【Financial Education】我靠特斯拉和Palantir发了财，这只股票就是下一个！

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目前股市正在经历大幅波动

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这里存在一些绝佳的投资机会

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我们必须讨论这些机会

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这些都是难得的投资良机

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我在股市中发现相当长时间以来的最佳机会

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在这段视频中我们将首先详细探讨

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我想谈谈AMD公司

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AMD股价近期回撤约8%

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就在过去几个交易日

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我们想要讨论

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AMD是否已经见顶

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或者这只股票仍有很长的上涨空间

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我之前多次预测会有大幅波动

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Robinhood刚公布财报股价下跌约9%

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现在想快速谈谈

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Robinhood股票未来走势如何

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今天这里有个新消息

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散户近期大量涌入看涨期权

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我想分析这对股市未来的影响

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接下来我们将探讨市场走向

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在分析完这些内容后

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我们将讨论最佳投资机会

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我个人在股市中看到的优质机会

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目前这些股票未来几年具备惊人增长潜力

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接下来要讲到这个

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大家最喜爱的标的

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全年上涨空间正在增强

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期待深入分析这只股票

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接下来我要回应这个

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市场同时面临繁荣与冲击

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与此同时

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期待分析这个情况

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最后要回应的这个

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这是小时前发布的这条

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供应仍未能满足需求在

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人工智能领域期待解析这些内容

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希望大家能理解我为大家解析这些商业信息

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我只需要你们做一件事

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只做一件事

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如果你还没这样做

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我需要你

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请点赞支持

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图标

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让它发光

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即使你在电视上观看

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仍请找到方式点赞

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按钮发光

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同时请订阅频道

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因为我将提供大量优质内容

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我们将讨论投资机会等重要内容

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好的

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一开始就说吧

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我们来谈谈AMD，听好了

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AMD经历了一点回调

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下跌了8%

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好的

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好的

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让我们再深入一点，过去五天的情况

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过去一个月AMD上涨了11%

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AMD上涨了59%

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今年以来

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AMD过去一年上涨了44%

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AMD上涨了235%

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好的

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这里只是个小回调

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关于AMD现在的情况

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接下来AMD会往哪里走

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我们来打个电话

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接下来一周AMD股价会如何

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谁知道呢

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和我的一样好

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你不知道

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我不知道

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华尔街没人

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知道的

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没有AI程序

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能告诉你

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接下来五天AMD股价会如何

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这纯粹是随机投掷飞镖

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但AMD股价接下来会怎样

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基于公司基本面

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股价将涨至500到1000美元一股

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许多人开始认为未来几年这会是2000美元的股票

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基于盈利增长情况

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以及届时股价可能的市盈率

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但我可能更保守一些

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我认为股价将达500到1000美元

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好的

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但这并不意味着

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每周都会上涨

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每月都会上涨

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每天都会涨

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这不是市场规律

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会有大量回调

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自从我投资AMD以来

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并幸运地在股票中获利

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经历了无数涨跌、回调和崩盘

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这些波动很正常

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整体趋势将大幅上行

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这将是巨大的财富创造者

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对

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所以这就是关于AMD的部分

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接下来这里

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罗宾汉

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罗宾汉不想回到贫民窟

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我们拭目以待

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好的

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这次讨论下调了9%

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所以我分析了罗宾汉的财务状况

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好的，所以在我私人股票群组里

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我教你如何分析财务报表

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资产负债表

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现金流量表

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这些内容对吧

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我分享所有课程大纲

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这将是下方的置顶评论

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如果你想加入我们的私人Discord聊天室

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你可以看到

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比如今天

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我分析了UPS

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我创建了可口可乐

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分析了罗宾汉

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我可能还会分析Visa的财务报表

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因为现在已公布

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所以我一直在教你如何分析各种财务报表

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以及所有相关内容

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这是我们当前的Discord聊天室

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如果你从未见过

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我们有很多股票

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AMD社群

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非常棒

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这个社群很棒

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亚马逊社群很棒

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嗯是的

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好的

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所以罗宾汉

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罗宾汉得B-级评分

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收入增长15%

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同比来看仍是不错的增长数据

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但如果按季度环比看

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近期罗宾汉确实出现显著放缓

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我在此下跌了17%

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按季度环比总收入下降17%

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但同比仍保持15%

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这你知道的

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我总是更关注同比数据

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季度环比分析

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对

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罗宾汉的问题在于开支激增18%

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核心问题是若收入增长15%

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但你的运营费用将以更快的速度增长

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这将损害盈利能力

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好的，这正是我们在这里看到的情况

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明显损害了盈利能力

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最终净利润仅增长了3%

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税前利润仅增长了11%

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甚至没有收入增长快

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这确实是一个有点混乱的季度

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这还不是最糟糕的季度

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归根结底

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他们仍然实现了净利润增长

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他们小幅提升了每股收益

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但他们确实实现了增长

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他们仍然实现了收入增长

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所以我给了他们B-级评分

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但这就是这家公司的特点

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如果收入继续疲软

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而费用却持续上升

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Robinhood可能会从B-级降至

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未来一个季度或几个季度的损益表

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可能得到C-或D-级评分

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所以需要记住这一点

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关于Robinhood

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是否会降至F级

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可能性不大

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F级意味着开始亏损

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现在

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他们仍然盈利

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如今

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关于Robinhood

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是否值得买入

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好的

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说实话我不太看好Robinhood股票

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不过

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未来几年该股能否获利

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最终大概率会

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他们吸引了大量新交易者或投资者入驻应用

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此外他们大量盈利来自加密货币

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他们大量盈利来自

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期权交易

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他们吸引了喜欢参与此类交易的用户

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他们已接入预测市场

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所以他们

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更是一家创新驱动型公司

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我喜欢推动创新

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归根结底

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Robinhood

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确实是一家好公司

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不是我最青睐的股票

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当然

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尽管正确

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但整体而言这是一家好公司

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关于社区环境方面

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好的

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接下来这里

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看看个人投资者的风险偏好

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散户每日净买入看涨期权合约激增至九百万份

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自2025年11月以来最高

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顺便说一下

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罗宾汉证券

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你想知道最好的

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抱歉

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回到罗宾汉证券

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呃

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买入罗宾汉证券的最佳时机

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你知道在股市崩盘时

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当身处股市崩盘时

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罗宾汉股票将暴跌半英里

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股价将被彻底摧毁

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没错

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嗯嗯

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同样情况

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如果比特币在同一时间暴跌

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那就是一个时机

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如果你想布局类似股票的罗宾汉

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最佳时机就是现在

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你知道当股市触及历史新高时

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你知道此时无法获得最佳价格

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我只能说此时无法获得最佳价格

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你将在罗宾汉股票上获得最佳价格

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当市场崩盘时

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或重大调整时

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当出现重大调整时

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每

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你知道两到三年

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市场将经历崩盘

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每

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你知道五到八年

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你将会

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未来这里会有很好的机会

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以极低价格买入罗宾汉股票

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如果你想增持该仓位

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这

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你知道的

245
00:07:17,420 --> 00:07:18,060
周期性

246
00:07:18,060 --> 00:07:19,370
与市场同步

247
00:07:19,370 --> 00:07:23,509
显示买入看涨期权与卖出看涨期权的差额

248
00:07:23,509 --> 00:07:27,189
反映散户激进押注股市上涨

249
00:07:27,189 --> 00:07:31,589
每日净买入看涨期权合约升至七百万份以上

250
00:07:31,589 --> 00:07:34,870
相比三月底低点上涨350%

251
00:07:34,870 --> 00:07:40,970
这标志着至少两年来净每日看涨期权购买量的最大月度增长

252
00:07:40,970 --> 00:07:42,009
相比之下

253
00:07:42,009 --> 00:07:46,370
2024年1月至2025年9月的平均值为六百万份合约

254
00:07:46,370 --> 00:07:46,810
或者三

255
00:07:46,810 --> 00:07:48,740
当前水平低3%

256
00:07:48,740 --> 00:07:51,420
零售投资者现在极度看涨

257
00:07:51,420 --> 00:07:55,560
所以有几个因素需要记住

258
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,019
首先

259
00:07:57,019 --> 00:07:58,240
并不是说

260
00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,009
这些数字已经变得非常疯狂

261
00:08:01,009 --> 00:08:02,990
就像过去显示的

262
00:08:02,990 --> 00:08:03,670
你知道的

263
00:08:03,670 --> 00:08:05,290
在这两三年里

264
00:08:05,290 --> 00:08:06,209
并不是说

265
00:08:06,209 --> 00:08:06,850
天啊

266
00:08:06,850 --> 00:08:10,300
我们达到了前所未见的纪录水平

267
00:08:10,300 --> 00:08:12,800
我们大致处于这些数据中

268
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:13,360
你知道的

269
00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,610
过去两三年的其他峰值

270
00:08:15,610 --> 00:08:16,730
这是需要注意的地方

271
00:08:16,730 --> 00:08:18,629
我也必须坦白

272
00:08:18,629 --> 00:08:19,990
零售投资者表现抢眼

273
00:08:19,990 --> 00:08:20,870
过去几年

274
00:08:20,870 --> 00:08:21,769
他们确实如此

275
00:08:21,769 --> 00:08:22,250
嗯

276
00:08:22,250 --> 00:08:24,449
他们直接碾压华尔街

277
00:08:24,449 --> 00:08:27,399
那么华尔街

278
00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:28,879
零售投资者是否再次正确

279
00:08:28,879 --> 00:08:29,720
非常可能

280
00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:30,459
对

281
00:08:30,459 --> 00:08:31,779
我不太喜欢

282
00:08:31,779 --> 00:08:33,298
为什么我不喜欢

283
00:08:33,298 --> 00:08:34,798
我不喜欢当

284
00:08:34,798 --> 00:08:35,418
你知道的

285
00:08:35,418 --> 00:08:38,719
零售投资者对买入看涨期权过于热情

286
00:08:38,719 --> 00:08:41,298
我更希望人们购买个股

287
00:08:41,298 --> 00:08:42,859
对啊

288
00:08:42,859 --> 00:08:44,100
降低风险

289
00:08:44,100 --> 00:08:45,879
可能收益潜力较低

290
00:08:45,879 --> 00:08:46,419
但需注意

291
00:08:46,419 --> 00:08:48,620
这些看涨期权需要支付高额溢价

292
00:08:48,620 --> 00:08:48,980
对

293
00:08:48,980 --> 00:08:50,360
他们会免费出售给你

294
00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:51,580
他们会主动出售给你

295
00:08:51,580 --> 00:08:53,220
通常需要高额溢价

296
00:08:53,220 --> 00:08:55,740
因此可能存在盈利机会

297
00:08:55,740 --> 00:08:57,339
但风险很高

298
00:08:57,339 --> 00:09:00,538
实际收益潜力远不如预期

299
00:09:00,538 --> 00:09:02,278
鉴于风险特征

300
00:09:02,278 --> 00:09:02,879
就像

301
00:09:02,879 --> 00:09:04,879
请记住这些看涨期权会失效

302
00:09:04,879 --> 00:09:06,799
你将损失全部本金

303
00:09:06,799 --> 00:09:08,110
你正确投入了

304
00:09:08,110 --> 00:09:08,710
你来做决定

305
00:09:08,710 --> 00:09:10,789
我要将投资组合的10%投入

306
00:09:10,789 --> 00:09:14,190
假设你有1万美元投资组合，投入1000美元购买看涨期权

307
00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:15,440
就像你知道的

308
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,179
你可能损失投资组合的10%

309
00:09:17,179 --> 00:09:19,269
而且不会回本

310
00:09:19,269 --> 00:09:19,950
这就是

311
00:09:19,950 --> 00:09:21,509
这就是这部分的难点

312
00:09:21,509 --> 00:09:22,929
不像股票下跌

313
00:09:22,929 --> 00:09:23,870
就是说

314
00:09:23,870 --> 00:09:26,089
我买了微软股票结果下跌了

315
00:09:26,089 --> 00:09:27,989
未来六个月内会回升

316
00:09:27,989 --> 00:09:28,568
十二个月

317
00:09:28,568 --> 00:09:29,089
十八个月

318
00:09:29,089 --> 00:09:30,168
现在两个月过去了

319
00:09:30,168 --> 00:09:33,288
买入看涨期权后到期就无价值

320
00:09:33,288 --> 00:09:35,229
已经结束了，无法挽回

321
00:09:35,229 --> 00:09:35,769
没有

322
00:09:35,769 --> 00:09:36,889
不会回来的

323
00:09:36,889 --> 00:09:37,489
结束了

324
00:09:37,489 --> 00:09:39,389
这是需要注意的要点

325
00:09:39,389 --> 00:09:40,909
关于看涨期权

326
00:09:40,909 --> 00:09:42,490
需要留意这些风险

327
00:09:42,490 --> 00:09:43,049
好的

328
00:09:43,049 --> 00:09:43,490
明白了

329
00:09:43,490 --> 00:09:44,149
接下来这里

330
00:09:44,149 --> 00:09:48,169
目前我看到的股市最佳机会在哪里

331
00:09:48,169 --> 00:09:50,029
我已在X平台发布过

332
00:09:50,029 --> 00:09:52,830
我的X平台链接在下方描述区

333
00:09:52,830 --> 00:09:54,179
如果你想关注我的X动态

334
00:09:54,179 --> 00:09:55,840
请查看下方描述区

335
00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,759
这些是我目前发现的市场最佳机会

336
00:09:58,759 --> 00:10:03,250
ServiceNow和CRM这两只股票表现突出

337
00:10:03,250 --> 00:10:03,830
嗯

338
00:10:03,830 --> 00:10:05,350
没人喜欢这些SaaS

339
00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:05,629
股票

340
00:10:05,629 --> 00:10:07,029
关于终端设备的担忧

341
00:10:07,029 --> 00:10:10,840
比如这些公司长期价值如何

342
00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:11,059
没错

343
00:10:11,059 --> 00:10:12,509
有很多担忧存在

344
00:10:12,509 --> 00:10:14,350
并非针对ServiceNow

345
00:10:14,350 --> 00:10:18,269
或Salesforce未来三到五年的盈利和现金流

346
00:10:18,269 --> 00:10:19,710
你知道的三到五年

347
00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:21,649
对这些公司的长期产出存在很多担忧

