来得太快就未必是好事

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在这种情况下

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就需要为下一步的计划多做一些新思考

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我的结论是需要进一步平衡持仓结构

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下一步我将继续减少杠杆类ETF的比重

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并换入确定性高的美债资产

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具体逻辑请参考3年赚51%

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个确定性极高的投资策略

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在1月29日

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我卖了一点点TQQQ

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并换入美债资产TLT和TMF

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从之后的表现看

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这次置换不赚不赔

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在这次置换后

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一开始QQQ下跌

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RTLT连续大涨

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但周五美债因为强劲非农而大跌

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美股大涨

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实际上这种短期的得失并不重要

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重要的是我们投资的原则

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因为它决定了长期的收益率

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和我们坚定的投资逻辑

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毕竟没有永远上涨和永远下跌的市场

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只有我们稳定不变的原则

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巴菲特在70年代初

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美国漂亮50狂涨阶段曾严重踏空行情

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但他那个时候说

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收益率和自己的原则之间

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他会选择原则

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我非常认同他的观点

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所以即使TLT跑不赢一些公司的股票

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或没跑赢QQQ

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我自己仍然会继续增持

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因为这符合我自身风险偏好下的投资原则

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我不需要冒更大的风险去抢2023年那样

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一年一倍多的回报

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而更加倾向于稳健和长期的净值增长

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更何况我自己没有踏空任何行情

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只是均衡化资产配置而已

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因此我坚信自己做的是对的

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过去一周是美国市场真正的超级肉

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因为除英伟达外的

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其他几乎所有科网巨头都已经公布了财报

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这些财报也让我内心多了一些安全感和确定性

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财报点评一微软

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微软2023年四季度

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营收620.20亿美元

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同比加18%

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净利润218.7亿美元

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同比加33%

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均超出市场预期

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微软营收中最值得关注的是智能云部门的收入

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这一季度为259亿美元

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同比增长20%

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其中error增长30%

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保持高速成长

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目前云服务生产力和业务流程

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个人电脑三大块业务股均保持稳健增长

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其中云服务已经成为微软第一大营收来源

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微软的营收构成也是所有科技巨头中最健康的

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因为它多样化

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不像苹果依赖IPHONE

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谷歌脸书依赖广告

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而且多样化的每一块中

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微软都有非常深厚的护城河

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我认为这也是微软的估值高于苹果

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谷歌脸书的原因

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苹果2023年四季度

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营收达到1196亿美元

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同比加2%

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净利润339亿美元

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同比加13%

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双双好于预期

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苹果的成长性目前是几大科技巨头中最低的

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原因在于苹果的硬件销售占营收比重仍然最大

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而硬件的需求很难持续保持快速增长

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目前苹果正处于转型的关键时期

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头戴设备将会成为苹果下一轮增长

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和生态完善的一个重点

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值得一提的是

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苹果这个季度在大中华地区的营收

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同比下降了13%

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这也间接证明了中国经济不振

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消费能力下降

