104%，谁更难受？

1
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川普持续闹脾气

2
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在中国对美国采取对等反制措施后

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他表示

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如果中国不在4月8日前撤回反制措施

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就会在4月9日

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对中国加征额外的50%的关税

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使得总关税来到104%

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现在4月9日已到104%

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关税已经落地

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这绝对是歇斯底里式的胁迫

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他会有这么激烈的反应

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是因为中国34%的反击远超他预料

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让他有些措手不及

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而且他真心害怕其他贸易伙伴看到他耍流氓

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不奏效的样子

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就在4月9日到期前

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川普还发出各种明示

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暗示想要中国给他打电话

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像极了守在电话前等对方道歉的情侣

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过了午夜电话也没来

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微信也没来

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再每隔10分钟看一下手机

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就是睡不着

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然后还要发朋友圈宣布自己赢了

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今天我们用底线思维

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从中美经济结构差异说起

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并且做最坏假设

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如果中美经贸真的脱钩

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又会怎么样

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怎么弥补

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以及做好自己的事

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一中美结构差异

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现在的情况有些戏剧性

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美国作为消费国

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想扩大生产和出口

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中国作为出口国

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产能巨大

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但消费能力不足

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这是两个国家深层次经济结构差异导致的

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中国经济以制造业为核心

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2023年

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第二产业工业占GDP比重达38.3%

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制造业增加值占全球30%

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形成了从劳动密集型到技术密集型产业

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的完整产业链

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中国这种结构依赖大规模生产

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出口导向和固定资产投资

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但消费对GDP的贡献率54.6%

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远低于美国

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同时由于经济发展阶段差异和

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社会保障相对不足

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中国居民储蓄率长期维持在30%以上

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而储蓄偏好抑制了消费

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作为对比

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美国服务业占GDP比重81.5%

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个人消费支出占经济活动的70%

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2024年规模接近18万亿美元

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美国经济增长主要依赖金融

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高科技

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医疗等高附加值服务业

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制造业占GDP的10%

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例如苹果公司通过掌控苹果产业链的顶端

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获取IPHONE销售利润的58.5%

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而中国只占3.6%

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由于占据几乎所有产业链的顶端位置

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美国的人均GDP是中国的五倍多

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尽管各自均存在长处与短处

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但中美经济是互补程度很高的

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原本可以成为最好的经贸伙伴

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完全可以通过各自内部的分配制度改革

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加强经贸合作来化解各自经济结构的不平衡

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但川普直接上暴力打法

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就是不希望贸易伙伴赚取顺差

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这种对经济学的片面理解和莫名的固执

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导致所有人成为受害者

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川普以及其某些团队成员

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对于一些低附加值制造业的盲目追求

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最终也难以成功

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因为这也不符合美国大多数人的利益

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二需求缺口与补充

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2024年

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中国对美出口额为5246.5

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6亿美元

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同比增长4.9%

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换算成人民币大约是3.8

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5万亿

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人民币

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大约相当于中国GDP总量的2.9%

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相当于中国社会消费品零售总额的8%

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我们从底线思维出发

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做最极端最糟糕的假设

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假定美国不从中国进口一分钱的东西了

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而且中国其他贸易伙伴也无法补足任何一点

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美国带来的需求缺口

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于是在这个假设场景下

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中国只能完全依靠内需来弥补这个需求缺口

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也就是说

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在不考虑消费结构的前提下

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中国需要增加3.85万亿的消费

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避免陷入更严重的供大于求和通货紧缩

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3.85万亿

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比上中国14亿人口

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人均年度消费要增加2750元人民币

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对于正在看视频的你而言

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这个数字可能并不算多

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但要刺激这个需求

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关键在于中低收入者

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比如一个已经吃饱穿暖

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家里电器齐全且生活水平优越的家庭而言

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你给他们一笔钱

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他们可能不会再去买吃的或买衣服了

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而会存起来或去做其他服务类的可选消费

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但对于一个仅温饱水平的家庭来说

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给他们一笔钱

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他们就会用这笔钱去改善生活

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因为吃好穿好用好是刚需

