【Financial Education】美股科技股将迎来下一波暴涨

1
00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:01,540
你准备好赚钱了吗

2
00:00:01,540 --> 00:00:03,500
准备好见证那边的煎饼被翻炒了吗

3
00:00:03,500 --> 00:00:04,160
女士们先生们

4
00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,939
我们有一个股市即将迎来新一轮重大波动

5
00:00:06,939 --> 00:00:08,698
我们将讨论这里正在发生的事情

6
00:00:08,698 --> 00:00:09,919
我有一些激动人心的消息

7
00:00:09,919 --> 00:00:11,378
如果你在考虑像

8
00:00:11,378 --> 00:00:13,419
股市是否见顶了

9
00:00:13,419 --> 00:00:17,920
我们是否处于某个即将爆发的行业面前

10
00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,789
我有一些非常令人兴奋的内容要和大家分享

11
00:00:21,789 --> 00:00:23,789
在今天的视频开头部分

12
00:00:23,789 --> 00:00:24,969
所以我们马上进入正题

13
00:00:24,969 --> 00:00:25,710
完成这些之后

14
00:00:25,710 --> 00:00:27,969
在经历所有这些后我想谈谈汤姆·李

15
00:00:27,969 --> 00:00:29,920
汤姆·李最近在CNBC做了访谈

16
00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:31,000
谈论他的观点

17
00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:32,280
关于市场未来的走势

18
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,939
我想分享我的看法和见解

19
00:00:33,939 --> 00:00:36,299
谈到市场空头

20
00:00:36,299 --> 00:00:37,340
仍然处于冬眠状态

21
00:00:37,340 --> 00:00:38,219
在英伟达财报发布后

22
00:00:38,219 --> 00:00:39,979
我期待观察

23
00:00:39,979 --> 00:00:42,060
看看丹·伊的西装外套

24
00:00:42,060 --> 00:00:44,219
天啊这可不是闹着玩的

25
00:00:44,219 --> 00:00:46,299
最后我想回应的内容

26
00:00:46,299 --> 00:00:47,219
这实际上非常重要

27
00:00:47,219 --> 00:00:50,409
美光科技CEO前几天在彭博社接受采访

28
00:00:50,409 --> 00:00:51,670
谈及芯片生产

29
00:00:51,670 --> 00:00:52,609
内存需求

30
00:00:52,609 --> 00:00:53,369
这些相关话题

31
00:00:53,369 --> 00:00:55,920
这是一个值得认真倾听的重要人物

32
00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,420
因为推动市场的主要力量正是半导体行业

