【Financial Education】AMD暴涨7%，软件股史诗级抄底机会！

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忙碌的时光

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确实很忙

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今天我们在这段视频里要讨论几个重要话题

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好的

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在这段视频里，作为大额AMD股东，我们将讨论AMD股票

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那里发生了什么

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股价单日上涨超7%

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谈谈我的观点

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分析当前局势的看法

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谈谈Fubo

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这只股票正在经历暴跌

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现在已是奄奄一息

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我们将讨论Fubo的情况

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我的观点和看法都在这里

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所以今天在这段视频里

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一件非常有趣的事

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我在Sofi身上看到的

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我们将讨论美光科技股票，这只股票一直疲软

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自从他们的财报持续下滑直到中国城

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刚看到有人下了一个

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五百万美元的看跌期权押注，押美光跌至28美元

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那是什么时候呢，我想是5月1日

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今天这段视频我们也会讨论美光

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好的

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这就是视频开头要讲的内容

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接下来

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迪夫穿着一件超酷的夹克

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看看丹·伊夫

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天啊，这可不是闹着玩的

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疯子

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再说说科技交易

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这些相关话题期待深入探讨

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还有这只股票随油价下跌而上涨

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谨慎乐观

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所有这些好东西准备分享我的观点

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看法都在这里

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忙碌的时光

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各位

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一件事

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只求你们一件

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请点个赞

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点个点赞图标

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今天对我来说意义重大

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另外请务必订阅频道

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现在有多少订阅者

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这个频道有十三万粉丝

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差不多这样

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感谢每一位观众

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好的

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好的

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所以amd一开始就说

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让我们聊聊

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这是一部大片

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一个毫无预兆的日子

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七点，如果你看看

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例如

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纳斯达克指数

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纳斯达克下跌了0.7点

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这里下跌了7%

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当日下跌500.5点

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百分之四

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因此市场今天表现尚可

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但AMD股价突然暴涨

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AMD到底发生了什么

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我也在我的X账号上发布了动态

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不知道大家是否关注我的Expo账号

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链接已在视频描述区

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所有视频下方都有标注

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AMD究竟在搞什么名堂

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这里到底发生了什么，我们来听听幕后消息

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关于amd，我们听说他们可能会上调

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GPU和CPU定价

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不是GPU和CPU定价

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据目前听到的报告可能上涨十五个百分点

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每当听到这些报道时

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不要总是认为这是确定无疑的事情对吧

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但很多时候这些报道不会发布

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除非有事实依据存在对吧

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这是否也说得通

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是的

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这确实合乎逻辑

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CPU需求目前也在快速激增

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加上GPU需求

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所以AMD现在调整价格

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完全在预料之中

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尤其是考虑到AMD在我看来一直定价偏低

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我一直以来都是这么认为的

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我一直觉得AMD定价稍显偏低

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他们总是试图全面压低竞争对手价格

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所以在这种市场环境下

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我们现在所处的阶段

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CPU需求异常激增

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GPU需求同样疯狂

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你现在确实拥有很强的定价权

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如果你是像AMD这样的公司

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对于NVIDIA来说也是如此

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这正是当前的难点

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仅仅因为拥有AMD

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终于推出450芯片成为真正竞争者，对于NVIDIA

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这有点更具挑战性

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在价格优势方面，如果要提高价格

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如果有什么的话，英伟达可能不得不降价

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没错

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但AMD在CPU和GPU领域有更多调整空间

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在CPU和GPU领域

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在我看来需要大幅提价

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你将会看到

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这将在AMD的利润率中反映出来，未来四个季度

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我认为即将发生的事情

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你将会看到AMD的利润率提升

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我说的是毛利率

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我说的是运营利润率

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我说的是净利率

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这些指标将持续增长

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随着每年的推进，只需等待未来三到四个季度的利润率

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从现在开始

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你可以随意翻煎饼

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好的

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所以AMD

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激动人心的时刻

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我想也

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我们即将进入一个炒作周期

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我们需要度过这些混乱

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现在市场明显存在大量负面情绪

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当我们度过这个阶段

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将迎来重大炒作周期

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随着45系列的临近，AMD将备受关注

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所以

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只需理解

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我一直强调关于AMD的观点

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像AMD

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当

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一旦市场稍有回暖

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风险偏好上升

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AMD将飙升，看看今天的情况

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你知道的

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纳斯达克上涨了一些，而AMD

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你知道的

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而NASA X上涨0.7%，AMD涨幅超过7%

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这简直难以置信

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请记住这一点

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如果市场转向风险偏好

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做好准备

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天啊

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你还没

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你还没见过什么

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关于AMD的这种走势

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好的

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嗯

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接下来我想讨论

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我们继续聊聊sofi吧

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关于sofi我有个好消息

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所以我是好的

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浑水报告显然严重拖累股价

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股票在报告发布前一周就已疲软

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但sofi的好消息在于当前局势

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如果我具体调出

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大概五天周期

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这里是一只股票

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显然正在见底

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如果市场再次暴跌

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没错纳斯达克也会遭殃

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纳斯达克被打压

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罗素2000指数被打压

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所有风险资产

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就像sofi在下跌

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就这么简单

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这只是对任何风险资产的描述

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比如sovalue

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没错

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然而

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如果市场企稳并开始上涨

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sofi有望重返二十

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目前来看

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短期走势就是这样

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这就是现状

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但如果你想了解好消息

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你确实有好消息

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好的现在

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你想要关于salesforce软件股的坏消息

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Adobe、ServiceNow

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这些股票都在被讨论

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持续不断

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持续抛售压力

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简直难以置信

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IGV仍在下跌

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我认为IGV今日又下跌了

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我们接受这个

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是的

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IGV今日再次下跌

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下跌0.52%

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我认为微软今日又下跌了

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微软

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我说

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这些股票的疲软程度令人震惊

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至于我的看法

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我认为市场是盲目的

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这就是我的观点

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我认为市场坚信这些公司未来将无增长

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我们将面临商业模式萎缩

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我觉得这恐怕不会

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结果会怎样呢

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所以我们在这里存在重大意见分歧

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最终我们会看到谁是对的

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没错

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嗯

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这就是市场的魅力所在

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但在我看来这是买入软件股的最佳时机

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至少自金融危机以来

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你得回溯这么长时间才能看到软件相关股票的交易

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你知道我总觉估值太离谱

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所以我们拭目以待吧

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让我们看看会发生什么

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但我认为最终人们会意识到

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关于私募信贷背后有很多动态

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背后有很多事情在发生

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关于私募信贷赎回人们并不知情

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据我了解很多私募信贷 heavily invested into SaaS相关股票

