BV1hV5x68EFA · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,240 Hello 2 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:00,680 大家好 3 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:03,049 欢迎来到今天的深度图解 4 00:00:03,049 --> 00:00:06,250 今天咱们要聊的是一个非常硬核的企业 5 00:00:06,250 --> 00:00:07,049 反转故事 6 00:00:07,049 --> 00:00:08,769 也就是蒙牛浴业 7 00:00:08,769 --> 00:00:12,580 在2026年上演着这场强势复苏 8 00:00:12,580 --> 00:00:16,460 咱们今天所有的硬核干货都直接来自高盛 9 00:00:16,460 --> 00:00:20,570 在2026年5月份发布的一份深度投研报告 10 00:00:20,570 --> 00:00:22,129 这份报告可不一般 11 00:00:22,129 --> 00:00:26,030 是分析师们在五一小长假之后的消费者巡展里 12 00:00:26,030 --> 00:00:28,300 敏锐捕捉到的行业拐点 13 00:00:28,300 --> 00:00:29,359 废话不多说 14 00:00:29,359 --> 00:00:30,960 咱们直接开始拆解 15 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,020 在咱们一头扎进蒙牛的财务数据之前呢 16 00:00:34,020 --> 00:00:36,979 得先跳出来看看现在的宏观大环境 17 00:00:36,979 --> 00:00:38,840 大家在生活中肯定也有感觉 18 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:39,939 现在的消费者啊 19 00:00:39,939 --> 00:00:42,479 可以说是经历了一场非常深刻的转变 20 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:43,820 随着经济转型 21 00:00:43,820 --> 00:00:45,700 大家花钱越来越理智了 22 00:00:45,700 --> 00:00:48,179 也就是市场出现了一种像性价比 23 00:00:48,179 --> 00:00:50,079 或者说价值导向的转变 24 00:00:50,079 --> 00:00:52,450 大家买东西都要精打细算对吧 25 00:00:52,450 --> 00:00:55,409 正是这种大环境对价值的重新审视 26 00:00:55,409 --> 00:00:57,189 给蒙牛的这场复苏之战 27 00:00:57,189 --> 00:00:59,420 搭好了一个非常特别的舞台 28 00:00:59,420 --> 00:01:02,420 今天咱们的拆解逻辑非常清晰 29 00:01:02,420 --> 00:01:03,859 一共六个板块 30 00:01:03,859 --> 00:01:07,780 咱们会先聊聊2026年乳业的整体复苏大势 31 00:01:07,780 --> 00:01:11,799 接着看看一季度里液态奶是怎么领跑业绩的 32 00:01:11,799 --> 00:01:15,209 然后聊聊奶粉和奶酪这些非奶品类 33 00:01:15,209 --> 00:01:18,890 再盘点一下蒙牛是怎么玩转新零售渠道的 34 00:01:18,890 --> 00:01:19,730 第五步 35 00:01:19,730 --> 00:01:22,168 拆解他们的成本和利润率管理 36 00:01:22,168 --> 00:01:26,129 最后当然要看看高盛最终给出了怎样的投资裁 37 00:01:26,129 --> 00:01:27,500 决好了 38 00:01:27,500 --> 00:01:29,480 咱们先进入第一部分 39 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,540 看看2026年 40 00:01:31,540 --> 00:01:35,198 乳制品行业是如何迎来复苏曙光的 41 00:01:35,198 --> 00:01:38,319 高盛的分析师团队在5月8号的时候 42 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,438 直接跟盟友管理层碰了个面 43 00:01:40,438 --> 00:01:43,039 并且传达了一个非常明确的信号 44 00:01:43,039 --> 00:01:45,078 他们非常看好2026年 45 00:01:45,078 --> 00:01:46,938 乳制品商业的触底反弹 46 00:01:46,938 --> 00:01:51,090 而且这个看法也得到了盟友管理层的强烈共鸣 47 00:01:51,090 --> 00:01:51,849 要知道 48 00:01:51,849 --> 00:01:55,150 这可不是分析师坐在办公室里拍脑袋想出来的 49 