BV1hYRzBvE1g · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:13,220 --> 00:00:13,779 大家好 2 00:00:13,779 --> 00:00:14,939 欢迎回到娜娜说美股 3 00:00:14,939 --> 00:00:16,320 今天是5月4号 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:16,780 周一 5 00:00:16,780 --> 00:00:21,149 由于美伊对峙在霍尔木兹海峡呢发生了一点小摩擦 6 00:00:21,149 --> 00:00:24,469 伊朗再次袭击阿联酋市场小幅震荡 7 00:00:26,980 --> 00:00:30,140 纳指和标普只是象征性的小幅下挫 8 00:00:30,140 --> 00:00:31,480 道指经不起折腾 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:32,609 跌幅的较重 10 00:00:32,609 --> 00:00:35,590 不同期限的美债收益率全线起飞 11 00:00:35,590 --> 00:00:37,609 对周期股的负面影响最大 12 00:00:37,609 --> 00:00:39,609 因为科技股有AI蓄势 13 00:00:39,609 --> 00:00:41,390 支撑着企业盈利 14 00:00:41,390 --> 00:00:45,409 增长呢也基本全靠科技与能源板块推动 15 00:00:45,409 --> 00:00:47,429 油价又上下乱窜了 16 00:00:47,429 --> 00:00:49,329 据伊朗官方媒体报道称 17 00:00:49,329 --> 00:00:54,939 一艘美国军舰在川普宣布启动代号自由计划的引导行动后 18 00:00:54,939 --> 00:00:58,520 试图接近并进入霍尔木兹海峡州 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,380 伊朗发射两枚导弹 20 00:01:00,380 --> 00:01:01,280 击中逼退 21 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,340 伊朗国家电视台援引伊朗海军表示 22 00:01:04,340 --> 00:01:09,170 这次的行动成功阻止了美军舰进入相关海峡领域 23 00:01:12,650 --> 00:01:16,930 并称伊朗曾试图通过向商船开火进行干扰 24 00:01:16,930 --> 00:01:18,219 但是没能成功 25 00:01:18,219 --> 00:01:23,319 美方已经消灭了六艘试图干扰商船航行的伊朗小型船 26 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:23,780 只 27 00:01:23,780 --> 00:01:24,620 有两艘 28 00:01:24,620 --> 00:01:29,060 悬挂美国旗帜的船只已经安全通过了该水域责任 29 00:01:29,060 --> 00:01:31,680 就是现在双方各执一词 30 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,810 都驳斥对方的说法 31 00:01:33,810 --> 00:01:34,689 与此同时 32 00:01:34,689 --> 00:01:40,310 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军正式发布了一份海峡新管控地图 33 00:01:40,310 --> 00:01:42,969 警告将会拦截所有违规船只 34 00:01:42,969 --> 00:01:46,400 并且呢计划立法加强海峡控制 35 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,840 这一次导弹事件是伊朗迄今对美军最为直接的武力行动 36 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:53,500 就自停火以来哈 37 00:01:53,500 --> 00:01:57,019 嗯标志着双方的紧张态势呢进一步升级 38 00:01:57,019 --> 00:02:02,989 也让市场对这个海峡局势能否在短期内得到缓解的预期急剧降温了 39 00:02:02,989 --> 00:02:07,390 这个事件的导火索是川普昨天启动的自由计划 40 00:02:07,390 --> 00:02:14,459 川普昨天在社交媒体宣布将引导被困在霍尔木兹海峡的商船安全驶离 41 00:02:14,459 --> 00:02:17,959 呃并将此举呢定性为人道主义姿态 42 00:02:17,959 --> 00:02:18,919 同时警告 43 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:20,899 若是这个行动遭到阻扰的话 44 00:02:20,899 --> 00:02:24,069 将会不得不以强硬的手段应对 45 00:02:24,069 --> 00:02:28,550 自2月底美伊对伊朗发动军事打击以来呢 46 00:02:28,550 --> 00:02:32,620 约1600艘商船滞留在海峡两侧 47 00:02:32,620 --> 00:02:33,840 过去五周内 48 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,159 只有15艘船经嗯 49 00:02:36,159 --> 00:02:40,479 伊朗革命卫队控制的拉拉克岛通道通过 50 00:02:40,479 --> 00:02:43,599 每艘被收取了大约200万美元的通行费 51 00:02:43,599 --> 00:02:45,020 据媒体透露 52 00:02:45,020 --> 00:02:48,039 美国中央司令部司令在上个周四晚间 53 00:02:48,039 --> 00:02:51,949 向川普呢提交了一份更为激进的方案 54 00:02:51,949 --> 00:02:57,729 计划直接派遣海军嗯舰艇强行通过霍尔木兹海峡 55 00:02:57,729 --> 00:03:01,210 摧毁伊朗发射的任何导弹或者快艇 56 00:03:01,210 --> 00:03:03,449 并且在伊朗攻击海湾国家的时候 57 00:03:03,449 --> 00:03:06,300 全面恢复战争状态 58 00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:11,439 但是川普最终在最后时刻呢还是选择了相对克制的方案 59 00:03:11,439 --> 00:03:13,780 就是这个所谓的自由计划哈 60 00:03:16,539 --> 00:03:20,180 自由计划的核心并非是国军舰护航 61 00:03:20,180 --> 00:03:22,270 而是一套协调机制 62 00:03:22,270 --> 00:03:25,969 涉及相关国家保险公司和航运组织 63 00:03:25,969 --> 00:03:30,090 主要工作是定位伊朗在海峡中部署的水雷 64 00:03:30,090 --> 00:03:34,229 并且呢向过境船只传递安全航路信息 65 00:03:34,229 --> 00:03:35,399 尽管如此 66 00:03:35,399 --> 00:03:40,180 美国中央司令部仍为行动配备了1.5万名军人 67 00:03:40,180 --> 00:03:44,740 导弹驱逐舰和超过百架军机以及无人机 68 00:03:44,740 --> 00:03:47,939 但是商船也照样不敢冒险啊 69 00:03:47,939 --> 00:03:50,240 对于这个所谓的引导行动 70 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:55,538 华尔街策略师呢原本是给出了四种情景推演的一嗯 71 00:03:55,538 --> 00:03:58,618 美军引导船只成功驶出 72 00:03:58,618 --> 00:04:00,558 这个伊朗呢按兵不动 73 00:04:00,558 --> 00:04:02,139 大家各回各家 74 00:04:02,139 --> 00:04:03,389 危机结束 75 00:04:03,389 --> 00:04:05,009 二伊朗开火 76 00:04:05,009 --> 00:04:07,030 但是被美军反杀 77 00:04:07,030 --> 00:04:09,650 所以这危机呢也是圆满谢幕 78 00:04:10,150 --> 00:04:14,050 三商船不幸中弹或者触水雷爆炸了 79 00:04:14,050 --> 00:04:14,990 火光冲天 80 00:04:14,990 --> 00:04:16,290 画面一经转播 81 00:04:18,250 --> 00:04:21,360 因为是你美国怂恿这商船冒险的嘛 82 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,579 如果是美国的军舰被揍了 83 00:04:23,579 --> 00:04:25,038 那就更麻烦了哈 84 00:04:25,038 --> 00:04:28,119 呃第四那就是美国光说不练 85 00:04:28,119 --> 00:04:29,879 只停留在口头阶段 86 00:04:29,879 --> 00:04:31,459 行动迟迟不落地 87 00:04:31,459 --> 00:04:37,579 因为其他的那些商船或者是那些保险公司或者其他国家不配合 88 00:04:37,579 --> 00:04:43,000 目前来看这个局面呢尴尬的卡在了二和三之间 89 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,800 海峡的僵局基本维持原状 90 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,240 后面进展不明 91 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,579 可能还会有零星的一些摩擦哈 92 00:04:49,579 --> 00:04:51,720 就在双方拉扯之际 93 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:56,288 阿联酋的防空警报时隔一个月后再度响起 94 00:04:56,288 --> 00:04:59,389 伊朗往阿联酋扔了四枚巡航导弹 95 00:04:59,389 --> 00:05:02,709 其中三枚在阿联酋领海上空被成功拦截 96 00:05:02,709 --> 00:05:04,610 