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软件股没错所以你要记住

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这可能与

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人们过度害怕AI

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软件股未来不会有增长

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或者类似的事情

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这可能更多与

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人们需要资金

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所以他们卖出

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比如

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这就是市场的常态

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你知道的

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我居住的城市

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拉斯维加斯房价下跌了50%以上

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金融危机期间峰值到谷值

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是因为没人相信拉斯维加斯房地产会很贵

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从那时起十年或二十年

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不是因为人们不相信

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人们以任何价格出售这些资产

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对吧收购房产

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折价出售

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诸如此类的操作

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没错

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他们扔掉钥匙

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他们无所不用其极

243
00:07:22,529 --> 00:07:25,798
这与

244
00:07:25,798 --> 00:07:27,478
当前发生很多事情

245
00:07:27,478 --> 00:07:28,098
SaaS股票的情况

246
00:07:28,098 --> 00:07:29,838
这与

247
00:07:29,838 --> 00:07:32,238
Salesforce十年后或五年的前景

248
00:07:32,238 --> 00:07:34,079
或Adobe五年或十年后的状况

249
00:07:34,079 --> 00:07:36,079
我们如今是服务型公司如Intuit

250
00:07:36,079 --> 00:07:37,678
或这些公司如微软

251
00:07:37,678 --> 00:07:38,259
说起来

252
00:07:38,259 --> 00:07:40,459
这与人们想要金钱有关

253
00:07:40,459 --> 00:07:41,738
因此他们

254
00:07:41,738 --> 00:07:43,839
他们正在赎回这些基金

255
00:07:43,839 --> 00:07:45,079
他们只是抛售

256
00:07:45,079 --> 00:07:47,879
所以请记住这一点

257
00:07:47,879 --> 00:07:48,509
好的

258
00:07:48,509 --> 00:07:50,350
我想谈谈另一只股票fubo

259
00:07:50,350 --> 00:07:50,910
fubo

260
00:07:50,910 --> 00:07:51,470
天啊

261
00:07:51,470 --> 00:07:52,689
这只股票被重创了

262
00:07:52,689 --> 00:07:54,509
你知道我看到一些有趣的东西

263
00:07:54,509 --> 00:07:56,889
他们今天在cnbc上讨论这个

264
00:07:56,889 --> 00:07:58,610
真希望我能给你们截个图

265
00:07:58,610 --> 00:08:00,788
但他们在谈论周一

266
00:08:00,788 --> 00:08:02,749
那两天前发生了什么

267
00:08:02,749 --> 00:08:03,788
嗯

268
00:08:03,788 --> 00:08:07,228
他们在说散户投资者正在抛售

269
00:08:07,228 --> 00:08:10,579
散户实际上显示出弱势

270
00:08:10,579 --> 00:08:15,470
我们还看到散户近期买入活动非常低迷

271
00:08:15,470 --> 00:08:17,410
或者散户在买入

272
00:08:17,410 --> 00:08:21,670
看来散户现在非常谨慎

273
00:08:21,670 --> 00:08:23,459
像sofi这样的股票

274
00:08:23,459 --> 00:08:24,939
我说像soi这样的股票

275
00:08:24,939 --> 00:08:25,839
我也确实

276
00:08:25,839 --> 00:08:27,079
像fubo这样的股票

277
00:08:27,079 --> 00:08:27,860
天啊

278
00:08:27,860 --> 00:08:30,180
这完全由散户驱动

279
00:08:30,180 --> 00:08:32,450
像这样极小的市值

280
00:08:32,450 --> 00:08:37,350
此外他们刚进行了反向拆股

281
00:08:37,350 --> 00:08:39,450
公司反向拆股后股价通常几天下跌

282
00:08:39,450 --> 00:08:43,000
对于fubo来说

283
00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:44,440
抛售压力与基本面无关

284
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:45,320
不像foo

285
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,989
过去几周没有发布数据

286
00:08:48,989 --> 00:08:50,249
情况非常糟糕

287
00:08:50,249 --> 00:08:50,489
哦

288
00:08:50,489 --> 00:08:51,808
我们已经没有客户了

289
00:08:51,808 --> 00:08:52,369
你知道的

290
00:08:52,369 --> 00:08:53,288
天啊

291
00:08:53,288 --> 00:08:54,950
这些情况都没出现

292
00:08:54,950 --> 00:08:56,889
股票持续被抛售

293
00:08:56,889 --> 00:08:59,830
这时候要么坚定持有

294
00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:00,590
我坚持持有

295
00:09:00,590 --> 00:09:03,389
或者我要买入这个低点

296
00:09:03,389 --> 00:09:05,909
或者不

297
00:09:05,909 --> 00:09:07,850
我个人仍然相信这家公司

298
00:09:07,850 --> 00:09:09,750
利润表状况改善

299
00:09:09,750 --> 00:09:12,110
资产负债表也改善了

300
00:09:12,110 --> 00:09:16,350
这是一只高度投机性股票

301
00:09:16,350 --> 00:09:21,289
但我觉得只要投资者对方向有信心

302
00:09:21,289 --> 00:09:22,629
这家公司方向正确

303
00:09:22,629 --> 00:09:24,929
显然整个合并案让人困惑

304
00:09:24,929 --> 00:09:27,700
只要人们有坚定信念

305
00:09:27,700 --> 00:09:28,840
以及这家公司的发展方向

306
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,299
我认为股价会大幅上涨

307
00:09:31,299 --> 00:09:33,960
九到十二个月后会比现在高很多

308
00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,860
所以这是一场旧游戏必须继续

309
00:09:37,860 --> 00:09:40,980
如果看Micron这家公司的股票

310
00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:42,750
让我调出科技板块

311
00:09:42,750 --> 00:09:46,149
这家股票表现极其疲软

312
00:09:46,149 --> 00:09:49,370
自从他们发布惊人财报后

313
00:09:49,370 --> 00:09:52,299
他们的财报简直堪称

314
00:09:52,299 --> 00:09:53,080
完美

315
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:53,899
我说

316
00:09:53,899 --> 00:09:55,580
相当于A++评级

317
00:09:55,580 --> 00:09:57,240
在这里给Micron打分

318
00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,649
但股价却毫无起色

319
00:10:00,649 --> 00:10:03,909
看看财报前股价在哪

320
00:10:03,909 --> 00:10:05,200
当时在

321
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:05,940
你知道的

322
00:10:05,940 --> 00:10:07,519
接近470美元

323
00:10:07,519 --> 00:10:08,580
从那时起

324
00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:13,909
股价已下跌18%

325
00:10:13,909 --> 00:10:15,149
同期时间

326
00:10:15,149 --> 00:10:18,980
纳斯达克和标普500

327
00:10:18,980 --> 00:10:21,350
看看这些指数现在

328
00:10:21,350 --> 00:10:23,269
纳斯达克跌2%

329
00:10:23,269 --> 00:10:24,570
标普500跌1%

330
00:10:24,570 --> 00:10:26,090
而Micron跌18%

331
00:10:26,090 --> 00:10:28,590
这就是我对Micron的看法

332
00:10:28,590 --> 00:10:30,570
今天听我说

333
00:10:30,570 --> 00:10:31,850
谷歌麦克道格尔

334
00:10:31,850 --> 00:10:33,480
据说

335
00:10:33,879 --> 00:10:34,460
你知道的

336
00:10:34,460 --> 00:10:39,519
发布可能损害内存需求的东西

337
00:10:40,330 --> 00:10:40,889
内存

338
00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:44,269
人们对内存需求的预期

339
00:10:44,269 --> 00:10:48,028
现在我们将观察后续发展

340
00:10:48,028 --> 00:10:50,369
没人知道最终结果如何

341
00:10:50,369 --> 00:10:51,109
而且我说

342
00:10:51,109 --> 00:10:55,269
甚至一些科技天才

343
00:10:55,269 --> 00:10:57,859
没人确切知道影响程度

344
00:10:57,859 --> 00:10:59,578
这将构成多大威胁

345
00:10:59,578 --> 00:11:03,219
对长期内存需求和高带宽内存

346
00:11:03,219 --> 00:11:04,720
以及这些领域

347
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,340
关于这一点我要告诉你

348
00:11:07,340 --> 00:11:08,600
这就是先开枪

349
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:09,539
再问问题

350
00:11:09,539 --> 00:11:15,659
去年微芯的股价一度跌至六十多美元

351
00:11:15,659 --> 00:11:19,159
从六十美元飙升至四百七十美元

352
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,720
人们正在寻找卖出微芯的理由

353
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:22,440
他们说

354
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,049
请给我一个卖出微芯的理由

355
00:11:25,049 --> 00:11:26,929
因为很多人想获利了结

356
00:11:26,929 --> 00:11:27,529
大量基金

357
00:11:27,529 --> 00:11:29,929
许多对冲基金经理都想获利了结

358
00:11:29,929 --> 00:11:32,428
这只股票走势惊人荒谬

359
00:11:32,428 --> 00:11:38,320
在解放日剧情推动下从六十多美元飙升至四百七十水平

360
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:39,990
所以人们在寻找理由

361
00:11:39,990 --> 00:11:41,110
而在谷歌上

362
00:11:41,110 --> 00:11:41,750
麦克多格尔说

363
00:11:41,750 --> 00:11:41,950
哦

364
00:11:41,950 --> 00:11:42,870
我们推出了这个类似

365
00:11:42,870 --> 00:11:43,669
人们会抛售它

366
00:11:43,669 --> 00:11:46,899
即使他们不确定这对微芯长期影响

367
00:11:46,899 --> 00:11:47,759
先开枪

368
00:11:47,759 --> 00:11:50,700
股市先抛售再说

369
00:11:50,700 --> 00:11:51,539
先抛售再说

370
00:11:51,539 --> 00:11:54,129
没错这就是微芯现在的情况

371
00:11:54,129 --> 00:11:55,090
嗯

372
00:11:55,090 --> 00:11:57,009
从微芯来看

373
00:11:57,009 --> 00:11:57,789
数据令人惊叹

374
00:11:57,789 --> 00:12:00,309
未来至少两年数据依然惊人

375
00:12:00,309 --> 00:12:00,690
没错

376
00:12:00,690 --> 00:12:03,110
指2026和2027年

377
00:12:03,110 --> 00:12:03,990
2028年

378
00:12:03,990 --> 00:12:04,649
2029年

379
00:12:04,649 --> 00:12:06,000
拭目以待

380
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,860
这很大程度上取决于Meta、亚马逊、谷歌、特斯拉