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这一季度

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大中华在苹果营收中的占比

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进一步下降到17.4%

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加上产业链的分散化配置

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无论是生产端还是消费端

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脱钩

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确实是正在进行中

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三谷歌

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谷歌在2023年四季度

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营收为863.1亿美元

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同比降13%

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净利润206.87亿美元

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同比降52%

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均超预期

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特别是超过五成的利润增幅

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将谷歌的估值一口气降到了便宜的程度

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也证明谷歌过去一年

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包括裁员在内的降本增效措施是有显著效果的

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但另一方面

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谷歌在财报后的股价表现

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是几大巨头中最差的一家

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因为谷歌的最主要的广告营收不及预期

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谷歌广告收入655.17亿美元

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同比增长11.0%

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但谷歌云收入超预期

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且首次实现全年盈利

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2023年Q4

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谷歌云收入91.92亿美元

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同比增长25.7%

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利润8.64亿美元

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利润率9%

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值得注意的是

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谷歌四季度资本支出110亿美元

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同比增长45.1%

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这其中可能有相当大的一部分

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都去向英伟达买卡去了

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因为AI的竞争非常激烈

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谁的算力强

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谁就能领先一步

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谷歌股价在财报后大幅下跌

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若按照四季度谷歌的盈利

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谷歌现在的市盈率只有20位出头

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这个估值对于保持高速增长的大型科技股来说

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已经很便宜了

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四亚马逊

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亚马逊在2023年四季度

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销售额1700亿美元

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同比加14%

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净利润达到106.24亿美元

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与上年同期的2.78亿美元相比

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大幅增长逾37倍

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亚马逊的营收结构中

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传统的在线直营商店销售额同比增长8%

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而广告收入增长了26%

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AWS增长了13%

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亚马逊的营收构成也在像微软一样逐渐多样化

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而且我们从传统业务的增长看

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亚马逊在电商领域的霸主地位非常牢固

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至少在现阶段

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TM和sh对于亚马逊的挑战

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可能只会在中低端商品和非prime

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用户上有一定体现

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另外北美和欧洲等发达市场的电商

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的普及率比中国低很多

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电商赛道的增长潜力还没有完全消耗完

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U咩的MEA在20234季度

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营收401.1亿美元

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同比加25%

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净利润140亿美元

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同比加201%

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可以说meta的财报是这几家巨头中最惊艳的

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FACEBOOK这样的传统业务月活跃用户继续增长

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同比增长3%至30.7亿

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也推动Q4广告销售额为387亿美元

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同比增长24%

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另外专注于虚拟世界的reality labs部门

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的季度收入首次超过10亿美元

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但由于投入大仍然亏损

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我们回头看FACEBOOK在过去一年多

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能够从80多美元的谷底

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涨到现在的475美元

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得益于两件事

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一是减少了大约1/5的员工

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缩减了成本

