巴菲特在等千载难逢的暴跌。【2026-05-04】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月4号星期一

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跌幅0.4%

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一

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大盘小幅调整

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但是问题不大

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指数收盘仍在5日均线上

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算是上涨途中喘口气儿

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接下来只要没有突然来一个大阴线

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就可以忽略一时的小幅波动

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仍然可以看涨

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尤其今天其实是有利空的

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股市并没有怎么调整

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说明行情还比较强

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跌幅0.19%

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收盘几乎是一个十字星的小阴线

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均线结构没有被打乱

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仍然是向上多头排列

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纳指收盘也位于5日线上

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不破5日线

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不用担心可以继续看涨

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在刚刚结束的伯克希尔股东大会上

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95岁高龄的股神巴菲特

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阿贝尔作为现任首席执行官

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首次全面主持了会议

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公司的文化和经营模式

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仍将参考巴菲特的长期投资理念

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公司持有3970亿现金

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也不急着投出去

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认为2026年目前的市场估值水平下

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很难找到合适的投资标的

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巴菲特在采访时说了一些话

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颇受关注

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他对市场的投机发出了警告

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认为目前人们赌性太强了

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金融市场越来越受到投机而非长期投资的驱动

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巴菲特将现代金融比作是一座教堂

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教堂边上附带了一个赌场

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他相信去教堂的人比去赌场的人多

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但是现在赌场变得极具吸引力

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关于市场赌博心态的看法

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本质上是认为目前股市没有好的投资价值

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而是在等一波大幅回调

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什么样的回调叫做大幅回调呢

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显然不是今年2026年一季度

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这种调整

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也不是2025年的关税回调

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因为这两次回调

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股神都是按兵不动

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巴菲特表示

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在他接管伯克希尔60年的职业生涯中

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股市腰斩打五折的有几次

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2026年这样的下跌算不了什么

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他耐心等待的是

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像2008年金融危机

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2020年新冠疫情这种级别的市场

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崩盘的抄底机会

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那个时候市场流动性崩溃

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人人自危

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优质的资产以非常便宜的价格出售

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那也就是说

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在巴菲特的眼里

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美股早晚有一天会重演崩盘

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让伯克希尔再次抄到历史大底

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目前股市估值高

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天天创新高

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每个人都非常清楚

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股市已经过热

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估值较高

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现在买入将面临较高的风险

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但是人们还在不断投入

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股市还在上涨

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formal情绪蔓延

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似乎没有赶紧买入

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就会错过一个亿

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这在巴菲特看来就是赌博投机

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而不是投资

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巴菲特以前被经常引用的一句话是

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股市是将资金从急躁的人转移到耐心的人

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手中的工具

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着眼于长期的投资者

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更有可能获利

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而那些基于短期情绪频繁买卖股票的投资者

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往往会遭到损失

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市场不理智的抛售优质公司

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这种机会是好多年才有一次的

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除了耐心等待

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别无他法

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现在市场乐观

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我们不妨想象一下

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那些经营前景非常好

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盈利很稳定的公司

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如果打了五折

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你是买入还是卖出啊

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举个例子

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英伟达沃尔玛苹果如果今天打五折卖

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是不是抢疯了

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但是当市场崩盘时

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大家不理智的卖出这些股票还真的打了五折了

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却没有人敢买啊

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哎这个就是古神与凡人的区别

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现在有AI开源工具

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能把巴菲特等传奇人物的投资思路炼化成AI

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智能体

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开发者通过投喂巴菲特这60年致股东的信

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拉取巴菲特看重的指标

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比如ROE啦

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自由现金流量

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负债率等等这些指标进行筛选

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而且AI还不只是训练了巴菲特的投资策略

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还将彼得林奇

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木头姐阿克曼等十几位投资明星都给他炼化了

