【Ross Cameron - Warrior Trading】SpaceX打新必读：开盘抢不抢？何时能抄底？

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最近怎么样

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大家还好吧

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在今天的节目中

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我将和大家分享你需要了解的一切

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为SpaceX IPO做准备

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这将是历史上规模最大的IPO

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对此毫无疑问

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将会非常波动

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观看和交易都将令人兴奋

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无论你是否考虑交易

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买卖操作

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积极进行

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日内

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在IPO当天交易

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或IPO后的几天几周

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或者考虑未来十年十五年的SpaceX投资

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比如你可能后悔没在特斯拉身上下注

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还有英伟达等公司

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我将和大家分享

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我认为在交易或投资SpaceX前必须考虑的重要事项

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SpaceX不是普通公司

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我说的

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它确实不是

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事实上

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IPO后几周内可能成为全球最大公司

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全球最大上市公司

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这简直难以置信

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有可能超越英伟达

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是否实现

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取决于后续几天几周的价格走势

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IPO后初期

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由于此次IPO的结构设计

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更可能出现强劲势头

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并引发大幅逼空

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IPO初期后

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我将解释原因

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随着课程开始

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好的

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这是一堂课

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我在YouTube上有很多教学视频

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向社区成员传授视频课程

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在

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在战士交易平台

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初次观看的朋友们

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我简单自我介绍

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我叫罗斯·卡梅隆

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这是我的屏幕

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如屏幕共享所示

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我们有演示文稿

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我们将进入SEC文件

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我的软件在后面

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就在这里

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正在查看特斯拉

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我这边有英伟达

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我是全职交易员

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我在2021年用超过25年的时间开设了第一个账户

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我最出名的可能是将一个账户

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从不到600美元增值到超过2000万美元利润

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我不想假设我的结果是典型，因为它们不是

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但我想让你知道

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你不是在听新闻里那个没有下注的评论员

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谁没有任何利益关联

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我每天都在实际交易

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我将交易SpaceX的IPO

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我可能也会投资它

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这是我们必须要考虑的

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我将带你了解我的思考方式

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在这个课程中

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好的

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SpaceX刚刚提交了S-1文件

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这是赋予他们发行新证券权利的注册文件

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所以任何公司进行IPO都必须提交S-1

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S-1必须遵循特定格式

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这让投资者能轻松比较不同S-1文件

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现在SpaceX在这一点上略有不同

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他们在第3页展示

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一艘火箭

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嗯

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第4页

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另一艘火箭

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第5页

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一张星链的美丽图片

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我们一定会详细讨论

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这非常色彩丰富

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这些照片非常精美

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出自优秀摄影师之手

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制作方做得很好

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不同于SEC常规文件

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但SpaceX和马斯克做事方式不同

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这肯定会吸引人们注意

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可能会被讨论一番

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但无论如何你得跳过所有图片

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然后看到目录内容

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详细列出公司面临的风险因素

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他们披露了待审诉讼

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类似事项

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并带你了解公司财务状况

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并介绍公司股权结构及最大股东

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这并不令人意外

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埃隆·马斯克持股4.2%

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IPO后将成为第四大股东

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我们将完全掌控董事会所有投票权

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由于持有额外股份

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这些股份拥有更多投票权

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因此他完全掌控这家公司

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他将不会被允许

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但他不会让自己陷入无法做最终决定的境地

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所有这些都需要披露

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作为投资者需要了解这一点

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这种控制权非常集中

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几乎由一个人掌控

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我们现在继续看这个演示文稿

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因为我有很多内容要分享

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我想高效利用时间

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我可能会在后续系列中详细讲解

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随着IPO临近

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获得更多信息后

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这将奠定史上最大IPO的基础

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所有交易者都会关注此事

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包括我在内

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我们有两种观点

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关于SpaceX的故事

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一方面

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投资者通常关注的基本面

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这些很重要

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帮助我们理解

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并支撑当前IPO定价

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然后是技术面，这是活跃交易者关注的重点

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正如我之前提到的

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此次IPO的结构设计

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包含技术要素

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正是这一点

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赋予其非凡潜力

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这是我非常期待的

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总体来看，S-1文件披露了2025年营收

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及2026年第一季度数据

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SpaceX去年总收入达187亿美元

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并实现净亏损49亿美元

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约合49亿美元

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业务分板块拆解

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星链业务贡献114亿美元营收

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占SpaceX总收入61%

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实现利润442亿美元

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这确实令人兴奋

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这已成为他们的核心业务

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这是他们的现金奶牛

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持续产生大量现金流

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现在

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他们将全部资金投入太空领域

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和人工智能

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这是一个战略选择

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你可以选择拿现金

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将现金存入资产负债表

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当然可以重新投资

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但他们正在公司内部再投资

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因为他们相信能比其他投资更好地利用这笔资金

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这可能确实如此

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但最终结果是公司正在亏损

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事实上自成立以来已亏损超三十亿美元

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因此这家公司目前的交易价格

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嗯在

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你知道在

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它不会有市盈率

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因为它没有正向收益

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当我们看像英伟达这样的公司

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我们将以英伟达作为对比

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目前其市盈率约为三十三倍

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所以当你考虑要投资的公司时

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我常想如果我要买下整个公司

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虽然我负担不起

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但假如我要买下整个公司

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需要多久才能还清这笔投资

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通常你会支付溢价

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当你收购一家公司时

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它已建立稳固地位

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拥有品牌价值

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以及其他一切优势，因此在英伟达案例中可能支付三十三倍市盈率

