美股只有急跌机构才能够洗盘 机会都是跌出来的! 抓下一轮板块轮动领涨股

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Hello

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朋友们好

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这里是cm美国注册市场技术分析师的频道

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今天是6月6日

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周六为大家来做美股走势的更新

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本周五美股出现了暴跌

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QQQ下跌了快5%

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标普2.5%

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罗素3.5%

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下跌最多的是半导体

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一度下跌了10%

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在这样的市场行情下

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我知道视频前的朋友

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你应该是挺恐慌的

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首先呢不要恐慌

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目前来看

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只是出现了一个正常的一个自然的调整

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你们要知道的是嗯

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无论是再强的牛市

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它也不会是一直上涨

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就好像很多朋友会看f one的赛事车

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跑一跑

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它要加油换胎

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或者呢你去看网球或者是足球

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中间呢也都会有中场休息

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这个美股也是一样的

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它涨一涨的呢

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它或者以回调来修复这个指标

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就是涨的多了

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总会有人这个获利盘出逃

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那再配合消息面

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比如说本周五的这个非农数据

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还有就是这一周这个油价上涨

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造成的这个一系列的一个反应等等

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都会是这个导火索

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在牛市里面

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牛市最常见的就是急跌

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因为不急跌的话呢

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嗯大家都不下车呃

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所以说呢之前比如说这一路看着长得心慌的

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朋友们一直在等集会机会呢都是跌出来的

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其实从周四就开始下跌了哈

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半导体

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然后呢QQQ的话呢是从本周三开始下跌的

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那这回调了三天以后呢

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这个盈亏比更好了

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那我在过去一个月呢

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也是给给朋友们展示了我们的仓位的

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我们的仓位呢比如说跑的最好的

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之前我跟大家讲的DIO和arm呢

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我在上周的视频里面专门跟大家讲了

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不要看我们的调和arm涨了这么多了

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你们现在才有开场

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现在就不是开仓的时候了

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现在是止盈的时候

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我在上期视频里面专门提示了风险

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另外呢上周我还跟大家讲了

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最近呢可以去布局一下这个软件板块的行情

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过去两周我还跟大家讲了

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这个主要是关注软件板块的治下来一回踩

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那机会也是更好了

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上期视频专门给大家展示了一些

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就是我们呃软件股的例子

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比如说DDOG啊

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TWLO啊

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还有啊FOOG啊

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frog等等多软件下的这个股

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那其实呢我们也是5月底的时候呢

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在这个区间呢

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184左右买了这个TWLO

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那其实呢你可以看到这一波回踩之后呢

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你要看一下哪一些股呢是最抗跌的

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什么意思呢

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就好比说你看QQQ周五跌下去了

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20日均线标普跌下去了

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20日均线IWM地下圈圈

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10日均线

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半导体地下圈圈10日均线

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然而你看哪一些板块还没有跌下去10日均线的

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比如说IGV这个软件板块

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它在20日均线上站住了

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这说明什么

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说明了这个软件板块

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还是要比这个硬件板块要抗跌啊

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所以说这次回踩的时候呢

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还没有布局软件板块的呢

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那你就该去布局一些了

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适时做一个这个仓位的资金调整

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就比如说好比就周五出现这样下跌以后

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如果呢你满仓都是像是比如说半导体啊

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或者说之前嗯走的比较好的这个储存板块

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那你肯定是非常难受的

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因为这出现很强跌的情况下

