【Financial Education】5月必买4只股票！

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这一波行情真是精彩

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女士们先生们

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三三百万美元

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上月此时的公开持仓量

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而如今公开持仓量已达三点八

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五百万美元

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这波行情真是了不起，祝贺所有参与其中的每一个人

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呃

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我们做得非常棒

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过去一个多月

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现在请大家稍作停留

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想象五年十年后你的生活会是什么样子

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如果你继续努力工作

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工作

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聪明对吧

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想象你的投资组合会达到何等规模

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想象你的净资产会增长到多少

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想象你的生活方式会变成什么样

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让我们聚焦未来五到十年

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因为接下来五到十年你能达成的成就会让你震惊

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好的

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女士们先生们

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在今天的视频中

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我们将聚焦四只我正在买入的股票

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现在2026年五月

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这四只股票就是我今天视频中要介绍的

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它们都是成长型股票

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这些股票拥有惊人的增长潜力

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每只股票当前估值都非常诱人

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所以我决定买入这些股票

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好的

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希望大家喜欢今天的视频

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只有一件事

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我只有一件事需要你们，我一整天都在准备这个视频

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一整天我只需要你们

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请点赞支持

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正如车库里的标语所说

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点击订阅按钮

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疯狂点赞

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谢谢

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每个人已经做到的都不需要我提醒

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我还没做呢

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请帮我完成这个动作

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另外

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如果你想获取所有我的精品课程

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比如成为股市大师

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百万富翁实战手册

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股票期权精通课程

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股息投资精通课程

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你想要访问千x股票网

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你想要加入我的私人Discord聊天群

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你想要获取独家每周视频

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你会看到我的操作

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我每周都在做这些

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所有优质内容

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那将是下方置顶的评论

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你可以点击填写表单

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我们会在私密群组中审核你的申请

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或许这周或下周

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好的，再次说明那将是下方置顶的评论

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这四只股票中的第一只是SOI科技SOFI

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今天这只股票价格为16美元

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关于所有这些股票

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我将给出我的买入目标价

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买入价格

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今天视频中的所有优质内容

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好的

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这绝对是一期精彩视频

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首先我要说

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好的

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我在公开账户中获利95%

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我以6.90美元买入股票

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我在公开账户持有股份

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这些股份已涨至11.74美元甚至16美元

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这仍然是我个人的绝佳买入机会

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现在谈到苏利公司

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他们的财报刚刚发布

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我给他们的利润表打了A+

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非常出色

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好的

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难以置信

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看这家公司总利息收入增长31%

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总利息支出仅增长16%

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所以净利息收入

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这是银行类指标中最优的指标之一

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这显然属于银行业范畴

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尽管他们也涉足金融科技

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有三个

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9%的增长

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同比

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贷款发放

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销售证券化及服务增长169%

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技术产品与解决方案这一板块

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该公司下降43%

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但其他数据大幅增长显然弥补了这一差距

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另一板块增长86%

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87%

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总非利息收入

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增长了4.9个百分点

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总收入净增长4.3%

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销售与市场部门存在一些问题

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同比增长4.1%

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但仍然低于收入增长水平

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所得税费用

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我在所得税费用上吃了大亏

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同比激增279%

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但尽管如此

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尽管如此，净利润同比激增135%

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Ups那边增长迅猛

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这简直太棒了

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这简直满分

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现在

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Sofi最棒的地方在于

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这是一个一站式平台

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没错，你可以用它进行银行操作

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尤其是新一代的年轻人

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可能还没注册

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像摩根大通那样频繁使用

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花旗或富国银行

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美国第一银行

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许多年轻人确实开始注册Sofi，总体来看

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大量千禧一代

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大量Z世代

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我相信Alpha世代也会成为下一波

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在人口结构上会表现强劲

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没错

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他们提供投资服务

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他们办理贷款

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当然没错

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个人贷款及其他多种贷款服务，现在还能投资

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他们也支持加密货币

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说他们是真正的一站式服务

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如果你需要所有金融相关服务

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而且他们正在不断深化业务

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有时他们会承担贷款风险

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有时会将贷款风险转售给他人

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所以他们可以承接这些风险

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基本上充当中间人收取费用

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企业业务

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他们持续吸引大量会员

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没错

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无提示品牌认知度显著提升

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但这家公司仍有很长的路要走

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达到10%

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无提示品牌认知度

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这方面仍有很长的路要走

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看看会员数量

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他们大约有五千两百名成员

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我称他们为客户

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2022年时有五千两百名成员

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去年年底

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现在他们已有1.36亿

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第一季度已增长到1.47亿

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该公司会员数量持续激增

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他们正在接近越来越多的临界点

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记住

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你是一家大银行对吧

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你是美国的大银行

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你将会拥有

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你知道有多少客户

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最终会拥有数千万客户

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大型金融机构通常拥有

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客户数量在五千万到约一亿两千万之间

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随着SoFi的快速发展

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这项业务

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你可以看到未来五到十年如何达到这个规模

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你能想象这有多惊人

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我能看到SoFi真的能达到数千万客户

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三千万、五千万

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未来五到十年拥有七千万客户

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比如

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你知道的

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这并不是第一次有人做到

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他们正在这里成功实现

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就目前情况来看

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看看这个

