【视野环球财经】20260410美股 周末谈判，掀桌子吗？瑞银下调NOW评级，软件叙事微调！JPM 6865策略的补充！SOXX、SMH

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是RINO

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现在是美东时间26年4月10号

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周五晚上的8.20分

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今天呢是本周的最后一个交易日

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四大指数是缩量震荡

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等待周末谈判的进展

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那么今天的板块方面呢

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像什么材料科技

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还有非必需品上涨啊

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另外呢像什么必需品呀

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还有医疗保健啊

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包括金融的表现都是比较的差

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今天的美元呢是连续第五个交易日走低

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呃

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现在市场的这个焦点呢

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还是集中在周六举行的美伊会谈上啊

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呃根据最新的报道呢

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伊朗表示说啊

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如果先决条件得到接受

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双方将启动会谈

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与此同时呢

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川普告诉纽约时报啊

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如果巴基斯坦和平谈判失败

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美国军舰正在重新装载最好的弹药

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以恢复对伊朗的打击

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双方在嘴上啊是互不相让啊

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但是脚已经开始行动了

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伊朗国家电视台周五报道说呢

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已经是抵达了伊斯兰堡

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准备在巴基斯坦首都与美国举行停火谈判

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另外美国的副总统万斯啊

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今天也已经启程前往巴基斯坦

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同行的还有特使威德科夫和川普的女婿库什纳

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说明这个谈判呢还是会如期进行的啊

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关于这个周末的谈判呃

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不知道大家是怎么看的啊

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会不会掀桌子呢

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欢迎大家在咱们的评论区发表评论啊

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猜猜看

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反正呢周末闲着也是闲着

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特别是今天这个行情呢走的也是比较的无聊啊

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强的仍旧是之前比较强的那几只股票

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弱的呢仍旧是整个的软件板块

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那么等会儿呢会说一下关于软件板块呃

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瑞银下调了这个ServiceNow的评级啊

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它其中下调的理由诶

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大家看一看

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其实和之前的这个AI颠覆软件

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它的叙事有一点改变啊

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看看大家能不能够认同呃

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另外呢还有就是关于霍尔木兹海峡的

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其他的一些实质性的进展

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也跟大家还是带一下呃

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在霍尔木兹海峡的通行方面呢

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根据路透社的报道

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过去的24个小时呢有三艘邮轮呃

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其中呢是有一艘可以装载200万吨啊

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200万桶原油的超级邮轮啊

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一艘加油船

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还有一艘小型游轮啊

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一共有三艘游轮离开了伊朗水域

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那么在过去的一天还有四艘干散货船

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其中包括一艘从伊朗装载铁矿石

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开往中国的船啊

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已经是驶离了伊朗水域

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这是目前路透报道的

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在过去24个小时之内的啊

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有七艘船离开

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接下来我们看一下今天的经济数据啊

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看一下3月的CPI额

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这个3月的CPI

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说实话的这个确实是预期还挺准的啊

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呃3月的c p i c pi呢是呃

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总体的这个月环比是上涨了0.9%

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符合预期

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但是呢大幅超出上个月的0.3呃

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另外呢还有同比呢是上涨了3.3%

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这个也是符合语气呃

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但是也大幅超出了前值的2.4

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最主要的原因是受到美伊战争后

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能源价格飙升的推动啊

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为什么这么说呢

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因为剔除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI

