【NaNa说美股】20260316道心崩了...

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月16号

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周一

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国际油价回落

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推动美股全面反弹

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斯大股指集体收占

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英伟达举办GTC大会

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提振了整个半导体板块

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跌幅最大的标的呢

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多为那些被用来做空市场的杠杆反向ETF

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油价日内冲高回落

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周末

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美国对伊朗主要石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛

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发动袭击后

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市场一度担心中东能源供应会进一步受到冲击

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油价今天开盘还一度涨超3%

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不过这种紧张情绪

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给暂时缓和

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贝森特表示

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美国允许伊朗油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡

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以维持全球能源供应的基本平衡

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避免油价失控飙升

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他还称

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已经看到

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越来越多的邮轮开始重新通过这条关键航道

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这一番话呢

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迅速缓解了市场对长期供应重大的担忧

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哈油价就随机回吐涨幅

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并且转化为下跌

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确实也出现了一些象征性的恢复通行的迹象

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船舶追踪数据显示

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一艘名为卡拉奇号的巴基斯坦邮轮

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在周日顺利通过了霍尔木兹海峡

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当时该船的自动识别系统处于开启状态

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船上装载着阿联酋的缘由

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沿着伊朗海岸线向东航行

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并且在当晚离开了海峡

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与此同时呢

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印度也在与伊朗谈判

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希望确保六艘运载液化石油气的邮轮

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能够安全通过

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已经有多个国家与德黑兰接触

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希望确保船只安全通行

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他同时强调

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海峡只对敌对国家的船只关闭

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不过呢以上这些进展哈

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更多只是情绪层面的改善而已

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事实上呢在过去两周

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通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量极少

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知情人士还透露

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即使印度达成的协议

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也只是单程安排

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就是允许那些原本滞留在海峡以西的船只离开

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但是并不允许新的邮轮进入装货

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换句话说呢

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这只是缓解了部分滞留船只的问题哈

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并没有恢复真正的能源运输

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就在刚过去的周六

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霍尔木兹海峡的通航

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船只数量还甚至一度降为零呢

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这个是冲突爆发以来第一次

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相比之下

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在战争爆发前

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这条航道平均每天有大约77艘船只会通过

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如果未来能恢复到每天

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20~30艘船的水平啊

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才可以视为这个航道真正开始恢复

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因此现实情况就是

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中东局势并没有出现任何实质性的缓和

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双方对抗仍在持续升级

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摩根大通上周就曾警告

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如果周末局势没有改善

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而油价持续维持在每桶90美元以上的话

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那本周标普500指数

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可能会面临更大规模的抛售压力

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引发10%到15%的回调

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同时呢

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油价上涨还可能通过多米诺骨牌效应

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冲击美国经济

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能源成本上升

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叠加股市财富缩水

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可能会让美国家庭消费支出下降约1%呃

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所以哈这个局势没能够真正缓解是吧

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但市场熟悉的搭扣剧情又开始上演了

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周末期间

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川普暗示可能通过谈判结束冲突

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但伊朗方面很快回应称

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并没有提出停火或者谈判的请求

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随后呢川普又提出了海上护航的想法

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并且在周末向其他国家施压

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希望大家组建正义联盟

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哈协作开放霍尔木兹海峡航道呃

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据称本周可能会发布相关声明

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不过呢考虑到军事风险

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不少国家已经明确表示不会参与

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今天川普又对媒体表示

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伊朗希望达成协议

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双方正在进行接触

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哎

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类似的表态设场实在是听过太多了

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有点麻木了

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于是呢就派贝森特出面来安抚市场

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用更加温和的方式来稳定情绪

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贝森特还特别强调

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美国目前并没有干预能源期货市场

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也没有直接出手干预油价呃

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这个话嗯有的人信

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有的人不信哈

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但是从更客观的角度来说呢

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当前原有价格已经计入了大量

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避远政治风险溢价

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所以波动就格外的剧烈

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稍稍有是个缓和的消息

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价格就会迅速回落

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所以今天这个回落也不奇怪了

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国际能源署今天呢也表示

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如果有必要

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仍可以动用更多紧急石油储备

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上周才刚刚同意

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开展史上最大规模的储备示范计划

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现在又讨论进一步释放储备

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这本身就说明市场对供应冲击的担忧依然很高

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嗯能源署呢也承认这个战略储备啊

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只能提供短期的缓冲哈

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并不能够从根本上解决问题

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真正的关键仍然识霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常通行