381
00:12:09,860 --> 00:12:10,539
这些公司仍在

382
00:12:10,539 --> 00:12:12,419
疯狂投入

383
00:12:12,419 --> 00:12:12,799
没错

384
00:12:12,799 --> 00:12:16,220
仍在疯狂投入资本支出和内存需求将持续强劲

385
00:12:16,220 --> 00:12:17,840
甚至到2028、2029年

386
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,080
但我们将拭目以待

387
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,279
这也是为何这份报告依然非常疲弱

388
00:12:23,279 --> 00:12:24,600
然后是软银

389
00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,360
这只股票极其疲软

390
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,159
我说微软股票还弱吗

391
00:12:29,159 --> 00:12:31,539
从这一历史性高点

392
00:12:31,539 --> 00:12:35,059
它曾在此附近触及

393
00:12:35,059 --> 00:12:36,470
没错

394
00:12:36,590 --> 00:12:37,129
嗯

395
00:12:37,129 --> 00:12:39,309
股价已下跌约32%

396
00:12:39,309 --> 00:12:40,590
约32%

397
00:12:40,590 --> 00:12:41,710
从历史高点

398
00:12:41,710 --> 00:12:43,700
太弱了

399
00:12:43,700 --> 00:12:46,120
作为全球最大优质企业之一

400
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:47,840
这就是这个最令人惊叹的地方

401
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:48,480
并不是像

402
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:49,299
这完全是随机的

403
00:12:49,299 --> 00:12:50,669
这不可能是fubo吧

404
00:12:50,669 --> 00:12:53,178
然而天啊现在股价这么疲软

405
00:12:53,178 --> 00:12:55,479
在这段时间内排队人数下降了约7%

406
00:12:55,479 --> 00:12:57,259
标普500指数下跌了约4%

407
00:12:57,259 --> 00:12:57,418
现在

408
00:12:57,418 --> 00:12:58,938
微软拥有如此庞大的市值

409
00:12:58,938 --> 00:13:00,029
请记住

410
00:13:00,029 --> 00:13:01,669
如果微软没有大幅下跌

411
00:13:01,669 --> 00:13:03,669
排队人数不会下降这么多

412
00:13:03,669 --> 00:13:05,909
如果微软没有大幅下跌

413
00:13:05,909 --> 00:13:08,309
标普500指数也不会跌这么多

414
00:13:08,309 --> 00:13:12,669
这充分说明微软是重要组成部分

415
00:13:12,669 --> 00:13:15,350
这就是市场下跌的原因

416
00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:17,509
我知道还有其他事情发生

417
00:13:17,509 --> 00:13:18,610
但我要告诉你

418
00:13:18,610 --> 00:13:19,870
这是主要原因

419
00:13:19,870 --> 00:13:20,370
各位

420
00:13:20,370 --> 00:13:26,019
这是巨大原因，微软多年来一直是核心因素

421
00:13:26,019 --> 00:13:28,299
关于指数权重问题

422
00:13:28,299 --> 00:13:32,559
标普500指数非常有趣

423
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:33,519
那里到底发生了什么

424
00:13:33,519 --> 00:13:37,080
现在微软的股价我认为这是个好问题

425
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:42,970
如果必须在科技股中买入

426
00:13:42,970 --> 00:13:44,059
对啊

427
00:13:44,059 --> 00:13:44,919
哦

428
00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:47,000
具体来说是微软

429
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,720
但假设我不能买入微软

430
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:50,419
Meta如此疲软

431
00:13:50,419 --> 00:13:51,860
看看Meta的594股

432
00:13:51,860 --> 00:13:53,200
现在股价如此弱势

433
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:58,779
对啊如果必须买入微软且不选其他

434
00:13:58,779 --> 00:14:02,519
如果不是亚马逊的股票

435
00:14:02,519 --> 00:14:04,639
我会选择微软

436
00:14:04,639 --> 00:14:05,899
就是微软

437
00:14:05,899 --> 00:14:06,740
嗯是的

438
00:14:06,740 --> 00:14:07,500
如果我不能买入

439
00:14:07,500 --> 00:14:08,659
如果必须买入微软

440
00:14:08,659 --> 00:14:10,080
而且不是亚马逊

441
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,500
这些永远是我的首选

442
00:14:11,500 --> 00:14:11,899
对啊

443
00:14:11,899 --> 00:14:12,700
如果必须买入

444
00:14:12,700 --> 00:14:13,639
我会买微软

445
00:14:13,639 --> 00:14:15,269
微软啊

446
00:14:16,830 --> 00:14:19,269
之后大概会买英伟达

447
00:14:19,269 --> 00:14:20,668
之后如果被迫选择

448
00:14:20,668 --> 00:14:21,090
好吧

449
00:14:21,090 --> 00:14:21,529
好的

450
00:14:21,529 --> 00:14:23,149
那我们继续来看一些视频的反应吧

451
00:14:23,149 --> 00:14:24,370
今天这里有置顶评论

452
00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:25,330
我们有一个大型促销活动

453
00:14:25,330 --> 00:14:25,850
即将推出

454
00:14:25,850 --> 00:14:27,149
四千倍杠杆

455
00:14:27,149 --> 00:14:28,559
股票市场平静

456
00:14:28,559 --> 00:14:31,240
这就是比较功能和搜索功能

457
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,779
这就是如何运行高级预测和中期预测

458
00:14:34,779 --> 00:14:38,830
这是我日常用来做长期投资决策的工具

459
00:14:38,830 --> 00:14:40,309
对上市公司进行预测分析

460
00:14:40,309 --> 00:14:41,830
精准预判这些公司的发展方向

461
00:14:41,830 --> 00:14:42,950
这也是我经常收听的内容

462
00:14:42,950 --> 00:14:43,970
通过电话会议

463
00:14:43,970 --> 00:14:45,509
可以调节播放速度

464
00:14:45,509 --> 00:14:47,230
获取AI生成的会议记录

465
00:14:47,230 --> 00:14:47,590
全部

466
00:14:47,590 --> 00:14:48,669
这些都是优质内容兄弟

467
00:14:48,669 --> 00:14:49,970
这是深入的产品

468
00:14:49,970 --> 00:14:51,110
如果你是长期投资者

469
00:14:51,110 --> 00:14:52,379
这是必备产品

470
00:14:52,379 --> 00:14:53,679
所以那里会有置顶评论

471
00:14:53,679 --> 00:14:54,620
促销活动即将开始

472
00:14:54,620 --> 00:14:55,700
四月一日

473
00:14:55,700 --> 00:14:57,480
我们称之为愚人节促销

474
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:58,879
别当傻瓜参与促销

475
00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:01,419
四千倍杠杆再次来袭

476
00:15:01,419 --> 00:15:02,659
那里有置顶评论

477
00:15:02,659 --> 00:15:04,399
让我们来反应一些科技类视频

478
00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:04,600
是的

479
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:05,919
看看这惊心动魄的时刻

480
00:15:05,919 --> 00:15:06,690
我的意思是

481
00:15:06,690 --> 00:15:07,090
你知道的

482
00:15:07,090 --> 00:15:07,889
如果你仔细观察

483
00:15:07,889 --> 00:15:09,350
这是一次避险交易

484
00:15:09,350 --> 00:15:13,200
但纵观数十年的覆盖和科技领域

485
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:17,490
我的意思是我们将面临地缘政治宏观问题

486
00:15:17,490 --> 00:15:21,120
但我们的观点是如果看基本情形

487
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:25,779
这可能在几周内而非几个月内发生

488
00:15:25,779 --> 00:15:28,789
科技板块依然保持强劲

489
00:15:28,789 --> 00:15:34,379
我认为这次抛售反映了AI革命的投资机会

490
00:15:34,379 --> 00:15:38,259
当你看网络安全和软件这类公司时

491
00:15:38,259 --> 00:15:40,600
我们的观点是防御性板块

492
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,840
并且它们表现优异

493
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:44,799
这周我们将参加RSA网络安全大会

