全球配置防范风险

1
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最近很多兄弟情绪很悲观啊

2
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问我强哥怎么办

3
00:00:03,620 --> 00:00:05,139
然后还有救吗

4
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这个去年赚钱的人呢

5
00:00:07,019 --> 00:00:08,419
今年差不多都亏光了

6
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嘿嘿嘿嘿

7
00:00:09,500 --> 00:00:10,500
实际上这很正常

8
00:00:10,500 --> 00:00:14,160
各位这个正常的回报率呢能做到10%啊

9
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属于顶尖了

10
00:00:14,919 --> 00:00:16,410
因为中国的基金经理啊

11
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连续20年年化10%的啊

12
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连20个都不到

13
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20%

14
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连十个人都不到

15
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各位什么概念

16
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世界上只有一个人

17
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连续70年加20%

18
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就巴菲特就99%的人最后都是亏的

19
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所以投资这个事呢其实很难

20
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还认为投资不难的人呢

21
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都是因为不懂投资者

22
00:00:32,429 --> 00:00:33,329
如果你懂了投资

23
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你发现哇每年年化8%很牛逼了

24
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所以这就是为什么我讲中国海洋水准时候

25
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我在15~18到20之间

26
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我反复的讲

27
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你看我的视频啊

28
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你收全哥驾驶投资

29
00:00:44,390 --> 00:00:45,450
你看我讲多少次

30
00:00:45,450 --> 00:00:47,719
我说你拿着国际信贷八个点是吧

31
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你能做八个点的股息哈

32
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:49,899
12点5年回本

33
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每年还有利润增长

34
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:52,399
10年左右回本很好了

35
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各位西方自由

36
00:00:54,009 --> 00:00:54,789
我是看巴菲特

37
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你抄了作业啊

38
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我不懂西方自由啊

39
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但是我很清楚哈

40
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巴菲特看好的公司哈

41
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EIU最多的公司肯定也不会很差

42
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所以这就是今年重仓了中国海洋石油哈

43
00:01:05,060 --> 00:01:06,099
西方石油啊

44
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前段时间其实我也讲了马拉松石油啊

45
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收益也不错

46
00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,280
其实我讲了不少这种私有公司

47
00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:12,700
大家可以看我的逻辑啊

48
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我在群里面分享了很多次

49
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我说怎么样配置做整体资产配置

50
00:01:17,459 --> 00:01:20,450
2026年你不学会配置

51
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你其实是很难赚到钱的

52
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为什么呢

53
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因为科技股无论是中国美国都属于高估阶段

54
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能源股对吧

55
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也不便宜

56
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然后公共事业消费啊

57
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大家都一致看衰啊

58
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因为消费不行啊

59
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通缩啊

60
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这方面的这种收益率会降低的

61
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什么概念呢

62
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大家都不看好的时候

63
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你这时候配置啊

64
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比如说现在消费股息率五个点以上啊

65
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十倍到15倍的P1啊

66
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利润业绩两位数增长啊

67
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这种公式很好了呀

68
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时间回本啊

69
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他和我去年推荐这个对吧

70
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正常中国好像是由逻辑是一样的

71
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那都是时间回本的逻辑啊

72
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就是你要学会分析我投了这笔钱啊

73
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多少钱能赚回来

74
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这个公司呢

75
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它大概利润增长情况能持续多少年啊

76
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他的雷在哪里啊

77
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哪能拍出哪些风险是吧

78
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最极端的事情出现以后

79
00:02:09,719 --> 00:02:10,879
我该怎么办啊

80
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这有车你的仓位管理嘛

81
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所以如果你想白这些逻辑呢

82
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你很容易赚到钱

83
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而且呢你很难亏钱

84
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但是呢很多人老是盯着那些科技里面的啊

85
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概念哈

86
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今天打仗了哈

87
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明天啊

88
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明天给谁谁谁啊

89
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立好了

90
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后天机器人

91
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人大后天这个杭州四小龙

92
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再后天啊

93
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deep seek啊

94
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再后天某某练哈

95
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再大后天啊

96
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政策加持

97
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嗨

98
00:02:35,729 --> 00:02:38,000
各位都看那个什么质朴啊

99
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mini max啊

100
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哎呀翻一两个月翻了十倍

101
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两个月翻十倍

102
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里面的基金是谁呢

103
00:02:43,300 --> 00:02:44,060
无一例外

104
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这两年只要是半个月暴涨十几倍的

105
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都是国家队

106
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各位无论是寒武纪啊

107
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还是这个啊这个穆西股份啊

108
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还是这个摩尔县城

109
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还是b max什么啊

110
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还有包括智普

111
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全是国家队

112
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没有一个例外

113
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各位你们好好看一看

114
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这些都是钱

115
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不是老百姓赚的

116
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国家队赚的啊

117
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你千万在中国

118
00:03:03,870 --> 00:03:04,569
你记住啊

119
00:03:04,569 --> 00:03:07,159
赚快钱不可能亏钱

120
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不该你赚

121
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只有国家队能赚

122
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这个VR是他的资产

123
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是他的哈哈我们也是他的对吧

124
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你要相信只有他能够赚快钱

125
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你看昨天不是什么陈小群

126
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什么没收什么31啊

127
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很正常

128
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各位你不可能没收你这个这个这个叫徐翔

129
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已经有前车之鉴了对吧

130
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那徐翔怎么怎么关进去的呀

131
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那不就挣了四五百个亿吗

132
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那不就帮着他卖rather rather2代操盘嘛

