【视野环球财经】20260518美股 NVDA对比AMD，为何不贵？半导体再回吐，Put保护大增！马斯克败诉！BRK清仓UNH更新！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是RINO

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现在是美东时间20年5月18号

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周一晚上的8.05分

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今天呢四大指数盘中的振幅不小

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市场呢是再次受到中东紧张情绪的影响

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周末传出美国准备再次对伊朗动武的消息啊

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今天是开盘第一种

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下午的时候呢

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川普宣布说啊

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应沙特阿联酋和卡塔尔的要求

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他已经取消了原定明天对伊朗发动的袭击

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指数是瞬间反弹

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收复了盘中的大多数跌幅

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不过今天呢这个费城半导体指数啊

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是仍再回撤啊

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本来是一个高开挺好的啊

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一路走低啊

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最后的这个反弹呢也没有反弹的太多呃

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在非办里边儿

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特别是涨幅最近巨大的股票

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他们的回撤力度也比较的大

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特别是存储类的股票啊

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今天很明显是套人的一天呃

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比如我们说一下美光啊

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美光今天是高开了四个点

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有不少的朋友认为呢

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那么存储股是不是会重拾涨势啊

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所以呢看到今天的一个高开

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估计不少的朋友呢在高位是大幅追涨

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而且呢随着一路下跌

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应该也是一路的买啊

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因为今天的成交量不小

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全天的振幅高达12%

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那么如果是高点追涨的

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今天的浮亏是十个点左右

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如果这样的行情再来几次追涨的行情呢

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预计啊这种热情肯定会迅速消退

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特别是有很多三倍杠杆ETF啊

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比如像ASOOXL的追涨的朋友呢

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经过最近两天的下跌

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估计这个持仓的心态啊应该已经是发生了变化

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从快速的赚钱以及呢转换到尽早回本啊

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其实有的时候心态变化非常快啊

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顺丰的时候可能不觉得

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一旦出现了短期的逆风

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那么其实你想要拿还是走

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这就变成了一个非常困难的问题

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所以呢想要投机高增长股票的

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特别是短期涨幅较大股票的朋友呢

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还是应该做好适当的止盈止损计划啊

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这样给你的心理上呢至少有一个不错的防线

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好额

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那么我们再来今天呢主要讲一些什么东西呢

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今天的经济数据啊

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没有什么

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今天呢呃我主要想讲一下

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包括像英伟达的这个财报啊

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财报后的这个波动情况和当前的大致的预期

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以及和它对比一下AMD啊

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为什么一直说啊

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英伟达不贵啊

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这个就和我们之前在AMD没涨的时候对比

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英伟达说AMD的性价比更高是一个道理啊

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所以呢

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呃这是我们今天想把这两个拿出来讲一下

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让大家从价值的角度啊

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知道当前这两个公司到底它的差别在哪

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还有呢就是包括等会再给大家看一下

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像呃像马斯克在对open i的这个诉讼中呢

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是已经败诉了

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还有就是BRK啊

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伯克希尔好久都没有讲啊

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然后呢他也是清仓了

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uh uh也好久没讲了

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把这两只股票也和大家都过一下

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好在说这个之前呢

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我们还是集中再来说一下

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关于费城半导体指数的情况呃

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首先呢我把费半的这个位置给大家再看一眼啊

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费城半导体额

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目前的它的指数的ETF现在489~507

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今天来到了497

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离489更近一步

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这个地方如果跌破之后

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那么短期预示着它这个连续上涨的势头啊

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就要被打压了啊

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暂时就会中断

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后面呢预计会经过一段时间的

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和这个横向的一个调整好吧

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所以呢这是SOXX

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第二个呢就是SMH啊

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给大家也重新再看一遍

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533~552

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现在呢今天是546的收盘价啊

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也是更进一步

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离这个533大家盘中啊自自行去关注一下啊

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这个跌破是以收盘价或者开盘价为准啊

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比方说今天收盘啊

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明天收盘收到了533以下

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或者呢明天开盘直接跳空到了533以下啊

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这种情况都属于破位啊

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暂时呢目前他还可以一战啊

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暂时还没有完全的投降

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仍旧有止跌重拾涨势的可能性好

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为什么呢

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我们说半导体这边的行情

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不一定就是彻底结束了呢

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呃因为这个里边我们存在一个短期的资金流向

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有一些呃需要关注的东西啊

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他们决定了市场短期到底是能够再次走强

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还是说抛压增加

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给大家看一组数据

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呃现在呢所有的杠杆的ETF啊

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就是半导体的杠杆的这个所有的加起来啊

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就是和半导体相关的这个持仓里边的

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差不多有1000亿美元左右的

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半导体的多头的头寸啊

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杠杆的相当于呢

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每天差不多能产生20亿美元左右的

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空头的伽马值

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这个就意味着呢半导体的价格就是非半的价格

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2%的波动

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比如说涨了2%

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那么在上涨的时候呢

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它可以机械式的引发

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差不多40亿美元左右的买盘追涨啊

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属于被动型的这个买盘

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同样在下跌的时候

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如果跌了2%

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同样引发相同规模的抛售

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所以他呢是可以推动价格飙升

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也可以加速价格下跌