494
00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:45,568
看来你要去那里了

495
00:15:45,568 --> 00:15:46,928
说到网络安全

496
00:15:49,249 --> 00:15:51,129
以及该国的技术能力

497
00:15:51,129 --> 00:15:53,720
只需看看Striker的攻击事件

498
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:54,240
嗯

499
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:55,799
现在你在网络安全领域会购买什么

500
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:57,340
她是如何思考这些能力的

501
00:15:57,340 --> 00:15:58,360
我认为这就是我的观点

502
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:02,179
从技术防御角度看网络安全领域

503
00:16:02,179 --> 00:16:05,309
我继续认为AI正在重塑交易

504
00:16:05,309 --> 00:16:07,149
软件股已被过度炒作

505
00:16:07,149 --> 00:16:10,019
CrowdStrike市值或电力供应问题

506
00:16:10,019 --> 00:16:11,039
我认为检查点

507
00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:11,700
另一个要点

508
00:16:11,700 --> 00:16:12,940
我认为网络安全

509
00:16:12,940 --> 00:16:15,389
你知道本周我们会在RSA大会上

510
00:16:15,389 --> 00:16:16,730
它将跑赢大盘

511
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:18,230
你也需要考虑

512
00:16:18,230 --> 00:16:20,110
当发生这类事件时

513
00:16:20,110 --> 00:16:23,499
科技中哪些能超越网络安全

514
00:16:23,499 --> 00:16:26,259
我认为首要子板块将脱颖而出

515
00:16:26,259 --> 00:16:28,460
将在未来几周具体跑赢

516
00:16:28,460 --> 00:16:29,840
接下来几周和几个月

517
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:31,899
接近其他任何软件

518
00:16:31,899 --> 00:16:33,720
或者这真的很酷

519
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,100
继续认为AI交易趋势

520
00:16:36,100 --> 00:16:40,820
软件抛售仍是职业生涯中最割裂的交易

521
00:16:40,820 --> 00:16:44,000
最近几周软件已跑赢

522
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:45,720
这回到人类中心主义

523
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,549
自从他们完成底部调整后

524
00:16:48,549 --> 00:16:51,330
这就是我们的Salesforce服务现状

525
00:16:51,330 --> 00:16:52,370
我观察甲骨文

526
00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:53,350
微软

527
00:16:53,350 --> 00:16:53,990
麦伦

528
00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:54,730
我的看法是

529
00:16:54,730 --> 00:16:55,809
如果你放眼望去

530
00:16:55,809 --> 00:16:57,730
这仍是第四次工业革命

531
00:16:57,730 --> 00:16:58,830
这一点不会改变

532
00:16:58,830 --> 00:17:02,289
由于当前紧张的环境

533
00:17:02,289 --> 00:17:05,549
回顾过去几年的时刻

534
00:17:05,549 --> 00:17:07,598
回溯到一年前的解放日

535
00:17:07,598 --> 00:17:14,199
科技尤其是软件和网络安全将持续引领市场

536
00:17:14,199 --> 00:17:16,420
这些是最割裂的领域

537
00:17:16,420 --> 00:17:17,839
这也是为什么我们要超越这些

538
00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:18,859
现在山姆的情况如何

539
00:17:18,859 --> 00:17:20,240
因为他们仍在持续抛售

540
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,380
美光上周财报表现亮眼

541
00:17:22,380 --> 00:17:25,769
股价暴跌且视频股数月横盘

542
00:17:25,769 --> 00:17:28,009
看来如果我观察

543
00:17:28,009 --> 00:17:29,609
我们一直在努力

544
00:17:29,609 --> 00:17:32,950
团队关注英伟达GTC需求

545
00:17:32,950 --> 00:17:36,009
十二比一的AI革命供需

546
00:17:36,009 --> 00:17:39,059
现在你看到的

547
00:17:39,059 --> 00:17:41,079
半导体是避风港

548
00:17:41,079 --> 00:17:42,740
风险规避交易在那里

549
00:17:42,740 --> 00:17:45,619
但这就是英伟达、美光、AMD

550
00:17:45,619 --> 00:17:47,420
我觉得这些名字你仍然需要持有

551
00:17:47,420 --> 00:17:48,200
你看啊

552
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:48,980
我们才进入第

553
00:17:48,980 --> 00:17:50,279
十年布局的第三年

554
00:17:50,279 --> 00:17:52,339
我认为在这些环境中

555
00:17:52,339 --> 00:17:55,199
这些惊心动魄的环境中很容易陷入困境

556
00:17:55,199 --> 00:17:58,618
或许你知道一些这种末日论观点

557
00:17:58,618 --> 00:18:00,400
当你观察科技行业

558
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:01,920
现在正是买入时机

559
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:02,819
山姆在软件领域

560
00:18:02,819 --> 00:18:07,319
但你需要采取杠铃策略，兼顾防御和进攻

561
00:18:07,319 --> 00:18:08,589
这才是正确玩法

562
00:18:08,589 --> 00:18:12,349
让我暂时扮演反对者的角色来反驳D的论点

563
00:18:12,349 --> 00:18:12,789
没错

564
00:18:12,789 --> 00:18:15,029
他提到十年布局没错

565
00:18:15,029 --> 00:18:16,059
公道

566
00:18:16,059 --> 00:18:17,339
完全有可能

567
00:18:17,339 --> 00:18:19,900
但这里需要反驳

568
00:18:19,900 --> 00:18:21,019
D的刀刃

569
00:18:21,019 --> 00:18:26,700
假设未来一两年出现严重经济衰退

570
00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:28,348
或许不会发生

571
00:18:28,348 --> 00:18:29,209
希望不会发生

572
00:18:29,209 --> 00:18:30,348
希望经济形势良好

573
00:18:30,348 --> 00:18:33,128
但假设这种情景真的出现

574
00:18:33,128 --> 00:18:35,288
这就是我们需要讨论风险的地方

575
00:18:35,288 --> 00:18:36,019
好的

576
00:18:36,019 --> 00:18:39,059
这对十年布局意味着什么

577
00:18:39,299 --> 00:18:45,160
这意味着28、29年布局将大幅回调

578
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:45,740
没错

579
00:18:45,740 --> 00:18:48,269
了解这些公司会暂停一切行动

580
00:18:48,269 --> 00:18:50,769
但会大幅放缓进度

581
00:18:50,769 --> 00:18:51,829
这才是重大风险所在

582
00:18:51,829 --> 00:18:54,269
为什么他们会这么做呢？比如Meta、亚马逊

583
00:18:54,269 --> 00:18:55,650
他们这么做的原因有二

584
00:18:55,650 --> 00:18:58,230
一是股价持续承压

585
00:18:58,230 --> 00:19:01,650
二是营收开始不及分析师预期

586
00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:05,750
并报告更低的营收增长

587
00:19:05,750 --> 00:19:07,500
如果经济形势恶化

588
00:19:07,500 --> 00:19:09,660
它们将大幅削减资本开支

589
00:19:09,660 --> 00:19:10,700
甚至可能从27年开始

590
00:19:10,700 --> 00:19:12,799
但主要在28、29年

591
00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:14,380
这对英伟达意味着什么

592
00:19:14,380 --> 00:19:16,029
这对美光意味着什么

593
00:19:16,029 --> 00:19:17,630
失去定价权

594
00:19:17,630 --> 00:19:22,529
因为突然需求不再需要以当前速度扩张

595
00:19:22,529 --> 00:19:23,670
它们仍在扩张中

596
00:19:23,670 --> 00:19:25,470
这对AMD又意味着什么

597
00:19:25,470 --> 00:19:26,869
它们也会受到冲击

598
00:19:26,869 --> 00:19:28,089
AMD唯一的优势

599
00:19:28,089 --> 00:19:28,869
为什么他们不会被击中

600
00:19:28,869 --> 00:19:29,950
我试图向人们解释这一点

601
00:19:29,950 --> 00:19:31,509
我希望所有人都能理解这一点

602
00:19:31,509 --> 00:19:32,470
我觉得你们大多数人应该明白

603
00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:33,450
但有些人会说

604
00:19:33,450 --> 00:19:34,349
嗯

605
00:19:34,349 --> 00:19:35,789
当amd和b被击中时

606
00:19:35,789 --> 00:19:37,829
就像英伟达和美光一样

607
00:19:37,829 --> 00:19:38,490
不

608
00:19:38,490 --> 00:19:39,730
相差甚远

609
00:19:39,730 --> 00:19:45,329
为什么amd至今仍未显著受益

610
00:19:45,329 --> 00:19:46,470
从这一布局中

611
00:19:46,470 --> 00:19:48,529
而其他公司早已如此

612
00:19:48,529 --> 00:19:51,339
amd即将开始

613
00:19:51,339 --> 00:19:53,160
即将开始受益

614
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,660
因此amd损失远不及英伟达

615
00:19:56,660 --> 00:20:00,130
那些不可持续的高利润率

616
00:20:00,130 --> 00:20:03,750
以及这些长期受益于周期的公司

617
00:20:03,750 --> 00:20:05,750
这就是为什么amd也会受冲击

618
00:20:05,750 --> 00:20:08,269
但他们不会像英伟达或美光那样严重

619
00:20:08,269 --> 00:20:12,049
当这些公司失去定价权和利润率时

620
00:20:12,049 --> 00:20:14,759
对他们影响巨大

621
00:20:14,759 --> 00:20:18,700
而美光和英伟达当前的利润率

622
00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:20,869
是我们从未见过的

623
00:20:20,869 --> 00:20:23,490
这意味着不可持续

624
00:20:23,490 --> 00:20:25,579
对吧，当你看到

625
00:20:25,579 --> 00:20:29,680
当芯片公司报告出离谱的利润率时

626
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,779
他们怎么可能，这不可持续

627
00:20:31,779 --> 00:20:32,539
长期来看

628
00:20:32,539 --> 00:20:35,519
每个周期利润率最终都会暴跌

629
00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:36,859
我还没看到例外

630
00:20:36,859 --> 00:20:38,279
从未有过例外

631
00:20:38,279 --> 00:20:40,009
这就是风险

632
00:20:40,009 --> 00:20:42,159
每个人都必须理解这个风险

633
00:20:42,159 --> 00:20:42,858
好的

634
00:20:42,858 --> 00:20:43,878
这可能不会发生

635
00:20:43,878 --> 00:20:45,419
希望经济形势很好

636
00:20:45,419 --> 00:20:47,118
亚马逊营收持续增长

637
00:20:47,118 --> 00:20:48,878
我们的营收不仅增长

638
00:20:48,878 --> 00:20:50,650
而是快速增长

639
00:20:50,650 --> 00:20:52,690
甚至比以往更快

640
00:20:52,690 --> 00:20:54,690
希望这些公司能继续保持

641
00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:56,380
如果能的话

642
00:20:56,380 --> 00:20:57,099
一切都没问题

643
00:20:57,099 --> 00:20:57,940
我们都没事

644
00:20:57,940 --> 00:20:59,839
如果营收不及预期

645
00:20:59,839 --> 00:21:01,779
股价开始大幅下跌

646
00:21:01,779 --> 00:21:03,650
将面临大幅削减

647
00:21:03,650 --> 00:21:04,990
可能从27年开始

648
00:21:04,990 --> 00:21:07,289
但肯定在28、29年

649
00:21:07,289 --> 00:21:10,619
然后你知道英伟达会从这里继续下跌

650
00:21:10,619 --> 00:21:13,190
你知道斯德哥尔摩指数从125点开始

651
00:21:13,190 --> 00:21:13,369
嗯

652
00:21:13,369 --> 00:21:14,029
可能还会更低

653
00:21:14,029 --> 00:21:15,849
但125点基本稳了

654
00:21:15,849 --> 00:21:17,069
如果这样的话

655
00:21:17,069 --> 00:21:21,000
微软股价可能跌破200美元

656
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,640
而AMD大概会被卡在250到350区间