另外伊美呢坠入了海中 97 00:05:04,610 --> 00:05:05,769 除了导弹之外 98 00:05:09,420 --> 00:05:14,139 所以市场指望中东局势短期缓解的幻想泡汤了 99 00:05:14,139 --> 00:05:17,689 但是既然目前还没有真正大打出手 100 00:05:17,689 --> 00:05:19,569 所以美股也没怎么恐慌 101 00:05:19,569 --> 00:05:21,569 波动率指数VIX虽然走高 102 00:05:21,569 --> 00:05:23,079 但仍低于20 103 00:05:23,079 --> 00:05:28,970 如果后面伊朗真的再给邻居们搞一场盛大的群发烟花秀 104 00:05:28,970 --> 00:05:31,110 或者打中了美国军舰 105 00:05:31,110 --> 00:05:34,319 那个时候市场才会真的虎躯一震 106 00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:39,819 现阶段美股的新司仍集中在强劲的企业盈利数据上 107 00:05:39,819 --> 00:05:42,139 纳驰100今天虽然小幅回落 108 00:05:42,139 --> 00:05:45,889 但日K呢仍然稳稳的踩在5日均线上方 109 00:05:45,889 --> 00:05:48,649 指数连续三周创历史新高 110 00:05:48,649 --> 00:05:52,990 对冲基金却在背后连续三周卖出科技股 111 00:05:52,990 --> 00:05:55,930 根据高盛主经纪业务数据 112 00:05:55,930 --> 00:05:59,930 这一波抛售强度已经达到了历史极端水平 113 00:05:59,930 --> 00:06:02,050 仅次于2021年初 114 00:06:02,050 --> 00:06:03,329 按照常理 115 00:06:03,329 --> 00:06:06,449 对冲基金狂甩这个科技股 116 00:06:06,449 --> 00:06:09,310 通常是市场风格轮动的预兆 117 00:06:09,310 --> 00:06:12,649 大家该去抱那些价值股的大腿了 118 00:06:12,649 --> 00:06:15,110 可是观察纳指100的走势哈 119 00:06:15,110 --> 00:06:17,490 完全没有看到这种影响是吧 120 00:06:20,589 --> 00:06:23,970 因为在对冲基金大力抛售科技股之际呢 121 00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:27,660 其他交易员投资者不但不跑路 122 00:06:27,660 --> 00:06:29,370 还疯狂的扫货 123 00:06:29,370 --> 00:06:31,949 推动纳值100节节攀升 124 00:06:31,949 --> 00:06:35,709 看涨期权交易量远远高于看跌期权 125 00:06:35,709 --> 00:06:38,658 因为这个市场呢不再害怕了哈 126 00:06:38,658 --> 00:06:41,199 甚至巴不得市场能跌两下 127 00:06:41,199 --> 00:06:42,480 给机会上车 128 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,000 按照以往的经验 129 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:48,459 如果科技股真的被这一帮对冲基金砸出一个坑来 130 00:06:48,459 --> 00:06:52,110 那么第二次反弹哈通常都是两个星期后 131 00:06:52,110 --> 00:06:53,990 而且通常会走得更高 132 00:06:53,990 --> 00:06:56,889 因为等那些量化基金清仓完毕 133 00:06:56,889 --> 00:06:58,680 需要重新建仓的时候 134 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:03,800 资金就会像饿狼扑羊一样迅速扑回之前的领涨板块 135 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,579 标普500指数上个周五收出这一根糟糕的避雷针之后哈 136 00:07:08,579 --> 00:07:13,060 本周出嗯如期借消息回落了 137 00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:17,000 但是呢日K仍处于5日与10日均线之上 138 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:18,339 收盘不多不少 139 00:07:18,339 --> 00:07:20,680 刚刚好卡在7200点 140 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,779 所以我们尚未确认这个短期顶部 141 00:07:24,779 --> 00:07:30,740 也就是说指数接下来仍有再次上攻7350点的这个可能性 142 00:07:30,740 --> 00:07:33,980 除非收盘跌破了10日均线 143 00:07:33,980 --> 