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四十倍市盈率

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具体情况而定

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然后计算

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好的

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可能需要三十三到四十年还清整个公司

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但你买入了

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然后思考

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但如果我能提升收益

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使公司更高效

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就能更快还清债务

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没错，以SpaceX为例

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这有点复杂

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目前星链业务收入达十一亿四千万美元

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年利润四亿美元

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且星链尚未完全规模化

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星链仍有巨大增长空间

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我本人使用星链

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我有三个星链订阅

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安装在我的车上

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安装在我的斯泰兰蒂斯厢式货车

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主要用于

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带孩子们去野外旅行时在加拿大和科罗拉多等地

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在所有地方星链表现卓越

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星链的潜在市场规模非常巨大

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因为星链将会

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我坚信星链将成为全球领先的互联网服务提供商

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因此整个潜在市场覆盖全球所有人，规模巨大

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所以星链现在仍有很大的发展空间

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他们拥有丰厚的利润

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作为一项业务本身，这绝对值得我投资

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但他们将所有利润

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而不是保留并以股息形式返还给股东

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或者类似的做法

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现在他们正将利润投入太空和人工智能领域

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人工智能目前是SpaceX最不赚钱的部门

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确实

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正在让他们亏损大量资金

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当我们谈论星链是最成功的部门时

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必须承认存在风险，这种风险

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在于不同政府执政时期

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现在记住

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这个政府可能忽略

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毫无疑问星链可能面临反垄断调查风险

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垄断行为

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这必然会发生

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这就是投资电信公司的风险

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你投资威瑞森或AT&T

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这些公司本质上拥有

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一种受监管且获政府批准的垄断地位

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当你搬到一个城镇时

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只能选择康卡斯特

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或Xfinity之类的运营商

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你知道的

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就是这样

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这是城镇的服务提供商

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他们拥有垄断地位

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但政府授权的垄断企业必须

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00:09:31,059 --> 00:09:34,440
将利润作为股息返还股东

236
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,679
拥有此类垄断会带来诸多限制

237
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:38,210
本质上拥有垄断地位

238
00:09:38,210 --> 00:09:40,590
而SpaceX作为

239
00:09:40,590 --> 00:09:41,250
世界最大企业之一

240
00:09:41,250 --> 00:09:45,269
毫无疑问将成为监管目标

241
00:09:45,269 --> 00:09:46,409
事实上已经如此

242
00:09:46,409 --> 00:09:48,009
但这将持续下去

243
00:09:48,009 --> 00:09:50,070
在更严格的监管下会更糟

244
00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:50,850
嗯

245
00:09:50,850 --> 00:09:53,009
这里应该值十亿美元

246
00:09:53,009 --> 00:09:55,529
在更严格的监管下会更糟

247
00:09:55,529 --> 00:09:56,629
在不同政府执政时

248
00:09:56,629 --> 00:09:58,169
这是需要警惕的风险

249
00:09:58,169 --> 00:09:59,929
但目前我们清楚这一点

250
00:09:59,929 --> 00:10:02,330
星链业务的利润正在用于太空领域

251
00:10:02,330 --> 00:10:03,909
以及2025年人工智能

252
00:10:03,909 --> 00:10:05,289
我成了最大的输家

253
00:10:05,289 --> 00:10:07,190
然而今年早些时候

254
00:10:07,190 --> 00:10:12,639
SpaceX宣布将在合同中每年获得150亿美元收入

255
00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:14,639
来自Anthropic的合同

256
00:10:14,639 --> 00:10:19,120
这将大幅增加公司2026年人工智能领域的营收

257
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:20,570
至少是毛收入部分

258
00:10:20,570 --> 00:10:22,289
所以第一季度

259
00:10:22,289 --> 00:10:24,529
2026年Q1这份S-1文件

260
00:10:24,529 --> 00:10:27,448
还披露了第一季度的营收情况

261
00:10:27,448 --> 00:10:30,769
这让我们对财务状况有了深入了解

262
00:10:30,769 --> 00:10:32,929
公司的财务状况当然

263
00:10:32,929 --> 00:10:36,090
当然还有一些很棒的照片

264
00:10:36,090 --> 00:10:37,460
火箭的图片

265
00:10:37,460 --> 00:10:38,779
非常酷

266
00:10:38,779 --> 00:10:39,580
好的

267
00:10:39,580 --> 00:10:43,509
所以2026年星链连接业务

268
00:10:43,509 --> 00:10:45,389
营收32亿美元

269
00:10:45,389 --> 00:10:48,990
有望实现同比增长

270
00:10:48,990 --> 00:10:51,340
利润达19亿美元

271
00:10:51,340 --> 00:10:51,759
好的

272
00:10:51,759 --> 00:10:53,950
太空业务表现良好

273
00:10:53,950 --> 00:10:56,330
亏损6亿美元

274
00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:56,809
好的

275
00:10:56,809 --> 00:11:01,629
目前仍在亏损 人工智能业务已获8亿美元营收

276
00:11:01,629 --> 00:11:04,779
并且出现大幅亏损

277
00:11:04,779 --> 00:11:11,429
第一季度他们合并总收入为469亿美元

278
00:11:11,429 --> 00:11:18,340
净运营亏损42.7亿美元

279
00:11:18,340 --> 00:11:29,149
这显示第一季度净亏损相比2025年全年有所扩大

280
00:11:29,149 --> 00:11:34,169
自成立以来累计亏损超300亿美元

281
00:11:34,169 --> 00:11:37,309
这是一家持续亏损的公司

282
00:11:37,309 --> 00:11:38,450
正如大家所知

283
00:11:38,450 --> 00:11:39,710
我经常进行投资

284
00:11:39,710 --> 00:11:40,610
我不再投资

285
00:11:40,610 --> 00:11:42,350
我经常积极交易

286
00:11:42,350 --> 00:11:43,610
生物科技公司

287
00:11:43,610 --> 00:11:45,110
生物科技公司常亏损

288
00:11:45,110 --> 00:11:47,159
直到

289
00:11:47,159 --> 00:11:50,200
并将所筹资金全部投入研发

290
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,970
就像SpaceX在太空和人工智能领域所做的