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伊朗国内的局势呢也变得更加复杂

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据科威特媒体报道

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他受伤之后

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已经被秘密转送到莫斯科接受手术治疗了

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目前正在俄罗斯总统官邸医院康复

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之所以选择赴俄罗斯治疗

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据称是因为伊朗境内的医院不安全

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可能成为以色列空袭的目标

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如果这个消息属实的话

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那么伊朗内部权力结构啊

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可能也是处于某种不稳定的状态

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博菜市场对未来停火的预期呢就显得相当谨慎

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polip market预测平台上显示

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市场认为在4月底之前实现停火的概率

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只有大约36%

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而且还在下降

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相比之下

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当前股票市场的定价哈似乎还在

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假设冲突会很快结束

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两者之间呢存在着明显的落差

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看你是更相信polly market预测呢

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还是更相信当前人这个股市的定价咯

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黄金最近持续阴跌

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贝森特强调

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美国的长期通胀预期

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让牢牢锚定市场对长期价格压力的担忧有限

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尽管中东冲突推高了短期油价

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但美国本身是全球最大的产油国之一

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强劲的本土产量

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在一定程度上缓冲了全球供应冲击

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也支撑了美国经济的韧性

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除了中东局势之外

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本周还是一个重要的操

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美联储

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将会在这个周三和周四陆续公布利率决议

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虽然市场普遍预计

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决议呢并不会带来任何意外的惊喜

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但是在中东冲突背景之下

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将会受到高度关注

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目前利率市场已经对能源冲击做出了

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更鹰派的定价

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甚至开始讨论

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回到美股本身嗯

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今天标普500指数的反弹

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更像是一轮缓解性反弹哈

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无需过度解读

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主要动力就是来自部分空头的获利回补

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当前市场中呢因为积累了大量的空头头寸

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这反而使得指数很难持续快速下跌

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因为空投也需要在关键位置锁定利润

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但上周五指数跌到而接近年线附近的时候

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许多空头就开始主动回补仓位了

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从而推动了指数的反弹

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修复情绪和技术面超卖状态

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但是只要反弹无法站稳6800点

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那么下行趋势依然不变

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高盛的模型显示

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CCTA量化资金

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在过去一周已经抛售了大约500亿美元

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全球股票

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但是抛压仍未完全释放哈

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未来一周可能有约690亿到七

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百亿美元的卖盘

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未来一个月甚至可能达到

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接近1000亿美元的抛压

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与此同时呢

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散户买盘也在逐渐减弱

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而这意味着机械性抛售压力仍在累积哈

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美股的调整可能尚未结束

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本周五呢美股还将迎来35日

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就有名义价值大约1.3万亿美元的期权到期

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可能会进一步放大市场的波动

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所以这个时候呢大家不宜盲目的乐观或悲观

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就是手里面一定要控制好仓位嗯

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费城半导体指数今天表现要好于美股大盘

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市场传出

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半导体产业链可能会迎来新一轮涨价潮

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继存储芯片和封装之后

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晶圆代工环节开始提高报价

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台湾媒体报道称

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联电世界先进和利机电最快将会从4月起调升

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价格

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涨幅可能达到10%左右

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另一边

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英特尔渠道负责人也透露

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当前CPU供应已经出现了明显紧张

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云服务商

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00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:33,068
OEM厂商以及装机商都无法获得预期的供货量

216
00:09:33,068 --> 00:09:36,509
虽然涨价幅度还没有像内存那么夸张哈

217
00:09:36,509 --> 00:09:39,500
但是价格上涨似乎呢已经不可避免

218
00:09:39,500 --> 00:09:42,139
本来英特尔股价今天盘中涨的好好的

219
00:09:42,139 --> 00:09:44,840
结果尾盘被英伟达给带崩了

220
00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,700
英伟达今天的股价表现就让人特别特别的无语

