【Financial Education】耐克跌穿底线？我今天狂砸$7.2万抄底这四只股票！

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今天我在四只股票上花了七万两千美元

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发布在我的X账号页面

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让所有人都在猜测

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我买了哪些股票呢

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今天我在烤架上放了些松饼

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我要分享这四只股票

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这就是我买入这四只股票的原因

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哦它们现在这么不受待见吗

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天啊

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这四只股票真的被讨厌吗

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好的

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我们今天在这视频里详细分析

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首先直接说

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好的

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接下来我要回应这个

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耐克有催化剂驱动

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未来六到十二个月

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期待分析这个

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期待回应这个

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2026年可能是基本面强劲但情绪低迷的一年

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啊

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这很有意思

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好的

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感谢大家加入

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我直接切入正题

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在开始前需要你们做的是

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免费点个赞

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如果还没这样做的话

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请立刻行动

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对于已经点过赞的观众

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我由衷感谢

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你是老粉

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你一直支持到这里

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我真的很感激

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另外请订阅频道

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我们现在有十三万多订阅者

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这个数字很大

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感谢大家

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哦差点忘了说

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四月还有九小时五

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六分钟

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愚人

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别全卖了千倍股

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公司

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这是常规会员半价

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无论是月付还是两年

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完整软件套件

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我用来做投资决策

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这就是下方的提示评论

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你们在视频中看到的

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这笔交易已经结束了

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非常抱歉

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已经结束了

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嗯，或许我给黑色买一个吧

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周五或者什么时间

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嗯，或许以更高价格

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我们看看再说

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但就是这样

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千x产品短期内不会有促销

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所以你们能在前九小时内看到这个视频

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已经上线了

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赶紧抓住机会

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好的

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好的

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今天我买了哪些股票

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嗯

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我买的四只股票

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还有啊

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这些都很讨厌

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确实如此

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今天我提前行动了

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并买入了G蛋糕工厂

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这里55美元

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蛋糕是这些中最不被讨厌的

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顺便说一下

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最不被讨厌的

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嗯

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蛋糕从70左右高位下跌

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跌到55左右

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现在的位置

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肯定被砸了

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但蛋糕没被重创

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相比接下来要讲的其他股票

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原因是蛋糕股估值低

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未来几年有强劲增长

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因为花童和北意大利及扩张计划

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但该股交易价偏低

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很难大幅打压蛋糕股价

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除非业绩彻底崩盘

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不过

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他们的业绩非常稳定

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无论经济如何

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展望未来

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股票市盈率13倍

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这些其他股票更偏向成长型

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容易被大幅波动，蛋糕公司不是这样

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蛋糕前景非常看好

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让我展示蛋糕股的预测

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我还不确定是否展示过

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我的蛋糕股预测

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我们正在查看thousand x stocks dot com，这里是我的蛋糕预测

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让我们加载起来

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这就是我对蛋糕的基本假设

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7%的营收增长率

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没什么夸张的

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9%的净利润增长率

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净利润率为

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假设高四到二十三十左右

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二十五到三十

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我认为这个市盈率适合能持续增长的公司

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单位数营收增长

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净利润接近两位数增长

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稳定的公司分红者

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估值在十八到二十

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三百分比哈格那里对吧

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如果我的基准情况实现二三到二

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八百分比哈格那里对蛋糕

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我确实非常看好蛋糕

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好的

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嗯

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接下来要分析的股票是我买入的

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哦这是艾尔夫美容吗

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今天我买入了200股艾尔夫美容

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每股63.30美元

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我为艾尔夫货架支付了

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让我们回到搜索功能这里

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让我展示艾尔夫的现状

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好的

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这只股票变得很便宜了

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艾尔夫以前是两百多美元的股票

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艾尔夫已经下跌了

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大约70%

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甚至超过70%

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从历史高点来看，股价现在跌至十八二年

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四倍十三

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艾尔夫是一家成长型公司

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年增长两位数

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这样的公司按当前前向市盈率

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四倍或四倍市盈率完全不合理

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在我看来

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简直荒谬

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我认为未来一年后

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更不用说几年后

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我们会回过头说

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记得艾尔夫当时交易在十八四十倍市盈率

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对

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这完全不合理

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你不会

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你不会

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成长型股票应有两位数增长

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但市场中也有少数这样的股票

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呃，见鬼了

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Meta就是这类股票的典型例子

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大象和...

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Meta就是Meta

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不惜投入巨额资金

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这些成本需要在未来几年摊销

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这会拖累每股收益

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而Elf不需要这样做

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所以Elf将会脱颖而出

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这正好符合我们的预期

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营收端

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未来数年的利润端

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而该股票的交易价格

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而这样的交易价简直荒谬

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我今天买入的下一只股票是Celsius

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这又是另一只热门股吗

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这只股票曾触及每股近100美元的历史高点

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今天这只股票每股35美元

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所以我买入了100股Celsius

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这只股票同样被低估

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价格低得离谱

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所有这些股票都被严重低估

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所以关于Celsius需要注意

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四倍市盈率或四倍市销率

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这显然基于某些假设

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基于分析师平均估值

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所以可能更高或更低

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诸如此类

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但这能大致反映公司未来走向

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Celsius的四倍估值

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这也是两位数增长公司

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没错

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比如

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这类公司不应以2-4倍估值交易

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四倍市盈率或市销率

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10倍、15倍等才合理，尤其是两位数增长公司

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没错

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Celsius未来数年将持续两位数增长

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无论经济如何

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无论经济好坏

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动荡不定

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没错

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这也是严重被低估的股票

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价格太低

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今天我的大额买入就在这里

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哦，国王

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讨厌的Nike

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我买入了1000股Nike

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这就是我们说的大手笔买入

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这就是一种正当的信念

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哇哦哦哦

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四十

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一天赚五万美元

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女士们先生们

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这简直是我尖叫了

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这只股票是个荒唐的交易

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这交易太惊人了

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它甚至在持续下跌

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但这不是股票首次跌至低位

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简直震住了我

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我能列出长长一串例子

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Meta在2022年跌至88美元

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两年前我根本想不到

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好的

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150美元这太疯狂了

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或许会跌到88美元

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Palantir在何时跌至5美元

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2022年跌至98美分

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没错

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这简直疯狂

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我当时花了六美元

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就在这年前后

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我说啊

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我可以给你列举多年被重挫的股票

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跌至荒谬价位

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我还记得Shopify在2022年跌至2.5美元

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没错有时股票会跌到离谱价位

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这就是我对耐克的看法

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现在

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我简直

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这纯粹是愚蠢的

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比如

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我不知道该

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耐克44美元的价格

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这并不意味着不会跌到30

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没错

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我明白会有这样的人

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呃

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这不一样

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呃

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和Meta的情况一模一样

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Meta的人说要以40美元买入

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哦

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00:07:08,709 --> 00:07:09,470
现在88美元

