BV1hKf4BgEMY · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:02,520 你好 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:04,019 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:04,019 --> 00:00:06,139 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:06,139 --> 00:00:07,719 这是突破的第六节课 5 00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:10,558 这节课我们来讲失败的突破 6 00:00:11,470 --> 00:00:15,689 本节课对于失败一词的定义可能有些难理解 7 00:00:15,689 --> 00:00:20,894 以及后续会是趋势的恢复还是趋势的反转 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,640 突破可以是一根趋势K线 9 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,239 可以是2~3个趋势K线 10 00:00:30,239 --> 00:00:31,640 也可以是连续十个趋势K线 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,469 但一根趋势K线就足够被称为突破了 12 00:00:35,170 --> 00:00:37,628 这个突破持续了三根K线 13 00:00:37,628 --> 00:00:38,948 连续三根阳线 14 00:00:38,948 --> 00:00:41,649 然后空投尝试制造失败的突破柱 15 00:00:41,649 --> 00:00:43,268 回调是尝试反转 16 00:00:43,268 --> 00:00:46,628 尝试让突破失败阴线收在最低 17 00:00:47,109 --> 00:00:49,170 空投试图结束这个突破 18 00:00:49,170 --> 00:00:51,869 他们希望市场反转下跌 19 00:00:56,399 --> 00:01:00,579 如果这个失败的突破未能阻止趋势 20 00:01:00,579 --> 00:01:03,600 那么趋势就会恢复向上 21 00:01:05,759 --> 00:01:06,478 比如像这样 22 00:01:06,478 --> 00:01:08,078 多头突破空头尝试让他失败 23 00:01:08,078 --> 00:01:09,338 让他失败的尝试失败了 24 00:01:09,338 --> 00:01:10,319 注有一点拗口 25 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:11,478 可以理解为负负得正 26 00:01:11,478 --> 00:01:13,510 失败的失败就是成功 27 00:01:13,510 --> 00:01:15,969 空头尝试让多头突破失败 28 00:01:15,969 --> 00:01:17,609 但他变成了一个牛骑 29 00:01:17,609 --> 00:01:20,030 然后上涨趋势恢复了 30 00:01:26,439 --> 00:01:31,200 这里有另一个多头突破连续两根阳线 31 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,079 所以它是突破连续的阳线 32 00:01:34,079 --> 00:01:37,418 也就意味着突破越来越大 33 00:01:37,618 --> 00:01:40,718 从一根K线发展到了两根K线 34 00:01:40,718 --> 00:01:42,959 接下来是一根阴线 35 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:47,319 空投试图让多头突破失败并反转下跌 36 00:01:51,519 --> 00:01:54,319 这里失败的多头突破 37 00:01:54,319 --> 00:01:56,459 多头突破正在失败 38 00:01:56,459 --> 00:01:58,930 趋势反转下跌 39 00:01:59,250 --> 00:02:02,950 刚才这里空投尝试让突破失败 40 00:02:02,950 --> 00:02:05,909 但是后续趋势恢复上涨 41 00:02:05,909 --> 00:02:08,969 这里空投再次尝试让突破失败 42 00:02:08,969 --> 00:02:11,189 趋势反转向下 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,620 下降通道牛 44 00:02:14,620 --> 00:02:18,539 其大约是左边上涨趋势的50%回调 45 00:02:18,539 --> 00:02:21,930 然后多头突破这根阳线是突破 46 00:02:21,930 --> 00:02:24,969 然后突破又延续了五根K线 47 00:02:24,969 --> 00:02:28,090 你可以说这段上涨是由六根阳线组成的 48 00:02:28,090 --> 00:02:29,550 多头突破 49 00:02:29,710 --> 00:02:32,310 然后在这里左边是上涨趋势 50 00:02:32,310 --> 00:02:34,389 价格跌破了这个牛旗的底部 51 00:02:34,389 --> 00:02:36,789 也跌破了上涨通道线 52 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,039 空投突破 53 00:02:38,039 --> 00:02:39,240 连续四根阴线 54 