33
00:00:59,420 --> 00:01:01,200
没错英伟达

34
00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:01,799
美光科技

35
00:01:01,799 --> 00:01:02,759
这类公司

36
00:01:02,759 --> 00:01:05,159
听取他的观点

37
00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:08,019
在这个局势中至关重要的人物

38
00:01:08,019 --> 00:01:09,099
有很多内容需要梳理

39
00:01:09,099 --> 00:01:10,420
我们直接切入重点

40
00:01:10,420 --> 00:01:11,459
感谢大家的参与

41
00:01:11,459 --> 00:01:11,780
有一点

42
00:01:11,780 --> 00:01:12,780
只有一件事需要你们

43
00:01:12,780 --> 00:01:14,120
点个赞按钮

44
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:14,840
那个点赞图标

45
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:15,159
小图标

46
00:01:15,159 --> 00:01:16,439
如果你能为我点亮光芒

47
00:01:16,439 --> 00:01:17,750
这意义重大

48
00:01:17,750 --> 00:01:18,250
此外

49
00:01:18,250 --> 00:01:20,010
由于我是在阵亡将士纪念日录制的

50
00:01:20,010 --> 00:01:21,409
我们有纪念日特惠

51
00:01:21,409 --> 00:01:23,569
正在升级我的最高Patreon tier

52
00:01:23,569 --> 00:01:24,730
这就是黄金 tier

53
00:01:24,730 --> 00:01:27,549
我会把链接作为置顶评论贴在那里今天

54
00:01:27,549 --> 00:01:28,849
如果你明天观看这个视频

55
00:01:28,849 --> 00:01:30,420
促销活动可能已经结束

56
00:01:30,420 --> 00:01:32,500
但目前活动正在进行中

57
00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:33,760
价格是49美元

58
00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,719
通常这个 tier 是145美元

59
00:01:35,719 --> 00:01:38,939
务必抓住这个机会 这是进入我的顶级股票课程的权限

60
00:01:38,939 --> 00:01:42,319
从此获得股票市场的专家级权限 看到买卖操作

61
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,260
每周在我的Patreon投资组合中

62
00:01:44,260 --> 00:01:46,049
你还能获得其他资源

63
00:01:46,049 --> 00:01:48,909
这就是我的最高Patreon tier

64
00:01:48,909 --> 00:01:49,489
好的

65
00:01:52,060 --> 00:01:54,719
标普500期货上涨

66
00:01:54,719 --> 00:01:56,159
表现非常出色

67
00:01:56,159 --> 00:01:58,299
整体呈现绿色上涨

68
00:01:58,299 --> 00:02:01,939
这得益于地缘政治相关因素

69
00:02:01,939 --> 00:02:02,879
没错

70
00:02:02,879 --> 00:02:03,739
嗯

71
00:02:03,739 --> 00:02:05,159
显然

72
00:02:06,739 --> 00:02:08,818
如果局势逐渐缓和

73
00:02:08,818 --> 00:02:10,538
中东油价下跌

74
00:02:10,538 --> 00:02:13,318
这会减少对通胀的担忧

75
00:02:13,318 --> 00:02:17,819
通胀担忧减少可能导致美联储降息

76
00:02:17,819 --> 00:02:18,379
嗯

77
00:02:18,379 --> 00:02:20,080
今年可能有几次

78
00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:21,419
然后整个

79
00:02:21,419 --> 00:02:21,939
我意思是

80
00:02:21,939 --> 00:02:24,400
埃迪或丹尼最近提到

81
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,530
可能7月会加息

82
00:02:27,530 --> 00:02:28,310
我当时就说

83
00:02:28,310 --> 00:02:29,110
这有点疯狂

84
00:02:29,110 --> 00:02:29,870
你有这个想法吗

85
00:02:29,870 --> 00:02:32,849
即使存在这种可能性

86
00:02:32,849 --> 00:02:34,810
我们必须消除这种顾虑

87
00:02:34,810 --> 00:02:35,430
嗯

88
00:02:35,430 --> 00:02:37,819
故事的核心在于

89
00:02:37,819 --> 00:02:39,099
未来前景光明

90
00:02:39,099 --> 00:02:40,740
这意味着未来前景光明

91
00:02:40,740 --> 00:02:42,360
许多股票都将受益

92
00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,340
尤其是在现阶段

93
00:02:44,340 --> 00:02:45,099
市场

94
00:02:45,099 --> 00:02:49,169
必须理解市场主要由英伟达和AMD支撑

95
00:02:49,169 --> 00:02:50,929
AMD的市值持续攀升

96
00:02:50,929 --> 00:02:52,649
微芯片类股票

97
00:02:52,649 --> 00:02:54,150
波动率方面

98
00:02:54,150 --> 00:02:55,310
台积电

99
00:02:55,310 --> 00:02:57,370
这类大市值股票表现强劲

100
00:02:57,370 --> 00:02:58,110
你知道的

101
00:02:58,110 --> 00:03:00,830
这个市场是否会像ASML一样飙升

102
00:03:00,830 --> 00:03:03,949
比如那些与AI交易相关的一切

103
00:03:03,949 --> 00:03:06,270
甚至可以讨论像卡特彼勒这样的股票

104
00:03:06,270 --> 00:03:08,629
以及少数基建类投资品种

105
00:03:08,629 --> 00:03:10,650
但看看英伟达的市值吧

106
00:03:10,650 --> 00:03:12,169
这确实令人着迷

107
00:03:12,169 --> 00:03:13,699
就在视频里

108
00:03:13,699 --> 00:03:16,280
标普500指数的市值权重

109
00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:16,919
例如

110
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,419
相当于整个工业板块的总和

111
00:03:20,419 --> 00:03:23,770
超过了整个医疗保健板块

112
00:03:23,770 --> 00:03:26,229
超过了整个消费必需品板块

113
00:03:26,229 --> 00:03:28,770
远超能源板块

114
00:03:28,770 --> 00:03:31,650
远超公用事业或房地产或原材料板块

115
00:03:31,650 --> 00:03:36,300
没错，它仅略逊于消费 discretionary 板块

116
00:03:36,300 --> 00:03:39,349
这就是英伟达如今的规模

117
00:03:39,349 --> 00:03:40,990
故事的核心在于

118
00:03:40,990 --> 00:03:42,629
关于市场的现状

119
00:03:43,909 --> 00:03:47,099
英特尔、英伟达、AMD、美光

120
00:03:47,099 --> 00:03:49,419
所有这些股票开始下跌

121
00:03:49,419 --> 00:03:50,419
直到这种情况发生

122
00:03:50,419 --> 00:03:52,389
市场将持续上涨

123
00:03:52,389 --> 00:03:52,870
不

124
00:03:52,870 --> 00:03:56,629
可以讨论这些股票是否会在今年见顶

125
00:03:56,629 --> 00:03:57,800
明年

126
00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:59,060
2028年

127
00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:00,159
2029年

128
00:04:00,159 --> 00:04:01,219
这是合理的讨论

129
00:04:01,219 --> 00:04:03,819
我们可以争论何时会发生

130
00:04:03,819 --> 00:04:06,349
这很大程度上取决于

131
00:04:06,349 --> 00:04:09,599
大科技公司何时放缓开支

132
00:04:09,599 --> 00:04:11,400
如果它们真的放缓开支

133
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:12,500
会是明年吗

134
00:04:12,500 --> 00:04:13,580
会是下一年吗

135
00:04:13,580 --> 00:04:14,939
会是再下一年吗

136
00:04:14,939 --> 00:04:16,509
我们可以就此展开辩论

137
00:04:16,509 --> 00:04:20,370
但故事的核心是现在正是好时机

138
00:04:20,370 --> 00:04:22,649
直到英伟达见顶

139
00:04:22,649 --> 00:04:24,110
直到AMD见顶

140
00:04:24,110 --> 00:04:25,430
直到美光见顶

141
00:04:25,430 --> 00:04:27,529
直到博通见顶

142
00:04:27,529 --> 00:04:29,050
这类股票

143
00:04:29,050 --> 00:04:31,550
直到卡特彼勒在基建板块见顶

144
00:04:31,550 --> 00:04:32,930
直到这种情况发生

145
00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,250
市场将持续上涨

146
00:04:35,250 --> 00:04:36,410
一旦这种情况发生

147
00:04:36,410 --> 00:04:39,029
我们才能讨论市场会下跌

148
00:04:39,029 --> 00:04:41,310
但这种情况现在发生吗

149
00:04:41,310 --> 00:04:44,238
不，英伟达刚刚突破新高

150
00:04:44,238 --> 00:04:45,970
AMD也刚刚突破新高

151
00:04:45,970 --> 00:04:47,709
下一季度将会好上加好

152
00:04:47,709 --> 00:04:49,629
接下来的那个季度猜猜会怎样更好

153
00:04:49,629 --> 00:04:51,490
接下来的那个季度猜猜会怎样更好

154
00:04:51,490 --> 00:04:53,610
再下一个季度猜猜会怎样更好更好

155
00:04:53,610 --> 00:04:55,920
未来几年都将更好更好

156
00:04:57,399 --> 00:05:00,500
所以我们会在数据见顶前讨论

157
00:05:00,500 --> 00:05:02,399
但同样这也是一个争论话题

158
00:05:02,399 --> 00:05:02,939
你知道的

159
00:05:02,939 --> 00:05:05,660
AMD可能市值达到两三千亿美元

160
00:05:05,660 --> 00:05:06,540
在此期间

161
00:05:06,540 --> 00:05:09,339
有些人认为可能会突破五万亿美元

162
00:05:09,339 --> 00:05:11,180
这是我们能继续讨论的另一个话题

163
00:05:11,180 --> 00:05:12,259
但故事的寓意是

164
00:05:12,259 --> 00:05:13,019
我们将继续上涨

165
00:05:13,019 --> 00:05:16,910
至少在短期内再次强调

166
00:05:16,910 --> 00:05:17,810
两年后

167
00:05:17,810 --> 00:05:18,610
五年后

168
00:05:18,610 --> 00:05:19,569
我们可以辩论

169
00:05:19,569 --> 00:05:20,110
何时

170
00:05:20,110 --> 00:05:21,930
何时你知道我们开始反转

171
00:05:21,930 --> 00:05:22,490
转向另一方向

172
00:05:22,490 --> 00:05:23,529
但眼下

173
00:05:23,529 --> 00:05:26,949
这些特定股票正处于狂欢期

174
00:05:26,949 --> 00:05:29,189
如果你想了解市场整体的好消息

175
00:05:29,189 --> 00:05:31,848
让我分享一些非常非常好的消息

176
00:05:31,848 --> 00:05:32,189
好的

177
00:05:32,189 --> 00:05:33,668
我已在我的推特账号发布

178
00:05:33,668 --> 00:05:36,149
我的推特账号链接在下方描述区域

179
00:05:36,149 --> 00:05:37,569
我在那里发布了大量内容

180
00:05:37,569 --> 00:05:38,608
尤其是周一到周五

181
00:05:38,608 --> 00:05:39,309
如果你想关注我

182
00:05:39,309 --> 00:05:40,699
在推特上欢迎点赞

183
00:05:40,699 --> 00:05:42,579
我说链接在下方描述区域

184
00:05:42,579 --> 00:05:43,899
置顶评论将用于

185
00:05:43,899 --> 00:05:45,399
今天的Patreon促销活动

186
00:05:45,399 --> 00:05:46,100
不过

187
00:05:46,100 --> 00:05:47,810
但请听

188
00:05:48,009 --> 00:05:49,910
如果你查看公开账号

189
00:05:49,910 --> 00:05:51,129
我们会发现什么

190
00:05:51,129 --> 00:05:54,189
发现几只股票接近五倍

191
00:05:54,189 --> 00:05:54,829