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现在的工具很先进

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不过最重要的并不是用这些工具

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而是我们自己的投资思路

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是不是能够坚持走在正确的道路上

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道理大家都懂

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人弃我取嘛

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说起来简单

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但是我们的情绪很容易被市场牵着走

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在不该买的时候追高

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在不该抄底的时候割肉

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偏偏就是人气

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我也气

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人抢我也抢

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那么伯克希尔在等待

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永远在等待

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等市场崩溃

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所有的投资经理都不敢接电话的时候

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今天中东那边又开始打了

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起

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因是美国开始引导商业船只通过霍尔木兹海峡

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伊朗向美国海军舰艇和商船发射了多枚导弹

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无人机和武装小艇

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美国炸毁了七艘伊朗小型船只

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美国军方称

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悬挂美国国旗的船只成功通过了海峡

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伊朗方面否认这个事

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阿联酋表示

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在领海拦截了三枚导弹

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第四枚导弹掉到海里去了

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美伊停火协议和谈判前景堪忧的情况下

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原油大涨

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布伦特原油创出本轮行情新高

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这算是突破压力位

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有进一步走高的趋势

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3月份是油价涨

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股价就跌

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今天看来股市虽然有一定承压

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但总体跌幅有限

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还算是比较平稳的

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美股对战争消息脱敏之后

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对战火重燃的恐慌情绪也没有那么高了

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是永久票委

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在鲍威尔要推人之际

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老将威廉姆斯的讲话显得更有一定的分量

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他说美联储迟早还得降息

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现在不降息

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是因为战争造成显著的供应链中断

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要评估物价稳定和充分就业双重风险

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他预测今年的通胀率将达到3%

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明年会回落到2%

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失业率将在近期维持在4.25%

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到4.5%的区间

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劳动力市场偶尔出现负增长

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不一定是坏事

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只是正常波动而已

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那这样的说法显得鸽派

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一个鸽派的政策预期

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对股市持续火爆是有好处的

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6月11号举行投资者说明会

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预计6月28号马斯克生日当天

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IPO又将是一个巨无霸

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那么市场哪来的钱用来配置这么一只

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即将上市的权重股呢

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哎华尔街正在考虑腾挪资金

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弄点资金用于配置新上市的SPACEX

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另外基金行业对科技板块的仓位

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各有不同的风控标准

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SPACEX加入后会增加基金对科技行业的持股仓位

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所以呢也必须在科技板块内部调仓

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公司上市后将会迅速纳入指数

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而那些跟踪指数的被动基金

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就需要按权重调出一些钱来买SPACEX嗯

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那这样的挤出效应很久前就提过了

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很快就要实现了

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但是我认为虽然会对资金有虹吸效应

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但初期影响也不是非常大

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因为IPO时只筹集500亿到750亿

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这对美股这么大的市场来说是很容易消化的啊

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但是未来那些限售股也要解禁的时候

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对市场的资金压力就会逐渐的增大

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假设2026年又是全年上涨的一年

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那将是连续4年上涨了

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到2027年解禁的股票出来

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大盘又面临周期性调整时

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可能会对市场形成巨大的资金压力

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现在行情好

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先享受当下

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但远期不可能永远乐观

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不然巴菲特那接近4000亿的现金

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都没有办法用出去啦

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最近存储股涨疯了

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居然真的成为跨年牛股

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韩国的SK海力士市值突破了1000万亿哦

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是韩元韩元币值小数字亮瞎眼

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由于游戏里面456条人命

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才换来456亿韩元

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456号选手玩了两遍

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最后还买不下海力士万分之一的股权

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可见1000万亿非常多的钱

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相当于6774亿美元

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收到这个消息

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带动美股存储股继续大涨

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美光科技今天继续上涨

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有观众问mu能不能继续涨

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那目前这个K线的形态是强势上涨当中

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主升浪没有理由看空

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其他三只存储股也是一样啊

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00:09:55,669 --> 00:09:58,549
强势上涨不做空不看空