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大家看到其实表现的还行

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对不对

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也没有说增长太多

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环比涨了0.2

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预期是0.3啊

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这个是和上个月持平的

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同比呢是涨了2.6

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低于预期啊

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只比前值高那么一点点啊

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所以呢主要是油价推升了CPI好

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第二个数据

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看一下密歇根大学的消费者的信心指数

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这个信心指数呢是大幅下滑啊

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其中从53.3掉到了57呃

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47.6

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远低于预期的52

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商业状况指数从55.8降到了50.1

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预期指数呢是从51.7降到了46.1

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那么呃由于这个中东这边的战火正在燃烧

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所以整个啊大家对于通胀的预期

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看起来也是呃飞得比较高啊

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一年期的通胀已经是从3.8L到了4.8啊

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大幅超出预期的4.3

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然后5年期的通胀是从3.2L到了3.4啊

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小幅低于预期的3.5

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好这个呢就是今天的一些简单经济数据啊

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接下来和大家讲一讲关于软件的这个

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瑞银的这个评级

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呃大家可以看到啊

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今天整个的软件板块仍旧是相当糟糕的啊

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这个扩展软件IGVETF呢

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今天又掉了2.57

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整个的软件从呃持仓前十大这个持仓里边啊

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一直到11啊

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我都把它列在这里呃

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第一大持仓是微软啊

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我这里写在上面

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除了甲骨文

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除了app

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其他的继续下跌啊

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真的是非常的惨

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呃那么软件这边咱们之前讲过呃

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主要的一个利空的叙事是AI会颠覆软件啊

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AI的运用呢

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会让大家觉得软件这个东西好像没什么用了

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对吧

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后来不是说AI可以辅助软件吗

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所以呢在反弹的这段时间

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那么趋势又发生了改变

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那么最近呢今天看到瑞银的这个评级啊

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他的这个描述呢又有一点点的变化啊

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为什么看空呢

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啊我给大家看一下

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他为什么下调这个ServiceNow的瓶颈

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啊他是这么说的啊

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他说呢直到本周

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那么ServiceNow呢

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一直是睿移中唯一一家获得买入评级的

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应用软件公司啊

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这还是看看的比较好的

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就他一家他们非常看好

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那么迄今为止呢