两周高点

192
00:05:54,829 --> 00:05:55,810
AMD和亚马逊

193
00:05:55,810 --> 00:05:56,629
没错

194
00:05:56,629 --> 00:05:59,430
然后在公开账号中发现无数股票

195
00:05:59,430 --> 00:06:00,529
公开持仓看起来非常惊人

196
00:06:00,529 --> 00:06:03,079
没错四百一十万美元持仓

197
00:06:03,079 --> 00:06:04,779
但看看有多少股票接近

198
00:06:04,779 --> 00:06:06,639
五倍两周低点

199
00:06:06,639 --> 00:06:08,759
接近五倍两周低点

200
00:06:08,759 --> 00:06:09,319
没错

201
00:06:09,319 --> 00:06:10,288
我们有

202
00:06:10,288 --> 00:06:11,108
呃

203
00:06:11,108 --> 00:06:12,689
这是什么股票

204
00:06:12,689 --> 00:06:14,288
Salesforce对吧

205
00:06:14,288 --> 00:06:16,649
耐克美国运通

206
00:06:16,649 --> 00:06:18,230
甚至欧莱雅

207
00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:21,949
更诚实的PayPal

208
00:06:21,949 --> 00:06:23,529
Celsius服务

209
00:06:23,529 --> 00:06:24,290
现在

210
00:06:24,290 --> 00:06:25,250
谷歌不是

211
00:06:25,250 --> 00:06:26,589
谷歌表现惊人对吧

212
00:06:26,589 --> 00:06:26,970
呃

213
00:06:26,970 --> 00:06:28,730
这也是另一个与AI相关的投资机会

214
00:06:28,730 --> 00:06:29,410
就谷歌而言

215
00:06:29,410 --> 00:06:30,829
麦当劳继续上涨

216
00:06:30,829 --> 00:06:33,589
所以我围绕Elf

217
00:06:33,589 --> 00:06:36,370
这些股票何时会复苏

218
00:06:36,370 --> 00:06:37,430
我可以告诉你这一点

219
00:06:37,430 --> 00:06:38,709
它们一定会复苏

220
00:06:38,709 --> 00:06:40,269
并将开启史诗级行情

221
00:06:40,269 --> 00:06:42,310
令人兴奋的是

222
00:06:42,310 --> 00:06:46,370
或许当AI交易再次启动时

223
00:06:46,370 --> 00:06:47,050
我们可以争论

224
00:06:47,050 --> 00:06:48,529
是明年还是后年

225
00:06:48,529 --> 00:06:49,470
无论如何

226
00:06:49,470 --> 00:06:54,490
但当资金开始撤离AMD和英伟达

227
00:06:54,490 --> 00:06:57,009
以及美光、博通和谷歌

228
00:06:57,009 --> 00:06:58,769
以及这些持续增长的公司

229
00:06:58,769 --> 00:07:03,230
或许资金会流入过去几年表现疲软的股票

230
00:07:03,230 --> 00:07:05,310
这种可能性很高

231
00:07:05,310 --> 00:07:06,290
你知道的

232
00:07:06,290 --> 00:07:12,139
我希望所有AI基建相关股票的数字能无限上涨

233
00:07:12,139 --> 00:07:13,779
但显然不可能

234
00:07:13,779 --> 00:07:15,160
资金有限

235
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:16,319
这些公司内部

236
00:07:16,319 --> 00:07:18,019
Cap X已经

237
00:07:18,019 --> 00:07:18,759
你知道的

238
00:07:18,759 --> 00:07:19,680
夸张的数字

239
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,310
所以对于AMD

240
00:07:22,310 --> 00:07:23,649
它们可以继续受益

241
00:07:23,649 --> 00:07:24,310
呃

242
00:07:24,310 --> 00:07:26,110
从CPU和GPU需求中获利

243
00:07:26,110 --> 00:07:26,709
它们将

244
00:07:26,709 --> 00:07:27,149
它们表现良好

245
00:07:27,149 --> 00:07:30,079
在未来几年抢占市场份额和GPU市场

246
00:07:30,079 --> 00:07:34,060
而CPU即将迎来巨大增长周期

247
00:07:34,060 --> 00:07:36,358
令人激动的时期

248
00:07:36,358 --> 00:07:37,439
但你知道

249
00:07:37,439 --> 00:07:39,579
显然不会永远持续

250
00:07:39,579 --> 00:07:41,639
就像消费类股票

251
00:07:41,639 --> 00:07:42,439
当那些要跑的人

252
00:07:42,439 --> 00:07:43,759
他们不会永远持续下去对吧

253
00:07:43,759 --> 00:07:47,500
你可以在任何领域拥有两到五年的美好发展期

254
00:07:47,500 --> 00:07:49,620
然后它就会走到尽头对吧

255
00:07:49,620 --> 00:07:51,180
这并不意味着这些公司会破产

256
00:07:51,180 --> 00:07:51,949
或者他们搞砸了

257
00:07:51,949 --> 00:07:55,410
但它们会经历大幅下行周期资金转向其他领域

258
00:07:55,410 --> 00:07:59,149
因此我的观点是当我们经历

259
00:07:59,149 --> 00:08:01,790
下一轮资金周期开始启动

260
00:08:01,790 --> 00:08:03,579
这将持续数年时间

261
00:08:03,579 --> 00:08:06,040
英伟达将是第一个受到冲击的

262
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:07,800
尽管他们的数据表现最佳

263
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,980
他们是率先崛起的

264
00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:11,949
所以英伟达会是第一个

265
00:08:11,949 --> 00:08:15,569
因此资金将再次从英伟达流出

266
00:08:15,569 --> 00:08:17,029
争论是明年

267
00:08:17,029 --> 00:08:17,930
还是下一年

268
00:08:17,930 --> 00:08:21,600
无论如何资金将率先从英伟达流出

269
00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,439
并将开始转向可能的消费股

270
00:08:24,439 --> 00:08:26,279
像多年低迷的消费股

271
00:08:26,279 --> 00:08:27,500
这将成为下一波投资热点

272
00:08:27,500 --> 00:08:29,649
随着利率逐步降低

273
00:08:29,649 --> 00:08:31,509
经济信心逐渐增强

274
00:08:31,509 --> 00:08:33,509
但经济信心从未如此低迷

275
00:08:33,509 --> 00:08:34,309
自二十几年来

276
00:08:34,309 --> 00:08:35,190
二十一世纪

277
00:08:35,190 --> 00:08:37,110
甚至那时我们仍在经历

278
00:08:37,110 --> 00:08:38,149
仍然受新冠影响

279
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:40,990
人们仍担忧经济状况

280
00:08:40,990 --> 00:08:43,590
我们一直担忧经济

281
00:08:44,629 --> 00:08:47,379
可以说自新冠以来

282
00:08:47,379 --> 00:08:47,779
我是说

283
00:08:47,779 --> 00:08:51,139
人们最后一次认为经济强劲

284
00:08:51,139 --> 00:08:51,860
是在新冠之前

285
00:08:51,860 --> 00:08:53,679
大约在2019年

286
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:54,519
2018年

287
00:08:54,519 --> 00:08:57,600
2017年人们认为经济良好

288
00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,700
对吧 从那时起一直混乱

289
00:08:59,700 --> 00:09:01,559
新冠期间失业率高企

290
00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:02,480
但随后有刺激政策

291
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,159
这抵消了部分影响 然后经历超级通胀

292
00:09:05,159 --> 00:09:06,509
此后一直存在

293
00:09:07,370 --> 00:09:07,889
你知道的

294
00:09:07,889 --> 00:09:09,350
所有消费股都表现不佳

295
00:09:09,350 --> 00:09:11,909
消费股处于严酷环境

296
00:09:11,909 --> 00:09:13,029
任何面向消费者的股票

297
00:09:13,029 --> 00:09:17,750
对吧 所以总之这是一个复杂情况

298
00:09:17,750 --> 00:09:20,590
这些股票将复苏并迎来爆发

299
00:09:20,590 --> 00:09:22,559
但目前是

300
00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,279
半导体行业的盛宴

301
00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:26,909
如果你持有半导体股票

302
00:09:26,909 --> 00:09:30,870
你知道你的投资组合现在可能接近历史新高或正处于历史新高

303
00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:31,309
没错

304
00:09:31,309 --> 00:09:31,710
好的

305
00:09:31,710 --> 00:09:34,029
那我们继续回应一些视频回来

306
00:09:34,029 --> 00:09:35,429
那么你是如何评估当前形势的

307
00:09:35,429 --> 00:09:37,970
现在我们已经扫清了障碍

308
00:09:37,970 --> 00:09:40,480
所有人工智能相关的事情都已经过去

309
00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:41,700
我们正在关注收益率

310
00:09:41,700 --> 00:09:42,539
我们正在关注石油市场

311
00:09:42,539 --> 00:09:43,740
我们正在关注中东局势

312
00:09:43,740 --> 00:09:45,480
但你对这个市场怎么看

313
00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,019
当你刚才听到克里斯·哈维在节目开头说

314
00:09:48,019 --> 00:09:49,720
我们将迎来全面上涨行情

315
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,120
到年底将突破八千点

316
00:09:54,230 --> 00:09:54,990
是的

317
00:09:54,990 --> 00:09:56,590
嗯 嗯 是的

318
00:09:56,590 --> 00:09:58,669
我认为市场目前状况良好

319
00:09:58,669 --> 00:09:59,690
嗯

320
00:09:59,690 --> 00:10:03,309
在油价上涨面前市场仍显示出韧性

321
00:10:03,309 --> 00:10:04,429
收益率上升时市场依然稳健

322
00:10:04,429 --> 00:10:06,750
但我也觉得美国

323
00:10:06,750 --> 00:10:08,149
等等等等等等

324
00:10:08,149 --> 00:10:08,909
别急

325
00:10:08,909 --> 00:10:09,950
一个翻转和煎饼

326
00:10:09,950 --> 00:10:10,289
稍等片刻

327
00:10:10,289 --> 00:10:11,009
莉莎

328
00:10:11,009 --> 00:10:12,850
我认为市场并不健康

329
00:10:12,850 --> 00:10:14,409
市场并不健康

330
00:10:14,409 --> 00:10:15,809
从这个角度来看

331
00:10:15,809 --> 00:10:16,350
你知道的

332
00:10:16,350 --> 00:10:18,250
就像一周前或两周前那样

333
00:10:18,250 --> 00:10:21,090
我在频道里提到过超过70%的个股

334
00:10:21,090 --> 00:10:21,490
嗯

335
00:10:21,490 --> 00:10:24,659
标普3000中70%以上的股票

336
00:10:24,659 --> 00:10:27,450
可以将其视为整个股市

337
00:10:27,450 --> 00:10:30,610
我们从高点下跌了双位数甚至更多

338
00:10:31,610 --> 00:10:33,049
这实际上不是一个健康的市场

339
00:10:33,049 --> 00:10:36,480
市场的顶部区域是健康的

340
00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:38,600
但除此之外

341
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,059
我们实际上没有健康的市场

342
00:10:40,059 --> 00:10:40,860
现在

343
00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:44,000
健康的市场应该是70%以上的股票

344
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,490
或标普3000指数接近历史新高10%以内