246
00:07:09,470 --> 00:07:11,139
要跌到40美元

247
00:07:11,139 --> 00:07:13,220
我买当天就发了视频

248
00:07:13,220 --> 00:07:14,889
我买了多少

249
00:07:14,889 --> 00:07:17,730
我估计一天买了7万或8万美元的Meta

250
00:07:17,730 --> 00:07:20,319
当时股价还不到100美元

251
00:07:20,319 --> 00:07:22,500
我记得有很多关于

252
00:07:22,500 --> 00:07:23,279
哦，元宇宙

253
00:07:23,279 --> 00:07:24,839
你知道这不会是这样的

254
00:07:24,839 --> 00:07:25,420
完成了

255
00:07:25,420 --> 00:07:26,100
已经结束了

256
00:07:26,100 --> 00:07:26,620
脸书

257
00:07:26,620 --> 00:07:28,048
 blah blah blah 对吧

258
00:07:28,048 --> 00:07:29,348
几年后

259
00:07:29,348 --> 00:07:31,829
元宇宙股价七百五十美元一股

260
00:07:31,829 --> 00:07:32,348
没错

261
00:07:32,348 --> 00:07:33,928
也听过关于帕兰提尔的同样说法

262
00:07:33,928 --> 00:07:34,048
哦

263
00:07:34,048 --> 00:07:35,810
这是死钱股票

264
00:07:35,810 --> 00:07:36,110
它

265
00:07:36,110 --> 00:07:37,689
它只是个笑话股票

266
00:07:37,689 --> 00:07:38,670
对吧嗯

267
00:07:38,670 --> 00:07:40,300
也听过关于沙发的同样事

268
00:07:40,300 --> 00:07:42,139
甚至去年也听过关于AMD的

269
00:07:42,139 --> 00:07:43,019
我全输给了英伟达

270
00:07:43,019 --> 00:07:43,860
AMD被打爆了

271
00:07:43,860 --> 00:07:44,480
英伟达的

272
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:45,000
呃

273
00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:46,860
从解放日以来的回报率对吧

274
00:07:46,860 --> 00:07:48,819
但解放日期间人们只是在谈论

275
00:07:48,819 --> 00:07:49,470
哦不

276
00:07:49,470 --> 00:07:49,870
你知道的

277
00:07:49,870 --> 00:07:50,870
AMD落后了

278
00:07:50,870 --> 00:07:52,230
 blah blah blah 对吧

279
00:07:52,230 --> 00:07:53,569
我经常听到这些事

280
00:07:53,569 --> 00:07:54,350
嘿

281
00:07:54,350 --> 00:07:55,810
也许人们关于耐克是对的

282
00:07:55,810 --> 00:07:58,410
也许耐克再也回不来了

283
00:07:58,410 --> 00:07:59,990
它再也不会是好股票了

284
00:07:59,990 --> 00:08:01,470
再也不会到一百五十美元

285
00:08:01,470 --> 00:08:02,589
两百美元的股票了

286
00:08:02,589 --> 00:08:02,990
对吧

287
00:08:02,990 --> 00:08:04,339
这是可能的

288
00:08:04,339 --> 00:08:05,899
我愿意承担这个风险

289
00:08:05,899 --> 00:08:07,019
我觉得我没错

290
00:08:07,019 --> 00:08:08,399
我觉得我在耐克上是对的

291
00:08:08,399 --> 00:08:09,879
时间会证明一切对吧

292
00:08:09,879 --> 00:08:11,379
我们两年后见

293
00:08:11,379 --> 00:08:12,339
三个月后见

294
00:08:12,339 --> 00:08:13,540
八个月后见对吧

295
00:08:13,540 --> 00:08:14,740
最终见分晓谁对

296
00:08:14,740 --> 00:08:16,339
我觉得我在耐克上是对的

297
00:08:16,339 --> 00:08:17,839
而且

298
00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,040
我今天不会投入四万五千美元在那股票里

299
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,290
如果我对方向没十足把握

300
00:08:25,290 --> 00:08:26,610
这家公司未来走向对吧

301
00:08:26,610 --> 00:08:29,029
所以我昨晚听了场电话会议

302
00:08:29,029 --> 00:08:31,459
我详细查看了所有数据

303
00:08:31,459 --> 00:08:35,059
我觉得转型已经明显开始了

304
00:08:35,059 --> 00:08:35,840
当我查看数据时

305
00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:36,860
当我看这些数字时

306
00:08:36,860 --> 00:08:38,980
很明显转型已在那家公司启动

307
00:08:38,980 --> 00:08:39,720
嗯

308
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,720
我看到接下来一年还会持续加速

309
00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:43,580
在未来几年里

310
00:08:44,298 --> 00:08:45,239
而我

311
00:08:45,239 --> 00:08:46,219
我不会失眠

312
00:08:46,219 --> 00:08:47,019
持有耐克股票

313
00:08:47,019 --> 00:08:47,578
所以你知道的

314
00:08:47,578 --> 00:08:48,278
随便啦

315
00:08:48,278 --> 00:08:50,538
我非常清楚

316
00:08:50,538 --> 00:08:51,600
我可能错了

317
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:56,340
我不觉得错，所以会在袜子上犯错

318
00:08:56,340 --> 00:08:57,899
有时候我会搞错

319
00:08:57,899 --> 00:08:59,659
我不觉得错在耐克

320
00:08:59,659 --> 00:09:02,279
我们拭目以待

321
00:09:02,279 --> 00:09:02,820
嗯

322
00:09:02,820 --> 00:09:03,980
关于这一点

323
00:09:03,980 --> 00:09:10,070
有些人现在把它比作PayPal

324
00:09:10,070 --> 00:09:10,809
这很常见

325
00:09:10,809 --> 00:09:11,490
哦耐克的

326
00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:11,789
你知道的

327
00:09:11,789 --> 00:09:13,139
PayPal 2.0

328
00:09:13,139 --> 00:09:13,899
这很公平

329
00:09:13,899 --> 00:09:14,700
比如我们

330
00:09:14,700 --> 00:09:15,580
我们可以讨论这个

331
00:09:15,580 --> 00:09:17,840
但我要反驳这一点

332
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:19,220
耐克就是下一个

333
00:09:19,220 --> 00:09:19,659
PayPal

334
00:09:19,659 --> 00:09:21,009
PayPal 2.0对吧

335
00:09:21,009 --> 00:09:21,850
死钱股票

336
00:09:21,850 --> 00:09:22,970
你投入一大笔钱

337
00:09:22,970 --> 00:09:24,389
看起来像好公司

338
00:09:24,389 --> 00:09:26,610
但不对

339
00:09:27,419 --> 00:09:35,710
区别在于PayPal必须与苹果和谷歌的支付产品正面竞争

340
00:09:35,710 --> 00:09:38,730
这些竞争对手极其难对付

341
00:09:38,730 --> 00:09:43,529
因为这些公司掌控了生态系统，而PayPal仍赚得盆满钵满

342
00:09:43,529 --> 00:09:45,980
他们仍在竞争中表现良好

343
00:09:45,980 --> 00:09:47,320
但我们必须承认

344
00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:48,440
房间里的大象

345
00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,940
苹果和谷歌是难对付的对手

346
00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:51,600
好吧

347
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,409
耐克要和谁竞争

348
00:09:54,570 --> 00:09:55,570
继续

349
00:09:55,570 --> 00:09:56,169
哦

350
00:09:56,169 --> 00:09:58,349
等等

351
00:09:59,589 --> 00:09:59,908
呃

352
00:09:59,908 --> 00:10:00,528
美洲狮

353
00:10:00,528 --> 00:10:01,229
呃

354
00:10:01,229 --> 00:10:01,788
露露

355
00:10:01,788 --> 00:10:02,509
太差了

356
00:10:02,509 --> 00:10:03,690
呃

357
00:10:04,090 --> 00:10:06,740
维奥里或土豆

358
00:10:07,419 --> 00:10:08,500
这只是一个玩笑

359
00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:09,840
这只是一个玩笑

360
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,240
这里没有竞争

361
00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,139
从来就没有竞争

362
00:10:13,139 --> 00:10:14,600
这些公司都没有品牌

363
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:15,320
耐克有

364
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,059
他们都不愿投资公司

365
00:10:17,059 --> 00:10:17,379
就像这样

366
00:10:17,379 --> 00:10:18,919
耐克愿意投资他们

367
00:10:18,919 --> 00:10:21,850
他们没人能快速创新

368
00:10:21,850 --> 00:10:23,120
现在耐克

369
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,820
跑步是耐克多年来的弱点

370
00:10:26,820 --> 00:10:27,740
跑步撕裂

371
00:10:27,740 --> 00:10:28,480
他们只是提到

372
00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:29,519
他们上个季度增长了

373
00:10:29,519 --> 00:10:30,750
百分之二十

374
00:10:30,750 --> 00:10:32,490
跑步增长百分之二十

375
00:10:32,490 --> 00:10:37,529
跑步业务重回耐克，是其核心品类之一

376
00:10:37,529 --> 00:10:40,289
他们正在清理所有旧库存

377
00:10:40,289 --> 00:10:40,929
兄弟

378
00:10:40,929 --> 00:10:42,049
你不想和他们竞争

379
00:10:42,049 --> 00:10:45,169
我说实话啊，别和这家公司竞争

380
00:10:45,169 --> 00:10:48,279
过去四五年他们一直领先

381
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:49,759
他们总能成功

382
00:10:49,759 --> 00:10:52,120
他们任命了埃利奥特·希尔担任CEO

383
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,970
他们几十年来

384
00:10:55,970 --> 00:10:57,830
屡次证明

385
00:10:57,830 --> 00:11:00,019
竞争对手此起彼伏

386
00:11:00,019 --> 00:11:01,340
品牌热度飙升

387
00:11:01,340 --> 00:11:03,679
有时高有时低

388
00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,840
我完全不担心

389
00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:06,539
可能错了

390
00:11:06,539 --> 00:11:07,019
我有

391
00:11:07,019 --> 00:11:08,919
关于耐克，我肯定

392
00:11:08,919 --> 00:11:10,360
你知道十五二或四

393
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:10,480
P

394
00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:11,960
我认为实际更低

395
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:12,679
我认为人们

396
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,139
我认为耐克将在未来几年盈利惊人

397
00:11:16,139 --> 00:11:16,820
对于这家公司

398
00:11:16,820 --> 00:11:17,370
没错

399
00:11:17,370 --> 00:11:18,870
所以我押上筹码

400
00:11:18,870 --> 00:11:19,929
这就是你要做的

401
00:11:19,929 --> 00:11:20,490
你明白的

402
00:11:20,490 --> 00:11:22,129
你得把筹码放到桌面上

403
00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:23,889
这就是股市里该做的事

404
00:11:23,889 --> 00:11:25,059
而我愿意这么做

405
00:11:25,059 --> 00:11:27,019
我们现在要回应这些视频

406
00:11:27,019 --> 00:11:28,720
但你知道当你有坚定信念时

407
00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,019
和那些有 proven track record 的优质公司

