BV1iD9mBwEoD · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:13,720 大家好 2 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:14,480 欢迎回到娜娜说 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,379 美股今天是4月28号 4 00:00:16,379 --> 00:00:16,839 周日 5 00:00:16,839 --> 00:00:19,260 在周三科技巨头交卷之前呢 6 00:00:19,260 --> 00:00:20,940 资金观望情绪去浓厚 7 00:00:20,940 --> 00:00:23,160 油价和美债收益率走高 8 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:24,969 给美股市场带来压力 9 00:00:27,250 --> 00:00:29,050 板块出现明显分化 10 00:00:29,050 --> 00:00:30,710 科技股普遍走低 11 00:00:30,710 --> 00:00:33,329 油气医疗保险板块上涨 12 00:00:33,329 --> 00:00:34,850 纽约时报报道称 13 00:00:34,850 --> 00:00:38,450 川普对伊朗提出的三阶段谈判方案不满意 14 00:00:38,450 --> 00:00:42,530 该提案呢要求美国先结束对伊朗的海上封锁 15 00:00:42,530 --> 00:00:44,229 将如何处置啊 16 00:00:44,229 --> 00:00:47,128 伊朗核计划的问题先搁置一旁 17 00:00:47,128 --> 00:00:49,609 伊朗此前就已经多次拒绝了 18 00:00:49,609 --> 00:00:52,249 美国提出的暂停核计划 19 00:00:52,249 --> 00:00:55,039 并交出高浓缩铀库存的方案 20 00:00:55,039 --> 00:00:56,820 随后CNN报道称 21 00:00:56,820 --> 00:00:58,460 据知情人士透露 22 00:00:58,460 --> 00:01:01,140 调解三方谈判进程的巴基斯坦 23 00:01:01,140 --> 00:01:04,989 预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗的修订版提议 24 00:01:09,209 --> 00:01:10,689 先返回德黑兰 25 00:01:10,689 --> 00:01:13,700 与伊朗国内的军方高层进行磋商 26 00:01:13,700 --> 00:01:16,180 这个过程进展的会比较缓慢 27 00:01:16,180 --> 00:01:19,579 反正天天都是各路的消息人士透露 28 00:01:19,579 --> 00:01:21,890 这个透露那个的有个鸟用啊 29 00:01:21,890 --> 00:01:23,730 中国的有关部门 30 00:01:23,730 --> 00:01:25,310 美国的消息人士 31 00:01:25,310 --> 00:01:28,200 这是世界上两大最神秘的组织哈 32 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,659 一个呢专门用来甩锅打太极 33 00:01:30,659 --> 00:01:33,759 另外一个呢专门配合炒股画K线 34 00:01:33,759 --> 00:01:35,519 国际油价继续攀升 35 00:01:35,519 --> 00:01:37,438 日内一度冲上100美元了 36 00:01:37,438 --> 00:01:40,469 随着消息人士的护盘又被压下去 37 00:01:40,469 --> 00:01:42,969 两边的嘴炮说啥都是假的哈 38 00:01:42,969 --> 00:01:46,379 霍尔木兹海峡什么时候能够走船 39 00:01:46,379 --> 00:01:47,340 那才是真的 40 00:01:47,340 --> 00:01:49,659 但是现在已经没人在意这事情 41 00:01:51,719 --> 00:01:54,420 更多还是因为OpenAI小作文砸盘 42 00:01:54,420 --> 00:01:58,549 最近的AI硬件经历了一段时间的暴力上涨 43 00:02:00,469 --> 00:02:01,500 油光满面哈 44 00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:03,540 明天又要集中考试了嘛 45 00:02:03,540 --> 00:02:04,519 怕不及格 46 00:02:04,519 --> 00:02:07,370 就接着小作文来先出一批货 47 00:02:07,370 --> 00:02:08,969 华尔街日报报道称 48 00:02:08,969 --> 00:02:10,830 OpenAI增长失速 49 00:02:10,830 --> 00:02:14,050 最新业绩表现没达到多项内部目标 50 00:02:14,050 --> 00:02:16,289 包括原定于去年底实现叉 51 00:02:16,289 --> 00:02:20,030 GBT每周10亿用户的计划以及收入目标 52 00:02:20,030 --> 00:02:23,419 原因之一呢是竞争对手ENTROPICK 53 00:02:23,419 --> 00:02:27,829 在编程以及企业市场持续抢占份额 54 00:02:27,829 --> 00:02:33,199 用户流失率是因为谷歌GEMINI的崛起而持续承压 55 00:02:33,199 --> 00:02:37,520 公司CFO已经向公司其他高层表示担忧 56 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,270 如果收入增长速度不够快的话 57 00:02:40,270 --> 00:02:42,210 公司未来可能无力承担 58 00:02:42,210 --> 00:02:45,120 后续算理合同的巨额支出 59 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,800 这个消息打击了3000如火如荼的AI蓄势哈 60 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:50,080 在财报季前 61 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:55,120 重新引发了对科技巨头们巨额AI支出 62 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,629 回报率和可持续性的担忧 63 00:02:57,629 --> 00:03:01,289 尽管OpenAI很快就反驳了这一篇报道 64 00:03:01,289 --> 00:03:04,770 称公司的广告业务与企业业务火力全开 65 00:03:04,770 --> 