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看看这个

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这是收入数据

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这就是我们现在的状况

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没错

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收入趋势

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这是SoFi预计的发展路径

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非常棒

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现在

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我为你调取了数据

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大致情况是

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大银行们确实如此

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摩根大通

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收盘市值达8240亿美元

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正接近万亿市值门槛

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没错

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可能是首家达到这一里程碑的金融机构

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美国银行市值3720亿美元

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汇丰银行3090亿美元

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摩根

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斯坦利2980亿美元

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没错

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所以A正在朝着成为金融巨头的方向发展

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从长期来看没错

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他们已经达到了临界规模

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但他们还有很长的路要走，关于这一点

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想想这个沙发市值已经达到200亿美元

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这一点非常清楚

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对我来说这非常明确，他们正在成为金融巨头

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目前市值在200亿美元

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我们可能在讨论五年或十年后的公司

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市值可能达到1000亿美元

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或者数百亿美元市值

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而今天我们讨论的是200亿美元市值

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现在安东尼·诺托

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他出色地管理了这家公司

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但听我说

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他必须继续保持优秀表现

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不能让公司在这次大衰退中破产

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无论何时发生

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你知道的

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谁知道下一次大衰退何时到来

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但终有一天会发生

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他必须确保银行业务

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公司在这种环境下不会倒闭

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他必须确保不

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在商业模式上承担过多风险

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优秀银行机构的关键在于

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必须留住客户

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必须不断吸引新客户对吧

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这样才能长期为银行创造财富

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因为他们的财富会大幅增长

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也许他们开始创业

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用他们的企业银行

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与你的金融机构合作

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所以必须持续这样做

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并在衰退中不倒闭

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吸引更多会员

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留住现有会员

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在衰退中不倒闭

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银行业务可以很简单

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做好这三件事

238
00:07:40,418 --> 00:07:43,069
安东尼·诺托做得很好

239
00:07:43,069 --> 00:07:45,490
这样你就成为金融巨头

240
00:07:45,490 --> 00:07:48,750
然后我们谈到数百亿美元市值，需记住

241
00:07:48,750 --> 00:07:50,050
就沙发业务而言

242
00:07:50,050 --> 00:07:53,089
这个行业比传统业务更具资产属性

243
00:07:53,089 --> 00:07:54,230
就像银行业务

244
00:07:54,230 --> 00:07:56,149
想想美国银行

245
00:07:56,149 --> 00:07:56,589
富国银行

246
00:07:56,589 --> 00:07:57,170
花旗银行

247
00:07:57,170 --> 00:07:58,279
汇丰银行

248
00:07:58,279 --> 00:07:58,800
Jp

249
00:07:58,800 --> 00:07:59,620
摩根大通

250
00:07:59,620 --> 00:08:01,500
你得想想那些分行

251
00:08:01,500 --> 00:08:02,459
遍布各地

252
00:08:02,459 --> 00:08:03,779
那些自动取款机

253
00:08:03,779 --> 00:08:05,980
庞大的员工数量和银行职员

254
00:08:05,980 --> 00:08:08,180
你知道我意思是

255
00:08:08,180 --> 00:08:08,959
这太令人惊叹了

256
00:08:08,959 --> 00:08:09,839
没错

257
00:08:09,839 --> 00:08:10,660
柜台人员

258
00:08:10,660 --> 00:08:11,240
所有这些

259
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,259
所以他们不需要处理这些

260
00:08:14,259 --> 00:08:15,720
他们是一个科技平台

261
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,069
这正是我们所处的位置

262
00:08:18,069 --> 00:08:19,370
也是未来一年的发展方向

263
00:08:19,370 --> 00:08:23,670
他们可能最终成为更盈利的金融机构

264
00:08:23,670 --> 00:08:27,970
比历史上任何银行相关公司都更赚钱

265
00:08:27,970 --> 00:08:29,139
现在

266
00:08:29,139 --> 00:08:35,139
买入区间所以我在十五美元以下是个绝佳买入点

267
00:08:35,139 --> 00:08:38,029
顺便说一句，十美元以下就是铁定交易

268
00:08:38,029 --> 00:08:40,809
就像我六十年代买入股票时的钢铁交易

269
00:08:40,809 --> 00:08:42,710
但别指望它会回到那个水平

270
00:08:42,710 --> 00:08:43,649
但如果你以十五美元以下买入

271
00:08:43,649 --> 00:08:44,919
是个绝佳买入区间

272
00:08:44,919 --> 00:08:46,139
十五到二十美元

273
00:08:46,139 --> 00:08:47,820
这是该公司绝佳的买入区间

274
00:08:47,820 --> 00:08:48,919
所以现在正是这个价位

275
00:08:48,919 --> 00:08:49,940
现在正是

276
00:08:49,940 --> 00:08:51,000
二十到二十五美元

277
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:51,580
五美元

278
00:08:51,580 --> 00:08:52,818
仍然有潜力

279
00:08:52,818 --> 00:08:55,719
如果股价在二十五到三十美元区间

280
00:08:55,719 --> 00:08:57,339
就会变得像一个

281
00:08:57,339 --> 00:08:57,958
我区间

282
00:08:57,958 --> 00:08:58,769
嗯

283
00:08:58,769 --> 00:09:00,409
此时吸引力下降

284
00:09:00,409 --> 00:09:00,570
没错

285
00:09:00,570 --> 00:09:03,090
因为股票的风险回报因素始终存在

286
00:09:03,090 --> 00:09:03,908
是的

287
00:09:03,908 --> 00:09:07,428
超过三十美元就可能成为卖出点

288
00:09:07,428 --> 00:09:09,188
如果股价今年回升至三十美元以上

289
00:09:09,188 --> 00:09:11,808
此时只需持有

290
00:09:11,808 --> 00:09:12,460
好的

291
00:09:12,460 --> 00:09:17,360
这四只股票中的第二只是ServiceNow

292
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:18,419
拿你的第一只

293
00:09:18,419 --> 00:09:19,980
现在

294
00:09:19,980 --> 00:09:22,340
这只股票过去一年暴跌

295
00:09:22,340 --> 00:09:23,980
下跌52%

296
00:09:23,980 --> 00:09:25,259
翻转和煎饼

297
00:09:25,259 --> 00:09:26,200
天啊

298
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,309
今日这支股票价格为九十一美元

299
00:09:29,309 --> 00:09:30,289
好的现在

300
00:09:30,289 --> 00:09:31,529
关于当前服务方面

301
00:09:31,529 --> 00:09:34,139
这家公司正处于非常尴尬的发展阶段

302
00:09:34,139 --> 00:09:35,879
有很多关于人工智能的问题

303
00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:39,649
我不认为人们真正深入理解

304
00:09:39,649 --> 00:09:43,009
我认为人工智能及其与Salesforce、ServiceNow等公司的协同作用

305
00:09:43,009 --> 00:09:44,289
以及许多其他公司的情况

306
00:09:44,289 --> 00:09:45,570
他们只是从

307
00:09:45,570 --> 00:09:46,070
呃

308
00:09:46,070 --> 00:09:47,200
你知道的

309
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:48,700
什么是终端

310
00:09:48,700 --> 00:09:50,240
这些公司的长期盈利能力

311
00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:51,820
难以准确判断

312
00:09:51,820 --> 00:09:54,000
因为它关乎人工智能的潜力

313
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:55,399
我明白就像

314
00:09:55,399 --> 00:09:55,679
你知道的

315
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:57,039
我理解有很多担忧

316
00:09:57,039 --> 00:09:57,299
哦

317
00:09:57,299 --> 00:09:59,200
人工智能将颠覆这个行业和那个行业

318
00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,159
因此短期内这种担忧将持续存在

319
00:10:02,159 --> 00:10:05,539
随着这些公司持续交出亮眼数据

320
00:10:05,539 --> 00:10:07,320
恐惧将逐渐消散

321
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:08,419
但目前仍存在这种担忧

322
00:10:08,419 --> 00:10:11,419
这也是该股票过去一年下跌52%的原因

323
00:10:11,419 --> 00:10:13,049
并非因为业绩糟糕

324
00:10:13,049 --> 00:10:14,929
但他们正处于尴尬阶段

325
00:10:14,929 --> 00:10:16,129
不仅有这些疑问

326
00:10:16,129 --> 00:10:18,970
ServiceNow刚完成多笔收购

327
00:10:18,970 --> 00:10:21,669
当进行大量收购时

328
00:10:21,669 --> 00:10:23,070
会扰乱成本结构

329
00:10:23,070 --> 00:10:25,590
同时他们正在将人工智能整合到平台中

330
00:10:25,590 --> 00:10:26,250
没错

331
00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:28,220
因为他们希望

332
00:10:28,220 --> 00:10:28,659
你知道的

333
00:10:28,659 --> 00:10:29,019
他们持有

334
00:10:29,019 --> 00:10:29,919
他们托管所有数据

335
00:10:29,919 --> 00:10:32,519
但也想与所有人工智能公司合作

336
00:10:32,519 --> 00:10:33,799
因此成本略有增加

337
00:10:33,799 --> 00:10:35,240
目前正处于尴尬阶段

338
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:36,299
收入增长强劲

339
00:10:36,299 --> 00:10:37,139
同比增长22%

340
00:10:37,139 --> 00:10:39,399
但当前开支非常高

341
00:10:39,399 --> 00:10:40,899
没错，这是一段过渡期

342
00:10:40,899 --> 00:10:42,940
未来一年左右需要度过这个阶段

343
00:10:42,940 --> 00:10:46,299
之后将能展现强劲的利润增长

344
00:10:46,299 --> 00:10:48,870
但在此期间我们处于非常尴尬的阶段

345
00:10:48,870 --> 00:10:51,990
看到收入增长22%的同时

346
00:10:51,990 --> 00:10:53,769
摊薄每股收益也增长2%

347
00:10:53,769 --> 00:10:56,240
这就是目前的情况

348
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:56,519
顺便说一句

349
00:10:56,519 --> 00:10:57,539
如果你不理解这项服务

350
00:10:57,539 --> 00:10:59,320
现在在x股票网

351
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,759
这里有一个叫报告的功能

352
00:11:01,759 --> 00:11:02,828
报告明白了

353
00:11:02,828 --> 00:11:04,469
你可以输入股票代码

354
00:11:04,469 --> 00:11:06,149
系统会生成一份入门级报告

355
00:11:06,149 --> 00:11:07,028
这个报告会像

356
00:11:07,028 --> 00:11:10,068
你是个五年级学生一样用简单术语解释

357
00:11:10,068 --> 00:11:12,328
你也可以生成对冲基金级报告

358
00:11:12,328 --> 00:11:13,948
我理解很多人

359
00:11:13,948 --> 00:11:15,509
可能想知道ServiceNow是做什么的

360
00:11:15,509 --> 00:11:16,649
他们如何盈利呢

361
00:11:16,649 --> 00:11:20,279
好的，我这就为你生成入门报告

362
00:11:20,279 --> 00:11:22,100
这家公司ServiceNow做什么

363
00:11:22,100 --> 00:11:23,639
为大企业提供软件

364
00:11:23,639 --> 00:11:24,340
它的工具

365
00:11:24,340 --> 00:11:25,720
帮助员工处理任务

366
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,009
解决问题并一站式完成工作

367
00:11:28,009 --> 00:11:29,470
解决常见问题

368
00:11:29,470 --> 00:11:34,580
许多公司使用太多混乱低效的系统

369
00:11:34,580 --> 00:11:36,259
现在帮助整合这些工作

370
00:11:36,259 --> 00:11:37,409
在用户使用过程中

371
00:11:37,409 --> 00:11:38,909
企业使用ServiceNow

372
00:11:38,909 --> 00:11:42,250
因为它能节省时间减少混乱

373
00:11:42,250 --> 00:11:44,529
帮助团队跟踪请求

374
00:11:44,529 --> 00:11:48,220
更快解决问题并自动化重复工作

375
00:11:48,620 --> 00:11:50,639
客户也信任它

376
00:11:50,639 --> 00:11:54,318
因为它是被众多大企业使用的知名品牌

377
00:11:54,318 --> 00:11:56,099
公司部署后

378
00:11:56,099 --> 00:11:58,500
会成为日常工作的一部分

379
00:11:58,500 --> 00:11:59,840
公司如何盈利

380
00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:01,080
主要盈利方式

381
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,470
是销售其软件订阅服务

382
00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:05,730
通常面向大型企业

383
00:12:05,730 --> 00:12:06,350
你知道的

384
00:12:06,350 --> 00:12:09,149
按席位收费还是按使用量收费

385
00:12:09,149 --> 00:12:10,470
这些细节都会解决

386
00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:12,850
这就是这些CEO为何顶尖

387
00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:15,110
好的，你有比尔·麦克德莫特领导这家公司

