费半飙升。股王暴雷。【2026-05-05】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年5月5号星期二

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标普指数今天上涨58.47点

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涨幅0.8%

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一

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盘中又创出历史新高

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7273点

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均线系统保持多头排列

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预计小步慢涨的节奏将会重现

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如果指数每天在5日均线支撑下缓慢上涨

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那新高将会不断涨的时间长

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上涨空间主要是积少成多来的

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纳斯达克指数上涨的趋势也是比较明朗

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短期均线拖着指数上行

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每天涨幅百分之一上下

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既有持续的能量

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又不会急躁

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今天纳指上涨258.32点

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涨幅1.03%

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新的一轮慢牛上涨趋势正在形成

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今天美国劳工局发布3月份职位空缺数据

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Georz

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美国3月份职位空缺

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下降到686.6万个

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招聘人数大幅上升到555万

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裁员人数上升到187万

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劳动力市场稳定

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但是逐渐降温

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目前的就业数据仍不支持美联储采取降息行动

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而油价最近涨很多

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最终将体现到核心通胀上面

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美联储的工作重点有可能会转向防通胀

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今天美债升破5%

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值得警惕

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30年美债收益率刚刚突破5%

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截图在4.989%

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这意味着

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只要买入30年期的美国国债

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可以躺平赚30年的利息

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年年5%买100万

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30年美债每年5万拿30年到期还保本

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100万

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5%是敏感参数

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有人统计

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过去3年

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当30年美债接近或突破50%

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股市就遭受了短期冲击

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我在想为什么是5%

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因为标普指数长期平均回报率是10%

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但是要冒险

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如果没有什么风险的国债能到期保本保收益

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给到5%

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比较保守的资金

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可能就宁愿去债券市场收利息了

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30年债券的风险到底有没有呢

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到期还本付息

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信用风险几乎没有

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但是长期的国债有利息风险

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如果市场利率上升了

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那么持有在手上的国债就会下跌

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期限越长的国债啊

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跌起来幅度越大

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持有到期是保本的

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但是持有一段时间卖出是有可能亏本

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美债突破5%

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对国债本身来讲

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利息不错

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值得考虑考虑

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但是对于股市来说

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5%啊

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可能就是股市向上有压力的一个信号

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美国证券交易委员会see c将修订规则

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允许上市公司半年公布一次财报

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我们早就习惯了三个月一次的财报

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但季报的强制规定有可能发生改变

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川普去年就说上市公司应该将季报改为半年报

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那么财报披露频率减少对股市会有什么影响呢

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有不利的方向

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就是信息变得不太透明

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两次披露间隔了半年

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投资者不确定公司基本面发生了多大的变化

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当财报公布时

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股价反应会比现在更为剧烈

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季度财报有时会让人困惑

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因为当收入利润和前景都超过预期的时候

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股价还能大跌10%以上

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财报成为主力洗盘和出货的窗口期

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很多时候感觉亏得挺冤的

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当上市公司不必每季度面临投资者的压力时

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他们可以做出更长远的规划

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而不必每三个月就出来

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面对大家的质疑

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对于长期投资者来说

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少一些季报的波动

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多关注长期基本面变动

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能拿得住股票才是最重要的

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那么sea c获得白宫批准

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目前正在征求意见的半年报公布规则有利有弊

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不过新规可能是允许公司将季报改为半年报

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并非强制

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所有公司都只能是半年才公布一次财报

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这给上市公司自有选择权

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可以预期的是

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以后仍将有绝大多数公司是按季度披露财报的

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最近几年美股上涨是上涨了

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但不是人人赚钱

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阳光普照的那种上涨

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后来是芯片上涨

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最近是存储上涨

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市场不普遍上涨

