你可能已经财务自由了

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但与其在迎学叙事中不可自拔

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不如改善我们自己的生活

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从自身美好而非他人惨境中得到快乐

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所以今天聊一个相反的方向

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那就是中国以及美国各自的自由线到底是多少

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所谓自由线就是财务自由的那条线

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达到这条线后就可以不需要为了钱而工作

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不工作钱也能越花越多

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之前网上有人说美国年入35万美元

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是贫困县

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也有人说中国要一个亿以上才能财务自由

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但这篇主题的内容

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大概率会刷新你对自由线的理解

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并且找到更多财务自由的希望

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一美国自由

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现美国和中国的自由线部分

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将结合自己的实际账单和开支情况

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分享一下

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在两地到底要多少钱

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才可以实现小康至中产级别的财务自由

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这里先分享最近美国的一些账单

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在最近的一个月

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我的电费账单是90.65美元

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在2025年10月初到12月初

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水费为246.16美元

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水费为两个月一节

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在11月中旬到12月中旬

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我家的天然气账单是118.66美元

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之所以天然气消耗大

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是因为无论热水器还是暖气

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都是用天然气的

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到了冬天用量就会显著增加

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近两个月垃圾费为134.35美元

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垃圾费也是每两个月一节

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除了这些日常账单外

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还有一个比较重的开支

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那就是房产税

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2025年

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房产税是1万144点三四美元

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这部分大头用在学校开支上

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一年超过4000美元

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所在县市的基础设施开支也来自于房产税

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我认为房产税的设置是合理的

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因为它花在了业主的权益上

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比如学区

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学校成绩好

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公共区域被打理得干净又漂亮

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除了水电网气垃圾费等账单外

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COFINITY的宽带每个月43美元

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手机套餐每人每月20美元

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在美国期间

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家中3~4口人的情况下

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每周去一次COSTCO买菜

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每次大约200美元买菜

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房屋保险每年大约2000美元

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车险每年大约1500美元

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每个月加油大约150美元

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另外结合我父母退休的情况

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经过奥巴马医疗补助后的银计划

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商业医保是不需要花钱的

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单人全年最高医疗自付额为2400美元

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我自己由于大多数时间在国内

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因此选择国内的职工医保

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如果未来有小孩

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当地公立学区也不错

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不需要花私立学校学费

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那么要在西雅图这样一个

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美国相对较高成本的地方实现小康生活

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平均下来每个月的成本可以大致归总如下

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买菜1000美元