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这个东西呢就是我们说上涨挤压的来源之一

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同时也是多杀多的下跌的来源之一

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所以这是一个完全被动的机械式的啊

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它是由于杠杆的这个ETF的这个持仓造成的

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好吧

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所以这个不是说你认为它的基本面怎么样

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它涨还是跌

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是完全取决于短期的这个资金流向

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这个首先大家一定要呃这个了解清楚

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第二个呢如果我们去看全市场的这个广度

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实际上呢今天啊除了半导体受到打击之外

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大多数的个股其实今天的表现还不错

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比如说标普500指数有359只个股上涨

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只有142只下跌

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标普的11个板块里边只有四个下跌

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有七个板块都在上涨啊

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包括你看消费品

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看到没有

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之前非常糟糕的消费品

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今天的涨幅达到了1.49

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是一个不错的涨幅

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而且明显有在抬头的迹象

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这很这是很明显的一个市场的资金

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它正在进行一些轮动和轮换的一个表现哈

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就是说市场当把半导体追得足够多

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利润足够丰厚的时候

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很多的股票短期涨幅巨大的时候

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那么一些超额收益呢就会被拿出来

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布局到低洼的地方

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这是市场在长期以来历史上都是这么干的啊

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我们说树再高也长不到天上去

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就是这个原因

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因为总有一些资金它会进行这种轮换的布局啊

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不会说把一个板块做到头啊

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做到最后的这个呃一点肉全吃光

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因为那个都吃光的时候

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他可能就吃不到了对吧

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他可能就要变成别人先跑了

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他跑的慢了他就少了吧

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好这个呢是我们说半导体和其他的板块的

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这个呃这种反向效应啊是比较明显的

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半导体的痛苦啊

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成就了其他板块的幸福

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正像之前一样

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市场的流动性呢全部被半导体吸走啊

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全市场这是集体下跌啊

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除了半导体涨

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大家都在哀嚎

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只有半导体一枝独秀

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一个道理啊

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所以市场的资金有时候就能跑来跑去

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除了我们说其他的板块获得了大板块

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获得了资金的支持之外

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实际上呢还有一些小的板块子板块也是不错啊

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比如说IHV啊

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IGV呢今天是继续获得资金的支持

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连续第二个交易日放量上涨啊

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今天继续放量

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因为上周五是期权结算

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成交量已经比较大

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今天仍旧和上周五相比

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继续往上放量

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说明什么

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说明这是资金开始介入的迹象

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但是呢这个位置暂时没有办法判断

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到底是主动买盘还是噶空

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如果出现极端涨幅的半导体股票

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在后市继续被卖的情况

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那么软件将极大概率出现更大的隔空

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那么至少呢应该嘎空到200日均

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才会被量化抛售啊

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这个地方至少要嘎到他

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因为这个200日均还在下降啊

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今天是大概99块钱

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100块钱

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随着每天的交易呢往下会走一点点一点点

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大概可以走到

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按照现在这个涨幅来看的话

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可能到98左右啊

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98左右

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后面大概他们能够相遇的地方

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大概是这么个情况呃

218
00:09:34,100 --> 00:09:37,340
所以呢我对IGV的判断不变

219
00:09:37,340 --> 00:09:39,320
如果有嘎空啊

220
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,078
他就走得快一点

221
00:09:41,078 --> 00:09:42,739
如果没有噶空

222
00:09:42,739 --> 00:09:45,979
那么之前已经是完成了89块四的突破

223
00:09:45,979 --> 00:09:47,639
这个回撤问题不大啊

224
00:09:47,639 --> 00:09:48,599
中间没有问题啊

225
00:09:48,599 --> 00:09:49,940
只是一个正常的回撤

226
00:09:49,940 --> 00:09:51,539
因为回撤的时候都在缩量

227
00:09:51,539 --> 00:09:54,240
所以他呢有噶空快一点

228
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:55,000
没有噶空

229
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,379
也会缓慢的向上爬升

230
00:09:57,379 --> 00:09:58,840
那么时间就比较长啊

231
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,529
可能会慢慢的走上几个月的时间

232
00:10:01,529 --> 00:10:05,169
所以上个星期五呢我对于整个的后市啊

233
00:10:05,169 --> 00:10:06,629
有三点判断

234
00:10:06,629 --> 00:10:09,429
今天有两点是符合走势的啊

235
00:10:09,429 --> 00:10:11,509
比如说对大盘的情况的判断

236
00:10:11,509 --> 00:10:13,360
半导体的判断不呀

237
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:13,720
然后呢

238
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,519
第二个是对于这个整个的软件和半导体的这个

239
00:10:17,519 --> 00:10:19,589
对应关系的这个隔空的判断

240
00:10:19,589 --> 00:10:22,548
第三个判断是对于国债的观察判断

241
00:10:22,548 --> 00:10:27,149
国债这边今天是横盘没有动啊

242
00:10:27,149 --> 00:10:28,110
今天横盘啊

243
00:10:28,110 --> 00:10:29,370
4.595啊

244
00:10:29,370 --> 00:10:31,149
在这个地方横着呢没有动

245
00:10:31,149 --> 00:10:32,110
一个上影线打下来

246
00:10:32,110 --> 00:10:32,789
下影线打下来

247
00:10:32,789 --> 00:10:33,509
横在这里好吧

248
00:10:33,509 --> 00:10:35,360
所以是一个比较关键的位置

249
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,840
所以呢目前呢对于市场呃

250
00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,200
现在的走势呢

251
00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,990
市场呢逐渐的又开始发生了一些转化

252
00:10:41,990 --> 00:10:44,350
咱们在周五的节目里边讲的很清楚啊

253
00:10:44,350 --> 00:10:46,830
如果你没有看周五的节目呢

254
00:10:46,830 --> 00:10:48,110
建议回去看一下啊

255
00:10:48,110 --> 00:10:50,139
那个对后面的呃

256
00:10:50,139 --> 00:10:54,649
这个市场的走势呢有一些提前的这个预判好

257
00:10:54,649 --> 00:10:55,350
还有一个呢

258
00:10:55,350 --> 00:10:57,090
就是在半导体上

259
00:10:57,090 --> 00:11:02,750
有一个新的整体的新状况发生啊

260
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:06,200
我们看一下这张图

261
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,080
由于半导体整个的回撤啊

262
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,568
给大盘带来的影响是什么呢

263
00:11:11,568 --> 00:11:16,009
大盘出现了比较明显的风险意识

264
00:11:16,009 --> 00:11:19,208
保护意识就和之前的那种单边是不一样了

265
00:11:19,208 --> 00:11:21,149
之前咱们不是讲单边市场

266
00:11:21,149 --> 00:11:22,149
大家拼命在买涨

267
00:11:22,149 --> 00:11:23,230
那么没有人买跌

268
00:11:23,230 --> 00:11:24,149
那都在买

269
00:11:24,149 --> 00:11:26,269
扣那一半多的资金

270
00:11:26,269 --> 00:11:29,159
一开仓就是期权直接都扣上去

271
00:11:29,159 --> 00:11:30,519
但现在不一样

272
00:11:30,519 --> 00:11:33,529
大家看到今天的情况是比较明显的

273
00:11:33,529 --> 00:11:36,029
由看涨期权是一个中性流啊

274
00:11:36,029 --> 00:11:38,620
非常中性的买入全天都中性

275
00:11:38,620 --> 00:11:43,620
但是大量的看跌期权在集体涌入

276
00:11:43,620 --> 00:11:45,980
这是一个新的变化

277
00:11:45,980 --> 00:11:50,759
是市场意识到了风险正在抬头的一个变化啊

278
00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:51,720
请大家注意好吧

279
00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:52,679
这是资金流向

280
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:57,328
情绪上大家压住的方向上开始在缓慢变化