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我们一直认为

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与其他应用软件公司相比

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ServiceNow在人工智能时代拥有更加的竞争优势

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但是这种观点已经有所动摇

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为什么呢

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瑞银分析师在一份研究报告中啊

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将评级从买入下调至中性

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并且将目标价从170大幅下调至100块

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他们说这家工作流程自动化公司

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不会被人工智能取代啊

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大家看清楚啊

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他不是说被颠不颠覆的问题

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说不会取代

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但是那为什么下调呢

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因为企业也不愿为非人工智能工具买单

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瑞英表示说啊

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由于人工智能相关数据和基础设施支出激增

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财富500强企业在非人工智能

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软件方面的预算面临压力

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那么ServiceNow积极主动的参与和整合人工智能

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但是根据他们和客户的调查显示呢

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客户没有听到对这个软件的强烈的支持

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他其实这个话是什么意思呢

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就是说很多的企业在采用工具的时候

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他们会优先寻找强的AI相关的方面的

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这个这个产品

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也就是把钱呢

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比方说都有只有100块钱预算

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那这100块钱往哪花呢

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优先花在和AI相关的强关联性的这种工具上

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那么像传统的软件

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它这个支出相当于是被压缩了

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这个就是它下调ServiceNow评级的原因

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他认为在这种竞争压力下

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他们可能会出现增速下滑呀

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啊比方说利润率过低呀等等

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所以从170调到了100

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大家看到没有

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这个叙事和之前的颠覆不一样了

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现在发现颠覆是不会颠覆的

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但是呢企业支出就那么多

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用在A上

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那么用在B上可能就少

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A多B就少对吧

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那这就是他的一个下调逻辑啊

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当然这只是瑞银的一家之言

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华尔街呢有其他持有不同的意见啊

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比方说法国巴黎银行的分析师

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上个月刚刚把ServiceNow的评级从中性

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上调到优于大盘

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并且说呢

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这个公司他们自己呀也有人工智能产品

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而且在四季度的年度

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合同价值已经超过了6亿美元

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也就是他们自己也有工具啊

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未来你还是得反过头来会用我的啊

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这是他们的上调逻辑

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只不过呢现在这些软件公司自己的AI工具

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和市面上那些比较领先的AI公司来讲呃

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会要稍微落后一些

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所以现在的很多的软件公司

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它在开发自己的AI的工具的时候

