【NaNa说美股】20260623绊倒体三傻！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是6月23号周二

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全球科技股呢遭遇了大规模抛售潮

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都以为要等美光科技发财报

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大家才会一起看眼色

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这个掀桌子

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结果韩国不讲武德

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今天提早抢跑了

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日韩股市呢集体回调

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AI硬件分享标

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韩国综合指数cos p跌到了熔断

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权重股

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三星SK海力士呢都大跌超过了12%

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SK海力士昨天市值一度超过嗯

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三星电子被部分交易员解读为市场过热的信号

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反正每次暴跌的时候呢

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总是会有小作文出来作妖

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韩联社发布了一篇

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议员们正在讨论

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对股票和房地产未实现收益的征税这个政策

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小作文啊

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还有大兴证券呢

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称SK海力士正在放缓HBM4产能

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将更多产能退回到利润更高的大中低

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ram hb e m4仍在进行英伟达的认证

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而robe的这个生产预测据报道也已经下调了

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所以今天把英伟达也给带崩了

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cturney research也凑热闹

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称SK海力士计划中的ADR上市出现了严

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以及韩国未能成功纳入MSCI发达市场指数

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引发了失望情绪

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但我是完全没有找到

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关于这个海力士ADR延迟的官方报道哈

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不知道他这个city new research的小作文是哪来的

