260511-高盛 韩国开盘 - 科斯达克、汽车、国防、KAI、SEC、互联网银行

1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,120
嘿大家好

2
00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,028
欢迎来到今天的晨间简报速递

3
00:00:04,028 --> 00:00:07,828
今天呢我们要带大家拆解一份干货满满的报告

4
00:00:07,828 --> 00:00:10,708
也就是高盛在2026年5月11日

5
00:00:10,708 --> 00:00:12,739
发布的这份重磅市场研报

6
00:00:12,739 --> 00:00:14,278
咱们直接切入正题

7
00:00:14,278 --> 00:00:16,599
看看目前到底有哪些神秘力量

8
00:00:16,599 --> 00:00:18,699
在暗中拉扯着韩国股市

9
00:00:18,699 --> 00:00:20,859
不管你是经验丰富的市场老手

10
00:00:20,859 --> 00:00:23,379
还是想要看懂亚太市场动向的学习者

11
00:00:23,379 --> 00:00:26,939
今天这期解读绝对能让你瞬间抓住重点

12
00:00:26,939 --> 00:00:30,138
我们先快速过一下今天的核心议程啊

13
00:00:30,138 --> 00:00:32,418
首先啊聊聊宏观视角

14
00:00:32,418 --> 00:00:35,469
跟韩国本土市场的重磅改革

15
00:00:35,469 --> 00:00:38,090
接着咱们把目光转向汽车

16
00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,939
国防和超酷的机器人板块

17
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,209
还有internet王行面临的施压

18
00:00:48,209 --> 00:00:51,750
然后咱们一起扒一扒第一季度的财报亮点

19
00:00:51,750 --> 00:00:53,429
最后也是最关键的

20
00:00:53,429 --> 00:00:55,390
咱们跟着外资的真金白银

21
00:00:55,390 --> 00:00:58,369
看看资金到底流向了哪里好了

22
00:00:58,369 --> 00:01:00,509
直接进入咱们的第一部分

23
00:01:00,509 --> 00:01:02,810
宏观视角与市场改革

24
00:01:02,810 --> 00:01:04,069
今早一睁眼

25
00:01:04,069 --> 00:01:06,930
全球市场的气氛可有点紧张啊

26
00:01:06,930 --> 00:01:09,269
特朗普那边直接甩出一句

27
00:01:09,269 --> 00:01:10,709
完全不可接受

28
00:01:10,709 --> 00:01:14,409
一口回绝了伊朗最新提出的停战方案

29
00:01:14,409 --> 00:01:15,709
这个表态一出来

30
00:01:15,709 --> 00:01:18,519
避险情绪可以说是瞬间拉满

31
00:01:18,519 --> 00:01:20,939
美国股指期货应声下跌

32
00:01:20,939 --> 00:01:22,700
那在这样一个大背景下

33
00:01:22,700 --> 00:01:25,040
KOSSPI指数今天开盘

34
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,289
肯定要面临不小的下行压力

35
00:01:27,289 --> 00:01:29,968
就这是我们今天面临的外部大环境

36
00:01:29,968 --> 00:01:32,530
可以说是牵一发而动全身

37
00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:35,689
不过呢虽然外面风大雨大

38
00:01:35,689 --> 00:01:39,489
韩国本土这边却在酝酿着一个大洲

39
00:01:39,489 --> 00:01:41,079
到今年10月份

40
00:01:41,079 --> 00:01:44,319
韩国政府打算对KOSDAQ

41
00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,799
也就是咱们常说的韩国创业板动一次大手术