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无非就是速度还有效率

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还有企业认不认啊

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这个是目前的市场一个比较模糊的地带

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呃

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不管什么原因

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但是很明显的已经看到市场在大幅的买半导体

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买半导体就是看好人工智能继续蓬勃发展嘛

218
00:09:43,870 --> 00:09:47,529
那么在不断的你说他是做空也好

219
00:09:47,529 --> 00:09:49,639
你说他是逃跑也好

220
00:09:49,639 --> 00:09:52,360
你说它是估值的压缩也好

221
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,000
实际的结果就是软件确实是又被卖

222
00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:01,340
在2月份的那个低点啊

223
00:10:01,340 --> 00:10:03,019
这是非常糟糕的啊

224
00:10:03,019 --> 00:10:05,700
那么safe now这边呢其实也是一样

225
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:07,580
今天被调了评级之后

226
00:10:07,580 --> 00:10:09,599
一口气跌了七个多点啊

227
00:10:09,599 --> 00:10:10,558
非常的糟糕啊

228
00:10:10,558 --> 00:10:14,250
我把这个位置下方的位置给大家又更了一些

229
00:10:14,250 --> 00:10:16,789
82~92啊

230
00:10:16,789 --> 00:10:18,169
眼看着要破了

231
00:10:18,169 --> 00:10:19,830
再往下掉呢

232
00:10:19,830 --> 00:10:25,070
呃说实话前面的这些比较久远的支撑有效没效

233
00:10:25,070 --> 00:10:25,789
很难讲啊

234
00:10:25,789 --> 00:10:28,570
通常像这么多年前支撑的呃

235
00:10:28,570 --> 00:10:30,409
我通常都会给他打个折扣

236
00:10:30,409 --> 00:10:32,750
我写在这里呢也只是给大家做个参考

237
00:10:32,750 --> 00:10:34,090
下面会怎么发展呢

238
00:10:34,090 --> 00:10:37,328
那要全凭华尔街的叙事怎么去做了

239
00:10:37,328 --> 00:10:39,188
或许呢砸到足够多了

240
00:10:39,188 --> 00:10:40,749
他觉得便宜又可以减了

241
00:10:40,749 --> 00:10:42,068
然后呢又把它买回来对吧

242
00:10:42,068 --> 00:10:42,989
又说啊

243
00:10:42,989 --> 00:10:44,279
那他的业绩还不错

244
00:10:44,279 --> 00:10:45,740
他呢现在没有受到冲击

245
00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,950
自己也迎头赶上呃

246
00:10:47,950 --> 00:10:49,970
所以现在的情况呢

247
00:10:49,970 --> 00:10:51,610
整个的软件呃

248
00:10:51,610 --> 00:10:56,489
在这种呃泥沙俱下的整体的这个下跌推动下

249
00:10:56,489 --> 00:10:59,308
你说你单独想看好哪家公司

250
00:10:59,308 --> 00:11:01,029
说他一定还行与不行

251
00:11:01,029 --> 00:11:02,210
就不是那个问题

252
00:11:02,210 --> 00:11:05,340
我们说当一个板块都被卖掉的时候

253
00:11:05,340 --> 00:11:09,440
那其实这里边还是属于资金流和信心的问题

254
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:10,759
还有一些估值的问题

255
00:11:10,759 --> 00:11:12,470
相当于是被动型的

256
00:11:12,470 --> 00:11:14,450
比方说被动型的指数基金对吧

257
00:11:14,450 --> 00:11:16,818
还有还持有某些成成份股的

258
00:11:16,818 --> 00:11:18,119
一看评级下调

259
00:11:18,119 --> 00:11:18,739
减配嘛

260
00:11:18,739 --> 00:11:19,318
一减配

261
00:11:19,318 --> 00:11:20,158
整体减配

262
00:11:20,158 --> 00:11:23,178
其实又回到了之前那一轮的下跌逻辑上啊

263
00:11:23,178 --> 00:11:25,090
这个就要等着抛压

264
00:11:25,090 --> 00:11:26,649
把这个抛完对吧

265
00:11:26,649 --> 00:11:29,129
抛到觉得足够便宜了

266
00:11:29,129 --> 00:11:33,090
已经是威胁不到这个它们的增长的时候啊

267
00:11:33,090 --> 00:11:34,129
足够的便宜对吧

268
00:11:34,129 --> 00:11:35,889
你在股价上信心没有了

269
00:11:35,889 --> 00:11:37,220
就在股价上打折呗

270
00:11:37,220 --> 00:11:39,870
那么至于很多朋友说能不能逆势去抄

271
00:11:39,870 --> 00:11:40,870
那看你了

272
00:11:40,870 --> 00:11:43,549
看你自己能承受多大的下跌幅度了对吧

273
00:11:43,549 --> 00:11:46,950
因为很明显这个是明显没有任何止跌形态的啊

274
00:11:46,950 --> 00:11:47,730
完全没有

275
00:11:47,730 --> 00:11:52,889
今天整个的这里边只有app走的相对强一点

276
00:11:52,889 --> 00:11:54,470
但是成交量也是有限

277
00:11:54,470 --> 00:11:57,769
最主要的是它下方的这个强支撑区域

278
00:11:57,769 --> 00:11:59,610
相对密集一点啊

279
00:11:59,610 --> 00:12:02,110
或或会获得比较多的技术性的支撑

280
00:12:02,110 --> 00:12:04,450
呃所以看上去表现的强一点

281
00:12:04,450 --> 00:12:06,009
但是能不能抄呢

282
00:12:06,009 --> 00:12:07,850
呃这个我个人是没什么把握的

283
00:12:07,850 --> 00:12:09,720
老实讲像这个像这种情况

284
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:11,399
整个板块都比较弱的情况下

285
00:12:11,399 --> 00:12:12,600
我个人是没什么把握的啊

286
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,039
大家自己看你的风险承受力好吧

287
00:12:15,039 --> 00:12:17,639
因为再往下是连续两个强支撑啊

288
00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:19,200
离比离得比较密集而已

289
00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:19,879
仅此而已

290