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水电网气150+90加43+70

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等于353美元

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垃圾费68美元

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手机套餐20×3=60美元

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房产税900美元

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房屋保险和汽车保险

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180+140=320美元

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汽油费150美元

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物业费20美元

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上述总计是2871美元

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这是基础开支

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如果每个月下几趟馆子逛街几次

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那就在2870亿美元的基础上

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再加1000至2000美元

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如果每年再新增两次旅游

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那摊在每个月可以再增加1000至2000美元

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因此无论是过得简单一些还是丰富一些

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只要不乱花钱

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即便在西雅图这样的地方

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一个有房无贷家庭

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每月开支范围

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基本落在2871美元至7000美元之间

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取一个大概的平均数4936美元

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一年是5.92万美元

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目前10年期美债利率大概是4.1%

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也就是说

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如果投资无风险的固定收益类资产

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要保证钱不会越用越少

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则需要5.92除以4.1%

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等于144万美元的投资

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若投资权益类资产

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标普500

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过去的长期平均年化回报是10%

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那么至少要有59.2万美元的标普500

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才能保证钱不会越花越少

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而且标普500是有波动的

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不能保证每年增值

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无论是选择国债还是标普500

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上面的账单计算

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是考虑在拥有自住房的情况下进行的

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而自住房又是一笔不小的开支

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我们以独立屋作为生活标准

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西雅图和洛杉矶周边稍好一些的

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独立屋要100万美元以上

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旧金山湾区要200万以上

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美国也有大量城市

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50万美元可以买到很好的独立屋

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我们以西雅图作为参考坐标

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并以标普500作为投资标杆

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要在美国财务自由

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净资产至少需要达到159.2万美元

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即价值100万美元的自住房

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加价值59.2万美元的标普500

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约合1115万人民币

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这对于我们大多数普通人来说

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显然是一笔难以达到的巨款

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在美国这样的高收入高消费的环境下

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自由线是相当高的

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二中国自由县

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中国自由线的计算也基于真实体验

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在中国期间

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我的生活地是老家南昌

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我小时候对于这个城市常常充满嫌弃

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觉得又旧又破

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本地人没素质

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基础设施也糟糕

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但近几年来

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我对老家有了越来越多的好印象

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比如南昌是全国最早的机动车

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不限号出行的大中城市之一

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地铁又新又干净