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这个信息

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韩国股市近期呢因为AI芯片热潮

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积累了巨大的获利盘

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基本上是全员杠杆

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所以呢最近就一直警告行业展示过热呃

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小作文这么一三分

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这个高位敏感的市场

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瞬间就变成了多杀多的踩踏现场

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韩国大盘都被玩成了妖股

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动不动的就熔断

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隔三差五就要报一批融资客

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股市彻底币圈化了

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随后这个避险情绪呢

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就迅速从韩国蔓延到了华尔街

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在美股盘前

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主要科技股也出现了显著的下跌

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开盘后有一部分抄底资金立即冲进去了

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把指数股价都给拉起来

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但是末日期权交易员们日内激进的逢高做空哈

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把反弹给按了下去

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日内资金博弈剧烈

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有的时候吧当你想缓一缓再买它呢

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就往往直接V上去了

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等你急着这个开盘就出手了呢

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它又盘中加速下跌

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所以想当一个合格的韭菜也不容易

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最终三大股指还是集体收跌了

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纳指重挫2.21%

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标普500呢收跌1.44%

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道指基本平收

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板块热力图来看是有红有绿各占一半江山

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这说明场内资金在进行轮动

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并没有出现普跌恐慌指数

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VIX日内一度飙升18%

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冲上20之后回落

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昨天我才刚放过话

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未来几天咱们极有可能看到维克斯突然冲高

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今天立马应验

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主力机构们挺鸡贼的哈

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就偷偷摸摸的进村打枪的不要

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所以前几天mix只是重心缓慢抬升

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今天突然就拔地而起

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大跌呢从来都是出其不意的

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但是光看我近期复盘的朋友们

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这一波下跌根本不应该意外

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无论是在最近呃公开视频还是在会员内容里哈

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我都反复提醒了很多次

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这个6月下旬

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美股市场面临着短期下行压力

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今天VX虽然是回落下去了

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但是呢还没有到我们可以真正放松的时候嗯

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这个周三盘后美观科技财报

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周四PC1数据都是潜在的风险事件

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哈维克斯可能还会再次向上脉冲呃

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这个黄金呢明显承压

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日内一度跌破每盎司4100美元关口

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自今年2月末中东冲突爆发以来

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黄金已经累计下跌超过了20%

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技术上已经正式迈入熊市区间

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市场对于美联储年内进一步加息的担忧

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正在加剧

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机构呢下调黄金预期

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打击市场信心

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油价回落一度为黄金提供了支撑

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但是最近美元的这个强势抵消了这一影响

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由于市场对美联储加息的预期升温

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美元继续走高

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而黄金与美元走势呢一般呈反向波动关系

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美元走强会抑制金价

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美元走弱呢则有助于金价散

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新交易员们现在是全面缴械了哈

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倾向于认为

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黄金在美是4000美元到4300美元之间的

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这个区间内先苟着嗯

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直到有新的数据出来

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要么直接坐实了美联储的鹰派倾向

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要么重新塑造这个货币前景

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日元还在地下室里趴着

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昨天煲了一个小时的电话粥

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达成了可能需要采取大胆行动的共识哈

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所以现在全场交易员都在死盯着这个汇率干预

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我觉得可能还有很大一部分原因

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就是机构们在卖出美股

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套取现金

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降低日元套利交易的杠杆

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就像2024年78月份美股大跌

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导火索

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虽然是那个所谓的呃萨姆规则

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其实就是日元套利交易大规模平仓所导致的哈

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美股后来呢就很快恢复了上涨

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这次我觉得问题也不大啦

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这事儿已经有了心理准备了

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不会像那次那样子让人措手不及

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技术面上

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标普500指数呢今天跳空低开

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虽然在50日均线找到了一点微弱支撑哈

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但是收盘仍被按在所有短期均线下方

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日K尤其收出了长上影线

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这表明上方的抛压沉重

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风险可能还没有这个释放完毕

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坏消息就是指数的短期趋势已经破位转弱了

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50日均线如果失守的话

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那指数还得往下试探

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而好消息呢

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就是美股大盘指数向上跳空高开的缺口哈

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虽然很多都不会回补

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但是呢向下跳空低开的缺口基本上是必补的

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快则两三个交易日内

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慢则两三周内

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这个缺口一定会去拿掉

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因为呃美股大盘它自带长期向上的牛市本能

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向下跳空呢

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通常只是由于短期的非理性恐慌

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或者杠杆盘踩踏造成的情绪失真哈

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一旦夜间利空出尽了

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长线价值资金和被动指数基金必然会进场抄底

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把这个黄金坑给填满

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而反之

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指数向上跳空高开

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那往往是顺应了长期经济增长和企业

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盈利的趋势

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所以他不需要也不愿意再回头

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这个呃往下去回补缺口

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知道这个规律呢

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你才会有这个底气和耐心

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等指数下跌企稳后敢于去抄底哈

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呃左侧建仓不需要完美的抄在最低点

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因为你知道这个缺口的引力呢

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迟早会把指数拉回去

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但这也不是咱们呃一把梭哈的理由

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毕竟咱们这个子弹有限

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不像巴菲特那前几千亿美元

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所以咱们要买还是得有计划有策略的分批买入

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而这个缺口补的快慢呢

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直接暴露多头的真实实力哈

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这个缺口补得越快

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那说明多头越强哈

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牛市继续

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如果拖两三周才勉强补上哈

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那说明这个市场流动性吃紧

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多头能拉得很吃力

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金融市场其实嗯还在消化

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上周美联储偏鹰派会议的影响

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华尔街的策略师们

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对于美股后市走向了看法分歧

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以高盛花大小魔为首的华尔街大亨们

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看淡这一轮抛售哈

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他们坚信标普500这个年底能够冲上8000点

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所以告诉客户们逢低买入

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这其实也是典型的套牢盘

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拉客话输了

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只要他们手里还有货

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嘴里就永远有关

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而另一些呢则更为怀疑

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其中以美银最为激进

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美银的量化策略团队明确建议客户获利了结

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认为当前市场已经出现了太多危险信号嗯

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美银的熊市信号指标已经升到了70%

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与历史见顶平均水平相当

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该行维持标普500年底目标价7100点

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甚至预测这个下半年会有三次加息

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这激进的有点失心疯了哈

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老实说这加息三次

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那属于典型的语不惊人死不休啊

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我呢其实更赞同大魔家的MICHAELWILSON的观点

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这也是咱们很熟悉的一位策略师嗯

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上周FMC会议后

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美股走弱

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美元指数飙升

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贵金属黄金白银遭到抛售

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这并不是美联储政策失误

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大家都知道这个握手是川普命名的嘛

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大家就怀疑他是不是呃川普的傀儡啊

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就指哪打哪啊

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所以等到他表现出不一样的鹰派姿态

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来这个向市场证明美联储的独立性嗯

211
00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,139
通过鹰派沟通来引导市场重新定价

212
00:10:10,139 --> 00:10:11,318
利率入境

213
00:10:11,318 --> 00:10:13,519
借助金融条件收紧

214
00:10:13,519 --> 00:10:16,639
提前实现了部分加息的效果

215
00:10:16,639 --> 00:10:18,960
而当下这个市场的下跌呢

216
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,240
则更像是一场压力测试哈

217
00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,269
测试washer的政策底线

218
00:10:23,269 --> 00:10:27,029
考验他是否真的能够坚持当前的立场

219
00:10:27,029 --> 00:10:28,610
MICHAELWILSON警告称

220
00:10:28,610 --> 00:10:30,200
在7月之前

221
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,799
市场最核心的风险其实是美联储缩表预期下的