388
00:12:15,110 --> 00:12:16,090
其他方式

389
00:12:16,090 --> 00:12:21,460
帮助客户搭建软件并持续添加工具是核心业务

390
00:12:21,460 --> 00:12:21,860
是的

391
00:12:21,860 --> 00:12:26,828
许多客户长期留存因为软件融入日常运营

392
00:12:26,828 --> 00:12:28,668
难以更换

393
00:12:28,668 --> 00:12:31,428
切换新平台需要时间

394
00:12:31,428 --> 00:12:33,589
资金和培训

395
00:12:33,589 --> 00:12:34,659
是的

396
00:12:34,659 --> 00:12:35,360
是的

397
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:36,960
任何在大企业工作过的人

398
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:38,720
你明白这个对吧就像

399
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:39,019
你知道的

400
00:12:39,019 --> 00:12:41,059
如果你们公司全部换掉一些新软件

401
00:12:41,059 --> 00:12:41,940
天啊

402
00:12:41,940 --> 00:12:43,729
这肯定值得

403
00:12:43,729 --> 00:12:45,188
因为这需要很多时间

404
00:12:45,188 --> 00:12:46,229
这需要很多资金

405
00:12:46,229 --> 00:12:49,080
还要培训所有新员工

406
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:50,419
因为你不能随便让别人接手

407
00:12:50,419 --> 00:12:52,700
如果他们根本不知道在做什么对吧

408
00:12:52,700 --> 00:12:56,019
这就是ServiceNow客户留存率极高的原因

409
00:12:56,019 --> 00:12:58,649
人们注册后就不会离开

410
00:12:58,649 --> 00:13:02,250
其优势在于在一个平台上提供多种工具

411
00:13:02,250 --> 00:13:04,710
这让大公司的工作更简单

412
00:13:04,710 --> 00:13:05,870
财务健康

413
00:13:05,870 --> 00:13:08,850
简单来看收入多年持续增长

414
00:13:08,850 --> 00:13:13,429
随着更多公司购买软件现有客户支出增加

415
00:13:13,429 --> 00:13:13,850
是的

416
00:13:13,850 --> 00:13:17,100
公司盈利且现金流强劲

417
00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:18,600
看起来财务稳定

418
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,480
基于重复订阅的商业模式

419
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:23,840
听着

420
00:13:24,159 --> 00:13:26,179
这就是圣杯商业模式

421
00:13:26,179 --> 00:13:26,620
你知道的

422
00:13:26,620 --> 00:13:28,440
我理解所有关于的担忧

423
00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:28,720
人工智能

424
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:29,720
这可能意味着什么

425
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,000
我认为这对Salesforce和ServiceNow这样的公司是大机会

426
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:33,519
嗯

427
00:13:33,519 --> 00:13:34,980
远不止可怕的事

428
00:13:36,129 --> 00:13:37,769
这些都是圣杯商业模式

429
00:13:37,769 --> 00:13:38,950
SaaS商业模式

430
00:13:38,950 --> 00:13:42,590
收入持续不断流入对吧

431
00:13:42,590 --> 00:13:43,370
月复一月

432
00:13:43,370 --> 00:13:44,589
年复一年

433
00:13:44,589 --> 00:13:45,548
太美妙了

434
00:13:45,548 --> 00:13:46,629
简直完美

435
00:13:46,629 --> 00:13:47,048
你可以

436
00:13:47,048 --> 00:13:49,568
你可以让业务处于更强地位

437
00:13:49,568 --> 00:13:50,288
长期来看

438
00:13:50,288 --> 00:13:50,870
没错

439
00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:51,690
最大风险

440
00:13:51,690 --> 00:13:53,049
最大风险是竞争

441
00:13:53,049 --> 00:13:56,700
其他大型软件公司也销售同类工具

442
00:13:56,700 --> 00:14:00,769
经济疲软时部分客户可能削减开支

443
00:14:00,769 --> 00:14:03,950
乐观观点ServiceNow持续新增客户

444
00:14:03,950 --> 00:14:10,649
向现有客户销售更多工具并成为大公司核心更不可或缺悲观观点增长放缓

445
00:14:10,649 --> 00:14:12,690
竞争抢走订单

446
00:14:12,690 --> 00:14:14,610
或公司减少软件投入

447
00:14:14,610 --> 00:14:16,089
这可能影响业绩

448
00:14:16,089 --> 00:14:19,109
最终的收获服务现在看起来是一个强劲的业务

449
00:14:19,109 --> 00:14:20,249
它拥有忠实的客户

450
00:14:20,249 --> 00:14:22,679
在实用软件中获得重复收入

451
00:14:22,679 --> 00:14:25,309
主要担忧是这家大公司

452
00:14:25,549 --> 00:14:25,990
打扰一下

453
00:14:25,990 --> 00:14:29,970
最大的担忧是它处于竞争激烈的市场中的大公司

454
00:14:29,970 --> 00:14:33,139
需要持续增长以保持竞争力

455
00:14:33,139 --> 00:14:34,210
你知道的

456
00:14:34,210 --> 00:14:35,889
我对这家公司毫无担忧

457
00:14:35,889 --> 00:14:36,490
好的

458
00:14:36,490 --> 00:14:39,029
这是ServiceNow的收入趋势

459
00:14:39,029 --> 00:14:41,659
这是我们预计长期的发展方向

460
00:14:41,659 --> 00:14:42,860
这是我们目前所处的位置

461
00:14:42,860 --> 00:14:44,820
基于十二个月滚动的每股收益

462
00:14:44,820 --> 00:14:45,820
这是我们预计的发展路径

463
00:14:45,820 --> 00:14:48,539
这是基于十二个月滚动的自由现金流

464
00:14:48,539 --> 00:14:52,279
这是基于十二个月滚动的每股自由现金流

465
00:14:52,279 --> 00:14:53,279
这是所有图表功能

466
00:14:53,279 --> 00:14:54,500
我们正在查看千倍股票点

467
00:14:54,500 --> 00:14:54,899
Com

468
00:14:54,899 --> 00:14:56,159
历史市盈率

469
00:14:56,159 --> 00:14:58,139
从历史市盈率来看我们当前的位置

470
00:14:58,139 --> 00:14:59,659
这只股票极其便宜

471
00:14:59,659 --> 00:15:01,679
这源于我之前提到的因素

472
00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:02,980
处于尴尬阶段

473
00:15:02,980 --> 00:15:03,779
围绕利润

474
00:15:03,779 --> 00:15:04,840
所有收购事项

475
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,340
所有整合过程中产生的成本

476
00:15:07,340 --> 00:15:09,509
AI颠覆效应

477
00:15:09,509 --> 00:15:13,269
再加上私募信贷市场中的其他情况

478
00:15:13,269 --> 00:15:18,320
许多私募信贷公司大量投资

479
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,659
这些SaaS相关企业

480
00:15:20,659 --> 00:15:22,139
因此发生了大规模抛售

481
00:15:22,139 --> 00:15:25,570
人们认为这些股票被过度抛售

482
00:15:25,570 --> 00:15:27,559
由于整体局势的影响

483
00:15:27,559 --> 00:15:29,320
短期内局势一团糟

484
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,100
这就是现状

485
00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:31,480
作为长期投资者

486
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,169
我考虑ServiceNow未来三到五年七年的前景

487
00:15:35,169 --> 00:15:36,830
我不关注ServiceNow

488
00:15:36,830 --> 00:15:40,519
未来三到五年七个月或七周

489
00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:42,720
ServiceNow未来十美元的增长空间在哪