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这就是对一个仓位

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这个资金的一个你需要去做一个梳理

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看一下怎么样的去均衡配置

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就像上期视频我教大家的

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要资金怎么样去抓住

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更复利更快呢

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就比如说好

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你把资金布局到这个板块了

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比如说前段时间布语句硬件板块

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那意见板块涨的多呢

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你就只赢一部分

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就好比说我们本周一和周二呢

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也是主要呢是对我们之前涨的多的一些个股呢

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去做了一个分批止盈

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那这周当然我们这个推篓

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是5月22号就已经买入了

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即使是出现了这个回踩

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仍然呢是将近23%的盈利

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那推漏的话呢

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TWO呢还没有买入的话

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大家可以考虑一下

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当然可能也他也许回不到

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就是我们的这个均价附近了

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这但是呢如果说这个推漏你可以找找机会

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或者说呢还是去看一下其他软件软件板块下

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现在基本面好的公司

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我上个周末排查了一下

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大概有那么二三十家

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二三十家呢

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你就是看一下你哪一家的那个软

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那个基本面你能看得懂

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或者是心态好一些呢

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就优先选哪一些家

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这一周呢就是下跌的时候呢

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软件板块还是稍微要抗跌一些的

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还有什么板块抗跌呢

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就比如说你可以看到XLF是金融板块

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周五不下跌

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反而还涨

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周四也涨的

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那金融板块可以看一看

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那还有什么板块呢

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就比如说是呃这个医疗板块

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那也是是比较抗跌的

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周三周四周五连着涨了三天

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刚好是跟这个纳指100的这个相反

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其实最近呃就这一周回调最多呢

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主要是科技板块

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因为涨的多了呃

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总是要回调的嘛

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大家再讲一下

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目前的回调是机会啊

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今年下半年我再跟大家

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首先说一点

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我们的主要思路呢就是买跌

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什么意思呢

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不多美股呢基本上是每一两个月

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最晚三个月左右呢

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就会出现一个不同程度的一个回踩

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可以算回踩低一点

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比如说200%分之五

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或者呢可以回踩多一点

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5%到10%

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这都是牛市正常的回踩

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那么今年下半年你的主要思路呢就是去买回踩

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那这次回踩是什么呀

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就是机会啊

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这次呢一定是一个机会

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大家要抓住好了啊

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尤其是之前恐高的

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现在是个非常好的机会

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那你就可以看

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也不是说科技股板块呢就没有机会了

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科技这个股板块下还分了很多个

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就哪怕还是硬件和软件

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下面还比如说网络安全等等

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它都分了很多个板块

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所以说呢大家也可以去抓一下

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看一下这次回踩哪一些板块

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哪一些个股呢是比这个指数抗跌的

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那么这些呢就是潜在下一波上涨的领导股

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另外呢QQ和标普再看一下

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虽然说呢跌下去了20日均线

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但是呢你拿周线图来看的话呢

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那是距离这个周线图的至ma还差3%

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你可以看到其实过去的牛市啊

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比如说从2025年

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一直到2026年的这一波上涨

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QQQ呢它强一点的呢

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就是这个周线级别的5ma就止跌

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那回踩多点的话呢

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就到10ma就止跌

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那么你看本周回调了以后呢

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刚好到了周线级别的5ma了