291
00:11:52,970 --> 00:11:55,570
然后突然间

292
00:11:55,570 --> 00:11:56,970
就像雷击般

293
00:11:56,970 --> 00:11:59,399
他们就有了巨大价值

294
00:11:59,399 --> 00:12:00,990
说实话

295
00:12:00,990 --> 00:12:03,870
SpaceX已经证明了这一点

296
00:12:03,870 --> 00:12:05,710
通过他们的发射任务

297
00:12:05,710 --> 00:12:06,289
已经实现

298
00:12:06,289 --> 00:12:09,190
这是无人能及的成就

299
00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:09,950
你知道的

300
00:12:09,950 --> 00:12:10,750
NASA

301
00:12:10,750 --> 00:12:11,450
其他政府机构

302
00:12:11,450 --> 00:12:12,110
中国

303
00:12:12,110 --> 00:12:12,750
俄罗斯

304
00:12:12,750 --> 00:12:14,110
没有人能完成这个

305
00:12:14,110 --> 00:12:16,789
但他们成功完成了发射

306
00:12:16,789 --> 00:12:17,309
着陆

307
00:12:17,309 --> 00:12:18,850
火箭的重复使用

308
00:12:18,850 --> 00:12:19,509
难以置信

309
00:12:19,509 --> 00:12:21,318
他们用星链做到了

310
00:12:21,318 --> 00:12:24,678
你们中很多人还记得Hughes网络吗

311
00:12:24,678 --> 00:12:24,999
比如

312
00:12:24,999 --> 00:12:26,990
我不太记得早年的2000年代

313
00:12:26,990 --> 00:12:27,990
但你知道的

314
00:12:27,990 --> 00:12:29,649
如果你住在森林里

315
00:12:29,649 --> 00:12:31,970
没有固定线路

316
00:12:31,970 --> 00:12:35,859
比如真正的Verizon电话线或有线电视线

317
00:12:35,859 --> 00:12:37,139
无法上网

318
00:12:37,139 --> 00:12:40,149
除非使用Hughes网络

319
00:12:40,149 --> 00:12:42,169
那是卫星互联网，质量极差

320
00:12:42,169 --> 00:12:44,190
在Hughes网络上交易根本不可能

321
00:12:44,190 --> 00:12:46,110
当星链首次推出时

322
00:12:46,110 --> 00:12:47,230
我非常怀疑

323
00:12:47,230 --> 00:12:47,669
我说

324
00:12:47,669 --> 00:12:50,178
我清楚记得Hughes网络是什么样子

325
00:12:50,178 --> 00:12:53,460
我不会用星链，结果却大吃一惊

326
00:12:53,460 --> 00:12:57,818
事实上我居住地的手机信号极差

327
00:12:57,818 --> 00:13:01,099
所以我把星链迷你终端装在车顶

328
00:13:01,099 --> 00:13:02,938
插在点烟器上

329
00:13:02,938 --> 00:13:05,139
现在我可以随时随地通话

330
00:13:05,139 --> 00:13:08,250
如果我在荒郊野外抛锚

331
00:13:08,250 --> 00:13:10,309
比如在峡谷公路

332
00:13:11,350 --> 00:13:13,570
不用担心被困在那里

333
00:13:13,570 --> 00:13:18,330
现在星链已入驻联合航空

334
00:13:18,330 --> 00:13:21,590
每次坐飞机时有多烦心

335
00:13:21,590 --> 00:13:25,029
比如达美航班或美联航

336
00:13:25,029 --> 00:13:27,029
全程没有网络

337
00:13:27,029 --> 00:13:29,169
这周末我要坐飞机

338
00:13:29,169 --> 00:13:32,759
我估计会没网无法工作

339
00:13:32,759 --> 00:13:33,918
因为我没坐联合航空

340
00:13:33,918 --> 00:13:36,470
在这个时代实在令人恼火

341
00:13:36,470 --> 00:13:40,519
星链的潜在市场巨大

342
00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:42,200
所以表现很好

343
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,440
但公司其他部门现在陷入困境

344
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:46,480
做个对比

345
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:47,649
看看英伟达

346
00:13:47,649 --> 00:13:51,730
英伟达去年营收1300亿美元

347
00:13:51,730 --> 00:13:54,470
对比SpaceX的180亿美元

348
00:13:54,470 --> 00:13:57,850
净利润720亿美元

349
00:13:57,850 --> 00:13:59,750
当前市值达5万亿美元

350
00:13:59,750 --> 00:14:00,710
三千亿美元

351
00:14:00,710 --> 00:14:02,330
他们是全球最大的公司

352
00:14:02,330 --> 00:14:04,429
他们的市盈率是三三

353
00:14:04,429 --> 00:14:05,269
他们拥有两个

354
00:14:05,269 --> 00:14:06,990
流通股四亿股

355
00:14:06,990 --> 00:14:08,710
而流通盘约为二十

356
00:14:08,710 --> 00:14:09,210
三点

357
00:14:09,210 --> 00:14:09,429
二

358
00:14:09,429 --> 00:14:10,269
四亿股流通股

359
00:14:10,269 --> 00:14:12,210
股价每股两百二十美元

360
00:14:12,210 --> 00:14:13,269
这是针对英伟达的

361
00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:14,509
现在我们将回到这个话题

362
00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:16,309
请记住这一点

363
00:14:16,309 --> 00:14:18,529
SpaceX的营收约两两

364
00:14:18,529 --> 00:14:21,350
相当于英伟达的营收对吧

365
00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:21,629
他们

366
00:14:21,629 --> 00:14:21,909
他们

367
00:14:21,909 --> 00:14:22,309
你知道的

368
00:14:22,309 --> 00:14:22,940
他们

369
00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:26,179
他们大约占百分之二十所以

370
00:14:26,179 --> 00:14:31,789
如果你将SpaceX视为英伟达的迷你版

371
00:14:31,789 --> 00:14:34,490
那么其市值应该约为