222
00:10:34,799 --> 00:10:36,100
流动性收紧

223
00:10:36,100 --> 00:10:38,318
而不是短期内加息

224
00:10:38,318 --> 00:10:41,038
这其实也完美印证了我开头的观点

225
00:10:41,038 --> 00:10:42,990
就是在这个6月底哈

226
00:10:42,990 --> 00:10:46,549
嗯咱们操作上呢最好就保守一些

227
00:10:46,549 --> 00:10:47,589
多看少动

228
00:10:47,589 --> 00:10:51,188
等主力养老金CCTA他们砸完了

229
00:10:51,188 --> 00:10:53,419
流动性逆风消散之后

230
00:10:53,419 --> 00:10:55,620
有盈利驱动的牛市

231
00:10:55,620 --> 00:10:57,220
第二阶段才会真正开启

232
00:10:57,220 --> 00:11:00,559
到时候就靠这个7月份美股Q2财报季

233
00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,179
这个新的催化剂来推动美股了

234
00:11:03,179 --> 00:11:06,320
费城半导体指数今天狂泻7.9%

235
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:10,809
存储光通信等前期热门AI硬件都是重灾区

236
00:11:10,809 --> 00:11:13,070
SNDK美光科技

237
00:11:13,070 --> 00:11:16,070
迈威尔科技等等集体吃瘪呃

238
00:11:16,070 --> 00:11:19,110
理由是投资者越来越担心利率上升与AI

239
00:11:19,110 --> 00:11:22,179
基础设施的巨额支出持续性

240
00:11:22,179 --> 00:11:25,889
并且重新评估了人工智能相关公司的前景

241
00:11:25,889 --> 00:11:28,769
那之前无脑上涨的时候

242
00:11:28,769 --> 00:11:29,669
岁月静好

243
00:11:29,669 --> 00:11:32,318
为什么今天就突然担忧了呢

244
00:11:32,318 --> 00:11:34,739
别听那些分析师们扯淡哈

245
00:11:34,739 --> 00:11:37,578
表面上是重新评估AI前景

246
00:11:37,578 --> 00:11:39,759
实际上就是华尔街要收割了嘛

247
00:11:39,759 --> 00:11:41,490
总得给下跌找个借口

248
00:11:41,490 --> 00:11:44,350
主力全在跑入全球养老金

249
00:11:44,350 --> 00:11:48,070
对冲基金CCTA本周都是净卖价

250
00:11:48,070 --> 00:11:50,909
养老金季末调仓要砸出几百亿美元

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00:11:50,909 --> 00:11:53,549
CCTA呢顺势要砸出几10亿美元

252
00:11:53,549 --> 00:11:55,710
对冲基金卖出量不太清楚哈

253
00:11:55,710 --> 00:11:58,929
呃所以这个市场本来就面临着短期逆风

254
00:11:58,929 --> 00:12:01,149
空头们一看天时地利人和

255
00:12:01,149 --> 00:12:03,279
也加入了高空大军

256
00:12:03,279 --> 00:12:04,700
上述种种因素

257
00:12:04,700 --> 00:12:07,840
共同引发了这新一轮的大范围获利量

258
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,519
这就是我在上周五视频里警告的

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00:12:10,519 --> 00:12:11,879
35日结束之后

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00:12:11,879 --> 00:12:12,919
疯狂两周

261
00:12:12,919 --> 00:12:15,820
开启这个寂寞再平衡的窗口期

262
00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:17,559
一直持续到6月30号

263
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:18,860
所以在这个月底

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00:12:18,860 --> 00:12:21,820
这一帮主力基金把货出完之前

265
00:12:21,820 --> 00:12:24,679
行情注定了会非常的颠簸

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00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,039
而且呢市场流动性也不足了哈