00:07:37,480 那才有可能进一步回调到月均线 144 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,139 目前月均线快达到7060 145 00:07:40,139 --> 00:07:43,269 这个此前的小平台支撑了 146 00:07:43,269 --> 00:07:46,939 如果伊朗和美国的局势没有进一步恶化的话 147 00:07:46,939 --> 00:07:49,480 呃那么嗯回调哈 148 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,740 最多最多到这就会拉起来 149 00:07:51,740 --> 00:07:53,589 又重新走高去 150 00:07:53,589 --> 00:07:55,790 这个挑战7350点 151 00:07:55,790 --> 00:07:58,189 如果战争真的重启了 152 00:07:58,189 --> 00:08:00,430 就中东又打成一锅粥了 153 00:08:00,430 --> 00:08:06,230 那下面7000点这个关键位置就会受到市场的考验了 154 00:08:06,230 --> 00:08:08,410 后面局势到底如何演变 155 00:08:08,410 --> 00:08:09,949 我们无法预测哈 156 00:08:09,949 --> 00:08:13,009 我可能川普他自己也不知道 157 00:08:17,250 --> 00:08:21,019 但是本周依然有众多名新科技股出财报 158 00:08:21,019 --> 00:08:22,939 其中周二盘前的SUPERF 159 00:08:22,939 --> 00:08:26,990 盘后的AMD光通信龙头LITE 160 00:08:26,990 --> 00:08:31,009 周三盘后c o h r arm呃UPROVIN 161 00:08:31,009 --> 00:08:33,649 周五的coo wave coin base等等 162 00:08:33,649 --> 00:08:37,590 都是吸引投资者关注的这个重要嗯 163 00:08:37,590 --> 00:08:40,798 热门股PONTIER呢刚刚盘后公布财报了 164 00:08:40,798 --> 00:08:42,719 公司一季度业绩超预期 165 00:08:42,719 --> 00:08:44,719 营收16.3亿美元 166 00:08:44,719 --> 00:08:46,440 同比增长85% 167 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,139 其中美国市场营收同比增长104% 168 00:08:50,139 --> 00:08:51,879 环比增长19% 169 00:08:51,879 --> 00:08:54,659 净利润为8.7亿美元 170 00:08:54,659 --> 00:08:56,659 净利润为53% 171 00:08:56,659 --> 00:09:02,389 公司还上调了全年营收指引至76.5亿到76.6亿美元 172 00:09:02,389 --> 00:09:06,610 公司原本预计是71.8亿到72亿美元 173 00:09:06,610 --> 00:09:08,789 所以呢股价盘后上涨了 174 00:09:08,789 --> 00:09:11,399 但是这个涨幅比较温和 175 00:09:11,399 --> 00:09:13,600 按照衍生品市场数据 176 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:18,289 交易员预期股价在财报后的波动幅度在8%左右哈 177 00:09:18,289 --> 00:09:21,129 若是按照现在这个盘后的涨幅 178 00:09:21,129 --> 00:09:23,000 call与put扯都亏钱 179 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,679 看明天盘前这个波动是不是会变大 180 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:31,690 今天收盘股价较历史高点呢已回落了约30% 181 00:09:31,690 --> 00:09:36,269 但是近两年股价累计涨幅仍然高达550% 182 00:09:36,269 --> 00:09:44,080 只能说现在风口就不在这个帕兰提尔这一块上面有其他什么贯通性啊 183 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,980 存储啊呃之类的哈 184 00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:53,019 所以呢PLUNTEER这个这么高的市盈率吸引力就没那么足了 185 00:09:53,019 --> 00:09:54,700 之前没有其他好的标的 186 00:09:54,700 --> 00:09:56,360 资金全往这一边跑 187 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:57,779 那现在有其他更好的标的 188 00:09:57,779 --> 00:09:59,669 当然是往其他地方走了 189 00:09:59,669 --> 00:10:02,389 挪威邮轮今天盘前公布了财报 