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这就是个左侧埋伏的一个点位

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那下次什么时候接呢

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那下次的话呢就可以到

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比如就是说到施艾梅附近接

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这就是这两个支撑

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如果是做指数的朋友哈

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个标普也是一样的

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你可以看到没

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一般情况下上涨的一个呃情况

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就还比如说之前的上一波牛市吧

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对2020年的这一波

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你看到没

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他大部分呢浅一点的话呢

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回踩到周线级别的5A止跌

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回踩的就正常

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回踩呢就10ma再回踩呢也就是到20ma了

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所以说呢如果说你是左侧交易的话

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周线级别的5ma

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周线级别的10ma

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周线级别的20ma

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如果20ma到不了的话呢

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那你到时候再看

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起码呢你5MMA10ma之前加了

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那如果10ma到不了呢

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你起码5MMA这附近加仓了

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这样的话呢就没有白回踩给你个机会

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这就是一个以个稍微大点的周期来看呢

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这是教同学们的哈

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这个呢是指数牛市的话

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一般短的话呢是回调一周左右

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也就是这么3~55个交易日左右

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多一点的话就是3~67个交易日

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那如果说长一点的话呢

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大概呢是回调1~4周

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但大部分的这个回调呢都是在1~3周左右

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这是个牛市的一个回踩的区间

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这个牛市的正常回踩里呢

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每一次回调都是机会

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但回调晚回调的时候

227
00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:53,000
你买什么呢

228
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,399
或者呢你可以买指数

229
00:07:54,399 --> 00:07:56,000
就像我之前跟大家讲的

230
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:57,740
适合大部分人的方法是什么呢

231
00:07:57,740 --> 00:07:59,300
你有一个长线账户

232
00:07:59,300 --> 00:08:01,389
你主要呢就是长持指数

233
00:08:01,389 --> 00:08:04,230
另外一个呢如果你是在做个中短线账户呢

234
00:08:04,230 --> 00:08:06,089
那你就可以做一些强势板块

235
00:08:06,089 --> 00:08:09,230
因为强势板块它爆发起来呢上涨速度更快

236
00:08:09,230 --> 00:08:13,170
那这些强势板块呢大家要知道每一轮回踩之后

237
00:08:13,170 --> 00:08:15,189
上一波的强势板块的个股

238
00:08:15,189 --> 00:08:17,889
不一定就是下一轮板块的强势个股

239
00:08:17,889 --> 00:08:18,670
为什么呢

240
00:08:18,670 --> 00:08:20,589
好比说嗯之前的话呢

241
00:08:20,589 --> 00:08:23,290
嗯3月份回调之前有一个涨很好的个股呢

242
00:08:23,290 --> 00:08:25,269
就是LATE指数见底后呢

243
00:08:25,269 --> 00:08:26,829
4月份其实到6月份

244
00:08:26,829 --> 00:08:28,790
这两个月基本上呢都是横盘哈

245
00:08:28,790 --> 00:08:30,800
而清什么是新进的股呢

246
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,019
就比如说arm这波我们抓的arm

247
00:08:33,019 --> 00:08:34,519
你可以周线级别来看

248
00:08:34,519 --> 00:08:37,139
其实呢他从2024年一直到这个

249
00:08:37,139 --> 00:08:38,679
2026年的4月底

250
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,038
就是这个上上个月底一直都是横盘震荡

251
00:08:42,038 --> 00:08:45,999
结果呢上一波的这个领导股LITE不涨了

252
00:08:45,999 --> 00:08:47,879
现在呢就是换一些其他的个股

253
00:08:47,879 --> 00:08:49,078
比如说arm涨了

254
00:08:49,078 --> 00:08:52,678
所以说就这就是为什么大家要知道上一轮上涨

255
00:08:52,678 --> 00:08:53,418
好的个股

256
00:08:53,418 --> 00:08:54,759
有的会继续涨

257
00:08:54,759 --> 00:08:55,879
有的不会继续涨

258
00:08:55,879 --> 00:08:57,980
这会儿呢就要你来做判断了

259
00:08:57,980 --> 00:08:58,899
SNTK呢

260
00:08:58,899 --> 00:09:01,620
大家都知道是最最近一年多的股王哈

261
00:09:01,620 --> 00:09:03,220
呃之前就涨的比较多了

262
00:09:03,220 --> 00:09:03,940
他休息一下

263
00:09:03,940 --> 00:09:04,940
这又涨的比较多

264
00:09:04,940 --> 00:09:06,629
这又是一个延续的状态

265
00:09:06,629 --> 00:09:08,929
所以说这个呢都是不一定的

266
00:09:08,929 --> 00:09:10,350
有的是会继续涨

267
00:09:10,350 --> 00:09:12,190
有的呢是不会继续涨的

268
00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:14,870
所以说呢这个大家要做一个判断

269
00:09:14,870 --> 00:09:16,860
什么下一波会继续涨呢

270
00:09:16,860 --> 00:09:18,299
就比如说我跟大家讲过的

271
00:09:18,299 --> 00:09:20,480
你看哪一些个股和板块呢

272
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,320
是比这个指数呢是抗跌的

273
00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,080
当然如果说大家想要获得最新的这个消息

274
00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,559
比如说像我在我们的交易圈里面

275
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:30,840
根据这个指数的位置

276
00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,419
会给大家仓位呢是做一个建议

277
00:09:33,419 --> 00:09:37,889
同时呢还会跟大家每周帮大家抓这个板块轮动

278
00:09:37,889 --> 00:09:40,730
第一时间还有抓涨得快的这些个股呢

279
00:09:40,730 --> 00:09:43,620
我们也都是在第一时间分享在我们交易圈里面

280
00:09:43,620 --> 00:09:46,419
那其实呢不只是就是做这些个股

281
00:09:46,419 --> 00:09:48,919
我们呢也会做这个仓位呢给出建议

282
00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:50,840
好比说大家可以看到没

283
00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:51,440
Q q q

284
00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,080
这个呢是在6月3日

285
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:54,299
这是个开始下跌吧

286
00:09:54,299 --> 00:09:55,039
6月2日

287
00:09:55,039 --> 00:09:55,799
这是最后一天

288
00:09:55,799 --> 00:09:56,320
上涨

289
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:57,200
当天

290
00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,370
我即使呢是在我们交易圈里面给了一个复盘