267
00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:28,659
正在集体去杠杆

268
00:12:28,659 --> 00:12:30,149
所以波动会放大

269
00:12:30,149 --> 00:12:33,289
昨天三倍做多半导体SOOXL

270
00:12:33,289 --> 00:12:36,169
创下历史第二大资金流出

271
00:12:36,169 --> 00:12:40,690
三倍做空SOOXS呢创下了历史最大流入

272
00:12:40,690 --> 00:12:45,450
所以咱们就别把锅铲全部扣在韩国人头上了哈

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00:12:45,450 --> 00:12:47,070
华尔街的金融巨鳄们

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00:12:47,070 --> 00:12:49,940
早在几天前就已经挖好了坑

275
00:12:49,940 --> 00:12:52,659
今天只是顺理成章的拉线

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00:12:52,659 --> 00:12:53,320
祈望啊

277
00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,240
镰刀都挥出了火星

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00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,379
AI硬件短期降温

279
00:12:57,379 --> 00:13:00,600
泡沫破裂论呢又开始卷土重来

280
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:01,879
就没完没了

281
00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:03,080
但是在我看来哈

282
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:08,740
这只是这个AI硬件短期嗯超涨了之后

283
00:13:08,740 --> 00:13:11,440
借着这个美光科技财报窗口期

284
00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,489
进行了一次高位获利了结与杀杠杆而已哈

285
00:13:15,489 --> 00:13:16,808
就这么简单

286
00:13:16,808 --> 00:13:21,409
AI这个基建趋势在未来几个季度依然无法扭转

287
00:13:21,409 --> 00:13:24,889
嗯但是呢上涨并不是直线啊

288
00:13:24,889 --> 00:13:26,330
不挖几个大坑

289
00:13:26,330 --> 00:13:28,759
不把散户的杠杆盘给洗干

290
00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:32,080
进了那主力机构们怎么去拿廉价筹码呢

291
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:37,029
后面还有onto pick和OpenAI排队等着IPO上市呢