00:12:19,879 --> 00:12:22,759
就比之前有一些股票的技术性

291
00:12:22,759 --> 00:12:24,970
技术面上稍好那么一点啊

292
00:12:24,970 --> 00:12:26,230
还有一个呢是甲骨文

293
00:12:26,230 --> 00:12:28,309
今天也是小幅收涨啊

294
00:12:28,309 --> 00:12:31,480
但是它的收盘价也几乎是在去

295
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,299
这个今年2月份的这个低点了

296
00:12:33,299 --> 00:12:34,440
都快到了对吧

297
00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:35,159
虽然是涨上涨

298
00:12:35,159 --> 00:12:36,309
但基本上是个横盘

299
00:12:36,309 --> 00:12:39,179
他的问题也是下方的强支撑

300
00:12:39,179 --> 00:12:40,860
密集度稍微的高一点

301
00:12:40,860 --> 00:12:41,820
仅此而已

302
00:12:41,820 --> 00:12:43,700
所以看上去呢跌幅会少一点

303
00:12:43,700 --> 00:12:45,740
但是后面会不会接着被砸

304
00:12:45,740 --> 00:12:50,379
那要看华尔街的这个做空的力量到底如何好

305
00:12:50,379 --> 00:12:55,519
这个是软件目前面临的短期的资金的抛压呃

306
00:12:55,519 --> 00:12:59,360
另外呢走的强的费办给大家讲一下

307
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,198
呃今天的费城半导体的呃

308
00:13:04,198 --> 00:13:07,818
这个SOXX和另外一个SMH呢

309
00:13:07,818 --> 00:13:10,019
都是网上打高点啊

310
00:13:10,019 --> 00:13:12,980
这是一个很明显的半导体在持续的拉升啊

311
00:13:12,980 --> 00:13:14,720
包括像英伟达也在往上走对吧

312
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,639
也也是面临着即将要突破的一个情况

313
00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:19,460
我把位置给大家做个更新

314
00:13:19,460 --> 00:13:23,679
呃在经过一轮的回撤反反转之后呢

315
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:27,220
半导体的呃支撑在现在这个位置啊

316
00:13:27,220 --> 00:13:29,200
已经变得比之前强多了啊

317
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:30,440
已经有一些变化了

318
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,779
目前350~368是中等支撑

319
00:13:33,779 --> 00:13:37,500
336~345是强支撑

320
00:13:37,500 --> 00:13:38,000
好吧

321
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,980
这是比较强的支撑在这里啊

322
00:13:39,980 --> 00:13:41,600
所以呢你就可以看

323
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:45,480
如果半导体没有跌破336之前啊

324
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:46,320
甚至都350的

325
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:46,919
跌不破之前

326
00:13:46,919 --> 00:13:48,759
那一定还是维持强势对吧

327
00:13:48,759 --> 00:13:50,399
那还是市场高看一眼

328
00:13:50,399 --> 00:13:52,759
是市场上最强的一个板块好

329
00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:55,278
另外呢像呃SMH

330
00:13:55,969 --> 00:13:58,769
他的位置呢是409~419啊

331
00:13:58,769 --> 00:14:01,589
这个地方如果都都没有这个跌破

332
00:14:01,589 --> 00:14:03,309
那就代表着太强了对吧

333
00:14:03,309 --> 00:14:05,789
上方呢想要做头部要跌破387啊

334
00:14:05,789 --> 00:14:06,950
所以离得也比较远

335
00:14:06,950 --> 00:14:09,580
那现在呢就是市场强的板块

336
00:14:09,580 --> 00:14:11,139
就会更多的吸引资金嘛

337
00:14:11,139 --> 00:14:13,330
啊这个逻辑其实也比较简单

338
00:14:13,330 --> 00:14:15,649
毕竟市场现在其他的东西没什么可炒的

339
00:14:15,649 --> 00:14:17,210
也只有半导体呃

340
00:14:17,210 --> 00:14:18,370
它的支出啊

341
00:14:18,370 --> 00:14:19,889
呃包括利润率啊

342
00:14:19,889 --> 00:14:22,470
包括热点呢热度在这上面啊

343
00:14:22,470 --> 00:14:25,970
所以这就是当前的一个我们说无奈吧

344
00:14:25,970 --> 00:14:28,240
市场的一个无奈选择啊

345
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,120
好呃这个是两个半导体

346
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:31,399
呃

347
00:14:31,399 --> 00:14:36,509
另外呢最后我想再简单的说一下关于呃大盘的

348
00:14:36,509 --> 00:14:38,029
关于一个策略的问题啊

349
00:14:38,029 --> 00:14:38,990
很多人不太理解

350
00:14:38,990 --> 00:14:41,360
我跟大家稍微解释一下啊

351
00:14:41,799 --> 00:14:43,080
呃我们之前讲过

352
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,000
j p m collar的一个策略的上限的一个S扣

353
00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:47,399
是在6865对吧

354
00:14:47,399 --> 00:14:48,279
很多朋友会说

355
00:14:48,279 --> 00:14:51,539
那他为什么发这个呃分析师的评级

356
00:14:51,539 --> 00:14:53,779
说呃这个那个分析师的更新

357
00:14:53,779 --> 00:14:56,440
说战术性看涨要突破7000的

358
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:57,659
他说这不是矛盾吗

359
00:14:57,659 --> 00:15:00,179
呃这个里边大家要理解一件事情啊

360
00:15:00,179 --> 00:15:01,220
这个策略

361
00:15:01,220 --> 00:15:02,820
jpm collar的策略

362
00:15:02,820 --> 00:15:08,500
指的是它其中的一些封闭的这个基金啊

363
00:15:08,500 --> 00:15:12,740
就是主要是面向着合格投资者和机构的基金

364
00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:16,909
大型基金大概有200到300亿的这个基金的