00:03:06,210 正在持续增长 66 00:03:06,210 --> 00:03:09,810 但是open a的几个核心合作伙伴 67 00:03:09,810 --> 00:03:11,030 包括软银 68 00:03:11,030 --> 00:03:11,750 甲骨文 69 00:03:11,750 --> 00:03:12,169 Amd 70 00:03:12,169 --> 00:03:14,439 他们几个股价呢都出现了下跌 71 00:03:14,439 --> 00:03:17,400 其实华尔街日报报道的这个事情哈 72 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,580 并不是什么新的消息 73 00:03:19,580 --> 00:03:21,219 不是捏造的 74 00:03:21,219 --> 00:03:23,259 从去年11月以来呢 75 00:03:23,259 --> 00:03:25,860 与OpenAI相关的一揽子公司 76 00:03:25,860 --> 00:03:28,879 明显就股价表现跑输同行 77 00:03:28,879 --> 00:03:30,759 自2024年底以来 78 00:03:30,759 --> 00:03:34,599 与OpenAI相关的股票累计上涨约75% 79 00:03:34,599 --> 00:03:38,780 而与谷歌相关的一组股票涨幅超过300% 80 00:03:38,780 --> 00:03:42,479 而且与ONTOP克相关的一揽子股票相比 81 00:03:42,479 --> 00:03:45,169 OpenAI这一组呢也同样跑输 82 00:03:45,169 --> 00:03:46,090 大家都知道 83 00:03:46,090 --> 00:03:51,069 彭爱如今再也没有当初点石成金的那个效果了 84 00:03:51,069 --> 00:03:54,990 之前他随随便便的宣布和某家公司合作 85 00:03:54,990 --> 00:03:56,169 和AMD合作 86 00:03:56,169 --> 00:03:57,539 和甲骨文合作哈 87 00:03:57,539 --> 00:04:00,560 后者的股价立即就能够原地起飞 88 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:01,659 一蹦三尺高 89 00:04:01,659 --> 00:04:05,030 而如今呢OPPI再宣布和谁谁谁合作的话 90 00:04:07,710 --> 00:04:09,509 而且经常盘前拉高 91 00:04:09,509 --> 00:04:11,050 开盘就直接掉下来 92 00:04:11,050 --> 00:04:14,110 药效已经远远的不如以前了 93 00:04:14,110 --> 00:04:17,529 所以华尔街日报在科技巨头们明天财报前 94 00:04:17,529 --> 00:04:20,300 故意放出这个消息来炒冷饭 95 00:04:20,300 --> 00:04:23,800 在我看来就是找个理由回调一下而已 96 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,180 最近市场formal情绪太疯狂了哈 97 00:04:26,180 --> 00:04:27,459 那值100讲那么多 98 00:04:27,459 --> 00:04:29,600 找个借口获利了结一部分呢 99 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,740 呃顺便让市场情绪降温一下 100 00:04:32,740 --> 00:04:33,019 来 101 00:04:33,019 --> 00:04:35,500 更好的迎接科技巨头们的财报 102 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,860 大家还记不记得很多的金融媒体 103 00:04:40,860 --> 00:04:43,560 当时都说唉市场流动性很紧张 104 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,279 因为挂单深度买卖价差在缩紧啊 105 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,798 所以这个指数横盘几个月涨不动 106 00:04:49,798 --> 00:04:51,959 但是现在这一波改控行情 107 00:04:51,959 --> 00:04:53,338 大家都发现屁啦 108 00:04:53,338 --> 00:04:55,119 其实钱多的是好吧 109 00:04:55,119 --> 00:04:56,310 洪水泛滥 110 00:04:56,310 --> 00:04:58,209 市场永远不缺钱 111 00:04:58,209 --> 00:05:02,060 只看机构和系统性资金要不要拉而已 112 00:05:02,060 --> 00:05:04,279 至于所谓的基本面 113 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:05,139 技术面 114 00:05:05,139 --> 00:05:07,879 那都是涨跌之后哈 115 00:05:07,879 --> 00:05:11,209 自有华尔街分析师为市场变金 116 00:05:11,209 --> 00:05:12,009 跌的时候 117 00:05:12,009 --> 00:05:13,970 华尔街就翻出通胀预期 118 00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:15,110 地缘政治 119 00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:18,889 美联储缩表论证崩盘有理 120 00:05:18,889 --> 00:05:19,990 展的时候呢 121 00:05:19,990 --> 00:05:24,230 还是这一批机构他们会开始讨论生产力爆表 122 00:05:24,230 --> 00:05:26,860 AI叙事欢呼大牛市 123 00:05:26,860 --> 00:05:29,699 美股现在的本质和过去不同了哈 124 00:05:29,699 --> 00:05:34,819 是一个嗯高度金融工程化的市场呃 125 00:05:34,819 --> 00:05:38,420 尤其是现在AI呃加进去了之后哈 126 00:05:38,420 --> 00:05:41,908 更加是额走势跟过去完全不同 127 00:05:41,908 --> 00:05:44,899 基本面实际上还是长期的锚点 128 00:05:44,899 --> 00:05:46,519 但无论是在日线 129 00:05:46,519 --> 00:05:49,220 周线还是月线级别的波动中 130 00:05:49,220 --> 00:05:51,600 它都只是背景板而已了 131 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:56,519 