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,699 尽管没有体积特别大的阴线 55 00:02:41,699 --> 00:02:42,879 这根还不错 56 00:02:42,879 --> 00:02:43,960 连续两根阴线 57 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:45,789 然后一个小十字星 58 00:02:45,789 --> 00:02:49,030 这个突破不是特别的强 59 00:02:54,580 --> 00:02:55,539 之前说过 60 00:02:55,539 --> 00:02:57,780 每个趋势K线都是一次突破 61 00:02:57,780 --> 00:03:01,219 每个带有显著影线的K线都是一次失败的突破 62 00:03:01,219 --> 00:03:03,500 任何K线图上的任何一根K线 63 00:03:03,500 --> 00:03:05,550 要么是一次突破 64 00:03:05,710 --> 00:03:07,650 要么是失败的突破及反转 65 00:03:07,650 --> 00:03:10,349 要么是突破之后的回调及其行 66 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,060 多头突破空头试图反转 67 00:03:17,060 --> 00:03:18,979 他们的反转失败了 68 00:03:18,979 --> 00:03:20,699 变成了一个牛企 69 00:03:20,699 --> 00:03:23,699 然后趋势恢复上涨 70 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,199 交易者会压住突破 71 00:03:30,199 --> 00:03:30,819 足够强 72 00:03:30,819 --> 00:03:31,840 背景足够好 73 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,960 上涨趋势中的50%回调小双底 74 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:41,150 这根K线的低点和这根阴线的低点 75 00:03:41,150 --> 00:03:44,229 所以多头会在价格突破这个小双底的时候买入 76 00:03:44,229 --> 00:03:45,939 做多景线是这根阳线的高点 77 00:03:45,939 --> 00:03:47,699 所以他们会在它的上方买入 78 00:03:47,699 --> 00:03:49,840 和在那个阴线上方买入的价格相同 79 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,780 无论他们选择哪根K线作为信号 80 00:03:51,780 --> 00:03:54,479 K他们都会挂突破买单做多 81 00:03:54,479 --> 00:03:56,699 也许他们会在那个阳线的收盘买入 82 00:03:56,699 --> 00:03:59,750 或者他们会在那个阳线高点上方一个tick买入 83 00:03:59,750 --> 00:04:01,349 无论哪种情况 84 00:04:01,349 --> 00:04:03,810 他们都将这次回调视为牛起 85 00:04:03,810 --> 00:04:07,469 并且他们在它反转上涨时买入 86 00:04:07,710 --> 00:04:10,550 压住上涨趋势会恢复 87 00:04:14,539 --> 00:04:18,040 空头突破多头尝试让他失败 88 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,209 多头希望制造一个失败的空头突破 89 00:04:22,209 --> 00:04:24,970 大约是这个上涨波段的50% 90 00:04:24,970 --> 00:04:27,829 回调可能是突破这些高点之后的回撤 91 00:04:27,829 --> 00:04:30,470 前期的这个高点被突破了 92 00:04:30,470 --> 00:04:32,449 现在价格正在回测突破点 93 00:04:32,449 --> 00:04:36,910 多头希望这个空头突破会失败并反转上涨 94 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:43,668 空投则希望相反的情况 95 00:04:43,668 --> 00:04:45,709 他们希望空投突破会成功 96 00:04:45,709 --> 00:04:47,829 并且去到下方的mm目标位 97 00:04:47,829 --> 00:04:49,468 或者至少跌幅足够大 98 00:04:49,468 --> 00:04:51,749 让他们可以赚到钱 99 00:04:52,228 --> 00:04:54,048 多头试图反转向上 100 00:04:54,048 --> 00:04:56,428 多头试图让空投突破失败 101 00:04:56,428 --> 00:04:58,928 而空投压住突破将会成功 102 00:04:58,928 --> 00:05:03,088 他们会在前一根K线的低点下方挂突破买单 103 00:05:03,399 --> 00:05:05,319 他们的订单会在这里触发成交 104 00:05:05,319 --> 00:05:06,420 后续的跌幅足够大 105 00:05:06,420 --> 00:05:09,560 至少可以让他们赚到一笔包头皮的利润 106 00:05:12,899 --> 00:05:14,800 每个趋势K线都是一次突破 107 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,350 任何一系列的趋势K线都是一次突破 