投资赚钱亏损原因

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我给大家讲啊

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做投资哪些人一定能赚钱

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哪些人一定会亏钱啊

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转一圈的人就是绝对理性

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对自己呢非常了解啊

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比如说哎像我这种啊

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我是一个非常理性

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但是呢脾气很暴

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但是呢对事的标准很高的人

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所以呢你看我做任何事

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我从来想明白

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比如说我想赚快钱

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那我就买成长啊

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买这个空间反转

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然后买这个烟蒂里面可以是吧

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大额分红

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大额回购现金是没有问题的是吧

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这个呢可以以小博大

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为什么呢

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因为我原来做的生意

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比如说我做串货

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串货是不是博弈啊

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那个可以赚快钱

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小资金哎

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以小博大

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第二个呢哎我也做过烟蒂啊

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比如说我做过德式收音机

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那德云风机这种生意呢

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你看啊它看似是个信阳行业

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但是实际上也赚钱

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为啥呢

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客单价很高

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买高端风机的人都很有钱

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而且呢品牌方呢基本上一个心态啊

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烟蒂什么炎帝心态呢

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就是品牌方没有任何的要求啊

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比如说哎今年你能卖个3000万可以了

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明年卖2500

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他也接受

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后年卖2000

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他也能理解

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微车哥信药行业不给你考核

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但是这种行业呢只能赚点

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以小博大

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叫高RO1哎

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你拿个100万可以赚200万

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这就是在投资里面赚快钱

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必须是困境反转啊

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还有潜力

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第二种呢就是大钱大钱什么呢

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就重仓啊

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梭哈啊

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长期这样

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这就是为什么我第一仓位在美股给到谷歌啊

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直接翻倍

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为什么呢

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大资金确定性强

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哎体量大是吧

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然后呢这个啊稳定啊

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不会有大的波动

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就这样呢一年也翻倍了

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对大钱要买伟大的公司

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要长期持有啊

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花呗在老段你看重仓的都是第一仓位给到得苹果了吧

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后面的话你看巴菲特今年加了三百一十三百五十一的谷歌吧

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你再看下巴菲特呢今年呢是吧

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他的这个买的五大双市啊

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100多亿美金

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现在都400亿美金了是吧

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还有高额的分红

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所以但凡赚大钱呢

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你必须是一个大钱的逻辑

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还有一种呢就赚什么钱呢

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哼赚中间的钱是吧

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不大不小不大不小的呢

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有消费类的

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各位很多人看不到消费

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但是你要考虑一条啊

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消费目前是无论是美国还是中国

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都是因为硅基把这个碳基的这些钱拿走了

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比如说AI一起来之后

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哎

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把这些技术岗位

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中等高等收入的人的职位给取代了

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大家失业了对吧

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对未来运气不好了

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你看失业率越来越高啊

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无论是中美都这样的

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美国失业率也很高

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所以呢碳基生命呢消费力下降

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消费力呢对吧

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带来的一个结果是什么呢

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就是美国他们现在消费也不景气是吧

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大家都开始穷游了啊

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比如说现在健身房啊

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海边免费的变得好了

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对这个是什么呢

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这个就是碳基和硅基的一个矛盾点

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他是个博弈点

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所以本质上AI目前呢还没有带来增量

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AI带来的是一个博弈

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但现在你没有办法

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你买消费的目的是什么呢

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就是现金流好对吧

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能够长远牛熊啊

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然后呢能够上升户本周期啊

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比如说你像啊头部的茅台呀啊可口可乐呀

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对茅台有四个点的股息

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那你光靠股就25年对吧

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他能保证他每年能赚这些钱啊

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就没有问题对吧

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能把货卖完

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还能赚这些钱

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将来不用打广告也能卖是吧

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可口可乐平常发挥这一年拿股息八费的分十个亿啊

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10亿美金啊

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当年投资的话可能也不到10亿美金

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所以呢你看你买消费的目的是什么呢

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就是为了分红

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躺着收租金

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是不是就是你在做这个决策之前

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你要想好啊

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你如果你想玩高难度高收益

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你可以玩困境反转啊

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你也可以玩潜力股

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困境反转对要求很高

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是对你这个行业啊

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对公司的了解非常清楚

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因为所有的分析判断公司肯定有问题

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商业模式肯定不好

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但你要会买

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你要还会卖

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你要买的便宜

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你要卖到一个不错的别

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然后成长呢对行业也非常了解啊

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对行业的预期啊

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他是什么样的行业啊

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大概能到什么程度啊

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比如我做学习机的

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我在跑未来趟赚了四倍

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哈哈哈是吧