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2017年就有了山姆会员店

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年轻人也多了不少

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由于全国各个城市的菜价

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水电网气等价格相差不大

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所以不需要分享账单

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大多数朋友也能想到整体的消费水平

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以下是南昌的电价

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水价和燃气价格

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以我家为例

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三人一个月买菜大约3000人民币

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水电网气加起来不会超过1000人民币

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没有垃圾费

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房产税和房屋保险

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车险一年大约5000人民币

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燃油费一个月大约1000人民币

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在有孩子的情况下

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公立学校免学费

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假设一个月下四五趟馆子

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新增不是1000美元

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而是1000人民币

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另外只要愿意

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即便正餐都点外卖

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也不会增加多少开支

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如果一年旅游两次

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全年额外10万的预算

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这样算来

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同样是有房无贷的场景

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一年的基础消费在6.5万人民币

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至17.7万人民币之间

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取平均数12.1万

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12.1万是有房情况下的

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但考虑到中国租售比非常扭曲

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要实现财务自由最优化的策略是尽量不买房

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这样可以腾出资金做更有效的投资

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以南昌这样的城市为例

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4000元可以租到中心城区的三室户型

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加上一开始12.1万的年度预算

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答案是16.9万

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中国资本市场投机性强

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制度不成熟

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硬核公司数量相对较少

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长期难以获得稳定回报

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但不意味着我们不能投资全球优质资产

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美国人能买的标普500

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纳指100

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我们一样可以拥有

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可以做到我们往期内容多次提到的消费

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在中国投资

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在美国趋利避害

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内外兼修

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普通人也要赢两次

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以标普500为参考

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长期平均年化10%的回报

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一年开支16.9万人民币

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那么你需要169万的总资产

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可以实现在南昌这样的省会城市

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钱不会越花越少

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长沙武汉郑州

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南宁等其他城市的自由县基本一致

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如果净资产显著大于169万

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长期看钱会越花越多

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如果按照10年期美债收益率4.1%计算

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一年开支16.9万

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则需要412万人民币

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无论是154万还是412万

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这个自由线都不能说是低

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毕竟中国还有6亿人月入1000

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9亿人月入2000

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只是相对而言比美国低

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自由线低不代表体验会差

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在中国买到的东西包括山姆和COSTCO的食品