108 00:05:17,350 --> 00:05:19,810 突破可以是单独一根K线 109 00:05:19,810 --> 00:05:22,550 也可以是一系列的K线 110 00:05:22,910 --> 00:05:25,350 这里有连续两根的非常大的阴线 111 00:05:25,350 --> 00:05:28,250 你可以说突破从这根小阴线就开始了 112 00:05:28,250 --> 00:05:31,189 但我认为真正的突破从这里才开始 113 00:05:31,189 --> 00:05:33,829 我会把它看作是由两根K线组成的空头突破 114 00:05:33,829 --> 00:05:36,009 但它也是一个五根K线的下降微通道 115 00:05:36,009 --> 00:05:38,589 连续跌了五根K线没有反弹 116 00:05:38,850 --> 00:05:41,410 这是一个非常强势的空投突破 117 00:05:41,410 --> 00:05:43,329 多头正在放弃 118 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:45,839 多头正在卖出他们的多头仓位 119 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:50,220 而空头正在卖出做空强势的空头突破 120 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:51,839 有一些被套牢的多头 121 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,019 他们还没有卖出他们的多头仓位 122 00:05:54,019 --> 00:05:55,639 他们希望有一些反弹 123 00:05:55,639 --> 00:05:57,870 这样他们可以少亏一些离场 124 00:05:57,870 --> 00:06:00,550 同时也有一些空头出于某种原因 125 00:06:00,550 --> 00:06:02,170 没有来得及入场做空 126 00:06:02,170 --> 00:06:04,170 他们被困在了这笔交易外面 127 00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:06,269 他们也在等待反弹 128 00:06:06,709 --> 00:06:09,629 这样他们就可以逢高卖出做空 129 00:06:13,339 --> 00:06:14,980 多头尝试反转 130 00:06:14,980 --> 00:06:16,060 空头突破 131 00:06:16,060 --> 00:06:18,550 多头尝试让他失败 132 00:06:18,550 --> 00:06:21,029 但是看多头的反转尝试 133 00:06:21,029 --> 00:06:22,470 K线体积都很小 134 00:06:22,470 --> 00:06:24,668 反而有很长的引线 135 00:06:24,829 --> 00:06:26,928 看不到连续的大阳线 136 00:06:26,928 --> 00:06:29,149 尽管这里有连续两根阳线 137 00:06:29,149 --> 00:06:32,588 但是和左边的大阴线无法相提并论 138 00:06:32,949 --> 00:06:35,129 所以这很可能只是小反转 139 00:06:35,129 --> 00:06:38,329 也就是说他要么是震荡区间中的一段上涨 140 00:06:38,329 --> 00:06:40,139 要么是一个雄起 141 00:06:40,139 --> 00:06:41,379 无论哪种情况 142 00:06:41,379 --> 00:06:44,019 你都可以预期至少会有一个小的第二段下跌 143 00:06:44,019 --> 00:06:45,220 下降趋势恢复 144 00:06:45,220 --> 00:06:45,939 大幅下跌 145 00:06:45,939 --> 00:06:48,819 不仅仅是震荡区间中的一次下跌 146 00:06:49,339 --> 00:06:51,879 所以这变成了下降趋势中的一个雄奇 147 00:06:51,879 --> 00:06:54,899 而不是震荡区间中的一个多头波段 148 00:07:01,459 --> 00:07:03,699 引起反弹的主要原因是空头止盈 149 00:07:03,699 --> 00:07:06,449 因为空投需要降低他们利润回撤的风险 150 00:07:06,449 --> 00:07:07,750 如果他们做空了 151 00:07:07,750 --> 00:07:08,509 他们的止损 152 00:07:08,509 --> 00:07:09,550 现在离得很远 153 00:07:09,550 --> 00:07:11,889 减少利润回撤的风险的最好方法 154 00:07:11,889 --> 00:07:13,930 就是减少仓位规模 155 00:07:13,930 --> 00:07:16,509 所以一些空头买回部分仓位 156 00:07:16,509 --> 00:07:18,850 只赢一部分 157 00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:24,300 每当我看到突破 158 00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:25,939 比如这里的多头突破 159 00:07:25,939 --> 00:07:27,319 然后我看到反转 160 00:07:27,319 --> 00:07:29,788 也就是让突破失败的尝试 161 00:07:29,788 --> 00:07:34,500 我总是比较突破和反转的强度啊 162 00:07:35,259 --> 00:07:37,259 在这里我们看不到太多的信息 