345
00:10:48,490 --> 00:10:48,769
现在

346
00:10:48,769 --> 00:10:49,850
这才是健康的市场

347
00:10:49,850 --> 00:10:51,210
就像全面上涨的市场

348
00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:52,250
这种 rally 型市场

349
00:10:52,250 --> 00:10:54,610
这只是少数股票在拉动

350
00:10:54,610 --> 00:10:56,629
带动整个市场异常上涨

351
00:10:56,629 --> 00:10:59,490
因为我们确实有一个推动经济的结构性因素

352
00:10:59,490 --> 00:11:02,659
美国不仅是人工智能的生产国

353
00:11:02,659 --> 00:11:06,259
而且我们能源相对自给自足

354
00:11:06,259 --> 00:11:08,529
这场战争充分暴露了这一点

355
00:11:08,529 --> 00:11:10,470
消费者目前状况良好

356
00:11:10,470 --> 00:11:13,370
所以我认为前景相当乐观

357
00:11:13,370 --> 00:11:17,429
因此我同意股票相比年初

358
00:11:17,429 --> 00:11:19,990
仍有上涨空间到年底

359
00:11:19,990 --> 00:11:23,429
但今年后期我们仍需应对一些问题

360
00:11:23,429 --> 00:11:26,849
不过目前基本面健康且有盈利支撑

361
00:11:26,849 --> 00:11:27,649
我不确定

362
00:11:27,649 --> 00:11:29,408
我不清楚消费者的情况如何

363
00:11:29,408 --> 00:11:30,089
说实话

364
00:11:30,089 --> 00:11:30,249
我的意思是

365
00:11:30,249 --> 00:11:34,740
显然K型经济顶端优于底部

366
00:11:34,740 --> 00:11:37,100
在持续消费能力方面

367
00:11:37,100 --> 00:11:38,580
但你听听沃尔玛

368
00:11:38,580 --> 00:11:40,090
他们相当谨慎

369
00:11:40,090 --> 00:11:40,909
你会想

370
00:11:40,909 --> 00:11:43,289
消费者的实际状况如何

371
00:11:43,289 --> 00:11:46,549
如果油价长期居高不下

372
00:11:46,549 --> 00:11:49,210
这是否会破坏整个局面

373
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:51,759
斯科特

374
00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:52,000
是的

375
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,279
某种程度上确实如此

376
00:11:53,279 --> 00:11:54,039
这就是K型结构

377
00:11:54,039 --> 00:11:55,100
如果我必须说

378
00:11:55,100 --> 00:11:55,360
好的

379
00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,179
哪些因素在支撑和推动经济

380
00:11:58,179 --> 00:11:59,200
消费者

381
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,919
当然我们知道汽油价格上涨

382
00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:02,799
食品价格也上涨

383
00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:06,818
当然会有一些石油产品短缺

384
00:12:06,818 --> 00:12:09,239
但另一方面

385
00:12:09,239 --> 00:12:12,679
像SpaceX的IPO创造的财富

386
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:14,000
以及相关业务的开展

387
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,659
这价值数千亿美元

388
00:12:16,659 --> 00:12:17,539
众所周知

389
00:12:17,539 --> 00:12:20,340
财富效应带来的边际消费倾向

390
00:12:20,340 --> 00:12:23,578
我认为消费者下半年会改善

391
00:12:23,578 --> 00:12:24,578
但其中很多因素

392
00:12:24,578 --> 00:12:27,169
对于持有股权的人来说

393
00:12:27,769 --> 00:12:31,200
来自IPO的财富效应带动

394
00:12:31,639 --> 00:12:32,659
那么

395
00:12:32,659 --> 00:12:35,200
实际上还有私人投资者

396
00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:36,169
众所周知

397
00:12:36,169 --> 00:12:38,230
SpaceX可能估值在

398
00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:38,850
你知道的

399
00:12:38,850 --> 00:12:39,870
五千万美元

400
00:12:39,870 --> 00:12:41,049
可能筹集了

401
00:12:41,049 --> 00:12:44,220
你知道在过去十年里有数万亿

402
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:48,799
但现在它的估值将达到约一点

403
00:12:49,539 --> 00:12:52,549
因此这实际上将被货币化

404
00:12:52,549 --> 00:12:52,990
呃

405
00:12:52,990 --> 00:12:56,309
对于投资了SpaceX的基金lp来说

406
00:12:56,309 --> 00:12:57,639
所以你知道的

407
00:12:57,639 --> 00:13:00,399
数万亿美元对经济来说是相当大的刺激

408
00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:01,059
嗯

409
00:13:01,059 --> 00:13:01,620
好的

410
00:13:01,620 --> 00:13:02,139
呃

411
00:13:02,139 --> 00:13:03,240
汉普顿的房地产市场

412
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:03,929
当心

413
00:13:03,929 --> 00:13:04,710
是的

414
00:13:04,710 --> 00:13:05,590
完全不可能

415
00:13:05,590 --> 00:13:05,850
不过

416
00:13:05,850 --> 00:13:08,669
那里简直是极限挑战之城啊，对吧

417
00:13:08,669 --> 00:13:09,149
先生

418
00:13:09,149 --> 00:13:09,710
别闹了

419
00:13:09,710 --> 00:13:10,230
快点

420
00:13:10,230 --> 00:13:10,809
呃

421
00:13:10,809 --> 00:13:11,409
AI交易

422
00:13:11,409 --> 00:13:13,129
你对这个怎么看

423
00:13:13,129 --> 00:13:15,769
在英伟达之后

424
00:13:16,490 --> 00:13:20,289
呃，我是说一家营收规模的公司

425
00:13:20,289 --> 00:13:22,129
英伟达在扩张

426
00:13:22,129 --> 00:13:27,029
嗯，我觉得这表明仍然存在

427
00:13:27,029 --> 00:13:29,990
你知道产品需求依然强劲

428
00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:31,169
英伟达芯片

429
00:13:31,169 --> 00:13:34,350
然后我们知道那些开始使用

430
00:13:34,350 --> 00:13:36,568
AI实际上正在注意到

431
00:13:36,568 --> 00:13:38,769
我的生产力有了显著提升

432
00:13:38,769 --> 00:13:40,609
你知道肯·格里芬说得很好

433
00:13:40,609 --> 00:13:43,750
当他提到它正在替代大量分析师

434
00:13:43,750 --> 00:13:44,389
对我来说

435
00:13:44,389 --> 00:13:46,750
我认为不仅AI的使用者受益

436
00:13:46,750 --> 00:13:50,328
但仍然存在设备供应短缺

437
00:13:50,328 --> 00:13:53,349
但你仍在呼吁股票回调吗

438
00:13:53,349 --> 00:13:57,969
而像我们之前经历的那样有意义的情况其实并不符合

439
00:13:57,969 --> 00:14:02,389
如果你所设想可能发生的情况

440
00:14:03,250 --> 00:14:03,870
没错

441
00:14:03,870 --> 00:14:04,110
斯科特

442
00:14:04,110 --> 00:14:04,990
我觉得我们有过

443
00:14:04,990 --> 00:14:06,230
呃，像什么

444
00:14:06,230 --> 00:14:07,990
我称之为持续牛市

445
00:14:07,990 --> 00:14:10,139
还有像七倍涨幅

446
00:14:10,139 --> 00:14:10,620
还有

447
00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:12,379
当然去年在能源领域

448
00:14:12,379 --> 00:14:13,480
但在软件行业

449
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:14,539
等等

450
00:14:14,539 --> 00:14:18,039
但我认为今年晚些时候市场将面临几件事

451
00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:18,539
你知道其中一个

452
00:14:18,539 --> 00:14:21,580
当然这只是典型的中期季节性波动

453
00:14:21,580 --> 00:14:23,419
你知道其中的不确定性

454
00:14:23,419 --> 00:14:26,799
第二个是清算日即将到来

455
00:14:26,799 --> 00:14:32,769
因为石油产品库存短缺且短期内不会补充

456
00:14:33,250 --> 00:14:37,070
第三个是我们可能有后续担忧

457
00:14:37,070 --> 00:14:37,470
当这些

458
00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:38,870
随着这些IPO到来

459
00:14:38,870 --> 00:14:41,000
SpaceX、OpenAI等等

460
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:42,860
随后将有锁定期到期

461
00:14:42,860 --> 00:14:44,700
因此我认为存在供应过剩压力

462
00:14:44,700 --> 00:14:47,720
因此我认为这种动态将在今年晚些时候显现

463
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:52,240
但在此期间投资者正聚焦于AI基本面

464
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,269
你知道存在真实短缺

465
00:14:54,269 --> 00:14:57,679
而运作良好的公司正在销售稀缺产品

466
00:14:57,679 --> 00:15:00,860
股市最痛苦的情况可能是

467
00:15:00,860 --> 00:15:02,860
让我告诉你可能发生的事情

468
00:15:02,860 --> 00:15:04,080
好的

469
00:15:05,239 --> 00:15:07,418
通常在中期选举年

470
00:15:07,418 --> 00:15:11,779
春季末至夏季会出现大量弱势行情

471
00:15:11,779 --> 00:15:16,818
对然后市场通常在万圣节前后见底

472
00:15:16,818 --> 00:15:19,828
随后开始新一轮牛市

473
00:15:19,828 --> 00:15:23,009
市场最痛苦的情况可能是

474
00:15:23,009 --> 00:15:28,009
因为许多人早在三月和四月就清仓离场

475
00:15:28,009 --> 00:15:28,789
对

476
00:15:28,789 --> 00:15:30,110
最痛苦的情况是

477
00:15:30,110 --> 00:15:34,860
市场持续上涨直至秋季

478
00:15:34,860 --> 00:15:37,059
然后秋季出现下跌

479
00:15:37,059 --> 00:15:37,580
嗯

480
00:15:37,580 --> 00:15:40,980
或许十月、十一月、十二月非常动荡

481
00:15:40,980 --> 00:15:44,039
市场可能出现回调或类似情况

482
00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:48,299
但我们整个夏季强势拉升了市场

483
00:15:48,299 --> 00:15:49,600
对一路走高

484
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:50,840
直到十月

485
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,019
这将非常痛苦

486
00:15:53,019 --> 00:15:54,159
真糟糕

487
00:15:54,159 --> 00:15:56,929
对许多人来说都很痛苦

488
00:15:56,929 --> 00:16:00,250
因为许多人已转向现金持有

489
00:16:00,250 --> 00:16:02,529
看到市场持续上涨

490
00:16:02,529 --> 00:16:04,620
他们可能会说

491
00:16:04,620 --> 00:16:05,840
我得赶紧入场

492
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,779
接下来

493
00:16:07,779 --> 00:16:08,870
他们入场后

494
00:16:08,870 --> 00:16:09,250
他们

495
00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:10,610
再也承受不了亏损

496
00:16:10,610 --> 00:16:11,830
在场外观望

497
00:16:11,830 --> 00:16:14,720
看着市场每日上涨1%

498
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,000
日复一日

499
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,860
最终他们决定入场

500
00:16:17,860 --> 00:16:19,440
比如九月或十月

501
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,839
然后市场会出现调整

502
00:16:21,839 --> 00:16:22,639
你在开玩笑吧

503
00:16:22,639 --> 00:16:22,879
是我

504
00:16:22,879 --> 00:16:23,119
比如

505
00:16:23,119 --> 00:16:24,178
我刚入场

506
00:16:24,178 --> 00:16:24,899
嗯

507
00:16:24,899 --> 00:16:25,999
这又再次

508
00:16:25,999 --> 00:16:26,529
为什么

509
00:16:26,529 --> 00:16:27,009
啊

510
00:16:27,009 --> 00:16:28,129
我不知道自己怎么落后了

511
00:16:28,129 --> 00:16:28,850
这又再次

512
00:16:28,850 --> 00:16:29,490
你刚才说

513
00:16:29,490 --> 00:16:30,649
专注长期

514
00:16:30,649 --> 00:16:31,789
不要玩这些游戏

515
00:16:31,789 --> 00:16:32,769
退出市场

516
00:16:32,769 --> 00:16:33,529
重返市场

517
00:16:33,529 --> 00:16:34,899
离开市场

518
00:16:34,899 --> 00:16:36,139
我们不需要做这些

519
00:16:36,139 --> 00:16:37,259
我们不需要做这些

520
00:16:37,259 --> 00:16:38,679
这纯粹是傻瓜游戏

521
00:16:38,679 --> 00:16:40,559
嗯 铁矿石

522
00:16:40,559 --> 00:16:42,779
我确定自己听对了吗

523
00:16:42,779 --> 00:16:46,539
你在呼吁七魔咒板块的持续熊市

524
00:16:46,539 --> 00:16:49,299
因为这是你想看到的吗

525
00:16:49,299 --> 00:16:49,779
你

526
00:16:49,779 --> 00:16:52,440
寻找这些股票何时走弱

527
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:57,659
今年某个时候会大幅走弱 是不是这样

