【NaNa说美股】20260311脚踩西瓜皮，滑到哪儿算哪儿。

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月11号

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周三CPI呢安全落地

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美股三大股指全天维持窄幅波动

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标普与纳指基本平收

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周期股表现疲软

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道指收跌0.61%

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美国2月CPI数据全线符合市场预期

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同比上涨2.4%

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与前值持平

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环比上涨0.3%

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前值为0.2%

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核心CPI同比上涨2.5%

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环比上涨0.2%

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住房仍然是单月通胀的最大推动因素

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2月美国通胀呢呈现嗯平稳降温的态势

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各项核心指标都精准契合

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是残余期哈

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但是关税传导效应开始显现

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家电与服装价格大幅跳涨

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由于中东战火引发的原油飙升

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这份报告已经是滞后了

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市场更关注下个月的数据

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投资者普遍预计

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美联储将会在下周会议上维持利率不变

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随着战争可能在短期内推高通胀

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一些投资者现在认为

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美联储可能会更长时间维持利率不变

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在媒体昨天报道

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伊朗开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷后呢

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国际油价就获得了支撑

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即使国际能源署

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今天批准了有史以来最大规模的紧急

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石油储备释放计划

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油价也没有继续下跌了

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前两天的大幅回落已经提前反映了这个消息

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国际能源署成员国呢将会一共释放4亿桶石油

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以应对伊朗战争引发的原油供应中断

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这规模呀超过了2022年俄乌冲突爆发之后

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投放的1.82亿桶

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这32个成员国

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一共拥有超过12亿桶的公共紧急储备

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其中包括规模最大的呃

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缓冲就是美国的战略石油储备

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此外呢还有6亿桶政府要求下的行业储备

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虽然储备还算是充足

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但是亚洲国家面临的压力呢就尤其巨大

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其实国际能源署的这个决定也侧面说明

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中东的战火没有那么快结束

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哈霍尔木兹海峡何时才能恢复通行

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仍然高度不确定

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否则的话

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国际能源署为什么要紧急释放

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这个史上最大规模的石油储备呢

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昨天开会都说暂时不放了

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结果伊朗布设水雷的消息一出来

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今天就紧急开会

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立即同意释放了

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所以咱们不要听他们怎么说

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要看他们怎么做

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川普呢

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今天发帖警告伊朗

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不要在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷

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否则将会面临前所未有的军事后果

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五角大楼表示

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美军正在打击伊朗的布雷舰和水雷存储设施

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伊朗这边态度很强硬啊

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称绝不允许任何属于美国

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以色列以及其伙伴的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡

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而且还宣布伊朗以往的对等反击已经结束了

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从现在起哈

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伊朗要实施连环打击策略

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不再维持一对一的报复节奏了

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要掌握主动权了呃

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要给美国和以色列一些惊喜

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据美国广播公司援引内部材料报道

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美国联邦调查局呢已经警告加州警方称

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伊朗可能为报复美国攻击

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向美国西海岸发射进攻性无人机

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即使不是这个嗯

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无人机

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也可能会制造一些其他的这个恐怖袭击行动哈

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欧洲这几年反正是这种事情见得比较多了

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所以在欧美的朋友们都要注意这个安全

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摩根大通直言

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无论是释放储备

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限制出口还是豁免燃油税

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这些政策工具全都是杯水车薪

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霍尔木兹海峡的封锁

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造成每天潜在的断供高达1200万桶

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远超任何政策的覆盖能力

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所以油价真正的拐点就只有一个

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就是美国海军完全控制霍尔木兹海峡

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游轮可以安全通行

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否则的话都是这个头痛医头

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脚痛医脚而已

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标普500指数呢正在呈现抵抗式下跌

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多头今天在6750附近拼死护盘

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我们昨天说过嘛

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这个呃6730~6750

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是中期枢纽哈

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之所以指数还能够支撑着没有大跌

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除了国际能源署紧急释放石油储备

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压制油价之外呢

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还有川普今天持续给市场做心灵马杀鸡的原因

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今天呢他在接受大约5分钟的电话采访中

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再重生

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与伊朗的战争将很快结束

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因为几乎已经没有什么可以打击的目标了

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只剩下一点点零星目标啊

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他还说

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只要我想结束战争

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随时可以结束

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这番话传出来之后

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标普Y指数与纳指都升到了盘中高点

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不过呢这次打鸡血效果只持续了10分钟

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不到就谢了哈

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指数又掉头转跌了

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在这种反反复复的大口交易中呃

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我们也发现美股市场正逐渐的对中东冲突脱敏

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就像之前对关税脱敏一样

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不过呢只要波动率指数V10还处于20以上哈

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市场的高波动性预计还会持续的

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短期可能会出现一个稍微缓和的窗口期

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因为布什号航母正在拼命划水赶往中东

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要到这个月底才能够到达

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届时再来一波狠的

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现在呢呃军力不足

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武器不足

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川普就先放烟雾弹哈

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来迷惑视察

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也迷惑伊朗

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顺便他扣我赚点钱

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个股方面

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甲骨文又不争气了哈

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公司财报超预期的CEO

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在财报电话会议上各种强势

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扬眉吐气啊

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但是股价高开低走

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盘出还涨近15%

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结果盘中持续回落

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最后尾盘呢回吐了日内大半涨幅

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看来市场的信心还不是很充足

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n b i is股价今天跳空大涨

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英伟达将向嗯该公司投资20亿美元

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双方深化全站AI技术合作

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英伟达将会支持NBS

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率先采用最新一代英伟达加速计算平台

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再加上今天呃甲骨文财报利好

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连带着COVIV的股价也被资金给拉起来了

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吃到了一波板块红利

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无人机概念股AVAV呢嗯季后下跌

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公司2026财年第三财季

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营收4.08亿美元

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同比增长143%

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但是净亏损1.56亿美元

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比上年同期的亏损180万美元显著扩大哈

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另外呢公司海下调了本财年业绩指引

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所以财报公布之后

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华尔街分析师九下调了该股的目标价

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称其收入和调整后的一比塔

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远低于市场普遍预期啊

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令人失望

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难怪它的股价近期就一直走低

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除了3月2号周一那天

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因为周末美国袭击伊朗

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股价盘出还一度飙升20%

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结果主力趁机就拉高出货了

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另一只无人机网红股ONDS

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股价呢也震荡走弱

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无人机板块呃

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并没有

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因为这一次的中东战争爆发

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这看起来有些反直觉

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就和满手黄金等这个世界末日的投资者

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一样的郁闷

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可能是因为无人机在现代战争中的重要性

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已经被市场讲了两年哈

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很多无人机概念股在过去一年已经被资金呃

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炒过一轮了

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就像那个黄金呃

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过去一年已经涨了很多了

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当真正出现新的战争新闻的时候

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对该板块的提振作用呢就很有限

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另外市场也可能仍在预期

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美国对伊朗的军事启动呃

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只是短期的很快就会结束

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所以就算上涨涨势也难以持续

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耐克股价近期连续下跌啊

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今天再次高开低走

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消息面上

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巴克莱将耐克品级从嗯同等权重上调至超配

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目标价呢从64美元上调到73美元

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另外公司还签署了一项为期

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364天的无担保循环信贷协议

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获得10亿美元的贷款额度

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借额度最高可以增加到15亿美元

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这个价位短期是嗯

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可以适当的这个建仓博反弹哈

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但是不保证是真正的大底部

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去年4月份的谷底50美元

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这里的支撑可能会更为强劲

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但是我们也很难就买到这个大底啦

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只要不是一次性梭哈

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买一点的话还是可以的

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狼猫头鹰呢

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这苦日子什么时候是个头呀

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就今天又传出两个坏消息打压了市场情绪

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一个是摩根大通下调私募信贷抵押评估值

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收紧了放贷杠杆

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00:09:25,309 --> 00:09:29,480
第二呢是又有一家信贷基金cliff water

213
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,080
遭遇了投资者大规模赎回申请

214
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,578
于是该基金就将赎回上限设定为7%

215
00:09:37,578 --> 00:09:41,149
只要远低于客户们要求赎回的14%

216
00:09:41,149 --> 00:09:43,549
引发客户们撤资的主要原因呢

217
00:09:43,549 --> 00:09:45,309
是担忧其贷款质量

218
00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:47,909
以及对可能受AI发展冲击的

219
00:09:47,909 --> 00:09:50,269
软件公司的风险敞口

220
00:09:50,269 --> 00:09:51,470
cliff water嗯

221
00:09:51,470 --> 00:09:55,139
反驳了市场对其底层资产质量的担忧

222
00:09:55,139 --> 00:09:58,139
认为当前对私募信贷基金的抛售

223
00:09:58,139 --> 00:10:00,980
更多是由市场情绪所驱动的

224
00:10:00,980 --> 00:10:03,500
并非基本面因素所导致

225
00:10:03,500 --> 00:10:05,100
但如果挤兑多了

226
00:10:05,100 --> 00:10:09,049
那情绪面也可能发展成基本面的问题的哈

227
00:10:09,049 --> 00:10:11,649
核电股龙头今天多数下跌

228
00:10:11,649 --> 00:10:15,840
纽约州长明确表示反对重启印第安讲

229
00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,019
这个核电站

230
00:10:17,019 --> 00:10:18,200
就在几天前

231
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,240
美国能源部长才刚刚到访

232
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:21,320
这个核电站

233
00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,649
鼓励呃它重启

234
00:10:23,649 --> 00:10:25,470
如果没有州长的支持的话

235
00:10:25,470 --> 00:10:28,110
那这个印第安角核电站的重启

236
00:10:28,110 --> 00:10:29,750
几乎就不可能实现

237
00:10:29,750 --> 00:10:32,870
这个消息呢也打击了其他嗯

238
00:10:32,870 --> 00:10:38,049
也正这个试图重启老旧核电站的公用事业

239
00:10:38,049 --> 00:10:38,629
电力公司

240
00:10:38,629 --> 00:10:41,679
比如像洗衣机VST等等行

241
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,159
今天我们就简单的说到这里哈

242
00:10:44,159 --> 00:10:48,230
反正现在总体就是嗯嗯震荡的这个行情嘛

243
00:10:48,230 --> 00:10:49,950
或者是抵抗式的下跌

244
00:10:49,950 --> 00:10:54,480
大规模的做空或大规模的做多都不可取哈

245
00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:55,600
对于指数的话

246
00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:59,600
只能够小仓位的这个突击式的来做一下

247
00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,759
个股的话都基本有自己的独立行情

248
00:11:02,759 --> 00:11:04,240
还是可以做一下的

249
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,179
那我们明天见拜拜

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