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这笔钱的消费比率注定会非常高

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所以低收入群体是提升内需的关键所在

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想象一下

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美国人口只有中国的1/4

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但总消费能力和全社会零售规模

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比中国还要高一截

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就是因为美国有相当大比例

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超过一半的中产和富裕阶层

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可以源源不断地提供强劲购买力

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但中国虽然有14亿人真正敢于消费的

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或者可以与美国平均消费能力对标的

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人口总数可能不到1亿人

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中金公司数据显示

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2024年

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中国家庭人均月收入低于1000元的人口

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为5.46亿人

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占全国人口38.7%

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其中陵园546万人

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如五保户流浪汉等

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0~500元

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2.15亿人

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500~800元

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2.02亿人

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800~1000元

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1.24亿人

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仅仅这部分月收入低于1000元的人口总量

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就等于美国总人口的1.6倍

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也比欧盟27国加起来还要多

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应对美国极限施压和外部环境动荡

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如果做好社会保障与福利

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刺激消费

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就能够以不变应万变

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这些措施包括但不限于

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取消医保双轨制

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逐步探索全民免费医疗

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将全国农村老人的养老金

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从现在的每月100至200

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大幅提升到每月至少1000元

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不考虑其他的

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只要做成这两件事

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内需绝对会迎来一轮大增长

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前面提到美国进口中国商品的需求

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对应到每个中国人身上

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不过就是一年2750人民币

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一个月不到230元

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如果我们可以让全民更放心地看病

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并托底最困难的56亿人基础生活

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现在中方和川普政府想要的东西各不相同

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实现起来的难度和时间也不相同

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对于美国来说

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缺的是他想要的制造业

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美国想提升制造业规模和竞争力

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不仅需要完善上下游产业链

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供应链需要培育足够多的产业工人

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而且决策权并不在白宫

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而在无数跨国公司的董事会

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这一切不是一朝一夕可以做好的

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就算一切朝着这个方向全速推进

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但对于中国来说

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缺的是消费能力

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要提升消费能力

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只需福利托底和财政发力

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短期内就能快速把消费力给到老百姓手上

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是可以立竿见影的

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所以只要方向不出错

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中国在这场博弈的初期并不处于劣势

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三谁更困难

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104%的关税几乎意味着贸易的中断

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双方都会难受

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但短期和长期存在差异

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短期看美国的痛感会很强

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因为美国对中国以及其他贸易伙伴加征的关税

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一旦落地

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就会迅速体现在消费品物价上

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如今美国亚马逊best bad

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至少有八成的商品都来自于中国

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而且这些商品的大头还不是衣服袜子鞋子

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而是总价较高的工业制成品

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例如手机

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电视机

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电脑家居等等

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这些商品和能源

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粮食铁矿石不同

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全世界的资源生产国多的是可替代性强

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但又好又便宜

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量又大的制造能力

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在中短期内还真的只有中国能提供

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我去年就在美国布置了西雅图

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新家的所有家居软装

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几乎全部都在亚马逊和威菲尔上下单

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其中在亚马逊30天内下了60多个订单

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对中国制造感触非常深

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在我买的东西里

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除了一些纯木重家具

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来自巴西

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马来西亚的木材生产国

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其他清一色都是中国制造

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现在关税已经发展到104%

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加上后

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意味着所有来自中国的东西价格要贵大约一倍

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我很难想象这一幕变成现实后

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美国普通消费者会怎么想

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这在短期内几乎是无解的

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因为其他国家

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比如越南

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印度

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墨西哥

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在中短期内

225
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远没有足够的产能补充这个巨大缺口

226
00:07:40,649 --> 00:07:42,050
另外来自中国

227
00:07:42,050 --> 00:07:42,449
欧盟

228
00:07:42,449 --> 00:07:44,970
加拿大等贸易伙伴的报复会打击美国

229
00:07:49,750 --> 00:07:51,069
痛感会有多强

230
00:07:51,069 --> 00:07:52,550
民意会有多少改变

231
00:07:52,550 --> 00:07:54,110
都是值得观察的事

232
00:07:54,110 --> 00:07:55,129
对中国来说

233
00:07:55,129 --> 00:07:57,209
伴随美国这一大块外需的空缺

234
00:07:57,209 --> 00:07:59,819
国内供大于求的通缩情况可能会更重

235
00:07:59,819 --> 00:08:01,240
就业也会雪上加霜

236
00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,040
同时伴随其他国家产业链供应链的布局和成熟

