美股的毒药今天开幕，特朗普的解药突然发布。【2026-06-11】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天市场好转

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标普指数上涨了127.31点

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涨幅1.7%

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五指数收盘时站上5日线

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短线反弹的希望出现了

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有了今天的反弹

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明天大盘可能会继续反弹

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以迎接SPACEX上市

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨640.16点

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涨幅2.5%

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四

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算是大涨一天

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反弹力量还不错

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并且爬上了5日线

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图形略有好转

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明天因为资金面改善

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可能还会继续反弹

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今天在下午01:28分左右

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股市突然拉升

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原油下跌

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在此之前

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川普准备要在今天猛烈攻击伊朗

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要夺取哈尔克岛

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接管石油基础设施

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但是就在当天1.28分

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股市风云突变

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川普发帖表示

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并获得批准

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我作为美利坚合众国总统

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已经取消了原定于今晚对伊朗的空袭和轰炸

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所有相关方

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包括美国

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以色列和一系列中东国家

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均已在概念和细节上批准的磋商

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结果和最终条款

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海上封锁将继续有效

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直至该协议最终签署

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签署时间和地点将很快公布

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随后川普说

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协议可能会在周末签署

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副总统旺斯将会出席

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所以说在猛烈攻击的最后时间到来之前

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川普又塌口了

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那么taco交易是怎么做的呢

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以前的taco行情是怎么样的呢

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那得来重温一下

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taco交易是从川普总是临阵退缩而来

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极限施压后又迅速延期的谈判风格

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一遍又一遍的重演

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让市场抓住了规律

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T口由四个阶段组成

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第一个阶段是川普释放极具毁灭性的威胁

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故意制造极限压力

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第二阶段是

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市场因为恐慌和避险而做出情绪化反应

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股市下跌

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油价上涨

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第三个阶段是在最后关头

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川普会突然宣布双方已经谈妥

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推迟行动成为市场的利好

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第四阶段是第三阶段后立即出现的

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因为市场发现没有毁灭性的风险

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市场情绪转为乐观

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资金回流风险资产

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股价大涨

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T口交易是在市场恐慌的时候买入抄底

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等待川普taco第三阶段的到来

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也就是最后十点之前必有反转

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根据今天川普的帖子

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美伊谈判协议即将签署

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这是一个重大利好

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因为一旦霍尔木兹海峡正常化

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油价大概率是要大跌的

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有一家邮轮公司叫FRONTLINE的老总表示

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如果美伊达成协议

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通过霍尔木兹海峡的流量将会迅速增加

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因为海湾国家迫切希望增加石油出口

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油价这么好

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能出口

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赶紧要出口

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邮轮已经整装待发

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只等霍尔木兹海峡重新开放

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可以想见的是协议如果真的签署

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原油运出来后

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能源供给缺口将会迅速补上

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油价也就见顶了

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布伦特原油跌破90截图

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在89.9亿美元一桶上方

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多次冲击110以上

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无果形成所谓的多重顶图形

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如果未来两天油价确认破位

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并且在90以下上不来了

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那么空投随时有可能发动攻势

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形成一个多重顶的看空图形

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当消息面与技术面共振时

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油价出现中期大顶的话

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股市担心的通胀问题将会迎刃而解

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但是川普的帖子也不能全相信

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毕竟最近两个月

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川普已经有30多次表示

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结束战争的协议即将达成

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谁知道这次说的是不是真的

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我们分两个情形推测一下市场行情

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如果这次说的不是真的

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过几天旺斯去了巴基斯坦