221
00:09:48,700 --> 00:09:52,679
黄仁勋在GDC大会上画了一个通天的句柄

222
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:57,208
结果被一群机构当成了高位逃命的烟雾弹啊

223
00:09:57,208 --> 00:09:57,749
老黄说

224
00:09:57,749 --> 00:10:00,068
AI算力需求仍在快速增长

225
00:10:00,068 --> 00:10:03,799
预计今明两年收入将至少达到1万亿美元

226
00:10:03,799 --> 00:10:04,840
这个话一出来

227
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,720
那些高频交易算法就像闻到屎味的苍蝇一样哈

228
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,169
瞬间高潮了

229
00:10:10,169 --> 00:10:12,549
零点几秒内就完成了扫货

230
00:10:12,549 --> 00:10:15,450
把股价直接顶到了188美元

231
00:10:15,450 --> 00:10:18,049
这一波拉升根本不是人在买哈

232
00:10:18,049 --> 00:10:19,609
是机器在发疯

233
00:10:19,609 --> 00:10:23,109
当股价接近189主力附近的时候呢

234
00:10:23,109 --> 00:10:24,568
大资金心里想的是

235
00:10:24,568 --> 00:10:27,328
卧槽终于有这么多算法和散户来接盘了

236
00:10:27,328 --> 00:10:28,568
老子要赶紧撤

237
00:10:28,568 --> 00:10:31,349
他们就利用这一波突如其来的流动性

238
00:10:31,349 --> 00:10:35,308
直接把手里的货全砸给了那些追高的二货们

239
00:10:35,308 --> 00:10:37,720
于是呢拉的有多快

240
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:38,899
跌的就有多狠

241
00:10:38,899 --> 00:10:41,360
几乎把涨幅全部吐回了

242
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:43,960
这情况和11月20号财报日

243
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,740
第二天的走势就特别的像

244
00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,710
都是满屏的利益好

245
00:10:47,710 --> 00:10:49,669
结果呢股价拉高出货

246
00:10:49,669 --> 00:10:50,990
大家都很现实啊

247
00:10:50,990 --> 00:10:52,590
既然你谈的是两年后的事情

248
00:10:52,590 --> 00:10:56,639
那我现就拿你今天的利好换成现金落袋为安

249
00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:00,179
尤其是在这个当前币源呃

250
00:11:00,179 --> 00:11:03,220
风险这么高度不确定的背景之下

251
00:11:03,220 --> 00:11:05,019
大家其实本来都想测

252
00:11:05,019 --> 00:11:06,360
但是流动性不够

253
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:10,990
所以就趁着这一次突如其来的这个利好收割哈

