【NaNa说美股】20260529信了价值投资的邪！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是5月29号周五

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古代尔财报呢超预期

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股价大涨

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进一步提振了市场风险偏好情绪

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美股三大股指集体收涨

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美伊协议还没有签哈

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但是原有多头已经缴械投降了

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跌破了这个收敛三角形之后

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下行趋势就已经出来

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标普500指数今天逼近7600点了

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没能够强势突破哈

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但是卖方力量也不大

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指数日内一直维持横盘窄幅波动

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本周指数累涨了1.4%

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三周K实现九连阳

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创下自2023年12月以来的最长连涨纪录

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周线ISI指标已经连续四周处于超买区域了

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有趣的是

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美盈与野村证券

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都建议投资者在6月初获利了结

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每一协议落地

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可能成为市场出现剧烈回调的催化剂

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原因是届时利率和美元指数可能双双下跌

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资金卖出热门科技股头寸下

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更具经济敏感型的落后行业轮动

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拖累标普500等主要指数的表现

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野村证券的明星策略师迈克ELLIOT还表示

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即便没有美伊协议这个催化剂哈

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本轮上涨也可能会在6月份自然失去动力

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他建议投资者密切关注看涨期权的交易活动

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一旦与大型科技股

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还有那些半导体龙头相关的

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看涨期权需求开始减弱的话

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这可能意味着市场抛售即将来临

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高盛前两天也说嗯

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资金可能要开始轮动了

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从高位动量股呢流去低位滞涨股

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下周开始哈

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美股就要进入6月交易了

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那我们就等着看呗

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到时候这个6月份到底会不会回调

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什么时候开始回调

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其实我觉得大盘就算是回调也不会跌很多

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因为资金并不是离开市场嘛

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只是板块轮动而已

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而且板块轮动很可能已经开始了嗯

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半导体板块中存储

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AI服务器这些虽然还硬挺着哈

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但是光通信板块其实已经跌了几天了

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AOI已经从高位回撤了约35%

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LITE呢回撤了约25%

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这条中期均线电力和储能也已经跌了几天

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燃料电池be已经连续五天下跌

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还有涡轮机龙头GEV

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股价高位回落了近20%

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如果能够回补下方这个缺口

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并且回踩半年线

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那又是一个可以重新上车的机会了

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呃对于这支股票我还是蛮有信心的

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今天资金呢还借助消息

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从太空板块抽了一些出来

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盘前的时候

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彭博社报道称

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SPACEX将其估值目标从超过2万亿美元

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下调至至少1.8万亿美元

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另外贝佐斯旗下的蓝色起源公司火箭

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在进行高温点火测试时发生了剧烈爆炸

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受此消息影响

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哈太空概念股盘前的时候就集体走低了

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尽管随后

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马斯克否认了关于SPACEX下调IPO估值目标的报道

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称此为虚假消息

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太空概念股盘中呢也收窄了跌幅

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但是股价没能够成功转涨

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这说明仍然有部分资金借助消息获利了结

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据船公司地面测试和部署再次出现了延误

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其实这些太空股都是陪跑的啦

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等SPACEX6月12号上市之后

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能买龙头的话

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谁还买杂牌军呢

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这些太空概念股最多还剩下两周时间

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可以享受抬轿子行情

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因为大家会提前抽取现金

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等着去买SPACEX

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然后软件板块与加密板块呢开始暴力反弹

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在snowflake的财报推动之下

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整个软件板块情绪大幅改善

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IGB今天怒涨6.25%

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收复了这条年线

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这个是自今年年初以来

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首次回到这条长期牛熊分界线上

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发哈几个成分股里面

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甲骨文

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微软帕兰特等等都全部走枪嗯

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ServiceNow股价今天跳涨14.4%

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一举脱离了下方这个整理区间

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站上了半年线

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如果接下来半导体回调软件股的反弹行情呢

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应该还可以再延续一段时间

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至少ServiceNow可以拿到接近年限的时候再看

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如果能够有效突破年限

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那行情就反转

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就从这个下跌转为上升

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要是突破不了年限又掉下去呢

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那就还只是超跌反弹而已