528
00:16:57,870 --> 00:16:58,909
为了澄清

529
00:16:58,909 --> 00:17:03,259
我觉得七魔咒和软件股已经经历过熊市了

530
00:17:03,259 --> 00:17:07,519
我认为今年晚些时候其他股票会面临熊市

531
00:17:07,519 --> 00:17:08,289
是的

532
00:17:08,289 --> 00:17:11,890
不过我认为七魔咒和软件股会幸免

533
00:17:11,890 --> 00:17:16,338
那些估值过高的

534
00:17:16,338 --> 00:17:17,719
或受

535
00:17:17,719 --> 00:17:21,450
今年后期大量新股供应的事实

536
00:17:21,450 --> 00:17:24,730
或受石油产品短缺影响的公司

537
00:17:24,730 --> 00:17:28,449
我认为今年后期会有下行压力

538
00:17:28,449 --> 00:17:32,779
你在说半导体股票吗

539
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:34,400
是的

540
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,619
半导体可能形成泡沫

541
00:17:36,619 --> 00:17:37,480
在我看来

542
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:38,779
它们还不像泡沫

543
00:17:38,779 --> 00:17:39,039
你知道的

544
00:17:39,039 --> 00:17:41,200
当英伟达市盈率十九倍时

545
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,900
我认为风险收益比仍合理

546
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:44,380
嗯

547
00:17:44,380 --> 00:17:49,319
但该生态系统的某些部分已变得昂贵

548
00:17:50,279 --> 00:17:51,039
这很合理

549
00:17:51,039 --> 00:17:52,200
完全合理

550
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:52,720
好的

551
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:53,720
接下来这个

552
00:17:58,309 --> 00:18:00,250
让我们全力以赴

553
00:18:00,250 --> 00:18:01,349
永远正确

554
00:18:01,349 --> 00:18:02,420
你是怎么处理的

555
00:18:02,420 --> 00:18:04,339
听着，我意思是但说到你的观点

556
00:18:04,339 --> 00:18:07,500
我认为这是在市场中前瞻布局

557
00:18:07,500 --> 00:18:09,619
比如像IBM或量子计算

558
00:18:09,619 --> 00:18:11,039
我们之前讨论过这一点

559
00:18:11,039 --> 00:18:11,380
好的

560
00:18:11,380 --> 00:18:12,160
你刚才在说什么

561
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:12,839
我在委婉表达

562
00:18:12,839 --> 00:18:14,609
但我也在严肃说明

563
00:18:14,609 --> 00:18:17,150
你对IBM的看法是什么

564
00:18:17,150 --> 00:18:18,849
别人可能没注意到的

565
00:18:18,849 --> 00:18:21,319
因为我们从未谈论过量子

566
00:18:21,319 --> 00:18:24,240
我认为这也是CEO Arvin的表现

567
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:28,400
我认为他远未被充分认可

568
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:29,079
在投资者眼中

569
00:18:29,079 --> 00:18:30,750
在能力方面

570
00:18:30,750 --> 00:18:33,150
和Nella、Jensen等人无异

571
00:18:33,150 --> 00:18:35,269
预见技术发展方向

572
00:18:35,269 --> 00:18:36,909
押注量子计算

573
00:18:36,909 --> 00:18:38,249
押注人工智能

574
00:18:38,249 --> 00:18:40,848
我真的认为这是场变革

575
00:18:40,848 --> 00:18:42,628
发生在IBM阿蒙克园区

576
00:18:42,628 --> 00:18:44,349
当我们审视这条新闻时

577
00:18:44,349 --> 00:18:45,470
这并非终点

578
00:18:45,470 --> 00:18:46,630
就像英特尔

579
00:18:46,630 --> 00:18:46,849
没错

580
00:18:46,849 --> 00:18:49,349
这只是转型的开始

581
00:18:49,349 --> 00:18:52,849
我认为IBM仍有巨大潜力

582
00:18:52,849 --> 00:18:55,420
我们都聚焦AI竞赛

583
00:18:55,420 --> 00:18:58,660
但我没精力关注量子竞赛

584
00:18:58,660 --> 00:19:00,140
量子竞赛同样重要

585
00:19:00,140 --> 00:19:01,559
与AI竞赛相同

586
00:19:01,559 --> 00:19:03,319
是否超越AI竞赛

587
00:19:03,319 --> 00:19:04,599
因为上期嘉宾

588
00:19:04,599 --> 00:19:08,029
当我问D-Wave CEO量子计算的作用时

589
00:19:08,029 --> 00:19:08,569
例如

590
00:19:08,569 --> 00:19:10,650
帮助发现和测试新材料

591
00:19:10,650 --> 00:19:13,970
听起来像是我之前要研究的领域

592
00:19:13,970 --> 00:19:17,519
量子是否会蚕食AI市场

593
00:19:17,519 --> 00:19:19,500
如何定位其市场

594
00:19:19,500 --> 00:19:19,619
是的

595
00:19:19,619 --> 00:19:20,700
那次采访很棒

596
00:19:20,700 --> 00:19:21,859
我认为核心在于

597
00:19:21,859 --> 00:19:22,420
它的实际作用

598
00:19:22,420 --> 00:19:23,759
它真正实现了倍增

599
00:19:23,759 --> 00:19:27,440
因为我看待人工智能革命，这里的机会

600
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:29,859
未来三到四年时间

601
00:19:29,859 --> 00:19:33,990
我们仅完成了量子计算的15-20%

602
00:19:33,990 --> 00:19:36,150
我使用了人工智能的衍生策略

603
00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:38,250
当你观察政府层面的变化

604
00:19:38,250 --> 00:19:40,000
我们需要人工智能用于量子领域吗

605
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,619
还是需要量子技术推动人工智能

606
00:19:42,619 --> 00:19:45,240
我认为量子最终将成为下一阶段

607
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:46,990
将推动人工智能的发展

608
00:19:46,990 --> 00:19:49,329
这体现了我们的观点

609
00:19:49,329 --> 00:19:50,650
无论是从能源角度

610
00:19:50,650 --> 00:19:52,630
还是基础设施和量子领域

611
00:19:52,630 --> 00:19:55,200
美中之间发生了这场军备竞赛

612
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,920
需要从白宫层面观察

613
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,279
他们将继续犯错

614
00:20:00,279 --> 00:20:01,960
与英特尔不同

615
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,480
他们在原材料方面有所布局

616
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,539
量子将成为明日之星

617
00:20:05,539 --> 00:20:10,279
我认为IBM在此领域占据优势

618
00:20:10,279 --> 00:20:13,970
但接续Kelly的观点，我们暂不讨论能源

619
00:20:13,970 --> 00:20:14,890
如果量子技术成功

620
00:20:14,890 --> 00:20:17,089
能源需求将发生根本性变化

621
00:20:17,089 --> 00:20:17,650
我们暂存此话题

622
00:20:17,650 --> 00:20:18,849
留待他日详谈

623
00:20:18,849 --> 00:20:21,410
当前量子领域进展如何

624
00:20:21,410 --> 00:20:23,029
是否仍属幻想阶段

625
00:20:23,029 --> 00:20:24,369
计算机是否已运行

626
00:20:24,369 --> 00:20:24,849
现状如何

627
00:20:24,849 --> 00:20:25,390
当前状况如何

628
00:20:25,390 --> 00:20:26,009
关注您

629
00:20:26,009 --> 00:20:27,150
当前形势

630
00:20:27,150 --> 00:20:28,269
常有人问

631
00:20:28,269 --> 00:20:28,670
现在处于第几局

632
00:20:28,670 --> 00:20:29,750
我们确信如此

633
00:20:29,750 --> 00:20:30,750
若按局数计算

634
00:20:30,750 --> 00:20:33,619
我们可能还在准备区热身

635
00:20:33,619 --> 00:20:35,019
即将进入首局

636
00:20:35,019 --> 00:20:35,240
没错

637
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:35,720
换句话说

638
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:36,599
目前局势

639
00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:37,799
比赛尚未开始

640
00:20:37,799 --> 00:20:38,200
医疗领域领先

641
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,680
若观察量子领域的诸多项目

642
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,859
已取得显著突破

643
00:20:42,859 --> 00:20:45,769
以爱荷华Q、D-Wave、Rigetti为例

644
00:20:45,769 --> 00:20:46,490
他们正在开展的工作

645
00:20:46,490 --> 00:20:48,549
展现惊人技术

646
00:20:48,549 --> 00:20:49,029
逐步推进

647
00:20:49,029 --> 00:20:50,720
将持续完善这一布局

648
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,240
但如果有效的话

649
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,289
你确定这一切都会成功吗

650
00:20:54,289 --> 00:20:56,029
我觉得就像

651
00:20:56,029 --> 00:20:57,690
路上会不会有坎坷

652
00:20:57,690 --> 00:20:58,109
是的

653
00:20:58,109 --> 00:20:59,750
但我相信在未来几年

654
00:20:59,750 --> 00:21:02,559
这是一项核心技术

655
00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:05,900
在我看来这也契合第四次工业革命

656
00:21:05,900 --> 00:21:09,549
因为它不仅仅是i jensen之父

657
00:21:09,549 --> 00:21:12,890
还需要持续关注基础设施

658
00:21:12,890 --> 00:21:13,630
软件方面

659
00:21:13,630 --> 00:21:15,559
量子和能源领域

660
00:21:15,559 --> 00:21:16,960
我认为我们的观点是

661
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,059
这就是我们达到三万亿美元规模的方式

662
00:21:19,059 --> 00:21:21,019
可能还有其他衍生品

663
00:21:21,019 --> 00:21:21,359
请

664
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:22,759
我上涨了11%

665
00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:24,740
这些股票今天涨了20%到30%