348
00:10:21,649 --> 00:10:23,730
这些公司未来三十年的表现

349
00:10:23,730 --> 00:10:26,299
没错，因为AI和行业变革

350
00:10:26,299 --> 00:10:27,019
所有这些因素

351
00:10:27,019 --> 00:10:30,159
我不认为人们在足够深层次上理解这一点

352
00:10:30,159 --> 00:10:30,460
现在

353
00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:31,379
商业销售团队

354
00:10:31,379 --> 00:10:31,580
商业

355
00:10:31,580 --> 00:10:32,620
这只是我个人的看法

356
00:10:32,620 --> 00:10:33,620
我认为他们也会这样

357
00:10:33,620 --> 00:10:36,700
他们会意识到这些现在其实是绝佳的购买机会

358
00:10:36,700 --> 00:10:40,019
而人工智能是这些公司近段时间最好的发展助力

359
00:10:40,019 --> 00:10:44,188
在帮助它们在未来几年重振增长方面

360
00:10:44,188 --> 00:10:47,109
这不仅仅是未来几个季度的增长

361
00:10:47,109 --> 00:10:51,570
请记住华尔街所有人忽略的关键因素

362
00:10:51,570 --> 00:10:53,049
关于这些股票需要听清楚

363
00:10:54,210 --> 00:10:55,649
这些公司

364
00:10:55,850 --> 00:10:57,490
当我提到像ServiceNow时

365
00:10:57,490 --> 00:10:58,250
Salesforce

366
00:10:58,250 --> 00:11:02,570
他们的AI产品已经开始快速增长

367
00:11:02,570 --> 00:11:05,099
但基础规模还很小

368
00:11:05,418 --> 00:11:07,938
接下来会发生美妙的变化

369
00:11:07,938 --> 00:11:14,250
我们可以说在未来三到五年内

370
00:11:14,250 --> 00:11:17,399
这个AI基础将快速增长

371
00:11:17,399 --> 00:11:21,340
然后数字会变得更大

372
00:11:21,340 --> 00:11:23,450
这些与AI相关的商业模式

373
00:11:23,450 --> 00:11:26,769
ServiceNow或Salesforce拥有的

374
00:11:26,769 --> 00:11:29,049
目前可能只产生十亿美元收入

375
00:11:29,049 --> 00:11:32,090
但随着这些业务在未来几年持续增长

376
00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:34,129
它们将成长为十亿美元级企业

377
00:11:34,129 --> 00:11:36,909
然后是五十亿甚至一百亿美元级企业

378
00:11:36,909 --> 00:11:38,610
突然你会发现

379
00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:39,330
天啊

380
00:11:39,330 --> 00:11:41,440
这些已成为巨大的新业务

381
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,000
全因人工智能

382
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,190
这才是真正有趣的部分

383
00:11:45,190 --> 00:11:48,590
即使这些业务在未来增速放缓

384
00:11:48,590 --> 00:11:48,950
假设

385
00:11:48,950 --> 00:11:52,740
目前这些业务年增长率高达数百%

386
00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,320
或在某些情况下季度增长率更高

387
00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:55,879
没错

388
00:11:55,879 --> 00:11:59,559
那时可能增速降至40%

389
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:00,080
不过

390
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,169
如果现在有五亿美元业务且增速40%

391
00:12:05,649 --> 00:12:06,269
那就是

392
00:12:06,269 --> 00:12:09,570
年收入新增两亿美元

393
00:12:09,570 --> 00:12:11,120
现在才刚刚开始

394
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,539
当十亿美元规模业务增速40%

395
00:12:14,539 --> 00:12:17,100
年收入新增四亿美元

396
00:12:17,100 --> 00:12:20,049
这才是真正有趣的时候

397
00:12:20,049 --> 00:12:22,049
这阶段有些尴尬

398
00:12:22,049 --> 00:12:22,470
没错

399
00:12:22,470 --> 00:12:23,090
因为

400
00:12:23,090 --> 00:12:23,250
哦

401
00:12:23,250 --> 00:12:24,169
我们有了这个新机会

402
00:12:24,169 --> 00:12:25,169
这让人担忧会引发混乱

403
00:12:25,169 --> 00:12:26,149
但我们有了这个新机会

404
00:12:26,149 --> 00:12:27,029
它正在快速增长

405
00:12:27,029 --> 00:12:29,460
但它只是业务中的一小部分

406
00:12:29,740 --> 00:12:31,120
随着它变得越来越大

407
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:32,059
我认为人们逐渐意识到

408
00:12:32,059 --> 00:12:33,720
天啊这是绝佳的机会

409
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:34,909
没错

410
00:12:35,429 --> 00:12:38,029
A b adobe 是另一只股票

411
00:12:38,029 --> 00:12:39,889
显然这是市场中备受厌恶的股票

412
00:12:39,889 --> 00:12:41,470
人们担心会遭遇破坏

413
00:12:41,470 --> 00:12:42,009
没错

414
00:12:42,009 --> 00:12:42,629
你知道的

415
00:12:42,629 --> 00:12:45,840
我认为发生过最大的事情之一

416
00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:51,059
我不觉得人们注意到正确的时间点是当sora关闭时