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而是集中做强一个板块或一个组合

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然后再转战下一组的个股

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早些年有一个股市术语叫板块轮动

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但美股又不叫板块轮动

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倒是芯片半导体存储AI等又上涨了

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集中度

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市场整体上涨

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依赖少数明星股的现象已经持续了几年

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有一些研究机构就开始担忧这个现象

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最近提出这一观点的是麦克莱伦市场报告

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市场上涨的面儿太窄

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指数虽然强

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但下跌股票的数量明显多于上涨家数

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股票没选对时

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就是在躲牛市

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这样的牛市并不健康

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我在上周五个科技巨头财报后得出一个观点

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那就是云巨头的资本支出

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是整个美股的上涨基石

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一旦拐点

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后果严重

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逻辑推理是这样的

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云巨头要支出7250亿投资数据中心

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这就养活了一系列半导体公司

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然后半导体和AI又是美股权重股领涨科技板块

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带动纳斯达克拉升

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标普指数源头

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就是那资本支出的7250亿

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而且仍然在增长

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如果2027年或2028年

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科技巨头对资本支出开始刹车

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那美股上涨的个股如此集中的情况下

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确实有可能大幅回调

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这个虽然不会马上发生

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但总有一天会有这样的消息

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最近因为英伟达冲高回落

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没有成功形成上行趋势

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而谷歌短线上涨趋势较为明朗

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在这样的情况下

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谷歌极有可能超过英伟达夺得美股股王宝座

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谷歌今天盘中又刷出新高

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日线图趋势仍显示将继续上涨

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目前的市值是4.63万亿

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英伟达在冲高回落后

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连续阴跌五天

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回到了前期整理平台里面

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趋势形成失败

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目前英伟达的市值是4.78万亿

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谷歌只比英伟达少了1500亿

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那这一次美股股王易主的概率挺高的

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谷歌可能会成为新的美股股王

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但是加拿大股王今天却崩了

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通常我们说加拿大的股王是RBC皇家银行

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或者是SHOPIFY

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按市值来看

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皇家银行应该是市值最高的加拿大股王

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但是SHOPHIFI是加拿大科技巨头

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长得好的时候能挑战皇家银行

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偶尔也当一当股王

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最近sh币法

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因为软件股大跌

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今天发布一个不错的财报

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继续暴雷大跌

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上季度公司营业收入31.7亿美元

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同比增长34%

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超过分析师预期的30.9亿美元

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利润是负的

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因为股权投资亏了不少钱

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扣除股权投资亏损后的每股收益是正的

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36美分

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超过了分析师预期的32美分

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电商平台上的GMV交易总额超过1000亿美元

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说明平台持续增长

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公司预计

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二季度的营收增长放缓到25%

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到29%之间

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低于市场预期的30%

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毛利润增长率25%左右

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预计增长放缓对SHOPF是重大打击

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因为股票估值超过100倍

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需要有非常高的增长速度才能配上这个估值

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增长放缓是shy法今年大跌15%的原因

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从K线图上看还没有跌到底

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所以说不管是现在的股王还是前任股王

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只要业绩增速与估值不匹配

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股价都是有可能要大砍一刀的

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另外SHOPIFY是木头姐看好的股票

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在ARKF持有9.27%的仓位

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持股63.4万股

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在ARKW中持有62.1万股

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仓位4.51%

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在ARKK中持有234万股

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仓位4.37%

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此轮大跌我猜测木头姐有可能会买入加仓

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shopp five是软件股

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SAAS板块是今年最倒霉的科技板块之一

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欺软怕硬是今年上半年的主要行情特点

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半导体硬件又涨疯了

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费城半导体指数今天突破1万1000点

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30只个股没有一只下跌的

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费半成份股涨最好的三支股分别是英特尔

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美光和高通

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英特尔最近开挂暴涨暴涨的时候

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好消息天天有

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今天的利好是英特尔正在与苹果谈

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要在苹果的美国产品中使用英特尔的芯片

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那苹果的量

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00:09:37,169 --> 00:09:39,669
那么大找谁谁发财啊