281
00:11:57,489 --> 00:12:00,568
好额这里讲到了关于费办呢

282
00:12:00,568 --> 00:12:02,769
我就把费办的一些关键股票啊

283
00:12:02,769 --> 00:12:06,924
比方说英伟达AMD这两支和大家讲一讲

284
00:12:09,519 --> 00:12:12,210
首先我来说一下英伟达啊

285
00:12:12,610 --> 00:12:16,490
英伟达呢比如说大家讲啊会问一个问题

286
00:12:16,490 --> 00:12:20,509
如果费城半导体出现了比较大的回撤

287
00:12:20,509 --> 00:12:23,549
那么英伟达会不会也跌的很多

288
00:12:23,549 --> 00:12:24,470
因为我一直在讲

289
00:12:24,470 --> 00:12:25,629
我说它的价格不高嘛

290
00:12:25,629 --> 00:12:27,009
对吧好

291
00:12:27,009 --> 00:12:30,669
咱们首先了解一下在本周财报后

292
00:12:30,669 --> 00:12:32,649
英伟达的期权波动啊

293
00:12:32,649 --> 00:12:34,289
期权的波期权压注的情况

294
00:12:34,289 --> 00:12:36,509
对他股价的波动影响啊

295
00:12:36,509 --> 00:12:40,750
最近的一个期权结算在本周五就是在财报后的

296
00:12:40,750 --> 00:12:43,750
最近的一个222.5啊

297
00:12:43,750 --> 00:12:47,909
222.5上下15美元以内

298
00:12:47,909 --> 00:12:49,590
波动是68%的

299
00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:52,289
大概率15块钱上下15块钱

300
00:12:52,289 --> 00:12:55,809
也就意味着呢这个波动其实不算太大对吧

301
00:12:55,809 --> 00:12:57,610
但对它的市值市值来讲

302
00:12:57,610 --> 00:12:58,490
这么大的市值来讲

303
00:12:58,490 --> 00:12:59,679
这个波动也不小啊

304
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,600
百分之呃这个百呃

305
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:02,519
这个15块钱吧

306
00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:03,480
上下呃

307
00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,019
大概就是反正有那么大几个点啊

308
00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:09,019
违约到10%有大几个点

309
00:13:09,019 --> 00:13:12,789
这是一个68%的一个大概率范围呃

310
00:13:12,789 --> 00:13:16,759
市场对它的财报的共识预期如何呢

311
00:13:16,759 --> 00:13:20,360
预计这一次的财报非常的好啊

312
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,909
预计利润会同比增长约84%

313
00:13:23,909 --> 00:13:26,230
毛利率高达75%

314
00:13:26,230 --> 00:13:29,289
所以本期财报预计不会有太大的问题

315
00:13:29,289 --> 00:13:31,990
问题是前瞻到底怎么样

316
00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:33,330
这个比较重要对吧

317
00:13:33,330 --> 00:13:35,190
这个就影响了财报后的

318
00:13:35,190 --> 00:13:38,068
大家对于未来股价预期的判断

319
00:13:38,068 --> 00:13:40,808
但是呢我们一直在讲财报这个东西啊

320
00:13:40,808 --> 00:13:41,948
他披露之后

321
00:13:41,948 --> 00:13:45,669
后面的这个股价涨跌其实没法判断啊

322
00:13:45,669 --> 00:13:48,210
不能够说好财报股价一定涨

323
00:13:48,210 --> 00:13:50,370
坏财报股价一定跌啊

324
00:13:50,370 --> 00:13:51,870
这个这个是不一定的啊

325
00:13:51,870 --> 00:13:53,450
因为从统计上

326
00:13:53,450 --> 00:13:56,090
历史统计上所有的公司情况都都这么回事

327
00:13:56,090 --> 00:13:58,269
所以他因为有一个短期的资金博弈

328
00:13:58,269 --> 00:14:00,610
和在财报前的期权的

329
00:14:00,610 --> 00:14:03,429
比方说单边的压注期权的保护

330
00:14:03,429 --> 00:14:04,990
还有套利交易等等

331
00:14:04,990 --> 00:14:08,318
这些短期的资金决定了他那个资金怎么跑

332
00:14:08,318 --> 00:14:12,120
所以财报后的走势是一个五五开的事情

333
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,679
但是呢我这里可以说一下长远的走势

334
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:18,379
英伟达怎么比较健康长远的走势上

335
00:14:18,379 --> 00:14:20,899
英伟达由于市值太大了

336
00:14:20,899 --> 00:14:23,820
它呢需要推动的资金也比较大

337
00:14:23,820 --> 00:14:29,799
那它合适的合理的走势就是走一个慢牛走势

338
00:14:29,799 --> 00:14:30,720
慢慢的走

339
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:31,779
慢慢往上挪

340
00:14:31,779 --> 00:14:33,078
慢慢往上挪

341
00:14:33,078 --> 00:14:36,078
这是最稳妥最合适的

342
00:14:36,078 --> 00:14:37,958
另外呢从技术面上

343
00:14:37,958 --> 00:14:40,658
如果英伟达在财报之后啊

344
00:14:40,658 --> 00:14:42,950
我就是假设一下哈

345
00:14:42,950 --> 00:14:48,080
比如先小幅下跌至210一下方

346
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:48,919
财报很好

347
00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:49,539
前瞻也很好

348
00:14:49,539 --> 00:14:50,460
但仍旧下跌啊

349
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:52,370
跌到210一下方

350
00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:57,509
那么经过了筹码交换之后再去重拾涨势

351
00:14:57,509 --> 00:15:00,809
这个呢是比较好的长期走势啊

352
00:15:00,809 --> 00:15:03,169
这个我认为是比较好的长期走势

353
00:15:03,169 --> 00:15:05,129
否则如果财报比较

354
00:15:05,129 --> 00:15:07,090
比如说很好一下拉上去了

355
00:15:07,090 --> 00:15:08,250
涨了15块钱

356
00:15:08,250 --> 00:15:10,129
涨到了237块钱去了

357
00:15:10,129 --> 00:15:11,240
打了新高

358
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,639
那后面呢这个周线级别的超买很快就会出现