技术面呢现在就主要是给算法提供触发信号哈 132 00:05:56,519 --> 00:05:57,800 包括那些消息面 133 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,600 也主要是喂给那些量化机器人 134 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,980 资金面与市场头寸 135 00:06:02,980 --> 00:06:06,240 才是真正的一个中长期的引擎 136 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,370 比如3月份啊 137 00:06:08,370 --> 00:06:10,269 美股为什么没有跌到位哈 138 00:06:10,269 --> 00:06:11,939 跌到这一个嗯 139 00:06:11,939 --> 00:06:13,920 2025年历史前高 140 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,839 触及这个回踩测试支撑呢 141 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,548 因为机构们之前买太多的对冲保险了嘛 142 00:06:20,548 --> 00:06:23,949 呃还有因为CCTA之前在下跌过程中卖太快 143 00:06:23,949 --> 00:06:24,728 卖的太多了 144 00:06:24,728 --> 00:06:26,899 仓位已经极端空头了 145 00:06:26,899 --> 00:06:28,259 所以就跌不下去了 146 00:06:28,259 --> 00:06:29,819 后面为什么一直涨 147 00:06:29,819 --> 00:06:30,759 一直嘎空呢 148 00:06:30,759 --> 00:06:33,819 也同样是因为CCTA的仓位从空翻多了 149 00:06:33,819 --> 00:06:35,930 要快速的买购股票 150 00:06:35,930 --> 00:06:38,009 因为空头头寸太多了 151 00:06:38,009 --> 00:06:40,389 大资金这时候选择噶空 152 00:06:40,389 --> 00:06:43,319 比继续往下砸盘收益更大 153 00:06:43,319 --> 00:06:46,839 还有因为对冲基金的仓位已经降的太低了 154 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:48,560 所以他们也要赶紧着买 155 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:49,939 够补足股票 156 00:06:49,939 --> 00:06:54,379 但是无论是这个下跌还是呃后面上涨 157 00:06:54,379 --> 00:06:55,720 基本面有改变吗 158 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,750 没有霍尔木兹海峡那个时候一直关着 159 00:06:58,750 --> 00:07:00,230 现在还是一样关着 160 00:07:00,230 --> 00:07:01,670 所以在这个系统里哈 161 00:07:01,670 --> 00:07:06,040 你试图去用以前的正常的那种逻辑 162 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,120 去说服这个行情 163 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,620 去解释行情是徒劳的 164 00:07:10,620 --> 00:07:13,420 观察系统性资金的阈值在哪里 165 00:07:13,420 --> 00:07:16,600 比去听分析师辩经要有用的多 166 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,810 就是听那些基本面基本听不出个所以然来 167 00:07:19,810 --> 00:07:22,230 就是在当前的美股生态中 168 00:07:22,230 --> 00:07:24,629 所谓的基本面和技术面 169 00:07:24,629 --> 00:07:29,300 已经让位于微观结构和这个系统性的流向了 170 00:07:29,300 --> 00:07:31,279 所以那巴菲特指标什么的 171 00:07:31,279 --> 00:07:32,800 哎呀没必要看真的 172 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,240 现在ct的仓位已经拉满了哈 173 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:36,980 买盘资金消耗殆尽了 174 00:07:36,980 --> 00:07:39,920 空头呢也基本都灰飞烟灭 175 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,360 主要上涨主要是靠惯性推动 176 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,759 虽然这个位置继续买入的人少了 177 00:07:45,759 --> 00:07:48,149 但只要卖的人也少 178 00:07:48,149 --> 00:07:50,910 那股指还是能够继续维持在高位的 179 00:07:50,910 --> 00:07:53,670 对于这一轮涨势的顶部在哪里呢 180 00:07:53,670 --> 00:07:56,209 美银技术策略师表示 181 00:07:56,209 --> 00:07:58,720 标普500指数已经突破了呃 182 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:03,300 这个头肩底形态的目标位包括7000点整数关口 183 00:08:03,300 --> 00:08:06,538 以及延伸目标位7084点 184 00:08:06,538 --> 00:08:08,978 这一轮脉冲式上涨哈 185 00:08:08,978 --> 00:08:11,879 目前呢正处于必要的盘整阶段 186 00:08:11,879 --> 00:08:14,240 这一周养老金月底再平衡呢 187 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,490 要带来230亿美元的抛压呃 188 00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:19,750 大盘就顺势回调一下 189 00:08:19,750 --> 00:08:22,978 而且科技巨头们财报还没有发布 190 00:08:22,978 --> 00:08:26,019 所以这个时候呢他们正处于回购嗯 191 00:08:26,019 --> 00:08:27,209 