666
00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:26,619
不过不要跑题

667
00:21:26,619 --> 00:21:32,490
但布赖恩 能源投资者应该为此感到兴奋还是担忧

668
00:21:32,490 --> 00:21:33,109
担忧

669
00:21:33,109 --> 00:21:34,349
所以是量子

670
00:21:34,349 --> 00:21:34,670
你会

671
00:21:34,670 --> 00:21:36,509
这个想法是丹格里普

672
00:21:36,509 --> 00:21:37,089
如果我错了

673
00:21:37,089 --> 00:21:41,190
将用更少的电力实现更强的计算效果

674
00:21:41,190 --> 00:21:42,210
所以计算能力

675
00:21:42,210 --> 00:21:43,289
全部算力

676
00:21:43,289 --> 00:21:44,450
用于供电的能源

677
00:21:44,450 --> 00:21:46,699
所有数据中心的能耗将下降

678
00:21:46,699 --> 00:21:47,398
因为这些

679
00:21:47,398 --> 00:21:48,298
所以啊

680
00:21:48,298 --> 00:21:50,869
有时人们问我关于量子股票的事

681
00:21:50,869 --> 00:21:52,390
我的观点是

682
00:21:52,390 --> 00:21:57,480
从技术发展来看这些股票还太早

683
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,039
从投资角度

684
00:21:59,039 --> 00:22:00,299
交易角度

685
00:22:00,299 --> 00:22:02,680
如果它们在运行

686
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:03,359
它们会运行

687
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:04,039
你知道我的意思吧

688
00:22:04,039 --> 00:22:05,440
如果涨了20%

689
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:06,519
一天涨10%

690
00:22:06,519 --> 00:22:07,819
这就是当前的投资策略

691
00:22:07,819 --> 00:22:09,519
那你该怎么办

692
00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:09,920
你知道的

693
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,099
不要逆势而为

694
00:22:11,099 --> 00:22:12,059
嗯

695
00:22:12,059 --> 00:22:13,819
这就是现状

696
00:22:13,819 --> 00:22:16,039
但从投资角度

697
00:22:16,039 --> 00:22:17,460
现在还不是时候

698
00:22:17,460 --> 00:22:18,460
还没到时间对吧

699
00:22:18,460 --> 00:22:19,990
从交易角度来看

700
00:22:19,990 --> 00:22:21,269
你知道就像

701
00:22:21,269 --> 00:22:22,190
如果这就是策略

702
00:22:22,190 --> 00:22:23,710
而这正是现在人们想买入的东西

703
00:22:23,710 --> 00:22:25,130
就像计算机行业的布局

704
00:22:25,130 --> 00:22:26,380
如果它们能成功

705
00:22:26,380 --> 00:22:28,299
我们将用更少资源创造更多价值

706
00:22:28,299 --> 00:22:29,279
这个说法公平吗

707
00:22:29,279 --> 00:22:30,160
这个说法很公平

708
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,619
我从未接受过凯莉·埃文斯的采访

709
00:22:31,619 --> 00:22:32,660
当然我有点紧张

710
00:22:32,660 --> 00:22:33,400
这很公平

711
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,740
我有点紧张，再加上这个耀眼的头衔

712
00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:38,039
只是因为我配得上你的裤子

713
00:22:38,039 --> 00:22:39,480
这就是你喜欢领带的唯一原因

714
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:40,640
但有一点我必须强调

715
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:41,400
但这是我们的

716
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,630
我们认为目前

717
00:22:43,630 --> 00:22:45,089
电力基础设施

718
00:22:45,089 --> 00:22:48,470
本质上将是一个超级周期

719
00:22:48,470 --> 00:22:50,130
在基础设施领域正在发生

720
00:22:50,130 --> 00:22:51,410
那燃气发电

721
00:22:51,410 --> 00:22:54,319
因为AI在数据中心需要大量燃料

722
00:22:54,319 --> 00:22:56,359
所以量子计算在另一端

723
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,240
但现阶段它将

724
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:58,579
我说啊

725
00:22:58,579 --> 00:23:02,240
这真是能源基建的黄金时代

726
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,940
由AI驱动的

727
00:23:03,940 --> 00:23:07,019
拥有大量计算资源和数据中心的企业

728
00:23:07,019 --> 00:23:08,880
他们无需担忧能源问题

729
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,940
当看到量子计算企业的崛起时

730
00:23:10,940 --> 00:23:14,680
因为目前不到4%的公司已布局

731
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:15,400
AI发展路径

732
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,000
数据中心仍在建设中

733
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:18,160
相比之前的情况

734
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:19,819
我不是要过度强调这一点

735
00:23:19,819 --> 00:23:24,079
虽然你确实想快速问一下关于英伟达和昨晚的讨论

736
00:23:24,079 --> 00:23:26,359
我们是否达标进入下一阶段

737
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,980
或许用这种方式在

738
00:23:28,980 --> 00:23:29,359
是的

739
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,200
当AI之父发言时

740
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:32,859
所有人都在倾听

741
00:23:32,859 --> 00:23:36,940
我认为杰森提到的需求正在加速

742
00:23:36,940 --> 00:23:38,779
这还不包括中国

743
00:23:38,779 --> 00:23:40,180
甚至不包括实体

744
00:23:40,180 --> 00:23:42,029
AI的发展趋势

745
00:23:42,029 --> 00:23:44,599
我们曾提到英伟达市值或达6万亿美元

746
00:23:44,599 --> 00:23:47,500
最终可能达到7万亿美元

747
00:23:47,500 --> 00:23:49,440
这对云服务商也是利好

748
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,450
这对整个科技行业都是利好

749
00:23:52,450 --> 00:23:54,369
就目前的发展方向而言

750
00:23:54,369 --> 00:23:57,829
这也是为什么我认为空头仍在冬眠模式中

751
00:23:57,829 --> 00:23:59,670
这将推动它们进一步深入

752
00:23:59,670 --> 00:24:01,869
根据我们从英伟达听到的消息

753
00:24:02,150 --> 00:24:04,009
空头仍处于冬眠模式

754
00:24:04,009 --> 00:24:04,930
哦是的

755
00:24:04,930 --> 00:24:05,829
它们又变得有趣了

756
00:24:05,829 --> 00:24:08,579
但你知道下一个是有点不错的

757
00:24:08,579 --> 00:24:12,759
微芯感谢大家收看彭博电视和电台节目

758
00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:15,148
我们位于弗吉尼亚州马纳萨斯

759
00:24:15,148 --> 00:24:20,420
为在美国启动首个Alpha DRAM制造

760
00:24:20,420 --> 00:24:24,880
用于最先进且广泛使用的存储芯片

761
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:25,359
我知道

762
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,299
美光致力于本土生产

763
00:24:27,299 --> 00:24:30,430
其DDR存储制造的40%

764
00:24:30,430 --> 00:24:30,910
嗯

765
00:24:30,910 --> 00:24:32,630
能否给我们一些见解

766
00:24:32,630 --> 00:24:35,440
今天如何帮助实现这一目标

767
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:36,279
首先

768
00:24:36,279 --> 00:24:38,779
泰勒非常感谢邀请我参加节目

769
00:24:38,779 --> 00:24:40,480
就今天的意义而言

770
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:41,440
这真正意味着

771
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:42,220
正如你所指出的

772
00:24:42,220 --> 00:24:49,880
生产最先进DDR4内存采用Alpha技术

773
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,819
这对汽车工业至关重要

774
00:24:53,819 --> 00:24:56,049
航空航天国防

775
00:24:56,049 --> 00:24:58,210
工业网络

776
00:24:58,210 --> 00:25:01,250
这些是推动美国的关键产业

777