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天猫京东上的电器和衣服

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外卖快递

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滴滴美家政按摩这样的人力服务

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以及水电网等公共服务和城市基础设施

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是完全不弱于美国这个发达国家的

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有一回我从南昌东站乘地铁回家

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15站

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17km的里程四远

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这真是让我感到震惊

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因为简单一算

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短途的地铁单位里程成本甚至低于长途的高铁

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而且只要你坐个六七站以上

225
00:07:32,379 --> 00:07:34,579
那么价格只有高铁的一半不到

226
00:07:34,579 --> 00:07:38,089
目前中国高铁的单价是每公里0.5元左右

227
00:07:38,089 --> 00:07:40,550
新干线的1/3至1/2水平

228
00:07:40,550 --> 00:07:43,759
但我这趟价格只有不到0.25元每公里

229
00:07:43,759 --> 00:07:46,560
最近我刷到过本地一些让人印象深刻的房子

230
00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,699
比如下图这个套内面积大概170平

231
00:07:49,699 --> 00:07:51,220
一梯一户的江景房

232
00:07:51,220 --> 00:07:52,490
总价200多万

233
00:07:52,490 --> 00:07:54,910
按3%以上的高租金回报率算

234
00:07:54,910 --> 00:07:55,769
要住这种房

235
00:07:55,769 --> 00:07:57,480
一个月6500元足够

236
00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,980
比前文每月租房预算多了2500

237
00:07:59,980 --> 00:08:02,759
加入全年总开支结果是19.9万

238
00:08:02,759 --> 00:08:04,860
按标普500平均回报计算

239
00:08:04,860 --> 00:08:06,509
总资产199万

240
00:08:06,509 --> 00:08:08,329
达到这种生活水准的自由县

241
00:08:08,329 --> 00:08:09,730
按美债收益率计算

242
00:08:09,730 --> 00:08:11,509
总资产485万

243
00:08:11,509 --> 00:08:12,420
达到自由现

244
00:08:12,420 --> 00:08:13,740
如果做组合配置

245
00:08:13,740 --> 00:08:14,959
大概350万

246
00:08:14,959 --> 00:08:17,160
可以比较稳妥地实现这种自由

247
00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:18,579
想象一下这种生活

248
00:08:18,579 --> 00:08:19,480
一梯一户

249
00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,399
江景大平层千兆宽带一个月15刀

250
00:08:22,399 --> 00:08:23,879
外卖快递送到家门口

251
00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:26,480
山姆品质看齐北美三甲医院

252
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,079
不用预约BT下载电影

253
00:08:28,079 --> 00:08:28,759
无视版权

254
00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,600
油管奈飞4K随便看

255
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:32,500
更重要的是

256
00:08:32,500 --> 00:08:33,419
你不用上班

257
00:08:33,419 --> 00:08:34,419
天天自然醒

258
00:08:34,419 --> 00:08:35,710
钱还越花越多

259
00:08:35,710 --> 00:08:36,450
爽不爽

260
00:08:36,450 --> 00:08:38,110
这是350万净资产

261
00:08:38,110 --> 00:08:41,019
在中国一个二线城市可以享受到的生活

262
00:08:41,019 --> 00:08:42,019
不可否认的是

263
00:08:42,019 --> 00:08:43,679
350万仍是一笔巨款

264
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,500
但放在前几年楼市火爆时

265
00:08:45,500 --> 00:08:47,940
无数买房者中介银行眼里

266
00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:49,759
甚至在现在的知乎小红书上

267
00:08:49,759 --> 00:08:51,529
350万都不叫钱

268
00:08:51,529 --> 00:08:52,870
另外这5年来

269
00:08:52,870 --> 00:08:55,190
全国不知道有多少上了杠杆的普通人

270
00:08:55,190 --> 00:08:57,899
净资产的蒸发量超过了350万

271
00:08:57,899 --> 00:09:00,740
这也说明一个本已经站在自由线以上的人

272
00:09:00,740 --> 00:09:03,899
很可能因为一念之差而瞬间跌入斩杀线

273
00:09:03,899 --> 00:09:05,840
有人会说我在一线城市

274
00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:07,509
所以自由线要高很多

275
00:09:07,509 --> 00:09:08,870
但也可以思考一下

276
00:09:08,870 --> 00:09:10,990
你一个外地人已经财务自由了

277
00:09:10,990 --> 00:09:12,360
还带一线城市干嘛

278
00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:13,659
又说要结婚生娃

279
00:09:13,659 --> 00:09:14,960
是婚姻法哪条写了

280
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:16,600
结婚必须买房还是补习班

281
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,360
拿枪指着你逼你卷娃了

282
00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:20,480
绝大多数人终其一生无法自由

283
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:21,440
不是能力不足

284
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:22,649
而是纯自找的

285
00:09:22,649 --> 00:09:24,610
所以财务自由很难吗

286
00:09:24,610 --> 00:09:25,570
说难很难

287
00:09:25,570 --> 00:09:26,849
说不难也不难

288
00:09:26,849 --> 00:09:28,788
至少他不需要我们996

289
00:09:28,788 --> 00:09:30,548
不需要我们背30年房贷

290
00:09:30,548 --> 00:09:32,548
只需要我们做出正确的选择

291
00:09:32,548 --> 00:09:34,190
选择远远大于努力

292
00:09:34,190 --> 00:09:35,350
一旦选择对了

293
00:09:35,350 --> 00:09:37,759
一切自然会越来越好

294
00:09:37,759 --> 00:09:40,559
三财务自由的关键

295
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:42,200
经历了过去几年

296
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,259
以房价为代表的资产价格缩水