00:01:55,150 --> 00:01:59,019 这全都是来自企业最前线的真实体感 50 00:01:59,019 --> 00:02:01,859 这里咱们不得不提一个非常关键的概念 51 00:02:01,859 --> 00:02:03,289 叫需求触底 52 00:02:03,289 --> 00:02:04,728 简单来说就是什么呢 53 00:02:04,728 --> 00:02:07,688 就是消费者的需求终于不往下掉了 54 00:02:07,688 --> 00:02:08,699 跌无可跌 55 00:02:08,699 --> 00:02:09,979 开始稳住了 56 00:02:09,979 --> 00:02:11,689 甚至开始回暖了 57 00:02:11,689 --> 00:02:13,250 蒙牛管理层就发现 58 00:02:13,250 --> 00:02:16,189 原奶的价格其实很大程度上已经见底了 59 00:02:16,189 --> 00:02:19,629 而且相比于大家觉得极其难熬的2025年 60 00:02:19,629 --> 00:02:23,069 现在零售端的杀价和内卷也已经缓和了不少 61 00:02:23,069 --> 00:02:26,800 也就是说最坏的苦日子大概率已经过去了 62 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,939 既然大环境企稳了 63 00:02:28,939 --> 00:02:30,939 那具体业绩到底怎么样呢 64 00:02:30,939 --> 00:02:32,680 咱们就进入第二部分 65 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,590 一季度的绝对亮点 66 00:02:34,590 --> 00:02:37,399 液态奶是如何大获全胜的 67 00:02:37,399 --> 00:02:38,438 说实话 68 00:02:38,438 --> 00:02:41,239 2025年和2026年的数据对比 69 00:02:41,239 --> 00:02:42,900 真的非常有戏剧性 70 00:02:42,900 --> 00:02:45,219 你看在2025年的时候 71 00:02:45,219 --> 00:02:49,120 盟友的基础白奶可以说是遭遇了双位数的暴跌 72 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,759 就连特仑苏这种高端奶也跟着掉了 73 00:02:51,759 --> 00:02:53,199 中到高单位数 74 00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:54,590 但你猜怎么着 75 00:02:54,590 --> 00:02:56,969 到了2026年第一季度 76 00:02:56,969 --> 00:02:58,550 剧情直接反转 77 00:02:58,550 --> 00:03:00,590 液态奶不仅由负转正 78 00:03:00,590 --> 00:03:03,709 还打出了高质量的中高单位数增长 79 00:03:03,709 --> 00:03:04,748 这说明啊 80 00:03:04,748 --> 00:03:07,209 老百姓在春节期间的消费需求 81 00:03:07,209 --> 00:03:10,110 确实迎来了实打实的强劲反常 82 00:03:10,110 --> 00:03:13,000 咱们来具体盘点一下这份成绩单 83 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,699 特仑苏直接打了个漂亮的翻身仗 84 00:03:15,699 --> 00:03:19,329 从去年的下滑一跃飙升到了双位数的增长 85 00:03:19,329 --> 00:03:22,840 但最让我惊掉下巴的其实是鲜奶这个品类 86 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,900 就算市场竞争那么惨烈 87 00:03:24,900 --> 00:03:26,680 鲜奶在22年25亿 88 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,460 营收突破40亿的基础上 89 00:03:28,460 --> 00:03:31,680 今年一季度居然还狂飙了20percent的以上 90 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,080 真的太猛了 91 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,699 UHT常温男也是稳扎稳打 92 00:03:35,699 --> 00:03:37,620 拿下了中高单位数的增长 93 00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:39,599 4月份势头依然很猛 94 00:03:39,599 --> 00:03:42,479 还有那个规模已经到了六七十亿的低端酸奶 95 00:03:42,479 --> 00:03:43,900 也稳稳保住了底盘 96 00:03:43,900 --> 