42
00:01:48,799 --> 00:01:52,060
整整1820家上市公司

43
00:01:52,060 --> 00:01:54,340
要被硬性划分为三个等级

44
00:01:54,340 --> 00:01:55,319
高级市场

45
00:01:55,319 --> 00:01:56,280
标准市场

46
00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:57,759
还有管理市场

47
00:01:57,759 --> 00:02:00,218
这可不是简单分个类就算了

48
00:02:00,218 --> 00:02:02,819
这简直是要对整个市场生态

49
00:02:02,819 --> 00:02:04,930
进行一场彻底的大洗牌

50
00:02:04,930 --> 00:02:07,329
那这波操作到底图啥呢

51
00:02:07,329 --> 00:02:10,310
说白了就是要把机构的真金白银

52
00:02:10,310 --> 00:02:11,349
精准地

53
00:02:11,349 --> 00:02:15,680
强力地灌到那前100家最优质的头部公司里

54
00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,319
至于那些表现不醒的

55
00:02:17,319 --> 00:02:17,900
对不起

56
00:02:17,900 --> 00:02:19,379
加速退市进程

57
00:02:19,379 --> 00:02:22,719
而且他们还要专门给中等体量的成长股

58
00:02:22,719 --> 00:02:25,399
搞个独立的指数和ETF

59
00:02:25,399 --> 00:02:27,679
这套组合拳会在7月份

60
00:02:27,679 --> 00:02:31,960
KOSDAQ成立30周年的庆典上最终敲定

61
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:32,639
说实话

62
00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,079
这招胡萝卜加大棒玩的很溜

63
00:02:35,079 --> 00:02:36,359
目的非常明确

64
00:02:36,359 --> 00:02:40,239
就是要从根子上把市场的整体质量给提上来

65
00:02:40,239 --> 00:02:42,449
接下来是第二部分

66
00:02:42,449 --> 00:02:44,710
咱们来看看汽车国防

67
00:02:44,710 --> 00:02:48,139
还有大家最关心的机器人板块

68
00:02:48,139 --> 00:02:51,719
现在的汽车板块真的特别有意思

69
00:02:51,719 --> 00:02:54,659
高盛的报告里提到了一组绝佳的对比

70
00:02:54,659 --> 00:02:56,020
你看现代汽车

71
00:02:56,020 --> 00:02:57,159
他现在的股价

72
00:02:57,159 --> 00:02:57,860
其实已经

73
00:02:57,860 --> 00:03:00,419
很大程度上把收购波士顿动力

74
00:03:00,419 --> 00:03:03,240
带来的那部分预期价值给吃干抹净了

75
00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,740
但是你回头看看起亚汽车

76
00:03:05,740 --> 00:03:08,709
同样是站在尖端机器人领域的风口上

77
00:03:08,709 --> 00:03:11,609
起亚的估值现在看起来就相当亲民了

78
00:03:11,609 --> 00:03:12,500
换句话说

79
00:03:12,500 --> 00:03:15,060
想要同样的机器人赛道红利

80
00:03:15,060 --> 00:03:18,120
起亚目前的性价比简直可以说是拉满了

81
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,550
绝对是一个值得重点关注的信号

82
00:03:20,550 --> 00:03:22,449
再来看看国防领域

83
00:03:22,449 --> 00:03:26,909
像韩华航空航天和现代ROUTEN这两个老牌劲旅

84
00:03:26,909 --> 00:03:30,250
现在正疯狂闪烁着入场的绿灯

85
00:03:30,250 --> 00:03:31,830
你可能会问诶

86
00:03:31,830 --> 00:03:34,930
他们第一季度的利润不是不太好看吗

87
00:03:34,930 --> 00:03:37,460
千万别被这个表象骗了

88
00:03:37,460 --> 00:03:39,099
高盛说的很清楚

89
00:03:39,099 --> 00:03:41,939
这纯粹是季节性因素导致的

90
00:03:41,939 --> 00:03:44,139
到了第二季度和下半年

91
00:03:44,139 --> 00:03:45,509
你再看业绩

92
00:03:45,509 --> 00:03:47,590
大概率会有一波强势反弹

93
00:03:47,590 --> 00:03:50,439
所以啊咱们的眼光要放长远一点

94
00:03:50,439 --> 00:03:52,460
我们还挖到了一个猛料

95
00:03:52,460 --> 00:03:56,710
韩国航空宇宙产业也就是大家熟悉的KAI

96
00:03:56,710 --> 00:03:59,469
据说刚刚和现代汽车集团

97
00:03:59,469 --> 00:04:02,280
签了一份超级重磅的备忘录

98
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,280
双方要联手干嘛呢

99
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:09,199
搞采用电动航空动力系统的先进空中交通