365
00:15:16,909 --> 00:15:21,789
他们的固定策略和他们分析师发的那个

366
00:15:21,789 --> 00:15:23,750
看不看涨的自营策略

367
00:15:23,750 --> 00:15:25,600
这是两件事情啊

368
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,019
他你不要把它混到一起

369
00:15:27,019 --> 00:15:29,519
他们自己有有管理的这个基金

370
00:15:29,519 --> 00:15:30,399
管理的基金

371
00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:31,970
他需要稳妥安排

372
00:15:31,970 --> 00:15:33,529
它是固定策略

373
00:15:33,529 --> 00:15:35,850
在某些点位开仓比例啊

374
00:15:35,850 --> 00:15:38,120
这个我们在呃之前上个星期上

375
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:39,759
上个星期的会员节目里面

376
00:15:39,759 --> 00:15:42,519
专门去讲解了这个j p m collar的这个东西

377
00:15:42,519 --> 00:15:42,879
是怎么

378
00:15:42,879 --> 00:15:44,019
它是怎么运转的啊

379
00:15:44,019 --> 00:15:47,139
所以他看能够突破7000

380
00:15:47,139 --> 00:15:50,440
和他这个C扣在6865是不矛盾的

381
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:51,480
这是两个东西

382
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,340
两个产品它有自营盘

383
00:15:53,340 --> 00:15:54,649
自营盘的交易盘

384
00:15:54,649 --> 00:15:55,970
跟他那个是没关系的

385
00:15:55,970 --> 00:15:57,808
那这个是属于基金啊

386
00:15:57,808 --> 00:15:59,269
那我们为什么要讲给他

387
00:15:59,269 --> 00:16:00,609
大家看这个点位呢

388
00:16:00,609 --> 00:16:03,589
是因为j p m collar的这个基金的额度比较大

389
00:16:03,589 --> 00:16:06,428
它在这个位置呢会形成比较明显的

390
00:16:06,428 --> 00:16:07,589
和做市商也好

391
00:16:07,589 --> 00:16:08,469
和伽马也好

392
00:16:08,469 --> 00:16:11,740
相应的一些属于波动率控制的呃

393
00:16:11,740 --> 00:16:15,340
这种这种呃控制不代表说他过不了啊

394
00:16:15,340 --> 00:16:16,860
不代表说这个地方就一定过不了

395
00:16:16,860 --> 00:16:18,799
或者6150就一定跌不穿

396
00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:21,960
只是他们认为的大概率在这个范围之内

397
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,259
就算涨破了6865

398
00:16:24,259 --> 00:16:27,320
他们这个策略实际上因为是以正股持仓嘛

399
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:28,600
他只是少赚钱

400
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,399
他也不赔钱啊

401
00:16:30,399 --> 00:16:31,799
大家要理解这个东西啊

402
00:16:31,799 --> 00:16:33,840
所以这个是不同的策略啊

403
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,719
并不代表着他们呃

404
00:16:35,719 --> 00:16:37,879
这个一边S扣6865

405
00:16:37,879 --> 00:16:39,198
一边在看涨7000

406
00:16:39,198 --> 00:16:40,278
这不神经病嘛对吧

407
00:16:40,278 --> 00:16:41,318
没有精神分裂啊

408
00:16:41,318 --> 00:16:42,178
人家没有

409
00:16:42,178 --> 00:16:44,960
人家本来就是两两个策略在并行运行

410
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:45,700
互不干扰

411
00:16:45,700 --> 00:16:47,100
好给大家讲清楚啊

412
00:16:47,100 --> 00:16:49,100
免得大家说不太理解什么意思

413
00:16:49,100 --> 00:16:51,120
你要想深入了解他们的策略运行

414
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:51,980
到底怎么回事的

415
00:16:51,980 --> 00:16:53,120
大家可以看一下

416
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,049
我们上上个星期的这个会员节目啊

417
00:16:56,049 --> 00:16:58,440
好这是jpm qua的情况

418
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,559
总体上呢大盘这边呃

419
00:17:00,559 --> 00:17:02,240
我们还是要谈到啊

420
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,740
尽管现在呢离上方的压力突破不远

421
00:17:04,740 --> 00:17:08,269
但是你必须CCTA是会买

422
00:17:08,269 --> 00:17:11,069
但前提是消息面得有利好啊

423
00:17:11,069 --> 00:17:14,190
周末的这个谈判能不能谈得拢

424
00:17:14,470 --> 00:17:16,789
能不能够释放利好消息啊

425
00:17:16,789 --> 00:17:20,130
或者阶段性的释放部分的利好

426
00:17:20,130 --> 00:17:21,839
我们不要求一次性谈成

427
00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:24,519
只要求能够缓和局势

428
00:17:24,519 --> 00:17:27,000
更多的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡啊

429
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,779
这个对市场来讲就足够了

430
00:17:28,779 --> 00:17:31,200
所以这个是前提

431
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,759
有这个消息面的利好前提

432
00:17:33,759 --> 00:17:35,240
夹着CTA的推动

433
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,640
大家呢相当于有资金帮你拖一下

434
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,119
大家的信心又回来了

435
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,480
主动资金再买一下

436
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:44,029
他才能够去实现真正的反转突破

437
00:17:44,029 --> 00:17:45,789
那这个条件不具备

438
00:17:45,789 --> 00:17:48,609
即便有CCTA下个星期买400多亿

439
00:17:48,609 --> 00:17:50,450
那他也不一定推得过去啊

440
00:17:50,450 --> 00:17:51,690
他卖出去

441
00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:53,730
如果有人不看好后面的谈判结果

442
00:17:53,730 --> 00:17:55,269
那CCTA在那爆买

443
00:17:55,269 --> 00:17:56,829
正好别人出货对吧

444
00:17:56,829 --> 00:17:59,439
互相这个对视一眼对吧

445
00:17:59,439 --> 00:18:00,019
他在买

446
00:18:00,019 --> 00:18:01,019
然后人家在卖

447
00:18:01,019 --> 00:18:02,650
互道一声SB对吧

448
00:18:02,650 --> 00:18:03,869
不就是这个情况吗

449
00:18:03,869 --> 00:18:07,450
所以你要你要看这里有一些这个条件的配合啊

450
00:18:07,450 --> 00:18:08,690
所以很多朋友看到说啊

451
00:18:08,690 --> 00:18:10,160
现在离得这么近了

452
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:11,619
是不是一定会反转啊

453
00:18:11,619 --> 00:18:14,799
这个目前呃不能说这种非常确定的

454
00:18:14,799 --> 00:18:15,680
大概率的事情

455
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,980
只能讲我们说有帮助

456
00:18:17,980 --> 00:18:20,519
但是能不能过看这个谈判结果

457
00:18:20,519 --> 00:18:22,650
这个是更重要的一件事情哈

458
00:18:22,650 --> 00:18:24,130
反之你要可以这么想

459
00:18:24,130 --> 00:18:25,569
那谈判结果不加的话

460
00:18:25,569 --> 00:18:26,930
啪这个地方马上是顶部

461
00:18:26,930 --> 00:18:31,710
下个星期保证直接就这个呃保护就加上来

462
00:18:31,710 --> 00:18:33,710
直接最近涨得好的一些股票

463
00:18:33,710 --> 00:18:36,529
马上原地可能往下就掉就跳水啊

464
00:18:36,529 --> 00:18:38,269
这个这个东西我们就要看消息了

465
00:18:38,269 --> 00:18:40,789
最近的这个行情呢都是这么个推动方法

466
00:18:40,789 --> 00:18:45,910
所以呢耐心等待周末的这个消息面的进展啊

467
00:18:45,910 --> 00:18:47,430
大家也多看看新闻什么的

468
00:18:47,430 --> 00:18:49,089
也别也别太焦虑

469
00:18:49,089 --> 00:18:51,799
因为我们讲过投资这些事情啊

470
00:18:51,799 --> 00:18:53,509
很多事情咱们也决定不了对吧

471
00:18:53,509 --> 00:18:56,650
那那人家都是提前35分钟下单

472
00:18:56,650 --> 00:18:57,710
咱们怎怎么决定呢

473
00:18:57,710 --> 00:19:00,150
咱们怎么跟跟人家那什么的对吧

474
00:19:00,150 --> 00:19:01,089
无所谓的对吧

475
00:19:01,089 --> 00:19:04,230
我们只能跟哼跟最后呢只能说八卦一下

476
00:19:04,230 --> 00:19:05,838
吐槽一下呃

477
00:19:05,838 --> 00:19:09,699
那人家这个市场上老是有一些人搞这些事情

478
00:19:09,699 --> 00:19:13,798
那回头你要是ACC不查FTFFC呃

479
00:19:13,798 --> 00:19:15,298
TTC不查的话

480
00:19:15,298 --> 00:19:17,838
那他们存在的价值说实话也意义不大了对吧

481
00:19:17,838 --> 00:19:19,619
那这个市场只会越来越乱

482
00:19:19,619 --> 00:19:23,170