163 00:07:37,259 --> 00:07:40,019 所以也许我们需要看一些额外的K线 164 00:07:41,139 --> 00:07:42,560 向上突破很弱 165 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,439 向下突破也很弱 166 00:07:44,439 --> 00:07:47,180 大阴线后面的跟随是十字星 167 00:07:47,180 --> 00:07:49,620 并且还没有创新低 168 00:07:54,079 --> 00:07:55,100 多头突破 169 00:07:55,100 --> 00:07:58,209 但没有连续的大阳线收在最高 170 00:07:58,370 --> 00:07:59,569 空头突破 171 00:07:59,569 --> 00:08:02,310 但没有连续的大阴线收在最低 172 00:08:02,310 --> 00:08:04,250 跟随很差 173 00:08:04,449 --> 00:08:05,430 多头突破 174 00:08:05,430 --> 00:08:07,990 但是看他后面的跟随空投突破 175 00:08:07,990 --> 00:08:12,180 但是看他后面的跟随有很多重叠 176 00:08:12,180 --> 00:08:15,100 而且缺口很快就被填补了 177 00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:17,620 这个收盘价到那个高点之间的缺口 178 00:08:17,620 --> 00:08:19,060 多头试图制造缺口 179 00:08:19,060 --> 00:08:21,740 但无法在那根K线上方收盘 180 00:08:25,100 --> 00:08:27,519 每当行情像这样不明确时 181 00:08:27,519 --> 00:08:29,759 多头突破可能是反转 182 00:08:29,759 --> 00:08:31,120 也可能是牛骑 183 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,019 行情不明确 184 00:08:33,019 --> 00:08:34,919 通常这意味着横盘 185 00:08:34,919 --> 00:08:36,659 最好耐心等待 186 00:08:36,659 --> 00:08:38,259 等待更多的K线 187 00:08:38,259 --> 00:08:40,299 等待更多的信息 188 00:08:40,879 --> 00:08:42,500 这里多头突破 189 00:08:42,500 --> 00:08:44,279 空头突破 190 00:08:44,450 --> 00:08:45,870 大涨大跌 191 00:08:45,870 --> 00:08:49,269 迷你版的大涨大跌制造了困惑 192 00:08:49,269 --> 00:08:52,950 所以横盘这样的背景不利于交易 193 00:08:52,950 --> 00:08:54,610 区间太窄了 194 00:08:54,610 --> 00:08:58,450 就算用现价单包头皮都很难赚到钱 195 00:08:58,450 --> 00:09:01,669 没有显著的买压或卖压 196 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:03,620 阳线和阴线交替 197 00:09:03,620 --> 00:09:04,679 影线很长 198 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:05,940 实体部分很小 199 00:09:05,940 --> 00:09:07,240 很多小的十字星 200 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,919 一个非常窄的震荡区间 201 00:09:10,129 --> 00:09:12,049 最好不要交易 202 00:09:12,809 --> 00:09:14,929 这里有哪一方明显具有优势吗 203 00:09:14,929 --> 00:09:16,470 多头显然更强势吗 204 00:09:16,470 --> 00:09:18,129 高点还没有抬高呢 205 00:09:18,129 --> 00:09:20,389 空投显然更强势吗 206 00:09:20,389 --> 00:09:21,210 也没有 207 00:09:21,210 --> 00:09:23,110 如果某一方显然更强势 208 00:09:23,110 --> 00:09:25,049 那么他们获胜的概率就更高 209 00:09:25,049 --> 00:09:27,909 更有可能顺着那个方向突破 210 00:09:29,500 --> 00:09:30,379 到了这里 211 00:09:30,379 --> 00:09:32,059 行情仍然不够明确吗 212 00:09:32,059 --> 00:09:34,779 还是说某一方显然更强势 213 00:09:35,048 --> 00:09:37,568 空投制造了一个收在最低的阴线 214 00:09:37,568 --> 00:09:38,828 体积很大的阴线 215 00:09:38,828 --> 00:09:40,129 它的收盘价跌破了过去 216 00:09:40,129 --> 00:09:42,120 20~30根K线的低点 217 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:43,940 空投显然更强 218 00:09:43,940 --> 00:09:45,659 大概率还会再下跌 219 00:09:45,659 --> 00:09:47,320 至少一点 220 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:51,860 