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我在很多的小标记上才赚了三四倍

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为啥呢

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因为我是这个行业从业人士

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但我知道这个行业会怎么样啊

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互联网类的也很多啊

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赚了几倍的公司

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这就是你的擅长点

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所以空气盘点其实要求很高啊

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大部分人玩不了啊

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很容易买到破产啊

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破产退市的公司

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因为他不了解这个行业

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他的思考的维度很单一

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所以呢如果说哎你不是很专业

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你最好不要碰喷气反转

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你只要碰空气反转

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你要求你非常非常专业啊

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这个呢是你玩这种以小博大的一个点啊

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那什么人一样亏钱呢

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各位亏钱的有个特点啊

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不懂对我来讲哈

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特别感性的人

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感性的人呢

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你不要碰资金盘产

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不要碰青岛

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你就买伟大的公司

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你买指数啊

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无论是买标普纳指啊

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甚至来讲买富士山买哈哈

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三个点年化也比在那里瞎子更强

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为啥呢

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因为感性的人他的思维理念很单一对吧

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特别是北方啊

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山东的啊

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山东的北方的

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我跟你讲

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尤其是这样的

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就是大家呢认死理

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就他很感性

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他所有对他的角色是情绪

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是市场波动

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是市场的氛围

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是别人给他的啊

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很多很多的带来的压力

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就是这种呢他属于那种跟随型的

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你没有独立思考能力

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你没法独立判断对吧

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你没法做到面如镜如啊

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心静如水

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你更做不到对吧

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像今年34月份啊

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市场给了大机会的时候

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哎你害怕了

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你看现在群里面天天都是这样啊

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天哥大V都有三千八百一千斤啊

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是不是美国要崩盘了

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我今天我就跟一个人开玩笑

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我说美国当然崩盘了呀

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我说你看啊

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在那个这个海边啊

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是一个公园啊

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那个海边全是游艇

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美国的游艇在吃灰

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加不出油了啊

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美国的这个房子呢

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一套房子啊

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水泥湾旁边水泥湾吧

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一套房子四五千万美金

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交不起物业费了

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他也信哈哈

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所以你这类人呢

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你是不适合做投资的

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为啥呢

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因为你无法透过现象看到本质

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你也无法通过逻辑啊

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能够推演一些结果啊

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你也做不到啊

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像针对像我们天天的花史稿时研究思考

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如果这些你都做不到

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那你就买指数

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所以投资本质上你了解自己

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你是谁啊

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你你你这是什么性格哈哈你在市场里面你能受到多大风险对吧

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最关键的是你的收益预期

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各位你能有八个点到十个点不得了了

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8~10个点

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我给大家讲一个数据啊

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拉长20年

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A股里面年化超过20%的不到20个

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不到十个人就拉长20年以上啊

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在A股年化百分超20的就是不到十个人

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基金经理啊

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或者说基金经理你可以查任何的公开数据

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单兵肯定到不了20

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单兵充其量10~12

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嘿嘿哈

238
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巴菲特为什么要股权呢

239
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70年年化20%

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最近这15年年化只有10%

241
00:06:51,769 --> 00:06:56,470
所以跑赢指数是对99%的基金经理跑不赢指数

242
00:06:56,470 --> 00:06:59,470
那你凭什么认为你的年货黑到50%

243
00:06:59,470 --> 00:07:01,509
所以实际上你只要不贪

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00:07:01,509 --> 00:07:03,180
你也亏不了什么钱

245
00:07:03,180 --> 00:07:05,420
所以呢你很多人上来跟我说

246
00:07:05,420 --> 00:07:06,920
钱哥我的收益预期不高

247
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哎你好吧

248
00:07:07,459 --> 00:07:08,339
那我是企业行

249
00:07:08,339 --> 00:07:09,699
嘿你有没有好的方法

250
00:07:09,699 --> 00:07:11,869
嘿我说有像我一样研究

251
00:07:12,569 --> 00:07:13,288
我可以

252
00:07:13,288 --> 00:07:13,769
为什么呢

253
00:07:13,769 --> 00:07:15,168
因为我花的时间多是吧

254
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我喜欢哈

255
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我真研究所我能做到

256
00:07:17,889 --> 00:07:19,910
但是你是不是这块材料

257
00:07:19,910 --> 00:07:21,750
你能不能做得到这个标准

258
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你是不是真正意义上能下这个功夫

259
00:07:24,149 --> 00:07:25,389
如果你都不治

260
00:07:25,389 --> 00:07:27,290
你凭什么能认为到50%呢

261
00:07:27,290 --> 00:07:28,029
10%

262
00:07:28,029 --> 00:07:30,449
99%的专业的人做不到10%

263
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你凭什么认为你50%呢

264
00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,459
今年AI好像很多人暴富了

265
00:07:34,459 --> 00:07:35,480
但是你好好看看

266
00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,040
我看到他们韩国的数据

267
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,779
就今年这么好的盘股的行情

268
00:07:40,779 --> 00:07:42,600
赚钱的人极少

269
00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:44,120
赚钱赚大钱

270
00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,060
80%到90人没赚到钱

271
00:07:46,060 --> 00:07:47,620
大钱为什么能赚大钱呢

272
00:07:47,620 --> 00:07:49,139
是因为资金量大

273
00:07:49,139 --> 00:07:50,779
重度懂行业

274
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行业内部人士又有钱

275
00:07:53,009 --> 00:07:56,110
所以人家放那根本就不动拿到八倍十倍

276
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但是90%的人一个波动下去了

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在拉通两个月之前看一下三阿尔克斯海力士

278
00:08:03,079 --> 00:08:05,639
各位十二十多块钱的时候

279
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有几个拿得住的

280
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,939
21的时候没有都吓跑了

281
00:08:08,939 --> 00:08:10,699
所以我给大家讲啊

282
00:08:10,699 --> 00:08:12,259
认清自己

283
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认清自己是做投资的第一步

284
00:08:15,259 --> 00:08:18,369
而不是单纯的看市场

285
00:08:18,369 --> 00:08:19,928
当你了解自己的时候

286
00:08:19,928 --> 00:08:21,528
你就能做到不亏了

287
00:08:21,528 --> 00:08:22,809
你只要能做到不亏

288
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你跑赢90%的投资人

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