372
00:14:34,490 --> 00:14:35,070
你知道的

373
00:14:35,070 --> 00:14:36,649
英伟达的五分之一

374
00:14:36,649 --> 00:14:39,389
流通盘也是英伟达的五分之一

375
00:14:39,389 --> 00:14:41,429
股价也应约为英伟达的五分之一

376
00:14:41,429 --> 00:14:46,078
没错，五亿股流通盘和每股五十美元的价格

377
00:14:46,078 --> 00:14:48,979
但这建立在相同营收基础上

378
00:14:48,979 --> 00:14:49,438
那两

379
00:14:49,438 --> 00:14:50,599
两倍营收

380
00:14:50,599 --> 00:14:54,940
同时保持相同的利润率

381
00:14:54,940 --> 00:14:57,059
但SpaceX尚未盈利

382
00:14:57,059 --> 00:14:58,820
他们确实有盈利部门

383
00:14:58,820 --> 00:14:59,440
但整体而言

384
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:00,700
尚未盈利

385
00:15:00,700 --> 00:15:05,279
从投资公司未来现金流的角度

386
00:15:05,279 --> 00:15:10,039
你无法获得每年的净利润

387
00:15:10,039 --> 00:15:12,539
因此SpaceX的实际价值

388
00:15:12,539 --> 00:15:15,129
估算会更低

389
00:15:15,129 --> 00:15:17,789
如果使用传统方法

390
00:15:17,789 --> 00:15:22,909
显然人们并非仅因现有业务投资SpaceX

391
00:15:22,909 --> 00:15:24,190
并非说

392
00:15:24,190 --> 00:15:25,970
现有业务不值得关注

393
00:15:25,970 --> 00:15:29,509
而是因为星链的未来潜力

394
00:15:29,509 --> 00:15:32,379
成为全球最大互联网服务商

395
00:15:32,379 --> 00:15:36,039
太空与人工智能的未来潜力

396
00:15:36,039 --> 00:15:42,120
以及持有马斯克当前项目的股份

397
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:43,200
他有时

398
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,299
颇具争议

399
00:15:45,299 --> 00:15:46,679
这可能影响他的事业

400
00:15:46,679 --> 00:15:51,000
正如我们在2020、2024和2025年看到的特斯拉案例

401
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:52,779
人们正在焚烧特斯拉

402
00:15:52,779 --> 00:15:53,240
嗯

403
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:54,159
你知道那些展厅

404
00:15:54,159 --> 00:15:54,919
或者类似的情况

405
00:15:54,919 --> 00:15:56,179
这相当疯狂

406
00:15:56,179 --> 00:15:58,440
这导致了股价下跌

407
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,480
你知道他收购推特的参与

408
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:02,859
这损害了特斯拉

409
00:16:02,859 --> 00:16:04,519
所以我们知道他是个

410
00:16:04,519 --> 00:16:06,399
他可能是个不确定因素

411
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:11,850
但他同样展现出极高的生产力水平

412
00:16:11,850 --> 00:16:16,960
他在成果产出方面堪称顶尖

413
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,159
这就是人们所看重的

414
00:16:19,159 --> 00:16:20,370
他们在买入

415
00:16:20,370 --> 00:16:21,090
他们在持续买入

416
00:16:21,090 --> 00:16:24,409
他们正在投资马斯克

417
00:16:24,409 --> 00:16:26,409
现在来看太空探索技术公司

418
00:16:26,409 --> 00:16:28,470
再次强调公司有180亿美元

419
00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:30,169
营收达70亿美元

420
00:16:30,169 --> 00:16:31,629
净亏损49.4亿美元

421
00:16:31,629 --> 00:16:34,328
但我们知道这完全可能改变

422
00:16:34,328 --> 00:16:39,688
如果他们决定不再投入其他业务领域

423
00:16:39,688 --> 00:16:45,889
但他们需要这样做以实现预期的显著增长

424
00:16:45,889 --> 00:16:47,450
目前来看

425
00:16:47,450 --> 00:16:49,460
市值估算

426
00:16:49,460 --> 00:16:53,379
你可以从S-1文件中看到介于1750亿

427
00:16:53,379 --> 00:16:55,328
到2000亿美元之间

428
00:16:55,328 --> 00:16:57,688
太空探索技术的市盈率未定义

429
00:16:57,688 --> 00:16:58,769
由于持续亏损

430
00:16:58,769 --> 00:17:03,730
流通股约为150亿股

431
00:17:03,730 --> 00:17:05,049
并发行量

432
00:17:05,049 --> 00:17:10,308
即本次IPO拟发行的股票数量

433
00:17:10,308 --> 00:17:13,679
在5.5亿至6.5亿股之间

434
00:17:13,679 --> 00:17:16,999
确切发行股数仍待确定

435
00:17:16,999 --> 00:17:21,150
这里对交易员来说变得有趣了

436
00:17:21,150 --> 00:17:23,289
让我们再看这个数字一秒

437
00:17:23,289 --> 00:17:27,230
他们计划募集资金750-800亿美元

438
00:17:27,230 --> 00:17:31,470
更高的IPO定价意味着更少发行股数

439
00:17:31,470 --> 00:17:34,190
他们希望以最高价格发行

440
00:17:34,190 --> 00:17:36,349
从而减少发行股数

441
00:17:36,349 --> 00:17:41,529
这样公司通过每股获得的发行价

442
00:17:41,529 --> 00:17:43,049
扣除承销费用后

443
00:17:43,049 --> 00:17:48,348
公司将直接向承销商出售股票

444
00:17:48,348 --> 00:17:50,368
高盛正在购买这些股票

445
00:17:50,368 --> 00:17:52,130
高盛接手股票后

446
00:17:52,130 --> 00:17:57,869
再转售给机构和散户投资者

447
00:17:57,869 --> 00:18:00,990
散户将获得

448
00:18:00,990 --> 00:18:04,009
浮动股的30%

449
00:18:04,009 --> 00:18:05,329