所以咱们只能说看在心里边

483
00:19:23,170 --> 00:19:24,750
心里明白就完了对吧

484
00:19:24,750 --> 00:19:28,279
很多东西呢你也没必要说一定怎么样怎么样

485
00:19:28,279 --> 00:19:30,420
那他真的如果变成了什么

486
00:19:30,420 --> 00:19:33,880
变成了那个呃未来的老鼠仓横行

487
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,480
那那就那就代表什么

488
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,119
那就代表完蛋了对吧

489
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,769
那就代表着如果每天都有老鼠仓

490
00:19:39,769 --> 00:19:42,609
那这个美股可能就不是现在这个样子了啊

491
00:19:42,609 --> 00:19:45,039
那就是另外一个市场了对吧

492
00:19:45,039 --> 00:19:46,220
好额

493
00:19:46,220 --> 00:19:47,799
这个呢就是我们今天啊带给大家的

494
00:19:47,799 --> 00:19:49,980
关于这个市场的一些内容的

495
00:19:49,980 --> 00:19:53,138
这个简单的呃这个更新啊

496
00:19:53,138 --> 00:19:55,239
呃说一下周末的会员节目啊

497
00:19:55,239 --> 00:19:57,878
呃因为经常呢会讲到我们以前技术

498
00:19:57,878 --> 00:19:59,019
在讲技术面的时候

499
00:19:59,019 --> 00:20:00,138
讲到很多支撑啊

500
00:20:00,138 --> 00:20:02,029
压力的判断方法呃

501
00:20:02,029 --> 00:20:04,509
还有很多朋友呢还想了解一下关于这个强弱

502
00:20:04,509 --> 00:20:06,190
我到底是怎么去区分的

503
00:20:06,190 --> 00:20:08,990
呃我把我的一些经验呢给大家分享一下啊

504
00:20:08,990 --> 00:20:12,410
就是怎么样去判断支撑压力的强弱的

505
00:20:12,410 --> 00:20:14,869
一些相对的一些原则啊

506
00:20:14,869 --> 00:20:16,740
一些原则很有经验呃

507
00:20:16,740 --> 00:20:18,400
和大家讲讲这个话题

508
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,460
也是很多朋友说没有系统讲过

509
00:20:20,460 --> 00:20:22,500
因为我都是在技术呃

510
00:20:22,500 --> 00:20:25,569
技术分析的那些视频里边分开讲的啊

511
00:20:25,569 --> 00:20:29,740
所以我尝试着把它做一些总结和归纳好

512
00:20:29,740 --> 00:20:31,160
然后到了周末的时候呢

513
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:32,859
周日能够回去更新一下

514
00:20:32,859 --> 00:20:34,630
这个RAO答疑的社区帖子啊

515
00:20:34,630 --> 00:20:36,109
如果大家加入了这个级别呢

516
00:20:36,109 --> 00:20:40,079
请到社区里面找一个带有QA图片的帖子

517
00:20:40,079 --> 00:20:41,559
有问题的在里边提问啊

518
00:20:41,559 --> 00:20:44,319
那么我都会集中抽空回答一下

519
00:20:44,319 --> 00:20:46,798
周末的时候会稍微压一下啊

520
00:20:46,798 --> 00:20:50,099
因为周末的时候需要也需要这个休息好

521
00:20:50,099 --> 00:20:52,740
这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

522
00:20:52,740 --> 00:20:55,640
那么非常感谢大家持续不断的点赞

523
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:56,940
评论和转发啊

524
00:20:56,940 --> 00:20:58,759
祝大家周末愉快

525
00:20:58,759 --> 00:21:02,099
希望呢周末大家两边别掀桌子啊

526
00:21:02,099 --> 00:21:03,000
要掀桌子

527
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,079
拍拍桌子就可以了

528
00:21:04,079 --> 00:21:05,160
掀桌子没必要啊

529
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:06,799
那还这个白跑一趟

530
00:21:06,799 --> 00:21:07,650
何必呢

531
00:21:07,650 --> 00:21:08,450
好啊

532
00:21:08,450 --> 00:21:09,369
那我们今天到这儿啊

533
00:21:09,369 --> 00:21:11,329
咱们就下个星期的同一时间

534
00:21:11,329 --> 00:21:13,599
咱们不见不散

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