237
00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,019
中国制造中长期看也有被取代的风险

238
00:08:07,019 --> 00:08:08,540
所以如上文所述

239
00:08:08,540 --> 00:08:10,959
中国必须培育更强的内需市场

240
00:08:10,959 --> 00:08:14,040
而刺激内需的关键又在社会保障托底

241
00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,279
如果有效提升社会福利保障水平

242
00:08:16,279 --> 00:08:17,279
这次中美交锋

243
00:08:17,279 --> 00:08:19,560
中国的痛感就会显著低于美国

244
00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,459
但如果任由内卷持续

245
00:08:21,459 --> 00:08:23,259
任由弱势群体自生自灭

246
00:08:23,259 --> 00:08:25,509
那么中国长期的痛感就会更大

247
00:08:25,509 --> 00:08:27,389
一个自己有14亿人的国家

248
00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:29,250
对3亿人的需求这般依赖

249
00:08:29,250 --> 00:08:31,810
这本身也是不合理的

250
00:08:31,810 --> 00:08:34,370
四投降不是出路

251
00:08:34,370 --> 00:08:37,169
最近有不少人对川普无厘头的关税算法

252
00:08:37,169 --> 00:08:39,570
以及挑起贸易战的荒唐行为一言不发

253
00:08:39,570 --> 00:08:41,519
却对中国的反击意见很大

254
00:08:41,519 --> 00:08:43,320
我在之前的主题明确表示

255
00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:44,580
我不认同这个观点

256
00:08:44,580 --> 00:08:45,840
这些已经失去理智

257
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,399
并站在与自身利益相悖角度思考问题的

258
00:08:48,399 --> 00:08:50,809
川粉应该问自己几个问题

259
00:08:50,809 --> 00:08:53,830
一以色列在美国推出对等关税之前

260
00:08:53,830 --> 00:08:55,620
就对美国关税降低至零

261
00:08:55,620 --> 00:08:58,240
越南和印度提前降低对美关税税率

262
00:08:58,240 --> 00:08:59,840
并加大美国商品进口

263
00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:01,200
换来豁免了吗

264
00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:02,090
没有

265
00:09:02,799 --> 00:09:06,100
中国过去两个月被川普两次加征各10%

266
00:09:06,100 --> 00:09:08,279
中国这两次的回应相对克制

267
00:09:08,279 --> 00:09:08,759
低调

268
00:09:08,759 --> 00:09:10,240
换来川普的尊重了吗

269
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,509
没有三

270
00:09:11,509 --> 00:09:14,190
日本的软银带头投资美国1万亿美元

271
00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:15,830
换来川普的善意了吗

272
00:09:15,830 --> 00:09:17,559
没有四

273
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,000
对等关税公布后

274
00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:19,480
越南

275
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,440
欧盟等国家非常客气的提出

276
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,039
对美国零关税的建议

277
00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:24,159
川普答应了吗

278
00:09:24,159 --> 00:09:25,500
没有不仅没答应

279
00:09:25,500 --> 00:09:26,879
还继续要更大的价

280
00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:30,019
说欧盟必须采购美国3500亿美元能源

