1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,600
去年78月份发了好几条视频
2
00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:03,799
就讲了
3
00:00:03,799 --> 00:00:06,120
国内大通胀马上就要来临
4
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:07,689
一定要学会透支
5
00:00:07,689 --> 00:00:09,589
当时我讲了三个原因吧
6
00:00:09,589 --> 00:00:11,929
一个原因呢就是原材料是吧
7
00:00:11,929 --> 00:00:13,228
金银铜铁啊
8
00:00:13,228 --> 00:00:16,089
捏吸各种金属
9
00:00:16,089 --> 00:00:17,929
有色金属和贵金属在风挡
10
00:00:17,929 --> 00:00:19,609
那这些封挡之后呢
11
00:00:19,609 --> 00:00:21,949
面临的就是产品的成本涨
12
00:00:21,949 --> 00:00:23,570
那产品成本涨完之后
13
00:00:23,570 --> 00:00:27,620
然后没有涨价能力的企业基本上都被淘汰了
14
00:00:27,620 --> 00:00:30,120
那剩下的企业家都开始疯狂倒下了
15
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,539
那第二个呢就是身边的费用在涨吧
16
00:00:33,539 --> 00:00:34,399
我说了几个点
17
00:00:34,399 --> 00:00:36,049
一个是税收啊
18
00:00:36,049 --> 00:00:36,609
电商税啊
19
00:00:36,609 --> 00:00:37,170
各种税啊
20
00:00:37,170 --> 00:00:38,649
全面查税啊
21
00:00:38,649 --> 00:00:39,649
包括矿境电商啊
22
00:00:39,649 --> 00:00:41,530
这一下子就是十几个点
23
00:00:41,530 --> 00:00:44,020
然后第二个呢就社保啊
24
00:00:44,020 --> 00:00:45,539
全员社保都要涨啊
25
00:00:45,539 --> 00:00:47,299
这样的话就是企业的支出涨了
26
00:00:47,299 --> 00:00:49,240
那那必须又要涨价了
27
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,219
那第三个呢就是讲了美国啊
28
00:00:52,219 --> 00:00:54,990
美国的过去的45年的时间啊
29
00:00:54,990 --> 00:00:57,289
房价你看我现在在水牛湾公园啊
30
00:00:57,289 --> 00:00:59,429
房价基本上翻了三倍是吧
31
00:00:59,429 --> 00:01:02,380
然后基本上物价也翻了三倍啊
32
00:01:02,380 --> 00:01:05,810
然后基本上这企业呢小企业快倒闭完了
33
00:01:05,810 --> 00:01:07,450
实际上美国走的路呢
34
00:01:07,450 --> 00:01:08,569
中国必然也走
35
00:01:08,569 --> 00:01:11,750
实际上你看去年到现在和我预测的一模一样
36
00:01:11,750 --> 00:01:13,150
你看黄金啊
37
00:01:13,150 --> 00:01:14,209
绿色糕点
38
00:01:14,209 --> 00:01:15,250
白银啊
39
00:01:15,250 --> 00:01:16,189
翻了好多倍啊
40
00:01:16,189 --> 00:01:17,769
铜好多倍啊
41
00:01:17,769 --> 00:01:18,760
锡啊
42
00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:20,120
我讲了很多的公司啊
43
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:20,939
交给同业
44
00:01:20,939 --> 00:01:23,209
从去年7月份讲
45
00:01:23,209 --> 00:01:26,349
兄弟们兄弟们拿住到他现在已经翻了四倍了
46
00:01:26,349 --> 00:01:26,930
15啊
47
00:01:26,930 --> 00:01:29,010
现在60了是吧啊
48
00:01:29,010 --> 00:01:31,049
还有这个企业股份啊
49
00:01:31,049 --> 00:01:32,909
翻了差不多两倍了是吧
50
00:01:32,909 --> 00:01:35,489
还有啊纽蒙特黄金啊
51
00:01:35,489 --> 00:01:37,489
哈马里黄金都是涨了好多倍
52
00:01:37,489 --> 00:01:40,469
实际上我能骗到现在预测的这些事情呢
53
00:01:40,469 --> 00:01:41,730
基本上都发生了
54
00:01:41,730 --> 00:01:43,450
没有一个例外
55
00:01:43,450 --> 00:01:43,989
为什么呢
56
00:01:43,989 --> 00:01:47,090
因为美国是比中国要提前半年是吧
57
00:01:47,090 --> 00:01:48,269
美国发生的事儿
58
00:01:48,269 --> 00:01:50,549
中国基本上都会发生一遍
59
00:01:50,549 --> 00:01:53,450
因为美国和中国的这种互补关系吧
60
00:01:53,450 --> 00:01:54,989
啊美国它是个消费国啊
61
00:01:54,989 --> 00:01:56,230
它也是工业制造大国
62
00:01:56,230 --> 00:01:58,359
那中国呢是工业制造大国
63
00:01:58,359 --> 00:02:00,640
但是呢目前呢还没有成为消费股
64
00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,030
所以美国中国的债务呢都很高是吧
65
00:02:04,030 --> 00:02:06,750
只是说美国的债务呢啊国家债务比较高
66
00:02:06,750 --> 00:02:09,229
那中国呢啊城市债务比较高
67
00:02:09,229 --> 00:02:11,430
实际上想去解决这个问题
68
00:02:11,430 --> 00:02:13,129
