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美股AI量化分析工具
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大家好
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我们是美股投资网
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用大数据驱动你的交易决策
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本周决定美股是否阶段性见顶的关键时刻来了
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亚马逊meta谷歌
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微软
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苹果
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五家科技巨头扎堆发财报
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这期视频我不会重复那些你已经听腻的东西
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什么营收预计增长多少
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什么EPS有没有beat
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什么华尔街已知预期是多少
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因为真正的大资金看的从来不只是这些表面数字
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我会带你用机构视角看三件事
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每家公司最值得盯的核心指标是什么
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市场现在最容易忽略的细节是什么
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当前股价到底price in了多少预期
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更重要的是
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财报出来之后
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什么情况会让资金继续冲进去
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什么情况又会让市场开始重新定价
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所以这期视频我们只看财报背后真正能改变股价的关键变量
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这期内容含金量很高
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建议你先点赞收藏
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话不多说
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我们直接上干货
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首先是亚马逊财报
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先说结论
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我们美股投资网看涨
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这次亚马逊财报核心预测是
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仅ANTHROPIC1掐
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就能为亚马逊AWSS1季度贡献超13亿美元的环比收入增量
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基本上就代表aw s1季度业绩大概率暴击华尔街预期
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唯一隐患使这部分大客户带来的增量收入
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利润率可能偏低
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对利润端的拉动会相对温和
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这次财报
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因为现在市场真正关心的已经不是aw s有没有增长
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而是一个更底层的问题
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AWS到底能不能完成一次身份切换
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从卖云资源变成AI时代的基础设施入口
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这个变化为什么重要呢
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因为他已经开始决定估值
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向机构BUSTIN在财报前把目标价从265美元提到300美元
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本质就是在重写一件事
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亚马逊不再只是电商公司
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而是电商家平台的组合
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电商按稳健零售给底部
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而AWS被当成高增长平台资产
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甚至给到2027年约25倍利润倍数
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这等于告诉市场
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亚马逊未来值多少钱
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核心不在电商
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而在AWS这次能不能升级成功
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那这个升级到底靠什么来证明
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关键就在一组看起来矛盾的数字
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一边是大家最担心的
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接近2000亿美元的资本开支
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以及aw s接近75%的资本密集度
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也就是每赚100块要再投75块回去
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这种投入强度短期一定会压自由现金流
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这是现在市场分歧最大的地方
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但另一边是一个被很多人忽略的数字
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AWS大约2440亿美元的订单积压
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而且还在增长
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这意味着什么