417
00:12:51,059 --> 00:12:51,480
当open

418
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:52,759
AI关闭了sora对吧

419
00:12:52,759 --> 00:12:54,269
这影响巨大

420
00:12:54,269 --> 00:12:55,029
比如说你知道的

421
00:12:55,029 --> 00:13:00,309
如果你担心adobe会被其他公司取代

422
00:13:00,309 --> 00:13:03,279
然后你会看到这样的情况

423
00:13:03,759 --> 00:13:04,679
我不确定但我认为

424
00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:05,600
我认为这很重要

425
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:06,159
没错

426
00:13:06,159 --> 00:13:08,850
嗯所以adobe

427
00:13:08,850 --> 00:13:12,039
adobe的衰落被严重夸大了很长时间

428
00:13:12,039 --> 00:13:13,639
而现在依然如此

429
00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:14,740
我认为这是另一个行业

430
00:13:14,740 --> 00:13:16,779
大多数人甚至根本不懂

431
00:13:16,779 --> 00:13:19,980
而且你知道他们的大部分收入来自大企业

432
00:13:19,980 --> 00:13:21,059
如果你是大企业

433
00:13:21,059 --> 00:13:22,080
你无法摆脱adobe

434
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:22,799
你知道这就像

435
00:13:22,799 --> 00:13:23,700
你根本做不到

436
00:13:23,700 --> 00:13:26,139
我不知道还有什么可说的了

437
00:13:26,139 --> 00:13:27,359
你想要淘汰adobe

438
00:13:27,359 --> 00:13:30,720
这不过是支出项目中的一小项

439
00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,179
所以你会用它来赞助超级碗广告

440
00:13:33,179 --> 00:13:35,019
你知道用一些通用的

441
00:13:35,019 --> 00:13:36,000
这简直疯狂

442
00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:36,809
人们反应激烈

443
00:13:36,809 --> 00:13:39,529
所以这也是市场中的绝佳机会

444
00:13:39,529 --> 00:13:40,490
他们公布了良好的财报

445
00:13:40,490 --> 00:13:42,230
我认为股价将回到两到两

446
00:13:42,230 --> 00:13:43,230
五美元区间

447
00:13:43,230 --> 00:13:44,940
如果业绩达标

448
00:13:44,940 --> 00:13:47,980
他们大概会保持在十六到十九区间

449
00:13:47,980 --> 00:13:49,259
他们一直如此

450
00:13:49,259 --> 00:13:51,059
但这对长期投资者来说是个绝佳买入点

451
00:13:51,059 --> 00:13:51,620
我的观点

452
00:13:51,620 --> 00:13:53,110
他们是银行业未来的代表

453
00:13:53,110 --> 00:13:54,490
赛乐斯控股

454
00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:54,809
太棒了

455
00:13:54,809 --> 00:13:55,789
买入股票

456
00:13:55,789 --> 00:13:57,230
现在大约三三左右

457
00:13:57,230 --> 00:14:00,379
关于赛乐斯的三二钢铁交易

458
00:14:00,379 --> 00:14:00,799
我的意思是

459
00:14:00,799 --> 00:14:01,799
你很清楚

460
00:14:01,799 --> 00:14:02,419
短期来看

461
00:14:02,419 --> 00:14:03,159
随便老东西

462
00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:04,240
销售数据

463
00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:05,409
兄弟

464
00:14:05,409 --> 00:14:06,669
长期来看

465
00:14:06,669 --> 00:14:07,049
赛乐斯

466
00:14:07,049 --> 00:14:09,169
这是收入增长的巨大机会

467
00:14:09,169 --> 00:14:10,889
每股利润率增长

468
00:14:10,889 --> 00:14:11,570
持续多年增长

469
00:14:11,570 --> 00:14:12,230
未来的发展方向

470
00:14:12,230 --> 00:14:13,809
与埃勒夫的情况相同

471
00:14:13,809 --> 00:14:15,950
这也是绝佳机会

472
00:14:15,950 --> 00:14:17,549
在六十美元左右

473
00:14:17,549 --> 00:14:18,570
就像你知道的

474
00:14:18,570 --> 00:14:19,929
埃勒夫还能涨到十美元吗

475
00:14:19,929 --> 00:14:20,769
会跌到五十美元吗

476
00:14:20,769 --> 00:14:21,610
还是涨到七十

477
00:14:21,610 --> 00:14:23,850
谁知道呢 也无所谓

478
00:14:23,850 --> 00:14:24,990
两百到三百美元

479
00:14:24,990 --> 00:14:25,269
股票

480
00:14:25,269 --> 00:14:28,360
长期持有 不在意埃勒夫的十美元涨幅

481
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:29,980
耐克是绝佳机会

482
00:14:29,980 --> 00:14:31,379
作为扭亏为盈的投资

483
00:14:31,379 --> 00:14:33,080
数据已经开始好转

484
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:34,769
只是还没被发现

485
00:14:34,769 --> 00:14:37,610
将从笑柄变为被认可

486
00:14:37,610 --> 00:14:38,090
哦天啊

487
00:14:38,090 --> 00:14:40,409
我觉得错过了轻松赚钱的机会

488
00:14:40,409 --> 00:14:41,309
比如耐克

489
00:14:41,309 --> 00:14:42,289
作为拉德勒

490
00:14:42,289 --> 00:14:43,840
埃勒夫同样情况

491
00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,399
凯克表现非常强劲

492
00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:48,899
当消费者信心增强时

493
00:14:48,899 --> 00:14:50,379
消费者情绪极差

494
00:14:50,379 --> 00:14:55,179
想象消费者情绪改善后凯克股价会怎样

495
00:14:55,179 --> 00:14:57,429
对小型股信心增强

496
00:14:57,429 --> 00:14:59,830
对消费类公司信心增强

497
00:14:59,830 --> 00:15:01,429
凯克股价会如何

498
00:15:02,629 --> 00:15:04,529
凯克股价已超百美元

499
00:15:04,529 --> 00:15:05,090
说实话

500
00:15:05,090 --> 00:15:07,250
我认为凯克今年会结束在百美元以上

501
00:15:07,250 --> 00:15:08,049
五美元加

502
00:15:08,049 --> 00:15:09,190
我多次公开表态

503
00:15:09,190 --> 00:15:10,549
说我们会观察情况发展

504
00:15:10,549 --> 00:15:13,590
但我认为到年底这将是五美元加的股票

505
00:15:13,590 --> 00:15:16,070
我说如果你相信房地产将在未来两

506
00:15:16,070 --> 00:15:17,009
两到三年内

507
00:15:17,009 --> 00:15:19,078
最佳机会是惠而浦和橙色公司

508
00:15:19,078 --> 00:15:20,379
它们并非房地产开发商

509
00:15:20,379 --> 00:15:21,979
房地产开发商并非最佳机会

510
00:15:21,979 --> 00:15:22,458
因为

511
00:15:22,458 --> 00:15:23,918
如果你谈论房地产复苏

512
00:15:23,918 --> 00:15:25,519
你实际上在谈论现有库存

513
00:15:25,519 --> 00:15:27,818
而这正是惠而浦和RH公司的优势

514
00:15:27,818 --> 00:15:31,078
所以你知道这些需要记住

515
00:15:31,078 --> 00:15:32,779
如果现在认为房地产市场

516
00:15:32,779 --> 00:15:35,360
如果认为房地产市场未来两到三年仍低迷

517
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,259
那么显然惠而浦和诺福克

518
00:15:37,259 --> 00:15:38,809
你将面临艰难处境

519
00:15:38,809 --> 00:15:42,450
我说如果你想投资高风险高回报股票

520
00:15:46,309 --> 00:15:46,730
好的

521
00:15:46,730 --> 00:15:49,458
第一只Fubo TV

522
00:15:49,458 --> 00:15:51,958
整合工作现已完成

523
00:15:51,958 --> 00:15:52,399
目前阶段

524
00:15:52,399 --> 00:15:55,019
与Hulu直播电视同步进行

525
00:15:55,019 --> 00:15:56,820
是的

526
00:15:56,820 --> 00:16:00,610
 hymns 也是高风险高回报投资

527
00:16:00,610 --> 00:16:04,950
罗宾汉同样是高风险高回报标的

528
00:16:04,950 --> 00:16:05,509
对

529
00:16:05,509 --> 00:16:08,059
这就是我的推荐

530
00:16:08,059 --> 00:16:09,549
是的

531
00:16:09,990 --> 00:16:11,529
市场中有不少良机

532
00:16:11,529 --> 00:16:13,750
我们来看看华尔街动态

533
00:16:13,750 --> 00:16:19,788
但市场似乎已忽略伊朗战争

534
00:16:19,788 --> 00:16:22,009
忽略任何政治事件

535
00:16:22,009 --> 00:16:23,469
市场究竟在关注什么

536
00:16:23,469 --> 00:16:26,339
目前最关注的是什么

537
00:16:26,339 --> 00:16:31,119
我认为年初市场曾面临三大风险

538
00:16:31,119 --> 00:16:32,970
需要适应的

539
00:16:32,970 --> 00:16:38,568
一是伊朗战争升级可能

540
00:16:38,568 --> 00:16:40,729
二是私人信贷

541
00:16:43,469 --> 00:16:45,399
而我们看到

542
00:16:45,399 --> 00:16:49,240
我们已度过伊朗战争危机

543
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,139
经济展现出惊人韧性

544
00:16:53,139 --> 00:16:55,019
事实上盈利预期在上调

545
00:16:55,019 --> 00:16:56,889
我认为我们已通过这一考验

546
00:16:56,889 --> 00:17:00,370
私人信贷承销

547
00:17:00,370 --> 00:17:02,809
表现超出预期

548
00:17:02,809 --> 00:17:04,930
这也是IGV反弹的原因

549
00:17:04,930 --> 00:17:07,640
因此我认为升级是Igg

550
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:08,500
哦 对不起

551
00:17:08,500 --> 00:17:09,960
软件ETF

552
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:10,599
好的

553
00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:12,839
因为它一路跌到72

554
00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:14,078
现在回升到85

555
00:17:14,078 --> 00:17:17,118
许多私人信贷贷款与软件行业挂钩

556
00:17:17,118 --> 00:17:20,469
我认为这不再是结构性问题

557
00:17:20,469 --> 00:17:21,648
对我来说

558
00:17:21,648 --> 00:17:22,088
这意味着

559
00:17:22,088 --> 00:17:22,608
呃

560
00:17:22,608 --> 00:17:24,028
我认为今年股票

561
00:17:24,028 --> 00:17:25,588
看涨情况在加强

562
00:17:25,588 --> 00:17:28,980
我认为标普7700点以上可能性很大

563
00:17:28,980 --> 00:17:33,460
还有哪些因素支撑或构建这一趋势

564
00:17:33,460 --> 00:17:36,940
我认为一是盈利预期上调

565
00:17:37,099 --> 00:17:40,140
现在我们看到AI

566
00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:42,079
我认为推动生产力

567
00:17:42,079 --> 00:17:45,130
之前托尔斯坦在节目中提到

568
00:17:45,130 --> 00:17:47,109
AI存在积极前景

569
00:17:47,109 --> 00:17:47,490
即

570
00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:50,789
企业增长和公司发展

571
00:17:50,789 --> 00:17:54,730
我认为今年下半年风险溢价下降

572
00:17:54,730 --> 00:17:56,890
如果中东局势得到解决

573
00:17:56,890 --> 00:17:58,190
你正在消除

574
00:17:58,190 --> 00:18:02,329
长期被定价的敌对油价溢价

575
00:18:02,329 --> 00:18:05,269
这将推动市场进一步上涨

576
00:18:05,710 --> 00:18:07,980
油价仍维持在95美元

577
00:18:07,980 --> 00:18:11,920
我认为今早我推特提到市场处于盘整期

578
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,680
过去一周油价几乎没有波动

579
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,349
我们目前处于这种停滞状态

580
00:18:17,349 --> 00:18:19,910
可以说在该问题上

581
00:18:19,910 --> 00:18:21,990
正如几周前在这档节目里你所说

582
00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:26,109
短期内战争是最重要因素

583
00:18:26,549 --> 00:18:31,730
市场对伊朗的最好可能结果是什么

584
00:18:31,730 --> 00:18:32,859
最坏可能结果

585
00:18:33,259 --> 00:18:34,940
是的 这些影响很大

586
00:18:34,940 --> 00:18:35,619
嗯 是的

587
00:18:35,619 --> 00:18:36,059
确实如此

588
00:18:36,059 --> 00:18:36,420
确实如此

589
00:18:36,420 --> 00:18:37,039
确实如此

590
00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:38,900
处于两个极端

591
00:18:38,900 --> 00:18:41,200
一种可能是长期战争

592
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,900
因此油价低是假象

593
00:18:44,900 --> 00:18:46,960
现在将面临干旱

594
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,220
库存下降和产量损失

595
00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:55,069
我认为所有石油产品价格将大幅上涨

596
00:18:55,069 --> 00:18:58,809
这将威胁全球经济增长

597
00:18:58,809 --> 00:19:01,849
另一方是战争迅速解决

598
00:19:01,849 --> 00:19:04,150
通过各种压力的综合作用

599
00:19:04,150 --> 00:19:07,829
我认为目前市场押注的是更短的战争

600
00:19:08,539 --> 00:19:12,160
近年来我们经常讨论股票和债券

601
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,240
但大宗商品的强劲表现让迈克尔·哈特纳银行

602
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,869
你知道什么真正让我发笑

603
00:19:16,869 --> 00:19:17,829
让我笑出声

604
00:19:17,829 --> 00:19:18,910
你知道什么让我发笑

605
00:19:19,910 --> 00:19:21,019
如此多的争论

606
00:19:21,019 --> 00:19:21,920
如此多的担忧

607
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,700
如此多的思考关于标普500接下来的五百点