两家都是用同样的策略
69
00:02:13,129 --> 00:02:15,099
就是通过通货膨胀啊
70
00:02:15,099 --> 00:02:15,979
通过通膨胀啊
71
00:02:15,979 --> 00:02:19,219
来去让债务的这种成本呢降低是吧
72
00:02:19,219 --> 00:02:20,900
因为债务无法销售
73
00:02:20,900 --> 00:02:21,740
只能转移嘛
74
00:02:21,740 --> 00:02:24,020
那变性人呢啊通过中国是货币
75
00:02:24,020 --> 00:02:27,060
通过房地产啊参与了大量的这个资金啊
76
00:02:27,060 --> 00:02:28,080
吸收了一部分通胀
77
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,599
那现在房地产的效蓄水效能没了
78
00:02:30,599 --> 00:02:31,680
那只有股市
79
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:36,139
所以股市呢你看从去年中旬到现在涨了多少
80
00:02:36,139 --> 00:02:36,599
对吧
81
00:02:36,599 --> 00:02:38,169
都是涨的那些啊
82
00:02:38,169 --> 00:02:39,008
原材料啊
83
00:02:39,008 --> 00:02:40,609
重金属都这些
84
00:02:40,609 --> 00:02:44,099
然后接下来呢还是一定会大碰撞
85
00:02:44,099 --> 00:02:46,900
这个大碰撞呢会传你的方方面面啊
86
00:02:46,900 --> 00:02:48,189
很快到了消费了
87
00:02:48,189 --> 00:02:49,409
美国的消费领域
88
00:02:49,409 --> 00:02:53,449
实际上过去几年沿袭过去的耐克鞋平均数50
89
00:02:53,449 --> 00:02:54,610
现在到了150了
90
00:02:54,610 --> 00:02:58,229
哎你再看其他的服装啊
91
00:02:58,229 --> 00:03:00,830
食品你可以看一下全面涨
92
00:03:00,830 --> 00:03:03,909
所以中国呢赢下来你会发现一模一样
93
00:03:03,909 --> 00:03:05,429
就是物价
94
00:03:05,429 --> 00:03:07,109
你好像看到了对吧
95
00:03:07,109 --> 00:03:07,769
原材料涨了
96
00:03:07,769 --> 00:03:09,379
这种价格传导终端
97
00:03:09,379 --> 00:03:10,259
去年的时候
98
00:03:10,259 --> 00:03:11,180
很多兄弟质疑我的
99
00:03:11,180 --> 00:03:13,580
原因在于他们的生意很难做啊
100
00:03:13,580 --> 00:03:15,370
说他企业不挣钱啊
101
00:03:15,370 --> 00:03:16,569
收入降低啊
102
00:03:16,569 --> 00:03:16,969
被裁员
103
00:03:16,969 --> 00:03:17,650
被失业
104
00:03:17,650 --> 00:03:18,810
很多人质疑说
105
00:03:18,810 --> 00:03:21,409
你说的这个事情根本不可能发生啊
106
00:03:21,409 --> 00:03:22,889
中国只可能通缩啊
107
00:03:22,889 --> 00:03:23,838
不可能通胀
108
00:03:23,838 --> 00:03:25,599
实际上他还忽略一个问题
109
00:03:25,599 --> 00:03:27,580
就是就我讲的哈
110
00:03:27,580 --> 00:03:29,199
就是富人通胀
111
00:03:29,199 --> 00:03:30,400
穷人通缩啊
112
00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:31,639
小企业倒闭啊
113
00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:32,360
头部涨价
114
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,960
其实我们现在通胀起不来
115
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,180
原因就是供应过大嘛
116
00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:39,389
但是你接下来大部分供应方呢都活不下来了
117
00:03:39,389 --> 00:03:41,729
比如说我们公司对吧
118
00:03:41,729 --> 00:03:44,030
像做这种电商的啊
119
00:03:44,030 --> 00:03:45,750
因为全面废除之后呢
120
00:03:45,750 --> 00:03:47,469
企业没有利润了对吧
121
00:03:47,469 --> 00:03:49,550
然后呢就不招人了啊
122
00:03:49,550 --> 00:03:51,150
员工的话留住那些人也不裁员
123
00:03:51,150 --> 00:03:51,769
也不招
124
00:03:51,769 --> 00:03:53,008
但是呢你个问题来了
125
00:03:53,008 --> 00:03:53,989
就是企业不挣钱
126
00:03:53,989 --> 00:03:55,229
而最后结果是什么呢
127
00:03:55,229 --> 00:03:56,209
减少投资了
128
00:03:56,209 --> 00:03:57,568
那投入减少结果是什么呢
129
00:03:57,568 --> 00:03:58,429
规模缩小嘛
130
00:03:58,429 --> 00:03:59,709
慢慢的就被淘汰掉了
131
00:03:59,709 --> 00:04:02,379
所以实际上很多人说不会发生的
132
00:04:02,379 --> 00:04:05,740
原因在于他用他的体感来去证明这件事
133
00:04:05,740 --> 00:04:06,840
但是我想告诉你
134
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,300
在美国过去的56年
135
00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:12,580