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奥克达第一季度业绩好于预期

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并且三条了全年业绩指引

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股价暴拉28%

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快回到去年5月高点了哈

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股价之前一直低位盘整

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所以这财报出来稍微好一些

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股价的反应就非常的剧烈

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文档数据库公司MONGODB呢

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也公布了好于预期的第一季度财报

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并且提高了年度预期哈

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但是股价日内走势让人非常迷惑

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开盘前还拉升7%

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开盘后立即跳水转跌了

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午后又重新拉涨

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昨天盘后就挺腰的

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财报刚出来

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先暴跌17%

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然后又拉涨25%

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所以完全看不懂这个股票啊

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其他软件股呢都涨得兴高采烈

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芯片设计软件公司SMPS股价呢却表现疲软

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现在回落到这条年线上

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公司最近公布的强劲业绩和指引

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都没能够打动投资者

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嗯季度营收22.76亿美元

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大涨了41.9%

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可是净利润却没有同步爆发

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反而缩水到微乎其微的1700万美元

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几乎跌入盈亏平衡线

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另外公司为了优化结构

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这些费用在第二财季呢会集中计提

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侵蚀了当季的利润表现

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但是最根本的原因哈还是这股票估值依然过高

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透支了所有利好

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全年营收指引增长37%

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虽然好于预期

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但是不够让人惊艳

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所以暂时就先看它股价能否在年线企稳反弹吧

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金融科技与加密板块也都得到了资金的回流

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SOFI股价今天突然

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毫无征兆的盘前暴拉16%

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表面消息呢是平台推出稳定币呃

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Sofi usd

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还有BTIG一个分析师维持SOFI持有的品级

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但是这完全无法支撑起

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盘前16%的暴拉哈

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大家又开始猜测诶

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是不是有机会被纳入标普500指数啊

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从去年6月份就开始

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隔三差五的炒作这个纳入指数这件事情

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然后每次都是失望

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虽然这股票几个硬性指标呢都达到了嗯

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比如市值门槛

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流动性与盈利门槛

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但是标普500追求的是精确复制

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美国整体经济的行业结构

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标普委员会对sofa的定义呢是金融服务

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而目前嗯

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指数里面的金融股和银行股已经严重饱和了哈

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成份股里面并不缺银行

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如果是要纳入SOFI的话

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通常就需要剔除另外一家表现极差的金融股

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而目前排在SOFI前面的那些候选金融科技标的

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竞争非常的激烈

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再加上华尔街传统派对SOFI依然抱有偏见啊

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导致这个指数委员会很难在短期内考虑它了

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未来一两个季度希望依然渺茫

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今天这种突发暴拉

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就是资金就的消息轮动

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AI硬件板块行情呢开始出现分化

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英特尔AREN等股票开始横盘或者回落

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消化估值

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英特尔今天尾盘出现了一波跳水

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跌幅从1%迅速扩大到5%

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英伟达这边尾盘跳水更为剧烈

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市值在几分钟内就蒸发了1460亿美元

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但是很多人都看呆了

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完全不知道发生了什么事情

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嗯与此同时

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COVIASNDKAREN等股票尾盘却直线拉升

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造成这种异常波动的原因

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不是因为这些公司基本面

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突发了什么利空或利好哈

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而是有多个超级巨量资金流在收盘集合

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这个竞价阶段撞车引发的流动性大地震

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今天是5月份的最后一个交易日嘛

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也是全球最具影响力的基准指数

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m s sci全球指数系列

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进行半季度成份股调整的正式生效日

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而且今天MSCI重新平衡

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使史上最大规模的整体交易额

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大约3030亿美元嗯

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全球追踪MSCI指数的数万亿美元被动基金

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为了将追踪误差降到最低

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必须而且只能在调整生效日的最后收盘阶段呃

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就最后20分钟

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严格按照最新的权重比例进行买入或者卖出

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英伟达和英特尔被砸呢

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主要是他们的权重被削减

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给新巨头腾出权重空间

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被新纳入或者调高权重的标的呢

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被动基金必须在最后20分钟不计成本的买入

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他们直接就把他们的股价

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00:09:57,019 --> 00:09:59,328
拉出了旱地拔葱的直线