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二是在AI领域大刀阔斧获得突破

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半年前

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meta就发布了免费可商用版本的

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开源次世代大模型

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Leo a two

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lemon two的基础模型比gt3更强

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而微调后聊天模型则能与ChatGPT匹敌

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然而meta表示自己不专注于leon a two的变现

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企业需要向微软支付企业托管功能的费用

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对微软来说

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这项合作也表明

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他愿意对OpenAI以外的公司的人工智能大模型

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给予一定的支持

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微软赢两次

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目前meta拥有的英伟达高端显卡数量

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相当于60万张

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H100

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几乎可以这样说

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现在谁的卡多

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谁就能成为AI巨头

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MEA除了在开源大模型上给行业新的定义

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AI在社交网络和元宇宙上也会有广阔应用

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经过了2022年的至暗时刻

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我们可以完全相信

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meta现在可以找到一条可行的未来增长方向

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那就是AI社交

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虚拟现实相互支持和融合

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美娜这次宣布了500亿美元的大方回购计划

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同时开始分红

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这500亿美元回购的股票直接注销

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而不是作为员工奖励

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这是对投资者非常有诚意的回馈

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也说明目前在meta自己看来

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他们的股价并没有高估

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我记得英伟达在2023年二季度的财报中

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公布过

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在2023年二季度

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公司回购的成本价437美元

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这个数字就成为我之后买入英伟达的参考价

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只要跌到这个水平

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我就买入

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事实证明这是对的

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AMD与英特尔

224
00:07:53,100 --> 00:07:56,370
AMD在2023年第四季度收入62亿美元

225
00:07:56,370 --> 00:07:57,579
同比加10%

226
00:07:57,579 --> 00:08:00,189
但全年收入约227亿美元

227
00:08:00,189 --> 00:08:01,600
同比减4%

228
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,639
净利润为6.67亿美元

229
00:08:03,639 --> 00:08:06,379
同比加3076%

230
00:08:06,379 --> 00:08:07,220
我们可以看出

231
00:08:07,220 --> 00:08:10,160
2023年全年本身是半导体行业周期

232
00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:11,839
一个向下见底的年份

233
00:08:11,839 --> 00:08:13,300
如果不是AI的爆发

234
00:08:13,300 --> 00:08:14,199
那么2023年

235
00:08:14,199 --> 00:08:16,540
半导体板块不会有这样好的表现

236
00:08:16,540 --> 00:08:18,310
AMD4季度的业绩回升

237
00:08:18,310 --> 00:08:21,379
说明半导体行业已经从底部开始回升

238
00:08:21,379 --> 00:08:22,220
作为对比

239
00:08:22,220 --> 00:08:23,480
英特尔的情况类似

240
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,220
英特尔2023年第四季度

241
00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:27,379
营收154.1亿美元

242
00:08:27,379 --> 00:08:28,399
同比降10%

243
00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:30,259
全年营收542亿美元

244
00:08:30,259 --> 00:08:31,519
同比减14%

245
00:08:31,519 --> 00:08:33,139
净利润27亿美元

246
00:08:33,139 --> 00:08:35,450
去年同期净亏损7亿美元

247
00:08:35,450 --> 00:08:38,690
AMD财报中不及预期的是未来业绩指引

248
00:08:38,690 --> 00:08:42,620
AMD预计今年一季度的营收指引54亿美元

249
00:08:42,620 --> 00:08:46,159
这导致财报后AMD股价盘后下跌6%

250
00:08:46,159 --> 00:08:48,919
AMD称上半年的加速器产能趋紧

251
00:08:48,919 --> 00:08:50,539
预计将在下半年改善

252
00:08:50,539 --> 00:08:52,799
每个季度的加速器营收都将增长

253
00:08:52,799 --> 00:08:53,700
有足够的供应

254
00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:56,318
超过35亿美元的AI芯片目标

255
00:08:56,318 --> 00:08:58,839
尽管英特尔营收利润都高于AMD

256
00:08:58,839 --> 00:09:00,908
他是过去CPU时代的芯片王者

257
00:09:00,908 --> 00:09:02,799
但基于GPU的AI时代

258
00:09:02,799 --> 00:09:04,509
英特尔需要更多追赶

259
00:09:04,509 --> 00:09:08,019
目前AMD几乎是唯一可能对英伟达发起挑战的

260
00:09:08,019 --> 00:09:09,259
AI芯片生产商

261
00:09:09,259 --> 00:09:10,220
AMD声称

262
00:09:10,220 --> 00:09:14,000
mi300系列芯片性能优于英伟达的H100显卡

263
00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,360
且已经拿到了微软甲骨文meta以及OpenAI的订单

264
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,759
我们还可以从AMD和其他半导体产业链上的公司

265
00:09:20,759 --> 00:09:21,299
一窥

266
00:09:21,299 --> 00:09:24,679
现在半导体特别是AI芯片的供需状态

267
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,539
他明显处于供不应求

268
00:09:26,539 --> 00:09:27,950
产能不足的阶段

269
00:09:27,950 --> 00:09:29,419
不及预期的业绩指引

270
00:09:29,419 --> 00:09:31,190
也是因为产能紧张所致

271
00:09:31,190 --> 00:09:33,700
这对于台积电阿斯麦是好消息

272
00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:36,429
我个人是看好英伟达后续的财报的