00:03:45,319 实现了小幅增长 97 00:03:45,319 --> 00:03:47,729 这简直就是全线开花啊 98 00:03:47,729 --> 00:03:48,770 当然了 99 00:03:48,770 --> 00:03:52,060 盟友现在的底牌可不只是卖牛奶 100 00:03:52,060 --> 00:03:53,740 咱们进入第三部分 101 00:03:53,740 --> 00:03:54,900 超越牛奶 102 00:03:54,900 --> 00:03:58,180 看看配方奶粉和奶酪的惊喜表现 103 00:03:58,180 --> 00:04:01,580 最关键的信号是蒙牛的第二增长曲线 104 00:04:01,580 --> 00:04:03,960 现在可以说是非常清晰了 105 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:05,960 婴儿又配方奶粉和奶酪 106 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,349 在一季度直接拿下了双位数以上的收入增长 107 00:04:09,349 --> 00:04:10,289 细看的话 108 00:04:10,289 --> 00:04:12,629 雅士利和成人营养品涨了大概30 109 00:04:12,629 --> 00:04:14,770 percent最亮眼的是谁呢 110 00:04:14,770 --> 00:04:15,840 贝拉米 111 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,139 靠着跨境电商和在东南亚市场的疯狂输出 112 00:04:19,139 --> 00:04:22,240 他的一季度增长率居然冲到了60% 113 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:23,658 到70% 114 00:04:23,658 --> 00:04:24,538 要知道 115 00:04:24,538 --> 00:04:27,579 贝拉米2025年的销售额就快十个亿了 116 00:04:27,579 --> 00:04:29,548 虽然去年还稍微亏点钱 117 00:04:29,548 --> 00:04:33,149 但管理层对2026年的盈利改善是信心满满 118 00:04:33,149 --> 00:04:34,168 同时呢 119 00:04:34,168 --> 00:04:37,678 奶酪依然是那个势头越来越猛的超级品类 120 00:04:37,678 --> 00:04:38,639 听到这儿 121 00:04:38,639 --> 00:04:41,658 你脑子里可能已经冒出一个大大的问号了 122 00:04:41,658 --> 00:04:45,418 刚才咱们明明说大环境都在追求极致性价比 123 00:04:45,418 --> 00:04:47,718 那蒙牛到底施了什么魔法 124 00:04:47,718 --> 00:04:52,168 能在这种情况下还能让全线产品卖得这么好 125 00:04:52,168 --> 00:04:53,689 带着这个疑问 126 00:04:53,689 --> 00:04:55,540 咱们进入第四部分 127 00:04:55,540 --> 00:04:58,660 盟友是如何驾驭新零售渠道的 128 00:04:58,660 --> 00:05:02,680 这里的打法就是他们一季度爆发的真正演情 129 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,000 刀盛的报告里也点明了 130 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,220 积极去拥抱渠道的变化 131 00:05:07,220 --> 00:05:09,920 依然是盟友现在的核心杀手锏儿 132 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,850 你看新渠道现在可是立了大功了 133 00:05:12,850 --> 00:05:16,360 销售贡献率已经突破了二十百分之的大关 134 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,579 这里面就包括了各大电商平台会员店 135 00:05:19,579 --> 00:05:21,500 主打低价的折扣零售商 136 00:05:21,500 --> 00:05:23,110 还有o two o这些渠道 137 00:05:23,110 --> 00:05:25,629 也就是说消费者去哪儿买东西 138 00:05:25,629 --> 00:05:27,649 蒙纽就把货铺到哪儿 139 00:05:27,649 --> 00:05:29,029 不过你肯定会想 140 00:05:29,029 --> 00:05:31,850 像那种折扣店东西卖的那么便宜 141 00:05:31,850 --> 00:05:33,509 毛利率肯定很低呀 142 00:05:33,509 --> 00:05:35,798 这不等于赔本赚吆客吗 143 00:05:35,798 --> 00:05:38,699 这就不得不佩服管理层的纪律性了 144 