00:25:01,250 --> 00:25:07,869
我们将这项技术从亚洲引入本土制造

778
00:25:07,869 --> 00:25:12,169
这将帮助我们在该厂四倍产能

779
00:25:12,169 --> 00:25:15,308
在马纳萨斯生产DDR存储器

780
00:25:15,308 --> 00:25:19,250
这对关键领域的客户至关重要

781
00:25:19,250 --> 00:25:26,440
内存如今对所有电子系统行业至关重要

782
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:27,740
美光当然

783
00:25:27,740 --> 00:25:30,319
当然在爱达荷州博伊西投资

784
00:25:30,319 --> 00:25:32,460
建设领先工厂

785
00:25:32,460 --> 00:25:36,839
用于智能手机的尖端存储

786
00:25:36,839 --> 00:25:38,950
电脑服务器

787
00:25:38,950 --> 00:25:45,289
博伊西的尖端存储将于明年中旬首波投产

788
00:25:45,289 --> 00:25:47,069
之后逐步扩产

789
00:25:47,069 --> 00:25:49,269
博伊西将新建第二座工厂

790
00:25:49,269 --> 00:25:51,579
随后启动

791
00:25:51,579 --> 00:25:55,430
2028年底产出首批晶圆

792
00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:59,910
并在纽约锡拉丘兹规划生产

793
00:25:59,910 --> 00:26:04,619
逐步建设四座工厂集群

794
00:26:04,619 --> 00:26:10,219
可见美光在美投资2000亿美元

795
00:26:10,219 --> 00:26:11,338
在美国

796
00:26:11,338 --> 00:26:17,429
将这些长周期生产管理在马纳萨斯

797
00:26:17,429 --> 00:26:22,209
与博伊西和纽约生产协同

798
00:26:22,209 --> 00:26:28,059
这将使美光在未来约十年内的总产量大幅提升

799
00:26:28,059 --> 00:26:33,240
当我们逐步将所有多个晶圆厂产能提升至40%

800
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:34,640
相比之下

801
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,119
目前占比约为10%

802
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,740
而这全部10%都来自这个基地

803
00:26:40,740 --> 00:26:42,660
就在马纳萨斯的美光工厂

804
00:26:42,660 --> 00:26:45,369
这将带来巨额投资

805
00:26:45,369 --> 00:26:48,750
在长生命周期技术节点上进行大规模投资

806
00:26:48,750 --> 00:26:55,579
同时投资最前沿技术节点以满足激增的市场需求

807
00:26:55,579 --> 00:26:56,900
由人工智能驱动

808
00:26:56,900 --> 00:27:01,079
美光将进行半导体制造领域的重大投资

809
00:27:01,079 --> 00:27:06,429
在此过程中将在美国创造九万个新岗位

810
00:27:06,429 --> 00:27:09,709
这对美光来说真是激动人心的时刻

811
00:27:09,709 --> 00:27:11,480
超级激动人心的时刻

812
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,400
但也充满挑战

813
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,648
这就是美光要强调的

814
00:27:16,648 --> 00:27:19,229
我们将在未来几年陆续启动所有设施

815
00:27:19,229 --> 00:27:22,969
没错，从这个角度看

816
00:27:22,969 --> 00:27:24,249
你们将能赚取更多利润

817
00:27:24,249 --> 00:27:24,779
没错

818
00:27:24,779 --> 00:27:30,489
但可怕之处在于当他们开始启动新设施时

819
00:27:30,489 --> 00:27:32,169
就在这个时候

820
00:27:32,169 --> 00:27:36,059
若需求突然放缓可能导致价格暴跌

821
00:27:36,059 --> 00:27:38,660
利润率可能彻底崩溃

822
00:27:38,660 --> 00:27:40,619
净利润也会崩溃

823
00:27:40,619 --> 00:27:43,180
每股收益同时暴跌

824
00:27:43,180 --> 00:27:44,680
这是一个特殊时期

825
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,940
因为市场需求如此旺盛令人振奋

826
00:27:47,940 --> 00:27:51,380
接下来几年我们将启动所有新设施

827
00:27:51,380 --> 00:27:54,839
这正是令人兴奋的时刻

828
00:27:54,839 --> 00:27:56,680
但其他存储芯片公司

829
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:57,200
猜猜他们在做什么

830
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:57,500
哦

831
00:27:57,500 --> 00:27:58,960
我们不会增加产量

832
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,190
当然他们也在建设设施

833
00:28:01,190 --> 00:28:02,250
所以

834
00:28:02,250 --> 00:28:02,470
哦

835
00:28:02,470 --> 00:28:03,490
这太令人兴奋了

836
00:28:03,490 --> 00:28:06,009
我们将在未来几年启动所有设施

837
00:28:06,009 --> 00:28:08,630
从而大幅提升产能

838
00:28:08,630 --> 00:28:14,009
但若遇到需求全面下滑

839
00:28:14,009 --> 00:28:14,509
你知道的

840
00:28:14,509 --> 00:28:18,898
比如英伟达和AMD的需求异常强劲

841
00:28:18,898 --> 00:28:19,719
未来两年

842
00:28:19,719 --> 00:28:20,739
接下来三年

843
00:28:20,739 --> 00:28:22,179
但四年后

844
00:28:22,179 --> 00:28:23,479
这将是重大需求下滑

845
00:28:23,479 --> 00:28:24,979
同时

846
00:28:24,979 --> 00:28:28,700
当这些设施刚刚投产时

847
00:28:28,700 --> 00:28:30,380
这才是真正可怕的部分

848
00:28:30,380 --> 00:28:32,279
这就是每个人需要理解的重要部分

849
00:28:32,279 --> 00:28:33,720
当你看像微芯这样的股票

850
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:34,900
它有着一段历史

851
00:28:34,900 --> 00:28:35,380
你知道的

852
00:28:35,380 --> 00:28:36,909
经历过非常激动人心的时期

853
00:28:36,909 --> 00:28:39,969
当对内存的需求迅速扩张时

854
00:28:39,969 --> 00:28:41,670
利润率大幅提升

855
00:28:41,670 --> 00:28:43,230
他们大幅增加生产

856
00:28:43,230 --> 00:28:44,849
然后迎来下一轮下行周期

857
00:28:44,849 --> 00:28:46,250
现在这个过程非常痛苦

858
00:28:46,250 --> 00:28:49,398
有人认为未来不会再有下行周期

859
00:28:49,398 --> 00:28:50,979
是的

860
00:28:50,979 --> 00:28:52,338
将到达需求的临界点

861
00:28:52,338 --> 00:28:55,519
这项投资如何帮助应对

862
00:28:55,519 --> 00:28:56,400
突破

863
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,259
这无法辩论是否会有下一轮下行周期

864
00:28:59,259 --> 00:29:00,980
必将迎来下一次巨大下行周期

865
00:29:00,980 --> 00:29:01,960
这将会非常痛苦

866
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,230
极其痛苦

867
00:29:03,230 --> 00:29:05,430
唯一能争论的是何时发生

868
00:29:05,430 --> 00:29:06,150
你可以争论

869
00:29:06,150 --> 00:29:07,329
是否在两年后

870
00:29:07,329 --> 00:29:08,289
四年后

871
00:29:08,289 --> 00:29:09,109
六年后

872
00:29:09,109 --> 00:29:10,150
你可以这样争论

873
00:29:10,150 --> 00:29:12,690
但无法否认下一轮下行周期的到来

874
00:29:12,690 --> 00:29:13,230
没错

875
00:29:13,230 --> 00:29:14,410
我们将迎来需求

876
00:29:14,410 --> 00:29:19,019
我想知道内存芯片短缺还会持续多久

877
00:29:19,019 --> 00:29:20,660
我们何时能迎来缓解

878
00:29:20,660 --> 00:29:24,179
当然内存需求确实激增

879
00:29:24,179 --> 00:29:29,558
这源于内存的重要性和价值及其能力

880
00:29:29,558 --> 00:29:34,019
这对所有先进系统都是必需的

881
00:29:34,019 --> 00:29:35,378
没错

882
00:29:35,378 --> 00:29:36,278
确实存在短缺

883
00:29:36,278 --> 00:29:40,519
但美光正通过这些项目努力扩大供应

884
00:29:40,519 --> 00:29:42,700
在这里美国

885
00:29:42,700 --> 00:29:44,220
在这里马纳萨斯

886
00:29:44,220 --> 00:29:44,619
弗吉尼亚州

887
00:29:44,619 --> 00:29:46,720
博伊西和纽约

888
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:52,579
我们看到短缺将持续远超2026年的时间框架

889
00:29:52,579 --> 00:30:00,039
但重要的是美光正与客户紧密合作着眼长期

890
00:30:00,039 --> 00:30:07,130
与客户签订供应协议以确保供应可预测性

891
00:30:07,130 --> 00:30:07,809
当然

892
00:30:07,809 --> 00:30:13,650
美光对投入的投资充满信心

893
00:30:13,650 --> 00:30:15,180
着眼于长远

894
00:30:15,180 --> 00:30:18,019
历史上内存行业具有周期性

895
00:30:18,019 --> 00:30:20,079
对了周期性繁荣周期性低迷

896
00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:23,059
在美国投入2000亿美元的投资