221
00:09:39,669 --> 00:09:43,220
所以股票今天受消息刺激大涨13%

222
00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:45,899
AAMD盘后财报截图

223
00:09:45,899 --> 00:09:47,600
使股价快速拉升

224
00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,059
一季报超预期是肯定的

225
00:09:50,059 --> 00:09:52,299
营收102.5亿

226
00:09:52,299 --> 00:09:54,529
超过预期的98.9亿

227
00:09:54,529 --> 00:09:56,570
每股收益1.37美元

228
00:09:56,570 --> 00:09:59,100
超过预期的1.29美元

229
00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:00,480
苏妈表示

230
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,919
数据中心现在是收入和利润增长主要动力

231
00:10:03,919 --> 00:10:05,159
展望未来

232
00:10:05,159 --> 00:10:07,799
服务器增长将显著加速

233
00:10:07,799 --> 00:10:11,139
因此AAMD也是基本面向好的个股

234
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:13,200
股价有望维持牛市

235
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,740
SMCI财报盘后大涨

236
00:10:15,740 --> 00:10:19,399
这家公司曾经是做到连会计师事务所都辞职

237
00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:20,120
不干

238
00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,019
公司关键员工走私芯片给中国

239
00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,289
但财报后暴涨了

240
00:10:28,289 --> 00:10:31,950
公司季报显示营收102.4亿

241
00:10:31,950 --> 00:10:33,070
低于预期

242
00:10:33,070 --> 00:10:35,899
但是调整后每股收益八十四美分

243
00:10:35,899 --> 00:10:39,179
大幅超过分析师预期的63美分

244
00:10:39,500 --> 00:10:40,659
人工智能业务

245
00:10:40,659 --> 00:10:43,509
推动了122%的同比增长

246
00:10:43,509 --> 00:10:46,009
SMCI下调全年营业

247
00:10:46,009 --> 00:10:50,259
至389亿和404亿之间低于预期

248
00:10:50,259 --> 00:10:52,019
财报没有非常优秀

249
00:10:52,019 --> 00:10:54,220
但是有困境反转迹象

250
00:10:54,220 --> 00:10:56,279
股价之前跌很多了

251
00:10:56,279 --> 00:10:59,370
盘后上涨可能是认为困境反转了

252
00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:03,710
最后讲刚刚获得关键条款让步的清晰法案

253
00:11:03,710 --> 00:11:04,909
Coin base

254
00:11:04,909 --> 00:11:09,200
从之前的公开反对转为开始支持clarity法案

255
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:10,100
可预期

256
00:11:10,100 --> 00:11:13,818
美国的加密货币清晰法案取得实质性进展

257
00:11:13,818 --> 00:11:17,219
法案中关于稳定币收益的关键条款

258
00:11:17,219 --> 00:11:19,389
最近差不多谈拢了

259
00:11:19,389 --> 00:11:22,110
那就是稳定币禁止支付利息

260
00:11:22,110 --> 00:11:25,980
但是链上活动相关的奖励仍然允许

261
00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:28,259
这相当于是开了一个口子

262
00:11:28,259 --> 00:11:31,059
稳定币还是可以获得稳健收益的

263
00:11:31,059 --> 00:11:32,500
不能按利息付

264
00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:33,559
换个说法付

265
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:34,849
那就可以了

266
00:11:34,849 --> 00:11:36,989
所以实质重于形式

267
00:11:36,989 --> 00:11:39,828
coin base于是就支持了法案了

268
00:11:39,828 --> 00:11:42,149
coin base的股票仍然调整

269
00:11:42,149 --> 00:11:43,489
没有太多的上涨

270
00:11:43,489 --> 00:11:45,288
币圈没有之前热闹了

271
00:11:45,288 --> 00:11:47,188
交易平台营收下降

272
00:11:47,188 --> 00:11:48,909
股价以调整为主

273
00:11:48,909 --> 00:11:51,789
昨天in clarity法案大涨20%

274
00:11:51,789 --> 00:11:55,639
的稳定币公司circle今天正常回调趋势

275
00:11:55,639 --> 00:11:56,580
并没有改变

276
00:11:56,580 --> 00:11:58,519
底部已经日渐明朗

277
00:11:58,519 --> 00:12:00,480
今天我公开账户截图

278
00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:01,679
20.8万

279
00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,279
账上两只半导体

280
00:12:03,279 --> 00:12:05,139
英伟达表现不怎么样

281
00:12:05,139 --> 00:12:08,039
高通今天大涨10.79%

282
00:12:08,039 --> 00:12:08,659
嗨

283
00:12:08,659 --> 00:12:10,799
别人在存储谷里边吃肉

284
00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:13,620
我这难得闻到也肉香啊

285
00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:15,360
谷歌是第二仓位

286
00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:16,659
创了历史新高

287
00:12:16,659 --> 00:12:18,190
快成蛊王了

288
00:12:18,190 --> 00:12:20,570
我在谷歌备受质疑时买入

289
00:12:20,570 --> 00:12:24,159
买入时间甚至是早于巴菲特一路持有不动

290
00:12:24,159 --> 00:12:27,940
到现在是这个公开账户最成功的一笔交易

291
00:12:27,940 --> 00:12:29,899
好今天的节目就分享到这里

292
00:12:29,899 --> 00:12:30,840
感谢大家收看

293
00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:32,080
我们下期节目再见

294
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:32,779
拜拜

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