359
00:15:15,639 --> 00:15:17,169
有可能本周就会出现

360
00:15:17,169 --> 00:15:19,110
再加上市值又这么大

361
00:15:19,110 --> 00:15:21,029
你后面一旦成交量不足

362
00:15:21,029 --> 00:15:22,210
买盘跟不上

363
00:15:22,210 --> 00:15:23,779
还要往上慢慢挪

364
00:15:23,779 --> 00:15:26,779
那就变成了超买加顶背离

365
00:15:26,779 --> 00:15:28,700
那下跌就只是时间问题嘛

366
00:15:28,700 --> 00:15:30,120
所以这样就走不远

367
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:30,879
它走不稳

368
00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:32,299
你涨上去又跌下来

369
00:15:32,299 --> 00:15:33,600
横在这里没有意义吗

370
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,000
你不如先交换一下筹码对吧

371
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,659
还有很多朋友之前犹豫的没有上车的是吧

372
00:15:38,659 --> 00:15:41,830
回去之后就是上车的机会啊

373
00:15:41,830 --> 00:15:44,029
上车的机会210一下方啊

374
00:15:44,029 --> 00:15:45,870
就是新的上车机会

375
00:15:45,870 --> 00:15:48,269
当然要比之前的175到200之间

376
00:15:48,269 --> 00:15:49,830
你要贵十块钱到20块钱了

377
00:15:49,830 --> 00:15:50,590
这个没办法啊

378
00:15:50,590 --> 00:15:53,120
这个地方已经给了大半年时间

379
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,279
足够的时间调整

380
00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:55,399
让大家上车了啊

381
00:15:55,399 --> 00:15:56,720
大家如果没有的话

382
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,009
那只能付出一点点的高溢价

383
00:15:59,009 --> 00:16:00,250
但从长期来看

384
00:16:00,250 --> 00:16:01,049
210一下方

385
00:16:01,049 --> 00:16:01,970
比如说210块

386
00:16:01,970 --> 00:16:02,649
207块

387
00:16:02,649 --> 00:16:03,450
205块

388
00:16:03,450 --> 00:16:04,370
高不高呢

389
00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:06,000
仍旧不高啊

390
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:07,159
首先给大家看一下

391
00:16:07,159 --> 00:16:09,509
这是我们在上一次财报之后

392
00:16:09,509 --> 00:16:10,750
这个财报没披露啊

393
00:16:10,750 --> 00:16:13,090
这是上一次财报之后的前瞻估值的情况

394
00:16:13,090 --> 00:16:15,590
预计本次会有提升啊

395
00:16:15,590 --> 00:16:16,830
我比较确定这件事情

396
00:16:16,830 --> 00:16:19,149
因为我看到了大量的上调

397
00:16:19,149 --> 00:16:21,849
但是我没有在现在这里就给大家上调

398
00:16:21,849 --> 00:16:24,609
是因为后面呢我想拿到更准呃

399
00:16:24,609 --> 00:16:25,328
精确的数据

400
00:16:25,328 --> 00:16:26,409
看财报之后

401
00:16:26,409 --> 00:16:29,568
所以预计这个前瞻估值都有提升

402
00:16:29,568 --> 00:16:33,369
那么由于他的下个财年马上就是本财年截止月

403
00:16:33,369 --> 00:16:34,980
是在27年的1月份

404
00:16:34,980 --> 00:16:38,440
所以基于30~40倍是200

405
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,789
34~312

406
00:16:40,789 --> 00:16:42,190
他这个价格高吗

407
00:16:42,190 --> 00:16:43,169
还低估呢

408
00:16:43,169 --> 00:16:43,809
对不对

409
00:16:43,809 --> 00:16:44,889
还低呢

410
00:16:44,889 --> 00:16:46,850
大家说那不低吧不低

411
00:16:46,850 --> 00:16:47,970
我们等会对比一下AMD

412
00:16:47,970 --> 00:16:49,370
你就知道低还是不低了

413
00:16:49,370 --> 00:16:50,649
本财年234

414
00:16:50,649 --> 00:16:52,889
你要往下个财年去跑295

415
00:16:52,889 --> 00:16:54,100
那更低了

416
00:16:54,100 --> 00:16:55,299
增速多少呢

417
00:16:55,299 --> 00:16:56,360
是不是很拉胯呢

418
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:57,740
不拉跨对吧

419
00:16:57,740 --> 00:16:58,779
今年是比较快的

420
00:16:58,779 --> 00:17:00,299
明年开始降速啊

421
00:17:00,299 --> 00:17:01,340
这个我们之前已经讲过了

422
00:17:01,340 --> 00:17:02,899
这个增速降速是肯定的

423
00:17:02,899 --> 00:17:04,250
因为基数越来越大啊

424
00:17:04,250 --> 00:17:05,250
基数大了以后

425
00:17:05,250 --> 00:17:07,569
你不可能永远保持一个超级高的增长

426
00:17:07,569 --> 00:17:09,098
这个都是EPS增长啊

427
00:17:09,098 --> 00:17:12,298
这是这是这是所有公司发展的最终路径

428
00:17:12,298 --> 00:17:13,159
是一样的

429
00:17:15,730 --> 00:17:16,750
还算是可以

430
00:17:16,750 --> 00:17:17,970
是不是好

431
00:17:17,970 --> 00:17:19,569
那为什么说它不贵

432
00:17:19,569 --> 00:17:20,829
大家记住这两个值啊

433
00:17:20,829 --> 00:17:24,250
234312295和394对比市价

434
00:17:24,250 --> 00:17:26,049
我们先不看20倍啊

435
00:17:26,049 --> 00:17:27,569
我们因为现在的增速比较快嘛

436
00:17:27,569 --> 00:17:29,170
能够跑到七八十%

437
00:17:29,170 --> 00:17:29,809
二三十%

438
00:17:29,809 --> 00:17:31,670
我们给予30倍最少

439
00:17:31,670 --> 00:17:35,630
然后你看MDMD的情况

440
00:17:35,630 --> 00:17:37,969
我今天给大家做了一个全新的更新

441
00:17:37,969 --> 00:17:41,048
大家可以看一下他当前财年截止到12月份

442
00:17:41,048 --> 00:17:42,848
它实际上就是那个27年1月份

443
00:17:42,848 --> 00:17:43,969
英伟达财年是同样的

444
00:17:43,969 --> 00:17:45,199
中间就隔了一个月

445
00:17:45,199 --> 00:17:46,959
他的下限是210

446
00:17:46,959 --> 00:17:47,979
上限280

447
00:17:47,979 --> 00:17:49,798
它市价多少420

448
00:17:49,798 --> 00:17:51,159
27年前量是多少

449
00:17:51,159 --> 00:17:53,359
329~439

450
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,140
它的中位是384

451
00:17:55,140 --> 00:17:59,609
这个价格已经快到了27年12月的上限了

452
00:17:59,609 --> 00:18:03,069
所以它的增速呢今年和英伟达差不多

453
00:18:03,069 --> 00:18:04,670
明年比英伟达要快得多啊

454
00:18:04,670 --> 00:18:05,910
5年也要快一些

455
00:18:05,910 --> 00:18:07,980
所以你说它有一些溢价合理