223
00:09:58,549 --> 00:10:00,250
如果早期持有

224
00:10:00,250 --> 00:10:01,610
那就继续持有

225
00:10:01,610 --> 00:10:04,830
如果现在一股没有准备要追高的

226
00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:07,490
那我估计买了也拿不住

227
00:10:07,490 --> 00:10:10,250
今天我IBKR公开账户截图

228
00:10:10,250 --> 00:10:11,789
净值20.7万

229
00:10:11,789 --> 00:10:14,210
大部分持仓今天表现一般啦

230
00:10:14,210 --> 00:10:16,720
高通又跌回了成本线以下了

231
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,929
但今天有一只股涨了20%

232
00:10:20,289 --> 00:10:23,779
cr cl circle非常的给力啊

233
00:10:24,019 --> 00:10:25,940
circle今天成交量放大

234
00:10:25,940 --> 00:10:27,700
并且大涨20%

235
00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:29,899
有行情启动的迹象

236
00:10:29,899 --> 00:10:32,100
成交量放大是放大了

237
00:10:32,100 --> 00:10:33,419
但不是天量

238
00:10:33,419 --> 00:10:35,100
这个非常的理想

239
00:10:35,100 --> 00:10:37,039
如果突然来了个天量

240
00:10:37,039 --> 00:10:39,230
那行情将会短命的

241
00:10:39,230 --> 00:10:41,429
换手率15.54%

242
00:10:41,429 --> 00:10:42,870
而涨幅20%

243
00:10:42,870 --> 00:10:45,909
这样的匹配度我认为是看涨标志

244
00:10:45,909 --> 00:10:48,099
洗盘已经较为充分

245
00:10:48,418 --> 00:10:50,899
那它今天为什么突然大涨呢

246
00:10:50,899 --> 00:10:55,169
因为clarity法案有妥协松动的迹象

247
00:10:55,169 --> 00:10:56,909
清晰法按原计划

248
00:10:56,909 --> 00:11:00,009
全面限制稳定币利息及活动激励

249
00:11:00,009 --> 00:11:03,220
但拟议关键条款有了更新

250
00:11:03,220 --> 00:11:06,559
虽然仍然限制加密货币公司支付利息

251
00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:11,039
但是允许用户通过参与平台的活动获得奖励

252
00:11:11,039 --> 00:11:13,320
比如在交易平台里交易

253
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,960
转账质押等活动可以获得奖励

254
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,210
那不就是绕个弯的给利息了吗

255
00:11:20,450 --> 00:11:23,549
clarity法案只要是能够尽快通过

256
00:11:23,549 --> 00:11:25,690
对CRCL都是利好

257
00:11:25,690 --> 00:11:27,529
因为法律越规范

258
00:11:27,529 --> 00:11:31,860
对circle这种遵纪守法的好学生就是越有利的

259
00:11:31,860 --> 00:11:33,820
英特尔作为近期牛股

260
00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:35,159
今天有所调整

261
00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:37,019
但是调整不破5日线

262
00:11:37,019 --> 00:11:42,179
算是强势整理CPU在AI推理方面逐渐吃香

263
00:11:42,179 --> 00:11:45,799
今年流行起来的龙虾就是AI智能体

264
00:11:45,799 --> 00:11:47,940
和之前的AI训练相比

265
00:11:47,940 --> 00:11:50,200
会需要更高的CPU

266
00:11:50,519 --> 00:11:52,549
苹果分析师郭明琪说

267
00:11:52,549 --> 00:11:56,409
英特尔先进封装的良率提升到90%以上

268
00:11:56,409 --> 00:12:00,059
将会至少有两家大型客户需要英特尔的封装

269
00:12:00,059 --> 00:12:02,950
这两家是亚马逊和谷歌

270
00:12:03,309 --> 00:12:07,009
股价在强势上涨途中可以顺势看涨

271
00:12:07,009 --> 00:12:10,529
英伟达上周创了历史新高后又蔫儿了

272
00:12:10,529 --> 00:12:12,389
这几天连续下跌

273
00:12:12,389 --> 00:12:14,549
回到区间整理里面了

274
00:12:14,549 --> 00:12:16,929
现在的图形不怎么理想啊

275
00:12:16,929 --> 00:12:19,750
预计英伟达还将继续高位震荡

276
00:12:19,750 --> 00:12:23,470
持有英伟达可能会浪费不少时间嘶

277
00:12:23,470 --> 00:12:25,289
我在想问题出在哪

278
00:12:25,289 --> 00:12:27,929
大概是竞争逐渐出现了吧

279
00:12:27,929 --> 00:12:30,370
你看AMD后来居上

280
00:12:30,370 --> 00:12:32,429
博通也拿了不少订单

281
00:12:32,429 --> 00:12:33,649
还有谷歌

282
00:12:33,649 --> 00:12:34,570
亚马逊

283
00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:37,269
连特斯拉也搞起的芯片

284
00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:40,950
英伟达自己还挺担心中国也做出芯片来