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意味着这些投入并不是在拍脑袋
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而是已经有客户签了合同
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在排队等算力
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把这两个数字放在一起看逻辑就清楚了
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亚马逊不是在赌需求
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而是在用资本开支去兑现已经锁定的需求
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也正因为如此
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AWS在2025年第四季度还能做到356亿美元
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收入24%的增长
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并且在2026年第一季度
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市场预期进一步上升到25%到28%
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这不是单纯恢复增长
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而是AI工作负载开始真正进入生产阶段
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但真正的变化还不在总收入
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而在结构管理层呢已经明确说了
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AWS的AI相关收入年化规模超过150亿美元
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占整体年收入的10%以上
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这个比例一旦继续往上走
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意味着同一份算力正在被卖出更高的价值
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这才是AWS从卖资源走向卖平台的关键一步
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问题是这种增长到底赚不赚钱
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现在AWS还能维持大约35%的营业利润率
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这个水平呢很关键
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因为它决定了市场愿不愿意继续给时间
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但压力呢也存在
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一方面是数据中心和服务器带来的折旧在上升
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另一方面是在自研芯片还没完全铺开之前
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对英伟达GPU的依赖导致成本过高
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所以这次财报真正要听的不是收入
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而是两个更底层的变化
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AI单位成本有没有开始下降
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利润率有没有被明显拖住
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如果这两个没有明显改善
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那AI增长再快
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市场也不会买账
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这也是为什么自研芯片会变成整件事的核心
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现在亚马逊的自研芯片加起来已经做到超过200亿美元的年化收入
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而且还在快速增长
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它的意义不只是技术
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而是决定AWS能不能摆脱赚多少花多少的循环
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如果继续依赖外部GPU
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AI需求越大
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成本也越大
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但自研芯片一旦跑起来
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AWS就可以把一部分成本锁在自己体系里
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关键的是
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这条路线已经被验证了
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ANTHROPIC承诺
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未来10年在AWS投入超过1000亿美元
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同时锁定最高五几瓦算力
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OpenAI的合作规模大约是500亿美元
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对应两极瓦需求
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两家加起来就是七级瓦
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这不是潜在客户
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而是已经在消耗算力的真实负载
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这意味着亚马逊这轮接近2000亿美元的投入
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很大一部分已经有了长期回报的现金流
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到这里你会发现整个逻辑开始闭环了
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2440亿美元的订单
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解释了为什么要投这么多
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150亿美元的AI收入
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说明需求已经在释放
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200亿美元的自研芯片
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决定未来成本能不能降下来
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而35%的利润率是这套系统还能运转的底线
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再来说谷歌
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目前的华尔街其实已经不再担心谷歌是否会掉队