456
00:18:07,980 --> 00:18:11,909
但是是不是这个溢价能够超出一年半呢

457
00:18:11,909 --> 00:18:13,469
这个大家自己思考啊

458
00:18:13,469 --> 00:18:16,189
我只是把这两只股票做一个横向的对比

459
00:18:16,189 --> 00:18:17,420
同样的条件

460
00:18:17,420 --> 00:18:18,420
同样的情呃

461
00:18:18,420 --> 00:18:20,420
在增速也拿出来对比的情况下

462
00:18:20,420 --> 00:18:24,190
很明显在现阶段这个市价的背景下

463
00:18:24,190 --> 00:18:27,589
英伟达其实更加的具有性价比

464
00:18:27,589 --> 00:18:30,549
缺点是它呢市值太大了

465
00:18:30,549 --> 00:18:33,900
那么炒作起来投机性不太好炒

466
00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:35,420
无非就这个特点啊

467
00:18:35,420 --> 00:18:37,740
无非这个缺点不像AMD

468
00:18:37,740 --> 00:18:39,619
AMD的市值才6000多亿

469
00:18:39,619 --> 00:18:42,019
他要是能翻到5万亿市值

470
00:18:42,019 --> 00:18:42,779
打个比方

471
00:18:42,779 --> 00:18:45,460
那他的这个可炒作空间就更大

472
00:18:45,460 --> 00:18:45,859
是不是

473
00:18:45,859 --> 00:18:49,210
所以市场呢其实为什么AMD的价格高

474
00:18:49,210 --> 00:18:51,390
英伟达的这个从价值来讲

475
00:18:51,390 --> 00:18:52,470
现在它价格低

476
00:18:52,470 --> 00:18:53,269
就这个原因

477
00:18:53,269 --> 00:18:55,309
就这个就这一点点的区别

478
00:18:55,309 --> 00:18:56,230
其他的没有

479
00:18:56,230 --> 00:19:00,410
所以你愿不愿意继续为MD付出更高的溢价

480
00:19:00,410 --> 00:19:03,400
买到29年二八年对吧

481
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:04,720
这是你自己考虑的问题啊

482
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:05,200
这个的

483
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,880
就我们就每个人的这个风险偏好不一样嘛

484
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,388
我这里只是用数据来进行这个这个对比啊

485
00:19:11,388 --> 00:19:13,548
好所以这里就是我一直在讲

486
00:19:13,548 --> 00:19:13,949
英伟达

487
00:19:13,949 --> 00:19:15,189
在现在当前

488
00:19:15,189 --> 00:19:17,680
今天2026年5月18号的情况下

489
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,039
它的性价比英伟达更好

490
00:19:20,039 --> 00:19:21,859
但缺点是市值太大

491
00:19:21,859 --> 00:19:23,700
走的会比较慢

492
00:19:23,819 --> 00:19:27,220
好额这个呢是两个对比

493
00:19:27,220 --> 00:19:30,650
然后AMD的技术面也给大家更新一下

494
00:19:31,009 --> 00:19:33,650
400~420这个地方啊

495
00:19:33,650 --> 00:19:35,190
这是最近的中等支撑

496
00:19:35,190 --> 00:19:36,869
跌穿之后下方没有支撑

497
00:19:36,869 --> 00:19:37,890
直接是366

498
00:19:37,890 --> 00:19:39,990
往下400啊

499
00:19:39,990 --> 00:19:40,789
大家自己注意啊

500
00:19:40,789 --> 00:19:41,990
因为现在还差了20块钱

501
00:19:41,990 --> 00:19:43,809
还有五个点左右还挺多的

502
00:19:43,809 --> 00:19:45,960
他跟费半其实很像

503
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:46,819
没有破位

504
00:19:46,819 --> 00:19:49,440
那他仍旧能够重拾涨势啊

505
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:50,930
继续大家往上去炒

506
00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:51,869
这个没有问题

507
00:19:51,869 --> 00:19:53,450
但是跌破之后你想再炒

508
00:19:53,450 --> 00:19:55,730
那就基本上暂时希望就不大了

509
00:19:55,730 --> 00:19:58,609
就要去走一个更合理的均值回归啊

510
00:19:58,609 --> 00:20:00,150
均值回归走到360以下

511
00:20:00,150 --> 00:20:02,170
那就走到了差不多

512
00:20:02,170 --> 00:20:04,009
再往下一个财年的中位以下

513
00:20:04,009 --> 00:20:05,730
那相对来讲就合理的多了嘛

514
00:20:05,730 --> 00:20:06,569
就没那么贵了

515
00:20:06,569 --> 00:20:08,509
对吧好

516
00:20:08,509 --> 00:20:09,769
这是这两个股票

517
00:20:09,769 --> 00:20:14,920
然后呢我再讲一下额英伟达的看法

518
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:16,138
我的持仓啊

519
00:20:16,138 --> 00:20:19,298
呃由于英伟达呢是属于不贵的股票

520
00:20:19,298 --> 00:20:21,219
加上它的涨幅没那么多啊

521
00:20:21,219 --> 00:20:24,109
目前呢是处于一个追赶者的角色

522
00:20:24,109 --> 00:20:27,500
资金呢未来会从高地流向洼地

523
00:20:27,500 --> 00:20:29,259
所以我的判断是

524
00:20:29,259 --> 00:20:33,259
英伟达呢就算半导体整体继续走回撤

525
00:20:33,259 --> 00:20:35,980
它的回撤幅度也不会太大

526
00:20:35,980 --> 00:20:40,359
所以呢这支股票我暂时没有任何的减仓的想法

527
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,680
因为它的前端估值还离得很远啊

528
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,759
起码要跑到300以上再说啊

529
00:20:44,759 --> 00:20:46,839
现在没有任何的减仓的想法

530
00:20:46,839 --> 00:20:50,259
这个价格即便财报之后跌到211的下方

531
00:20:50,259 --> 00:20:52,309
我仍旧可以接受啊

532
00:20:52,309 --> 00:20:54,470
上方这个236不是它的高点

533
00:20:54,470 --> 00:20:54,750
好吧

534
00:20:54,750 --> 00:20:56,859
这是我对于英伟达的判断

535
00:20:57,259 --> 00:20:58,220
好额

536
00:20:58,220 --> 00:21:01,619
然后呢我们来讲一下马斯克的这个特斯拉

537
00:21:01,619 --> 00:21:03,180
顺带说一下啊

538
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:05,440
呃

539
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,779
马斯克呢是确认在OpenAI的这个诉讼中败诉了呃

540
00:21:09,779 --> 00:21:14,539
由九个人组成的联邦陪审团是支持了OpenAI

541
00:21:14,539 --> 00:21:16,309
奥特曼和微软的诉求

542
00:21:16,309 --> 00:21:20,710
裁定马斯克提起的诉讼已经超过诉讼时效

543
00:21:20,710 --> 00:21:23,420
驳回了他的指控呃

544
00:21:23,420 --> 00:21:24,539
陪审团一致认定呢

545
00:21:24,539 --> 00:21:25,859
马斯克在数年前

546
00:21:25,859 --> 00:21:28,680
可能最早在2019年到2021年

547
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:33,099
就应该或理应知道OpenAI转向盈利模式