连续三根阴线 221 00:09:51,860 --> 00:09:53,379 其中它的体积非常大 222 00:09:53,379 --> 00:09:56,559 收盘价远低于所有前期的K线 223 00:09:56,799 --> 00:09:59,860 至少60%的概率会向下 224 00:09:59,860 --> 00:10:01,960 达到某个mm目标位 225 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,539 价格会继续下跌 226 00:10:04,539 --> 00:10:06,980 这就是为什么这根K线看起来是这样的 227 00:10:06,980 --> 00:10:07,980 在它形成的过程中 228 00:10:07,980 --> 00:10:11,039 每个人都看到了它正在变成一根大阴线 229 00:10:11,039 --> 00:10:14,799 于是交易者市价卖出压住它会迅速下跌 230 00:10:14,799 --> 00:10:16,460 有可能会反弹 231 00:10:16,460 --> 00:10:18,620 但更有可能会直线下跌 232 00:10:18,620 --> 00:10:21,100 所以很多交易者愿意立即卖出 233 00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:23,240 以防没有反弹 234 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,759 背景有利于突破 235 00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:33,240 突破成功了 236 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,419 窄震荡区间是突破模式 237 00:10:35,419 --> 00:10:38,039 总会向某一边突破 238 00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:41,370 然后出现了这根超大的阴线 239 00:10:41,370 --> 00:10:46,639 它的收盘价远低于前期30根K线的低点 240 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:49,839 继续下跌的概率非常大 241 00:10:50,278 --> 00:10:52,719 空投显然更加强势 242 00:10:58,539 --> 00:10:59,480 空投突破 243 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:00,799 看看他的跟随怎么样 244 00:11:00,799 --> 00:11:04,139 非常好的跟随大阴线收在最低 245 00:11:04,139 --> 00:11:07,159 增加了继续下跌的概率 246 00:11:07,769 --> 00:11:09,708 现在有连续四根阴线 247 00:11:09,708 --> 00:11:11,649 全部都收在几乎最低点 248 00:11:11,649 --> 00:11:15,549 第一次反弹大概率会有很多人逢高卖出 249 00:11:15,549 --> 00:11:17,730 然后至少还会有一段下跌 250 00:11:17,730 --> 00:11:19,460 多头希望有反弹 251 00:11:19,460 --> 00:11:21,279 让他们少亏一点离场 252 00:11:21,279 --> 00:11:22,899 空投也希望有反弹 253 00:11:22,899 --> 00:11:26,019 这样他们就可以逢高卖出做空 254 00:11:26,750 --> 00:11:29,590 像这样的强势突破 255 00:11:29,710 --> 00:11:31,889 很可能会去到向下的MM目标位 256 00:11:31,889 --> 00:11:33,750 从突破的第一根K线的开盘价 257 00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:36,500 到最后一根K线的收盘价往下翻一倍 258 00:11:36,500 --> 00:11:37,960 突破可能还会继续 259 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:38,960 但就目前而言 260 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,580 这是突破的最后一根K线 261 00:11:43,639 --> 00:11:46,580 可以看到价格下跌到了mm目标位 262 00:11:46,580 --> 00:11:50,839 从这根K线的开盘到那根K线的收盘 263 00:11:50,839 --> 00:11:52,219 往下翻一倍 264 00:11:52,219 --> 00:11:55,239 又是窄震荡区间非常大的 265 00:11:55,239 --> 00:11:57,889 空头突破有明显的下影线 266 00:11:57,889 --> 00:12:00,509 但是收盘远低于前一根K线的低点 267 00:12:00,509 --> 00:12:04,149 也远低于过去时至20根K线的低点 268 00:12:13,299 --> 00:12:15,159 交易者需要看到跟随 269 00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:16,360 如果没有跟随 270 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:17,539 这可能是一个陷阱 271 00:12:17,539 --> 00:12:19,980 可能会立即反转向上 