00:05:38,699 --> 00:05:40,350 他们算得很清楚 145 00:05:40,350 --> 00:05:42,709 折扣渠道的毛利率确实低 146 00:05:42,709 --> 00:05:46,230 但别忘了在那卖货的费用开支也低呀 147 00:05:46,230 --> 00:05:49,149 这俩一中和其实是能打平的 148 00:05:49,149 --> 00:05:50,589 更硬核的是 149 00:05:50,589 --> 00:05:52,870 如果真的到了不赚钱的地步 150 00:05:52,870 --> 00:05:56,259 他们会果断去调整包装或者采购结构 151 00:05:56,259 --> 00:06:00,009 绝对不会为了冲销量而去接那些亏本的单子 152 00:06:00,009 --> 00:06:03,209 这种清醒的头脑对于企业反转来说 153 00:06:03,209 --> 00:06:05,009 真的是太关键了 154 00:06:05,009 --> 00:06:06,850 光会卖货还不行 155 00:06:06,850 --> 00:06:09,399 还得能把利润留在口袋里 156 00:06:09,399 --> 00:06:11,399 这就到了我们的第五部分 157 00:06:11,399 --> 00:06:16,069 看看蒙牛是怎么精打细算管理成本和利润率的 158 00:06:16,069 --> 00:06:17,350 高盛专门给我们 159 00:06:17,350 --> 00:06:20,439 拆解了盟友的战术性利润防御清单 160 00:06:20,439 --> 00:06:21,139 第一招 161 00:06:21,139 --> 00:06:22,779 原奶要是涨价了怎么办 162 00:06:22,779 --> 00:06:24,699 那就把销售费用率降下来 163 00:06:24,699 --> 00:06:26,939 死死守住核心的营业利润率 164 00:06:26,939 --> 00:06:27,680 第二招 165 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:28,459 包装材料 166 00:06:28,459 --> 00:06:29,860 他们主要用的是利落包 167 00:06:29,860 --> 00:06:32,000 而且人家跟利落是签了长约的 168 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:33,420 成本早就锁定好了 169 00:06:33,420 --> 00:06:34,269 非常可控 170 00:06:34,269 --> 00:06:35,189 这里插一句 171 00:06:35,189 --> 00:06:37,569 物流成本是跟油价直接挂钩的 172 00:06:37,569 --> 00:06:39,000 调整起来非常快 173 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:39,839 最后一点 174 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,100 2025年奶粉资产减值已经压到了5亿以下 175 00:06:43,100 --> 00:06:44,259 管理层透了个底 176 00:06:44,259 --> 00:06:46,689 2026年这个数字还会降到最低 177 00:06:46,689 --> 00:06:48,189 这一套组合拳打下来 178 00:06:48,189 --> 00:06:49,990 防守那是相当严密 179 00:06:49,990 --> 00:06:52,189 说了这么多业务上的事儿 180 00:06:52,189 --> 00:06:53,889 对于各位投资人来说 181 00:06:53,889 --> 00:06:57,500 最实在的肯定还是真金白银的回报 182 00:06:57,500 --> 00:06:59,240 管理层直接放话了 183 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,870 靠着2025年底手头的净现金 184 00:07:01,870 --> 00:07:04,709 再加上一年大概能造出60亿人民币 185 00:07:04,709 --> 00:07:06,680 自由现金流的超强造血能力 186 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,000 他们非常有底气 187 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,040 会逐步提高股息的支付率 188 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,029 让美股的分红继续涨 189 00:07:12,029 --> 00:07:13,449 现金流这么健康 190 00:07:13,449 --> 00:07:16,990 这就等于给股东吃了一颗大大的定心丸呢 191 00:07:16,990 --> 00:07:19,470 好啦盘点了这么多基本面 192 00:07:19,470 --> 00:07:21,509 