408
00:11:31,019 --> 00:11:32,710
尤其是优秀的管理团队

409
00:11:32,710 --> 00:11:33,750
卓越的商业模式

410
00:11:34,950 --> 00:11:36,529
有时候你必须

411
00:11:36,529 --> 00:11:39,730
你得把筹码放到桌面上

412
00:11:39,730 --> 00:11:43,129
对了你还要时刻关注竞争

413
00:11:43,129 --> 00:11:48,970
但和苹果、谷歌竞争与

414
00:11:48,970 --> 00:11:49,769
你知道的

415
00:11:49,769 --> 00:11:52,450
那个时代的热门品牌

416
00:11:52,450 --> 00:11:53,549
因为它们都会跌落

417
00:11:53,549 --> 00:11:57,500
你可以看看耐克成立后的五十年

418
00:11:57,500 --> 00:12:00,799
不断有品牌来挑战耐克

419
00:12:00,799 --> 00:12:04,399
我真的建议大家研究这个看看

420
00:12:04,399 --> 00:12:05,679
我觉得我确实听了

421
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,120
你现在以相同价格获得耐克

422
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,820
你现在获得的是十二年前的耐克

423
00:12:09,820 --> 00:12:11,740
十二年前

424
00:12:11,940 --> 00:12:15,529
我觉得少花点时间争论

425
00:12:15,529 --> 00:12:17,490
耐克是否值得投资

426
00:12:17,490 --> 00:12:24,539
或者发表意见并深入研究过去四五年

427
00:12:24,539 --> 00:12:30,730
那些来来去去挑战耐克的品牌

428
00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:32,610
当时正是热门事物

429
00:12:32,610 --> 00:12:33,190
哦天啊

430
00:12:33,190 --> 00:12:33,830
你知道的

431
00:12:33,830 --> 00:12:35,389
迈克的数字还不够亮眼

432
00:12:35,389 --> 00:12:37,610
而另一个品牌正在崛起

433
00:12:37,610 --> 00:12:39,129
这种情况反复发生

434
00:12:39,129 --> 00:12:40,870
而我们现在又到了关键时刻

435
00:12:40,870 --> 00:12:42,659
嗯我明白了

436
00:12:42,659 --> 00:12:43,559
我看到明显转折

437
00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:44,559
所以我们会看到

438
00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:45,419
也许我会错

439
00:12:45,419 --> 00:12:46,600
两年后的时间

440
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:47,840
耐克股价仍三十美元

441
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:48,720
四十美元股价

442
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:49,279
随便吧

443
00:12:49,279 --> 00:12:50,318
五十美元股价

444
00:12:50,318 --> 00:12:52,278
我不认为会是这种情况

445
00:12:52,278 --> 00:12:54,578
我们继续回应这两个视频

446
00:12:54,578 --> 00:12:55,879
这里大幅下跌

447
00:12:55,879 --> 00:12:58,200
已下跌约10.5%

448
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:02,720
公司警告本财年销售额将下滑

449
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,000
现在连线的是纽伯格伯曼资深研究分析师

450
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:06,879
凯文·麦卡锡

451
00:13:06,879 --> 00:13:07,240
凯文

452
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:11,000
公司昨日表示，这一 turnaround 进展比市场预期的要慢