273
00:09:36,429 --> 00:09:39,700
因为台积电20234季度营收显著超预期

274
00:09:39,700 --> 00:09:42,460
而台积电的头部客户无外乎苹果

275
00:09:42,460 --> 00:09:42,879
英伟达

276
00:09:42,879 --> 00:09:43,960
AMD这些

277
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,639
苹果和AMD这些客户

278
00:09:45,639 --> 00:09:48,318
在四季度的表现只是超出预期一点点

279
00:09:48,318 --> 00:09:51,469
那台积电超出预期的产能去哪里了呢

280
00:09:51,469 --> 00:09:53,719
有可能被英伟达吃了

281
00:09:53,719 --> 00:09:56,210
逆风起飞与估值变化

282
00:09:56,210 --> 00:09:57,110
总的来说

283
00:09:57,110 --> 00:09:59,750
上述科技大厂都实现了增收增利

284
00:09:59,750 --> 00:10:02,090
利润的增长几乎都明显大于营收

285
00:10:02,090 --> 00:10:02,990
特别是像谷歌

286
00:10:02,990 --> 00:10:05,830
微软meta这样动辄上万亿美元的巨头

287
00:10:05,830 --> 00:10:08,740
利润比一年前分别增长五成三成两倍

288
00:10:08,740 --> 00:10:11,269
这非常有助于消化市场当前的估值

289
00:10:11,269 --> 00:10:13,429
美股的上涨长期由业绩推动

290
00:10:13,429 --> 00:10:15,860
所以股价上涨不代表资产变贵了

291
00:10:15,860 --> 00:10:18,080
如果利润增长高于股价上涨

292
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,059
那么这个公司是变得便宜了

293
00:10:20,059 --> 00:10:21,068
而不是变贵了

294
00:10:21,068 --> 00:10:24,068
另外任何公司的扩张都是有融资需求的

295
00:10:24,068 --> 00:10:24,849
这些科技公司

296
00:10:24,849 --> 00:10:27,729
在2023年四季度的货币环境背景是

297
00:10:27,729 --> 00:10:30,639
美国我联邦基金利率达到5.25%

298
00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:32,279
至5.5%的水平

299
00:10:32,279 --> 00:10:35,610
在这样高的利率环境下实现了这样快速的增长

300
00:10:35,610 --> 00:10:39,629
这体现了这些科技公司强大成长性和内在韧性

301
00:10:39,629 --> 00:10:41,429
在这一轮财报季之后

302
00:10:41,429 --> 00:10:43,230
标普500和纳斯达克100

303
00:10:43,230 --> 00:10:45,700
的加权市盈率均有显著下降

304
00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:46,480
股价不变

305
00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:47,200
利润增长

306
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:48,580
市盈率自然下降

307
00:10:48,580 --> 00:10:49,779
特别是标普500

308
00:10:49,779 --> 00:10:51,379
目前的估值在22倍

309
00:10:51,379 --> 00:10:54,019
而一年后的展望为22.15倍

310
00:10:54,019 --> 00:10:57,409
那么未来一年市场整体大概率仍是向上的

311
00:10:57,409 --> 00:10:59,000
因为企业盈利在增长

312
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,000
估值还略有提升

313
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:02,740
看过这轮财报后

314
00:11:02,740 --> 00:11:04,960
我对meta印象是最深刻的

315
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,000
而且我也进行了一次深刻的反省

316
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,919
我虽然长期重仓微软

317
00:11:08,919 --> 00:11:12,159
也在2022下2023上成功抄底英伟达

318
00:11:12,159 --> 00:11:14,139
但最大的遗憾是错过了meta

319
00:11:14,139 --> 00:11:16,059
误把meta当成是简单的

320
00:11:16,059 --> 00:11:17,919
没有护城河的社交网络公司

321
00:11:17,919 --> 00:11:20,919
但事实情况和我当初的想法是完全不同的

322
00:11:20,919 --> 00:11:22,059
反省过后又总结

323
00:11:22,059 --> 00:11:24,320
这个世界上本身就有无数的机会

324
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,059
我们不可能每一个都抓住

325
00:11:26,059 --> 00:11:28,820
或者说我们只要抓住一个机会就可以了

326
00:11:28,820 --> 00:11:29,480
俱往矣

327
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,120
与其在错过的机会上焦虑和后悔

328
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,049
不如向前看

329
00:11:33,049 --> 00:11:33,950
继续学习

330
00:11:33,950 --> 00:11:36,940
抓住未来更多更好的机会

331
00:11:36,940 --> 00:11:40,059
资源分享投资总结到此为止

332
00:11:40,059 --> 00:11:40,960
由于时间有限

333
00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,360
我不会在公众号或其他视频号后台

334
00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,000
回答任何投资相关问题

335
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,669
咨询与互动的唯一平台是支持星球

336
00:11:47,669 --> 00:11:50,700
我的星球社群运营了超过2200天

337
00:11:50,700 --> 00:11:53,100
主题分享数量超过8100条

338
00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:54,750
成员数量超过1000人

339
00:11:54,750 --> 00:11:56,850
您可以翻看历史中任何一条内容

340
00:11:56,850 --> 00:11:58,139
如果你对价值投资

341
00:11:58,139 --> 00:12:00,139
房产海外等主题感兴趣

342
00:12:00,139 --> 00:12:03,440
如果想和我以及其他群友互动提问或私聊

343
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:04,620
都可以加入其中

344
00:12:04,620 --> 00:12:07,169
原则上星球的会员提问我都会回答

345
00:12:07,169 --> 00:12:10,620
我也会在里面分享自己的一些见闻心得体会

346
00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:11,460
交易记录

347
00:12:11,460 --> 00:12:13,559
本篇内容也节选和编辑自

348
00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,200
本周星球专属订阅内容的一部分

349
00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:17,919
每周一则专属订阅内容

350
00:12:17,919 --> 00:12:19,840
对我的知识星球感兴趣的朋友

351
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,289
可以扫下方二维码加入

352
00:12:22,289 --> 00:12:24,120
如果你喜欢本期视频

353
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,529
希望可以点赞关注

354
00:12:25,529 --> 00:12:26,279
支持一波

355
00:12:26,279 --> 00:12:28,559
这将对我有很大的帮助

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