普通人的收入不但没有没有增加
136
00:04:12,580 --> 00:04:13,879
反而都沦为了斩杀线
137
00:04:13,879 --> 00:04:16,970
你看我现在所在的位置叫水晶湾公园
138
00:04:16,970 --> 00:04:19,170
这地方中位数房价是4000万美金
139
00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:20,649
就上面的房价4000万美金
140
00:04:20,649 --> 00:04:24,240
但是妨碍这些老百姓被斩杀吗
141
00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,100
20%老百姓去收入一点没有增加
142
00:04:27,100 --> 00:04:28,980
反而连房产税都交不起
143
00:04:28,980 --> 00:04:29,939
保险都交不起
144
00:04:29,939 --> 00:04:32,860
所以你看你看美国现在非常非常割裂哪了
145
00:04:32,860 --> 00:04:39,339
就是这些穷人的目前连这个保险是吧
146
00:04:39,339 --> 00:04:40,139
交不起之后呢
147
00:04:40,139 --> 00:04:41,540
你看联合保险啊
148
00:04:41,540 --> 00:04:42,540
联合健康啊
149
00:04:42,540 --> 00:04:44,779
包括啊哈门纳这些公司呢
150
00:04:44,779 --> 00:04:47,290
就因为是他们要砍
151
00:04:47,290 --> 00:04:47,829
政府
152
00:04:47,829 --> 00:04:49,720
要不给他们加加钱
153
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,019
就是说白了每年支付嘛5%的增加
154
00:04:52,019 --> 00:04:52,779
不给增加
155
00:04:52,779 --> 00:04:53,600
导致结果是什么呢
156
00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:54,779
他们就要裁掉
157
00:04:54,779 --> 00:04:56,480
砍掉这些无效的啊
158
00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:57,339
很会员
159
00:04:57,339 --> 00:05:00,600
然后联合建康要砍掉300万人
160
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:01,800
其实这个逻辑是什么呢
161
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,160
就是你不给我支付是吧
162
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:04,759
我就不要了
163
00:05:04,759 --> 00:05:05,759
这门课我不做了
164
00:05:05,759 --> 00:05:06,899
但是我必须要涨价
165
00:05:06,899 --> 00:05:08,160
所以你接下来就看到
166
00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,339
美国的保险都在35%学生的
167
00:05:11,339 --> 00:05:13,259
所以各位这是个现实问题
168
00:05:13,259 --> 00:05:14,310
这也是个逻辑问题
169
00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:15,750
我从去年我在会员群里面
170
00:05:15,750 --> 00:05:17,110
给很多兄弟讲的这个逻辑哈
171
00:05:17,110 --> 00:05:19,050
很多兄弟买了这些哈
172
00:05:19,050 --> 00:05:19,829
有色金属
173
00:05:19,829 --> 00:05:20,790
贵金属啊
174
00:05:20,790 --> 00:05:22,029
这些传播公司啊
175
00:05:22,029 --> 00:05:24,430
甚至在我也从全球范围内给他挑了很多啊
176
00:05:24,430 --> 00:05:26,949
世界的黄金公司拿到现在的基本上都翻倍了
177
00:05:26,949 --> 00:05:29,449
实际上你只要是懂得投资之后呢
178
00:05:29,449 --> 00:05:31,769
你最起码的在通货膨胀的面前
179
00:05:31,769 --> 00:05:34,480
你比这个通胀涨得快对吧啊
180
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:35,600
通到10%哈
181
00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,139
你收入涨了百分百
182
00:05:37,139 --> 00:05:37,959
那你无所谓
183
00:05:37,959 --> 00:05:39,060
通道通道不通的
184
00:05:39,060 --> 00:05:42,439
但如果说你只是哈在银行存死前
185
00:05:42,439 --> 00:05:45,339
然后只是喊老老实实呵呵呵
186
00:05:45,339 --> 00:05:46,360
辛苦的亏钱
187
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,129
像我前十几年一样哈
188
00:05:48,129 --> 00:05:50,329
把所有的资资金呀放公司里面来滚
189
00:05:50,329 --> 00:05:51,850
结果来好多也不挣钱
190
00:05:51,850 --> 00:05:53,029
你只会这样的话
191
00:05:53,029 --> 00:05:55,048
你的资产会越来越缩水的
192
00:05:55,048 --> 00:05:56,889
所以如果说你能明白这个逻辑呢
193
00:05:56,889 --> 00:05:59,550
啊你最起码啊在同我们朋友面前
194
00:05:59,550 --> 00:06:01,370
你还可以哈缓一把劲儿
195
00:06:01,370 --> 00:06:02,449
反正我就不理解呢
196
00:06:02,449 --> 00:06:04,540
那可能确确实实会返贫了啊