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发现又被放鸽子

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协议没有签

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那么重新威胁继续轰炸taco的第一阶段

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重新开始

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市场估计不会怕这种周而复始的游戏啦

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如果这一次说的是真的

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伊朗果然来签协议了

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那市场的情绪将会转为乐观

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避险情绪消退

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股市有望结束调整

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重新迎来上涨

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中东是战是和

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其实与美股大多数上市公司不怎么直接相关

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核心问题还是通胀会不会缓解

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这关系到人们的消费能力

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上市公司的财务成本

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股票市场的资金面

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更多的则是投资者心态

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那么通胀会不会缓解呢

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摩根大通资产管理公司预计

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通胀虽然是高于美联储的目标

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但是5月数据很可能最后会成为

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本轮周期中的阶段性高点

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理由是汽油已经从5月高点下跌了9%

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而不是上涨

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油价上涨是本轮通胀回升的原因

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油价下跌也就有利于通胀放缓

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今天还公布了个PPPI

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PPPI是生产者价格指数

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属于三大通胀指数之一

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名义PPPI环比增长1.1%

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同比年化上涨了6.5%

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都超过预期

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通胀在中间商环节啊

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似乎压力很大

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但是扣掉食品和能源的核心PPI

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同比增长4.9%

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显著低于预期的5.4%

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能源价格显然是推动PPI大超预期的原因啦

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因战争而飙升的PPPI有可能成为

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过去下个月能源成本下降

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PPI也就不会这么高了

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昨天我说到沃时可能不会关心股市涨跌

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而会将政策目标集中在

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美联储的两大主要任务上

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也就是充分就业和物价稳定

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但是观众反对和质疑的很多

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认为美联储不可能不关注股市涨跌

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昨天节目的评论中点赞最多的一条这么说

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如果标普跌个50%

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老百姓养老金缩水了

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股市是涨是跌

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都是华尔街在那里讲故事

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只要美联储还在印钱

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股市就是要涨

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那这话确实没有什么问题

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逻辑上也基本成立

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标普指数如果跌50%

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一定是重大经济危机了

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宏观经济非常繁荣

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而标普跌50%的情况不太可能同时存在

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大盘崩了

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是对经济的反应

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这时必然伴随几件事是美联储不可能不关心的

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通胀飙升

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银行倒闭

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失业率大涨

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这些情况与大盘崩盘相伴

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股市大跌是投资者对经济前景悲观的反应

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纷纷卖出股票却无人接盘

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美联储一定要处理通胀和失业率问题

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也不可能让银行连环倒闭

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当美联储开始救援经济时

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股市会立即反应

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以至于我们总是觉得美联储是在救股市啊

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实际上这个是副产品

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包威尔可能会更加倾向于干预市场预期

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对股市下跌比较在意

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美联储和美国政府历史上面也曾经兴奋

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自由放任的市场经济主张

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让市场自发调节

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以至于1929年的经济危机

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拖成了长期大萧条

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当然现在不是这样了

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股市崩了

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消费者信息也会崩

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股市与宏观经济高度绑定

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我说的是沃时可能没有那么关心股市

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落实主张缩减资产负债表

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而不是为了救市扩表

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这个是他以前做的事了

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市场认为卧室是强硬的鹰派

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今年1月份川普提名卧时

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股市还大跌了一回

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最近股市下跌

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space x的IPO功不可没

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吸走了市场超过2500亿的资金

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锁定在托管账户里

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明天SPACEX上市交易

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那么750亿转入公司成为股东权益

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剩下的钱没有中签的

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是要退还

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也就是说

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可能会有200000000000IPO锁定的资金将获得释放