608
00:19:24,700 --> 00:19:25,539
五百点没错

609
00:19:25,539 --> 00:19:27,319
我们是不是要到七千七百点

610
00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:27,980
在

611
00:19:27,980 --> 00:19:30,410
我们要去往下走

612
00:19:31,519 --> 00:19:34,839
六千七百点对吧就像我

613
00:19:34,839 --> 00:19:35,259
我只是

614
00:19:35,259 --> 00:19:39,740
我只是非常非常担心S&P接下来五千点的表现

615
00:19:39,740 --> 00:19:42,880
而P接下来五千点的目标更高

616
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,660
这真的让我很担心对吧

617
00:19:45,660 --> 00:19:49,319
就像现在应该把重点放在那里

618
00:19:49,319 --> 00:19:50,240
汤姆·李的建议

619
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:50,680
此外

620
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:51,900
他有一个正在发展的市场

621
00:19:51,900 --> 00:19:52,440
呃

622
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,059
到年底大约七千七百左右

623
00:19:55,059 --> 00:19:58,779
但据我所知他在夏季有很多弱点

624
00:19:58,779 --> 00:20:00,700
并持续到初秋时节

625
00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:02,079
请记住这一点

626
00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:03,579
不要只是认为

627
00:20:03,579 --> 00:20:03,960
你知道的

628
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,099
如果我们直线涨到七千七百

629
00:20:06,099 --> 00:20:06,900
我们可能会

630
00:20:06,900 --> 00:20:08,059
这听起来合乎逻辑

631
00:20:08,059 --> 00:20:10,299
这是我们之前见过的许多情况

632
00:20:10,299 --> 00:20:12,140
没错，这也是主细胞中整个机制的来源

633
00:20:12,140 --> 00:20:13,720
这也源于那个离开的东西

634
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,059
我们只需待在夏天

635
00:20:15,059 --> 00:20:19,289
进入初秋然后在真正来临后增强

636
00:20:19,289 --> 00:20:19,769
你知道的

637
00:20:19,769 --> 00:20:20,930
这被称为万圣节前后

638
00:20:20,930 --> 00:20:23,009
而在美国首席投资策略师之后

639
00:20:23,009 --> 00:20:26,539
现在说更好的投资组合配置应该是他所说的‘睡眠’策略

640
00:20:26,539 --> 00:20:28,138
就像婴儿投资组合

641
00:20:28,138 --> 00:20:28,858
呃

642
00:20:28,858 --> 00:20:29,659
他说

643
00:20:29,659 --> 00:20:33,159
这是一种在股票中等权重分配

644
00:20:33,159 --> 00:20:33,858
债券

645
00:20:33,858 --> 00:20:36,069
现金和大宗商品

646
00:20:36,069 --> 00:20:37,309
根据哈塔特

647
00:20:37,309 --> 00:20:41,190
这四分法配置正迎来自1933年以来的最佳年度表现

648
00:20:41,190 --> 00:20:44,250
并创造了有史以来最大的相对收益之一

649
00:20:44,250 --> 00:20:46,089
与传统的六四分配相比

650
00:20:46,089 --> 00:20:46,309
现在

651
00:20:46,309 --> 00:20:48,259
我们都清楚每个策略都有表现优异的年份

652
00:20:48,259 --> 00:20:49,140
就像个坏掉的钟表

653
00:20:49,140 --> 00:20:49,380
没错

654
00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:51,319
但这是否是一个正常运转的钟表

655
00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:55,079
人们应该考虑这种配置并坚持下去

656
00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:56,759
我的意思是这其中有很多逻辑依据

657
00:20:56,759 --> 00:21:00,808
因为众所周知黄金是优异的总回报表现者

658
00:21:00,808 --> 00:21:03,048
因此我认为黄金应纳入投资组合

659
00:21:03,048 --> 00:21:04,628
这可能属于大宗商品类别

660
00:21:04,628 --> 00:21:05,960
再加上加密货币

661
00:21:06,710 --> 00:21:10,109
今年早些时候我曾听到有人指出

662
00:21:10,109 --> 00:21:13,309
纳斯达克和石油其实是良好的对冲工具

663
00:21:13,309 --> 00:21:16,930
因此这种二五比例的组合确实很有道理

664
00:21:16,930 --> 00:21:21,420
事实上科技和能源行业

665
00:21:21,420 --> 00:21:23,000
可以说是天平的两端

666
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,339
你知道某个十年能源表现优异

667
00:21:25,339 --> 00:21:27,980
而另一个十年科技表现突出交替出现

668
00:21:27,980 --> 00:21:32,210
有趣的是现在两者都表现良好

669
00:21:32,210 --> 00:21:32,690
是啊

670
00:21:32,690 --> 00:21:34,349
也许你的观点是无需择时

671
00:21:34,349 --> 00:21:37,960
稍作AI布局就能联动两者

672
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,400
正是如此且正在变化

673
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:40,599
你知道的

674
00:21:40,599 --> 00:21:42,750
我们刚才与罗杰·麦克迪交谈

675
00:21:42,750 --> 00:21:45,990
他表达了对当前AI模型的担忧

676
00:21:45,990 --> 00:21:47,039
因为它们可能

677
00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:50,759
尤其AI目前缺乏营收支撑其资本开支