这是一个非常高比例

450
00:18:05,329 --> 00:18:07,190
我认为这比平均水平高五到六倍

451
00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:08,690
通常就像你们可能知道的那样

452
00:18:08,690 --> 00:18:11,150
零售交易者在IPO中几乎得不到任何股份

453
00:18:11,150 --> 00:18:12,869
你想要参与IPO

454
00:18:13,470 --> 00:18:14,809
这就是你的倒霉之处

455
00:18:14,809 --> 00:18:16,369
你不是机构交易者

456
00:18:16,369 --> 00:18:21,039
IPO几乎总是将大部分股份留给机构大资金

457
00:18:21,039 --> 00:18:24,059
与SpaceX不同，这并非事实

458
00:18:24,059 --> 00:18:24,900
SpaceX

459
00:18:24,900 --> 00:18:27,140
IPO特别要求

460
00:18:27,140 --> 00:18:30,259
浮盘中的30%股份将保留给零售交易者

461
00:18:30,259 --> 00:18:33,930
这意味着当你在罗宾汉或嘉信理财账户中

462
00:18:33,930 --> 00:18:35,730
申请参与IPO配售

463
00:18:35,730 --> 00:18:37,589
你可能能获得一些股份

464
00:18:37,589 --> 00:18:37,710
现在

465
00:18:37,710 --> 00:18:39,849
需求将会极高

466
00:18:39,849 --> 00:18:41,529
你实际能获得多少股份

467
00:18:41,529 --> 00:18:42,650
你可能会说我要一千股

468
00:18:42,650 --> 00:18:43,900
你可能只能得到十股

469
00:18:43,900 --> 00:18:45,079
很难确定

470
00:18:45,079 --> 00:18:46,980
但最终你会

471
00:18:46,980 --> 00:18:48,680
股份将被分配

472
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:49,740
无论是否获得

473
00:18:49,740 --> 00:18:50,220
我不知道

474
00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:52,359
但30%将分配给零售

475
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,940
剩余70%将给机构交易者

476
00:18:54,940 --> 00:19:01,299
而首日开盘价通常因需求增加高于IPO价

477
00:19:01,299 --> 00:19:03,460
随着IPO日期临近

478
00:19:03,460 --> 00:19:06,680
假设IPO定价为每股114美元

479
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:10,539
然后在IPO当天开始宣布

480
00:19:10,539 --> 00:19:14,500
我们预计开盘价为140美元

481
00:19:14,500 --> 00:19:14,980
现在

482
00:19:14,980 --> 00:19:16,170
涨到142美元

483
00:19:16,170 --> 00:19:17,250
涨到144美元

484
00:19:17,250 --> 00:19:18,170
涨到145美元

485
00:19:18,170 --> 00:19:18,769
发生了什么

486
00:19:18,769 --> 00:19:22,009
人们已开始排队下单

487
00:19:22,009 --> 00:19:24,150
在队列中准备购买股份

488
00:19:24,150 --> 00:19:27,589
这就是这些备受追捧IPO的典型情况

489
00:19:27,589 --> 00:19:29,799
人们提前买入股份

490
00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:31,220
主要是机构交易者

491
00:19:31,220 --> 00:19:33,039
一旦IPO启动

492
00:19:33,039 --> 00:19:35,480
那些未提前获得股份的人当天也想买入

493
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,690
从而推高价格

494
00:19:37,690 --> 00:19:39,769
但从纯粹技术角度看

495
00:19:40,769 --> 00:19:43,369
流通股为150亿股

496
00:19:43,369 --> 00:19:47,559
需发行75-80亿美元股份

497
00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:50,420
将发行5.5亿至6.5亿股

498
00:19:50,420 --> 00:19:57,069
这意味着流通股约占总股本的4%

499
00:19:57,069 --> 00:20:00,789
供应量非常有限

500
00:20:00,789 --> 00:20:06,109
这是你必须注意的非常有趣的技朮组件

501
00:20:06,109 --> 00:20:10,029
因此由于供应量相对有限

502
00:20:10,029 --> 00:20:12,200
在需求高峰期期间

503
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:16,619
我们可能看到前五到十天的价格上涨超过百分之一百

504
00:20:16,619 --> 00:20:18,309
我不是说这一定会发生

505
00:20:18,309 --> 00:20:20,569
但我们之前见过这种情况

506
00:20:20,569 --> 00:20:22,329
我要向你展示圈ipo

507
00:20:22,329 --> 00:20:23,589
所以是圈ipo

508
00:20:23,589 --> 00:20:24,609
今年早些时候

509
00:20:24,609 --> 00:20:27,069
同样相对较小的流通股

510
00:20:27,069 --> 00:20:29,138
我们现在要切换到日线图

511
00:20:29,138 --> 00:20:35,750
在这张图上我们观察并分析价格

512
00:20:35,750 --> 00:20:38,819
我们从每股60美元涨到70美元

513
00:20:38,819 --> 00:20:42,900
短短几周内飙升至每股超过300美元

514
00:20:42,900 --> 00:20:45,799
我不是说这会发生在spacex身上

515
00:20:45,799 --> 00:20:49,750
但我要说当我们看到公司ipo时

516
00:20:49,750 --> 00:20:52,410
他们出售的股份数量较少

517
00:20:52,410 --> 00:20:55,069
现在就能立即获得大幅上涨

518
00:20:55,069 --> 00:20:57,569
最终价格通常会回落

519
00:20:57,569 --> 00:20:58,909
通常如此

520
00:20:58,909 --> 00:21:02,469
因此作为投资者在此买入

521
00:21:02,469 --> 00:21:04,920
并持有并不是好时机

522
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,240
成为叛徒

523
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,180
一周后买入卖出

524
00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:12,019
可能两周后在开始下跌前操作可行