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大家唯一的关心是如此庞大的AI投入
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到底能不能转化为实打实的现金流回报
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要拆解这个万亿规模的生意
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我们需要盯紧一个核心逻辑
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谷歌正在利用自研芯片TPU和独特的光互联技术
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构建一个难以被复制的AI回报循环
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首先呢我们需要理解谷歌砸下这1800亿的底层动力
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这并非盲目的规模竞赛
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而是谷歌在通过自研的第七代芯片TPUV7
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进行一场成本侧的非对称竞争
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相比依赖第三方GPU的同行
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谷歌通过与博通合作
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直接以接近制造成本的价格获取芯片
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避开了高额的供应链溢价
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据估算
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其算力成本比通用方案低了30%到50%
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更具竞争力的护城河在于谷歌自研的光交换机
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这项技术能让数万颗TPU高效协同
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如同一个超大规模的单体处理器
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其直接结果是GEMINI的推理成本在一年内大幅下降了78%
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即便现在一半的搜索请求都整合了AI概览功能
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谷歌的利润率也并未被拖累
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这就是技术溢价带来的优势
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在行业还在为算力意向和能源成本发愁时
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谷歌已经初步实现了AI算力的低边际成本运行
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在成本优化之后
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下一个就是看需求的支撑
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这时候一个关键的财务指标浮出水面
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2400亿美元的订单积压
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这一数字呢在一年内实现翻倍
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意味着大量客户已经签署了长期协议
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正在等待谷歌的算力交付
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这里面包含了两类极具代表性的顶级客户
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一类是苹果通过在IPHONE中整合GEMINI
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谷歌实际上成为了全球数亿移动端用户的后端基础设施供应商
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另一类是像ANTHROPIC这样的头部模型公司
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其大规模的训练和推理负载几乎完全绑定在谷歌的TPU集群上
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因此这1800亿的开支实际上是对已签约订单的精准配套
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这可以被理解为一种确定的兑付需求
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已经锁定谷歌的任务是在加速数据中心和芯片的部署
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将这些合同转化为实际营收
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此外呢
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谷歌还有两个经常被市场忽略的财务杠杆
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第一个是税务与折旧策略
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根据现行的OBBA法案
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谷歌的资本开支可以享受大比例的奖金折扣
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这意味着大规模的基建投资可以在短期内抵扣税收
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从而优化了现金流回报周期
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即便投资额翻倍
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谷歌账上的经营现金流依然极为充裕
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第二个呢是能效优势
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在能源供应紧张的背景下
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谷歌数据中心的能效比维持在1.09
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远低于行业平均水平
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这意味着在同等算力的产出下
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谷歌的电力运营成本更低
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配合其在小型核反应堆等清洁能源上的提前布局
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谷歌正在将算力成本转化为一项长期的绝对竞争优势
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最后看核心搜索业务
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市场曾担心AI会削弱搜索的商业价值
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但数据显示
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用户的查询长度平均增长了三倍
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搜索行为正变得更加深度化
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虽然部分基础信息类查询的点击率有所波动