490
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,740
股价可能涨至八十或九十

491
00:15:44,740 --> 00:15:46,080
也可能涨至一百零一

492
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:47,580
对我来说无关紧要

493
00:15:47,580 --> 00:15:48,500
我在投资这只股票

494
00:15:48,500 --> 00:15:48,620
因为

495
00:15:48,620 --> 00:15:51,139
我相信它将再次成为两百美元以上的股票

496
00:15:51,139 --> 00:15:51,919
在未来几年

497
00:15:51,919 --> 00:15:52,980
所以你知道的

498
00:15:52,980 --> 00:15:54,179
这里差距很大

499
00:15:54,179 --> 00:15:55,299
没错，对吧

500
00:15:55,299 --> 00:15:58,299
这是公司基于十二个月的运营现金流数据

501
00:15:58,299 --> 00:16:02,230
这是公司基于滚动十二个月的运营收入数据

502
00:16:02,230 --> 00:16:04,490
我说这就是一家公司最值得关注的地方

503
00:16:04,490 --> 00:16:07,110
现在展示我的服务现在预测

504
00:16:07,110 --> 00:16:07,860
好的

505
00:16:07,860 --> 00:16:09,700
这是我的服务现在基准案例

506
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:11,620
同样通过千禧x股票网获取

507
00:16:11,620 --> 00:16:12,840
这是我们的预测功能

508
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,340
您可以运行中间预测或高级预测

509
00:16:15,340 --> 00:16:16,840
我现在展示的是中间预测

510
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:17,309
好的

511
00:16:17,309 --> 00:16:18,578
更简洁的视图

512
00:16:18,578 --> 00:16:19,259
收入增长率

513
00:16:19,259 --> 00:16:21,538
我的乐观案例平均设定为20%

514
00:16:21,538 --> 00:16:23,658
有些年份可能增长更快

515
00:16:23,658 --> 00:16:24,739
有些年份可能稍慢

516
00:16:24,739 --> 00:16:26,219
但平均是20%

517
00:16:26,219 --> 00:16:27,700
2027至2030年

518
00:16:27,700 --> 00:16:30,759
然后净利润增长率平均为2.5%

519
00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:33,350
如果保持这样的增速

520
00:16:33,350 --> 00:16:34,909
SaaS公司40-60倍市盈率合理

521
00:16:34,909 --> 00:16:36,000
估值会很公允

522
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:37,320
这将带来复合

523
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,299
年均40-54%的复合增长率

524
00:16:40,299 --> 00:16:40,580
没错

525
00:16:40,580 --> 00:16:43,559
股价可能上涨至约350美元

526
00:16:43,559 --> 00:16:49,440
未来四到五年可能进入500美元区间

527
00:16:49,870 --> 00:16:51,049
这很有吸引力

528
00:16:51,049 --> 00:16:52,350
我的基准案例

529
00:16:52,350 --> 00:16:54,419
简单说就是我的预期

530
00:16:54,419 --> 00:16:56,259
我预计收入增长17%

531
00:16:56,259 --> 00:16:57,440
比2%慢很多

532
00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:58,659
目前他们实际增速是2%

533
00:16:58,659 --> 00:17:02,799
未来几年收入增速会明显放缓

534
00:17:02,799 --> 00:17:05,720
2027年前平均17%

535
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,980
2027年前净利润增速平均22%

536
00:17:09,980 --> 00:17:11,650
30-35倍市盈率

537
00:17:11,650 --> 00:17:11,849
P/E

538
00:17:11,849 --> 00:17:14,650
这样的增速对应的估值合理

539
00:17:14,650 --> 00:17:18,099
这种商业模式下股价在237-277美元

540
00:17:18,099 --> 00:17:19,519
之间

541
00:17:19,519 --> 00:17:22,339
带来约30%的年复合增长率

542
00:17:22,339 --> 00:17:22,940
大致

543
00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:24,059
这就是基准案例

544
00:17:24,059 --> 00:17:24,920
所以这就是第一个

545
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:25,380
你知道的

546
00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:26,859
如果你想知道为什么买入服务现在

547
00:17:26,859 --> 00:17:27,099
股票

548
00:17:27,099 --> 00:17:28,259
现在

549
00:17:28,460 --> 00:17:29,980
这是因为当我运行基准案例时

550
00:17:29,980 --> 00:17:30,619
我得到了一个CAG

551
00:17:30,619 --> 00:17:32,019
或者大约30%

552
00:17:32,019 --> 00:17:32,740
我的意思是

553
00:17:32,740 --> 00:17:33,240
别闹了

554
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:34,259
我们要拿下这个宝贝

555
00:17:34,259 --> 00:17:34,559
好的

556
00:17:34,559 --> 00:17:35,819
我们要全天持有它

557
00:17:35,819 --> 00:17:37,859
股票的熊市情景

558
00:17:37,859 --> 00:17:41,400
所以熊市情景下平均仅12%营收增长

559
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,079
净利润平均增长12%

560
00:17:43,079 --> 00:17:44,419
没错，SaaS公司

561
00:17:44,419 --> 00:17:45,398
12%的营收增长

562
00:17:45,398 --> 00:17:46,239
12%的净利润增长

563
00:17:46,239 --> 00:17:47,159
25到30倍

564
00:17:47,159 --> 00:17:47,598
你会觉得合理

565
00:17:47,598 --> 00:17:50,778
即使在熊市假设下我仍能获得两位数的年复合增长率

566
00:17:50,778 --> 00:17:54,679
即使在我的熊市假设下

567
00:17:54,679 --> 00:17:56,939
我仍能超越标普500

568
00:17:56,939 --> 00:17:59,230
未来四到五年增长500%

569
00:17:59,230 --> 00:18:01,390
这就是我现在买入ServiceNow的原因

570
00:18:01,390 --> 00:18:02,569
对的

571
00:18:02,970 --> 00:18:07,690
简而言之，未来几年不赚钱的唯一方式是

572
00:18:07,690 --> 00:18:12,920
如果称为低于5%概率的Scenario在ServiceNow上演

573
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,470
并彻底颠覆其商业模式

574
00:18:15,470 --> 00:18:18,940
我认为低于5%的概率不会发生

575
00:18:18,940 --> 00:18:20,099
这始终是可能的

576
00:18:20,099 --> 00:18:22,579
这也是我无法过度杠杆此仓位的原因

577
00:18:22,579 --> 00:18:23,460
或者类似的情况对吧

578
00:18:23,460 --> 00:18:24,420
我不能投入太多

579
00:18:24,420 --> 00:18:27,348
但最终ServiceNow是买入

580
00:18:27,348 --> 00:18:28,429
这是一个买入

581
00:18:28,429 --> 00:18:29,229
这是一个买入

582
00:18:29,229 --> 00:18:29,769
好的

583
00:18:29,769 --> 00:18:30,769
各位

584
00:18:30,769 --> 00:18:34,099
现在进入今天的第四只股票中的第三只

585
00:18:34,099 --> 00:18:36,960
这只股票是ELF

586
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,220
该股票的代码是

587
00:18:39,220 --> 00:18:40,680
E L F

588
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,900
今天这只股票价格为61美元

589
00:18:42,900 --> 00:18:48,460
我在当前持仓中已实现749%的收益

590
00:18:48,460 --> 00:18:50,140
从2019年2月开始买入

591
00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:54,400
Elf当前股价为7美元28美分

592
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,380
其核心业务和品牌是大狗

593
00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:01,829
没错，品牌以高性价比化妆品闻名

594
00:19:01,829 --> 00:19:04,289
以高质量化妆品著称

595
00:19:04,289 --> 00:19:07,910
如果你从未见过Elf产品，可以去当地沃尔玛看看

596
00:19:07,910 --> 00:19:08,750
我知道像

597
00:19:08,750 --> 00:19:09,130
你知道的

598
00:19:09,130 --> 00:19:12,200
观看我频道的观众中约有85%到90%是男性

599
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,000
你们可能对化妆品或化妆一窍不通

600
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,079
这类事情你们可能不太了解对吧

601
00:19:16,079 --> 00:19:17,380
去你们附近的沃尔玛

602
00:19:17,380 --> 00:19:18,460
去你们附近的Target

603
00:19:18,460 --> 00:19:19,299
你会看到这些产品

604
00:19:19,299 --> 00:19:21,119
现在几乎任何商店都能找到

605
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,599
你会发现Elf的价格非常低廉

606
00:19:24,599 --> 00:19:26,980
许多产品都在十美元以下

607
00:19:26,980 --> 00:19:30,680
在Elf的产品中几乎全部都在二十美元以下

608
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,859
他们在化妆品或护肤品方面价格非常亲民

609
00:19:33,859 --> 00:19:35,160
这类产品对吧

610
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,319
所以他们很难被竞争对手超越

611
00:19:37,319 --> 00:19:37,819
他们

612
00:19:37,819 --> 00:19:38,799
拥有优质产品

613
00:19:38,799 --> 00:19:40,380
营销做得很好

614
00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:42,680
你知道广告宣传这些都很到位对吧