525
00:21:12,019 --> 00:21:14,619
但这不是长期买入之地

526
00:21:14,619 --> 00:21:16,789
这里适合积极交易

527
00:21:16,789 --> 00:21:19,450
六个月后回来

528
00:21:19,450 --> 00:21:20,450
一年后回来

529
00:21:20,450 --> 00:21:22,369
这才是真正有趣的地方

530
00:21:22,369 --> 00:21:23,990
一旦形成支撑位

531
00:21:23,990 --> 00:21:25,390
随后会有良好反弹

532
00:21:25,390 --> 00:21:27,390
从40美元涨至140美元

533
00:21:27,390 --> 00:21:30,279
这里风险收益比更优

534
00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:30,759
好的

535
00:21:30,759 --> 00:21:32,680
这就是通常情况

536
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,190
在此案例中

537
00:21:35,390 --> 00:21:36,849
让我们稍作思考

538
00:21:36,849 --> 00:21:40,069
其实有人做了件有趣的事

539
00:21:40,069 --> 00:21:46,380
他们成立了一家公司并发行十亿股

540
00:21:46,380 --> 00:21:48,019
因此创建了一家新公司

541
00:21:48,019 --> 00:21:48,839
提交了文件

542
00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:49,990
州务卿

543
00:21:49,990 --> 00:21:52,329
公司拥有十亿股

544
00:21:52,329 --> 00:21:52,890
好的

545
00:21:52,890 --> 00:21:54,910
随后他们走上街头

546
00:21:54,910 --> 00:21:55,490
并说

547
00:21:55,490 --> 00:21:58,460
您想购买我公司的股票吗

548
00:21:58,460 --> 00:22:00,000
一位女士回应道一份额您的公司

549
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:00,980
那你要怎么做

550
00:22:00,980 --> 00:22:01,339
他说

551
00:22:01,339 --> 00:22:01,819
我要

552
00:22:01,819 --> 00:22:02,660
我不知道他说了什么

553
00:22:02,660 --> 00:22:04,099
我要做一件非常了不起的事

554
00:22:04,099 --> 00:22:04,779
然后她说

555
00:22:04,779 --> 00:22:05,019
好的

556
00:22:05,019 --> 00:22:05,180
是的

557
00:22:05,180 --> 00:22:06,319
多少钱我买

558
00:22:06,319 --> 00:22:07,159
多少钱

559
00:22:07,159 --> 00:22:08,089
二十美元

560
00:22:08,089 --> 00:22:08,829
二十美元

561
00:22:08,829 --> 00:22:09,569
她就说好吧

562
00:22:09,569 --> 00:22:10,849
我以二十美元买下

563
00:22:10,849 --> 00:22:11,490
然后他说

564
00:22:11,490 --> 00:22:13,670
我的公司现在价值二十亿美元

565
00:22:13,670 --> 00:22:16,500
因为股价每股二十美元

566
00:22:16,500 --> 00:22:19,460
我持有十亿股减一

567
00:22:19,460 --> 00:22:22,329
所以我身价二十亿美元

568
00:22:24,500 --> 00:22:25,380
账面上

569
00:22:25,380 --> 00:22:28,079
你确实如此不过等等

570
00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:30,519
流通股正在确定

571
00:22:30,519 --> 00:22:35,739
流通股仅占总股本的百分之四

572
00:22:35,739 --> 00:22:41,000
这意味着只有百分之四的股份在决定价值

573
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:47,519
剩余百分之九十六的股份流通量极小

574
00:22:47,519 --> 00:22:50,500
突然人们争相抢购

575
00:22:50,500 --> 00:22:52,920
价格开始不断攀升

576
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:59,170
但当有人试图卖出十四亿九千万股时