212
00:09:59,328 --> 00:10:00,208
除此之外

213
00:10:00,208 --> 00:10:03,048
还有养老金再平衡抛压的因素哈

214
00:10:03,048 --> 00:10:07,120
养老金要在这个5月底把股票比例给降下来

215
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,440
因为它作为盘子最大的龙头

216
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,279
首当其冲就成为第一个被动抛售目标

217
00:10:13,279 --> 00:10:16,539
而今天呃周度期权到期哈

218
00:10:16,539 --> 00:10:19,860
也放大了股价最后几分钟的跳水幅度

219
00:10:19,860 --> 00:10:21,480
不过大家不用太担心

220
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:26,820
就是今天尾盘因为MSCI指数调整和养老金再平衡

221
00:10:26,820 --> 00:10:29,009
被砸出来的黄金坑呃

222
00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:31,149
又或者被强行拉高的标的

223
00:10:31,149 --> 00:10:33,450
通常在下个周一开盘时

224
00:10:33,450 --> 00:10:38,259
就会引来主动型资金的均值回归或者抄底盘

225
00:10:38,259 --> 00:10:40,059
所以下周一盘前呢

226
00:10:40,059 --> 00:10:42,789
就可以盯着他们的修复行情了

227
00:10:42,789 --> 00:10:45,789
官通信板块虽然集体都软了

228
00:10:45,789 --> 00:10:49,070
但是存储这边依然硬的一批嗯

229
00:10:49,070 --> 00:10:52,909
NTAP今天盘中一度暴涨35%

230
00:10:52,909 --> 00:10:55,649
尾盘涨幅收窄到22.4%

231
00:10:55,649 --> 00:10:58,990
公司财报与指引双双超预期

232
00:10:58,990 --> 00:11:01,009
营收19.5亿美元

233
00:11:01,009 --> 00:11:02,340
同比增长12%

234
00:11:02,340 --> 00:11:04,860
调整后每股收益2.43美元

235
00:11:04,860 --> 00:11:06,419
同比增长11%

236
00:11:06,419 --> 00:11:08,909
高于预期的2.27美元

237
00:11:08,909 --> 00:11:11,850
公司预计下个财季与全年营收

238
00:11:11,850 --> 00:11:15,379
利润也都明显超过华尔街预测呃

239
00:11:15,379 --> 00:11:18,700
所以这股票获得了多家大喊上调评级

240
00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:20,740
OK业绩是不错

241
00:11:20,740 --> 00:11:22,100
指引业很乐观

242
00:11:22,100 --> 00:11:23,580
但是股价今天涨这么多

243
00:11:23,580 --> 00:11:25,980
明显不只是基本面驱动哈

244
00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:28,990
也夹杂了大量的情绪资金追捧

245
00:11:28,990 --> 00:11:32,690
所以盘中冲高之后呢出现了回落嗯

246
00:11:32,690 --> 00:11:36,309
NTAP虽然不是存储芯片厂商哈

247
00:11:36,309 --> 00:11:39,149
但是也受益于AI数据中心扩建

248
00:11:39,149 --> 00:11:41,690
带来的存储超级周期

249
00:11:41,690 --> 00:11:46,549
因为公司主要提供企业级存储系统以及云端

250
00:11:46,549 --> 00:11:47,929
数据存储服务

251
00:11:47,929 --> 00:11:49,929
它的核心受益方向呢

252
00:11:49,929 --> 00:11:54,169
更偏向企业级N散存存储平台

253
00:11:54,169 --> 00:11:55,970
而并非d one嗯

254
00:11:55,970 --> 00:11:58,269
戴尔科技今天是砍大量股价

255
00:11:58,269 --> 00:12:00,769
跳空大涨了32.8%

256
00:12:00,769 --> 00:12:01,289
可以说

257
00:12:01,289 --> 00:12:03,740
这个今天整个AI半导体的情绪

258
00:12:03,740 --> 00:12:05,240
都是靠他给带起来的

259
00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:09,190
尤其是带动了其他PC和服务器股票

260
00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:13,870
像HPEHPQSMCI的股价等