453
00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,519
他们仍在清理库存

454
00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:14,080
呃

455
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:15,200
在中国的库存

456
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:16,019
没错

457
00:13:16,019 --> 00:13:17,299
这应该说实话

458
00:13:17,299 --> 00:13:20,080
下个季度末应该基本完成

459
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:21,500
基本上就是这样

460
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:23,649
我觉得他们低估了数字

461
00:13:23,649 --> 00:13:25,769
因为现在有千头万绪的事情

462
00:13:25,769 --> 00:13:28,110
为什么要发布这么激进的指引

463
00:13:28,110 --> 00:13:30,019
发布一个低指引

464
00:13:30,019 --> 00:13:31,840
然后全年超越预期

465
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:32,320
对吧

466
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:33,320
像个家伙

467
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,019
我们不知道中东会发生什么

468
00:13:35,019 --> 00:13:35,940
还有所有这些纷争

469
00:13:35,940 --> 00:13:38,059
这些关税和各种问题

470
00:13:38,059 --> 00:13:39,019
以及所有混乱

471
00:13:39,019 --> 00:13:40,519
现在有太多事情在发生

472
00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:41,659
这是个特定时刻

473
00:13:41,659 --> 00:13:43,120
你发布一个低指引

474
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,379
然后全年大幅超越预期

475
00:13:45,379 --> 00:13:46,710
对吧，大家都会说

476
00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:47,110
好的

477
00:13:47,110 --> 00:13:47,789
哇

478
00:13:47,789 --> 00:13:48,169
耐克

479
00:13:48,169 --> 00:13:49,070
刚刚超越了季度目标

480
00:13:49,070 --> 00:13:49,570
超越了那个节点

481
00:13:49,570 --> 00:13:51,649
然后重新成为一家可靠公司

482
00:13:51,649 --> 00:13:53,299
让投资者重拾信心

483
00:13:53,299 --> 00:13:54,799
每个季度都超越预期

484
00:13:54,799 --> 00:13:55,460
就像耐克一样

485
00:13:55,460 --> 00:13:56,279
超越营收目标

486
00:13:56,279 --> 00:13:59,220
并在最新季度大幅超出每股收益

487
00:13:59,220 --> 00:14:02,809
我认为今日下跌10.5%的抛售是合理的

488
00:14:03,918 --> 00:14:04,458
早上好

489
00:14:04,458 --> 00:14:04,918
贝基

490
00:14:04,918 --> 00:14:05,399
嗯

491
00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:05,918
你知道的

492
00:14:05,918 --> 00:14:08,499
我认为正如他们所说

493
00:14:08,499 --> 00:14:09,158
多次强调

494
00:14:09,158 --> 00:14:10,909
非线性复苏过程

495
00:14:10,909 --> 00:14:15,029
这种悲观情绪传导至市场

496
00:14:15,029 --> 00:14:15,450
呃

497
00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:16,869
这是正确判断

498
00:14:16,869 --> 00:14:17,649
嗯

499
00:14:17,649 --> 00:14:18,349
你知道你

500
00:14:18,349 --> 00:14:18,828
我觉得

501
00:14:18,828 --> 00:14:23,729
需要特别指出的两点是欧洲较弱的销售表现

502
00:14:23,729 --> 00:14:25,480
中东和非洲地区

503
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,299
我们将在那里看到更多促销活动

504
00:14:27,299 --> 00:14:30,720
接下来一个到两个季度内清理库存

505
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,740
另一个导致偏差的部分

506
00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:36,879
如果说这是避险措施的话

507
00:14:36,879 --> 00:14:40,350
短期内中国市场的复苏似乎不太可能

508
00:14:40,350 --> 00:14:42,169
这将成为首要任务

509
00:14:42,169 --> 00:14:44,480
中国不会很快回暖

510
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:45,360
如果你看看

511
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:45,899
嗯

512
00:14:45,899 --> 00:14:47,139
我详细分析了数据

513
00:14:47,139 --> 00:14:47,620
好的

514
00:14:47,620 --> 00:14:48,659
让我给大家展示

515
00:14:48,659 --> 00:14:49,559
这就是你需要行动的原因

516
00:14:49,559 --> 00:14:50,460
这里的关键细节

517
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:51,120
好的

518
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:51,980
那我们开始吧

519
00:14:51,980 --> 00:14:54,720
我觉得我已发到耐克群

520
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,169
在私密群里的聊天中

521
00:14:57,169 --> 00:15:00,090
我觉得我昨晚很晚才发的

522
00:15:00,090 --> 00:15:02,740
我们看看再说

523
00:15:02,740 --> 00:15:03,299
哦对啊

524
00:15:03,299 --> 00:15:04,559
这是我昨晚躺在床上时

525
00:15:04,559 --> 00:15:06,620
请听千乘会议网站的电话会议

526
00:15:06,620 --> 00:15:07,059
如果你不知道的话

527
00:15:07,059 --> 00:15:09,539
我们有千乘的财报电话会议

528
00:15:09,539 --> 00:15:12,089
嗯嗯嗯嗯嗯

529
00:15:12,089 --> 00:15:15,769
谈到耐克股价上涨20%

530
00:15:17,159 --> 00:15:18,179
还有另一部分

531
00:15:18,179 --> 00:15:20,039
我想展示

532
00:15:20,808 --> 00:15:23,849
我到底在哪里发过这条消息

533
00:15:23,849 --> 00:15:25,408
我是在哪里发布的

534
00:15:25,408 --> 00:15:26,149
让我们看看

535
00:15:26,149 --> 00:15:28,028
也许我当天早些时候发的

536
00:15:28,028 --> 00:15:31,379
在耐克聊天室里

537
00:15:33,179 --> 00:15:35,019
我知道我发过这里

538
00:15:35,789 --> 00:15:37,230
这里有损益表

539
00:15:37,230 --> 00:15:37,710
好的

540
00:15:37,710 --> 00:15:40,090
对就在这里提到中国

541
00:15:40,090 --> 00:15:43,320
就整体业务而言

542
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:44,600
这是九个月的数据

543
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:45,639
同比下降11%

544
00:15:45,639 --> 00:15:47,879
但最新季度下降7%

545
00:15:47,879 --> 00:15:51,200
这显示业务正在显著改善

546
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,279
如果九个月数据降11%

547
00:15:53,279 --> 00:15:56,470
而三个月仅降7%

548
00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:57,990
显然在取得进展

549
00:15:57,990 --> 00:15:58,830
如果情况相反

550
00:15:58,830 --> 00:15:59,889
那将是重大利空

551
00:15:59,889 --> 00:16:00,230
对

552
00:16:00,230 --> 00:16:01,490
看看中国鞋类市场

553
00:16:01,490 --> 00:16:03,090
这是他们遥遥领先的主要业务板块

554
00:16:03,090 --> 00:16:03,769
没错

555
00:16:03,769 --> 00:16:07,309
从九个月前下滑13%的情况

556
00:16:07,309 --> 00:16:09,590
但三个月内仅下滑7%

557
00:16:09,590 --> 00:16:11,729
再次说明

558
00:16:11,729 --> 00:16:12,989
这向你展示了什么

559
00:16:12,989 --> 00:16:14,509
数据正在告诉你

560
00:16:14,509 --> 00:16:17,220
北美市场正在回暖

561
00:16:17,220 --> 00:16:20,480
我们已看到鞋类是他们的最大业务板块

562
00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:21,539
这才是关键所在

563
00:16:21,539 --> 00:16:22,299
真正展现增长

564
00:16:22,299 --> 00:16:23,360
如果你是耐克的话

565
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,769
这是他们在任何市场最大的业务

566
00:16:25,769 --> 00:16:26,549
嗯

567
00:16:26,549 --> 00:16:28,009
九个月周期增长五个月

568
00:16:28,009 --> 00:16:29,330
或九个月周期增长5%

569
00:16:29,330 --> 00:16:29,610
没错

570
00:16:29,610 --> 00:16:31,330
三个月周期增长6%

571
00:16:31,330 --> 00:16:33,629
形势正在向正确方向发展

572
00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:35,539
是的

573
00:16:35,539 --> 00:16:36,340
你正在看到证据

574
00:16:36,340 --> 00:16:36,980
在我看来

575
00:16:36,980 --> 00:16:39,379
未来一年左右的下行压力

576
00:16:39,379 --> 00:16:42,440
但利润率将在之前恢复

577
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:43,769
现在

578
00:16:43,769 --> 00:16:44,750
话说回来

579
00:16:44,750 --> 00:16:48,049
目前股价在54.8美元下方

580
00:16:48,049 --> 00:16:49,590
今早左右

581
00:16:49,590 --> 00:16:50,090
嗯

582
00:16:50,090 --> 00:16:51,730
我确实怀疑

583
00:16:51,730 --> 00:16:56,120
今早关于耐克的讨论及未来六个月

584
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,419
将变得更加积极

585
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,279
这意味着这是理想入场点

586
00:17:03,279 --> 00:17:06,240
如果你有耐心的话，也就是

587
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,039
不妨再观察片刻

588
00:17:08,039 --> 00:17:10,519
耐克不是短线交易的股票

589
00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:11,710
就像苹果一样

590
00:17:11,710 --> 00:17:13,509
就像苹果这类股票

591
00:17:13,509 --> 00:17:14,868
你买入它

592
00:17:14,868 --> 00:17:16,548
长期持有

593
00:17:16,548 --> 00:17:19,250
没错，我多年见过苹果股价

594
00:17:19,250 --> 00:17:20,170
它曾经历

595
00:17:20,170 --> 00:17:20,609
多个阶段

596
00:17:20,609 --> 00:17:21,970
持续一年的下跌趋势

597
00:17:21,970 --> 00:17:22,630
两年时间

598
00:17:22,630 --> 00:17:23,730
长期盘整

599
00:17:23,730 --> 00:17:26,269
所有人都对公司失去信心，等等

600
00:17:26,269 --> 00:17:27,480
而你不会

601
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:27,880
你知道吗

602
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:28,539
只有少数

603
00:17:28,539 --> 00:17:33,119
在整个股市中只有少数几家公司可以长期持有

604
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:34,980
买入它们的股票即使市场崩盘

605
00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:36,400
无论你买入多少

606
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:37,859
长期持有

607
00:17:37,859 --> 00:17:38,680
耐克就是这样的股票

608
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:39,599
不要交易这只股票

609
00:17:39,599 --> 00:17:40,940
长期持有

610
00:17:40,940 --> 00:17:42,759
好吧

611
00:17:42,759 --> 00:17:44,599
我觉得这个嗯

612
00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:49,460
你知道接下来六到十二个月催化剂丰富

613
00:17:49,460 --> 00:17:51,740
嗯所以你知道

614
00:17:51,740 --> 00:17:56,180
投资者对这次 turnaround 的态度变得有些漠不关心

615
00:17:56,180 --> 00:17:57,460
直到现在

616
00:17:57,460 --> 00:17:58,119
嗯

617
00:17:58,119 --> 00:17:59,039
此时此刻

618
00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:02,619
不过我们正面临财政赤字二七

619
00:18:02,619 --> 00:18:03,240
呃

620
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,670
二六年的完全衰退

621
00:18:06,670 --> 00:18:10,150
这仍然是一个以改善利润率为核心的 turnaround 故事

622
00:18:10,150 --> 00:18:14,009
接下来六个月你将覆盖约两亿美元的关税库存清理和耐克重启成本

623
00:18:14,009 --> 00:18:19,329
嗯

624
00:18:19,329 --> 00:18:20,009
然后到2027年春季将看到真正的拐点

625
00:18:20,009 --> 00:18:24,890
随着完整的产品线

626
00:18:24,890 --> 00:18:27,309
嗯运动进攻产品系列

627
00:18:27,309 --> 00:18:29,710
嗯运动进攻产品

628
00:18:29,710 --> 00:18:33,549
所以回答你的问题是否现在就是时机

629
00:18:33,549 --> 00:18:34,930
或者你知道的

630
00:18:34,930 --> 00:18:36,410
在未来几个月

631
00:18:36,410 --> 00:18:41,970
我认为这将成为投资者更热门的股票

632
00:18:41,970 --> 00:18:43,400
对于投资者而言

633
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,460
中国市场曾是大问题

634
00:18:45,460 --> 00:18:46,420
正如你所指出的

635
00:18:46,420 --> 00:18:49,839
我认为他们最近一个季度销售额下降了7%

636
00:18:49,839 --> 00:18:51,819
那么为什么不等待呢

637
00:18:51,819 --> 00:18:52,700
看看他的股票

638
00:18:52,700 --> 00:18:53,180
耐克说

639
00:18:53,180 --> 00:18:56,140
为什么不等到百分百

640
00:18:56,140 --> 00:18:57,220
验证 turnaround 成效

641
00:18:57,220 --> 00:18:58,440
我们有很多数据

642
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,420
像这样的展示数据

643
00:19:00,420 --> 00:19:01,599
这就是转折点

644
00:19:01,599 --> 00:19:05,559
但并非所有方面都完美如耐克

645
00:19:05,559 --> 00:19:06,079
你说

646
00:19:06,079 --> 00:19:07,880
等到一切都完美

647
00:19:08,019 --> 00:19:09,859
你认为耐克会涨到40美元一股

648
00:19:09,859 --> 00:19:12,140
当耐克再次完美时

649
00:19:12,140 --> 00:19:14,599
当然不会这是股市的运作方式

650
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:16,119
任何在市场中待过一段时间的人都知道