657
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:25,960
如果真的发生的话

658
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,670
但我们会看到我们会看到

659
00:21:27,670 --> 00:21:28,549
但这确实有风险

660
00:21:28,549 --> 00:21:29,970
就像你必须理解这一点

661
00:21:29,970 --> 00:21:31,670
这也是我频道一直强调的

662
00:21:31,670 --> 00:21:33,650
就是解释不同情景

663
00:21:33,650 --> 00:21:36,359
因为很多时候我发现投资者

664
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:37,859
最大的错误

665
00:21:37,859 --> 00:21:41,929
他们只押注一种情景

666
00:21:42,409 --> 00:21:43,828
你必须设定基准情景

667
00:21:43,828 --> 00:21:44,808
你预期的情况

668
00:21:44,808 --> 00:21:48,648
但也要考虑熊市和牛市情景

669
00:21:48,648 --> 00:21:50,648
这就是1000x股票网

670
00:21:50,648 --> 00:21:53,579
当你运行预测时该怎么做

671
00:21:53,579 --> 00:21:55,799
我们提供中期和高级预测

672
00:21:55,799 --> 00:21:58,200
让你运行基准情景

673
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,779
乐观情景和悲观情景

674
00:22:00,779 --> 00:22:04,400
因为你必须假设情况可能比预期好得多

675
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,319
也可能比预期差得多

676
00:22:06,319 --> 00:22:09,250
如果你理解结果范围

677
00:22:09,250 --> 00:22:09,670
你

678
00:22:09,670 --> 00:22:10,089
就不会

679
00:22:10,089 --> 00:22:10,910
然后恐慌

680
00:22:10,910 --> 00:22:12,789
当市场走势不如预期时

681
00:22:12,789 --> 00:22:14,650
当这种情况不发生时

682
00:22:14,650 --> 00:22:15,549
当这种情况不发生时

683
00:22:15,549 --> 00:22:19,509
所以当我用AMD 3000x计算时

684
00:22:19,509 --> 00:22:21,410
我有一个悲观情景

685
00:22:21,410 --> 00:22:22,750
有一个基准情景

686
00:22:22,750 --> 00:22:24,089
还有一个乐观情景

687
00:22:24,089 --> 00:22:24,750
对吧

688
00:22:24,750 --> 00:22:26,410
这才是关键

689
00:22:26,410 --> 00:22:27,670
问题在于

690
00:22:27,670 --> 00:22:31,089
人们似乎不认为会出问题

691
00:22:31,089 --> 00:22:31,970
兄弟啊

692
00:22:31,970 --> 00:22:32,349
你得

693
00:22:32,349 --> 00:22:33,309
你得考虑

694
00:22:33,309 --> 00:22:34,420
如果出现问题会怎样

695
00:22:34,420 --> 00:22:36,269
这对你的股票意味着什么

696
00:22:36,269 --> 00:22:38,269
这对你的投资组合意味着什么

697
00:22:38,269 --> 00:22:38,869
正如我们所见

698
00:22:38,869 --> 00:22:39,269
正如你所知

699
00:22:39,269 --> 00:22:40,450
全面呈现绿色

700
00:22:40,450 --> 00:22:41,549
WTI原油在吗

701
00:22:41,549 --> 00:22:41,910
就是这样

702
00:22:41,910 --> 00:22:42,549
它回来了

703
00:22:42,549 --> 00:22:43,690
尽管已是90岁

704
00:22:43,690 --> 00:22:45,250
所以要密切关注

705
00:22:45,250 --> 00:22:47,329
同时紧盯股市动态

706
00:22:47,329 --> 00:22:49,969
但这才是最关键的关联

707
00:22:49,969 --> 00:22:51,669
似乎人人都清楚

708
00:22:51,669 --> 00:22:53,888
油价下跌股市上涨 简单明了

709
00:22:53,888 --> 00:22:54,989
再来一个例子

710
00:22:54,989 --> 00:22:55,950
股市下跌

711
00:22:55,950 --> 00:22:57,029
特朗普抛售

712
00:22:57,029 --> 00:22:57,509
是的

713
00:22:57,509 --> 00:22:58,130
相当简单

714
00:22:58,130 --> 00:23:02,288
因为今日城市报道所谓的特朗普抛售效应仍持续

715
00:23:02,288 --> 00:23:02,528
没错

716
00:23:02,528 --> 00:23:03,368
我赞同这个观点

717
00:23:03,368 --> 00:23:06,148
我认为特朗普抛售效应

718
00:23:06,148 --> 00:23:10,880
主要体现在原油市场

719
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:16,289
过去八小时交易带中已明显注入乐观情绪

720
00:23:16,289 --> 00:23:16,869
确实如此

721
00:23:16,869 --> 00:23:18,049
很可能

722
00:23:18,049 --> 00:23:20,890
你正在寻找的是一种信心

723
00:23:20,890 --> 00:23:24,809
需要找到验证乐观情绪的证据

724
00:23:24,809 --> 00:23:26,710
显然需某种形式的解决方案

725
00:23:26,710 --> 00:23:30,839
因此短期内你会看到成交量开始萎缩

726
00:23:30,839 --> 00:23:36,210
我们昨日已见此现象 此次又临近季度末

727
00:23:36,210 --> 00:23:38,849
可能导致成交量进一步减少

728
00:23:38,849 --> 00:23:41,720
因此需寻找战术性布局机会

729
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,670
昨日我在黄金中发现了一个

730
00:23:43,670 --> 00:23:45,049
我现在真的认为

731
00:23:45,049 --> 00:23:48,589
在等待期确认乐观信号时

732
00:23:48,589 --> 00:23:50,289
这才是最佳策略

733
00:23:50,289 --> 00:23:50,589
珍妮

734
00:23:50,589 --> 00:23:56,650
能看出企业试图预判市场走势

735
00:23:56,650 --> 00:24:00,319
或许可以开始超越短期考量

736
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:05,130
摩根大通交易部门宣布结束战术看空立场

737
00:24:05,130 --> 00:24:06,869
转为中性持仓

738
00:24:06,869 --> 00:24:08,390
仅调整至中性

739
00:24:08,390 --> 00:24:09,029
然而

740
00:24:09,029 --> 00:24:13,459
这确实表明

741
00:24:13,459 --> 00:24:15,479
这种谨慎乐观态度

742
00:24:15,479 --> 00:24:20,359
近期或将出现解决方案

743
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:26,240
而非持续恶化导致油价再度飙升

744
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,680
你清楚这将如何影响股市

745
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:28,980
没错

746
00:24:28,980 --> 00:24:31,809
当我们分析市场博弈时

747
00:24:31,809 --> 00:24:33,230
并按此方式操作

748
00:24:33,230 --> 00:24:34,930
我已应对过去几周

749
00:24:34,930 --> 00:24:38,119
我确实尽全力了

750
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,039
忽略政治因素，关注经济规律

751
00:24:41,039 --> 00:24:42,660
如果你遵循经济规律

752
00:24:42,660 --> 00:24:43,619
那就是你要去的方向

753
00:24:43,619 --> 00:24:46,048
因为当前的经济阵痛确实存在

754
00:24:46,048 --> 00:24:47,628
或潜在的经济阵痛

755
00:24:47,628 --> 00:24:48,808
我很高兴你用了'潜在'这个词

756
00:24:48,808 --> 00:24:53,578
因为现在还不足以看到显著的经济痛苦

757
00:24:53,578 --> 00:24:55,538
显然要去加油站花四美元

758
00:24:55,538 --> 00:24:57,699
这就是汽油现在的价格

759
00:24:57,699 --> 00:24:59,109
如果你是柴油车用户

760
00:24:59,109 --> 00:25:00,609
价格会更高得多

761
00:25:00,609 --> 00:25:00,910
没错

762
00:25:00,910 --> 00:25:02,150
当然在某些州确实如此

763
00:25:02,150 --> 00:25:05,250
油价真的飙升到每加仑15或18美元

764
00:25:05,250 --> 00:25:08,269
潜在的经济痛苦将是毁灭性的

765
00:25:08,269 --> 00:25:09,910
这将对所有人造成毁灭

766
00:25:09,910 --> 00:25:12,089
这对中东地区每个人都是毁灭性的

767
00:25:12,089 --> 00:25:13,569
这对亚洲地区每个人都是毁灭性的

768
00:25:13,569 --> 00:25:15,329
这对美国每个人都是毁灭性的

769
00:25:15,329 --> 00:25:19,349
当我想到塔克或特朗普的转向

770
00:25:19,349 --> 00:25:20,220
或者任何其他事

771
00:25:20,220 --> 00:25:21,779
我更倾向于这样思考

772
00:25:21,779 --> 00:25:23,319
遵循经济规律

773
00:25:23,319 --> 00:25:25,519
因为最终他会这么做

774
00:25:25,519 --> 00:25:25,839
好的

775
00:25:25,839 --> 00:25:27,700
先别急着行动

776
00:25:27,700 --> 00:25:28,140
稍等片刻

777
00:25:28,140 --> 00:25:29,099
听着

778
00:25:29,099 --> 00:25:31,200
我不喜欢'毁灭性'这个词

779
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:31,859
哦

780
00:25:31,859 --> 00:25:32,480
你知道的

781
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,299
你得在加油时多花钱

782
00:25:34,299 --> 00:25:35,450
你知道的

783
00:25:35,450 --> 00:25:36,589
卡车司机们要多花钱

784
00:25:36,589 --> 00:25:37,349
这真是毁灭性的

785
00:25:37,349 --> 00:25:38,009
讲完了

786
00:25:38,009 --> 00:25:39,910
整个经济都崩溃了

787
00:25:40,269 --> 00:25:40,670
兄弟

788
00:25:40,670 --> 00:25:42,369
如果经济如此疲软

789
00:25:42,369 --> 00:25:43,970
油价就会上涨

790
00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:46,388
一切都会被摧毁

791
00:25:46,388 --> 00:25:48,489
我们原本就没有强劲经济

792
00:25:48,489 --> 00:25:50,509
我们经济极其脆弱

793
00:25:50,509 --> 00:25:51,528
非常疲软

794
00:25:51,528 --> 00:25:53,568
可怜的弱经济

795
00:25:53,568 --> 00:25:54,068
就像

796
00:25:54,068 --> 00:25:55,220
这简直荒谬

797
00:25:55,220 --> 00:25:58,079
像这样一个小因素

798
00:25:58,079 --> 00:25:58,750
哦

799
00:25:58,750 --> 00:26:00,329
每个人的油价都上涨了

800
00:26:00,329 --> 00:26:02,049
我们被什么搞定了

801
00:26:02,049 --> 00:26:03,230
这太疯狂了老兄

802
00:26:03,230 --> 00:26:04,470
就是那种疯狂的样子

803
00:26:04,470 --> 00:26:06,210
这肯定会有影响

804
00:26:06,210 --> 00:26:07,289
但破坏性极大

805
00:26:07,289 --> 00:26:08,289
她用了'毁灭性'这个词

806
00:26:08,289 --> 00:26:09,230
有多少次了

807
00:26:09,230 --> 00:26:09,569
就像

808
00:26:09,569 --> 00:26:10,549
这简直荒谬

809
00:26:10,549 --> 00:26:12,549
他最后说

810
00:26:12,549 --> 00:26:16,329
我认为美国最好的经济政策是什么

811
00:26:16,329 --> 00:26:16,890
哦我不知道

812
00:26:16,890 --> 00:26:18,730
我觉得应该关注股市和债市

813
00:26:18,730 --> 00:26:22,159
我说这些市场已经证明是触发因素

814
00:26:22,159 --> 00:26:24,558
这无关紧要对吧

815
00:26:24,558 --> 00:26:25,199
不是这样

816
00:26:25,199 --> 00:26:26,638
它们并不相同因为

817
00:26:26,638 --> 00:26:27,638
正如我所说

818
00:26:27,638 --> 00:26:31,180
现在还不能据此判断经济

819
00:26:31,180 --> 00:26:33,500
但你可以根据股市走势判断

820
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:36,180
局势正在 unraveling，banyil 正在逐渐远离