678
00:21:50,759 --> 00:21:52,259
我们即将进入科技财报季

679
00:21:52,259 --> 00:21:54,599
所有关注点都将聚焦资本开支

680
00:21:54,599 --> 00:21:56,599
你是否担心

681
00:21:56,599 --> 00:21:59,519
这笔资本开支未必能带来回报

682
00:21:59,519 --> 00:22:00,200
彩虹

683
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,769
嗯是的

684
00:22:01,769 --> 00:22:01,890
我的意思是

685
00:22:01,890 --> 00:22:02,910
可能会有多种发展路径

686
00:22:02,910 --> 00:22:03,170
当然

687
00:22:03,170 --> 00:22:03,490
当然

688
00:22:03,490 --> 00:22:06,849
或许会出现能耗下降的突破

689
00:22:06,849 --> 00:22:08,759
嗯但是

690
00:22:08,759 --> 00:22:09,359
正如你所知

691
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,359
我们正在消耗所有计算资源

692
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,400
在我看来现在无需为此担忧

693
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:21,599
关于资本开支的积极面在于

694
00:22:22,039 --> 00:22:23,039
我的意思是

695
00:22:23,039 --> 00:22:25,339
听好了整个资本开支问题

696
00:22:25,339 --> 00:22:28,400
并没有人们渲染的那么可怕

697
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:28,779
好的

698
00:22:28,779 --> 00:22:30,240
所以让我们玩个游戏

699
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:31,089
让我们玩个游戏

700
00:22:31,089 --> 00:22:33,430
让我们说meta谷歌亚马逊

701
00:22:33,430 --> 00:22:35,089
这些花大价钱的公司

702
00:22:35,089 --> 00:22:37,569
还有所有英伟达的AI芯片对吧

703
00:22:37,569 --> 00:22:39,609
假设这些公司谈论

704
00:22:39,609 --> 00:22:42,130
我们明年要控制开支对吧

705
00:22:42,130 --> 00:22:44,609
假设他们都在电话会议宣布这可能不会发生

706
00:22:44,609 --> 00:22:45,690
但假设他们真的这么做

707
00:22:45,690 --> 00:22:46,250
好的

708
00:22:46,250 --> 00:22:46,990
好的

709
00:22:46,990 --> 00:22:47,490
立刻

710
00:22:47,490 --> 00:22:48,990
这会打击英伟达股价

711
00:22:48,990 --> 00:22:50,269
这会打击AMD股价

712
00:22:50,269 --> 00:22:51,390
这会打击微芯股价

713
00:22:51,390 --> 00:22:52,410
人们会感到害怕

714
00:22:52,410 --> 00:22:52,529
啊

715
00:22:52,529 --> 00:22:53,529
他们在控制开支

716
00:22:53,529 --> 00:22:55,099
天啊没错

717
00:22:55,460 --> 00:22:56,980
这是负面消息

718
00:22:56,980 --> 00:22:58,380
哪里是正面因素

719
00:22:58,380 --> 00:22:59,420
哇

720
00:22:59,420 --> 00:23:01,500
meta谷歌亚马逊

721
00:23:01,500 --> 00:23:02,039
这些巨头

722
00:23:02,039 --> 00:23:04,700
这样的言论会引发巨大积极动能

723
00:23:04,700 --> 00:23:05,720
因为人们会说

724
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:06,200
好的

725
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,710
他们在控制开支

726
00:23:07,710 --> 00:23:09,410
这意味着不会过度激进

727
00:23:09,410 --> 00:23:09,990
你知道的

728
00:23:09,990 --> 00:23:13,630
未来几年不会大幅增加开支

729
00:23:13,630 --> 00:23:14,269
影响不会那么大

730
00:23:14,269 --> 00:23:17,829
这意味着未来每股收益会更强

731
00:23:17,829 --> 00:23:20,529
比他们疯狂开支时更好

732
00:23:20,529 --> 00:23:22,750
因为这是阻碍

733
00:23:22,750 --> 00:23:23,930
亚马逊谷歌meta

734
00:23:23,930 --> 00:23:24,490
这些股票

735
00:23:24,490 --> 00:23:25,059
我说

736
00:23:25,059 --> 00:23:26,799
这些股票表现依然不错

737
00:23:26,799 --> 00:23:28,579
但开支确实有压制作用

738
00:23:28,579 --> 00:23:29,099
所有股票

739
00:23:29,099 --> 00:23:29,799
需要理解

740
00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:32,049
如果他们不这么疯狂

741
00:23:32,049 --> 00:23:36,789
这些股票会比现在高得多

742
00:23:36,789 --> 00:23:38,130
只是人们担心

743
00:23:38,130 --> 00:23:38,569
天啊

744
00:23:38,569 --> 00:23:41,250
这些公司把每一分钱都投入研发

745
00:23:41,250 --> 00:23:43,329
这会长期影响每股收益

746
00:23:43,329 --> 00:23:43,909
没错

747
00:23:46,808 --> 00:23:48,548
好的下一个

748
00:23:48,548 --> 00:23:50,109
从上方俯视看

749
00:23:50,148 --> 00:23:52,789
或许会认为油轮仍未关闭

750
00:23:52,789 --> 00:23:54,150
而油价未达一百

751
00:23:54,150 --> 00:23:56,299
国债收益率也未持续上升

752
00:23:56,299 --> 00:23:57,500
看起来像一个

753
00:23:57,500 --> 00:24:00,140
这曾是逃生通道直到

754
00:24:00,140 --> 00:24:01,299
这是否合理

755
00:24:01,299 --> 00:24:01,799
嗯

756
00:24:01,799 --> 00:24:03,500
看看人工智能交易

757
00:24:03,500 --> 00:24:05,609
软件硬件领域发生了什么

758
00:24:05,609 --> 00:24:09,369
这并不依赖经济周期表现

759
00:24:09,369 --> 00:24:10,650
这些资本支出计划

760
00:24:10,650 --> 00:24:12,730
无论能否成功

761
00:24:12,730 --> 00:24:13,950
已获得资金支持

762
00:24:13,950 --> 00:24:15,309
赌注已摆上桌面

763
00:24:15,309 --> 00:24:17,670
接下来你会看到相关动向

764
00:24:17,670 --> 00:24:21,319
与消费者支出无关

765
00:24:21,319 --> 00:24:22,220
旅行支出

766
00:24:22,220 --> 00:24:23,099
工业活动

767
00:24:23,099 --> 00:24:25,180
尤其是欧洲和亚洲的

768
00:24:25,180 --> 00:24:25,759
你知道的

769
00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:26,980
周期性企业

770
00:24:26,980 --> 00:24:31,740
按你的观点全球经济真的感受到这种压力了吗

771
00:24:31,740 --> 00:24:33,420
现在明显可见

772
00:24:33,420 --> 00:24:33,900
越来越明显

773
00:24:33,900 --> 00:24:36,079
如果持续关闭

774
00:24:36,079 --> 00:24:38,720
最终会触及约束条件

775
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,680
支付成本是一回事

776
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,789
但从中到那里需要石油

777
00:24:43,789 --> 00:24:45,109
需要能源

778
00:24:45,109 --> 00:24:46,710
当你面临短缺时

779
00:24:46,710 --> 00:24:49,339
将面临这一约束

780
00:24:49,339 --> 00:24:51,000
我认为这里发生的情况是

781
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,769
年末交割的原油

782
00:24:53,769 --> 00:24:55,930
上涨十五美元

783
00:24:55,930 --> 00:24:58,230
曲线外移

784
00:24:58,230 --> 00:24:59,289
所需时间

785
00:24:59,289 --> 00:25:00,409
道路已封闭

786
00:25:00,409 --> 00:25:03,088
我们需持续观察

787