静末期哈 192 00:08:27,209 --> 00:08:29,269 要等他们财报发布了之后 193 00:08:29,269 --> 00:08:30,839 钱才会开始进来 194 00:08:30,839 --> 00:08:33,139 所以在这个真空期嗯 195 00:08:33,139 --> 00:08:35,559 指数就盘整一下是很正常的 196 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,450 但是美银认为这个回调呢会很浅 197 00:08:38,450 --> 00:08:41,690 预计指数将会很快就向上突破 198 00:08:41,690 --> 00:08:45,419 并且在5月或者6月份创出新高 199 00:08:45,419 --> 00:08:48,059 可能会在7308到 200 00:08:48,059 --> 00:08:51,120 7377点区域见顶啊 201 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:52,849 其实也很接近了哈 202 00:08:52,849 --> 00:08:53,629 然后呢 203 00:08:53,629 --> 00:08:55,908 随着夏季流动性的下降 204 00:08:55,908 --> 00:08:58,109 还有中期选举的临近 205 00:08:58,109 --> 00:09:01,639 下行的修正恶浪风险将会日益增加 206 00:09:01,639 --> 00:09:04,928 美音成这一个修正烂断呢 207 00:09:04,928 --> 00:09:07,469 应该被视为买入的机会 208 00:09:07,469 --> 00:09:09,788 因为在中期选举后的反弹 209 00:09:09,788 --> 00:09:12,119 以及年底圣诞行情 210 00:09:12,119 --> 00:09:16,240 往往是中期选举年的一个非常强劲的特征 211 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,620 给大家看这张图主要是为了给大家做个参考哈 212 00:09:19,620 --> 00:09:22,600 但是咱们也不要把它奉为真理 213 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,570 任何机构策略师 214 00:09:24,570 --> 00:09:25,169 高盛 215 00:09:25,169 --> 00:09:26,570 摩根大通或美英 216 00:09:26,570 --> 00:09:28,840 他们都有可能看错行情 217 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,580 按照他画的这个线 218 00:09:30,580 --> 00:09:33,700 标普500在突破7300点之前 219 00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:37,809 当下这个盘整最深呢不会跌破7000点 220 00:09:37,809 --> 00:09:42,649 最低大概也就是触及七千十七千六十附近 221 00:09:42,649 --> 00:09:45,090 所以要是跟随他的策略 222 00:09:45,090 --> 00:09:49,720 那短线多头可以将7000点设置为止损位 223 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:50,799 只要不跌破 224 00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:53,039 就可以继续持股待涨 225 00:09:53,039 --> 00:09:55,740 等指数站上了7300点之后 226 00:09:55,740 --> 00:09:57,659 再开始分批止盈 227 00:09:57,659 --> 00:10:01,940 要是指数这个盘整回调就跌破了7000点 228 00:10:01,940 --> 00:10:04,559 那就说明每一民策略是做的这个推演啊 229 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:05,259 错了哈 230 00:10:05,259 --> 00:10:07,599 市场没有按他的这个剧本走 231 00:10:07,599 --> 00:10:09,038 那就得先离场了 232 00:10:09,038 --> 00:10:11,078 不能够头铁去硬扛 233 00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:13,839 先出来再看到底什么情况 234 00:10:13,839 --> 00:10:16,139 所以接下来呢我们就验证一下 235 00:10:16,139 --> 00:10:20,169 观察后面的走势是否遵循这个剧本 236 00:10:20,169 --> 00:10:20,970 个股方面 237 00:10:20,970 --> 00:10:23,049 在OpenAI今天小作文出来后 238 00:10:23,049 --> 00:10:24,940 相关概念股集体承压 239 00:10:24,940 --> 00:10:26,639 COVIA迅速回应 240 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:26,919 称 241 00:10:26,919 --> 00:10:29,080 他的业务不依赖单一客户 242 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,700 客户的取证现在已经涵盖了auto pick OpenAI 243 00:10:32,700 --> 00:10:36,779 谷歌和MEA是全球最大的四家AI模型厂商 244 00:10:36,779 --> 00:10:39,879 爷爷送礼需求仍然超过供给 245 00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:42,059 即便欧朋要面临增长压力 246 00:10:42,059 --> 00:10:44,330 口语的基本面也不会因此动摇 247 00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:46,009 嗯就是说没有open e 248 00:10:46,009 --> 00:10:47,210 他也有其他客户 249 00:10:47,210 --> 00:10:49,840 而且背后还有那个英伟达是吧 250 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,679 但市场担忧情绪并没有完全的消散哈 251 00:10:54,710 --> 00:10:56,870 甲骨文这边股价跌了4% 252 00:10:56,870 --> 00:11:01,009 他手里3000亿美元的订单是和OpenAI挂钩的 253 00:11:01,009 --> 00:11:05,929 若是open e无法按计划为它庞大的基础设施承诺 254 00:11:05,929 --> 00:11:07,349 持续买单的话 255 00:11:07,349 --> 00:11:10,948 那甲骨文面临的第一顺位风险就会迅速放大 256 00:11:10,948 --> 00:11:13,749 而且他的这个债务也是非常的沉重 257 00:11:13,749 --> 00:11:15,120 现金流为负 258 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,600 它的股价已经跌破了170亿美元 259 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,129 这条仅线趋势已经转弱了 260 00:11:20,129 --> 00:11:21,769 今天能够低开高走 261 00:11:21,769 --> 00:11:25,539 主要有下方月均线和缺口双重支撑 262 00:11:25,539 --> 00:11:29,299 等什么时候股价重新站上颈线和半年线哈 263 00:11:29,299 --> 00:11:31,159 才算是重新走强 264 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,639 罗宾沪的盘后呢出财报了 265 00:11:33,639 --> 00:11:35,440 Q1营收10.7亿美元 266 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:36,919 同比增长15% 267 00:11:36,919 --> 00:11:39,929 但是低于华尔街预期的11.8亿美元 268 00:11:39,929 --> 00:11:41,889 其他交易收入都增产了 269 00:11:41,889 --> 00:11:45,330 但是被加密货币交易收入下降47% 270 00:11:45,330 --> 00:11:49,039 所抵消净利息收入同比增长了24% 271 00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:51,759 其他收入同比增长了57% 272 00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:54,340 摊薄后每股收益38美分 273 00:11:54,340 --> 00:11:56,299 同比只增长了3% 274 00:11:56,299 --> 00:11:59,559 而且低于预期的46美分 275 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,879 罗宾who的good的这个订阅用户 276 00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:05,220 同比增长了120万 277 00:12:05,220 --> 00:12:06,940 就增长36% 278 00:12:06,940 --> 00:12:08,839 达到了430万人 279 00:12:08,839 --> 00:12:12,039 每用户平均收入呢同比增长8% 280 00:12:12,039 --> 00:12:13,620 到157美元 281 00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:14,799 公司CEO表示 282 00:12:14,799 --> 00:12:18,879 第二季度在4月开具良好股票和期权交易量 283 00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:21,610 有望成为全年最高的月份 284 00:12:21,610 --> 00:12:24,549 因为4月整个市场都疯狂嘛 285 00:12:24,549 --> 00:12:27,539 嗯现在股价盘后下跌哈 286 00:12:27,539 --> 00:12:27,940 完蛋了 287 00:12:27,940 --> 00:12:29,179 我手里有50股 288 00:12:29,179 --> 00:12:31,220 这票现在就被套住了 289 00:12:31,220 --> 00:12:34,720 这股票与比特币和美联储货币政策 290 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:35,980 深度绑定的哈 291 00:12:35,980 --> 00:12:37,840 比特币那边硬不起来 292 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,580 它这里也好不了 293 00:12:39,580 --> 00:12:44,350 我现在就都把它当那个虚拟货币来看待了 294 00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:46,110 现在呢我犹豫着哈 295 00:12:46,110 --> 00:12:49,440 要不要等股价跌到65美元的时候 296 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:50,720 再加仓50股 297 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,360 凑足100股来卖 298 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,389 背对扣奶收租金 299 00:12:54,389 --> 00:12:56,750 光通信概念股康宁 300 00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:58,250 它跌了8.9% 301 00:12:58,250 --> 00:13:01,230 第一季度业绩整体达标和新销售额 302 00:13:01,230 --> 00:13:02,730 同比增长18% 303 00:13:02,730 --> 00:13:04,000 略超预期 304 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,620 核心每股收益70每分 305 00:13:06,620 --> 00:13:08,419 同比增长30%哈 306 00:13:08,419 --> 00:13:10,480 同样也是略超预期 307 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,919 说明预期打的很高了 308 00:13:12,919 --> 00:13:16,080 光学通信部门销售额大增36% 309 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,620 官服部门同比增长80% 310 00:13:18,620 --> 00:13:23,460 二季度核心EPS指引呢为73~77美分 311 00:13:23,460 --> 00:13:25,720 同比增幅约25% 312 