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这种超级IPO带来流动性的收紧和释放

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虽然对长期股市没有太大意义

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但对短期市场还是有点影响的

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钱锁死啊

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股市下跌

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钱回笼了

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股市可能就不跌了

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space x明天新股上市

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要庆祝马斯克生日

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新股上市并不是早上09:30开盘

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而是先集合竞价

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在十点到下午两点之间随机开盘

225
00:09:11,318 --> 00:09:14,450
嗨也就说几点开盘都不确定

226
00:09:14,450 --> 00:09:19,110
预测市场上对SPACEX最终的IPO收盘的市值

227
00:09:19,110 --> 00:09:20,929
做了各种概率的压注

228
00:09:20,929 --> 00:09:23,470
其中市值超过2万亿的概率

229
00:09:23,470 --> 00:09:25,399
被定价在70%

230
00:09:25,399 --> 00:09:29,299
而超过2.2万亿的概率就只有48%

231
00:09:29,299 --> 00:09:33,720
也就是说明天space x能上涨个15%的概率

232
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,659
有78%啊

233
00:09:35,659 --> 00:09:37,940
预测市场还是相当理智的

234
00:09:37,940 --> 00:09:41,750
不认为space x上市后会当天暴涨

235
00:09:41,750 --> 00:09:43,289
股市看似反弹

236
00:09:43,289 --> 00:09:44,639
希望回归

237
00:09:44,639 --> 00:09:46,980
但是未来39天

238
00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:49,480
股市的流动性和交易活跃性

239
00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:51,609
可能会受到世界杯的影响

240
00:09:51,609 --> 00:09:53,889
金融市场有一个说法说

241
00:09:53,889 --> 00:09:56,549
世界杯是金融市场的毒药

242
00:09:56,549 --> 00:09:58,269
今天世界杯开球

243
00:09:58,269 --> 00:10:01,690
7月19号决赛有104场的比赛

244
00:10:01,690 --> 00:10:05,519
全球将进入足球狂欢和讨论的周期

245
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:08,379
人们的关注度和时间是有限的

246
00:10:08,379 --> 00:10:10,220
在一个地方关心的多

247
00:10:10,220 --> 00:10:12,849
在另一个地方的关注就会少一些

248
00:10:12,849 --> 00:10:14,509
大家都去看球

249
00:10:14,509 --> 00:10:15,629
聊球时

250
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:17,908
盯盘和下单的人就变少了

251
00:10:17,908 --> 00:10:20,750
股市的交易量可能就会有所下降

252
00:10:20,750 --> 00:10:23,850
这种情况也发生在重大节假日

253
00:10:23,850 --> 00:10:26,250
比如基金经理忙着准备度假

254
00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:28,070
交易量就随之减少

255
00:10:28,070 --> 00:10:30,269
市场交易活跃度下降

256
00:10:30,269 --> 00:10:33,210
世界史上有多次世界杯的年份

257
00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:35,350
股市确实出现了下跌

258
00:10:35,350 --> 00:10:38,509
还发生了金融危机和债务危机

259
00:10:38,830 --> 00:10:42,730
虽然这些大型下跌和世界杯一点关系也没有

260
00:10:42,730 --> 00:10:45,700
但碰巧那一年就是世界杯的年份

261
00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:49,210
所以世界杯就成了金融市场的毒药啦

262
00:10:49,210 --> 00:10:51,110
这和什么5月卖出

263
00:10:51,110 --> 00:10:54,690
9月是全年最差的股市等说法类似啊

264
00:10:54,690 --> 00:10:56,529
全是碰巧撞上了

265
00:10:56,529 --> 00:10:58,859
就成了股市传说中的规律

266
00:10:58,859 --> 00:11:01,458
那这次世界杯正好在美国

267
00:11:01,458 --> 00:11:03,309
加拿大墨西哥举办

268
00:11:03,309 --> 00:11:04,610
接下来一个月

269
00:11:04,610 --> 00:11:08,990
估计每股投资者在股市投入的时间平均要减少

270
00:11:08,990 --> 00:11:09,750
交易量

271
00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:11,049
极有可能减少

272
00:11:11,049 --> 00:11:12,889
股市在交投活跃

273
00:11:12,889 --> 00:11:15,929
人山人海时容易走出行情

274
00:11:15,929 --> 00:11:17,669
如果人头减少

275
00:11:17,669 --> 00:11:20,359
股市可能以横盘震荡为主

276
00:11:20,359 --> 00:11:22,379
昨天甲骨文财报后

277
00:11:24,730 --> 00:11:26,110
财报不错

278
00:11:26,110 --> 00:11:29,230
就是资本支出计划高达950亿

279
00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:30,609
大超预期

280
00:11:30,609 --> 00:11:33,629
云服务商这两年都在扩大资本开支

281
00:11:33,629 --> 00:11:35,149
公布的数字越大

282
00:11:35,149 --> 00:11:36,799
市场越不买账

283
00:11:36,799 --> 00:11:40,940
需要的资金通过债权融资和股权融资来要融资

284
00:11:40,940 --> 00:11:41,759
400亿

285
00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:46,029
公司明确了今年剩余时间不会再发行新的债券