651
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,619
知道就在那里附近

652
00:19:17,619 --> 00:19:19,539
当一切变得完美或出色时

653
00:19:19,539 --> 00:19:21,380
再次在耐克全线产品中

654
00:19:21,380 --> 00:19:23,980
股价可能在九十到一百一十美元一股

655
00:19:23,980 --> 00:19:25,909
甚至可能达到一百二十美元一股

656
00:19:25,909 --> 00:19:28,368
那时股价不会再是四十美元了对吧

657
00:19:28,368 --> 00:19:30,568
所以你知道这就是为什么不能像

658
00:19:30,568 --> 00:19:33,299
等到像你必须得像

659
00:19:33,299 --> 00:19:34,359
将碎片拼合起来

660
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,539
然后发现绝佳机会获利

661
00:19:36,539 --> 00:19:38,099
所以我想这也有好的一面

662
00:19:38,099 --> 00:19:41,470
比第二季度面临的更糟

663
00:19:41,470 --> 00:19:46,309
财政第二季度下滑了十七%

664
00:19:46,589 --> 00:19:48,470
中国的问题出在哪里

665
00:19:48,470 --> 00:19:50,829
有没有办法解决

666
00:19:51,150 --> 00:19:51,769
是的

667
00:19:51,769 --> 00:19:54,069
你知道情况会先恶化再好转

668
00:19:54,069 --> 00:19:56,240
他们需要减少库存

669
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,500
中国遵循快速时尚周期

670
00:19:59,500 --> 00:20:02,150
那里竞争异常激烈

671
00:20:02,150 --> 00:20:09,339
本地公司能更好地适应这种环境

672
00:20:09,339 --> 00:20:12,619
这种快速时尚周期

673
00:20:12,619 --> 00:20:15,720
你将看到结构性调整

674
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:21,039
这将持续影响营收直到明年春季

675
00:20:21,039 --> 00:20:23,289
利润率会在之前见底

676
00:20:23,289 --> 00:20:23,910
嗯

677
00:20:23,910 --> 00:20:24,250
你知道的

678
00:20:24,250 --> 00:20:25,990
我不认为这个品牌

679
00:20:25,990 --> 00:20:27,049
嗯是

680
00:20:27,049 --> 00:20:28,809
嗯本身

681
00:20:28,809 --> 00:20:29,329
嗯

682
00:20:29,329 --> 00:20:31,170
是否更弱了

683
00:20:31,170 --> 00:20:32,750
只是竞争更激烈

684
00:20:32,750 --> 00:20:33,470
他们需要

685
00:20:33,470 --> 00:20:35,150
需要重新定位产品

686
00:20:35,150 --> 00:20:37,809
竞争始终存在

687
00:20:37,809 --> 00:20:39,369
凯文和是的

688
00:20:39,369 --> 00:20:43,670
世界级CEO会如何不同决策

689
00:20:43,670 --> 00:20:47,869
几年前股价一百七十美元时

690
00:20:47,869 --> 00:20:53,109
当时的CEO做了什么

691
00:20:53,109 --> 00:20:54,250
主要问题是什么

692
00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:56,650
是否有人能改变这种局面

693
00:20:56,650 --> 00:20:58,680
这是我见过最糟糕的图表

694
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,460
如果我当时以一百七十买入

695
00:21:01,460 --> 00:21:03,640
如果你长期持有或持有债券

696
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:04,809
我说人们

697
00:21:05,009 --> 00:21:07,309
你知道任何人都可能亏损

698
00:21:07,309 --> 00:21:07,930
你确实

699
00:21:07,930 --> 00:21:08,210
你知道的

700
00:21:08,210 --> 00:21:09,670
可以押注体育赛事之类的

701
00:21:09,670 --> 00:21:10,210
相信我

702
00:21:10,210 --> 00:21:12,710
但ceo会怎么做呢

703
00:21:12,710 --> 00:21:14,460
你说没有品牌损害

704
00:21:14,460 --> 00:21:14,940
你

705
00:21:14,940 --> 00:21:16,400
你不觉得这是品牌损害

706
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,019
耐克发生了什么

707
00:21:18,019 --> 00:21:18,859
他们哪里做错了

708
00:21:18,859 --> 00:21:20,549
他们本可以怎么做不同

709
00:21:20,549 --> 00:21:22,430
他们疏远了前线员工

710
00:21:22,430 --> 00:21:23,529
我认为他们现在在

711
00:21:23,529 --> 00:21:24,490
他们现在正在

712
00:21:24,490 --> 00:21:25,990
与埃利奥特·希尔重新建立联系

713
00:21:25,990 --> 00:21:27,069
整个零售合作伙伴

714
00:21:27,069 --> 00:21:29,650
这些都是前线销售人员

715
00:21:29,650 --> 00:21:30,289
嗯

716
00:21:30,289 --> 00:21:32,390
我觉得这是一个干净的

717
00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:33,740
非常清晰的

718
00:21:33,740 --> 00:21:34,380
你知道的

719
00:21:34,380 --> 00:21:35,819
那里有一个明确的事项

720
00:21:35,819 --> 00:21:37,700
他们还会做的是

721
00:21:37,700 --> 00:21:42,490
减少对传统生活方式品牌的依赖

722
00:21:42,490 --> 00:21:48,509
传统生活方式品牌可能占了超过50%的份额

723
00:21:48,509 --> 00:21:51,339
而时尚潮流来去匆匆

724
00:21:51,339 --> 00:21:51,779
他们

725
00:21:51,779 --> 00:21:53,740
他们需要继续推动

726
00:21:53,740 --> 00:21:57,599
以运动员为中心、以运动为核心的创新

727
00:21:57,599 --> 00:21:59,480
而埃利奥特·希尔现在正在这样做

728
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:00,789
回答你的问题

729
00:22:00,789 --> 00:22:05,490
我现在要做的两件事是重新激活

730
00:22:05,490 --> 00:22:06,599
我的合作伙伴

731
00:22:06,599 --> 00:22:06,940
嗯

732
00:22:06,940 --> 00:22:08,799
批发合作伙伴啊

733
00:22:08,799 --> 00:22:09,700
并推动创新

734
00:22:09,700 --> 00:22:12,220
现在我们看到的是性能领域的创新

735
00:22:12,220 --> 00:22:14,619
在跑步和足球领域

736
00:22:14,619 --> 00:22:18,660
嗯，未来会更广泛

737
00:22:18,660 --> 00:22:20,579
别忘了服装

738
00:22:20,579 --> 00:22:21,029
对

739
00:22:21,029 --> 00:22:23,049
服装也是他们重点布局的

740
00:22:23,049 --> 00:22:23,529
他们

741
00:22:23,529 --> 00:22:27,179
即将推出扩展的Skin系列

742
00:22:27,179 --> 00:22:29,979
嗯，还有其他催化剂即将到来

743
00:22:29,979 --> 00:22:31,818
投资者日即将到来

744
00:22:31,818 --> 00:22:33,259
世界杯

745
00:22:33,259 --> 00:22:33,699
你知道的

746
00:22:33,699 --> 00:22:35,138
这可能带来一些公关效应

747
00:22:35,138 --> 00:22:35,779
对

748
00:22:35,779 --> 00:22:37,660
但你确实会看到

749
00:22:37,660 --> 00:22:40,140
正在显现多层创新

750
00:22:40,140 --> 00:22:40,880
嗯

751
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,029
进入比赛状态

752
00:22:42,029 --> 00:22:43,910
嗯，你知道的

753
00:22:43,910 --> 00:22:45,890
演出仍将持续

754
00:22:45,890 --> 00:22:47,670
演出正在展开

755
00:22:47,670 --> 00:22:50,309
生活方式需要时间

756
00:22:50,509 --> 00:22:53,410
所以你知道要收尾耐克那边对吧

757
00:22:53,410 --> 00:22:53,950
是的

758
00:22:53,950 --> 00:22:54,349
我的意思是

759
00:22:54,349 --> 00:22:57,289
一切都在正确方向发展

760
00:22:57,289 --> 00:22:58,130
一切都在朝着正确方向

761
00:22:58,130 --> 00:22:59,109
我想亲眼看看

762
00:22:59,109 --> 00:23:01,910
而对耐克来说始终

763
00:23:01,910 --> 00:23:03,789
你必须先专注于跑步

764
00:23:03,789 --> 00:23:04,109
没错

765
00:23:04,109 --> 00:23:05,849
耐克最初是一家跑鞋公司

766
00:23:05,849 --> 00:23:10,069
所以前任CEO失去的是跑步业务

767
00:23:10,069 --> 00:23:13,480
公司就像正在进入和hoa阶段

768
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,900
必须保持与零售商的紧密合作

769
00:23:15,900 --> 00:23:18,740
像Foot Locker和Dick's Sporting Goods这样的公司

770
00:23:18,740 --> 00:23:21,829
这些公司至关重要

771
00:23:21,829 --> 00:23:23,789
人们仍然会去这些商店购物

772
00:23:23,789 --> 00:23:24,869
并非所有人都

773
00:23:24,869 --> 00:23:26,150
只在网上和亚马逊购物

774
00:23:26,150 --> 00:23:27,130
等等对吧

775
00:23:27,130 --> 00:23:29,230
你也需要在亚马逊有存在感

776
00:23:29,230 --> 00:23:32,170
他们修复了这些关系

777
00:23:32,170 --> 00:23:34,349
这让他们重回正轨

778
00:23:34,349 --> 00:23:35,509