100
00:04:09,199 --> 00:04:09,990
飞行器

101
00:04:09,990 --> 00:04:13,250
听起来是不是像科幻电影里的飞行汽车

102
00:04:13,250 --> 00:04:13,949
没错

103
00:04:13,949 --> 00:04:17,149
他们就是在把科幻带入现实

104
00:04:17,149 --> 00:04:19,168
这种前沿的跨界合作

105
00:04:19,168 --> 00:04:23,129
未来甚至可能彻底颠覆咱们的城市出行方式

106
00:04:23,129 --> 00:04:24,889
实在太炸裂了

107
00:04:24,889 --> 00:04:25,410
好了

108
00:04:25,410 --> 00:04:27,170
翻篇进入第三部分

109
00:04:31,300 --> 00:04:35,180
三星电子这边的气氛可是紧张到了极点

110
00:04:35,180 --> 00:04:38,720
今天明天这两天绝对是关键倒计时

111
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,079
在国家劳动关系委员会的介入下

112
00:04:41,079 --> 00:04:44,560
劳资双方正在就奖金问题进行最后的一搏

113
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,240
为什么这么极限拉扯

114
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,079
因为如果谈不拢

115
00:04:51,139 --> 00:04:51,839
朋友们

116
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,798
这绝不是一家公司内部吵吵架那么简单

117
00:04:54,798 --> 00:04:56,619
如果三星真的停工了

118
00:04:56,619 --> 00:04:59,199
那对整个全球半导体供应链来说

119
00:04:59,199 --> 00:05:01,908
都将是一次无法忽视的大地震

120
00:05:01,908 --> 00:05:04,028
而在互联网银行这边

121
00:05:04,028 --> 00:05:07,658
kao bank和KBANK正顶着一座大山

122
00:05:07,658 --> 00:05:11,358
韩国政府正在给他们施加巨大的监管压力

123
00:05:11,358 --> 00:05:13,870
硬性规定到2028年

124
00:05:13,870 --> 00:05:15,689
他们带给中低信用

125
00:05:15,689 --> 00:05:18,790
也就是高风险借款人的强制比例

126
00:05:18,790 --> 00:05:21,300
必须飙升到35%

127
00:05:21,300 --> 00:05:22,980
35%啊

128
00:05:22,980 --> 00:05:25,329
这个数字真的相当惊人

129
00:05:25,329 --> 00:05:26,370
你想想看

130
00:05:26,370 --> 00:05:30,170
强迫互联网银行背上这么高比例的高风险

131
00:05:30,170 --> 00:05:31,009
贷款包袱

132
00:05:31,009 --> 00:05:32,339
市场能不慌吗

133
00:05:32,339 --> 00:05:35,420
大家都在死死盯着他们未来的资产质量

134
00:05:35,420 --> 00:05:37,019
生怕哪天暴雷

135
00:05:37,019 --> 00:05:37,879
也难怪

136
00:05:37,879 --> 00:05:40,879
现在市场上对caco bank和KBANK的情绪

137
00:05:40,879 --> 00:05:42,259
悲观到了极点

138
00:05:42,259 --> 00:05:43,060
只能说

139
00:05:43,060 --> 00:05:46,699
这就是政策大棒跟金融机构风险控制之间

140
00:05:46,699 --> 00:05:48,759
一场硬碰硬的较量啊

141
00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:50,879
咱们稍微换个心情

142
00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:52,379
来到第四部分

143
00:05:52,379 --> 00:05:55,420
一起看看第一季度的财报成绩单

144
00:05:55,420 --> 00:05:58,319
这里有一个非常鲜明的反差对比

145
00:05:58,319 --> 00:06:02,759
一边是KAO直接交出了211百一十亿韩元

146
00:06:02,759 --> 00:06:04,319
营业利润的傲然成绩

147
00:06:04,319 --> 00:06:05,490
远超预期

148
00:06:05,490 --> 00:06:07,490
人家靠着稳如泰山的talk

149
00:06:07,490 --> 00:06:10,449
KBS广告收入和核心平台的回血

150
00:06:10,449 --> 00:06:13,329
直接被高盛贴上了买入的标签

151
00:06:13,329 --> 00:06:17,029
另一边呢YG娱乐的表现就有点不温不火了

152
00:06:17,029 --> 00:06:17,930
勉强及格

153
00:06:17,930 --> 00:06:19,500
拿了个中性评级

154
00:06:19,500 --> 00:06:20,360
为啥呢

155
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,970
因为他们现在正处在一个青黄不接的尴尬期