577
00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:01,730
或者现在十四亿五千万股

578
00:23:01,730 --> 00:23:02,029
不

579
00:23:02,029 --> 00:23:03,509
没有人持有这么多

580
00:23:03,509 --> 00:23:07,699
但我们是否认为这些内部人最终会出售

581
00:23:07,699 --> 00:23:09,098
现在马斯克必须出售

582
00:23:09,098 --> 00:23:10,119
他可能不会

583
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,400
他会用股份作抵押贷款

584
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,599
这是大多数创始人的做法

585
00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:16,000
这是明智的选择

586
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:16,740
他将持有四

587
00:23:16,740 --> 00:23:17,759
百分之二的公司股份

588
00:23:17,759 --> 00:23:19,638
他的股份不对外出售

589
00:23:19,638 --> 00:23:20,919
但其他人的呢

590
00:23:20,919 --> 00:23:25,440
那些过去五年投入数十亿美元的对冲基金

591
00:23:25,599 --> 00:23:29,799
部分客户会要求赎回并获利

592
00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:31,400
即使他们不想出售

593
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,980
也会被迫出售

594
00:23:32,980 --> 00:23:35,779
所以我预计会发生

595
00:23:35,779 --> 00:23:39,650
我们最终会遇到问题

596
00:23:39,650 --> 00:23:42,329
供应量相对有限

597
00:23:42,329 --> 00:23:45,450
在需求高涨期间可能导致价格剧烈波动

598
00:23:45,450 --> 00:23:47,970
突然市值可能从一点七

599
00:23:47,970 --> 00:23:48,309
五倍增长

600
00:23:48,309 --> 00:23:49,130
两万亿

601
00:23:49,130 --> 00:23:51,420
一直涨到三点五

602
00:23:52,740 --> 00:23:53,299
我的意思是

603
00:23:53,299 --> 00:23:53,640
这

604
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:53,940
是

605
00:23:53,940 --> 00:23:56,740
SpaceX是否可能

606
00:23:56,740 --> 00:24:02,480
在IPO后的几周内成为全球最有价值的公司

607
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,000
是否能超越英伟达的价值

608
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,179
能否突破五万亿美元市值

609
00:24:08,179 --> 00:24:10,278
这似乎难以想象

610
00:24:10,278 --> 00:24:13,460
但当你了解其结构设计

611
00:24:13,460 --> 00:24:16,420
仅占总股本的百分之四

612
00:24:16,420 --> 00:24:22,220
流通股将决定整个股票的市值

613
00:24:22,589 --> 00:24:25,430
所以内部分销股不会立即抛售吗

614
00:24:25,430 --> 00:24:26,829
如果股价上涨一倍

615
00:24:26,829 --> 00:24:28,430
交易首周

616
00:24:28,430 --> 00:24:32,279
内部分销股有锁定期

617
00:24:32,279 --> 00:24:34,240
这一点非常重要

618
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,239
他们无法合法出售

619
00:24:37,239 --> 00:24:41,150
这意味着锁定期结束前有窗口期

620
00:24:41,150 --> 00:24:47,009
唯一真正的抛售来自看空者

621
00:24:47,009 --> 00:24:49,420
锁定期结束后价格可能下跌

622
00:24:49,420 --> 00:24:51,339
以及套利做市商

623
00:24:51,339 --> 00:24:55,130
和散户在首日频繁交易

624
00:24:55,450 --> 00:24:57,930
让我们看看锁定期安排

625
00:24:59,009 --> 00:25:03,769
此处从发行后70天开始

626
00:25:03,769 --> 00:25:04,690
70天

627
00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:06,269
第70天解锁

628
00:25:06,269 --> 00:25:07,750
随后逐步推进

629
00:25:07,750 --> 00:25:10,130
到90天阶梯解锁

630
00:25:10,130 --> 00:25:11,150
105天

631
00:25:11,150 --> 00:25:12,029
120天

632
00:25:12,029 --> 00:25:12,529
130天

633
00:25:12,529 --> 00:25:14,529
135天和180天

634
00:25:14,529 --> 00:25:16,409
这些均在申报文件中

635
00:25:16,409 --> 00:25:21,348
此处唯一解锁的是10%

636
00:25:21,348 --> 00:25:26,619
若股票在5-10天内收盘价较IPO高30%

637
00:25:26,619 --> 00:25:31,138
交易在6:30财报后进行

638
00:25:31,138 --> 00:25:32,358
这是基于价格条件

639
00:25:32,358 --> 00:25:34,740
其余均为时间条件

640
00:25:34,740 --> 00:25:40,759
预计IPO后180天

641
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:42,119
IPO后六个月

642
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,650
股价可能开始下跌

643
00:25:44,650 --> 00:25:46,210
并可能持续下跌

644
00:25:46,210 --> 00:25:50,619
届时看空者可能预测此跌势

645
00:25:50,619 --> 00:25:57,440
SpaceX需要多少交易量维持当前价格不跌

646
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:02,829
以支撑数十亿高价持仓股份

647
00:26:02,829 --> 00:26:05,529
需每日数百亿股交易量支撑

648
00:26:05,529 --> 00:26:07,339
即使少量抛售也会导致价格波动

649
00:26:07,339 --> 00:26:10,470
因此，英伟达每天的交易量约为两亿股

650
00:26:10,470 --> 00:26:11,250
但如果你

651
00:26:11,250 --> 00:26:14,210
如果你直接抛售其中15%的交易量

652
00:26:14,210 --> 00:26:15,630
将压制股价

653
00:26:15,630 --> 00:26:17,109
如果超过15%

654
00:26:17,109 --> 00:26:18,710
股价会迅速大幅下跌

655
00:26:18,710 --> 00:26:21,180
做空者会察觉并趁机获利

656
00:26:21,180 --> 00:26:22,960
这些内部人士想要出售

657
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:23,740
但他们不想

658
00:26:23,740 --> 00:26:24,140
你知道的

659
00:26:24,140 --> 00:26:24,929
他们不想伤害

660
00:26:24,929 --> 00:26:26,548
也不愿损害股票本身

661
00:26:26,548 --> 00:26:28,628
必须缓慢平仓

662
00:26:28,628 --> 00:26:35,230
你很可能看到数月持续的大规模抛售

663
00:26:35,230 --> 00:26:37,789
每天约2000-3000万股

664
00:26:37,789 --> 00:26:40,109
需要数月甚至更久

665
00:26:40,109 --> 00:26:44,420
每天2000-3000万股才能出清数十亿股

666
00:26:44,420 --> 00:26:45,519
现在会有部分

667
00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:48,789
肯定存在场外交易

668
00:26:48,789 --> 00:26:49,609
比如

669
00:26:49,609 --> 00:26:50,710
某机构说

670
00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:53,009
我们需要处理5亿股的套牢盘

671
00:26:53,009 --> 00:26:54,450
贵机构是否承接

672
00:26:54,450 --> 00:26:55,250