重新夺回货架空间

779
00:23:35,509 --> 00:23:36,309
以及其他相关事宜

780
00:23:36,309 --> 00:23:38,730
所以从方向上看

781
00:23:38,730 --> 00:23:39,450
一切都在往正确方向

782
00:23:39,450 --> 00:23:40,089
我希望它继续

783
00:23:40,089 --> 00:23:41,730
所以我们拭目以待

784
00:23:41,730 --> 00:23:44,190
也许股价会永远保持四十美元

785
00:23:44,190 --> 00:23:45,869
也许今天是股价低点

786
00:23:45,869 --> 00:23:47,009
可能跌到三十美元

787
00:23:47,009 --> 00:23:47,990
我不知道全部

788
00:23:47,990 --> 00:23:48,609
我知道的是

789
00:23:48,609 --> 00:23:51,190
我对耐克的长期未来非常有信心

790
00:23:51,190 --> 00:23:53,019
我认为这将是一个巨大的盈利来源

791
00:23:53,019 --> 00:23:55,220
几年后回看时我们会感叹

792
00:23:55,220 --> 00:23:58,390
如果耐克抓住这次机会

793
00:23:58,390 --> 00:23:59,950
如果耐克处理得当

794
00:23:59,950 --> 00:24:01,329
他的项目真的成功

795
00:24:01,329 --> 00:24:04,740
你永远看不到股价下跌

796
00:24:04,740 --> 00:24:08,180
我的意思是我的整个屏幕突然卡住了

797
00:24:08,180 --> 00:24:09,009
发生了什么

798
00:24:09,009 --> 00:24:09,369
哦

799
00:24:09,369 --> 00:24:10,369
好了你

800
00:24:10,369 --> 00:24:12,269
你再也看不到股价下跌了

801
00:24:12,269 --> 00:24:12,930
或者如果你这么做

802
00:24:12,930 --> 00:24:14,569
可能要等到十年二十年后

803
00:24:14,569 --> 00:24:15,719
如果他们处理得当

804
00:24:15,719 --> 00:24:17,638
并恢复收入趋势和利润率

805
00:24:17,638 --> 00:24:20,239
试图在所有市场中恢复盈利趋势的增长

806
00:24:20,239 --> 00:24:22,579
它再也回不到四十美元了

807
00:24:22,579 --> 00:24:23,980
所以早已消失不见

808
00:24:23,980 --> 00:24:26,519
然后你知道可能再等十二年

809
00:24:26,519 --> 00:24:28,059
或许能以四十美元买回

810
00:24:28,059 --> 00:24:29,700
也许十五年或二十年后

811
00:24:29,700 --> 00:24:30,539
随便吧

812
00:24:30,539 --> 00:24:30,900
好的

813
00:24:30,900 --> 00:24:31,420
接下来这个

814
00:24:31,420 --> 00:24:35,519
2026年可能是个基本面强劲但情绪悲观的一年

815
00:24:35,519 --> 00:24:37,700
而更广泛的市场则是迷糊熊猫

816
00:24:37,700 --> 00:24:41,599
她是摩根资产管理的全球市场策略师

817
00:24:41,599 --> 00:24:46,500
阿米拉现在很难判断该怎么做股票

818
00:24:46,500 --> 00:24:49,319
这三个指数在季度表现都很糟糕

819
00:24:49,319 --> 00:24:50,640
它们在本季度下跌了三到

820
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:51,579
六到七个百分点

821
00:24:51,579 --> 00:24:53,640
季度跌幅达1%

822
00:24:53,910 --> 00:24:55,210
还有这些头条新闻

823
00:24:55,210 --> 00:24:57,750
中东传出的头条风险

824
00:24:57,750 --> 00:24:59,690
如何区分中东局势的影响

825
00:24:59,690 --> 00:25:00,909
全球性担忧

826
00:25:00,909 --> 00:25:05,170
当前股市基本面面临的潜在威胁

827
00:25:05,170 --> 00:25:07,309
市场目前存在两大主要问题

828
00:25:07,309 --> 00:25:07,910
现在

829
00:25:07,910 --> 00:25:11,450
一是情绪与基本面的紧张关系

830
00:25:11,450 --> 00:25:13,990
我认为这种情况将持续整年

831
00:25:13,990 --> 00:25:15,690
因为战前就已经存在

832
00:25:15,690 --> 00:25:19,269
如今市场情绪对新闻极为敏感

833
00:25:19,269 --> 00:25:22,460
若观察经济基本面

834
00:25:22,460 --> 00:25:23,900
若发生战争

835
00:25:23,900 --> 00:25:25,480
不会影响盈利预期

836
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,559
标普500的盈利预期从年初的15%

837
00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:31,759
升至现在的17%

838
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:34,079
正值财报季前夕

839
00:25:34,079 --> 00:25:39,309
最终看来盈利可能比前两年更强

840
00:25:39,309 --> 00:25:41,410
当时我们实现了两位数盈利增长

841
00:25:41,410 --> 00:25:44,740
企业给出的指引依然积极

842
00:25:44,740 --> 00:25:46,680
即使部分指引被修正

843
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:47,900
由于这些挑战

844
00:25:47,900 --> 00:25:51,219
能源价格上涨和投入成本增加

845
00:25:51,219 --> 00:25:55,179
仍可能迎来基本面强劲的一年

846
00:25:55,179 --> 00:25:57,720
伴随极度悲观情绪

847
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:02,789
这是否意味着某些领域股票当前被低估

848
00:26:02,789 --> 00:26:05,430
有趣的是尽管波动率指数高涨

849
00:26:05,430 --> 00:26:07,359
整体波动率居高不下

850
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,160
个股波动率甚至更高

851
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,420
当你观察到这种波动性的构成层面

852
00:26:12,420 --> 00:26:14,220
那么表面之下到底发生了什么

853
00:26:14,220 --> 00:26:16,710
它正在揭示大量不同机会

854
00:26:16,710 --> 00:26:19,750
标普指数内约有58%的股票

855
00:26:19,750 --> 00:26:22,130
跑赢了指数表现

856
00:26:22,130 --> 00:26:24,000
我知道这门槛相对较低

857
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,480
但这也是我们若今日收盘的最高占比

858
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,519
自2022年以来，甚至更早的2010年

859
00:26:30,519 --> 00:26:33,940
通常在这样的时期你会看到

860
00:26:33,940 --> 00:26:35,519
股票间的相关性上升

861
00:26:35,519 --> 00:26:36,710
因为一切都在下跌

862
00:26:36,710 --> 00:26:37,390
但此刻

863
00:26:37,390 --> 00:26:42,240
你却看到近年来相对低的相关性

864
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,980
这确实创造了个股挑选的环境

865
00:26:44,980 --> 00:26:46,759
即使在表现不佳的行业中

866
00:26:46,759 --> 00:26:49,400
金融业今年基本是最差表现的板块

867
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:50,619
但你看有42%

868
00:26:50,619 --> 00:26:54,609
该领域内股票跑赢指数

869
00:26:54,609 --> 00:26:58,519
这在个股层面确实存在潜在机会

870
00:26:58,519 --> 00:26:59,000
它们已经出来了

871
00:26:59,000 --> 00:26:59,779
哦在里面

872
00:26:59,779 --> 00:27:00,559
我是指

873
00:27:00,559 --> 00:27:01,339
有无数原因

874
00:27:01,339 --> 00:27:03,630
我热爱个股投资

875
00:27:03,630 --> 00:27:05,089
但其中一个原因是

876
00:27:05,089 --> 00:27:05,789
其实市场如何

877
00:27:05,789 --> 00:27:06,750
真的无关紧要

878
00:27:06,750 --> 00:27:09,750
个股中总会出现绝佳机会

879
00:27:09,750 --> 00:27:12,730
如果我们只看过去两年

880
00:27:12,730 --> 00:27:14,450
让我们看看过去两年

881
00:27:14,450 --> 00:27:16,650
消费类股票表现极差

882
00:27:16,650 --> 00:27:17,069
没错

883
00:27:17,069 --> 00:27:18,329
以ELF这只股票为例

884
00:27:18,329 --> 00:27:19,888
以Celsius这只股票为例

885
00:27:19,888 --> 00:27:21,429
以Nike这只股票为例

886
00:27:21,429 --> 00:27:22,608
以RH这只股票为例

887
00:27:22,608 --> 00:27:23,028
嗯

888
00:27:23,028 --> 00:27:23,409
你知道的

889
00:27:23,409 --> 00:27:23,969
RH就是其中之一

890
00:27:23,969 --> 00:27:25,128
我现在正在仔细研究

891
00:27:25,128 --> 00:27:26,128
这只股票跌至12美元

892
00:27:26,128 --> 00:27:26,489
我心想

893
00:27:26,489 --> 00:27:27,269
是否该建立头寸

894
00:27:27,269 --> 00:27:27,648
RH

895
00:27:27,648 --> 00:27:28,849
我正在考虑

896
00:27:28,849 --> 00:27:31,259
这些讨论已被彻底摧毁

897
00:27:31,259 --> 00:27:32,059
已被彻底摧毁

898
00:27:32,059 --> 00:27:33,839
实际上有一长串LOU

899
00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:35,519
我是说你需要浏览很长的列表

900
00:27:35,519 --> 00:27:36,079
没错

901
00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:38,660
与此同时，过去两年像英伟达这样的股票