156
00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:26,529
主力女团baby monster还在爬坡

157
00:06:26,529 --> 00:06:28,550
black pink又不在活跃期

158
00:06:28,550 --> 00:06:31,509
盈利势头自然就显得有点使不上劲儿

159
00:06:31,509 --> 00:06:33,389
你看这就是执行力

160
00:06:33,389 --> 00:06:34,529
加上周期节奏

161
00:06:34,529 --> 00:06:37,658
生生劈出了两条截然不同的估值路线

162
00:06:37,658 --> 00:06:40,298
最后咱们来到第五部分

163
00:06:40,298 --> 00:06:43,218
也是很多人最爱看的追踪

164
00:06:43,218 --> 00:06:45,829
真金白银的资金流向

165
00:06:45,829 --> 00:06:47,529
咱们跟着钱走啊

166
00:06:47,529 --> 00:06:50,288
看看外斯现在都在买啥卖啥

167
00:06:50,288 --> 00:06:53,408
这些聪明钱简直是在疯狂扫货

168
00:06:53,408 --> 00:06:54,269
现代汽车

169
00:06:54,269 --> 00:06:57,759
还有像rainbow robotics这种机器人概念股

170
00:06:57,759 --> 00:06:59,740
但从演是一次宗师

171
00:06:59,740 --> 00:07:01,139
非常有意思的是

172
00:07:01,139 --> 00:07:03,000
他们正在大手笔的抛售

173
00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,720
三星电子和SK海力士这些传统的科技硬件巨头

174
00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:08,850
看明白了吗

175
00:07:08,850 --> 00:07:10,230
资金正在大搬家

176
00:07:10,230 --> 00:07:11,750
从传统的硬件赛道

177
00:07:11,750 --> 00:07:14,529
头也不回地扎进了机器人和自动化

178
00:07:14,529 --> 00:07:17,019
这些具有新叙事的前沿领域

179
00:07:17,019 --> 00:07:19,860
那做空机构都在忙些什么呢

180
00:07:19,860 --> 00:07:21,779
他们的目标非常集中

181
00:07:21,779 --> 00:07:23,689
而且下手极狠

182
00:07:23,689 --> 00:07:27,750
你看韩美半导体现在简直成了众矢之得

183
00:07:27,750 --> 00:07:31,050
以24percent的做空比例高居榜首

184
00:07:31,050 --> 00:07:34,410
成了整个市场里被做空最惨的股票

185
00:07:34,410 --> 00:07:38,990
紧跟在他后面的是三星物产和HD现代宠公

186
00:07:38,990 --> 00:07:41,910
这些空头压住其实就是一面镜子

187
00:07:41,910 --> 00:07:43,089
直接告诉你

188
00:07:43,089 --> 00:07:44,060
短时间内

189
00:07:44,060 --> 00:07:47,379
市场资金对哪些板块的估值或者是基本面

190
00:07:47,379 --> 00:07:49,629
抱着最大的怀疑态度好了

191
00:07:49,629 --> 00:07:52,310
今天的开盘钟声马上就要敲响了

192
00:07:52,310 --> 00:07:53,290
在结束之前

193
00:07:53,290 --> 00:07:55,350
我想抛给大家一个终极问题

194
00:07:55,350 --> 00:07:59,319
今天主导韩国股市的到底会是哪一股力量

195
00:07:59,319 --> 00:08:03,720
是KOSDK分级改革和先建空中交通机器人

196
00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,819
技术创新带来的那股巨大的系统性拉力

197
00:08:06,819 --> 00:08:08,800
还是全球地缘政治冲击

198
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,399
市场就是这样永远充满了博弈

199
00:08:15,399 --> 00:08:17,319
希望今天的这份深度拆解

200
00:08:17,319 --> 00:08:19,800
能帮你在这张错综复杂的信息网里

201
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,100
找到清晰的脉络

202
00:08:21,100 --> 00:08:22,660
非常感谢大家的陪伴

203
00:08:22,660 --> 00:08:25,199
咱们下期解读不见不散

评论采集失败

采集完成，该视频无弹幕