190 00:10:02,389 --> 00:10:04,549 公司一季度营收23.3亿美元 191 00:10:04,549 --> 00:10:05,950 同比增长9.5% 192 00:10:05,950 --> 00:10:08,659 但是略低于预期的23.6亿美元 193 00:10:08,659 --> 00:10:10,960 净利润1.05亿美元 194 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,389 终于实现季度扭亏为盈 195 00:10:13,389 --> 00:10:13,669 额 196 00:10:13,669 --> 00:10:15,950 同比增长360% 197 00:10:15,950 --> 00:10:18,789 哈大超预期的4045万美元 198 00:10:18,789 --> 00:10:21,548 但是公司指引悲观 199 00:10:21,548 --> 00:10:25,428 将全年每股收益指引从原先2.38美元 200 00:10:25,428 --> 00:10:29,210 大幅削减至1.45到1.79美元 201 00:10:29,210 --> 00:10:31,370 受中东地区冲突影响 202 00:10:31,370 --> 00:10:35,839 公司面临燃油费用上涨和市场需求疲软的双重压力 203 00:10:35,839 --> 00:10:40,019 尤其对欧洲航线的夏季预定造成了负面冲击 204 00:10:40,019 --> 00:10:42,240 而且复苏的前景有限 205 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,039 另外呢管理层还承认了 206 00:10:44,039 --> 00:10:48,299 由于执行失误导致预订进度落后于目标公司 207 00:10:48,299 --> 00:10:50,980 目前总债务高达152亿美元 208 00:10:50,980 --> 00:10:53,059 净杠杆率为5.3倍 209 00:10:53,059 --> 00:10:54,960 债务水平仍然很高 210 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,568 哈资产负债表的灵活性受限 211 00:10:57,568 --> 00:11:00,729 嗯华尔街认为在需求稳定之前 212 00:11:00,729 --> 00:11:04,328 鉴于预定可见性有限和执行差距 213 00:11:04,328 --> 00:11:06,629 风险呢仍然偏向下行 214 00:11:06,629 --> 00:11:09,750 股价在4月17号触及年线阻力后 215 00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:11,149 再次掉头下新 216 00:11:11,149 --> 00:11:12,590 三大邮轮股里面 217 00:11:12,590 --> 00:11:14,509 就他表现最拉胯了 218 00:11:14,509 --> 00:11:16,849 虽然另外两个最近走势也疲软 219 00:11:16,849 --> 00:11:19,729 数据中心概念股今天集体上涨 220 00:11:19,729 --> 00:11:23,808 NBSIRENCOVIVO纷纷起飞 221 00:11:23,808 --> 00:11:26,480 哈NBIS股价呢创新高 222 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,980 公司计划以6.43亿美元现金和A类股票 223 00:11:29,980 --> 00:11:34,519 收购一家做AI推理和优化技术的初创公司 224 00:11:34,519 --> 00:11:38,220 让自家的平台呢可以变得更快更省钱更好用 225 00:11:38,220 --> 00:11:41,340 预计这笔交易将会在未来几周内完成 226 00:11:41,340 --> 00:11:44,019 投资者觉得这笔收购是一个利好呃 227 00:11:44,019 --> 00:11:45,759 所以市场呢也是很买账 228 00:11:45,759 --> 00:11:50,379 AREN呢位于德州的1.4几瓦sweet water嗯 229 00:11:50,379 --> 00:11:53,639 一数据中心已经正式通电 230 00:11:53,639 --> 00:11:59,200 由于行业目前高度关注能够获取大规模电力容量的项目 231 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,620 这个进展呢增强投资者对公司司执行能力 232 00:12:02,620 --> 00:12:06,568 以及满足市场对AI计算资源需求能力的信心 233 00:12:06,568 --> 00:12:09,908 此外资金也是赶在财报前预热 234 00:12:09,908 --> 00:12:11,700 这进一步提振了市场情 235 00:12:11,700 --> 00:12:14,139 分析师普遍乐观的预期呢 236 00:12:14,139 --> 00:12:17,840 也支撑了这种财报之前的这种活跃的表现 237 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:24,619 当前这个股票估值高度依赖于对未来AI数据中心增长的投机性预期哈 