297
00:09:44,259 --> 00:09:47,269
以及网贷电诈等等多不胜数的陷阱

298
00:09:47,269 --> 00:09:48,889
我们应该看清一个道理

299
00:09:48,889 --> 00:09:50,149
正常的生活消费

300
00:09:50,149 --> 00:09:53,360
是不可能把一个中产或富裕家庭给花穷的

301
00:09:55,100 --> 00:09:56,779
无一不是踩坑导致的

302
00:09:56,779 --> 00:09:58,919
所以要在中国实现财务自由

303
00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:00,919
最重要的一点就是不要踩坑

304
00:10:00,919 --> 00:10:02,340
不要持有垃圾资产

305
00:10:02,340 --> 00:10:03,320
不要瞎折腾

306
00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:04,080
不要借债

307
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,460
也不要给别人借钱

308
00:10:05,460 --> 00:10:06,940
只要坚守这些原则

309
00:10:06,940 --> 00:10:08,899
财务自由就实现了一半

310
00:10:08,899 --> 00:10:11,019
人一生的财富获取不是均匀的

311
00:10:11,019 --> 00:10:13,139
分布在工作年龄段内的普通人

312
00:10:13,139 --> 00:10:16,490
赚钱的黄金时长大概也就五到10年甚至更短

313
00:10:16,490 --> 00:10:19,710
这段时间积累的财富守住了就是守住了

314
00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:21,639
败掉了也很难再赚回来了

315
00:10:21,639 --> 00:10:24,539
我们普通人要在这样一个遍地是陷阱的社会

316
00:10:24,539 --> 00:10:25,799
做到不踩坑不败

317
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:27,159
财富已不简单

318
00:10:27,159 --> 00:10:29,000
如果在守住财富的基础上

319
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,600
能够实现复利式的增值

320
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,519
那你就是百里挑一的存在

321
00:10:32,519 --> 00:10:34,120
时间已经来到2026

322
00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,379
在过去的这些年里

323
00:10:35,379 --> 00:10:37,100
我们经历了一个重要的转折点

324
00:10:37,100 --> 00:10:38,860
那就是无数城市中产

325
00:10:38,860 --> 00:10:41,440
在不知不觉中错过了财务自由的机会

326
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,320
在房价不断上涨的年份里

327
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:44,019
100万

328
00:10:44,019 --> 00:10:46,980
200万在互联网上都不被当成是一笔大钱

329
00:10:46,980 --> 00:10:48,899
尽管绝大多数参与讨论的人

330
00:10:48,899 --> 00:10:50,340
自己一年要存50万

331
00:10:50,340 --> 00:10:51,389
比登天还难

332
00:10:51,389 --> 00:10:53,470
还有人拿中房美股日债搞类比

333
00:10:53,470 --> 00:10:54,909
说是全球三大泡沫

334
00:10:54,909 --> 00:10:56,570
本质是想给自己壮胆

335
00:10:56,570 --> 00:10:58,190
但现在市场形势逆转

336
00:10:58,190 --> 00:10:59,309
后悔也晚了

337
00:10:59,309 --> 00:11:00,610
口罩前的2019

338
00:11:00,610 --> 00:11:02,169
是不是感觉还在昨天

339
00:11:02,169 --> 00:11:03,769
就在转瞬即逝的几年里

340
00:11:03,769 --> 00:11:04,929
QQQ4倍多

341
00:11:04,929 --> 00:11:05,990
微软四倍多

342
00:11:05,990 --> 00:11:06,450
苹果

343
00:11:06,450 --> 00:11:07,578
谷歌六倍多

344
00:11:07,578 --> 00:11:10,739
英伟达更是在3年多时间里更是飙升17倍

345
00:11:10,739 --> 00:11:12,470
这都是实现自由的机会啊

346
00:11:12,470 --> 00:11:14,690
另外财务自由不是存量概念

347
00:11:14,690 --> 00:11:15,909
而是流量概念

348
00:11:15,909 --> 00:11:16,870
恰好我们中国

349
00:11:16,870 --> 00:11:19,070
大多数中产和富人的资产总量很高

350
00:11:19,070 --> 00:11:22,068
但资产质量和被动现金流却非常糟糕

351
00:11:22,068 --> 00:11:23,629
我们以房产为锚定

352
00:11:23,629 --> 00:11:25,849
比如同样有两个身价2000万的人

353
00:11:25,849 --> 00:11:29,288
A和BA的资产构成是两套北上广深住宅

354
00:11:29,288 --> 00:11:30,369
除了自住一套外

355
00:11:30,369 --> 00:11:31,340
另一套出租

356
00:11:31,340 --> 00:11:32,659
月收入1.2万

357
00:11:32,659 --> 00:11:34,220
小康可以高端一些

358
00:11:34,220 --> 00:11:35,179
生活做不到

359
00:11:35,179 --> 00:11:38,169
然后但币在境内租房逃离一线城市

360
00:11:38,169 --> 00:11:40,370
每个月花1万住一个豪宅

361
00:11:40,370 --> 00:11:42,429
然后2000万全在海外出租

362
00:11:42,429 --> 00:11:43,490
比正常的地方

363
00:11:43,490 --> 00:11:46,529
每个月扣除所有持有成本后的租金收入

364
00:11:46,529 --> 00:11:47,370
五至6万

365
00:11:47,370 --> 00:11:48,318
轻轻松松

366
00:11:48,318 --> 00:11:49,239
这个现金流

367
00:11:49,239 --> 00:11:51,980
在中国是可以达到相当自由的状态的

368
00:11:51,980 --> 00:11:54,120
所以我们看到A和B资产一样

369
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,820
生活状态完全不一样

370
00:11:55,820 --> 00:11:57,220
这是现金流的差异

371
00:11:57,220 --> 00:11:59,490
也是选择大于努力的典型案例

372
00:11:59,490 --> 00:12:01,649
在几年前这样的对比更极端

373
00:12:01,649 --> 00:12:03,110
因为当时房价更高

374
00:12:03,110 --> 00:12:04,859
租售比内外差别更大

375
00:12:04,859 --> 00:12:07,178
所有热点城市业主从未有过那样

376
00:12:07,178 --> 00:12:08,979
快速实现财务自由的机会

377
00:12:08,979 --> 00:12:12,259
当时一套北京破旧的学区房可以换洛杉矶

378
00:12:12,259 --> 00:12:13,529
几套漂亮的独立屋

379
00:12:13,529 --> 00:12:15,730
也可以换10万股以上的英伟达

380
00:12:15,730 --> 00:12:17,649
一个人一旦踩到某个大坑

381
00:12:17,649 --> 00:12:20,490
那么资产湮灭的速度是远快于想象的

382
00:12:20,490 --> 00:12:21,590
当反应过来时

383
00:12:21,590 --> 00:12:23,129
曾经高身价的那些人

384
00:12:23,129 --> 00:12:25,529
已经失去了再做一次选择的权利

385
00:12:25,529 --> 00:12:28,429
不信就看看某些曾经大牌的香港明星

386
00:12:28,429 --> 00:12:31,129
现在退休年纪跑到抖音带货开课

387
00:12:31,129 --> 00:12:32,529
想想看是为什么

388
00:12:32,529 --> 00:12:34,570
然而社会的残酷之处在于

389
00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:37,240
他总是会PUA大多数人不断踩坑