615
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,259
此外他们还拥有其他品牌

616
00:19:44,259 --> 00:19:47,690
最令人兴奋的是这个叫Road的品牌

617
00:19:47,690 --> 00:19:48,849
他们去年收购了

618
00:19:48,849 --> 00:19:50,710
或者说是哈莉·贝蓓的公司

619
00:19:50,710 --> 00:19:51,529
哈莉·贝蓓

620
00:19:51,529 --> 00:19:53,369
贾斯汀·比伯的妻子

621
00:19:53,369 --> 00:19:56,900
显然两人都是超级名人

622
00:19:56,900 --> 00:19:58,819
她创立了Road这个品牌

623
00:19:58,819 --> 00:20:02,019
我的天啊这个公司简直是炙手可热的品牌

624
00:20:02,019 --> 00:20:04,490
如果不是最热门的品牌

625
00:20:04,490 --> 00:20:06,650
在美妆领域

626
00:20:06,650 --> 00:20:07,480
好吧

627
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,599
他们能做到这一点简直令人难以置信

628
00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:13,380
这确实是公司短期内的最大机会

629
00:20:13,380 --> 00:20:14,559
长期发展我们拭目以待

630
00:20:14,559 --> 00:20:14,960
你知道的

631
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,599
大概还是保持Elf的地位

632
00:20:16,599 --> 00:20:18,400
但就短期机会而言

633
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:18,920
当我提到

634
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:19,240
短期

635
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,230
我指的是一到两年内

636
00:20:21,230 --> 00:20:23,329
我的天啊Road的发展前景

637
00:20:23,329 --> 00:20:24,009
你知道的

638
00:20:24,009 --> 00:20:25,529
还有很长的增长空间

639
00:20:25,529 --> 00:20:29,150
特别是在接下来的一到两年

640
00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:31,430
在拓展零售渠道方面

641
00:20:31,430 --> 00:20:34,138
扩大产品线对吧

642
00:20:34,378 --> 00:20:36,439
增加更多分销点

643
00:20:36,439 --> 00:20:39,479
最终他们许多产品都会卖断货

644
00:20:39,479 --> 00:20:41,118
不断推出新产品对吧

645
00:20:41,118 --> 00:20:44,210
并扩展他们的商标

646
00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:46,329
进入更多产品类别对吧

647
00:20:46,329 --> 00:20:48,150
这是一项惊人的长期机遇

648
00:20:48,150 --> 00:20:50,138
但这里的短期机会简直荒谬

649
00:20:50,138 --> 00:20:51,058
他们还有一个品牌

650
00:20:51,058 --> 00:20:51,878
这个非常成功

651
00:20:51,878 --> 00:20:52,778
你可能会看到这个品牌

652
00:20:52,778 --> 00:20:55,239
如果你去当地的Target或其他商店

653
00:20:55,239 --> 00:20:56,358
越来越受欢迎了

654
00:20:56,358 --> 00:20:57,730
它叫Notorium

655
00:20:57,730 --> 00:21:02,089
在身体沐浴露和润肤乳方面非常流行

656
00:21:02,089 --> 00:21:05,039
这类产品Notorium持续走红

657
00:21:05,039 --> 00:21:06,440
这是一个非常成功的品牌

658
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:07,640
他们还拥有其他品牌

659
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,619
我只是想简要提及我认为的三大品牌

660
00:21:10,619 --> 00:21:14,819
显然有Elf品牌和Notorium护肤线

661
00:21:14,819 --> 00:21:15,740
还有Road品牌

662
00:21:15,740 --> 00:21:18,420
这是整个领域最热门的品牌之一

663
00:21:18,420 --> 00:21:18,960
现在

664
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,910
现在对于Elf Beauty

665
00:21:20,910 --> 00:21:21,630
四点pm

666
00:21:21,630 --> 00:21:23,390
股价像十八

667
00:21:23,390 --> 00:21:24,569
这价格太低了

668
00:21:24,569 --> 00:21:26,109
Elf的营收增长

669
00:21:26,109 --> 00:21:30,868
我个人认为未来几年将保持两位数增长

670
00:21:30,868 --> 00:21:33,749
未来许多年都将如此

671
00:21:33,749 --> 00:21:36,680
而市盈率低于二十

672
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,859
对于营收增长两位数的股票

673
00:21:38,859 --> 00:21:41,730
然后可能极强

674
00:21:41,730 --> 00:21:44,839
未来几年每股收益增长两位数

675
00:21:44,839 --> 00:21:47,799
这只股票简直太便宜了

676
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:49,559
这难道不是太便宜了吗

677
00:21:49,559 --> 00:21:52,259
让我展示我对Elf的预测

678
00:21:52,259 --> 00:21:54,420
然后我们再讨论买入目标等

679
00:21:54,420 --> 00:21:54,839
好的

680
00:21:54,839 --> 00:21:56,319
看看这个

681
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,480
我对Elf的看涨案例

682
00:21:58,480 --> 00:21:59,059
好的

683
00:21:59,059 --> 00:22:00,700
这令人震惊

684
00:22:00,700 --> 00:22:03,259
这是我最兴奋的看涨案例之一

685
00:22:03,259 --> 00:22:04,880
为我的所有股票

686
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:05,740
好的

687
00:22:05,740 --> 00:22:11,319
他们预计2027年营收增长20%或25%

688
00:22:11,319 --> 00:22:13,000
之后保持20%增长

689
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:13,829
好的

690
00:22:13,829 --> 00:22:18,390
我预计2027-2030年净利润平均增长30%

691
00:22:18,390 --> 00:22:19,210
好的

692
00:22:19,210 --> 00:22:21,690
如果一家公司营收增长20%

693
00:22:21,690 --> 00:22:22,769
净利润增长30%

694
00:22:22,769 --> 00:22:24,750
这几乎像SaaS商业模式

695
00:22:24,750 --> 00:22:26,309
在美妆领域

696
00:22:26,309 --> 00:22:27,710
因为人们会重复购买

697
00:22:27,710 --> 00:22:28,529
你会用完

698
00:22:28,529 --> 00:22:28,970
你知道吗

699
00:22:28,970 --> 00:22:33,509
我不知道你的遮瑕液或者什么的对吧

700
00:22:33,509 --> 00:22:34,990
嗯，来自Elf品牌

701
00:22:34,990 --> 00:22:36,549
不管你的唇彩是什么

702
00:22:36,549 --> 00:22:38,878
你要去买另一个吗

703
00:22:38,878 --> 00:22:40,118
这就是这个行业说的那样

704
00:22:40,118 --> 00:22:41,838
这属于消费型商业模式对吧

705
00:22:41,838 --> 00:22:43,199
Notorum之类的

706
00:22:43,199 --> 00:22:45,559
如果你需要沐浴露

707
00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:47,220
你就再买更多沐浴露

708
00:22:47,220 --> 00:22:48,420
你知道我的意思吧

709
00:22:48,420 --> 00:22:49,140
这简直太

710
00:22:49,140 --> 00:22:50,619
这几乎像SaaS商业模式

711
00:22:50,619 --> 00:22:51,679
看看这个

712
00:22:51,679 --> 00:22:53,919
这些假设是基于我的判断

713
00:22:53,919 --> 00:22:55,220
这里35到40美元

714
00:22:55,220 --> 00:22:57,960
我们说的涨幅超过50%

715
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,700
这是我最兴奋的看涨案例

716
00:22:59,700 --> 00:23:01,029
针对任何股票

717
00:23:01,029 --> 00:23:02,750
这就是赚钱机器

718
00:23:02,750 --> 00:23:03,609
我们说的

719
00:23:03,609 --> 00:23:06,130
记住今天股价是61美元

720
00:23:06,130 --> 00:23:07,650
