全面取消限购，一线城市未来怎么走？

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一线城市开始要全面取消限购了

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6月12日

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广州市商务局

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就广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案

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征求意见稿

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面向社会公开征求意见

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其中提到

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有序减少消费限制

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优化房地产政策

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全面取消限购限售限价

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降低贷款首付比例和利率

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广州放松限购早有行动

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比如早在2024年1月

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广州就放开了120平米及以上面

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积户型的限购

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且出租房不计入家庭已有房产的套数

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放开商住限购

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当时这个措施很特别的一点是

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把出租的房子从业主手中的套数中和解

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基本上和完全放开限购没有太大的区别了

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我们可以带入场景

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一个购房者会买的房子

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无非是大于等于120平

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和小于120平的房子

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那么当他要买120平以上的房子时

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从那时起就彻底不限购

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当他要买120平以下的房子时

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可以把自己已有的房子不管多少套

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都按照市场价甚至低于市场价的租金

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快速挂牌出租

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一旦完成存量房的全部出租

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它就相当于无房户

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然后回来享受首套购房资格

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等买到房子之后

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之前出租的房子一年后再收回来

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也不会长期用低租金去做慈善

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这样一来就实现了无限制购买房产

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对于广州本地人来说

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这就相当于彻底取消了限购

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如今限购取消

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即无论你是不是广州本地人

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你想在广州买几套房就买几套房

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想买多大的房就买多大的房

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想买哪个区的房

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就买哪个区的房

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一取消限购的背景加速下行

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广州全面取消限购的背景是

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今年小阳春并未有效带动房价企稳回升

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反而在4月后出现进一步下跌的情况

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我们参考wind上的中原领先指数

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这是全国跟踪热点城市

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二手房真实价格最准确的数据

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在2025年5月

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四大一线城市的二手房价格变化为

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北京房价环比上月下跌1.3%

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同比去年下跌6.8%

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上海房价环比上月下跌1.4%

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同比去年下跌7.1%

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广州房价环比上月下跌1.0%

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同比去年下跌10.5%

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深圳房价环比上月下跌1.1%

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同比去年下跌3.4%

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这是八个月以来

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北上广深此项数据第一次月度环比下跌

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幅度同时在1%以上

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至此上海与广州

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全市二手房均价的累计跌幅

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都超过了30%

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北京接近30%

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为29.5%

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深圳接近40%

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为39.3%

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北上广深连同香港的房价都已经低

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过去年9月强刺激前的低点

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在这个背景下

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除了放松甚至取消限购外

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其他新的刺激应该也已经在路上了

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租金方面

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5月北上广深租金也出现小幅下跌

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这使得即便房价下跌

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但租金回报率仍然没有上升

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回到广州

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广州房价下跌是普遍性的情况

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而且出现了之前很多人难以想象的一幕

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城市核心地段

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优质房产的跌幅一点也不比周边地区小

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即使是在珠江新城接近腰斩的房子都不在少数

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如果考虑到这些房子比周边地区高得多的总价

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绝对值

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那么这些地区经历的资产蒸发情况

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明显更加严重

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二能否提振房价

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广州全面取消限购的消息意义重大

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标志着一线城市开始逐个取消限购了

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不要真觉得广州房地产比京沪深弱

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从数据看

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2008年到现在

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广州全市二手房累计涨幅和深圳差不多

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高于北京和上海

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而且在2008年至今的17年时间里

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广州的累计涨幅在四个城市中排第一的

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时间区间是最长的

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但这样全面取消限购的大动作下

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市场的反应却很冷淡

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在消息出来后的第一天

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A股房地产板块大跌

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跌幅甚至高于大盘

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这是因为市场已经看懂限购的逻辑了

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过去任何城市的限购

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都不是限制个人或家庭的持有总量

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而是限制某个时间点后的增量和交易量

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限购对房价不一定是利空

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因为严格的限购会让市场参与者产生

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非常强烈的惜售心理

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买的人少了

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卖的人也少了

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最后的效果是高位所盘

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举个例子

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假设你在广州2011年限购之前

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就囤了五套房子