他们会这样操作

673
00:26:55,250 --> 00:26:57,670
这些交易不会通过市场进行

674
00:26:57,670 --> 00:26:58,960
后续才会显现

675
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,000
会有此类交易发生

676
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,140
场外交易

677
00:27:02,140 --> 00:27:06,679
但也会有内部人士在公开市场抛售

678
00:27:06,679 --> 00:27:08,358
当禁售期临近时

679
00:27:08,358 --> 00:27:09,878
预计会出现大量做空

680
00:27:09,878 --> 00:27:12,119
在禁售期期间

681
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,519
禁售期到期后

682
00:27:13,519 --> 00:27:15,240
预计内部人士会大量抛售

683
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:16,759
IPO中这种情况并不少见

684
00:27:16,759 --> 00:27:17,799
就像我刚才展示的圆圈案例

685
00:27:17,799 --> 00:27:18,420
IPO

686
00:27:18,420 --> 00:27:19,359
这次IPO

687
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,680
通常流通盘非常小

688
00:27:21,839 --> 00:27:24,420
实际可交易流通股极少

689
00:27:24,420 --> 00:27:25,880
且内部人士不会抛售

690
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,259
公司也不会立即进行二次发行

691
00:27:28,259 --> 00:27:30,250
IPO后立即

692
00:27:30,250 --> 00:27:31,309
会形成一个窗口期

693
00:27:31,309 --> 00:27:34,390
可能出现剧烈价格波动

694
00:27:34,390 --> 00:27:36,650
随后股价下跌

695
00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:38,150
持续下跌后逐渐企稳

696
00:27:38,150 --> 00:27:41,690
典型的IPO走势图就是这样

697
00:27:41,690 --> 00:27:43,289
你成功IPO了

698
00:27:43,289 --> 00:27:44,470
实际上你完成了IPO

699
00:27:44,470 --> 00:27:45,509
这里有点过度炒作

700
00:27:45,509 --> 00:27:46,650
你全力出击

701
00:27:46,650 --> 00:27:47,670
然后放松下来

702
00:27:47,670 --> 00:27:49,369
你跌至ipo价格以下

703
00:27:49,369 --> 00:27:50,589
然后逐步撤离

704
00:27:50,589 --> 00:27:52,069
接着开始上涨

705
00:27:52,069 --> 00:27:53,930
这里是投资者的天堂

706
00:27:53,930 --> 00:27:54,900
长期持有

707
00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:56,039
这一阶段

708
00:27:56,039 --> 00:27:57,299
这里正是最佳时机

709
00:27:57,299 --> 00:27:58,579
在我看来是叛徒

710
00:27:58,579 --> 00:27:59,500
这只是我的个人观点

711
00:27:59,500 --> 00:28:00,420
并非绝对保证

712
00:28:00,420 --> 00:28:01,400
这就是即将发生的事

713
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,460
但这基于我过去的观察

714
00:28:03,460 --> 00:28:04,500
就像spacex一样

715
00:28:04,500 --> 00:28:05,599
开盘时长期买入

716
00:28:05,599 --> 00:28:07,160
在我看来不

717
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:07,819
并非如此

718
00:28:07,819 --> 00:28:08,940
价格会太高

719
00:28:08,940 --> 00:28:11,619
锁定期结束后长期买入

720
00:28:11,619 --> 00:28:13,920
然后观察有多少人卖出

721
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,740
最终许多股东可能选择继续持有

722
00:28:17,740 --> 00:28:20,380
看看能否成为下一个英伟达或特斯拉

723
00:28:20,380 --> 00:28:23,140
但我的猜测是人们会计算收益

724
00:28:23,140 --> 00:28:24,980
想要兑现利润

725
00:28:24,980 --> 00:28:26,279
当这种情况发生时

726
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:28,269
你会看到价格开始下跌

727
00:28:28,269 --> 00:28:33,690
我对这些ipo的看法是存在机会

728
00:28:33,690 --> 00:28:35,250
提供波动性机会

729
00:28:35,250 --> 00:28:37,009
因此必须管理风险

730
00:28:37,009 --> 00:28:39,849
但我会积极交易spacex的ipo

731
00:28:39,849 --> 00:28:43,069
唯一阻止我的是价差过大

732
00:28:43,069 --> 00:28:44,589
当我使用二级市场数据时

733
00:28:44,589 --> 00:28:46,429
风险太高

734
00:28:46,429 --> 00:28:48,068
如果无法管理风险

735
00:28:48,068 --> 00:28:48,888
就不会参与交易

736
00:28:48,888 --> 00:28:50,449
只要能控制风险

737
00:28:50,449 --> 00:28:52,809
就会交易spacex的ipo

738
00:28:52,809 --> 00:28:54,109
六个月后

739
00:28:54,109 --> 00:28:55,109
可能稍晚些

740
00:28:55,109 --> 00:28:55,809
八个月后

741
00:28:55,809 --> 00:28:57,349
那时我会开始考虑

742
00:28:57,349 --> 00:29:00,480
现在是否适合长期持有

743
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,339
我很想听听你的看法

744
00:29:02,339 --> 00:29:04,940
你可能有与我完全不同的观点

745
00:29:04,940 --> 00:29:06,319
你对马斯克怎么看

746
00:29:06,319 --> 00:29:07,500
你对spacex怎么看

747
00:29:07,500 --> 00:29:08,440
你会交易吗

748
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:09,259
你会买入吗

749
00:29:09,259 --> 00:29:11,750
你打算做什么，请在下方评论区告诉我

750
00:29:11,750 --> 00:29:13,869
如果你觉得这期内容有帮助

751
00:29:13,869 --> 00:29:17,650
如果这能帮助你更好地理解SpaceX的IPO并做好准备

752
00:29:17,650 --> 00:29:19,250
希望你能点赞支持

753
00:29:19,250 --> 00:29:20,529
希望你能订阅这个频道

754
00:29:20,529 --> 00:29:21,049
嘿

755
00:29:21,049 --> 00:29:23,009
如果你想观看我实时交易的过程

756
00:29:23,009 --> 00:29:25,430
我现在这里有两周的战士交易试用期

757
00:29:25,430 --> 00:29:27,710
在试用期间你可以跟随我的操作

758
00:29:27,710 --> 00:29:28,289
当我进行交易时

759
00:29:28,289 --> 00:29:30,599
你将使用这款相同的软件

760
00:29:30,599 --> 00:29:33,140
可以看到我入场的瞬间

761
00:29:33,140 --> 00:29:34,299
可以看到我出场的瞬间

762
00:29:34,299 --> 00:29:35,900
在IPO当天

763
00:29:35,900 --> 00:29:39,219
这将会非常令人兴奋

764
00:29:39,219 --> 00:29:40,019
我一如既往地提醒你

765
00:29:40,019 --> 00:29:40,818
交易存在风险

766
00:29:40,818 --> 00:29:41,739
我的结果并不典型

767
00:29:41,739 --> 00:29:43,019
请务必管理好风险

768
00:29:43,019 --> 00:29:46,660
并在投入真实资金前先进行模拟练习

769
00:29:46,660 --> 00:29:48,119
我们下期再见

770
00:29:48,119 --> 00:29:49,059
很快见

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