238 00:12:24,619 --> 00:12:25,558 与此同时 239 00:12:25,558 --> 00:12:28,658 由于建设阶段的大规模资本支出呢 240 00:12:28,658 --> 00:12:31,438 这公司也承受了严重的复制 241 00:12:31,438 --> 00:12:32,599 有现金流 242 00:12:32,599 --> 00:12:34,399 如果财报很利好的话 243 00:12:34,399 --> 00:12:39,129 公司有可能会借机宣布增发来融资扩张 244 00:12:39,129 --> 00:12:41,529 甲骨文这个废柴今天都立起来了 245 00:12:41,529 --> 00:12:44,190 重新站上了颈线和半年线 246 00:12:44,190 --> 00:12:46,620 技术面呢恢复了看涨信号 247 00:12:46,620 --> 00:12:50,980 后续有望去挑战年限大约二百十美元位置 248 00:12:50,980 --> 00:12:54,080 这一群小弟们最近烂得飞起 249 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,450 可是老大哥英伟达呢却肾虚盗汗 250 00:12:57,450 --> 00:13:00,350 在没有任何具体利空的情况之下 251 00:13:00,350 --> 00:13:02,870 股价莫名其妙持续走低 252 00:13:02,870 --> 00:13:04,730 按他以前的套路来说 253 00:13:04,730 --> 00:13:08,279 当股价横盘整理了大半年突破后呢 254 00:13:08,279 --> 00:13:12,500 通常都会拉出一段非常强劲的主升浪行情哈 255 00:13:12,500 --> 00:13:15,690 可是这一次重新突破了200美元后 256 00:13:15,690 --> 00:13:17,830 没走多远就又掉下来了 257 00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:22,419 好不容易收盘前给拉回去 258 00:13:22,419 --> 00:13:25,500 如果后面能够守住月均线 259 00:13:25,500 --> 00:13:28,690 还是有希望回踩后再次拉出主升浪 260 00:13:28,690 --> 00:13:30,789 要是守不住月均线 261 00:13:30,789 --> 00:13:35,049 那就要跌回到原先的这个震荡区间了 262 00:13:35,049 --> 00:13:38,029 更糟糕的是可能还会形成M双头 263 00:13:38,029 --> 00:13:40,690 所以月均线哈非常关键 264 00:13:40,690 --> 00:13:43,450 比特币日内一度突破了8.1万美元 265 00:13:43,450 --> 00:13:45,029 为三个多月来首次 266 00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:47,250 在经历了疲软第一季度后呢 267 00:13:47,250 --> 00:13:49,078 资金流入再次激增 268 00:13:49,078 --> 00:13:51,438 4月份是一个明显的转折点 269 00:13:51,438 --> 00:13:54,519 超过19亿美元流入比特币现货ETF 270 00:13:54,519 --> 00:13:56,929 5月初也延续了这个趋势 271 00:13:56,929 --> 00:14:00,669 股票市场的丰富情绪正在外溢到币圈 272 00:14:00,669 --> 00:14:02,860 很多交易员们开始欢呼 273 00:14:02,860 --> 00:14:04,500 币圈熊市结束 274 00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:06,600 新一轮牛市正在开启 275 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,250 可是这个价格连年限都没占上呢 276 00:14:10,250 --> 00:14:12,289 庆祝胜利还为时过早哈 277 00:14:12,289 --> 00:14:14,029 还是得走一步看一步 278 00:14:14,029 --> 00:14:15,080 不能呃 279 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:15,740 太乐观 280 00:14:15,740 --> 00:14:17,360 现在市场变化太大了 281 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,029 无论牛熊都要做好双手准备 282 00:14:20,029 --> 00:14:21,429 比特币今天走强 283 00:14:21,429 --> 00:14:24,690 也推动了美股加密货币概念股集体上涨 284 00:14:24,690 --> 00:14:27,669 加密货币交易所co贝斯转变了立场 285 00:14:27,669 --> 00:14:31,779 近日宣布支持这个CLARAT法案 286 00:14:31,779 --> 00:14:35,840 围绕稳定币收益条款的分歧已经达成了协议 287 