285
00:12:40,950 --> 00:12:42,169
黄仁勋说

286
00:12:42,169 --> 00:12:44,169
现在中国市场份额是零

287
00:12:44,169 --> 00:12:45,389
没有业务

288
00:12:45,389 --> 00:12:48,309
他说英伟达被排除在中国市场之外

289
00:12:48,309 --> 00:12:49,990
这将帮助竞争对手

290
00:12:49,990 --> 00:12:52,789
建立更大的开发者和客户生态系统

291
00:12:52,789 --> 00:12:57,000
然后到全球范围内挑战现有的市场秩序

292
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,159
老黄可能希望推出一款

293
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:02,139
能够同时获得美国和中国支持的产品

294
00:13:02,139 --> 00:13:04,610
以免错过中国的业务机遇

295
00:13:04,610 --> 00:13:06,110
关于这个事情

296
00:13:06,110 --> 00:13:08,649
川普于5月中旬访问中国

297
00:13:08,649 --> 00:13:12,899
或许就会出现有利于英伟达和AMD的消息出台了

298
00:13:12,899 --> 00:13:15,379
PLTR刚刚发布财报

299
00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:17,149
盘后小幅震荡

300
00:13:17,149 --> 00:13:19,090
PLTR业绩很好

301
00:13:19,090 --> 00:13:21,490
一季度营业收入16.3亿

302
00:13:21,490 --> 00:13:23,129
增长85%

303
00:13:23,129 --> 00:13:25,059
超过华尔街的预期

304
00:13:25,059 --> 00:13:27,639
每股收益是33美分

305
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:29,720
超过预期的28美分

306
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,110
公司上调全年业绩指引

307
00:13:32,110 --> 00:13:34,330
预计二季度营收18亿

308
00:13:34,330 --> 00:13:36,950
全年营收同比增长71%

309
00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:39,240
到76.6亿左右

310
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,009
然后指引也是超过预期的

311
00:13:42,009 --> 00:13:44,389
这是一个应该要上涨的财报

312
00:13:44,389 --> 00:13:46,669
但暂时股价没怎么变动

313
00:13:46,669 --> 00:13:50,099
看看明天交易时段是否会有反应

314
00:13:50,418 --> 00:13:52,058
从日线图上看

315
00:13:52,058 --> 00:13:55,278
长期上涨之后的短期回调趋势当中

316
00:13:55,278 --> 00:13:57,240
最近有见底迹象

317
00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,759
如果交易时段呢拉上一波

318
00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:02,240
或许就会出现反弹波段

319
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,700
上期视频观众提问问了几只个股

320
00:14:05,700 --> 00:14:07,399
今天时间关系呀

321
00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:08,639
我就暂时讲一下

322
00:14:08,639 --> 00:14:15,039
REDIS和SOFIRADIRDDT可能正在形成头肩底呃

323
00:14:15,039 --> 00:14:16,899
这是个底部反转形态

324
00:14:16,899 --> 00:14:18,639
上周的财报不错

325
00:14:18,639 --> 00:14:20,860
一季度收入6.63亿

326
00:14:20,860 --> 00:14:22,779
同比增长69%

327
00:14:22,779 --> 00:14:25,389
核心的收入来源是广告收入

328
00:14:25,389 --> 00:14:28,470
广告收入同比增长了74%

329
00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:30,629
基本面增速这么高啊

330
00:14:30,629 --> 00:14:33,610
图形还是一个底部的头肩底形态

331
00:14:33,610 --> 00:14:36,379
上涨的概率还是比较高的

332
00:14:36,379 --> 00:14:38,899
SOFI的财报超过预期

333
00:14:38,899 --> 00:14:41,600
但是对2026年的指引比较保守

334
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,169
全年营收增长30%

335
00:14:44,169 --> 00:14:46,409
投资者似乎不太满意

336
00:14:46,409 --> 00:14:48,909
日K线图看起来比较弱势

337
00:14:48,909 --> 00:14:50,809
股价低于所有均线

338
00:14:50,809 --> 00:14:53,399
有一定的概率转为阴跌走势

339
00:14:53,399 --> 00:14:55,580
如果过几天创新低啦

340
00:14:55,580 --> 00:14:57,529
那我觉得会跌一段

341
00:14:57,529 --> 00:15:00,330
如果在15块钱的位置止跌

342
00:15:00,330 --> 00:15:01,409
形成底部

343
00:15:01,409 --> 00:15:05,730
那么整理一段时间后才有可能反弹好

344
00:15:05,730 --> 00:15:07,429
那今天的节目就分享到这里

345
00:15:07,429 --> 00:15:08,429
感谢大家收看

346
00:15:08,429 --> 00:15:10,340
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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