897
00:30:23,059 --> 00:30:24,359
这释放出明确信号

898
00:30:24,359 --> 00:30:29,630
或许更多是对这种高需求将持续存在的信心

899
00:30:29,630 --> 00:30:34,670
或者是否存在行业产能过剩的担忧

900
00:30:34,670 --> 00:30:35,309
你知道的

901
00:30:35,309 --> 00:30:41,038
当然我们正在建造这些需要极长交付周期的项目

902
00:30:41,038 --> 00:30:44,919
正如我们在博伊西和纽约的进展所示

903
00:30:44,919 --> 00:30:47,888
仅建设就需要数年时间

904
00:30:47,888 --> 00:30:49,548
建造厂房结构

905
00:30:49,548 --> 00:30:57,980
如何装备这个厂房很大程度上取决于我们当时对需求的最新评估

906
00:30:57,980 --> 00:31:01,579
关键是要做好应对市场变化的准备

907
00:31:01,579 --> 00:31:04,740
需求与内存已成为核心驱动力

908
00:31:04,740 --> 00:31:08,410
如今已成为客户的战略资产

909
00:31:08,410 --> 00:31:15,559
也是人工智能在消费及数据中心行业的战略资产

910
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:17,269
因为没有内存

911
00:31:17,269 --> 00:31:23,990
就无法实现对未来路线图至关重要的智能功能

912
00:31:23,990 --> 00:31:26,880
这就是客户所需的内存至关重要

913
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:32,359
当然我们的投资始终会保持纪律性

914
00:31:32,359 --> 00:31:35,460
我们能够满足关键客户的需求

915
00:31:35,460 --> 00:31:40,278
通常在15%到三分之二之间

916
00:31:40,278 --> 00:31:42,509
我们必须

917
00:31:42,509 --> 00:31:50,150
以纪律性提升供应并持续推动增长需求

918
00:31:50,150 --> 00:31:50,630
然后

919
00:31:50,630 --> 00:31:51,589
这就是

920
00:31:51,589 --> 00:31:52,450
你知道的

921
00:31:52,450 --> 00:31:54,909
满足未来的必要需求

922
00:31:54,909 --> 00:31:58,279
当前供应链最大的瓶颈在哪里

923
00:31:58,279 --> 00:32:00,420
我想知道劳动力如何融入这一图景

924
00:32:00,420 --> 00:32:05,000
因为今天许多公告都涉及在美国创造就业

925
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,630
正如我之前提到的

926
00:32:06,630 --> 00:32:07,089
我的意思是

927
00:32:07,089 --> 00:32:09,750
我们的投资将创造九万个新岗位

928
00:32:09,750 --> 00:32:11,519
这些是高薪岗位

929
00:32:11,519 --> 00:32:12,160
当然

930
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:17,480
镁光非常注重与社区合作

931
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,130
与高校和大学

932
00:32:21,130 --> 00:32:23,150
与本地系统

933
00:32:23,150 --> 00:32:26,980
以支持高级学徒计划

934
00:32:26,980 --> 00:32:33,130
我们专注于为 workforce 培训和开发投资

935
00:32:33,130 --> 00:32:35,089
全美范围内

936
00:32:35,089 --> 00:32:39,219
特别是在镁光计划建设晶圆厂的地区

937
00:32:39,219 --> 00:32:43,259
这也是重要的战略优先事项

938
00:32:43,259 --> 00:32:46,359
在提升供应时的关键瓶颈

939
00:32:46,359 --> 00:32:52,400
当然建设本身就是长期过程

940
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,559
随着建设推进

941
00:32:54,559 --> 00:32:59,019
接下来是引入设备并验证生产线

942
00:32:59,019 --> 00:33:01,359
这也需要一定时间

943
00:33:01,359 --> 00:33:07,309
因此我们看到行业新增供应

944
00:33:07,309 --> 00:33:11,700
实际要到2028年才能显著增长

945
00:33:11,700 --> 00:33:16,619
我们爱达荷州博伊西晶圆厂明年年中将产出首批晶圆

946
00:33:16,619 --> 00:33:20,329
后续产能将在未来逐步释放

947
00:33:20,329 --> 00:33:24,670
作为唯一美国企业是否更具优势

948
00:33:24,670 --> 00:33:28,059
以这种方式与特朗普政府合作

949
00:33:28,059 --> 00:33:30,099
我想知道你能否对此进行解释

950
00:33:30,099 --> 00:33:35,460
这在三星、SK海力士等最大竞争对手面前会处于什么位置

951
00:33:35,460 --> 00:33:36,880
在市场份额方面

952
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,880
我为自己团队感到非常自豪

953
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:45,799
当然为我们是美国唯一内存制造商感到自豪

954
00:33:45,799 --> 00:33:48,940
今天对一切至关重要

955
00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:50,369
电子系统

956
00:33:50,369 --> 00:33:51,329
是的

957
00:33:51,329 --> 00:33:52,029
非常自豪

958
00:33:52,029 --> 00:33:57,589
当然我们美国客户也非常重视投资

959
00:33:57,589 --> 00:34:00,558
美国民众重视韧性

960
00:34:00,558 --> 00:34:01,999
安全供应链

961
00:34:01,999 --> 00:34:07,059
我们正在投资以支持未来增长需求

962
00:34:07,059 --> 00:34:10,079
我们对合作伙伴关系感到非常满意

963
00:34:10,079 --> 00:34:10,840
双方互动

964
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:15,278
我们非常感谢特朗普总统及其政府

965
00:34:15,278 --> 00:34:21,389
并专注于将尖端制造带回美国

966
00:34:21,389 --> 00:34:24,570
以支持各行业

967
00:34:24,570 --> 00:34:29,079
正如你们所见我们的合作非常稳固

968
00:34:29,079 --> 00:34:29,519
我说

969
00:34:31,179 --> 00:34:32,679
正如你们所知

970
00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:37,389
大使格里尔今日强烈支持我们的投资

971
00:34:37,389 --> 00:34:40,150
我们非常感谢特朗普总统的支持

972
00:34:40,150 --> 00:34:42,409
我们非常专注于

973
00:34:42,409 --> 00:34:43,369
嗯

974
00:34:43,369 --> 00:34:48,280
扩大供应以满足客户需求

975
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,960
但需稳健增长

976
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:51,880
专注于

977
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,179
当然供需关系

978
00:34:54,179 --> 00:34:59,778
当然要尽可能加快投资进度

979
00:34:59,778 --> 00:35:01,559
在剩余时间里

980
00:35:03,338 --> 00:35:04,298
霍华德·卢特尼克

981
00:35:04,298 --> 00:35:05,699
今日发表了讲话

982
00:35:05,699 --> 00:35:07,719
我认为这是关键问题

983
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:09,780
你知道当迈克

984
00:35:09,780 --> 00:35:11,260
他们处于最佳位置

985
00:35:11,260 --> 00:35:11,739
没错

986
00:35:11,739 --> 00:35:12,440
嗯

987
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:17,820
但我要提醒大家

988
00:35:17,820 --> 00:35:24,360
关于当前局势 我们是否一直低调行事

989
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,940
一直安然无恙 因为我们是唯一美国

990
00:35:26,940 --> 00:35:28,199
内存企业

991
00:35:28,199 --> 00:35:31,630
因为我们从未是市值庞大的公司

992
00:35:31,630 --> 00:35:32,278
没错

993
00:35:32,278 --> 00:35:35,898
所以总能低调行事 人们也就视而不见

994
00:35:35,898 --> 00:35:36,398
迈克继续

995
00:35:36,398 --> 00:35:36,599
是的

996
00:35:36,599 --> 00:35:37,539
他们赚了很多钱

997
00:35:37,539 --> 00:35:39,278
但就像一家小公司一样

998
00:35:39,278 --> 00:35:39,639
你知道的

999
00:35:39,639 --> 00:35:40,670
谁在乎呢

1000
00:35:41,309 --> 00:35:42,550
那些日子都过去了

1001
00:35:42,550 --> 00:35:46,380
美光科技逼近万亿市值

1002
00:35:46,380 --> 00:35:47,980
有人可能会争论

1003
00:35:47,980 --> 00:35:50,619
它正朝着两万亿市值迈进对吧

1004
00:35:50,619 --> 00:35:52,980
你现在已不再隐形

1005
00:35:52,980 --> 00:35:55,039
你现在已是大公司了

1006
00:35:55,039 --> 00:35:56,639
你已是全球最大企业之一

1007
00:35:56,639 --> 00:36:01,449
所以有很大概率

1008
00:36:01,449 --> 00:36:02,590
我不会感到意外

1009
00:36:02,590 --> 00:36:07,320
大科技公司可能会进入这个领域

1010
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,300
你可能会说

1011
00:36:08,300 --> 00:36:08,760
他们做不到

1012
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,519
当然能做到

1013
00:36:10,989 --> 00:36:11,969
你以为他们做不到

1014
00:36:11,969 --> 00:36:13,309
如果他们想的话

1015
00:36:13,309 --> 00:36:15,150
如果亚马逊真想进军内存领域

1016
00:36:15,150 --> 00:36:16,530
亚马逊完全可以做到

1017
00:36:16,530 --> 00:36:17,750
他们为什么做不到

1018
00:36:17,750 --> 00:36:19,139
当然能做到

1019
00:36:19,139 --> 00:36:20,500
如果有人想竞争

1020
00:36:20,500 --> 00:36:22,159
比如和英伟达

1021
00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:23,099
像AMD这样的公司

1022
00:36:23,099 --> 00:36:24,940
你以为无法与内存芯片竞争

1023
00:36:24,940 --> 00:36:30,898
所以我的思路是当看到美光这样的公司

1024
00:36:30,898 --> 00:36:32,818
市值暴涨

1025
00:36:32,818 --> 00:36:36,498
所有大科技公司都会关注并思考

1026
00:36:36,498 --> 00:36:38,679
或许我们应该进入内存业务

1027
00:36:38,679 --> 00:36:42,849
认为他们做不到是大错特错

1028
00:36:42,849 --> 00:36:44,349
这是重大错误

1029
00:36:44,349 --> 00:36:45,789
他们一定会进入任何业务

1030
00:36:45,789 --> 00:36:47,110
这些大科技公司

1031
00:36:47,110 --> 00:36:51,159
如果看到有机会进入并盈利

1032
00:36:51,159 --> 00:36:55,179
甚至可能压低这些芯片价格

1033
00:36:55,179 --> 00:37:00,829
因为现在内存价格飙升

1034
00:37:00,829 --> 00:37:01,530
你知道的

1035
00:37:01,530 --> 00:37:01,889
所有东西

1036
00:37:01,889 --> 00:37:02,510
你想要使用的

1037
00:37:02,510 --> 00:37:03,010
CPU

1038
00:37:03,010 --> 00:37:03,489
GPU

1039
00:37:03,489 --> 00:37:04,690
等等

1040
00:37:04,940 --> 00:37:07,039
总之这会很有趣

1041
00:37:07,039 --> 00:37:08,699
但眼下

1042
00:37:08,699 --> 00:37:10,119
美光正是狂欢时刻

1043
00:37:10,119 --> 00:37:12,659
正如许多半导体股的狂欢期

1044
00:37:12,659 --> 00:37:13,199
没错

1045
00:37:13,199 --> 00:37:14,940
好了各位感谢大家一如既往的支持

1046
00:37:14,940 --> 00:37:16,480
非常感谢大家再次到来

1047
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,699
纪念日促销活动目前正在持续进行

1048
00:37:18,699 --> 00:37:20,239
如果你明天观看这个视频的话

1049
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:21,159
它已经结束了

1050
00:37:21,159 --> 00:37:22,679
但截至目前仍在进行中

1051
00:37:22,679 --> 00:37:23,960
那里会有一个置顶评论

1052
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:25,449
这是我的黄金会员专属

1053
00:37:25,449 --> 00:37:26,289
针对Patreon支持者

1054
00:37:26,289 --> 00:37:28,449
这是目前最高的Patreon会员等级

1055
00:37:28,449 --> 00:37:30,170
通常这个等级是1到4级

1056
00:37:30,170 --> 00:37:32,570
现在会将四九置顶评论

1057
00:37:32,570 --> 00:37:34,179
衷心祝福大家，祝您度过美好一天

共 6 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