272 00:12:23,399 --> 00:12:26,519 大的空头突破需要跟随空投 273 00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:28,720 希望下一根K线就得到阴线跟随 274 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,129 但有时他不会再下一根K线到来 275 00:12:31,129 --> 00:12:32,850 有时会反弹几根K线 276 00:12:32,850 --> 00:12:33,649 五根K线 277 00:12:33,649 --> 00:12:35,490 十根K线形成一个雄奇 278 00:12:35,490 --> 00:12:37,570 然后在第二段下跌 279 00:12:38,759 --> 00:12:41,778 如果跟随的抛售没有很快到来 280 00:12:41,778 --> 00:12:45,198 市场就可能反转向上 281 00:12:46,659 --> 00:12:50,740 如果横盘十根20根K线 282 00:12:51,980 --> 00:12:54,620 空投得到第二段下跌的概率会下降 283 00:12:54,620 --> 00:12:56,879 如果震荡持续超过20根K线 284 00:12:56,879 --> 00:12:59,659 第二段下跌的概率和反转向上的概率 285 00:12:59,659 --> 00:13:01,240 变得大约相同 286 00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:03,639 市场变得中性 287 00:13:03,639 --> 00:13:05,100 也许在十根K线之后 288 00:13:05,100 --> 00:13:06,960 也许在20根K线之后 289 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,019 在某一时刻 290 00:13:08,019 --> 00:13:10,039 它会再次变得中性 291 00:13:10,889 --> 00:13:13,409 看后续很大的阴险 292 00:13:13,409 --> 00:13:14,610 但看看接下来是什么 293 00:13:14,610 --> 00:13:16,370 如果大的背景是一个震荡区间 294 00:13:16,370 --> 00:13:18,649 日或一个宽下降通道 295 00:13:18,850 --> 00:13:20,230 交易者会说啊 296 00:13:20,230 --> 00:13:21,639 这是第二段陷阱 297 00:13:21,639 --> 00:13:24,679 我要在这个大阳线的高点上方买入压住 298 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,059 这是一个空头陷阱 299 00:13:26,059 --> 00:13:28,799 把低位追空的空头套牢 300 00:13:29,139 --> 00:13:31,500 此时市场大跌大涨 301 00:13:31,500 --> 00:13:34,129 给交易者造成了很大的困惑 302 00:13:34,129 --> 00:13:36,649 你必须假设市场会横盘震荡 303 00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:38,169 然后进入突破模式 304 00:13:38,169 --> 00:13:40,809 此时空头突破完全被逆转了 305 00:13:40,809 --> 00:13:42,339 市场开始横盘 306 00:13:42,339 --> 00:13:44,818 所以即使只有大约十根K线 307 00:13:44,818 --> 00:13:47,359 我认为市场是完全中性的 308 00:13:47,359 --> 00:13:50,179 接下来50%的概率会上涨 309 00:13:50,179 --> 00:13:52,820 50%的概率会下跌 310 00:13:56,139 --> 00:13:57,759 空投放弃了 311 00:13:57,759 --> 00:13:59,500 这是一个失败的空头突破 312 00:13:59,500 --> 00:14:00,259 对我来说 313 00:14:00,259 --> 00:14:03,039 这个阳线意味着这是一个失败的空头突破 314 00:14:03,039 --> 00:14:06,529 这根K线突破那根K线确认了突破失败 315 00:14:06,529 --> 00:14:09,429 失败的空头突破并不意味着上涨趋势 316 00:14:09,429 --> 00:14:12,269 这只是意味着下降趋势已经结束 317 00:14:12,269 --> 00:14:14,769 现在市场是中性的 318 00:14:15,730 --> 00:14:16,950 在这个案例中 319 00:14:16,950 --> 00:14:19,269 他确实导致了反转 320 00:14:19,389 --> 00:14:21,009 空头突破非常强势 321 00:14:21,009 --> 00:14:22,850 多头突破同样强势 322 00:14:22,850 --> 00:14:24,450 市场是中性的 323 00:14:24,450 --> 00:14:26,029 市场进入收敛三角形 324 00:14:26,029 --> 00:14:27,990 然后多头向上突破 325 00:14:28,549 --> 00:14:31,549 可能是上涨趋势的开始 326 00:14:33,919 --> 00:14:36,259 这里有一个非常强势的下降趋势 327 00:14:36,259 --> 00:14:37,740 持续了大约20根K线 328 00:14:37,740 --> 00:14:39,480 非常窄的通道 329 