390
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,700
以至于一个人终其一生的每个阶段

391
00:12:39,700 --> 00:12:41,860
某些社会设定好的流程或诱惑

392
00:12:41,860 --> 00:12:44,609
都会把他的财务状况瞬间打回原形

393
00:12:44,609 --> 00:12:45,969
所以后来我开始明白

394
00:12:45,969 --> 00:12:47,749
大多数人一定是要上当的

395
00:12:47,749 --> 00:12:49,009
你就算想去帮他们

396
00:12:49,009 --> 00:12:50,129
也是于事无补

397
00:12:50,129 --> 00:12:51,549
这点我体会太深

398
00:12:51,549 --> 00:12:53,889
比如我至少从2017年开始

399
00:12:53,889 --> 00:12:55,769
通过N个账号的无数往期内容

400
00:12:55,769 --> 00:12:57,830
尽全力劝退读者的买房冲动

401
00:12:57,830 --> 00:12:59,590
然后还从QQQ讲到微软

402
00:12:59,590 --> 00:12:59,990
英伟达

403
00:12:59,990 --> 00:13:00,610
台积电

404
00:13:00,610 --> 00:13:01,289
即使这样

405
00:13:01,289 --> 00:13:03,450
还是遭遇过许多质疑甚至谩骂举报

406
00:13:03,450 --> 00:13:05,309
但无论读者是开心还是难过

407
00:13:05,309 --> 00:13:07,370
市场运行有其客观规律

408
00:13:07,370 --> 00:13:08,590
后来我想明白了

409
00:13:08,590 --> 00:13:09,529
社会要运转

410
00:13:09,529 --> 00:13:10,629
生产力要提高

411
00:13:10,629 --> 00:13:13,509
必然要让绝大多数人为了生计而疲于奔命

412
00:13:13,509 --> 00:13:16,529
必然要让绝大多数人无法实现财务自由

413
00:13:16,529 --> 00:13:18,289
所以放下助人情结

414
00:13:18,289 --> 00:13:19,490
尊重他人命运

415
00:13:19,490 --> 00:13:22,299
可能才是尊重社会规律的做法吧

416
00:13:22,620 --> 00:13:25,078
四另一面

417
00:13:25,399 --> 00:13:26,379
我们前文说

418
00:13:26,379 --> 00:13:28,999
中国自由线更容易达到是建立在同一个人

419
00:13:28,999 --> 00:13:30,360
同一个收入基础上的

420
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,960
并没有考虑到发达国家普通人更高的收入

421
00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:34,039
对于大多数来说

422
00:13:34,039 --> 00:13:36,779
做不到在美国工作的同时在中国花钱

423
00:13:36,779 --> 00:13:40,100
因此上述对比仅适合正在积极做财务规划

424
00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:41,940
或是已经有一笔存量财富

425
00:13:41,940 --> 00:13:44,480
并希望早日财务自由的人进行参考

426
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:45,679
对于无数人来说

427
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:46,720
在美国赚钱

428
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,460
美国花和在中国赚钱

429
00:13:48,460 --> 00:13:49,179
中国花

430
00:13:49,179 --> 00:13:50,799
前者可能更容易达到自由

431
00:13:50,799 --> 00:13:51,870
现原因是

432
00:13:51,870 --> 00:13:53,590
尽管美国的自由县高得多

433
00:13:53,590 --> 00:13:56,210
但美国普通人的收入也比我们高得多

434
00:13:56,210 --> 00:13:58,828
特别是一些看上去并不起眼的普通岗位

435
00:13:58,828 --> 00:14:02,129
比如不久前我刷到在美国开公交车的国人同胞

436
00:14:02,129 --> 00:14:02,649
表示

437
00:14:02,649 --> 00:14:03,788
在洛杉矶开两周

438
00:14:03,788 --> 00:14:06,220
公交车收入就达到7200美元

439
00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:08,299
我们在中国更加容易达到自由线

440
00:14:08,299 --> 00:14:11,200
很大程度也是建立在广大同胞辛勤工作

441
00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:12,919
却收入低下的基础之上

442
00:14:12,919 --> 00:14:15,100
所以如果你有幸实现了财务自由

443
00:14:15,100 --> 00:14:16,460
在享受生活的同时

444
00:14:16,460 --> 00:14:18,080
也应珍惜现有生活

445
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,960
并对那些为我们提供物美价廉的商品与服务的

446
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,409
同胞们心怀感恩之心

447
00:14:23,889 --> 00:14:25,429
如果你喜欢本期视频

448
00:14:25,429 --> 00:14:26,850
希望可以点赞关注

449
00:14:26,850 --> 00:14:27,570
支持一波

450
00:14:27,570 --> 00:14:29,879
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