00:25:03,088 --> 00:25:06,628
全球周期性行业面临更大问题

788
00:25:06,628 --> 00:25:08,088
你的预测是

789
00:25:08,088 --> 00:25:08,799
关于

790
00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:10,559
如何看待企业盈利

791
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:12,500
假设更依赖欧洲

792
00:25:12,500 --> 00:25:18,299
或亚洲地区将直接受冲击

793
00:25:18,299 --> 00:25:19,259
从所有封锁中

794
00:25:19,259 --> 00:25:22,950
这并非我们投资重点

795
00:25:22,950 --> 00:25:26,960
但届时开放时它们将受益

796
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,559
随着时间推移

797
00:25:28,559 --> 00:25:30,339
我们正接近那个节点

798
00:25:30,339 --> 00:25:35,000
我认为我们所需要的就是交通系统的改善，就能实现

799
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,839
我们可以讨论受损的基础设施

800
00:25:36,839 --> 00:25:37,949
这类问题

801
00:25:37,949 --> 00:25:40,308
但本质上还是二元对立的

802
00:25:40,308 --> 00:25:42,148
如果我们度过供应冲击

803
00:25:42,148 --> 00:25:44,240
这涉及运输和储存

804
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,339
你会看到能源价格大幅下降

805
00:25:46,339 --> 00:25:48,259
这些情况也会恢复

806
00:25:48,259 --> 00:25:49,759
但目前发生的事情太多

807
00:25:49,759 --> 00:25:51,240
现在这很有趣

808
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:51,799
我的意思是

809
00:25:51,799 --> 00:25:52,920
是什么驱动了收益增长

810
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,609
市场预期半导体每股收益增长88%

811
00:25:56,609 --> 00:25:57,170
在美国

812
00:25:57,170 --> 00:25:58,809
今年和明年

813
00:25:58,809 --> 00:26:01,949
四大上市公司在

814
00:26:01,949 --> 00:26:05,429
人工智能基建上的投入将揭晓

815
00:26:05,429 --> 00:26:07,249
他们今年的支出计划将清晰可见

816
00:26:07,249 --> 00:26:10,409
几乎可以说是

817
00:26:10,409 --> 00:26:12,210
他们可能

818
00:26:12,210 --> 00:26:16,490
我的猜测大概仍与三个月前一致

819
00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:17,450
是的

820
00:26:17,450 --> 00:26:18,769
不会有太大变化

821
00:26:18,769 --> 00:26:22,069
老实说早在两个月半前

822
00:26:22,069 --> 00:26:23,849
因为许多公司已在二月公布

823
00:26:23,849 --> 00:26:26,410
如果你了解标普五百指数

824
00:26:26,410 --> 00:26:29,240
可以说其结构设计旨在抵御

825
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,859
经济基本面的不确定性

826
00:26:32,859 --> 00:26:33,460
嗯

827
00:26:33,460 --> 00:26:34,619
你认为这意味着什么

828
00:26:34,619 --> 00:26:34,960
我的意思是

829
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,769
市场已消化了美联储的政策影响

830
00:26:37,769 --> 00:26:39,690
至少在短期内

831
00:26:39,690 --> 00:26:42,890
当你听到凯文·沃什

832
00:26:42,890 --> 00:26:45,740
说形势并不糟糕

833
00:26:45,740 --> 00:26:47,720
不禁思考货币政策

834
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,869
究竟能有多大作为

835
00:26:49,869 --> 00:26:54,328
我们能否每月保证2%的通胀率

836
00:26:54,328 --> 00:26:55,669
我们该怎么办

837
00:26:55,669 --> 00:26:57,409
这截然不同

838
00:26:57,409 --> 00:26:58,909
这将真正确保

839
00:26:58,909 --> 00:26:59,579
这些

840
00:26:59,579 --> 00:27:01,160
我们是否会限制经济

841
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,539
在供应冲击下

842
00:27:02,539 --> 00:27:04,019
很难想象这种情况

843
00:27:04,019 --> 00:27:06,490
会与所有讨论的差异一样大

844
00:27:06,490 --> 00:27:07,710
听着听着

845
00:27:07,710 --> 00:27:08,009
听着

846
00:27:08,009 --> 00:27:09,250
新崛起的巨头企业

847
00:27:09,250 --> 00:27:10,289
凯文·沃尔什

848
00:27:10,289 --> 00:27:12,289
好的，听好了

849
00:27:12,710 --> 00:27:13,930
他要开始抛售了

850
00:27:13,930 --> 00:27:15,650
这里有很多需要修复的问题

851
00:27:15,650 --> 00:27:18,980
我们有很多大事要做比如

852
00:27:19,180 --> 00:27:20,579
总统上任后该做什么

853
00:27:20,579 --> 00:27:21,980
当他们顺利上任时

854
00:27:21,980 --> 00:27:24,539
整个国家管理得一团糟

855
00:27:24,539 --> 00:27:25,880
我们要彻底改变一切

856
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,690
你的生活会变得非常美好

857
00:27:28,619 --> 00:27:29,559
就是同样的道理

858
00:27:31,500 --> 00:27:32,019
哦

859
00:27:32,019 --> 00:27:32,460
你知道的

860
00:27:32,460 --> 00:27:33,279
一切都糟透了

861
00:27:33,279 --> 00:27:34,759
这里需要修复的东西太多了

862
00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:36,180
还有很多工作要做对吧

863
00:27:36,180 --> 00:27:38,089
嗯 我们要全部解决

864
00:27:38,089 --> 00:27:38,950
这将会非常精彩

865
00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:40,210
完全一样的情况

866
00:27:40,210 --> 00:27:44,049
当他这么说的时候

867
00:27:44,049 --> 00:27:44,569
比如

868
00:27:44,569 --> 00:27:45,950
要保持理性看待

869
00:27:45,950 --> 00:27:47,319
要保持理性看待

870
00:27:47,319 --> 00:27:50,449
可能会有一些零散的调整

871
00:27:50,449 --> 00:27:52,608
但大部分还是老样子

872
00:27:52,608 --> 00:27:53,048
好的

873
00:27:53,048 --> 00:27:54,769
物资供应仍跟不上需求

874
00:27:54,769 --> 00:27:56,848
你怎么看待这个期刊报道

875
00:27:56,848 --> 00:27:57,449
里面有没有

876
00:27:57,449 --> 00:27:58,990
你坐下来想想

877
00:27:58,990 --> 00:27:59,609
好吧

878
00:27:59,609 --> 00:28:03,329
这是否是我们最初担心的问题

879
00:28:03,329 --> 00:28:03,950
太多太多了

880
00:28:03,950 --> 00:28:04,630
是的

881
00:28:04,630 --> 00:28:06,480
这是烟雾

882
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,140
我认为你关于

883
00:28:09,140 --> 00:28:09,779
呃

884
00:28:09,779 --> 00:28:10,400
呃

885
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:11,920
那个开放八号

886
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,000
有烟的地方

887
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,279
必有火源

888
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:17,000
睁大眼睛

889
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:22,119
在不同地区不同时期培育多家公司至关重要