292
00:13:37,029 --> 00:13:40,000
他俩背后庞大的利益集团

293
00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,279
硅谷大佬们都等着期权套现

294
00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:44,539
财富自由哈

295
00:13:44,539 --> 00:13:47,279
所以这个AI剧情绝不会在这里

296
00:13:47,279 --> 00:13:49,658
就剧终的短期行情

297
00:13:49,658 --> 00:13:53,499
咱们就看市场对美观科技的季候反应了

298
00:13:53,499 --> 00:13:57,600
由于部分投资者担心买方预期被拉的太高

299
00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,039
今天这个美光科技的股价暴跌

300
00:14:00,039 --> 00:14:03,659
其实也是在提前宣泄恐高情绪哈

301
00:14:03,659 --> 00:14:08,519
市场因为这种小作文杀杠杆出现的非理性暴跌

302
00:14:08,519 --> 00:14:11,159
只要大趋势没有垮的话

303
00:14:11,159 --> 00:14:15,250
那每一次砸出的大坑呢都是很好的抄底机会呃

304
00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:16,190
其他个股方面

305
00:14:16,190 --> 00:14:18,370
space x股价今天小幅反弹

306
00:14:18,370 --> 00:14:21,089
最低涨到了147美元

307
00:14:21,089 --> 00:14:22,168
坏消息是

308
00:14:22,168 --> 00:14:25,369
木头姐昨天大跌的时候又进去疯狂扫货

309
00:14:25,369 --> 00:14:26,808
买入了21万股

310
00:14:26,808 --> 00:14:28,990
价值3250万美元

311
00:14:28,990 --> 00:14:30,169
就他不买

312
00:14:30,169 --> 00:14:33,190
我对于space x反弹还是挺有信心的哈

313
00:14:33,190 --> 00:14:33,830
他一买

314
00:14:33,830 --> 00:14:35,570
我心里反而犯嘀咕了

315
00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:37,870
毕竟反向指标名不虚传

316
00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:38,789
好消息呢

317
00:14:38,789 --> 00:14:41,929
就是这个下周16月29号

318
00:14:41,929 --> 00:14:44,370
SPACEX就要正式纳入呃

319
00:14:44,370 --> 00:14:47,870
m s sci全球指数和罗素1000

320
00:14:47,870 --> 00:14:50,750
这一周追踪这些指数的被动基金

321
00:14:50,750 --> 00:14:53,659
就必须硬着头皮买够筹码

322
00:14:53,659 --> 00:14:57,259
由于目前有占流通股大约5%到7%

323
00:14:57,259 --> 00:14:58,980
的空头头寸卡子哈

324
00:14:58,980 --> 00:15:00,788
所以我觉得这个股价

325
00:15:00,788 --> 00:15:03,229
这周破发的概率是比较低的

326
00:15:03,229 --> 00:15:06,100
进入指数之后才是真正的考验

327
00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:08,980
量子计算概念股INFQ呢

328
00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:10,519
今天涨超12%

329
00:15:10,519 --> 00:15:12,210
IBM涨超5%

330
00:15:12,210 --> 00:15:15,990
川普的催票能力再次得到了肉眼确认

331
00:15:15,990 --> 00:15:18,539
我不跟这些量子股谈什么

332
00:15:18,539 --> 00:15:19,440
星辰大海

333
00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,659
反正能涨几天算几天哈

334
00:15:21,659 --> 00:15:24,100
因为流动性若是真的一收紧呢

335
00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:26,970
这些热钱跑步的都比谁都快

336
00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:31,259
AI芯片制造商碰瓷英伟达的那个次新股

337
00:15:31,259 --> 00:15:34,639
CBRS今天盘后公布了上市第一份财报

338
00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:36,759
公司Q1营收1.9亿美元

339
00:15:36,759 --> 00:15:38,629
同比增长94%

340
00:15:38,629 --> 00:15:40,529
每股亏损22美分

341
00:15:40,529 --> 00:15:43,589
只要差于市场预期的亏损16美分

342
00:15:43,589 --> 00:15:47,668
同时呢公司还宣布了与OpenAI达成多年期协议

343
00:15:47,668 --> 00:15:50,110
规模达750兆瓦

344
00:15:50,110 --> 00:15:51,990
价值超过200亿美元

345
00:15:51,990 --> 00:15:54,370
但是这个订单大家早就已经知道了哈

346
00:15:54,370 --> 00:15:57,029
投行为布什在财报前还昧着良心

347
00:15:57,029 --> 00:15:58,809
唱多达270美元

348
00:15:58,809 --> 00:16:02,679
说背靠这个OpenAI与和亚马逊这个公司

349
00:16:02,679 --> 00:16:04,720
没有任何需求风险

350
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:05,059
呃

351
00:16:05,059 --> 00:16:05,820
信他个鬼

352
00:16:05,820 --> 00:16:07,320
因为这股票上市之前

353
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,159
威布什也是把它吹得天花乱坠的哈

354
00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:13,679
现在套牢盘能够绕地球跑两圈了嗯

355
00:16:13,679 --> 00:16:17,039
AAMC院院线股价呢高台跳水

356
00:16:17,039 --> 00:16:18,599
跌了24.6%

357
00:16:18,599 --> 00:16:21,698
公司毫不意外地宣布定向增发

358
00:16:21,698 --> 00:16:23,899
9525万股

359
00:16:23,899 --> 00:16:25,669
圈钱2亿美元

360
00:16:25,669 --> 00:16:29,230
前面那一波这个毫无基本面的无脑拉升

361
00:16:29,230 --> 00:16:32,289
纯粹就是为了这次抽血而做准备的哈

362
00:16:32,289 --> 00:16:35,429
散户们进去都是甜馅的肉包子

363
00:16:35,429 --> 00:16:39,049
美国基建承包商PERIM

364
00:16:41,929 --> 00:16:43,990
因为公司的核心太阳能业务呢

365
00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:46,600
连续两个季度成本超支

366
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:47,879
工期延误

367
00:16:47,879 --> 00:16:52,269
高管求部门的总裁CEOO都接连离职

368
00:16:52,269 --> 00:16:54,159
管理层乱成了一锅粥

369
00:16:54,159 --> 00:16:56,419
虽然今天盘中有空头回补

370
00:16:56,419 --> 00:16:58,159
收窄了日内一半跌幅

371
00:16:58,159 --> 00:17:01,159
但是这种对运行情况不了解

372
00:17:01,159 --> 00:17:03,059
内部治理又有毒的公司

373
00:17:03,059 --> 00:17:05,930
我觉得还是不太想去接飞刀呃

374
00:17:05,930 --> 00:17:08,349
行今天我们就说到这里

375
00:17:08,349 --> 00:17:10,539
那我们明天见拜拜

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