254
00:11:10,990 --> 00:11:14,389
今天这波操作就是一次教科书级别的

255
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:15,960
借利好出货

256
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,059
老黄提供的剧本算法提供了动力

257
00:11:19,059 --> 00:11:20,720
大机构完成了收割

258
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,200
最后就留下一堆

259
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,000
在188美元站岗的倒霉蛋们

260
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,480
最后股价呢缩在183.2

261
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,080
这条长上影线就像一根中指

262
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,690
直接插在了所有多头的脑门上

263
00:11:32,690 --> 00:11:35,690
如果中东那边要是再出点什么幺蛾子

264
00:11:35,690 --> 00:11:38,570
股价就会顺着今天这一根避雷针的指引

265
00:11:38,570 --> 00:11:39,570
直接回踩年线

266
00:11:39,570 --> 00:11:40,389
177

267
00:11:40,389 --> 00:11:41,710
甚至可能更低

268
00:11:41,710 --> 00:11:43,950
nba is最近利好不断

269
00:11:43,950 --> 00:11:46,070
股价呢连续跳空大涨

270
00:11:46,070 --> 00:11:49,139
前几天刚获得英伟达20亿美元入股投资

271
00:11:49,139 --> 00:11:52,799
今天MEA又宣布与其签署了一份为期5年

272
00:11:52,799 --> 00:11:56,200
价值至多270亿美元的合作协议

273
00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:57,120
根据协议

274
00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,059
NBS将会从2027年初起

275
00:12:00,059 --> 00:12:03,720
向meta提供120亿美元的专属算力服务

276
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:05,679
煤炭呢也承诺购买至多

277
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,220
150亿美元的额外算力容量

278
00:12:08,220 --> 00:12:11,600
这个是继去年30亿美元合作之后

279
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,559
meta对NBS的再次大规模的压注

280
00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,639
反观隔壁的甲骨文

281
00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:19,360
弱鸡的简直没眼看了哈

282
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,039
财报那天死猫跳了一下

283
00:12:21,039 --> 00:12:22,519
现在又萎下去了

284
00:12:22,519 --> 00:12:25,720
管理层将2027财年的营收指引

285
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:27,519
上调到900亿美元

286
00:12:27,519 --> 00:12:30,200
虽然让市场情绪兴奋了一下

287
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:34,479
但是部分分析师认为这个指引可能过于乐观

288
00:12:34,479 --> 00:12:36,078
就有点水分嗯

289
00:12:36,078 --> 00:12:39,799
甲骨文为了抵消短期内毛利率受压

290
00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:43,769
因为封款这个购买GPU和扩建数据中心

291
00:12:43,769 --> 00:12:45,450
所带来的那个负面情绪

292
00:12:45,450 --> 00:12:49,318
故意抛出这个远期的高增长目标来喂给市场

293
00:12:49,318 --> 00:12:52,058
实际上啊能不能够达到这个目标

294
00:12:52,058 --> 00:12:56,818
取决于OpenAI x AI等大客户是否能够持续续约

295
00:12:56,818 --> 00:12:58,099
所以现在看到了哈

296
00:12:58,099 --> 00:13:00,759
这些呃大型数据中心

297
00:13:00,759 --> 00:13:01,818
还有那个英伟达

298
00:13:01,818 --> 00:13:04,299
那大头都表现不怎么好

299
00:13:04,299 --> 00:13:06,539
涨的全都是下面的小弟们

300
00:13:06,539 --> 00:13:08,419
那些龙头大哥嗯

301
00:13:08,419 --> 00:13:09,179
涨不动了哈

302
00:13:09,179 --> 00:13:10,539
现在市场流动性不够

303
00:13:10,539 --> 00:13:12,500
就只能够炒炒小票了

304
00:13:12,500 --> 00:13:14,740
meta在上个周五跳空下跌后

305
00:13:14,740 --> 00:13:16,519
今天跟随大盘反弹

306
00:13:16,519 --> 00:13:19,259
公司呢一边计划大规模裁员

307
00:13:19,259 --> 00:13:20,419
降低成本

308
00:13:20,419 --> 00:13:23,509
一边继续大幅增加AI投资

309
00:13:23,509 --> 00:13:26,149
但是这次市场就没有嗯

310
00:13:26,149 --> 00:13:29,929
对他像之前裁员概念股那样子处理

311
00:13:29,929 --> 00:13:31,269
一有裁员的消息

312
00:13:31,269 --> 00:13:32,029
股价暴涨

313
00:13:32,029 --> 00:13:33,509
这便是反着来了

314
00:13:33,509 --> 00:13:36,029
其实就是现在市场流动性不够

315
00:13:36,029 --> 00:13:38,730
就钱不够来拉这些巨头哈

316
00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:41,429
油气股BATL大跌

317
00:13:45,830 --> 00:13:47,960
对中东局势极为敏感

318
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,200
冲突升级的时候股价暴涨

319
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,279
一旦油价回落就迅速下跌

320
00:13:52,279 --> 00:13:53,559
波动非常的剧烈

321
00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:55,279
现在这种毛票腰鼓

322
00:13:55,279 --> 00:13:56,480
我就在旁边

323
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:57,620
只看热闹不碰了

324
00:13:57,620 --> 00:14:00,269
因为小心脏受不了嗯行

325
00:14:00,269 --> 00:14:02,950
今天我们就简单的说到这里

326
00:14:02,950 --> 00:14:04,399
那我们明天见拜拜

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