286
00:11:46,029 --> 00:11:49,070
下一轮债券融资要到2027年了

287
00:11:49,070 --> 00:11:50,250
如此一来

288
00:11:50,250 --> 00:11:53,690
股权融资200亿可能会在今年发生

289
00:11:53,690 --> 00:11:56,029
公股融资是股票的利空

290
00:11:56,029 --> 00:11:57,970
因为股数变多了

291
00:11:57,970 --> 00:11:59,950
一股的股权比例下降

292
00:11:59,950 --> 00:12:01,720
股价可能会下跌

293
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,159
目前股价看起来筑底反弹

294
00:12:04,159 --> 00:12:06,850
但不太清楚是否会持续反弹

295
00:12:06,850 --> 00:12:09,590
微软在头肩底突破之后

296
00:12:09,590 --> 00:12:11,850
连续九天小阴线

297
00:12:11,850 --> 00:12:14,089
诶练成了九阴真经

298
00:12:14,089 --> 00:12:16,408
这真是令人匪夷所思

299
00:12:16,408 --> 00:12:18,208
明星股的底部

300
00:12:18,208 --> 00:12:22,340
尤其是头肩底是成功概率很高的一个图形

301
00:12:22,340 --> 00:12:23,700
而现在看来

302
00:12:23,700 --> 00:12:25,960
微软的头肩底是失败了

303
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,960
因为它不但跌破了头肩底的颈线

304
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,990
也跌出了短线新低

305
00:12:30,990 --> 00:12:34,429
只是还没有跌破年内新低355而已

306
00:12:34,429 --> 00:12:36,289
底部得而复失

307
00:12:36,289 --> 00:12:39,299
说明在更远的将来才会创新高

308
00:12:39,299 --> 00:12:40,340
但我觉得

309
00:12:40,340 --> 00:12:44,059
360应该就是生死存亡的关键支撑位了

310
00:12:44,059 --> 00:12:45,870
应该底部不远

311
00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:48,590
短线九条阴线太多了

312
00:12:48,590 --> 00:12:50,539
很快就会出一个阳线的

313
00:12:50,539 --> 00:12:53,600
今天SNDK再创历史新高

314
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,578
大涨14.5%

315
00:12:55,578 --> 00:12:57,158
强势牛股创新高

316
00:12:57,158 --> 00:12:58,678
意味着趋势不变

317
00:12:58,678 --> 00:13:01,039
接下来还将继续上涨

318
00:13:01,039 --> 00:13:05,379
游资ETF是DRAM全部持仓是存储

319
00:13:05,379 --> 00:13:09,129
主要是三星海力士镁光等啊

320
00:13:09,129 --> 00:13:11,828
可以当做是一篮子存储谷来买

321
00:13:11,828 --> 00:13:13,288
今天特斯拉反弹

322
00:13:13,288 --> 00:13:16,168
我的公开账户总算回到了20万以上

323
00:13:16,168 --> 00:13:18,720
截图净值是20.3万

324
00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,000
有观众说

325
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:24,559
博主最大的错误就是压住特斯拉的权重过大嗯

326
00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,120
特斯拉不是长期稳定上涨的股票

327
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:28,860
它会忽高忽低

328
00:13:28,860 --> 00:13:30,259
波动非常大

329
00:13:30,259 --> 00:13:33,159
但最终年化收益率又不高

330
00:13:33,159 --> 00:13:36,659
我在上一波上涨波段没有及时获利跑掉

331
00:13:36,659 --> 00:13:39,639
最近不高不低的加仓吧

332
00:13:39,639 --> 00:13:40,559
太贵了

333
00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:43,870
减仓吧又好像没有达到足够的高度

334
00:13:43,870 --> 00:13:45,570
下次冲历史高点时

335
00:13:45,570 --> 00:13:48,019
我应该会卖出一点好

336
00:13:48,019 --> 00:13:49,539
今天的节目就分享到这里

337
00:13:49,539 --> 00:13:50,480
感谢大家收看

338
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:51,639
我们下期节目再见

339
00:13:51,639 --> 00:13:52,340
拜拜

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