咱们终于来到了第六部分 193 00:07:21,509 --> 00:07:22,850 也是最后一部分 194 00:07:22,850 --> 00:07:24,819 高盛的最终裁决 195 00:07:24,819 --> 00:07:28,600 看看高盛过去给出的评级和目标价走势 196 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,540 其实咱们心里都有数 197 00:07:30,540 --> 00:07:33,259 过去这市场环境真的是风起云涌 198 00:07:33,259 --> 00:07:34,120 波动不断 199 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:38,560 但是在经历了这么深度的调研和数据拆解之后 200 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,839 高盛的分析师团队对于2026年的盟友 201 00:07:41,839 --> 00:07:45,538 依然毫不犹豫的甩出了一个词买入 202 00:07:45,538 --> 00:07:46,598 大家注意了 203 00:07:46,598 --> 00:07:49,019 这里有一个极具冲击力的数字 204 00:07:49,019 --> 00:07:50,798 22.8percent 205 00:07:50,798 --> 00:07:52,089 这代表什么呢 206 00:07:52,089 --> 00:07:53,930 这代表在分析师眼里 207 00:07:53,930 --> 00:07:56,069 这个股票在未来12个月里 208 00:07:56,069 --> 00:07:59,149 足足有将近23percent的上涨潜力 209 00:07:59,149 --> 00:08:01,209 我们来对一下具体点位 210 00:08:01,209 --> 00:08:04,129 以5月8号报告发布前的收盘价 211 00:08:04,129 --> 00:08:06,180 17.43港元为起点 212 00:08:06,180 --> 00:08:09,259 高盛直接把未来12个月的目标价定在了 213 00:08:09,259 --> 00:08:10,720 21.40港元 214 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,660 这个数字可不是随便给的 215 00:08:12,660 --> 00:08:15,660 是按2027年15.1倍的预期市盈率 216 00:08:15,660 --> 00:08:16,629 算出来的 217 00:08:16,629 --> 00:08:18,899 这就释放了一个非常强烈的信号 218 00:08:18,899 --> 00:08:20,980 资本市场是真的非常看好 219 00:08:20,980 --> 00:08:23,100 蒙牛这一波从泥潭里爬出来 220 00:08:23,100 --> 00:08:26,168 并且重新找回赚钱能力的绝地反击 221 00:08:26,168 --> 00:08:26,869 好了 222 00:08:26,869 --> 00:08:29,608 今天的深度拆解到这里就接近尾声了 223 00:08:29,608 --> 00:08:31,149 咱们跟着高盛的视角 224 00:08:31,149 --> 00:08:33,298 一路看了液态奶的触底反弹 225 00:08:33,298 --> 00:08:34,979 海外市场的疯狂扩张 226 00:08:34,979 --> 00:08:36,538 新渠道的精准卡位 227 00:08:36,538 --> 00:08:39,399 还有那套滴水不漏的成本防守战术 228 00:08:39,399 --> 00:08:40,820 但是咱们都知道 229 00:08:40,820 --> 00:08:41,980 商场如战场 230 00:08:41,980 --> 00:08:43,340 变数永远都在 231 00:08:43,340 --> 00:08:45,639 所以最后我想留一个问题给大家 232 00:08:45,639 --> 00:08:48,220 盟友现在吃到的这些新渠道红利 233 00:08:48,220 --> 00:08:51,200 还有那些主打高蛋白功能性的新产品线 234 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:52,139 真的足够硬 235 00:08:52,139 --> 00:08:54,440 核能变成他们长期护城河 236 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,580 支撑住这场始于2026年的惊人反转吗 237 00:08:57,580 --> 00:09:00,639 这个问题就留给屏幕前的你去细细品味了 238 00:09:00,639 --> 00:09:03,320 感谢各位专注的学习者收看本期图解 239 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:04,740 咱们下期再见
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