在我的看涨情景下

721
00:23:07,650 --> 00:23:08,450
请记住

722
00:23:08,450 --> 00:23:08,930
我的看涨情景

723
00:23:08,930 --> 00:23:09,789
我只会放入

724
00:23:09,789 --> 00:23:12,809
大概有10%的概率左右对吧

725
00:23:12,809 --> 00:23:14,910
这绝对不是稳赚

726
00:23:14,910 --> 00:23:16,609
但兄弟

727
00:23:16,609 --> 00:23:17,490
如果发生这种情况

728
00:23:17,490 --> 00:23:21,269
股价将涨至332到379

729
00:23:21,269 --> 00:23:23,329
我们手握翻倍机会

730
00:23:23,329 --> 00:23:24,029
女士们先生们

731
00:23:24,029 --> 00:23:24,490
好的

732
00:23:24,490 --> 00:23:25,769
我们说2028年

733
00:23:25,769 --> 00:23:28,130
现在已经是两百多美元的股票了

734
00:23:28,130 --> 00:23:29,509
但让我们看看基准情景

735
00:23:29,509 --> 00:23:32,119
我的基准情景就是实际预期

736
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:32,720
听着

737
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,799
我预计2027年营收增长2.3%

738
00:23:34,799 --> 00:23:37,619
2027年净利润增长20%

739
00:23:37,619 --> 00:23:40,400
然后之后每年净利润增长20%

740
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:41,799
营收增长15%

741
00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:43,220
这不是疯狂假设

742
00:23:43,220 --> 00:23:44,880
在我看来相当保守

743
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:50,700
像这样的消费公司30到35美元是合理估值

744
00:23:50,700 --> 00:23:52,470
以这样的增长速度

745
00:23:52,470 --> 00:23:54,049
我说啊

746
00:23:54,049 --> 00:23:57,069
我们说3.5%到40%的CAGR

747
00:23:57,069 --> 00:23:57,950
我们说这只股票

748
00:23:57,950 --> 00:23:59,809
这是206到241

749
00:23:59,809 --> 00:24:00,369
我的意思是

750
00:24:00,369 --> 00:24:03,470
假设未来几年他们能回购大量股份

751
00:24:03,470 --> 00:24:07,240
他们可以收购其他可能成为成功品牌的公司

752
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,579
我意思是其商业模式选项实在太多

753
00:24:11,579 --> 00:24:17,700
这使得该股成为整个股市最具吸引力的投资之一

754
00:24:17,700 --> 00:24:19,500
elf接下来还有十美元空间吗

755
00:24:19,500 --> 00:24:20,980
我的猜测和你一样

756
00:24:20,980 --> 00:24:22,670
是不是51美元

757
00:24:22,670 --> 00:24:23,430
还是说

758
00:24:23,430 --> 00:24:24,069
你知道的

759
00:24:24,069 --> 00:24:24,670
呃

760
00:24:24,670 --> 00:24:25,410
71美元

761
00:24:25,410 --> 00:24:26,230
我不知道

762
00:24:26,230 --> 00:24:27,940
而且我不在意

763
00:24:27,940 --> 00:24:29,200
我专注于这只股票

764
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,700
因为我相信未来几年这只股票将超200美元

765
00:24:32,700 --> 00:24:36,069
今天以61美元买入股份

766
00:24:36,069 --> 00:24:36,789
来吧

767
00:24:36,789 --> 00:24:37,589
兄弟来吧

768
00:24:37,589 --> 00:24:38,670
这就是圣人烟在说的

769
00:24:38,670 --> 00:24:40,799
开个玩笑是泥熊案例

770
00:24:40,799 --> 00:24:43,019
这是我见过最漂亮的熊市案例

771
00:24:43,019 --> 00:24:45,319
针对整个市场任何股票

772
00:24:45,319 --> 00:24:48,950
看这里两年18%的营收增长

773
00:24:48,950 --> 00:24:49,230
七年

774
00:24:49,230 --> 00:24:50,710
之后9%的营收增长

775
00:24:50,710 --> 00:24:51,289
之后

776
00:24:51,289 --> 00:24:53,160
非常令人沮丧的低增长

777
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:53,440
对吧

778
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,000
甚至不到两位数，这对elf的增长太糟糕了

779
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,400
这样的增长率每年只有9%

780
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,680
持续稳定的收入增长

781
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,359
对吧

782
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:01,160
9%

783
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,019
9%的业务模式

784
00:25:03,019 --> 00:25:04,380
像elf这样安全的公司

785
00:25:04,380 --> 00:25:05,929
2328市盈率

786
00:25:05,929 --> 00:25:08,469
我仍然获得15到20%

787
00:25:08,469 --> 00:25:09,888
一%的股息

788
00:25:09,888 --> 00:25:11,249
我们在谈论烟草

789
00:25:11,249 --> 00:25:12,028
市场

790
00:25:12,028 --> 00:25:14,528
即使在熊市情况下

791
00:25:15,539 --> 00:25:17,000
这就是女士们先生们

792
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,460
我必须买入elf股票

793
00:25:18,460 --> 00:25:20,779
这就是为什么像来吧

794
00:25:20,779 --> 00:25:21,920
你会让我

795
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:22,500
你知道的

796
00:25:22,500 --> 00:25:23,700
接近20%的涨幅

797
00:25:23,700 --> 00:25:24,140
凯尔

798
00:25:24,140 --> 00:25:26,710
大致在货船上

799
00:25:27,150 --> 00:25:28,369
在熊的案例上

800
00:25:28,369 --> 00:25:30,250
快点宝贝快点

801
00:25:30,250 --> 00:25:30,900
好的

802
00:25:30,900 --> 00:25:32,500
所以和精灵有个交易

803
00:25:32,500 --> 00:25:32,839
好的

804
00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:34,660
一百美元以下的东西都买

805
00:25:34,660 --> 00:25:35,519
直到你哭出来

806
00:25:35,519 --> 00:25:35,920
好的

807
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,819
你买你买你买一百美元以下的

808
00:25:37,819 --> 00:25:39,069
我就这么简单说

809
00:25:39,069 --> 00:25:40,589
我们不需要讨论所有细节

810
00:25:40,589 --> 00:25:42,750
但我刚才展示了我对股票的预测

811
00:25:42,750 --> 00:25:47,009
如果我的预测接近的话啊

812
00:25:47,009 --> 00:25:47,970
巴格公司的股票

813
00:25:47,970 --> 00:25:51,309
未来几年将赚取大量利润

814
00:25:51,309 --> 00:25:52,750
所以买入所有股份

815
00:25:52,750 --> 00:25:53,950
一百美元以下对吧

816
00:25:53,950 --> 00:25:54,589
这就是我在做的事

817
00:25:54,589 --> 00:25:55,529
至少目前

818
00:25:55,529 --> 00:25:59,000
这四只股票中的第四只

819
00:26:00,740 --> 00:26:05,579
凯尔西控股股票代码CELH 凯尔西控股

820
00:26:05,579 --> 00:26:07,529
他们拥有凯尔西能量饮料公司

821
00:26:07,529 --> 00:26:10,339
过去五年变得非常流行

822
00:26:10,339 --> 00:26:12,420
现在你知道几乎任何商店都能看到

823
00:26:12,420 --> 00:26:13,359
你看到凯尔西

824
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,799
他们现在还拥有隆尼品牌

825
00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:18,559
并最近从百事收购了摇滚之星

826
00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:21,180
他们现在还与百事有大分销协议