261
00:12:13,870 --> 00:12:15,159
全都集体上涨

262
00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:17,700
高通股价今天涨超3%

263
00:12:17,700 --> 00:12:18,779
彭博消息称

264
00:12:18,779 --> 00:12:24,340
字节跳动计划采购数百万颗高通的AI定制芯片

265
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,340
随着智能手机市场增长放缓

266
00:12:27,340 --> 00:12:30,279
以及深层次AI浪潮兴起

267
00:12:30,279 --> 00:12:32,080
高通积极推动业务呢

268
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,820
向数据中心与AI计算领域延伸

269
00:12:34,820 --> 00:12:39,240
不过相较于在AI芯片市场占据主导地位的

270
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:39,919
英伟达

271
00:12:39,919 --> 00:12:41,120
AMD等等

272
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:41,659
高通

273
00:12:41,659 --> 00:12:44,919
此前呢就始终缺乏重量级的客户

274
00:12:44,919 --> 00:12:47,490
与大规模商业化落地案例

275
00:12:47,490 --> 00:12:49,169
所以对于沟通而言

276
00:12:49,169 --> 00:12:50,970
与字节跳动的这一笔合作

277
00:12:50,970 --> 00:12:53,000
也是具有重要战略意义

278
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,960
桌子大的芯片新股CBIS上市之前

279
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,399
投行们就故意嗯这大力炒作

280
00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:03,789
结果首日狂欢之后就开始教做人了

281
00:13:03,789 --> 00:13:06,970
股价从385美元的最高点

282
00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:08,839
掉到了240美元

283
00:13:08,839 --> 00:13:10,558
当初IPO之前哈

284
00:13:10,558 --> 00:13:14,158
这个股票原定的发行价呢是120

285
00:13:14,158 --> 00:13:15,330
130美元

286
00:13:15,330 --> 00:13:17,929
结果公司看到市场情绪发烧

287
00:13:17,929 --> 00:13:21,519
40度就一而债的提高发行价

288
00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:24,000
从一百二一百三提高到150

289
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:24,600
160

290
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,259
最后提高到了185美元

291
00:13:27,259 --> 00:13:28,019
木头姐

292
00:13:28,019 --> 00:13:32,450
那个老韭菜班子又用散户的钱给投行们接货呃

293
00:13:32,450 --> 00:13:36,190
当初zoom他是从350美元一路下跌

294
00:13:36,190 --> 00:13:37,149
一路买呀

295
00:13:37,149 --> 00:13:41,230
最后以232美元的平均成本

296
00:13:41,230 --> 00:13:44,169
就这么一路砍到2024年的谷底

297
00:13:44,169 --> 00:13:47,710
60美元附近清仓认赔出局

298
00:13:47,710 --> 00:13:48,330
也就是说

299
00:13:48,330 --> 00:13:52,720
股价从高点下错了85%之后才认输

300
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,639
这笔交易的亏损呢非常的惊人

301
00:13:55,639 --> 00:13:57,620
提拉多克也是同样的例子

302
00:13:57,620 --> 00:13:59,759
最后也是巨亏离场

303
00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:03,909
现在这个呃CBIS这支股票也赚到了

304
00:14:03,909 --> 00:14:05,190
姐的审美上

305
00:14:05,190 --> 00:14:06,169
同样的操作

306
00:14:06,169 --> 00:14:10,139
股价越跌减呢就越大幅的加仓呃

307
00:14:10,139 --> 00:14:11,200
根本没在怕的哈

308
00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:12,759
反正花的不是他自己的钱

309
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:14,059
也根本不心疼

310
00:14:14,059 --> 00:14:17,779
而且为了腾出资金分款囤积CBIS

311
00:14:17,779 --> 00:14:21,919
他这几天就一直在持续减持那个AAMD

312
00:14:21,919 --> 00:14:24,320
还有自动化测试设备

313
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,940
3TER就呃CBIS越来越低

314
00:14:27,940 --> 00:14:31,360
而它卖掉的AAMDTER呢越涨越高

315
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:32,259
截止目前

316
00:14:32,259 --> 00:14:35,440
木头姐在CBIS上的总持仓规模

317
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,240
已经快速滚到了

318
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,039
大约3550万到4000万美元左右

319
00:14:41,039 --> 00:14:45,500
已经取代了他之前割肉的那些老AI概念哈

320
00:14:45,500 --> 00:14:49,039
成为了他本月最新的新头号了

321
00:14:49,039 --> 00:14:50,779
所以木头姐要是不走

322
00:14:50,779 --> 00:14:51,500
这个股票

323
00:14:51,500 --> 00:14:53,789
想回到高位是有点难的哈

324
00:14:53,789 --> 00:14:55,970
行今天我们就说到这里

325
00:14:55,970 --> 00:14:57,529
那祝大家这周末愉快

326
00:14:57,529 --> 00:14:59,039
我们下次见拜拜

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