890
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,859
显然如果他们的收入受损

891
00:28:24,859 --> 00:28:26,859
那你必须得

892
00:28:26,859 --> 00:28:29,779
后颈的毛发会竖起来警惕这些投资

893
00:28:29,779 --> 00:28:33,900
但我觉得也很重要补充一下亚历克斯的观点

894
00:28:33,900 --> 00:28:37,170
计算资源将会被使用

895
00:28:37,170 --> 00:28:41,769
或许OpenAI已经发展到

896
00:28:41,769 --> 00:28:44,249
正被Anthropic取代

897
00:28:44,249 --> 00:28:49,778
目前我们看到人类用户数量有所增长，而开放眼睛的用户则相对停滞

898
00:28:49,778 --> 00:28:53,839
这可能只是不同模型之间的轮换现象

899
00:28:53,839 --> 00:28:54,619
如果你愿意的话

900
00:28:54,619 --> 00:28:56,888
哦哦听着听着听着

901
00:28:56,888 --> 00:28:59,209
我不想成为OpenAI的一员

902
00:28:59,209 --> 00:29:00,088
天啊

903
00:29:00,088 --> 00:29:00,528
我是说

904
00:29:00,528 --> 00:29:00,769
是啊

905
00:29:00,769 --> 00:29:02,229
他们拥有Anthropic

906
00:29:02,229 --> 00:29:04,380
在竞争方面绝非玩笑

907
00:29:04,380 --> 00:29:05,539
这可不是玩笑

908
00:29:05,539 --> 00:29:10,368
但谷歌Gemini似乎越来越成功

909
00:29:10,368 --> 00:29:12,669
我越来越倾向于使用Gemini

910
00:29:12,669 --> 00:29:16,888
另一个被低估的则是Grok

911
00:29:16,888 --> 00:29:18,709
在我接触的很多人中

912
00:29:18,709 --> 00:29:22,288
尤其是喜欢使用X平台的用户

913
00:29:22,288 --> 00:29:23,119
嗯

914
00:29:23,119 --> 00:29:26,500
在所有AI引擎中使用频率最高

915
00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:30,299
所以不要低估

916
00:29:30,660 --> 00:29:32,259
马斯克所做的

917
00:29:33,259 --> 00:29:34,299
不要低估

918
00:29:34,299 --> 00:29:37,660
当然Anthropic和不要低估谷歌

919
00:29:37,660 --> 00:29:39,450
所以你知道的

920
00:29:39,450 --> 00:29:41,650
OpenAI的表现令人印象深刻

921
00:29:41,650 --> 00:29:42,910
他们在过去几年取得的成就

922
00:29:42,910 --> 00:29:43,349
但天啊

923
00:29:43,349 --> 00:29:47,440
我告诉你竞争已经激烈到极点

924
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,359
先发优势并不总能保证长期成功

925
00:29:50,359 --> 00:29:52,230
如果真是这样的话

926
00:29:52,230 --> 00:29:54,210
雅虎本该赢得搜索市场

927
00:29:54,210 --> 00:29:55,559
长期来看没错

928
00:29:55,559 --> 00:29:56,740
就不会是谷歌了

929
00:29:56,740 --> 00:29:58,279
以前大家都用雅虎搜索

930
00:29:58,279 --> 00:30:00,500
而谷歌后来居上成为行业霸主

931
00:30:00,500 --> 00:30:01,079
没错

932
00:30:01,079 --> 00:30:01,720
嗯

933
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,170
我们可以讨论互联网时代发生的种种变化

934
00:30:05,170 --> 00:30:06,450
当我们谈到手机发展时

935
00:30:06,450 --> 00:30:08,509
谁能想到

936
00:30:08,509 --> 00:30:09,130
我是说

937
00:30:09,130 --> 00:30:11,528
如果回到2000年

938
00:30:11,528 --> 00:30:15,189
谁能预测二十年后

939
00:30:15,189 --> 00:30:19,990
美国最大手机公司会是苹果

940
00:30:19,990 --> 00:30:23,150
当时没人能预见这会有多疯狂

941
00:30:23,150 --> 00:30:26,690
那时摩托罗拉和诺基亚才是巨头

942
00:30:26,690 --> 00:30:27,150
没错

943
00:30:27,150 --> 00:30:29,390
二十年后突然发现

944
00:30:29,390 --> 00:30:32,930
苹果竟成为最成功的手机公司

945
00:30:32,930 --> 00:30:33,890
在美国

946
00:30:33,890 --> 00:30:34,869
简直不可思议

947
00:30:34,869 --> 00:30:37,589
需要记住的一点是

948
00:30:37,589 --> 00:30:38,529
他们一直在

949
00:30:38,529 --> 00:30:39,150
你知道的

950
00:30:39,150 --> 00:30:40,470
非常聪明的声音

951
00:30:40,470 --> 00:30:41,430
他们有着历史

952
00:30:41,430 --> 00:30:43,160
在技术领域

953
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,220
我回到迈克尔

954
00:30:44,220 --> 00:30:45,140
戴尔你知道什么

955
00:30:45,140 --> 00:30:46,759
我不知道是不是六个月前

956
00:30:46,759 --> 00:30:49,380
或者你建议的其他内容

957
00:30:49,380 --> 00:30:50,220
最终你会

958
00:30:50,220 --> 00:30:51,859
你会过度建设

959
00:30:51,859 --> 00:30:53,220
因为通常如此

960
00:30:53,220 --> 00:30:54,640
但我们还没到那一步

961
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,279
但重点是你终将到达

962
00:30:57,279 --> 00:30:59,559
如果我们比预期更快到达呢

963
00:30:59,559 --> 00:31:01,839
当然这会很糟糕

964
00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:04,079
在我节目中从未

965
00:31:04,079 --> 00:31:06,500
否认我们终将过度建设

966
00:31:06,500 --> 00:31:08,250
会有损失和计提

967
00:31:08,250 --> 00:31:09,670
评估价值下降

968
00:31:09,670 --> 00:31:10,890
这不可避免

969
00:31:10,890 --> 00:31:12,769
过度建设

970
00:31:12,769 --> 00:31:14,809
尤其是多位CEO

971
00:31:14,809 --> 00:31:16,430
正如我们反复强调

972
00:31:16,430 --> 00:31:16,890
说

973
00:31:16,890 --> 00:31:19,069
我更可能过度建设而非不足

974
00:31:19,069 --> 00:31:21,140
所以这已是既定事实

975
00:31:21,140 --> 00:31:22,279
关键在于时机

976
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:23,480
但回到重点

977
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,640
我什么都没听到

978
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,638
我们将转向本周财报分析

979
00:31:27,638 --> 00:31:30,660
仍未听到任何供应信息

980
00:31:30,660 --> 00:31:32,099
甚至追赶需求

981
00:31:32,099 --> 00:31:33,859
更不用说超越需求了

982
00:31:33,859 --> 00:31:36,079
若本周再次听到相关消息

983
00:31:36,079 --> 00:31:39,259
所有人都预期需求将远超供应

984
00:31:39,259 --> 00:31:43,640
我们仍未接近今日提及的神秘终点

985
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:44,980
与昨日及前日无异

986
00:31:44,980 --> 00:31:46,160
这才是核心问题

987
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,910
即将听取地球最重磅公司财报

988
00:31:49,910 --> 00:31:51,950
明日马特将继续分析

989
00:31:51,950 --> 00:31:56,420
市场现在多依赖这些数据