827
00:26:21,180 --> 00:26:21,259
这

828
00:26:21,259 --> 00:26:23,160
因此他们遍布各地分销

829
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,430
这对公司长期增长和健康非常有利

830
00:26:26,430 --> 00:26:31,269
整体国际机会堪称十年大戏

831
00:26:31,269 --> 00:26:34,409
你开始看到凯尔西和隆尼

832
00:26:34,409 --> 00:26:35,949
当然还有摇滚之星

833
00:26:35,949 --> 00:26:38,769
这些品牌在美国广泛分布

834
00:26:38,769 --> 00:26:40,608
美国仍有大量扩展空间

835
00:26:40,608 --> 00:26:42,569
在美国销售潜力巨大

836
00:26:42,569 --> 00:26:43,890
但最大的机会

837
00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:46,609
未来十年在于国际市场

838
00:26:46,609 --> 00:26:49,700
国际市场目前占比很小

839
00:26:49,700 --> 00:26:51,660
公司当前收入的占比

840
00:26:51,660 --> 00:26:53,529
没错

841
00:26:53,529 --> 00:26:54,589
凯尔西布局非常合理

842
00:26:54,589 --> 00:26:55,710
我认为未来一年

843
00:26:55,710 --> 00:26:57,049
以及未来几年

844
00:26:57,049 --> 00:26:59,000
因此这是一只相当有吸引力的股票

845
00:26:59,000 --> 00:26:59,539
在我看来

846
00:26:59,539 --> 00:27:00,480
短期而言

847
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:01,720
即未来十二个月内

848
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,740
同时从未来十二年的视角来看

849
00:27:04,740 --> 00:27:09,950
了解市场上一些最好的投资标的

850
00:27:10,150 --> 00:27:11,329
我们是饮料公司

851
00:27:11,329 --> 00:27:14,450
可口可乐、百事、Monster

852
00:27:14,450 --> 00:27:16,250
我很幸运成为Monster的股东

853
00:27:16,250 --> 00:27:17,490
许多年前

854
00:27:17,490 --> 00:27:19,289
我买入了首批Monster股票

855
00:27:19,289 --> 00:27:21,138
大概是在

856
00:27:21,378 --> 00:27:24,719
我估计大概是2011年

857
00:27:24,719 --> 00:27:25,659
可能是2010年

858
00:27:25,659 --> 00:27:27,400
但我觉得是2011年左右

859
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,380
我得以持有Monster几年

860
00:27:29,380 --> 00:27:30,940
那真是趟美妙的旅程

861
00:27:30,940 --> 00:27:32,000
嗯

862
00:27:32,319 --> 00:27:33,779
可能应该一直不卖股票

863
00:27:33,779 --> 00:27:34,859
本可以赚更多钱

864
00:27:34,859 --> 00:27:35,039
对吧

865
00:27:35,039 --> 00:27:37,039
但这是只不可思议的股票

866
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:39,400
他们正在经历巨大增长

867
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:39,759
你知道的

868
00:27:39,759 --> 00:27:42,359
过去十年的故事大多来自国际扩张

869
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:43,319
关于这家公司

870
00:27:43,319 --> 00:27:44,759
他们与可口可乐合作

871
00:27:44,759 --> 00:27:47,480
可口可乐大幅投资并押注他们

872
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,960
而百事近年也对Celsius做了同样的事

873
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,359
他们正全力押注Celsius

874
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,059
这家公司未来数年仍有巨大上涨空间

875
00:27:56,059 --> 00:27:59,799
但想想像可口可乐、百事、Monster这样的优质商业模式

876
00:27:59,799 --> 00:28:03,740
但必须早期介入才能赚取变革性收益

877
00:28:03,740 --> 00:28:04,000
对吧

878
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:04,799
改变人生的财富

879
00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:07,869
无论叫什么，百事可乐、Monster

880
00:28:07,869 --> 00:28:10,710
如今这类公司都是造钱机器

881
00:28:10,710 --> 00:28:12,970
你知道的，仍能长期增值

882
00:28:12,970 --> 00:28:14,549
还能获得股息等好处

883
00:28:14,549 --> 00:28:17,920
但已不如多年前的变革性收益

884
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,200
比如巴菲特当年买入可口可乐在80年代

885
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:21,680
那时能赚取巨额利润

886
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:23,279
没错，同样的道理

887
00:28:23,279 --> 00:28:25,640
过去曾买入百事、Monster

888
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:26,799
如果当时买入这支股票

889
00:28:26,799 --> 00:28:27,720
当我买入这支股票时

890
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,079
现在回想起来已是十五年前

891
00:28:30,079 --> 00:28:30,739
嗯

892
00:28:30,739 --> 00:28:33,038
如果更早十年入手

893
00:28:33,038 --> 00:28:33,298
哦

894
00:28:33,298 --> 00:28:34,199
天啊

895
00:28:34,199 --> 00:28:35,959
收益简直惊人

896
00:28:35,959 --> 00:28:37,138
如果你投资了这支股票

897
00:28:37,138 --> 00:28:38,138
如果你参与了这次谈话

898
00:28:38,138 --> 00:28:39,650
就像你可能赚了那么多钱

899
00:28:39,650 --> 00:28:40,170
如果你能参与其中

900
00:28:40,170 --> 00:28:41,009
当我进入这个时

901
00:28:41,009 --> 00:28:44,099
但我说的是如果你能投资那支股票啊

902
00:28:44,099 --> 00:28:46,759
就像十年前那样对吧

903
00:28:46,759 --> 00:28:48,920
我当时不幸没在那时投资

904
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,319
但你确实赚了改变人生的财富

905
00:28:51,319 --> 00:28:52,480
你变得极其富有

906
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,750
这简直难以想象

907
00:28:54,750 --> 00:28:56,170
理解自己有多富有

908
00:28:56,170 --> 00:28:56,990
就像你身处

909
00:28:56,990 --> 00:28:57,789
就像那个层次

910
00:28:57,789 --> 00:28:58,690
你可以买游艇

911
00:28:58,690 --> 00:28:59,390
就像你可以买

912
00:28:59,390 --> 00:29:00,250
私人飞机

913
00:29:00,250 --> 00:29:02,730
你知道的就像这样

914
00:29:02,730 --> 00:29:04,390
金钱对你几乎无关紧要

915
00:29:04,390 --> 00:29:05,309
因为这太离谱了

916
00:29:05,309 --> 00:29:06,549
如果你有怪物股回归

917
00:29:06,549 --> 00:29:07,279
那确实没错

918
00:29:07,279 --> 00:29:08,859
这些公司令人难以置信

919
00:29:08,859 --> 00:29:11,180
现在 Celsius 仍处于早期阶段

920
00:29:11,180 --> 00:29:14,700
过去五到六年表现优异

921
00:29:14,700 --> 00:29:16,500
但这支股票仍处于早期

922
00:29:16,500 --> 00:29:19,279
市值已达86.2亿美元

923
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:23,490
这家公司市值不足十亿美元，仍处早期

924
00:29:23,490 --> 00:29:24,269
非常早期

925
00:29:24,269 --> 00:29:25,450
关于 Celsius 的情况

926
00:29:25,450 --> 00:29:25,690
我说啊

927
00:29:25,690 --> 00:29:28,250
这些公司市值已达数百亿

928
00:29:28,250 --> 00:29:30,009
甚至 Monster 730亿

929
00:29:30,009 --> 00:29:30,289
没错

930
00:29:30,289 --> 00:29:31,930
我们现在仍处于早期

931
00:29:31,930 --> 00:29:35,150
华尔街也开始关注 Celsius

932
00:29:35,150 --> 00:29:36,349
这非常近期

933
00:29:36,349 --> 00:29:41,400
Celsius Holdings 获 JP Morgan 评级为超配

934
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,890
他们不得不下调价格目标

935
00:29:43,890 --> 00:29:45,170
因为股价大幅下跌

936
00:29:45,170 --> 00:29:46,690
但他们仍调整价格目标

937
00:29:46,690 --> 00:29:51,259
即使下调至67美元

938
00:29:51,259 --> 00:29:52,180
我说啊

939
00:29:52,180 --> 00:29:52,940
这太疯狂了

940
00:29:52,940 --> 00:29:54,859
这是从当前的两倍涨幅

941
00:29:54,859 --> 00:29:55,220
没错

942
00:29:55,220 --> 00:29:55,859
这只股票如何

943
00:29:55,859 --> 00:29:57,319
三十多三十多

944
00:29:57,319 --> 00:30:00,819
从33涨到67在未来十二个月

945
00:30:01,339 --> 00:30:03,359
这是看涨的预测

946
00:30:03,359 --> 00:30:05,359
不是无名机构

947
00:30:05,359 --> 00:30:07,200
这是 JP Morgan

948
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,069
摩根大通

949
00:30:09,069 --> 00:30:10,950
他们在讨论第67号股票

950
00:30:11,990 --> 00:30:13,670
看看花旗集团

951
00:30:13,670 --> 00:30:17,089
花旗集团将目标价下调至60美元

952
00:30:17,089 --> 00:30:18,329
60美元

953
00:30:18,329 --> 00:30:20,089
他们在未来十二个月内将股价定在斯德哥尔摩水平

954
00:30:20,089 --> 00:30:20,720
没错

955
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:21,880
至于 Celsius

956
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,000
这只股票有很多短期机会

957
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:24,759
我们可能会看到

958
00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:27,980
未来十二个月内股价升至50到70美元之间