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但在高商业价值的决策类搜索上
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转化率反而得到了提升
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这就是谷歌的策略
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利用AI提升流量的精度与单价
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总结来说
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这次财报我们不应只看谷歌花了多少钱
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更应关注其锁定的多少确定性回报
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只要管理层能证明
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00:09:28,460 --> 00:09:32,519
TPUV7已经大规模承载了搜索与云端的负载
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00:09:32,519 --> 00:09:36,500
苹果以ATHROPIC等核心客户的调用量持续加速
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00:09:36,500 --> 00:09:39,919
且2400亿订单积压维持高增长
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00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:42,350
那么谷歌的估值逻辑将迎来重构
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当这种从投入到回报的逻辑闭环被市场验证
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00:09:46,210 --> 00:09:49,620
400美元的目标价将具备更坚实的支撑
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在财报前
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00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:54,940
我们一般都会看看机构在期权百万金额订单的布局
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总体而言
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00:09:56,109 --> 00:09:57,609
谷歌财报不会差
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大跌也会很多人抄底
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如果你觉得本视频对你有帮助
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先点赞再收藏
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关键时刻能帮忙
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美国热线6263783637
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第三家看苹果
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说实话
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苹果是这几家巨头里面最稳的
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00:10:12,599 --> 00:10:15,589
但也是市场认为最难讲出增长逻辑的一家
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他的毛利率
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00:10:16,548 --> 00:10:18,568
供应链现金流全是世界级
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没人怀疑苹果能不能赚钱
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00:10:20,428 --> 00:10:21,769
大家真正担心的是
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在这么稳的基本盘上
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苹果还能不能拿出让资金愿意重新加估值的新驱动力
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过去这个疑问很重
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但现在五条关键线索正在悄然发生变化
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第一个变化
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苹果在国内的逆势增长
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00:10:37,159 --> 00:10:40,379
一季度国内手机的市场整体下滑4%
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行业普遍承压
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00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,179
但苹果在华出货量逆势大增20%
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增速位居主流品牌之首
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这个数据很关键
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因为它证明了
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在国产旗舰手机集体向上围攻
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竞争最激烈的阶段
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苹果依然能够通过灵活的定价策略和强大的生态粘性
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锁定高端市场的核心换机需求
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00:11:01,929 --> 00:11:05,850
正是这种硬核基本盘给了苹果讲新故事的底气
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第二个变化
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00:11:06,919 --> 00:11:08,730
折叠屏预期的转变
249
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长期以来
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00:11:09,669 --> 00:11:13,549
市场一直质疑苹果为何在折叠屏领域迟迟没有动作
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00:11:13,549 --> 00:11:17,019
尤其是安卓阵营早已推出折叠屏设备
252
00:11:17,019 --> 00:11:18,980
但情况正在发生变化
253
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来自供应链的多方信息显示
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苹果的折叠屏产品正在进入开发阶段
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预计在2026年下半年或2027年推出
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00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,360