133
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对不对

134
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那你他都进去了

135
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你你你程咬金

136
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你上个毛啊

137
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对不对

138
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所以大家一定要理性

139
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你知道吗

140
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就有些钱不该你赚

141
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你就别赚对吧

142
00:03:38,530 --> 00:03:40,689
你就老老实实当个散户啊

143
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当散户的第一要素呢是你要想怎么不亏

144
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还不是想着我要赚多少

145
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我要进攻进攻啥呀

146
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你有什么好进攻的呀

147
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你能守好就不错了啊

148
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你这辈子能不摘就不错对吧

149
00:03:50,689 --> 00:03:52,629
你你能到40岁啊

150
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能有吃有喝

151
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有老婆有孩子啊

152
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然后有有有有现金流是吧

153
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不倒闭

154
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对不对

155
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可以了

156
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对你就别想那么多

157
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有些钱不该你赚

158
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对不对

159
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你国家难的时候

160
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你应该更难才对啊

161
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什么国家难的时候你好

162
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那可能吗

163
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是不是对吧

164
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那别人都差

165
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就你好像可能嘛就有一个东西可能像我这种哈

166
00:04:12,919 --> 00:04:14,169
我在美国可能对吧

167
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那别人不好

168
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那我干好的好

169
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因为美国现在那赚钱的人很多

170
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马斯克身价马上到1.5万亿美金了

171
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那有马斯克在我们这种小香辣米不算啥对吧

172
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马超越天天可以炫耀他的万亿美金身价

173
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那那中国没有人敢说呀

174
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谁谁当首富

175
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谁下台啊

176
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对不对

177
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那谁敢当首富呀

178
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要不进去

179
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要不就over

180
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所以说我觉得你在中国呢和美国不太一样啊

181
00:04:35,339 --> 00:04:37,819
那那那那那美国这个总统啊

182
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这个川普在位几年还增长了几10亿身价呢

183
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还全球排名都都前几百名了

184
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对不对

185
00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,779
那那美国他是可以论文化啊

186
00:04:45,779 --> 00:04:46,500
你赚的再多钱

187
00:04:46,500 --> 00:04:48,100
你也没马斯克多对吧

188
00:04:48,100 --> 00:04:49,060
你你赚钱再快

189
00:04:49,060 --> 00:04:50,860
你也没创创不快啊

190
00:04:50,860 --> 00:04:51,860
你你你再牛逼

191
00:04:51,860 --> 00:04:53,980
你也没人家美国这个啊

192
00:04:53,980 --> 00:04:55,220
这个这个这个巴菲特牛逼

193
00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:56,819
所以在美国你高调不起来

194
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你随便高调

195
00:04:57,759 --> 00:04:59,110
你你也没有人家高调

196
00:04:59,110 --> 00:05:01,050
所以这就是在美国你可以炫富啊

197
00:05:01,050 --> 00:05:02,509
在中国你绝对不能炫富

198
00:05:02,509 --> 00:05:04,110
在中国呢你就老老实实的对吧

199
00:05:04,110 --> 00:05:05,389
你活着就行了对吧

200
00:05:05,389 --> 00:05:07,519
你你看看这个余华的书对吧

201
00:05:07,519 --> 00:05:08,720
你就是活着啊

202
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:09,879