959
00:30:27,980 --> 00:30:31,849
但Celsius的长期机会更大

960
00:30:31,849 --> 00:30:33,450
让我展示一些预测数据

961
00:30:33,450 --> 00:30:34,549
我这里有Celsius的数据

962
00:30:34,549 --> 00:30:36,150
现在查看Thousand X Stocks网站

963
00:30:36,150 --> 00:30:36,529
好的

964
00:30:36,529 --> 00:30:37,589
我喜欢我们的预测

965
00:30:37,589 --> 00:30:42,490
我在2030年展示了Celsius的看涨案例

966
00:30:42,490 --> 00:30:43,950
预计实现约68亿美元营收

967
00:30:43,950 --> 00:30:45,150
80亿美元营收

968
00:30:45,150 --> 00:30:46,130
不算夸张

969
00:30:46,130 --> 00:30:47,609
净利润约10亿美元

970
00:30:47,609 --> 00:30:48,470
不算夸张

971
00:30:48,470 --> 00:30:49,125
好的

972
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,160
你设定15%的增长率

973
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:51,599
营收端

974
00:30:51,599 --> 00:30:52,839
25%的净利润端

975
00:30:52,839 --> 00:30:54,740
35到40倍市盈率左右

976
00:30:54,740 --> 00:30:56,640
我们讨论的是43到48%

977
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,359
在看涨案例下股票有约8%的涨幅

978
00:31:00,359 --> 00:31:02,380
Celsius的基准案例

979
00:31:02,380 --> 00:31:03,049
好的

980
00:31:03,049 --> 00:31:04,970
基准案例预计2030年营收590亿美元

981
00:31:04,970 --> 00:31:08,309
2030年营收达590亿美元

982
00:31:08,309 --> 00:31:09,329
740万

983
00:31:09,329 --> 00:31:13,450
2030年净利润3000万美元

984
00:31:13,450 --> 00:31:14,380
对的

985
00:31:14,380 --> 00:31:16,059
如果营收增长

986
00:31:16,059 --> 00:31:16,640
10%

987
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:17,960
15%的净利润率

988
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,000
基于消费的商业模式

989
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,039
用户持续饮用Celsius

990
00:31:22,039 --> 00:31:23,839
第二天、下周都会继续饮用

991
00:31:23,839 --> 00:31:24,640
并持续饮用

992
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:24,799
对的

993
00:31:24,799 --> 00:31:26,339
Alani及所有产品

994
00:31:26,339 --> 00:31:28,819
28到33倍市盈率非常合理

995
00:31:28,819 --> 00:31:31,180
在这样的增长模式下

996
00:31:31,180 --> 00:31:33,200
我们谈论的是两

997
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:37,980
5到30%的复合年增长率

998
00:31:37,980 --> 00:31:40,369
我的意思是这非常非常有吸引力

999
00:31:40,369 --> 00:31:41,930
非常非常有吸引力

1000
00:31:41,930 --> 00:31:43,269
而且我要说的是

1001
00:31:43,269 --> 00:31:44,329
当你看这个的时候

1002
00:31:44,329 --> 00:31:44,750
这个

1003
00:31:44,750 --> 00:31:45,990
这个基准案例

1004
00:31:45,990 --> 00:31:46,750
不像

1005
00:31:46,750 --> 00:31:48,250
这些数字太疯狂了

1006
00:31:48,250 --> 00:31:52,210
不像哇根本不可能做到

1007
00:31:52,210 --> 00:31:52,990
我当时太疯狂了

1008
00:31:52,990 --> 00:31:56,609
来吧现在我拿出我的熊市案例

1009
00:31:56,609 --> 00:31:57,630
熊市案例

1010
00:31:57,630 --> 00:31:59,289
我让他们进入五点

1011
00:31:59,289 --> 00:32:01,529
一十亿美元营收在二十三年

1012
00:32:01,529 --> 00:32:05,509
五亿一千一百六十万美元净利润在二十三年对吧

1013
00:32:05,509 --> 00:32:06,430
二十到二十五

1014
00:32:06,430 --> 00:32:06,670
P

1015
00:32:06,670 --> 00:32:08,630
对于一家公司来说非常公平

1016
00:32:08,630 --> 00:32:09,069
你知道的

1017
00:32:09,069 --> 00:32:10,710
五个百分点的净利润增长

1018
00:32:10,710 --> 00:32:12,150
每年五个百分点的营收增长

1019
00:32:12,150 --> 00:32:13,309
在这个领域

1020
00:32:14,019 --> 00:32:15,980
我们说五到十一个百分点啊

1021
00:32:15,980 --> 00:32:17,039
所以仍然是赚钱的

1022
00:32:17,039 --> 00:32:18,579
即使在我的熊市假设下

1023
00:32:18,579 --> 00:32:20,359
这简直是个令人沮丧的熊市案例对吧

1024
00:32:20,359 --> 00:32:23,559
五个百分点五个百分点现在简直残酷

1025
00:32:23,559 --> 00:32:24,279
毛利率

1026
00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:24,740
长期来看

1027
00:32:24,740 --> 00:32:25,880
还有很长的上升空间

1028
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:26,500
净利率

1029
00:32:26,500 --> 00:32:28,839
未来多年都有巨大增长潜力

1030
00:32:28,839 --> 00:32:29,539
对吧

1031
00:32:29,539 --> 00:32:31,619
营收增长或整体营收

1032
00:32:31,619 --> 00:32:34,799
这家公司的十二个月滚动营收目前处于这个水平

1033
00:32:34,799 --> 00:32:39,170
现在预计未来几年每股收益将呈现这个趋势

1034
00:32:39,170 --> 00:32:40,210
这就是我们现在的情况

1035
00:32:40,210 --> 00:32:43,309
这是我们未来几个季度的预期趋势

1036
00:32:43,309 --> 00:32:43,730
对吧

1037
00:32:43,730 --> 00:32:45,359
想象长期的发展前景

1038
00:32:45,359 --> 00:32:48,539
公司的自由现金流应该会飙升

1039
00:32:48,539 --> 00:32:49,819
每股自由现金流

1040
00:32:49,819 --> 00:32:50,920
这就是我们现在的情况

1041
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:56,009
历史市盈率看下来，现在买入凯尔西简直是大买点

1042
00:32:56,009 --> 00:32:56,529
好吧

1043
00:32:56,529 --> 00:32:57,409
听着

1044
00:32:57,409 --> 00:32:58,969
不要只关注短期

1045
00:32:58,969 --> 00:32:59,909
对于任何事情

1046
00:32:59,909 --> 00:33:01,229
总有很多变动因素

1047
00:33:01,229 --> 00:33:02,638
专注于长期

1048
00:33:02,638 --> 00:33:04,719
请记住我在视频开头和大家讨论的内容

1049
00:33:04,719 --> 00:33:07,900
想象一下未来五到十年甚至十五年你的生活会发展到哪里

1050
00:33:07,900 --> 00:33:08,880
你努力工作

1051
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:09,720
你聪明工作

1052
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,359
震惊于你能取得的成就

1053
00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:12,220
看看公开数据

1054
00:33:12,220 --> 00:33:14,019
你知道这个投资组合现在的情况

1055
00:33:14,019 --> 00:33:15,369
简直难以置信对吧

1056
00:33:15,369 --> 00:33:18,759
想想在未来几年你能完成什么成就

1057
00:33:18,759 --> 00:33:19,759
你将会取得很多成就

1058
00:33:19,759 --> 00:33:20,099
好的

1059
00:33:20,099 --> 00:33:21,599
感谢大家一如既往地加入我

1060
00:33:21,599 --> 00:33:22,319
非常感谢大家的到来

1061
00:33:22,319 --> 00:33:23,880
如果你想申请乔丹预备股票小组

1062
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,480
获取数千只股票的访问权限

1063
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:26,599
我的私人Discord聊天室

1064
00:33:26,599 --> 00:33:27,779
独家每周视频

1065
00:33:27,779 --> 00:33:28,940
你想让我教你

1066
00:33:28,940 --> 00:33:32,720
所有内容都会教给你 并会将你的钢铁会员卡寄到家

1067
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:33,740
当你加入我们时

1068
00:33:33,740 --> 00:33:34,700
这是私人小组卡

1069
00:33:34,700 --> 00:33:36,679
这就是精美的千X卡

1070
00:33:36,679 --> 00:33:38,638
如果你选择终身加入我们

1071
00:33:38,638 --> 00:33:41,259
我们会寄送黑卡给你

1072
00:33:41,259 --> 00:33:43,819
很少有人拥有这张黑卡对吧

1073
00:33:43,819 --> 00:33:45,539
这是终身会员卡

1074
00:33:45,539 --> 00:33:47,339
衷心祝福 你有一美好的一天

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