821
00:26:36,180 --> 00:26:36,500
他说

822
00:26:36,500 --> 00:26:38,920
是经济学不是经济对吧

823
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,940
当前的经济形势对股市是毁灭性的

824
00:26:42,940 --> 00:26:43,299
没错

825
00:26:43,299 --> 00:26:45,319
如果油价突然涨到180美元

826
00:26:45,319 --> 00:26:46,388
持续一段时间的话

827
00:26:46,388 --> 00:26:48,568
在180美元价位的经济影响

828
00:26:48,568 --> 00:26:49,548
我说好吧

829
00:26:49,548 --> 00:26:51,229
但你知道这被抛出来了

830
00:26:51,229 --> 00:26:52,209
比如115美元

831
00:26:52,209 --> 00:26:52,989
我只是在说

832
00:26:52,989 --> 00:26:54,940
你要关注经济形势并说

833
00:26:54,940 --> 00:26:55,339
好吧

834
00:26:55,339 --> 00:26:56,220
这样合理吗

835
00:26:56,220 --> 00:26:57,140
这家公司怎么运作

836
00:26:57,140 --> 00:26:57,940
那家公司怎么运作

837
00:26:57,940 --> 00:26:59,160
然后影响到债市

838
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:00,579
这里的经济逻辑是怎样的呢

839
00:27:00,579 --> 00:27:02,000
会引发巨大通胀

840
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:02,599
这很糟糕

841
00:27:02,599 --> 00:27:03,480
可以这么说

842
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:04,880
我真没在谈经济

843
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,140
我在谈经济学

844
00:27:06,140 --> 00:27:07,480
从个股角度分析

845
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:08,640
从公司层面来看

846
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,400
这就是股价反映的内容

847
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,920
我的观点是已经出现收益率回调

848
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,420
这有点让人不安

849
00:27:14,420 --> 00:27:14,880
是的

850
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,160
显然你在股市经历了大幅回调

851
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:18,940
这变得非常令人不安

852
00:27:18,940 --> 00:27:20,039
有人可能会说

853
00:27:20,039 --> 00:27:23,200
我们并未真正、技术性或历史性地严重超卖

854
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,299
你应该明白

855
00:27:24,299 --> 00:27:25,720
我说道

856
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:33,029
真正重要的指标只有位于宾夕法尼亚大道1600号的那个

857
00:27:33,029 --> 00:27:34,759
对于这个市场

858
00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:35,900
观察者和技术分析师

859
00:27:35,900 --> 00:27:37,240
我们已经足够超卖

860
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,519
这就是特朗普所关注的

861
00:27:39,519 --> 00:27:40,740
正如你所知

862
00:27:40,740 --> 00:27:42,039
正如今天再次被提及的

863
00:27:42,039 --> 00:27:43,640
城市取得了胜利

864
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:44,099
是的

865
00:27:44,099 --> 00:27:44,480
这里有一个

866
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,019
这里有个有趣的冷知识

867
00:27:46,019 --> 00:27:47,480
当我们谈论经济影响时

868
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:47,960
当然我

869
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,500
应该去看收益影响

870
00:27:49,500 --> 00:27:54,180
标普500成分股的盈利数据在过去一个月被上调

871
00:27:54,180 --> 00:27:56,200
你知道这有点令人困惑

872
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,500
这有点让人摸不着头脑

873
00:27:57,500 --> 00:28:01,759
自月初以来，今年盈利预测已上调2%

874
00:28:01,759 --> 00:28:03,579
而这确实提振了市场

875
00:28:03,579 --> 00:28:04,200
确实如此

876
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:05,059
这就是原因

877
00:28:05,059 --> 00:28:06,640
我们并未因油价下跌而大幅下挫

878
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:11,089
目前标普500的市盈率前向市盈率已达20倍