548
00:21:33,099 --> 00:21:35,190
以及与微软的重大合作

549
00:21:35,190 --> 00:21:39,109
所以呢他在2024年8月才提交这个申请

550
00:21:39,109 --> 00:21:41,079
已经过了时效

551
00:21:41,079 --> 00:21:42,480
OpenAI表示说呢

552
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,559
马斯克选择在2023年

553
00:21:44,559 --> 00:21:48,940
推出其竞争的XAI项目之后才提起诉讼

554
00:21:48,940 --> 00:21:51,660
他的动机是处于竞争

555
00:21:51,660 --> 00:21:54,660
而非真正的关心OpenAI的使命

556
00:21:54,660 --> 00:21:59,339
法官接受了陪审团关于这一关键问题的裁决

557
00:21:59,339 --> 00:22:00,980
所以驳回了此案

558
00:22:00,980 --> 00:22:03,160
那么这个案件就结束了

559
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,869
OpenAI那边呢也可以继续它的商业化的进程

560
00:22:06,869 --> 00:22:11,029
然后呢OpenAI也可以继续的这个去融资续命啊

561
00:22:11,029 --> 00:22:12,789
不然的话这个后面不好搞啊

562
00:22:12,789 --> 00:22:15,138
这个甲骨文是瑟瑟发抖对吧

563
00:22:15,138 --> 00:22:17,298
所以现在的情况呢对微软来讲

564
00:22:17,298 --> 00:22:19,398
那肯定是原来的这个股权投资

565
00:22:19,398 --> 00:22:20,578
如果将来有上市

566
00:22:20,578 --> 00:22:23,398
那么一天他的那个100多亿的投资

567
00:22:23,398 --> 00:22:26,479
股权会变成大概2000多亿啊

568
00:22:26,479 --> 00:22:27,719
有可能会变成2000多亿

569
00:22:27,719 --> 00:22:29,029
那可能会翻个十几倍

570
00:22:29,029 --> 00:22:30,150
但是对于他来讲

571
00:22:30,150 --> 00:22:30,670
微软来讲

572
00:22:30,670 --> 00:22:32,470
这个这个这种股权投资

573
00:22:32,470 --> 00:22:34,740
这个收益占到的也不大啊

574
00:22:34,740 --> 00:22:36,099
就是个象征性意义

575
00:22:36,099 --> 00:22:37,960
但至少呢这个好的预期没有落空

576
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,779
所以对微软不算利空

577
00:22:39,779 --> 00:22:41,819
那么对甲骨文来讲

578
00:22:41,819 --> 00:22:43,819
目前呢这个情况出现之后

579
00:22:43,819 --> 00:22:45,400
他呢也不算利空

580
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:46,740
而且说甲骨文为什么跌啊

581
00:22:46,740 --> 00:22:49,440
因为甲甲骨文他资产负债表还在那摆着呀

582
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,079
只是说给他续上了对吧

583
00:22:51,079 --> 00:22:52,799
续上了没有让他更加糟糕了

584
00:22:52,799 --> 00:22:54,720
如果今天是OpenAI赢了

585
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,829
甲骨文不可能只跌三个点的啊

586
00:22:56,829 --> 00:22:58,470
甲格连甲骨文可能得七八个点

587
00:22:58,470 --> 00:22:59,829
上十个点的跌幅了

588
00:22:59,829 --> 00:23:02,049
他的情况我们上周给大家展示过一次啊

589
00:23:02,049 --> 00:23:03,390
支撑压力都比较密集

590
00:23:03,390 --> 00:23:04,630
就是一点点的蹭吧

591
00:23:04,630 --> 00:23:05,910
没办法一点点的蹭啊

592
00:23:05,910 --> 00:23:07,210
下方支撑力度也比较强

593
00:23:07,210 --> 00:23:08,579
上方压力也比较大

594
00:23:08,579 --> 00:23:11,779
当然无非就是要每一次等到结账对吧

595
00:23:11,779 --> 00:23:12,880
有钱现金进账

596
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,759
对方支付支付款项

597
00:23:14,759 --> 00:23:17,220
特别是到了明年应该是个大年吧

598
00:23:17,220 --> 00:23:18,159
今年还少

599
00:23:18,159 --> 00:23:18,999
那他慢慢的

600
00:23:18,999 --> 00:23:21,759
可能大家就对于资产负债表的担心就降下来了

601
00:23:21,759 --> 00:23:22,519
这个热度啊

602
00:23:22,519 --> 00:23:25,819
所以甲骨文他今天算是软件里走的比较弱的

603
00:23:25,819 --> 00:23:28,670
最主要是因为它的资产负债表实在太差了

604
00:23:28,670 --> 00:23:30,109
现在实在是高风险啊

605
00:23:30,109 --> 00:23:33,009
这个和其他的这些相对来讲

606
00:23:33,009 --> 00:23:35,849
只是因为受到AI对行业冲击来讲

607
00:23:35,849 --> 00:23:40,839
他要背负的这个这个重担要重一些啊

608
00:23:40,839 --> 00:23:42,680
所以他的判断我我上次讲过啊

609
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,480
我对它的走势我现在判断不了啊

610
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:45,119
没有什么判断

611
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,079
大家觉得我说我能不能能不能买

612
00:23:47,079 --> 00:23:47,700
能不能卖

613
00:23:47,700 --> 00:23:48,460
我判断不了

614
00:23:48,460 --> 00:23:48,960
老实讲

615
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,049
因为他的资产负债表关系太复杂了

616
00:23:52,049 --> 00:23:53,190
好额

617
00:23:53,190 --> 00:23:56,569
然后刚才好像特斯拉没讲完是吧

618
00:23:57,089 --> 00:23:59,380
呃特斯拉这边的情况呢是呃

619
00:23:59,380 --> 00:24:02,059
今天回撤到200日均中等支撑位置啊

620
00:24:02,059 --> 00:24:04,180
这是一个中性横盘位置啊

621
00:24:04,180 --> 00:24:05,799
中性横盘位置呃

622
00:24:05,799 --> 00:24:08,039
基本上呢就是这一波上去没突破啊

623
00:24:08,039 --> 00:24:08,769
突破失败

624
00:24:08,769 --> 00:24:09,769
然后往下呢

625
00:24:09,769 --> 00:24:10,809
现在回到中性位置

626
00:24:10,809 --> 00:24:11,890
再跌破380呢

627
00:24:11,890 --> 00:24:12,609
又往下走了

628
00:24:12,609 --> 00:24:13,369
要去下野了

629
00:24:13,369 --> 00:24:14,950
但现在是中性支撑啊

630
00:24:14,950 --> 00:24:16,349
只是一个横盘位置

631
00:24:16,349 --> 00:24:17,750
没有什么大的方向

632
00:24:17,750 --> 00:24:19,230
就是多啊空啊

633
00:24:19,230 --> 00:24:20,809
看不到现在好

634
00:24:20,809 --> 00:24:23,890
所以呢继续等待space ex的出清的消息吧

635
00:24:23,890 --> 00:24:26,549
啊有可能这个星期会发招股说明书

636