902
00:27:38,660 --> 00:27:39,339
表现惊人

903
00:27:39,339 --> 00:27:41,240
像美光这样的股票也表现惊人对吧

904
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,700
这些股票在未来两年表现 phenomenal

905
00:27:45,700 --> 00:27:48,160
你可以看到消费股再次爆发

906
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:48,769
没错

907
00:27:48,769 --> 00:27:49,890
耐克和阿迪达斯

908
00:27:49,890 --> 00:27:50,930
以及所有这类公司

909
00:27:50,930 --> 00:27:53,049
所以lcs需要筛选大量这类股票

910
00:27:53,049 --> 00:27:57,809
当时你可以看到英伟达、美光开始走弱

911
00:27:57,809 --> 00:27:59,250
没错，突然间

912
00:27:59,250 --> 00:28:03,259
也许我们高估了这些股票

913
00:28:03,259 --> 00:28:03,900
就像

914
00:28:03,900 --> 00:28:04,380
你知道的

915
00:28:04,380 --> 00:28:05,880
在2022年出现回调

916
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,359
2023年人们提前一两年定价

917
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,480
没错，与此同时这些消费者

918
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,500
此时业绩可能非常亮眼

919
00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:17,410
所以你必须时刻关注市场寻找机会

920
00:28:17,410 --> 00:28:18,029
而它会

921
00:28:18,029 --> 00:28:20,220
将为你带来惊人机会

922
00:28:20,220 --> 00:28:22,339
但不会同时所有股票都表现一致

923
00:28:22,339 --> 00:28:24,849
除非整个市场崩盘

924
00:28:24,849 --> 00:28:26,250
假设整个市场崩盘

925
00:28:26,250 --> 00:28:27,910
下跌30%到50%

926
00:28:27,910 --> 00:28:28,349
好的

927
00:28:28,349 --> 00:28:30,349
那时所有股票都是绝佳机会

928
00:28:30,349 --> 00:28:33,380
但大多数市场并非如此

929
00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:35,849
会有小幅或中度调整

930
00:28:35,849 --> 00:28:39,170
其中有些股票可能不值得投资

931
00:28:39,170 --> 00:28:41,569
而另一些股票则是绝佳投资机会

932
00:28:41,569 --> 00:28:42,630
你一生见过的最棒交易

933
00:28:42,630 --> 00:28:46,000
没错，这就是个股投资者的优势

934
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,319
因为你能捕捉套利机会

935
00:28:47,319 --> 00:28:47,579
而且

936
00:28:47,579 --> 00:28:48,119
天啊

937
00:28:48,119 --> 00:28:48,960
收益简直疯狂

938
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:49,319
没错

939
00:28:49,319 --> 00:28:51,480
从个股角度看指数

940
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,160
或从盈利角度看

941
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:54,140
从个股视角

942
00:28:54,140 --> 00:28:55,839
从个股视角

943
00:28:55,839 --> 00:28:56,920
或许就像

944
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,200
标普500要翻三倍需要多久

945
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:01,920
不知道

946
00:29:02,279 --> 00:29:03,220
十年到二十年

947
00:29:03,220 --> 00:29:03,440
我认为

948
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,159
我的猜测标普500可能需要十年到二十年翻三倍

949
00:29:07,159 --> 00:29:11,118
未来四个月内ELF能否翻三倍

950
00:29:11,118 --> 00:29:13,869
他们公布数据并实现快速增长

951
00:29:13,869 --> 00:29:15,269
他们只是不断推高股价

952
00:29:15,269 --> 00:29:16,450
利润率持续攀升

953
00:29:16,450 --> 00:29:18,769
未来四个月内盈利能力将持续增长

954
00:29:18,769 --> 00:29:22,460
他们的股票将在未来四个月内翻三倍

955
00:29:22,460 --> 00:29:23,460
与此同时标普指数上涨百点

956
00:29:23,460 --> 00:29:27,259
下一次真正的三倍增长可能要等到十年到二十年后

957
00:29:28,529 --> 00:29:29,750
没错，这其实

958
00:29:29,750 --> 00:29:30,910
只是不同的投资机会

959
00:29:30,910 --> 00:29:31,569
下一次机会何时到来

960
00:29:31,569 --> 00:29:32,589
苹果股价翻倍

961
00:29:32,589 --> 00:29:34,329
苹果大概率不会翻三倍

962
00:29:34,329 --> 00:29:35,630
我们得坦诚相告

963
00:29:35,630 --> 00:29:37,779
嗯确实如此

964
00:29:37,779 --> 00:29:38,440
如果真的发生

965
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,230
从现在起需要很长很长的时间

966
00:29:41,230 --> 00:29:44,349
看看道指季度最佳表现股

967
00:29:44,349 --> 00:29:45,769
是雪佛龙上涨30

968
00:29:45,769 --> 00:29:46,980
5个百分点

969
00:29:46,980 --> 00:29:50,480
上月十一大板块中有十一个下跌

970
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,888
唯一上涨的是能源板块

971
00:29:52,888 --> 00:29:54,249
确实存在担忧

972
00:29:54,249 --> 00:29:56,749
这些高能源价格能否持续

973
00:29:56,749 --> 00:29:56,929
因为

974
00:29:56,929 --> 00:29:58,648
这些股票现在炙手可热

975
00:29:58,648 --> 00:30:00,509
对了这些股票是否仍保持热度

976
00:30:00,509 --> 00:30:01,309
两年后

977
00:30:01,309 --> 00:30:02,289
我很难相信

978
00:30:02,289 --> 00:30:03,109
我很难相信

979
00:30:03,109 --> 00:30:04,200
即使是一年后

980
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,079
很难说会对这些板块产生影响

981
00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:07,519
工业板块

982
00:30:07,519 --> 00:30:09,119
可能是当月最差板块

983
00:30:09,119 --> 00:30:12,720
短期内能源市场面临情绪挑战

984
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,460
但市场仍存在长期结构性主题

985
00:30:16,460 --> 00:30:18,900
比如工业板块

986
00:30:18,900 --> 00:30:19,319
原材料板块

987
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:20,000
公用事业板块

988
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:20,880
仍存在

989
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,539
围绕基建的AI技术层

990
00:30:22,539 --> 00:30:24,440
将持续多年

991
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,900
观察当前并购活动

992
00:30:26,900 --> 00:30:28,539
仍处于高位

993
00:30:28,539 --> 00:30:30,000
规模较大的交易

994
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:30,960
活跃频繁

995
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,700
面对诸多不确定性

996
00:30:32,700 --> 00:30:33,759
市场存在局部机会

997
00:30:33,759 --> 00:30:38,079
企业基本面超越短期挑战

998
00:30:38,079 --> 00:30:39,240
我同意你的观点

999
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:39,599
这种

1000
00:30:39,599 --> 00:30:42,710
当前市场的反弹可能过早

1001
00:30:42,710 --> 00:30:44,690
这里可能持续时间不长

1002
00:30:44,690 --> 00:30:48,970
因为如果你看不到石油的自由流动和价格下降

1003
00:30:48,970 --> 00:30:51,470
这将是一个更长期的挑战

1004
00:30:51,470 --> 00:30:54,109
但再想想像2022年这样的年份

1005
00:30:54,109 --> 00:30:56,609
那将持续成为主要挑战

1006
00:30:56,609 --> 00:30:58,980
但最终你确实看到了一些缓解

1007
00:30:58,980 --> 00:31:01,900
虽然其他市场恢复需要时间

1008
00:31:01,900 --> 00:31:04,609
这为我们带来了两年强劲回报

1009
00:31:04,609 --> 00:31:05,750
谈到人工智能

1010
00:31:05,750 --> 00:31:06,549
你喜欢什么

1011
00:31:06,549 --> 00:31:10,250
另一个值得关注的问题是破坏性影响

1012
00:31:10,250 --> 00:31:11,210
你知道我喜欢什么

1013
00:31:11,210 --> 00:31:14,529
AI A M和

1014
00:31:14,529 --> 00:31:15,069
宝宝

1015
00:31:15,069 --> 00:31:18,470
过去一个月道指最差表现的是Salesforce

1016
00:31:18,470 --> 00:31:21,388
因为担忧AI会吞噬其市场

1017
00:31:21,388 --> 00:31:23,930
在人工智能和科技领域你喜欢什么

1018
00:31:23,930 --> 00:31:26,470
现在关注的是基础设施层

1019
00:31:26,470 --> 00:31:30,460
我们从资本消耗者转向资本接收者

1020
00:31:30,460 --> 00:31:33,700
这在许多价值导向行业中显现

1021
00:31:33,700 --> 00:31:35,279
无论是工业

1022
00:31:35,279 --> 00:31:35,779
材料

1023
00:31:35,779 --> 00:31:36,599
公用事业

1024
00:31:36,599 --> 00:31:37,880
那能源故事

1025
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,500
各种大宗商品输入

1026
00:31:39,500 --> 00:31:39,880
我说

1027
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:44,599
科技业已从轻资产转向重资产行业