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,720 这显示公司的盈利能力提升的趋势人在延续 313 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,100 但是呢区间中指75美分 314 00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:35,460 要略低于彭博一致预期的76美分 315 00:13:35,460 --> 00:13:36,899 公司预计二季度 316 00:13:36,899 --> 00:13:39,419 核心销售额大约为46亿美元 317 00:13:39,419 --> 00:13:41,389 同比增幅约14% 318 00:13:41,389 --> 00:13:45,230 环比呈现小幅放缓的这个态势哈 319 00:13:45,230 --> 00:13:48,470 主要受太阳能近远工厂延长检修 320 00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:50,340 带来的额外成本劳动 321 00:13:50,340 --> 00:13:52,860 剔除掉一次性维护费用影响后呢 322 00:13:52,860 --> 00:13:55,539 业务的内生增长逻辑并没有改变 323 00:13:55,539 --> 00:13:58,000 AI数据中心扩张还在加速 324 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,019 光伏供货还在放量 325 00:14:00,019 --> 00:14:03,159 这两大核心驱动力依然坚实 326 00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:04,940 但是呃问题在于 327 00:14:04,940 --> 00:14:06,940 它的股价前面涨太多了 328 00:14:06,940 --> 00:14:08,799 预期打太满太高 329 00:14:08,799 --> 00:14:11,240 这一份让投资者失望的指引呢 330 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,679 就成为了股价今天回调的导火索 331 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:14,919 管理层坦诚 332 00:14:14,919 --> 00:14:19,039 二季度将会迎来光伏硅片工厂的重大维护 333 00:14:19,039 --> 00:14:21,029 停产以及升级改造 334 00:14:21,029 --> 00:14:24,409 预计将会产生大约3000万美元的一次性费用 335 00:14:24,409 --> 00:14:26,568 但是呢管理层同时强调 336 00:14:26,568 --> 00:14:30,970 这个停产是为了后面打通更高的产能上限哈 337 00:14:30,970 --> 00:14:34,289 为这个后续盈利能力跃升奠定基础 338 00:14:34,289 --> 00:14:35,500 所以应该是好事 339 00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:37,059 股价高位之后呢 340 00:14:37,059 --> 00:14:38,259 现在出现了分歧 341 00:14:38,259 --> 00:14:40,220 存在短期波动风险 342 00:14:40,220 --> 00:14:41,179 过去几个月 343 00:14:41,179 --> 00:14:43,879 公司内部高管全都在卖嗯 344 00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:46,659 总计减持了约37万股 345 00:14:46,659 --> 00:14:49,440 累计套现超过3300万美元 346 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,320 对于这个公司体量来说 347 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,639 这点减持的金额属于毛毛雨啦 348 00:14:53,639 --> 00:14:54,700 完全正常哈 349 00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:57,389 并不真正构成负面的信号 350 00:14:57,389 --> 00:14:59,649 但是在股价连续大涨之后 351 00:14:59,649 --> 00:15:01,950 处于历史高位的背景之下 352 00:15:01,950 --> 00:15:06,379 这么一致的减持行为仍值得我们这个保持关注 353 00:15:06,379 --> 00:15:09,799 在妖股POET昨天崩盘之后 354 00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:14,399 康宁的这份财报其实也再次打击了光通信板块 355 00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:18,000 这些被资金最近热捧的光通信代表 356 00:15:19,460 --> 00:15:23,419 虽然AI算力狂热的确推动了怼光通信的刚需 357 00:15:23,419 --> 00:15:27,179 但是炒作提前透支了未来一两年的业绩 358 00:15:27,179 --> 00:15:28,659 估值泡沫化 359 00:15:28,659 --> 00:15:30,679 最近股票一个接一个的暴雷 360 00:15:30,679 --> 00:15:32,840 资金获利了结的意愿增强 361 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,080 市场后面可能开启高低切换哈 362 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,240 OpenAI今天的小作文这个时候放出来 363 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,839 可能就是配合主力资金的调仓 364 00:15:41,839 --> 00:15:44,278 arm继昨天收跌8%之后 365 00:15:44,278 --> 00:15:45,499 今天又跌了8% 366 00:15:45,499 --> 00:15:48,840 由于天丰国际证券分期是郭明启 367 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:49,639 昨天称 368 00:15:49,639 --> 00:15:54,078 高通正在与OpenAI合作开发专用智能手机芯片 369 00:15:54,078 --> 00:15:54,979 投资者担心 370 00:15:54,979 --> 00:15:58,558 这款新的芯片可能不再采用arm的架构 371 