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:40,279 加密交易所呢可以向持有稳定币的用户发放奖励 288 00:14:40,279 --> 00:14:44,230 但是银行业争取到了对这个机制的更多限制 289 00:14:44,549 --> 00:14:45,649 这个妥协的达成 290 00:14:45,649 --> 00:14:48,470 为此前陷入了僵局的该法案 291 00:14:48,470 --> 00:14:53,740 在参议院银行委员会推进投票呢扫清了重要障碍 292 00:14:54,039 --> 00:14:56,159 circle更是原地起飞哈 293 00:14:56,159 --> 00:14:57,799 股价跳空大涨 294 00:14:59,740 --> 00:15:05,250 联合包裹UPS和联邦快递被同一个利空砸到了头上 295 00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:07,169 据华尔街日报报道 296 00:15:07,169 --> 00:15:09,370 亚马逊推出供应链服务 297 00:15:09,370 --> 00:15:14,739 面向各种类型和规模的企业开放提供货运分销 298 00:15:14,739 --> 00:15:16,870 履约包裹运输能力 299 00:15:16,870 --> 00:15:23,990 这标志着亚马逊正在从电商平台进一步升级为全链路供应链服务商 300 00:15:23,990 --> 00:15:25,110 与此同时 301 00:15:25,110 --> 00:15:26,769 中东局势推高油价 302 00:15:26,769 --> 00:15:28,049 运输成本上升 303 00:15:28,049 --> 00:15:34,639 本来已经迫使UPS和那个联邦快递上条附加费与运价了 304 00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:38,539 在电商加速重构行业格局的背景下 305 00:15:38,539 --> 00:15:39,679 亚马逊问啊 306 00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:42,820 这些电商巨头不仅掌握了订单入口 307 00:15:42,820 --> 00:15:45,259 还在疯狂自建物流体系 308 00:15:45,259 --> 00:15:47,049 直接就挤压了嗯 309 00:15:47,049 --> 00:15:50,220 UPS与联邦快递的生存空间 310 00:15:50,220 --> 00:15:53,820 这两家物流公司虽然目前还是赚钱的 311 00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:57,379 但是长期将自身定位为送包裹的 312 00:15:57,379 --> 00:16:00,620 专注于降低最后一公里成本 313 00:16:00,620 --> 00:16:04,089 反而呢被锁死在了这个价值链的底端 314 00:16:04,089 --> 00:16:06,068 利润越做越薄 315 00:16:06,068 --> 00:16:10,039 即便现在主动放弃低价轻小件 316 00:16:10,039 --> 00:16:12,899 转向那些高价值的大件运输 317 00:16:12,899 --> 00:16:16,159 也只是缓解而难以逆转趋势 318 00:16:16,159 --> 00:16:17,200 嗯对比之下 319 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:21,419 亚马逊通过FBA把这个履约牢牢的抓在手里 320 00:16:21,419 --> 00:16:23,159 掌握订单与配送 321 00:16:23,159 --> 00:16:25,320 还顺带投资航空运力 322 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:26,379 物流资产 323 00:16:26,379 --> 00:16:28,789 整个闭环是越做越强 324 00:16:28,789 --> 00:16:32,789 如果当年联邦快递把10亿美元投资于shopper 325 00:16:32,789 --> 00:16:38,169 而不是以48亿美元去收购欧洲的t n t express的话 326 00:16:38,169 --> 00:16:40,649 现在的战略地位可能就完全不同啦 327 00:16:40,649 --> 00:16:42,529 当初那一笔10亿美元投资 328 00:16:42,529 --> 00:16:45,328 今天价值就可以翻到500亿美元哈 329 00:16:45,328 --> 00:16:46,448 更重要的是 330 00:16:46,448 --> 00:16:48,639 除了丰厚的投资回报之外呢 331 00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:54,279 联邦快递本来可以成为数百万SUPERF卖家的核心配送合作伙伴的 332 00:16:54,279 --> 00:16:55,629 而不是美国邮政 333 00:16:55,629 --> 00:16:57,409 现在在去追已经晚了 334 00:16:57,409 --> 00:17:01,409 因为superfine现在的市值已经是联邦快递的两倍了 335 00:17:01,409 --> 00:17:05,249 现在呢只能够考虑入股或者绑定一下嗯 336 00:17:05,249 --> 00:17:09,888 A7这样的电商平台往交易和履约上游走一走 337 00:17:09,888 --> 00:17:13,019 否则继续只做这个送货小弟 338 00:17:13,019 --> 00:17:15,740 那未来可能真的就沦为平台体系 339 00:17:15,740 --> 00:17:19,098 打工人被边缘化几乎只是时间的问题 340 00:17:19,098 --> 00:17:20,759 EBAY股价上涨 341 00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:26,700 因为game stop提出以每股125美元的现金加股票方式收购EBAY 342 00:17:26,700 --> 00:17:29,740 学透了就是要打造游戏行业的亚马逊 343 00:17:29,740 --> 00:17:34,589 这个出价比EBAY上周五收盘价溢价多出20% 344 00:17:34,589 --> 00:17:40,829 game stop表示已经获得了道明银行出具的初步非约束性的高度确信函 345 00:17:40,829 --> 00:17:43,799 承诺提供大约200亿美元的债务融资 346 00:17:43,799 --> 00:17:49,960 并且承诺在交割后12个月内实现大约20亿美元的年度成本解约 347 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,960 EBAY今天收盘价大约109美元 348 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,359 仍然大幅低于收购要约价值 349 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:01,019 这显示市场对这笔交易能否顺利完成持保留的态度 350 00:18:01,019 --> 00:18:04,299 因为game sub的市值才100多亿美元 351 00:18:04,299 --> 00:18:07,200 而EBAY市值为400多亿 352 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,519 近500亿美元 353 00:18:08,519 --> 00:18:11,470 后者的规模大约为前者的四倍 354 00:18:11,470 --> 00:18:14,470 这个是典型的蛇吞象案例嘛 355 00:18:14,470 --> 00:18:18,138 难怪市场对这笔交易额持保留态度哈 356 00:18:18,138 --> 00:18:22,019 尽管game stp账面持有大约90亿美元的现金 357 00:18:22,019 --> 00:18:24,699 并且呢已经在二级市场积累了一倍 358 00:18:24,699 --> 00:18:26,740 大约5%的股权嗯 359 00:18:26,740 --> 00:18:27,559 今年1月 360 00:18:27,559 --> 00:18:30,819 game stopper曾披露过一项薪酬方案 361 00:18:30,819 --> 00:18:35,480 若是CEO能将公司市值提升到1000亿美元 362 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:39,500 它将获得超过1.7亿股的期权股利 363 00:18:39,500 --> 00:18:41,960 这要是给他完成收购了哈 364 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,240 那不是直接就离目标更近一步了嘛 365 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,339 你想把公司市值做高 366 00:18:47,339 --> 00:18:51,200 不一定是花尽呃心思把业务做大做强 367 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,250 直接用那个各种金融手段 368 00:18:54,250 --> 00:18:57,750 债务融资收购别的公司就可以了 369 00:18:57,750 --> 00:19:00,470 用收购者的钱去收购啊 370 00:19:00,470 --> 00:19:02,269 抬高这个公司市值 371 00:19:02,269 --> 00:19:06,349 然后自己就可以美滋滋的把钱装到自己兜里面 372 00:19:06,349 --> 00:19:07,250 可以的 373 00:19:07,250 --> 00:19:09,690 诺基亚也可以好好学一学啊 374 00:19:09,690 --> 00:19:11,730 改天也可以去收购苹果嘛 375 00:19:11,730 --> 00:19:15,329 game super股价今天日内就剧烈波动行 376 00:19:15,329 --> 00:19:17,230 今天我们就简单说到这里吧 377 00:19:17,230 --> 00:19:19,200 那我们明天见拜拜
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