00:24:26,549 --> 00:24:27,569
很有可能啊

637
00:24:27,569 --> 00:24:29,910
只能说那也有可能拖到下个星期啊

638
00:24:29,910 --> 00:24:30,589
如果有的话

639
00:24:30,589 --> 00:24:35,130
我们再看一下招股说明书的一些详细的状况好

640
00:24:35,130 --> 00:24:38,470
然后我再讲一下好久没讲的BRK

641
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:42,680
额博格尔哈撒韦的情况

642
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,759
额给大家更新一下它的估值啊

643
00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:46,279
这个估值现在没有变

644
00:24:46,279 --> 00:24:47,599
虽然是上次8号更新的

645
00:24:47,599 --> 00:24:48,869
但到今天也没变

646
00:24:48,869 --> 00:24:51,069
26年前瞻是394~65

647
00:24:51,069 --> 00:24:51,289
四

648
00:24:51,289 --> 00:24:54,130
27年是415~687呃

649
00:24:54,130 --> 00:24:56,009
488价格呢是合理

650
00:24:56,009 --> 00:24:57,000
中位偏低

651
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,440
之前最低呢跌到过464啊

652
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,699
是比较接近前瞻估值下限很近了

653
00:25:01,699 --> 00:25:03,058
464是什么意思呢

654
00:25:03,058 --> 00:25:04,019
就在这个地方啊

655
00:25:04,019 --> 00:25:05,979
这个地方我记得我以前讲它的时候

656
00:25:05,979 --> 00:25:08,739
给大家标注过这个支撑位置啊

657
00:25:08,739 --> 00:25:10,480
450~468

658
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,579
这是一个比较关键的一个上下的一个中枢位置

659
00:25:14,579 --> 00:25:16,700
跌破之后它会有一个下方的震荡

660
00:25:16,700 --> 00:25:17,660
比较低的震荡

661
00:25:17,660 --> 00:25:19,700
不跌破呢又是一个高位震荡啊

662
00:25:19,700 --> 00:25:22,619
目前的情况就是在这个区间和上方的500

663
00:25:22,619 --> 00:25:24,059
510这个区间啊

664
00:25:24,059 --> 00:25:25,220
在这个区间来回震荡

665
00:25:25,220 --> 00:25:28,269
510突破之后会走一个右侧看新高啊

666
00:25:28,269 --> 00:25:31,089
510突破之后会走一个右侧看新高

667
00:25:31,089 --> 00:25:33,029
但能不能过不清楚啊

668
00:25:33,029 --> 00:25:35,970
因为现在它整体的局面比较弱

669
00:25:35,970 --> 00:25:36,809
基本面比较弱

670
00:25:36,809 --> 00:25:38,329
你大家可以看一下它的增速

671
00:25:38,329 --> 00:25:41,089
26年是几乎不增长负127年五

672
00:25:41,089 --> 00:25:41,730
未来5年

673
00:25:41,730 --> 00:25:43,480
目前资产负债表调整

674
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,160
手上还持有大量的现金

675
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,220
如果有一些现金调整投资的话

676
00:25:47,220 --> 00:25:49,160
他可能会有大的业绩变化

677
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,529
但现在没有更多消息啊

678
00:25:51,529 --> 00:25:54,809
好所以这是它的技术面给大家展示一下

679
00:25:55,250 --> 00:25:56,309
再给大家讲一下

680
00:25:56,309 --> 00:25:59,329
他不是清仓了这个UNH吗

681
00:25:59,329 --> 00:26:01,170
在最新的13F报告中

682
00:26:01,170 --> 00:26:03,009
把UNH也带一下

683
00:26:05,579 --> 00:26:07,339
uh呢我们上次讲的时候啊

684
00:26:07,339 --> 00:26:08,420
他是突破这个地方

685
00:26:08,420 --> 00:26:09,160
记得吗

686
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,660
突破314之后已经是止跌了啊

687
00:26:11,660 --> 00:26:12,819
当时我们这里都标注过啊

688
00:26:12,819 --> 00:26:14,349
给大家也讲过展示过

689
00:26:14,349 --> 00:26:16,470
然后呢一个位置一个位置的爬

690
00:26:16,470 --> 00:26:17,450
他爬的还比较快

691
00:26:17,450 --> 00:26:18,410
大家看到没有

692
00:26:18,410 --> 00:26:19,170
这个地方

693
00:26:19,170 --> 00:26:20,940
直接他后来也跳过去了

694
00:26:20,940 --> 00:26:21,859
呃神奇吧

695
00:26:21,859 --> 00:26:22,900
这个财报之后看到没有

696
00:26:22,900 --> 00:26:23,700
我们这不也讲过吗

697
00:26:23,700 --> 00:26:24,539
说过吗对吧

698
00:26:24,539 --> 00:26:25,859
跳过了这个强支撑

699
00:26:25,859 --> 00:26:28,480
那后面就是一个什么缓慢爬行的过程

700
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,109
缓慢怎么爬呢

701
00:26:30,109 --> 00:26:32,269
他呢需要一个压力

702
00:26:32,269 --> 00:26:34,230
一个压力的吃啊

703
00:26:34,230 --> 00:26:35,950
一个压力一个压力的吃

704
00:26:35,950 --> 00:26:37,750
上方吃的好的话

705
00:26:37,750 --> 00:26:40,069
能吃到接近440块

706
00:26:40,069 --> 00:26:44,109
前提是不要再出什么医保利空的幺蛾子了

707
00:26:44,109 --> 00:26:47,049
他就可以慢慢爬到接近440块

708
00:26:47,049 --> 00:26:48,710
但是需要时间

709
00:26:48,710 --> 00:26:51,069
他最快的简单的路已经走完了

710
00:26:51,069 --> 00:26:53,619
它比较简单的路就这两档嘛

711
00:26:53,619 --> 00:26:55,140
这里跳上去一个对吧

712
00:26:55,140 --> 00:26:55,720
只跌了

713
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,259
然后这个地方有个强压力

714
00:26:57,259 --> 00:26:58,420
一个财报把他跳过去了

715
00:26:58,420 --> 00:27:00,160
这个最难难的两档过去了

716
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,880
然后这个地方不难慢慢走

717
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,769
就这一段就处于开始慢慢的爬

718
00:27:04,769 --> 00:27:05,929
要震荡了啊

719
00:27:05,929 --> 00:27:06,568
要开始了

720
00:27:06,568 --> 00:27:08,069
所以uh这个情况就是

721
00:27:08,069 --> 00:27:10,390
你慢慢的希望不要政策出利空吧

722
00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:13,309
其他的技术面走势就要爬到这里