00:15:58,558 --> 00:16:01,279 或者呢arm在其中的参与度极低 372 00:16:01,279 --> 00:16:04,659 由于高通一直都是arm的核心客户哈 373 00:16:04,659 --> 00:16:07,240 任何可能绕过arm的重大合作 374 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,679 都会引发投资者对这个arm未来授权费收入的 375 00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:13,360 深度的这个恐慌 376 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:18,200 再加上前期这股票炒作CPU题材涨幅已经过大 377 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,139 资金也开始寻求落袋为安 378 00:16:20,139 --> 00:16:23,519 这或许是arm接连大跌的直接原因 379 00:16:24,860 --> 00:16:26,200 今天呢公布财报后 380 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,139 股价飙升了十四零% 381 00:16:28,139 --> 00:16:32,379 涨标普500指数成份股公司Q1业绩超预期 382 00:16:32,379 --> 00:16:34,659 并且上调了全年盈利指引 383 00:16:34,659 --> 00:16:36,649 目前预计2026财年 384 00:16:36,649 --> 00:16:39,610 每股收益将会超过3.4美元 385 00:16:39,610 --> 00:16:42,090 而此前预估为3.02美元 386 00:16:42,090 --> 00:16:44,820 股价日K今天收出一根长阳线 387 00:16:44,820 --> 00:16:46,379 自4月初以来 388 00:16:46,379 --> 00:16:48,679 股价就反弹了54%哈 389 00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:50,490 持续修复估值 390 00:16:50,490 --> 00:16:55,070 哎没想到医疗保险板块今天就表现这么的硬 391 00:16:55,070 --> 00:17:00,230 我的100股联合健康原本是卖背对扣 392 00:17:00,230 --> 00:17:01,850 美滋滋收租金用的哈 393 00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:03,929 结果这一下就要被扣走了 394 00:17:03,929 --> 00:17:05,159 心好痛啊 395 00:17:05,159 --> 00:17:08,578 所以卖背对扣其实有时候也挺烦的哈 396 00:17:08,578 --> 00:17:10,699 因为股价大跌的时候呢 397 00:17:10,699 --> 00:17:13,449 那点期权经弥补不了损失 398 00:17:13,449 --> 00:17:15,209 股价大涨的时候呢 399 00:17:15,209 --> 00:17:16,249 又容易卖飞 400 00:17:16,249 --> 00:17:21,848 我现在是在犹豫要不要往后倒更晚的行权日期 401 00:17:21,848 --> 00:17:23,249 还是干脆就算了 402 00:17:23,249 --> 00:17:25,269 吃掉这一笔期权金 403 00:17:25,269 --> 00:17:29,619 然后就等被行权之后再重新卖出一张put来 404 00:17:29,619 --> 00:17:33,690 等着这个低价接回或者继续吃期权金 405 00:17:33,690 --> 00:17:35,569 我觉得今天涨成这样子 406 00:17:35,569 --> 00:17:38,589 还有很大的部分原因就是资金避险 407 00:17:38,589 --> 00:17:41,539 所以流入这些防御股里面 408 00:17:41,539 --> 00:17:43,700 等科技巨头发布财报了 409 00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:45,279 如果危险解除的话 410 00:17:45,279 --> 00:17:47,359 资金可能又会跑去抄底嗯 411 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,180 科技股哈 412 00:17:48,180 --> 00:17:50,619 这些医疗保险股可能就又下来了 413 00:17:50,619 --> 00:17:52,640 航空股今天集体走低 414 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:54,319 美银最新数据显示 415 00:17:54,319 --> 00:17:56,299 自伊朗战争开打以来 416 00:17:56,299 --> 00:17:59,440 机票价格与行李费用大幅上涨 417 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,200 旅客出行意愿开始消退 418 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,440 航空客流量显著放缓 419 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,019 近期出行量已经低于2024年 420 00:18:07,019 --> 00:18:09,659 于2025年同期水平了 421 00:18:09,659 --> 00:18:13,538 如果将航空出行视作前瞻性经济指标的话 422 00:18:13,538 --> 00:18:16,609 那么随着油价持续的维持在高位 423 00:18:16,609 --> 00:18:20,680 对经济的滞后影响哈开始逐渐显现出来了 424 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:21,599 美银表示 425 00:18:21,599 --> 00:18:23,900 在3月强势增长过后 426 00:18:23,900 --> 00:18:27,599 4月非必需服务消费将会整体减弱 427 00:18:27,599 --> 00:18:30,920 是5月份的CPI通胀数据哈 428 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:32,859 我觉得还是值得担心的 429 00:18:32,859 --> 00:18:36,779 音频流媒体平台SPOTIFY第一季度业绩超预期 430 00:18:36,779 --> 00:18:38,619 营收同比增长了14% 431 00:18:38,619 --> 00:18:41,638 调整后每股收益为3.45欧元 432 