990
00:31:56,700 --> 00:31:58,259
我认为至关重要

991
00:31:58,259 --> 00:31:59,579
仅从

992
00:31:59,579 --> 00:32:00,099
你知道的

993
00:32:00,099 --> 00:32:02,579
今年以来推动股市上涨的因素

994
00:32:02,579 --> 00:32:03,579
正是盈利增长故事

995
00:32:03,579 --> 00:32:07,400
地缘政治新闻令人担忧

996
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:08,380
至少可以说

997
00:32:08,380 --> 00:32:11,140
但盈利故事却是最亮眼的

998
00:32:11,140 --> 00:32:14,690
而这个故事中的领头打者

999
00:32:14,690 --> 00:32:18,240
是周三收盘后发布财报的公司

1000
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:18,839
嗯

1001
00:32:18,839 --> 00:32:19,920
正如丹之前提到的

1002
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,380
我认为我们将听到的是

1003
00:32:21,380 --> 00:32:22,319
大体上和之前一样

1004
00:32:22,319 --> 00:32:27,990
更多关于计算供应端的持续限制

1005
00:32:27,990 --> 00:32:29,930
而非需求端的不足

1006
00:32:29,930 --> 00:32:31,190
所以你知道的

1007
00:32:31,190 --> 00:32:32,410
当这个消息今早公布时

1008
00:32:32,410 --> 00:32:33,190
在华尔街日报提到

1009
00:32:33,190 --> 00:32:34,569
你知道的

1010
00:32:34,569 --> 00:32:34,950
Open AI未达预期

1011
00:32:34,950 --> 00:32:36,549
我倾向于观察实时数据

1012
00:32:36,549 --> 00:32:38,869
关于GPU的定价情况

1013
00:32:38,869 --> 00:32:41,599
价格仍在持续上涨

1014
00:32:41,599 --> 00:32:43,640
这显示市场紧俏

1015
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,220
而非对当前需求环境的担忧

1016
00:32:45,220 --> 00:32:49,440
与任何需求环境的担忧相比

1017
00:32:51,819 --> 00:32:55,140
关于整个情况我想说

1018
00:32:56,109 --> 00:32:59,410
人们越来越频繁地日常使用AI

1019
00:32:59,410 --> 00:33:00,930
对吧嗯

1020
00:33:01,250 --> 00:33:01,769
你知道的

1021
00:33:01,769 --> 00:33:04,150
仍有许多人首次尝试

1022
00:33:04,150 --> 00:33:05,269
AI就像第一次接触

1023
00:33:05,269 --> 00:33:06,769
并随意探索

1024
00:33:06,769 --> 00:33:09,009
甚至在专业层面

1025
00:33:09,009 --> 00:33:09,648
商业层面

1026
00:33:09,648 --> 00:33:12,828
人们越来越频繁地日常使用

1027
00:33:12,828 --> 00:33:15,128
这将持续数年

1028
00:33:15,128 --> 00:33:16,190
在未来的发展中

1029
00:33:16,190 --> 00:33:18,650
就建设进程而言

1030
00:33:18,650 --> 00:33:22,440
我认为可能会有需要担忧的时刻

1031
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:22,779
比如

1032
00:33:22,779 --> 00:33:24,079
我们是否过度建设

1033
00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:26,599
但仍有很长的路要走

1034
00:33:26,599 --> 00:33:29,460
因为仍有大量人首次体验AI

1035
00:33:29,460 --> 00:33:32,769
甚至像我这样开始使用的人

1036
00:33:32,769 --> 00:33:34,430
几乎每天都在使用AI

1037
00:33:34,430 --> 00:33:38,479
我现在每天都会使用AI相关产品

1038
00:33:38,479 --> 00:33:39,199
对的而且我

1039
00:33:39,199 --> 00:33:41,138
两年前我无法这么说

1040
00:33:41,138 --> 00:33:43,459
但我们现在已深度整合

1041
00:33:43,459 --> 00:33:47,659
比如千乘X和AI报告功能

1042
00:33:47,659 --> 00:33:51,900
我还用AI辅助研究公司

1043
00:33:51,900 --> 00:33:54,500
并在看多与看空之间切换

1044
00:33:54,500 --> 00:33:54,980
还有

1045
00:33:54,980 --> 00:33:55,799
如果发生这种情况会怎样

1046
00:33:55,799 --> 00:33:57,799
并将其作为额外助手

1047
00:33:57,799 --> 00:33:58,940
几乎就像嗯

1048
00:33:58,940 --> 00:34:01,809
投资者更像是在来回对话

1049
00:34:01,809 --> 00:34:03,299
当然，我的意思是

1050
00:34:03,299 --> 00:34:03,819
你知道的

1051
00:34:03,819 --> 00:34:06,720
还有很多其他例子，我越来越频繁地使用AI

1052
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,719
这将是持续多年的建设过程

1053
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,329
没错，是的

1054
00:34:11,329 --> 00:34:11,728
我的意思是

1055
00:34:11,728 --> 00:34:13,688
我们能否达到那样的程度

1056
00:34:13,688 --> 00:34:13,889
是的

1057
00:34:13,889 --> 00:34:16,648
可能是在两到四六十年后

1058
00:34:16,648 --> 00:34:17,909
所以你知道的

1059
00:34:17,909 --> 00:34:19,628
这只是需要记住的一点

1060
00:34:19,628 --> 00:34:19,969
好的

1061
00:34:19,969 --> 00:34:20,349
好的

1062
00:34:20,349 --> 00:34:20,509
各位

1063
00:34:20,509 --> 00:34:21,509
感谢大家一如既往地加入

1064
00:34:21,509 --> 00:34:22,789
再次感谢大家的到来

1065
00:34:22,789 --> 00:34:24,670
如果你想申请私密群组

1066
00:34:24,670 --> 00:34:27,090
获取《成为股市大师》课程

1067
00:34:27,090 --> 00:34:28,230
百万计划手册

1068
00:34:28,230 --> 00:34:29,150
股票期权精通课程

1069
00:34:29,150 --> 00:34:30,070
股息投资精通课程

1070
00:34:30,070 --> 00:34:31,150
财务报表精通课程

1071
00:34:31,150 --> 00:34:32,469
我的估值精通课程

1072
00:34:32,469 --> 00:34:33,809
你想学习如何估值公司

1073
00:34:33,809 --> 00:34:35,550
你想访问thousandxtalks.com

1074
00:34:35,550 --> 00:34:37,250
你想加入我的Discord聊天室

1075
00:34:37,250 --> 00:34:38,730
独家每周视频

1076
00:34:38,730 --> 00:34:41,090
你想看到我在投资组合中的实际操作

1077
00:34:41,090 --> 00:34:42,530
那就是下方的置顶评论

1078
00:34:42,530 --> 00:34:45,769
点击表单获取全部资源

1079
00:34:45,769 --> 00:34:47,110
一旦加入我们

1080
00:34:47,110 --> 00:34:50,840
我们将发送thousandx的专属会员卡

1081
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,000
或者针对私密群组

1082
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,550
同时也会发送thousandx会员卡

1083
00:34:55,550 --> 00:34:57,449
如果你选择终身加入

1084
00:34:57,449 --> 00:34:59,130
我们将赠送黑卡

1085
00:34:59,130 --> 00:35:02,010
只有少数人能获得黑卡

1086
00:35:02,010 --> 00:35:03,130
大家真的太感谢了

1087
00:35:03,130 --> 00:35:04,780
永远充满爱，祝大家一天愉快

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