879
00:28:11,089 --> 00:28:14,089
年初时我们曾过度担忧

880
00:28:14,089 --> 00:28:16,809
随着该市盈率逼近23倍

881
00:28:16,809 --> 00:28:19,250
当前20倍市盈率伴随良好增长预期

882
00:28:19,250 --> 00:28:24,000
但最终增长可能因我们的情况而下降

883
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:24,539
事实上

884
00:28:24,539 --> 00:28:26,500
看到这种持续对抗

885
00:28:26,500 --> 00:28:27,849
我们无法排除这种可能

886
00:28:27,875 --> 00:28:29,369
斯科特你两次提到

887
00:28:29,369 --> 00:28:30,410
谨慎乐观

888
00:28:30,410 --> 00:28:31,450
我充满信心

889
00:28:31,450 --> 00:28:33,289
我在周一增持了股票

890
00:28:33,289 --> 00:28:34,299
我买入了eBay

891
00:28:34,299 --> 00:28:35,720
但保持谨慎

892
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,440
我们有四五百名海军陆战队员即将部署

893
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,519
第82空降师即将抵达

894
00:28:41,519 --> 00:28:43,720
这位总统不喜欢虚张声势

895
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,579
他要面对一个绝不退让的国家

896
00:28:47,579 --> 00:28:48,880
对任何挑衅都不会妥协

897
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:50,180
我们尚未度过危机

898
00:28:50,180 --> 00:28:50,480
没错

899
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:50,700
不

900
00:28:50,700 --> 00:28:51,220
这很清楚

901
00:28:51,220 --> 00:28:51,579
乔什

902
00:28:51,579 --> 00:28:53,180
我在想你到底

903
00:28:53,180 --> 00:28:54,440
你怎么看待事物

904
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,480
从本质上讲似乎很简单

905
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:57,640
是的

906
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,400
你能做的最重要的事

907
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,170
此刻观看这个视频的每个人

908
00:29:04,190 --> 00:29:06,109
不要指望像

909
00:29:06,109 --> 00:29:06,369
哦

910
00:29:06,369 --> 00:29:07,269
事情已经定局

911
00:29:07,269 --> 00:29:08,150
情况更好了

912
00:29:08,150 --> 00:29:09,309
哦团队里有人这么说

913
00:29:09,309 --> 00:29:09,950
一切都没问题

914
00:29:09,950 --> 00:29:11,009
对吧嗯

915
00:29:11,009 --> 00:29:11,710
不要抱太大希望

916
00:29:11,710 --> 00:29:13,519
情况正在恶化

917
00:29:14,359 --> 00:29:15,849
什么都别指望

918
00:29:15,849 --> 00:29:17,690
坚持你的计划

919
00:29:17,690 --> 00:29:21,750
投资那些未来几年将表现卓越的伟大公司

920
00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:23,119
对吧嗯

921
00:29:23,119 --> 00:29:25,440
但不要过于乐观

922
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:25,680
那个

923
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:25,880
哦

924
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,119
已经触底了

925
00:29:27,119 --> 00:29:29,019
或者我们接近底部

926
00:29:29,019 --> 00:29:29,700
或者

927
00:29:29,700 --> 00:29:30,160
你知道的

928
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:31,160
我们不会再跌了

929
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,460
或者是的

930
00:29:32,460 --> 00:29:33,200
我们有像

931
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:33,839
不要不要

932
00:29:33,839 --> 00:29:34,279
你知道的

933
00:29:34,279 --> 00:29:35,119
不要不要

934
00:29:35,119 --> 00:29:35,900
别玩这种游戏

935
00:29:35,900 --> 00:29:36,279
兄弟

936
00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:38,980
因为事情可能随时变化

937
00:29:38,980 --> 00:29:39,638
嗯

938
00:29:39,638 --> 00:29:40,618
值得关注的

939
00:29:40,618 --> 00:29:45,970
并非轻视或简化冲突

940
00:29:45,970 --> 00:29:49,559
但从投资或交易角度

941
00:29:49,559 --> 00:29:50,740
我们就是这样做的

942
00:29:50,740 --> 00:29:52,730
我们就是这样分析的

943
00:29:52,730 --> 00:29:56,609
观察石油走势似乎最为关键

944
00:29:56,609 --> 00:30:02,660
或许这是当前股市最重要因素

945
00:30:03,259 --> 00:30:07,710
我完全同意你说的 程序刚运行六分钟

946
00:30:07,710 --> 00:30:09,009
斯科特

947
00:30:09,009 --> 00:30:11,069
你一直在抛出真相

948
00:30:11,069 --> 00:30:13,029
我不是来奉承老师的

949
00:30:13,029 --> 00:30:16,859
但这是日常中最重要的一件事

950
00:30:16,859 --> 00:30:18,140
如果你是长期投资者

951
00:30:18,140 --> 00:30:19,059
这影响不会太大

952
00:30:19,059 --> 00:30:20,619
但如果你在交易这个市场

953
00:30:20,619 --> 00:30:23,599
石油红色股票筛选周期

954
00:30:23,599 --> 00:30:24,180
其实并非如此

955
00:30:24,180 --> 00:30:24,920
没有任何细微差别

956
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:25,900
这就是现状

957
00:30:25,900 --> 00:30:26,839
这是第一点

958
00:30:26,839 --> 00:30:27,599
第二点

959
00:30:27,599 --> 00:30:28,579
你提到的另一件事

960
00:30:28,579 --> 00:30:30,079
斯科特，珍妮说错了

961
00:30:30,079 --> 00:30:31,130
而你是对的

962
00:30:31,130 --> 00:30:33,170
我们还不清楚影响

963
00:30:33,170 --> 00:30:35,049
我们知道这是负面影响

964
00:30:35,049 --> 00:30:39,210
但我们不清楚油价对经济的具体影响程度

965
00:30:39,210 --> 00:30:43,490
六个月后我们有GDP第三次修订时再说

966
00:30:43,490 --> 00:30:44,529
斯科特说得正确

967
00:30:44,529 --> 00:30:45,670
这是股市

968
00:30:45,670 --> 00:30:47,589
如果你认为斯科特·佩桑

969
00:30:47,589 --> 00:30:49,890
不会致电椭圆形办公室说

970
00:30:49,890 --> 00:30:50,849
总统先生

971
00:30:50,849 --> 00:30:52,039
今天是星期五

972
00:30:52,039 --> 00:30:55,200
标普500刚刚跌破200日移动平均线

973
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:59,289
自2025年5月以来首次跌破

974
00:30:59,289 --> 00:31:01,430
我甚至不认为特朗普会问

975
00:31:01,430 --> 00:31:02,679
我是否在意

976
00:31:02,679 --> 00:31:04,058
我认为这是本能反应

977
00:31:04,058 --> 00:31:06,919
对我来说并不完全意外

978
00:31:06,919 --> 00:31:11,348
总统必须应对实时新闻和信息

979
00:31:11,348 --> 00:31:12,949
不仅仅是地缘政治

980
00:31:12,949 --> 00:31:13,608
还有经济问题

981
00:31:13,608 --> 00:31:16,679
他无法随时掌握经济数据

982
00:31:16,679 --> 00:31:17,838
他有自己的观点

983
00:31:17,838 --> 00:31:20,138
但他面前就是股市行情

984
00:31:20,138 --> 00:31:23,519
我们知道这个政府关注股市动向

985
00:31:23,519 --> 00:31:25,420
当股市上涨时

986
00:31:25,420 --> 00:31:27,240
他们视其为某种成绩单

987
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,339
所以我并不完全意外

988
00:31:29,339 --> 00:31:30,289
当时出现过

989
00:31:30,289 --> 00:31:30,890
嗯

990
00:31:30,890 --> 00:31:36,009
收盘后在跌破200日均线当天发推

991
00:31:36,009 --> 00:31:37,250
这纯属偶然

992
00:31:37,250 --> 00:31:40,190
嗯，我认为持续的讨论

993
00:31:40,190 --> 00:31:40,970
或许会达成停火协议

994
00:31:40,970 --> 00:31:42,450
这里有一个15点计划

995
00:31:42,450 --> 00:31:45,839
只要市场保持上涨态势

996
00:31:45,839 --> 00:31:46,299
嗯

997
00:31:46,299 --> 00:31:47,740
若新闻流朝着这个方向

998
00:31:47,740 --> 00:31:50,539
你可能会继续看到这个问题

999
00:31:50,539 --> 00:31:53,250
看看反弹的力度

1000
00:31:53,250 --> 00:31:55,630
你知道今天市场领涨板块是什么

1001
00:31:55,630 --> 00:31:59,200
唯一上涨1%或以上的板块是公用事业

1002
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,059
你知道第二名是材料板块

1003
00:32:01,059 --> 00:32:01,440
是的

1004
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,700
你知道它是第二名

1005
00:32:02,700 --> 00:32:04,950
医疗保健与材料板块

1006
00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:08,519
这不是2025年的环境

1007
00:32:08,519 --> 00:32:11,298
问题是人们不知道现在是什么时候

1008
00:32:11,298 --> 00:32:13,118
他们希望是24年

1009
00:32:13,118 --> 00:32:13,980
25年

1010
00:32:13,980 --> 00:32:15,779
他们希望由

1011
00:32:15,779 --> 00:32:16,539
呃

1012
00:32:16,539 --> 00:32:17,180
嗯

1013
00:32:17,180 --> 00:32:17,779
周期性板块

1014
00:32:17,779 --> 00:32:19,019
他们希望由科技引领

1015
00:32:19,019 --> 00:32:20,809
但这不是金融板块

1016
00:32:20,809 --> 00:32:22,089
今天最差的板块

1017
00:32:22,089 --> 00:32:23,569
它们实际上是唯一下跌的板块

1018
00:32:23,569 --> 00:32:24,549
当你看到

1019
00:32:24,549 --> 00:32:26,618
你知道他在这里的观点

1020
00:32:26,618 --> 00:32:27,378
你知道像

1021
00:32:27,378 --> 00:32:28,838
这为什么重要呢

1022
00:32:28,838 --> 00:32:30,619
他在谈论

1023
00:32:30,619 --> 00:32:32,140
你知道医疗保健领涨

1024
00:32:32,140 --> 00:32:32,900
他刚才在说

1025
00:32:32,900 --> 00:32:34,119
这里还有哪些板块领涨

1026
00:32:34,119 --> 00:32:35,079
材料板块啊

1027
00:32:35,079 --> 00:32:38,179
只有上涨1%或以上的公用事业板块

1028
00:32:38,179 --> 00:32:38,838
公用事业

1029
00:32:38,838 --> 00:32:40,519
公用事业对吧就像

1030
00:32:40,519 --> 00:32:41,118
这什么意思

1031
00:32:41,118 --> 00:32:42,118
如果你现在在看这个

1032
00:32:42,118 --> 00:32:42,499
我就像

1033
00:32:42,499 --> 00:32:42,818
好吧

1034
00:32:42,818 --> 00:32:43,199
像

1035
00:32:43,199 --> 00:32:43,959
这个观点是什么

1036
00:32:43,959 --> 00:32:45,159
他在这里在讲什么

1037
00:32:45,159 --> 00:32:46,278
这意味着

1038
00:32:46,278 --> 00:32:48,159
因为这些是表现最好的板块

1039
00:32:48,159 --> 00:32:52,279
这意味着今天没有真正的 rally 信心

1040
00:32:52,279 --> 00:32:55,819
本质上如果医疗保健、公用事业和材料

1041
00:32:55,819 --> 00:32:57,259
像这些无聊的板块

1042
00:32:57,259 --> 00:32:58,599
像这些板块在领涨市场

1043
00:33:00,079 --> 00:33:01,299
这不是真正的信心

1044