1028
00:31:44,599 --> 00:31:46,900
需要大量投入资源

1029
00:31:46,900 --> 00:31:48,039
这就是我们仍在看到的

1030
00:31:48,039 --> 00:31:49,160
即使按年至今

1031
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,160
尽管过去一个月有挑战

1032
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,569
市场某些领域仍有成功

1033
00:31:53,569 --> 00:31:57,269
这种交易仍在暗流中进行

1034
00:31:57,269 --> 00:32:00,470
我们也不能忽视科技行业

1035
00:32:00,470 --> 00:32:02,730
比如像七巨头

1036
00:32:02,730 --> 00:32:06,950
年初估值从29倍

1037
00:32:06,950 --> 00:32:08,069
涨至23倍

1038
00:32:08,069 --> 00:32:12,180
需注意投资组合中已持有的标的

1039
00:32:12,180 --> 00:32:16,259
甚至七巨头内部相关性大幅下降

1040
00:32:16,259 --> 00:32:21,339
现在有机会精选优质个股

1041
00:32:21,339 --> 00:32:21,660
我不知道

1042
00:32:21,660 --> 00:32:23,059
我好像没在CNBC见过她

1043
00:32:23,059 --> 00:32:25,180
我总在背景里听到CNBC

1044
00:32:25,180 --> 00:32:26,099
所以没见到她

1045
00:32:26,099 --> 00:32:27,059
她是个非常聪明的人

1046
00:32:27,059 --> 00:32:29,640
我必须说

1047
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:34,339
这是科技巨头和巨额投资的问题

1048
00:32:34,339 --> 00:32:36,789
比如Meta和亚马逊对我而言

1049
00:32:36,789 --> 00:32:39,390
我认为它们永远无法再创前绩

1050
00:32:39,390 --> 00:32:41,130
它们以前的表现再也回不来了

1051
00:32:41,130 --> 00:32:42,809
无论增长速度如何

1052
00:32:42,809 --> 00:32:46,009
原因在于它们资本开支需求极高

1053
00:32:46,009 --> 00:32:51,990
现在它们将被估值为重资本支出公司

1054
00:32:51,990 --> 00:32:57,490
而这类公司通常拥有10到18倍的市盈率

1055
00:32:58,609 --> 00:33:03,299
这些公司过去能获得20倍以上的市销率的日子

1056
00:33:03,299 --> 00:33:05,380
或许能重新获得

1057
00:33:05,380 --> 00:33:06,619
但我并不确定

1058
00:33:06,619 --> 00:33:07,980
因为它们资本支出占比极高

1059
00:33:07,980 --> 00:33:11,630
图表显示未来每年将出现疯狂折旧

1060
00:33:11,630 --> 00:33:13,990
除非他们选择放弃并说不不

1061
00:33:13,990 --> 00:33:14,650
我们不是

1062
00:33:14,650 --> 00:33:15,089
但是

1063
00:33:15,089 --> 00:33:16,609
这也是苹果仍能

1064
00:33:16,609 --> 00:33:18,009
如果你看苹果的表现就像

1065
00:33:18,009 --> 00:33:20,029
苹果为何仍能维持28倍

1066
00:33:20,029 --> 00:33:21,589
市盈率四倍

1067
00:33:21,589 --> 00:33:23,829
或者我认为现在大约是24倍市盈率

1068
00:33:23,829 --> 00:33:25,630
而他们的增长甚至不理想

1069
00:33:25,630 --> 00:33:28,710
原因在于苹果资本支出轻

1070
00:33:28,710 --> 00:33:29,829
它们不需要巨额投入

1071
00:33:29,829 --> 00:33:31,230
所以人们赚得盆满钵满

1072
00:33:31,230 --> 00:33:32,190
而且无需消耗资金

1073
00:33:32,190 --> 00:33:33,390
因此可以回购大量股票

1074
00:33:33,390 --> 00:33:34,388
我们喜欢这种策略

1075
00:33:34,388 --> 00:33:36,148
与此同时你却在抱怨亚马逊

1076
00:33:36,148 --> 00:33:36,749
微软

1077
00:33:36,749 --> 00:33:38,009
或谷歌这些其他公司

1078
00:33:38,009 --> 00:33:40,750
很难再维持28倍的市盈率

1079
00:33:40,750 --> 00:33:42,430
无论你的增长率如何

1080
00:33:42,430 --> 00:33:43,910
只是因为人们会说哎呀

1081
00:33:43,910 --> 00:33:45,589
你每一分钱都要花出去对吧

1082
00:33:45,589 --> 00:33:46,769
重新投入业务

1083
00:33:46,769 --> 00:33:48,789
所以

1084
00:33:50,099 --> 00:33:51,259
这一点需要记住

1085
00:33:51,259 --> 00:33:52,700
感谢大家参与

1086
00:33:52,700 --> 00:33:53,619
非常感谢你们的到来

1087
00:33:53,619 --> 00:33:55,339
朋友们把握优惠机会

1088
00:33:55,339 --> 00:33:56,740
我们今天有最大优惠

1089
00:33:56,740 --> 00:33:58,220
此优惠剩余9小时

1090
00:33:58,220 --> 00:33:58,940
愚人节玩笑

1091
00:33:58,940 --> 00:33:59,680
别当真

1092
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,259
访问四千x股票网

1093
00:34:01,259 --> 00:34:03,650
这是完整产品套件搜索功能

1094
00:34:03,650 --> 00:34:04,430
我们的对比功能

1095
00:34:04,430 --> 00:34:07,849
可同时对比三家公司

1096
00:34:07,849 --> 00:34:09,630
看看这简直太美了

1097
00:34:09,630 --> 00:34:12,599
我们拥有强大的图表功能

1098
00:34:12,599 --> 00:34:15,219
我们仍在持续完善

1099
00:34:15,219 --> 00:34:18,710
可全面查看公司动态

1100
00:34:18,710 --> 00:34:21,719
提供中级和高级预测

1101
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:22,679
我向你展示了一点相关内容

1102
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:23,518
就中期阶段而言

1103
00:34:23,518 --> 00:34:25,179
我们在这里有财报电话会议

1104
00:34:25,179 --> 00:34:28,079
所以如果你想对耐克做更深入的研究

1105
00:34:28,079 --> 00:34:30,568
只需输入耐克并点击你的符号

1106
00:34:30,568 --> 00:34:31,809
收听会议电话

1107
00:34:31,809 --> 00:34:32,088
控制

1108
00:34:32,088 --> 00:34:34,199
以你想要的语速收听

1109
00:34:34,199 --> 00:34:38,259
这里为你提供了AI生成的会议要点

1110
00:34:38,259 --> 00:34:41,840
这里还有会议的完整转录文本

1111
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:42,840
真是太棒了对吧

1112
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,079
我们有各项指标并详细解释这些内容

1113
00:34:45,079 --> 00:34:46,079
如果你是市场新手

1114
00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:46,840
你可能不了解

1115
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,838
所有这些术语的含义

1116
00:34:48,838 --> 00:34:49,498
这类内容

1117
00:34:49,498 --> 00:34:51,878
这些部分令人难以置信

1118
00:34:51,878 --> 00:34:52,398
你会说

1119
00:34:52,398 --> 00:34:54,659
我想了解如何解读损益表

1120
00:34:54,659 --> 00:34:56,358
帮你整理所有信息

1121
00:34:56,358 --> 00:34:57,099
看看这个

1122
00:34:57,099 --> 00:34:58,298
看看这个

1123
00:34:58,298 --> 00:35:01,650
马上就要煎松饼了

1124
00:35:01,650 --> 00:35:03,329
你可以通读这份文件

1125
00:35:03,329 --> 00:35:05,559
即使你完全不了解损益表

1126
00:35:05,559 --> 00:35:07,360
一小时后你就能离开

1127
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,179
深入学习后你会感到

1128
00:35:09,179 --> 00:35:09,420
好的

1129
00:35:09,420 --> 00:35:11,800
我对读损益表有了大致了解

1130
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,780
没错，你可以继续深入探索

1131
00:35:13,780 --> 00:35:14,300
没错

1132
00:35:14,300 --> 00:35:16,340
我们有大量基础期权策略

1133
00:35:16,340 --> 00:35:17,320
高级期权策略

1134
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:18,300
各种不同内容

1135
00:35:18,300 --> 00:35:18,599
好的

1136
00:35:18,599 --> 00:35:18,980
好的

1137
00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:19,139
各位

1138
00:35:19,139 --> 00:35:19,360
感谢

1139
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:20,679
请把握这个优惠

1140
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:21,179
留下评论

1141
00:35:21,179 --> 00:35:22,900
衷心祝福大家，祝您有美好的一天

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