下一秒灾难在在哪里

203
00:05:09,879 --> 00:05:10,759
你是不知道的

204
00:05:10,759 --> 00:05:12,319
是你唯一的就是你

205
00:05:12,319 --> 00:05:14,769
你把每一天当成最后一天是吧

206
00:05:14,769 --> 00:05:15,389
你就懂了

207
00:05:15,389 --> 00:05:17,589
就是啊差不多也行是吧

208
00:05:17,589 --> 00:05:19,750
这个在中国的这球之内

209
00:05:19,750 --> 00:05:21,730
那跟着国家队绝对没错啊

210
00:05:21,730 --> 00:05:24,050
跟着国家队那那但是问题是你咱跟不上对吧

211
00:05:24,050 --> 00:05:27,389
你国家队那天使轮投资那投那个mini max智谱啊

212
00:05:27,389 --> 00:05:28,988
寒武纪那人家买的很便宜

213
00:05:28,988 --> 00:05:30,588
可能几块钱能到几千块钱了

214
00:05:30,588 --> 00:05:31,629
人家没办法

215
00:05:31,629 --> 00:05:33,100
你跟不上你只你只能认

216
00:05:33,100 --> 00:05:33,980
那你你和二哈

217
00:05:33,980 --> 00:05:35,699
你你那你也得需要关系对吧

218
00:05:35,699 --> 00:05:37,279
那你那你剩下怎么办呢

219
00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:38,399
你关没有关系怎么办

220
00:05:38,399 --> 00:05:39,899
那那就老老实多加点投资哈

221
00:05:39,899 --> 00:05:42,379
那就是像我似的鼓励心态是吧

222
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我就20年回本年化5%

223
00:05:44,149 --> 00:05:44,829
我很开心

224
00:05:44,829 --> 00:05:45,790
我很满意是吧

225
00:05:45,790 --> 00:05:47,069
我不要暴富啊

226
00:05:47,069 --> 00:05:47,750
我就死拿

227
00:05:47,750 --> 00:05:48,509
那算下来

228
00:05:48,509 --> 00:05:50,269
我的年化也10%几20对吧

229
00:05:50,269 --> 00:05:52,110
那10%几20比起美股50%

230
00:05:52,110 --> 00:05:52,829
那肯定没法比

231
00:05:52,829 --> 00:05:54,509
但是问题是咱也赚钱呀

232
00:05:54,509 --> 00:05:54,949
对不对

233
00:05:54,949 --> 00:05:55,589
咱10%几

234
00:05:55,589 --> 00:05:56,769
咱跑赢90%多了

235
00:05:56,769 --> 00:05:57,970
所以年下10%几

236
00:05:57,970 --> 00:05:59,189
他们95%的股民啊

237
00:05:59,189 --> 00:06:02,110
这说实在实在这个A股股民没有几个赚钱的呀

238
00:06:02,110 --> 00:06:05,529
所以这个就是核心兄弟们认清自己是吧

239
00:06:05,529 --> 00:06:06,769
认清现实是吧

240
00:06:06,769 --> 00:06:08,290
然后呢是吧

241
00:06:08,290 --> 00:06:11,300
这个呃高调做事

242
00:06:11,300 --> 00:06:11,899
低调做人

243
00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:13,180
当然了

244
00:06:13,180 --> 00:06:14,339
做事也别太高调啊

245
00:06:14,339 --> 00:06:15,620
就跟这个程咬金似的

246
00:06:15,620 --> 00:06:17,720
这这这苦心经营30个亿啊

247
00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,319
我相信他也有能力的家伙一一把没收啊

248
00:06:20,319 --> 00:06:22,060
这个还是很心痛的对吧

249
00:06:22,060 --> 00:06:24,600
那30个亿这辈子肯定也就这点钱了

250
00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,579
那再想起来那几乎不可能了

251
00:06:26,579 --> 00:06:27,180
对不对

252
00:06:27,180 --> 00:06:29,100
那咱中国的机会就是转瞬即逝

253
00:06:29,100 --> 00:06:31,180
哎过了这个村没这个店是吧

254
00:06:31,180 --> 00:06:32,100
咱在中国做生意

255
00:06:32,100 --> 00:06:32,800
咱也知道

256
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,139
哪怕咱是说市场经济

257
00:06:34,139 --> 00:06:36,110
咱也咱也没法复制是吧

258
00:06:36,110 --> 00:06:38,230
那那差不多有一事就满足啊

259
00:06:38,230 --> 00:06:38,769
当然了

260
00:06:38,769 --> 00:06:39,829
那好处是什么呢

261
00:06:39,829 --> 00:06:40,990
那中国永远有机会啊

262
00:06:40,990 --> 00:06:43,819
1~1切的市场呢啊你只要不被侵扰啊

263
00:06:43,819 --> 00:06:45,439
你别在这对你有害的一边

264
00:06:45,439 --> 00:06:46,620
永远都可以等到

265
00:06:46,620 --> 00:06:47,720
但前提是什么呢

266
00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:48,800
就你得等着啊

267
00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:49,560
你得观察啊

268
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:50,269
你得理性

269
00:06:50,269 --> 00:06:52,910
你千万别再站在那刀尖上舔火是吧

270
00:06:52,910 --> 00:06:54,189
那别人在切蛋糕的时候

271
00:06:54,189 --> 00:06:55,110
你离得远远的啊

272
00:06:55,110 --> 00:06:56,149
人家劝完了

273
00:06:56,149 --> 00:06:58,170
吃完了你眼疾手快对吧

274
00:06:58,170 --> 00:06:59,250
你不要跟国家队竞争

275
00:06:59,250 --> 00:06:59,689
吃蛋糕人

276
00:06:59,689 --> 00:07:00,569
你别竞争啊

277
00:07:00,569 --> 00:07:01,209
你竞争过他

278
00:07:01,209 --> 00:07:02,170
你你就倒霉

279
00:07:02,170 --> 00:07:02,930
你竞争不过他

280
00:07:02,930 --> 00:07:04,160
你更倒霉对吧

281
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:04,759
你得罪了他

282
00:07:04,759 --> 00:07:05,620
那绝对没好处

283
00:07:05,620 --> 00:07:08,480
所以实际上呢我们呢就是认清自己哈

284
00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:09,829
我们是个散户啊

285
00:07:09,829 --> 00:07:11,129
我们是个吃瓜群众是吧

286
00:07:11,129 --> 00:07:14,129
我们那就是一个弱不禁风的小船是吧

287
00:07:14,129 --> 00:07:15,449
能活的就行了啊

288
00:07:15,449 --> 00:07:17,879
想高调到可以高调的地方去啊

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