苹果的折叠屏战略与安卓阵营不同
257
00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,549
安卓厂商追求的是尽早推出折叠屏
258
00:11:34,549 --> 00:11:41,220
而苹果的目标是确保折叠屏在展开后依然拥有完整的IPAD或IPHONE使用体验
259
00:11:41,220 --> 00:11:43,899
真正要解决的不是有没有折叠屏
260
00:11:43,899 --> 00:11:46,639
而是折叠屏是否值得用户换机
261
00:11:46,639 --> 00:11:47,960
对于资本市场而言
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折叠屏本身不是一个新概念
263
00:11:50,389 --> 00:11:53,870
但苹果做的折叠屏意味着全新的市场预期
264
00:11:53,870 --> 00:11:56,129
只要苹果给出明确的时间表
265
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市场就会重新评估其长期增长天花板
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第三个变化
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6月苹果全球开发者大会ww DC与apple intelligence w w DC即将到来
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苹果的AI战略成为焦点
269
00:12:10,369 --> 00:12:13,139
当前市场对苹果的AI预期极低
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甚至有机构表示
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投资者的期待接近零
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00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:19,120
但这恰恰为苹果提供了更大的空间
273
00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,659
关键不在于苹果有没有AI功能
274
00:12:21,659 --> 00:12:25,568
而在于这些功能能否成为用户换新机的驱动力
275
00:12:25,568 --> 00:12:27,469
苹果正在重做SIRI
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00:12:27,469 --> 00:12:28,989
提升自然对话能力
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00:12:28,989 --> 00:12:32,539
并探索与谷歌GEMINA和ANTHROPIC合作
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00:12:32,539 --> 00:12:36,100
如果苹果能在ww DC上明确表示
279
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只有新一代设备才能完整体验这些功能
280
00:12:39,399 --> 00:12:43,399
那就意味着一轮新的换季周期即将开启
281
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:46,799
历史上2024年WWD4之后的半年
282
00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:49,179
苹果股价上涨约30%
283
00:12:49,179 --> 00:12:55,360
这次的核心任务是让市场相信苹果intelligence将成为硬件升级的驱动力
284
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:56,299
第四个变化
285
00:12:56,299 --> 00:12:57,799
IPHONE18的定价权
286
00:12:57,799 --> 00:13:00,080
随着台积电2NM的工艺
287
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,539
dram和nine的价格全面上涨
288
00:13:02,539 --> 00:13:04,568
苹果面临明显的成本压力
289
00:13:04,568 --> 00:13:05,948
但苹果的优势在于
290
00:13:05,948 --> 00:13:07,928
它不仅能应对成本上涨
291
00:13:07,928 --> 00:13:10,870
还能通过体验升级来实现提价
292
00:13:10,870 --> 00:13:13,429
如果IPHONE18能够借助AI技术
293
00:13:13,429 --> 00:13:16,129
芯片性能和整体产品体验的提升
294
00:13:16,129 --> 00:13:17,490
维持较高价格
295
00:13:17,490 --> 00:13:19,289
而需求依然不受影响
296
00:13:19,289 --> 00:13:21,519
苹果的毛利率就能维持在高位
297
00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:22,120
反之
298
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,799
如果价格上调未能得到用户接受
299
00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:27,409
苹果的盈利模型将面临重新评估
300
00:13:27,409 --> 00:13:28,289
事实上
301
00:13:28,289 --> 00:13:31,409
AI与定价权本质上是同一件事
302
00:13:31,409 --> 00:13:33,649
只有产品体验得到切实提升
303
00:13:33,649 --> 00:13:35,830
用户才愿意支付更高的价格
304
00:13:35,830 --> 00:13:36,830
第五个变化
305
00:13:36,830 --> 00:13:38,190
管理层换代
306
00:13:38,190 --> 00:13:40,970
库克将在9月1日卸任CEO
307
00:13:40,970 --> 00:13:42,830
转任执行董事长
308
00:13:42,830 --> 00:13:46,139
由硬件负责人约翰特努斯接任
309
00:13:46,139 --> 00:13:49,159
特努斯拥有深厚的硬件工程背景
310
00:13:49,159 --> 00:13:51,600
曾长期参与iphone Mac
311
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,279
apple lion摄像头等核心技术的研发
312
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,149
更意味着市场将开始思考苹果的未来方向
313
00:14:02,149 --> 00:14:06,789
它会从一家稳定的现金流公司转变为一家硬件创新
314
00:14:06,789 --> 00:14:09,110
加AI终端平台的公司吗
315
00:14:09,110 --> 00:14:10,389
如果答案是肯定的
316
00:14:10,389 --> 00:14:14,009
苹果的估值方法将不再仅仅依赖于利润和回购
317
00:14:14,009 --> 00:14:15,830
还需要考虑产品周期
318
00:14:15,830 --> 00:14:18,210
基础节奏以及平台叙事的演变
319
00:14:18,210 --> 00:14:20,850
苹果的问题从来不是能不能赚钱
320
00:14:20,850 --> 00:14:23,730
而是他能否在已经足够稳定的基础上
321
00:14:23,730 --> 00:14:27,740
找到一个让市场愿意重新加估值的新增长故事
322
00:14:27,740 --> 00:14:29,799
而随着国内市场的逆势增长
323
00:14:29,799 --> 00:14:31,279
折叠屏预期的转变
324
00:14:31,279 --> 00:14:32,860
apple intelligence的潜力
325
00:14:32,860 --> 00:14:36,059
定价权的维持以及管理层的战略转向
326
00:14:36,059 --> 00:14:38,549
这个新故事正在一点点展开
327
00:14:38,549 --> 00:14:41,309
最新一次对评估的布局是在4月7日
328
00:14:41,309 --> 00:14:44,029
我们精准把握到了近期评估的底部
329
00:14:44,029 --> 00:14:44,970
完美抄底
330
00:14:44,970 --> 00:14:47,299
我们会耐心持有到300以上
331
00:14:47,299 --> 00:14:52,830
最后来说meta metal这次财报市场最核心的关注点是metal的广告
332
00:14:52,830 --> 00:14:57,129
现金奶牛能不能养得起AI这头吞金怪兽