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限购出台之后

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意味着你有钱也没法再买更多房产

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而且手上的这五套房卖出一套就没法再买回来

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那么限购严格

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很多人不会舍得轻易卖出自己手中的房产

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除非真的急用钱了

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是非常享受这种早期囤积大量房产

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坐享低成本

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不限购

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高增值的优势

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并笑看别人被限购的这种资产优越感的

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事实上

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在任何一个热点城市

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都有无数这样的人

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直到这两年房价大跌

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限购也被破除

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我们可以这样说

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限购是old money

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对new money的一种打压

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这就和上海2011年开始的房产税

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是同一个道理

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2011年之前

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你在上海哪怕有100套房之后

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不要再买入

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那你可以一分钱房产税都不交

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但如果你在2011年后才到上海

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只买了一套房

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但人均面积超过60平米

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那不好意思

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就算老业主有100套房都不需要交房产税

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你这个只有一套房的城市

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新居民也要交这笔钱

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总的来说

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限购把商品房

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这项原本普通的商品变得特殊化了

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看上去是限购

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实际上更多是起到了限售的作用

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最终使得存量房地产市场的流通量大幅减少

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稳定价格可以理解为价格的滤波器

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我们回看中国楼市市场化完成以后

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第一次大的回调期

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2008年

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那个时候四大一线城市均无限购

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但跌幅很大

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一线城市均价下跌20%

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深圳跌了快1/3

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不少关外的房子直接打五折

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由于那个时候并没有限购限售

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所以成交量也大

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属于放量下跌

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跌幅自然也比较剧烈

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如今广州率先全面取消限购

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使得房产这个商品的特殊属性消失

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由于北上广深在过去一年时间里

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限购已经出现了不同程度的松动

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带来的结果是成交量有所增加

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但挂牌量已远远快于成交量的速度增加

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导致市场上的代售存量房越来越多

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这也证明了我们上面对限购影响的观点

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所以说加强限购在房价上涨期无法打压房价

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取消限购

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在房价下跌期也难以拉升房价

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比较令人担心的是

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限购可以说是楼市刺激的最后一张王牌

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打完之后

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如果市场还不行怎么办

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有限购在房价下跌还可以解释为

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因为限购多头还可以抱希望说

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只要限购开放了

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就一定会涨

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但如果限购全面取消

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但市场还起不来的话

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市场信心可能会再下一个台阶

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会让那些过去限购时期怀有惜售心态

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不考虑卖房的存量房业主信心出现明显动摇

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从广州去年开放120平米

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变相让本地人不限购后市场的表现看

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这次取消限购影响很有限

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我认为下一步北京上海深圳也会继续放松限购

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但对于彻底取消限购还会观察

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他们不是怕彻底取消限购后房价大涨

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而是怕彻底取消限购后房价不涨

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因此从这个角度看

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应该为广州果断大胆与执行力点赞

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三回归市场

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虽然取消限购无法逆转房价走势

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但对于房地产市场来说仍然是一件大好事

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因为彻底取消限购

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限售限贷等各种楼市行政限制

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属于把市场的东西还给市场

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让市场去调节价格和成交量

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有利于市场的长期健康发展

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另外即使取消限购

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可能让市场面临更大压力

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例如商品特殊性被打破

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抛盘大幅增加

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但也有助于市场尽快调整到位

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只有风险彻底出清

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市场才能真正止跌回稳

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对于业主来说

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想买就买

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想卖就卖

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属于自己的资产自己做主

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关于房价

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00:07:43,189 --> 00:07:44,550
过去已经说了N次

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现在也不想再做展望了

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00:07:46,470 --> 00:07:49,069
我认为此时去谈房价已经没有意义了

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但对于买房的建议值得再重新说一遍

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如果你要投资

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00:07:52,939 --> 00:07:54,199
一定不要买房

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如果你是自住

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那么先假设买房后房价会下跌

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如果这种情况下也需要买房

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那就买

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否则就不买

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00:08:01,459 --> 00:08:04,579
用消费而非投资的视角去看待房子

237
00:08:05,730 --> 00:08:09,230
把侧重点放到居住和改善生活上来

238
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如果你喜欢本期视频

239
00:08:11,029 --> 00:08:12,430
希望可以点赞关注

240
00:08:12,430 --> 00:08:13,170
支持一波

241
00:08:13,170 --> 00:08:15,480
这将对我有很大的帮助

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