00:14:39,639 --> 00:14:41,519 多头向上突破了趋势线 330 00:14:41,519 --> 00:14:44,500 通常当非常窄的下降通道第一次被突破 331 00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:47,519 第一次反转向上大概率是小反转 332 00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:50,379 市场可能反弹5~10根K线 333 00:14:50,379 --> 00:14:52,159 然后下降趋势恢复 334 00:14:52,159 --> 00:14:55,000 如果多头在那个时候可以第二次反转 335 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,840 向上形成某种类型的双底 336 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,980 低点抬高的双底或者低点降低的双底 337 00:15:00,980 --> 00:15:03,250 才有机会制造大反转 338 00:15:03,250 --> 00:15:07,210 但这个时候这个突破大概率只是小反转 339 00:15:07,210 --> 00:15:10,500 第一次突破这个下降窄通道 340 00:15:10,659 --> 00:15:12,980 尤其这个下降窄通道已经持续了很多 341 00:15:12,980 --> 00:15:14,980 K线是小反转 342 00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:18,139 这里多头有一个小双底 343 00:15:18,139 --> 00:15:20,820 他们希望这是一根K线组成的末端骑行 344 00:15:20,820 --> 00:15:22,399 并且他们有一个大阳线 345 00:15:22,399 --> 00:15:23,200 收在最高 346 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,419 高于过去六根K线的高点 347 00:15:26,279 --> 00:15:28,379 这些对于多头来说都是好的 348 00:15:28,379 --> 00:15:30,460 但大概率仍然只是小反转 349 00:15:30,460 --> 00:15:33,559 小反转意味着第一次反转上涨不会走的很远 350 00:15:33,559 --> 00:15:34,870 那么会发生什么呢 351 00:15:34,870 --> 00:15:38,870 空头会看着这根大阳线说 352 00:15:39,460 --> 00:15:41,059 哼强势的大阳线 353 00:15:41,059 --> 00:15:42,899 但他很可能只是一个小反转 354 00:15:42,899 --> 00:15:46,109 最多涨到M20附近就会遇到阻力 355 00:15:46,308 --> 00:15:48,668 我要在那个阳线的收盘卖出 356 00:15:48,668 --> 00:15:51,908 做空压住他是一个失败的多头突破 357 00:15:51,908 --> 00:15:54,749 这么做是符合逻辑的 358 00:15:59,779 --> 00:16:03,120 因为它更有可能是一个小反转或震荡区间 359 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,080 或熊奇 360 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,779 而不是上涨趋势的开始 361 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,840 在M20附近的大阳线收盘卖出 362 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,580 做空并没有太多风险 363 00:16:13,580 --> 00:16:17,080 因为多头的反转尝试大概率会失败 364 00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:20,559 一些交易者会说 365 00:16:20,559 --> 00:16:22,279 我不想对抗大阳线 366 00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:25,899 但是多头突破之后跟随是一个收在最低的阴线 367 00:16:25,899 --> 00:16:27,960 我要在阴线的低点下方卖出 368 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:28,740 做空 369 00:16:28,740 --> 00:16:29,740 压住多头 370 00:16:29,740 --> 00:16:30,840 突破正在失败 371 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,259 这可能是两根K线组成的雄起 372 00:16:33,259 --> 00:16:35,659 下降趋势可能会恢复 373 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,240 在这里价格再次尝试反转向上 374 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:42,860 这是第二次反转向上 375 00:16:42,860 --> 00:16:44,320 所以这是一个双底 376 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,440 尽管这个低点远低于那个低点 377 