333
00:14:57,129 --> 00:14:58,370
为什么这么说
334
00:14:58,370 --> 00:15:01,049
因为metal现在的剧本已经彻底变了
335
00:15:01,049 --> 00:15:04,259
他不再是那个精打细算的效率年故事
336
00:15:04,259 --> 00:15:07,139
而是把2026年的资本开支目标
337
00:15:07,139 --> 00:15:11,210
直接抬到了1150亿到1350亿美元
338
00:15:11,210 --> 00:15:13,490
这比2025年高出了一大截
339
00:15:13,490 --> 00:15:15,970
说明小修小补已经结束了
340
00:15:15,970 --> 00:15:20,700
扎克伯格现在是要用真金白银去重建整个算力底座
341
00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:23,659
那么这台烧钱机到底稳不稳呢
342
00:15:23,659 --> 00:15:25,919
我们要从三个层面拆解
343
00:15:25,919 --> 00:15:29,279
首先得看广告业务的供血能力够不够
344
00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:32,340
现在AI公司是先烧钱再等变现
345
00:15:32,340 --> 00:15:33,379
meta不一样
346
00:15:33,379 --> 00:15:36,450
它是先有广告这台超级印钞机
347
00:15:36,450 --> 00:15:38,690
再拿赚来的钱去投AI
348
00:15:38,690 --> 00:15:40,610
只要广告主业够硬
349
00:15:40,610 --> 00:15:42,710
市场就愿意给他时间
350
00:15:42,710 --> 00:15:44,190
但这里有个隐忧
351
00:15:44,190 --> 00:15:47,070
第一季度预期总收入增长31%
352
00:15:47,070 --> 00:15:50,049
可税前利润预期只增长了10%
353
00:15:50,049 --> 00:15:51,950
这就释放了一个信号
354
00:15:51,950 --> 00:15:54,730
成本压力已经开始吃掉利润了
355
00:15:54,730 --> 00:15:57,230
如果广告增速稍微一喘气
356
00:15:57,230 --> 00:16:01,419
这种高投入就会从未来产能变成沉重的成本包袱
357
00:16:01,419 --> 00:16:02,820
顺着这个成本压力
358
00:16:02,820 --> 00:16:04,019
我们要看第二点
359
00:16:04,019 --> 00:16:05,159
钱花出去了
360
00:16:05,159 --> 00:16:06,600
回报路径在哪
361
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,600
1100多亿的投入已经不是普通扩张
362
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,649
而是巨头级别的基建豪赌市场想看的是这些钱投下去
363
00:16:14,649 --> 00:16:17,049
能不能让广告主的回报率更高
364
00:16:17,049 --> 00:16:20,090
如果meta敢继续上调开支指引
365
00:16:20,090 --> 00:16:23,029
但同时能证明广告价格还在涨
366
00:16:23,029 --> 00:16:25,960
那市场反而会觉得这是强者恒强的信号
367
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:27,879
反之如果开支再加码
368
00:16:27,879 --> 00:16:30,009
广告却没超预期
369
00:16:30,009 --> 00:16:35,809
资金会毫不留情地把meta从AI平台股打回高投入广告股
370
00:16:35,809 --> 00:16:39,029
这里就涉及到一个很多人容易忽略的胜负手
371
00:16:39,029 --> 00:16:41,149
metal的自研芯片ASIC
372
00:16:41,149 --> 00:16:44,450
大家别光盯着迈腾买了多少英伟达的GPU
373
00:16:44,450 --> 00:16:47,610
真正重要的是它跟博通的深度定制合作
374
00:16:47,610 --> 00:16:51,129
meta的MTA芯片路线图非常清晰
375
00:16:51,129 --> 00:16:53,990
从310路排到了500系列
376
00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:58,769
自研芯片的真正意义是让metal运行自家的拉马大模型时
377
00:16:58,769 --> 00:17:01,899
成本比用通用GPU更低更稳定
378
00:17:01,899 --> 00:17:03,820
只要AICIC进展明确
379
00:17:03,820 --> 00:17:06,980
实际上就会认为metal的高投入不是无底洞
380
00:17:06,980 --> 00:17:09,460
而是在建立长期的成本优势
381
00:17:09,460 --> 00:17:11,078
最后我们说回变现
382
00:17:11,078 --> 00:17:13,798
很多人问meta的AI开源不收费
383
00:17:13,798 --> 00:17:14,618
他图什么
384
00:17:14,618 --> 00:17:18,409
其实meta的逻辑根本不是靠买模型接口赚钱
385
00:17:18,409 --> 00:17:20,709
它是要把AI塞回广告系统里
386
00:17:20,709 --> 00:17:22,088
让推荐更精准
387
00:17:22,088 --> 00:17:23,650
让用户停留更久
388
00:17:23,650 --> 00:17:25,589
只要广告系统被AI放大
389
00:17:25,589 --> 00:17:27,690
它的商业价值就不可估量
390
00:17:27,690 --> 00:17:30,849
甚至有预测说到2026年
391
00:17:30,849 --> 00:17:34,089
meta的净广告收入会首次超过谷歌
392
00:17:34,089 --> 00:17:35,809
所以总结一下财报后
393
00:17:35,809 --> 00:17:36,450
资金怎么走
394
00:17:36,450 --> 00:17:38,019
就看三个硬指标
395
00:17:38,019 --> 00:17:41,180
第一广告收入能不能站上550亿美元
396
00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:43,119
第二资本开支上调的同时
397
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:44,710
回报路径清不清晰
398
00:17:44,710 --> 00:17:45,829
第三个what's app
399
00:17:45,829 --> 00:17:48,230
这些产品有没有具体的商业化型号
400
00:17:48,230 --> 00:17:51,509
回顾meta过去十次财报虽然有六次上涨
401
00:17:51,509 --> 00:17:55,269
但另外四次大跌通常都是10%左右的跌幅
402
00:17:55,269 --> 00:17:59,349
但是我们总结到meta股价的节奏是虽然回调升
403
00:17:59,349 --> 00:18:00,670
但反弹也快
404
00:18:00,670 --> 00:18:04,809
扎克伯格对AI投入激进指引常常引发短期恐慌
405
00:18:04,809 --> 00:18:08,929
但最终都会被广告业务的强劲盈利能力带回新高
406
00:18:08,929 --> 00:18:12,729
而且暴力裁员后节省了大量长期的人力成本
407
00:18:12,729 --> 00:18:15,190
财报不会太难看好啦
408
00:18:15,190 --> 00:18:17,809
以上就是四家科技巨头的财报前瞻
409
00:18:17,809 --> 00:18:19,089
我们跳过了微软
410
00:18:19,089 --> 00:18:20,109
你最看好哪家
411
00:18:20,109 --> 00:18:21,609
欢迎在评论区留言
412
00:18:21,609 --> 00:18:24,130
我手中掌握了300份机构的研报
413
00:18:24,130 --> 00:18:27,069
接下来你还想看哪家公司的财报前瞻
414
00:18:27,069 --> 00:18:27,809
告诉我
415
00:18:27,809 --> 00:18:29,910
如果这期视频点赞过2000
416
00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:32,529
我会挑一家继续深度拆解
417
00:18:32,529 --> 00:18:34,329
现在就动动你发财的小手
418
00:18:34,329 --> 00:18:35,279
帮我点个赞
419
00:18:35,279 --> 00:18:37,900
转发给身边也在关注美国的朋友