723
00:27:13,309 --> 00:27:15,970
但是一口气想过这里比较难啊

724
00:27:15,970 --> 00:27:16,710
比较难

725
00:27:16,710 --> 00:27:18,289
老老实讲有点难啊

726
00:27:18,289 --> 00:27:18,690
非常难

727
00:27:18,690 --> 00:27:20,170
应该讲440~496

728
00:27:20,170 --> 00:27:20,690
非常非常难

729
00:27:20,690 --> 00:27:24,819
这是一个嗯重度套牢盘区域啊

730
00:27:24,819 --> 00:27:26,259
在这里我给他原来画过

731
00:27:26,259 --> 00:27:26,759
记得吗

732
00:27:26,759 --> 00:27:27,779
跌破的位置啊

733
00:27:28,819 --> 00:27:30,940
这是我们在原来讲台的时候跌破的位置

734
00:27:30,940 --> 00:27:32,339
这是一个重度套牢盘

735
00:27:32,339 --> 00:27:33,730
被套了

736
00:27:33,730 --> 00:27:37,809
从22年开始套到了25年三年的套牢盘啊

737
00:27:37,809 --> 00:27:38,849
这是一个重度套牢盘

738
00:27:38,849 --> 00:27:39,690
当时跌穿之后

739
00:27:39,690 --> 00:27:40,829
我们就说危险吧

740
00:27:40,829 --> 00:27:42,789
现在呢同样要反弹到这个位置

741
00:27:42,789 --> 00:27:44,829
想要一次性过去难对吧

742
00:27:44,829 --> 00:27:48,009
但是过去之后那就是大好前程对吧

743
00:27:48,009 --> 00:27:49,130
那就看新高了呗

744
00:27:49,130 --> 00:27:51,130
所以UH慢一点吧

745
00:27:51,130 --> 00:27:52,130
大家也不用着急了

746
00:27:52,130 --> 00:27:53,799
只要政策上不再出利空

747
00:27:53,799 --> 00:27:57,039
慢慢的一年一年的靠保险再赚回来

748
00:27:57,039 --> 00:27:59,609
然后呢一年一年的把业绩再追上去

749
00:27:59,609 --> 00:28:02,170
回到前高呢无非就是时间的问题啊

750
00:28:02,170 --> 00:28:03,349
非常花时间

751
00:28:03,349 --> 00:28:05,930
当然前提是医保不要彻底改革对吧

752
00:28:05,930 --> 00:28:09,609
未来不要改成那种完全让他们无利可图的

753
00:28:09,609 --> 00:28:11,210
那我估计也不太可能啊

754
00:28:11,210 --> 00:28:13,230
那不然的话你没有商业化运营

755
00:28:13,230 --> 00:28:14,750
那那些医保谁来做呢

756
00:28:14,750 --> 00:28:16,430
国家又完全负担不起对吧

757
00:28:16,430 --> 00:28:17,490
不可能全拿出来

758
00:28:17,490 --> 00:28:20,690
所以还是需要私人公司来一起来做这个事情

759
00:28:20,690 --> 00:28:21,250
好吧

760
00:28:21,250 --> 00:28:22,210
所以这是uh啊

761
00:28:22,210 --> 00:28:24,799
也跟大家讲一讲好

762
00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:26,279
其他的呢今天就不多说了啊

763
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:28,279
今天哦还有一个情况给大家讲一下

764
00:28:28,279 --> 00:28:30,039
今天有一个CCTA的更新啊

765
00:28:30,039 --> 00:28:31,440
给大家还是稍微更一下吧

766
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:32,849
位置有变化

767
00:28:32,849 --> 00:28:35,130
现在横盘呢是卖的很少

768
00:28:35,130 --> 00:28:37,309
极小上涨卖的极小

769
00:28:37,309 --> 00:28:39,450
下跌卖的暂时也极小

770
00:28:39,450 --> 00:28:42,009
但是跌破位置发生了变化

771
00:28:42,009 --> 00:28:44,430
跌破位置已经提升到7000年以上了

772
00:28:44,430 --> 00:28:48,009
7090 570957095

773
00:28:48,009 --> 00:28:49,429
跌破会加速啊

774
00:28:49,429 --> 00:28:51,548
下跌7095681呃

775
00:28:51,548 --> 00:28:53,429
6891和6511啊

776
00:28:53,429 --> 00:28:56,009
CCTA目前呢是大量的多头持仓

777
00:28:56,009 --> 00:28:58,089
持仓的仓位应该是

778
00:28:58,089 --> 00:29:00,679
每股持仓应该是接近八成了吧

779
00:29:00,679 --> 00:29:02,239
接近了八成持仓了

780
00:29:02,239 --> 00:29:04,798
所以他们现在想要买呢是买不动了啊

781
00:29:04,798 --> 00:29:05,959
杠杆都也都用上了

782
00:29:05,959 --> 00:29:06,479
买不动了

783
00:29:06,479 --> 00:29:08,259
那就指望别大跌

784
00:29:08,259 --> 00:29:10,359
大跌的话他们就又开始卖了啊

785
00:29:10,359 --> 00:29:11,319
现在小跌还好

786
00:29:11,319 --> 00:29:13,039
小跌就卖一点点

787
00:29:13,039 --> 00:29:13,759
7095

788
00:29:13,759 --> 00:29:14,799
接下来还有400点呢

789
00:29:14,799 --> 00:29:15,599
还早对吧

790
00:29:15,599 --> 00:29:18,000
所以市场别一天跨崩下去

791
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:18,640
掉下去就行

792
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:19,699
那就踩踏了

793
00:29:19,699 --> 00:29:21,239
那那应该还好啊

794
00:29:21,239 --> 00:29:23,419
七你看7095到现在有多少点

795
00:29:23,419 --> 00:29:24,789
我给大家测一下啊

796
00:29:24,789 --> 00:29:27,410
7095这里跌到7000点吧

797
00:29:27,410 --> 00:29:30,029
额五个点对吧

798
00:29:30,029 --> 00:29:31,029
五个点不到

799
00:29:31,029 --> 00:29:31,710
往上的话

800
00:29:31,710 --> 00:29:33,680
70954个点啊

801
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,200
大盘大盘下挫

802
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,420
在今天的位置往下下挫4.5以上

803
00:29:37,420 --> 00:29:39,279
那他就要开始砸盘了啊

804
00:29:39,279 --> 00:29:40,559
这就是CCTA的特性

805
00:29:40,559 --> 00:29:42,118
没办法好

806
00:29:42,118 --> 00:29:44,419
这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

807
00:29:44,419 --> 00:29:47,358
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

808
00:29:47,358 --> 00:29:50,680
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发啊

809
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:51,519
谢谢大家

810
00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:52,480
新的一周又开始了

811
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,539
希望大家多多帮忙点点赞啊

812
00:29:54,539 --> 00:29:56,380
给鼓鼓劲儿好呃

813
00:29:56,380 --> 00:29:57,579
那我们今天节目到这

814
00:29:57,579 --> 00:30:00,759
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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