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,179 但它仍然是一种双底 378 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,820 并且可能是一个大反转 379 00:16:50,820 --> 00:16:52,000 之前说过 380 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,279 第一次突破窄通道只是小反转 381 00:16:57,129 --> 00:17:01,609 如果在趋势恢复下跌之后再次尝试反转 382 00:17:01,609 --> 00:17:06,184 那就有可能是大反转导致趋势的改变 383 00:17:07,619 --> 00:17:09,700 本来趋势是下跌的 384 00:17:09,700 --> 00:17:13,859 现在多头有机会把它扭转为上涨 385 00:17:14,569 --> 00:17:16,509 这里有连续四根阳线 386 00:17:16,509 --> 00:17:18,690 并且其中两个体积非常大 387 00:17:18,690 --> 00:17:21,109 收盘在几乎最高点 388 00:17:21,109 --> 00:17:23,869 实际上这个也在高点附近收盘 389 00:17:23,869 --> 00:17:26,009 这是一个足够强势的反转 390 00:17:26,009 --> 00:17:27,509 至少还会再上涨一些 391 00:17:27,509 --> 00:17:30,500 比如向上达到mm目标位 392 00:17:30,779 --> 00:17:32,819 此外背景足够好 393 00:17:32,819 --> 00:17:36,888 窄下降通道被突破后形成双底的结构 394 00:17:37,048 --> 00:17:40,489 这可能是一个低点降低的大反转 395 00:17:40,489 --> 00:17:43,380 导致趋势发生变化 396 00:17:43,539 --> 00:17:44,839 下降趋势被逆转 397 00:17:44,839 --> 00:17:47,420 也许是上涨趋势的开始 398 00:17:50,259 --> 00:17:52,099 此时高点还没有抬高 399 00:17:52,099 --> 00:17:56,339 所以市场可能仍然处在一个宽下降通道中 400 00:17:57,250 --> 00:17:59,789 但这是一个相当强势的反转 401 00:17:59,789 --> 00:18:03,009 而且时间上离之前的这次突破很近 402 00:18:03,009 --> 00:18:06,224 这增加了价格会继续上涨的概率 403 00:18:12,579 --> 00:18:15,700 但是整体的下降通道仍然比较窄 404 00:18:15,700 --> 00:18:17,980 没有太多上涨的阳线 405 00:18:17,980 --> 00:18:21,150 可能仍然只是一次小反转 406 00:18:21,309 --> 00:18:22,650 他确实反转了 407 00:18:22,650 --> 00:18:26,039 你觉得他是大反转还是小反转 408 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,259 涨幅足够交易者做一个波段交易 409 00:18:29,259 --> 00:18:31,079 我会说它为一个大反转 410 00:18:31,079 --> 00:18:34,460 但不足以超过下降趋势的起跌点 411 00:18:34,460 --> 00:18:38,619 最终得到的是一个震荡区间 412 00:18:39,609 --> 00:18:41,869 在看到大幅的上涨之后 413 00:18:41,869 --> 00:18:46,769 交易者会把下一次反转的尝试看作大反转 414 00:18:47,099 --> 00:18:49,660 这个是低点抬高的大反转 415 00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:52,869 左边连续五根阴线可能无法直接反转 416 00:18:52,869 --> 00:18:54,630 可能更像是大涨大跌 417 00:18:54,630 --> 00:18:55,769 造成很大的困惑 418 00:18:55,769 --> 00:18:56,730 然后横盘震荡 419 00:18:56,730 --> 00:18:58,759 然而这里有一个双底 420 00:18:58,759 --> 00:19:01,000 低点略微降低的双底 421 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,440 这里又有一个小双底的结构 422 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,720 它有更大的概率会成为低点抬高的大反转 423 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,819 这节课我们讲了失败的突破 424 00:19:14,819 --> 00:19:16,539 以及他们如何成为骑行 425 00:19:16,539 --> 00:19:18,539 然后趋势恢复 426 00:19:18,779 --> 00:19:22,779 或者他们可以导致趋势被反转 427 00:19:26,460 --> 00:19:27,799 我是二布鲁克斯 428 00:19:27,799 --> 00:19:31,740 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程突破的第六节课 429 00:19:31,740 --> 00:19:33,740 到这里就讲完了
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