281
00:09:30,019 --> 00:09:31,919
还说越南是中国的殖民地

282
00:09:31,919 --> 00:09:34,759
事情搞到扣帽子的程度就已经失去理智了

283
00:09:34,759 --> 00:09:36,620
不是靠谈能解决的了

284
00:09:36,620 --> 00:09:40,620
五加拿大面对美国威胁保持对等强力反击

285
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:43,980
不不敢了

286
00:09:43,980 --> 00:09:46,129
他还撤回了很大一部分关税

287
00:09:46,129 --> 00:09:47,029
面对讹诈

288
00:09:47,029 --> 00:09:47,750
你让一步

289
00:09:47,750 --> 00:09:49,190
对方就会再贪两步

290
00:09:49,190 --> 00:09:51,250
最好的办法就是陪他玩一阵子

291
00:09:51,250 --> 00:09:52,309
让他感觉到痛

292
00:09:52,309 --> 00:09:53,710
看谁先受不了

293
00:09:53,710 --> 00:09:55,450
尽管自己也会感觉到痛

294
00:09:55,450 --> 00:09:56,669
但挑事的是对方

295
00:09:56,669 --> 00:09:58,169
这是避无可避的事

296
00:09:58,169 --> 00:10:00,370
你想通过逃避和屈服的方式回避

297
00:10:00,370 --> 00:10:01,909
对方就吃定你了

298
00:10:01,909 --> 00:10:04,070
再说要看时间在谁的一边

299
00:10:04,070 --> 00:10:05,440
川普能蹦跶多久呢

300
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,159
到中选也就是一年多

301
00:10:07,159 --> 00:10:08,759
到大选是3年多再说

302
00:10:08,759 --> 00:10:09,580
这样闹下去

303
00:10:09,580 --> 00:10:10,279
谁能保证

304
00:10:10,279 --> 00:10:13,589
参众两院的每一个共和党议员都会一直支持他

305
00:10:13,589 --> 00:10:15,308
因此作为一个普通人

306
00:10:15,308 --> 00:10:17,109
我支持中国不卑不亢的反制

307
00:10:17,109 --> 00:10:18,408
这不仅仅是为中国

308
00:10:18,408 --> 00:10:19,759
更是为世界秩序

309
00:10:19,759 --> 00:10:21,200
战后的国际体系本身

310
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,759
也包含多边贸易秩序

311
00:10:22,759 --> 00:10:24,940
中国站出来反抗川普的经贸霸凌

312
00:10:24,940 --> 00:10:26,980
这和乌克兰站出来抵抗俄罗斯侵略

313
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,279
本质是一样的道理

314
00:10:28,279 --> 00:10:30,080
都是应当支持的

315
00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:31,799
当然我不仅期待中国

316
00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:33,960
对待外部讹诈保持坚强态度

317
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,789
更期待中国全力提升国内民生福利

318
00:10:36,789 --> 00:10:40,200
比如发一些钱给年收入3万以内的低收入者

319
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,820
比如全国范围内提供相同标准的

320
00:10:42,820 --> 00:10:44,100
丰厚的生育补贴

321
00:10:44,100 --> 00:10:46,360
比如大幅提升农村老人的养老金

322
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,929
又比如构建大病免费医疗

323
00:10:48,929 --> 00:10:50,429
只要把这些事做好

324
00:10:50,429 --> 00:10:52,649
一切外部压力都不会是问题

325
00:10:52,649 --> 00:10:54,710
强劲的内需和不断改善的名声

326
00:10:54,710 --> 00:10:58,110
将会成为中国对外强硬的最大底气所在

327
00:11:02,210 --> 00:11:03,730
我希望并且相信

328
00:11:03,730 --> 00:11:06,929
今天这则主题中设想的最坏情况不会成为现实

329
00:11:06,929 --> 00:11:08,129
但对于中国来说

330
00:11:08,129 --> 00:11:09,570
加大托底民生力度

331
00:11:09,570 --> 00:11:11,610
给予全社会消费更大的空间

332
00:11:11,610 --> 00:11:14,129
尽一切努力让中国老百姓过上好日子

333
00:11:14,129 --> 00:11:16,634
永远是一个正确的方向

334
00:11:18,779 --> 00:11:20,360
如果你喜欢本期视频

335
00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:21,779
希望可以点赞关注

336
00:11:21,779 --> 00:11:22,480
支持一波

337
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,820
这将对我有很大的帮助

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