00:18:41,638 --> 00:18:43,959 超过预期的2.95欧元 433 00:18:43,959 --> 00:18:46,439 月活跃用户呢同比增长12% 434 00:18:46,439 --> 00:18:48,558 本季度净增了300万 435 00:18:48,558 --> 00:18:49,519 订阅用户 436 00:18:49,519 --> 00:18:52,210 毛利率达到创纪录的33% 437 00:18:52,210 --> 00:18:56,029 自有现金流达到创纪录的8.24亿欧元 438 00:18:56,029 --> 00:18:59,680 但是二季度营收指引要低于市场预测 439 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,579 这反应有点过度哈 440 00:19:03,579 --> 00:19:05,200 自2025年6月以来 441 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,940 股价累计回撤了约45% 442 00:19:07,940 --> 00:19:08,720 这个股票 443 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,660 其实也是受到了整个软件板块的情绪拖累 444 00:19:12,660 --> 00:19:14,579 也就被杀估值了 445 00:19:14,579 --> 00:19:17,140 通用汽车第一季度业绩超预期 446 00:19:17,140 --> 00:19:19,140 股价日内多拉锯之后呢 447 00:19:19,140 --> 00:19:20,599 最终多头胜出 448 00:19:20,599 --> 00:19:23,319 虽然营收同比下降了0.9% 449 00:19:23,319 --> 00:19:24,940 净利润26亿美元 450 00:19:24,940 --> 00:19:26,990 同比下降5.7% 451 00:19:26,990 --> 00:19:30,069 但是调整后每股收益3.7美元 452 00:19:30,069 --> 00:19:32,789 要远好于预期的2.61美元 453 00:19:32,789 --> 00:19:35,670 公司将2026年全年调整后 454 00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:36,930 每股收益指引 455 00:19:36,930 --> 00:19:41,000 上调到11.5到13.5美元之间 456 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,099 这要高于市场预期的12.24美元 457 00:19:44,099 --> 00:19:45,180 上调的原因呢是 458 00:19:45,180 --> 00:19:47,069 美国最高法院嗯 459 00:19:47,069 --> 00:19:51,750 就国际紧急经济权力法下缴纳的某些关税 460 00:19:51,750 --> 00:19:52,750 作出裁决之后 461 00:19:52,750 --> 00:19:55,549 带来约5亿美元的有力调整 462 00:19:55,549 --> 00:19:58,690 就是有一笔关税行就退回公司 463 00:19:58,690 --> 00:19:59,789 公司目前预计 464 00:19:59,789 --> 00:20:01,799 2026年的关税总成本呢 465 00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:04,200 为25亿到35亿美元之间 466 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,750 只要低于最初估计的30亿到40亿美元 467 00:20:07,750 --> 00:20:11,569 UP第一季度营收与利润都超出华尔街预期 468 00:20:11,569 --> 00:20:15,950 但是公司仍然维持全年财务指引不变 469 00:20:15,950 --> 00:20:19,359 就对前景还是比较持谨慎态度 470 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,200 这个让投资者感到失望 471 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,240 因为它的主要竞争对手联邦快递 472 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,420 三个月才刚刚上调了全年利润预期 473 00:20:27,420 --> 00:20:29,819 由于美国贸易政策摇摆不定 474 00:20:29,819 --> 00:20:32,720 以及染料成本上涨带来的影响 475 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,659 UPS美国国内业务的利润率和息 476 00:20:36,659 --> 00:20:39,210 税前利润呢都不及预期 477 00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:43,529 在经历了数年股价低迷与盈利乏力的困境之后 478 00:20:43,529 --> 00:20:47,680 公司表示今年第一季度是关键的转型期呃 479 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,609 已经顺利执行了多项重大策略调整 480 00:20:51,609 --> 00:20:54,529 预计将在今年年中达到拐点 481 00:20:54,529 --> 00:20:58,009 届时亚马逊包裹削减计划将会完成 482 00:20:58,009 --> 00:21:01,890 公司将重新恢复整体营收与营业利润增长 483 00:21:01,890 --> 00:21:03,829 并且推动利润率的扩张 484 00:21:03,829 --> 00:21:04,869 过去3年哈 485 00:21:04,869 --> 00:21:06,549 又BS股价一直落后于大盘 486 00:21:06,549 --> 00:21:08,289 今天跳空低开之后呢 487 00:21:08,289 --> 00:21:11,529 空头回补以及一些抄底买盘的进入 488 00:21:11,529 --> 00:21:13,210 股价日内收窄了跌幅 489 00:21:13,210 --> 00:21:15,349 收出一根十字星行 490 00:21:15,349 --> 00:21:17,029 今天我们就简单说到这里 491 00:21:17,029 --> 00:21:20,630 那就等明天盘后的重磅这个剧透财报好 492 00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:22,309 我们明天见拜拜
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