00:33:01,299 --> 00:33:03,829
如果市场有真正的信心

1045
00:33:03,829 --> 00:33:05,609
你会看到大科技板块崛起

1046
00:33:05,609 --> 00:33:09,089
你会看到亚马逊、Meta、谷歌、微软

1047
00:33:09,089 --> 00:33:10,170
这些股票都在动

1048
00:33:10,170 --> 00:33:12,269
你会看到IGV指数上涨

1049
00:33:12,269 --> 00:33:13,950
这些都是所有软件股

1050
00:33:13,950 --> 00:33:14,390
没错

1051
00:33:14,390 --> 00:33:16,650
如果真正有坚定信念

1052
00:33:16,650 --> 00:33:19,230
真正有信心认为像

1053
00:33:19,230 --> 00:33:19,750
好的

1054
00:33:19,750 --> 00:33:20,990
我们开始行动了

1055
00:33:20,990 --> 00:33:23,089
这就是你要看到的滚动行情

1056
00:33:23,089 --> 00:33:25,849
你会看到卡特彼勒等股票表现惊人

1057
00:33:25,849 --> 00:33:28,089
这就是你要看到的

1058
00:33:28,089 --> 00:33:31,469
你会看到那些沉闷的板块上涨

1059
00:33:31,469 --> 00:33:34,749
这意味着人们并没有真正感到看涨

1060
00:33:34,749 --> 00:33:36,469
他们仍然非常谨慎

1061
00:33:36,469 --> 00:33:37,709
这只是需要留意的情况

1062
00:33:37,709 --> 00:33:38,669
这就是说

1063
00:33:38,669 --> 00:33:40,549
他想表达的观点

1064
00:33:40,549 --> 00:33:40,829
是的

1065
00:33:40,829 --> 00:33:42,970
第二项材料股

1066
00:33:42,970 --> 00:33:43,910
第二项

1067
00:33:43,910 --> 00:33:46,170
医疗保健材料股

1068
00:33:46,170 --> 00:33:47,409
这不是

1069
00:33:47,409 --> 00:33:49,729
这不是2025年的环境

1070
00:33:49,729 --> 00:33:52,509
问题是人们不知道现在是什么时候

1071
00:33:52,509 --> 00:33:55,190
他们希望是2024或2025年

1072
00:33:55,190 --> 00:33:56,990
他们希望由

1073
00:33:56,990 --> 00:33:57,759
嗯

1074
00:33:57,759 --> 00:33:58,400
呃

1075
00:33:58,400 --> 00:33:59,000
周期性板块

1076
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,240
他们希望由科技领涨

1077
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,299
而金融业是今天最差的板块

1078
00:34:03,299 --> 00:34:04,960
它们是唯一下跌的板块

1079
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,180
正如我所说

1080
00:34:06,180 --> 00:34:10,340
你需要知道现在是什么时候

1081
00:34:10,340 --> 00:34:13,780
这段行情中没有坚定的多头

1082
00:34:13,780 --> 00:34:14,500
他们不在这里

1083
00:34:14,500 --> 00:34:15,119
是的

1084
00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:15,380
嗯

1085
00:34:15,380 --> 00:34:16,019
这是个好观点

1086
00:34:16,019 --> 00:34:16,360
也

1087
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,800
因为坚定的多头

1088
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:20,099
如果你想引用

1089
00:34:20,099 --> 00:34:20,360
嗯

1090
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:20,599
哦

1091
00:34:20,599 --> 00:34:21,519
还有另一个点

1092
00:34:21,519 --> 00:34:27,500
如果你想对股市反弹有信心

1093
00:34:27,500 --> 00:34:31,130
其他表现良好的股票

1094
00:34:31,130 --> 00:34:33,829
或者让我拉出来

1095
00:34:33,829 --> 00:34:34,409
嗯

1096
00:34:35,570 --> 00:34:39,329
让我们拉出摩根大通

1097
00:34:39,329 --> 00:34:42,409
你需要看到金融业上涨

1098
00:34:42,409 --> 00:34:43,130
嗯

1099
00:34:43,130 --> 00:34:45,898
你想调出花旗银行

1100
00:34:45,898 --> 00:34:49,579
你想调出美国银行

1101
00:34:50,289 --> 00:34:50,969
是啊

1102
00:34:50,969 --> 00:34:52,090
哦，因为这个

1103
00:34:52,090 --> 00:34:52,889
美国银行

1104
00:34:52,889 --> 00:34:53,369
是的

1105
00:34:53,369 --> 00:34:53,849
这样就对了

1106
00:34:53,849 --> 00:34:58,250
你想调出高盛集团啊

1107
00:34:59,329 --> 00:34:59,929
或许城市银行

1108
00:34:59,929 --> 00:35:01,530
我们也可以调出城市银行

1109
00:35:01,530 --> 00:35:04,550
嗯，你知道的

1110
00:35:04,550 --> 00:35:06,250
从这些股票中我们能看到什么

1111
00:35:06,250 --> 00:35:08,329
只是没什么动静

1112
00:35:08,329 --> 00:35:09,090
呃

1113
00:35:09,090 --> 00:35:11,119
这只是一个交易日

1114
00:35:11,119 --> 00:35:13,099
你知道那些股票是另一回事

1115
00:35:13,099 --> 00:35:13,559
看看这个

1116
00:35:13,559 --> 00:35:14,858
那里完全没有动作

1117
00:35:14,858 --> 00:35:17,619
如果你处于真正的牛市行情

1118
00:35:17,619 --> 00:35:19,059
人们感觉市场已见底

1119
00:35:19,059 --> 00:35:20,340
就像我们要上涨了

1120
00:35:20,340 --> 00:35:21,260
比如金融业

1121
00:35:21,260 --> 00:35:24,869
如果金融业不上涨通常会看到动量吗

1122
00:35:27,559 --> 00:35:29,559
明显不是

1123
00:35:29,559 --> 00:35:30,340
缺乏信心

1124
00:35:30,340 --> 00:35:32,880
市场缺乏向上动力

1125
00:35:34,079 --> 00:35:42,829
散户一直看多且对市场有持续信心

1126
00:35:42,829 --> 00:35:46,409
所以在每次波动时他们都是买家

1127
00:35:46,409 --> 00:35:48,929
现在需要怀疑这种状态是否改变

1128
00:35:48,929 --> 00:35:52,010
根据万达研究的数据

1129
00:35:52,010 --> 00:35:56,360
周一散户对个股首次出现净抛售

1130
00:35:56,360 --> 00:36:01,730
这是2023年以来首次单日个股净卖出

1131
00:36:01,730 --> 00:36:02,590
明白了

1132
00:36:02,590 --> 00:36:05,269
市场在上涨时出现这种情况

1133
00:36:05,269 --> 00:36:07,550
散户却在逢高卖出

1134
00:36:07,550 --> 00:36:11,789
这是2023年以来首次个股单日净卖出

1135
00:36:11,789 --> 00:36:12,469
乔

1136
00:36:12,469 --> 00:36:14,389
我们该如何解读这个信号

1137
00:36:14,389 --> 00:36:15,869
看看它的意义

1138
00:36:15,869 --> 00:36:17,170
如果确实如此

1139
00:36:17,170 --> 00:36:20,130
那么观察趋势是否延续

1140
00:36:20,130 --> 00:36:26,159
这与过去几年的行为相反

1141
00:36:26,159 --> 00:36:26,980
散户一直在买入

1142
00:36:26,980 --> 00:36:30,769
需要几天后进一步确认

1143
00:36:30,769 --> 00:36:35,679
几周时间验证市场基调

1144
00:36:35,679 --> 00:36:39,599
我认为市场存在一丝疲软

1145
00:36:39,599 --> 00:36:41,400
我同意这个观点

1146
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:45,869
让我进一步解释过去24小时的讨论

1147
00:36:45,869 --> 00:36:49,489
与两家系统性趋势基金交流

1148
00:36:49,489 --> 00:36:51,190
他们都对我说了同样的话

1149
00:36:51,190 --> 00:36:53,108
我们在偏见方面保持中立

1150
00:36:53,108 --> 00:36:57,949
我们一直持有对全球多个指数的权益敞口

1151
00:36:57,949 --> 00:37:00,590
过去几年我们一直持有多头头寸

1152
00:37:00,590 --> 00:37:01,789
我们现在转为中立

1153
00:37:01,789 --> 00:37:02,590
我们已平仓调整

1154
00:37:02,590 --> 00:37:07,469
为什么今天会是连续第五个交易日收盘低于200日移动平均线

1155
00:37:07,469 --> 00:37:10,650
现在200日移动平均线可能对你毫无意义

1156
00:37:10,650 --> 00:37:12,809
但若足够多的人在使用它

1157
00:37:12,809 --> 00:37:14,510
它已成为市场变量之一

1158
00:37:14,510 --> 00:37:17,050
而目前遵循这一指标的基金

1159
00:37:17,050 --> 00:37:18,360
它们已成为一股力量

1160
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,480
现在它们的持仓偏向中立

1161
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,920
这是数月来首次

1162
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:25,599
这很合理

1163
00:37:25,599 --> 00:37:27,559
这就是我对技术面的看法

1164
00:37:27,559 --> 00:37:28,559
对啊

1165
00:37:28,559 --> 00:37:30,119
技术指标具有很高价值

1166
00:37:30,119 --> 00:37:32,778
因为人们赋予它们价值

1167
00:37:32,778 --> 00:37:33,559
就我个人而言

1168
00:37:33,559 --> 00:37:35,298
我不在意是否跌破200日均线

1169
00:37:35,298 --> 00:37:36,318
或高于200日均线

1170
00:37:36,318 --> 00:37:37,378
或跌破50日均线

1171
00:37:37,378 --> 00:37:38,418
或高于50日均线

1172
00:37:38,418 --> 00:37:40,809
作为基本面投资者

1173
00:37:40,809 --> 00:37:42,400
我对这些指标毫不在意

1174
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,800
但你必须理解

1175
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,139
市场中有很多基金和交易者从技术角度分析

1176
00:37:47,139 --> 00:37:49,000
从技术面视角观察市场

1177
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:50,820
若技术指标不吻合

1178
00:37:50,820 --> 00:37:53,059
他们会卖出或拒绝买入

1179
00:37:53,059 --> 00:37:54,659
这就是市场现状

1180
00:37:54,659 --> 00:37:56,940
这正是我们的绝佳机会

1181
00:37:56,940 --> 00:37:58,500
那些不参与其中的多头

1182
00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:00,210
不参与这些博弈

1183
00:38:00,210 --> 00:38:01,809
捕捉优质估值股票

1184
00:38:01,809 --> 00:38:02,670
当然没错

1185
00:38:02,670 --> 00:38:05,329
但需理解市场动态

1186
00:38:05,329 --> 00:38:05,690
好的

1187
00:38:05,690 --> 00:38:06,969
希望大家喜欢今天的视频

1188
00:38:06,969 --> 00:38:07,769
希望大家珍惜这份内容

1189
00:38:07,769 --> 00:38:08,929
感谢大家参与

1190
00:38:08,929 --> 00:38:10,489
非常感谢大家到场

1191
00:38:10,489 --> 00:38:11,010
再次强调

1192
00:38:11,010 --> 00:38:13,239
下方置顶评论获取超值优惠

1193
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:13,940
我们即将迎来

1194
00:38:13,940 --> 00:38:14,380
四月

1195
00:38:14,380 --> 00:38:16,079
愚人节玩笑

1196
00:38:16,079 --> 00:38:17,239
不要错过特惠

1197
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,079
这是千倍计划全权限访问

1198
00:38:19,079 --> 00:38:23,480
所有观看者都需要千倍计划talk.com访问权限

1199
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:24,639
所以一定要好好利用这个机会

1200
00:38:24,639 --> 00:38:25,429
请输入您的姓名

1201
00:38:25,429 --> 00:38:27,849
然后我们可以通过邮件或短信发送给您

1202
00:38:27,849 --> 00:38:29,030
无论您想通过哪种方式接收

1203
00:38:29,030 --> 00:38:30,070
您可以接收它

1204
00:38:30,070 --> 00:38:30,329
好的

1205
00:38:30,329 --> 00:38:31,769
我非常感谢大家，充满爱意

1206
00:38:31,769 --> 00:38:32,780
祝您度过美好一天

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