291
00:10:01,370 --> 00:10:02,769
我当时是这么说的

292
00:10:02,769 --> 00:10:05,559
在我们教育圈里会给大家一个指数温度计

293
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,419
是温度呢是1~100

294
00:10:07,419 --> 00:10:09,600
这周二呢这个指数温度计计呢

295
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,009
距离满格只剩不到1%

296
00:10:12,009 --> 00:10:15,230
所以说呢上周五已经处于温度高点

297
00:10:15,230 --> 00:10:16,450
今天再往上走

298
00:10:16,450 --> 00:10:18,710
是一个信号的强化和确认

299
00:10:18,710 --> 00:10:21,049
市场在高温区持续加热

300
00:10:21,049 --> 00:10:22,828
说明短线动能还在

301
00:10:22,828 --> 00:10:25,828
但也意味着积累的回踩压力越来越大

302
00:10:25,828 --> 00:10:29,629
你们可以在脑海里想象成拉弹簧向一边拉满后

303
00:10:29,629 --> 00:10:31,750
必然会向着平衡点靠拢

304
00:10:31,750 --> 00:10:33,210
这个呢是在QQQ

305
00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:36,049
在6月2日及时在我们这个交易圈说的

306
00:10:36,049 --> 00:10:37,129
结果呢

307
00:10:37,129 --> 00:10:39,129
在这个仓位建议里呢

308
00:10:39,129 --> 00:10:41,769
我还专门写到了仓位上的逻辑呢

309
00:10:41,769 --> 00:10:44,809
就是周二我给我们交易圈的朋友的仓位

310
00:10:44,809 --> 00:10:47,360
逻辑呢是比周五还要清新

311
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,539
新仓位在这个读数下需要更加谨慎

312
00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:53,120
短期内价格已经严重偏离均值

313
00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,799
历史上每次出现这种毒素以后

314
00:10:55,799 --> 00:10:58,779
都会经历任程度的这个降温回踩

315
00:10:58,779 --> 00:11:00,200
我们不需要猜顶

316
00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,539
但把更大比例的浮盈变成真实利润

317
00:11:03,539 --> 00:11:07,799
以及把现金比例提高到一个舒适的水平

318
00:11:07,799 --> 00:11:10,539
是现在最符合概率的动作

319
00:11:10,539 --> 00:11:13,440
所以说呢这个是6月2日给我们的提醒之后呢

320
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:14,339
夏天三跌

321
00:11:14,339 --> 00:11:16,658
那我们群里的小伙伴也有人反映呢

322
00:11:16,658 --> 00:11:18,778
就是在这天看到我的提示以后呢

323
00:11:18,778 --> 00:11:22,039
就是加大了他持仓现金的比例

324
00:11:22,039 --> 00:11:24,240
那这期视频呢我想跟大家啊

325
00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,500
就再强调一下这次的回踩

326
00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:27,490
大家不要慌

327
00:11:27,490 --> 00:11:29,009
机会呢是跌出来了

328
00:11:29,009 --> 00:11:29,870
仍然是牛市

329
00:11:29,870 --> 00:11:31,409
还没有说走坏

330
00:11:31,409 --> 00:11:33,120
仍然呢是上升趋势

331
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,080
另外呢同时大家再看一点这个CN恐慌指数

332
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,000
今天呢也终于也是这个降下来了一些

333
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,399
到了42就说明现在恐慌了

334
00:11:41,399 --> 00:11:43,320
一般情况下在牛市里面

335
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,399
如果说是呃两三天到一周的回踩呢

336
00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:48,200
差不多到50以下呢

337
00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:49,639
就是一个恐慌了

338
00:11:49,639 --> 00:11:52,559
如果说他要进行额更长的回调

339
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,080
比如说两周左右呢

340
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,470
那可能会甚至呢能到20多左右

341
00:11:56,470 --> 00:11:58,870
那现在呢差不多到了40度左右呢

342
00:11:58,870 --> 00:12:03,259
也是是一个符合就是左侧额加仓的第一个位置

343
00:12:03,259 --> 00:12:06,039
那下一个如果说这个恐慌指数呢

344
00:12:06,039 --> 00:12:07,200
能到30以下呢

345
00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:08,519
又是下一个加仓点位

346
00:12:08,519 --> 00:12:10,190
配合刚才我给你们的指数

347
00:12:10,190 --> 00:12:13,049
另外呢再看一下上次我跟大家看过的AI

348
00:12:13,049 --> 00:12:14,769
这个散户情绪调查

349
00:12:14,769 --> 00:12:15,870
只有30%

350
00:12:15,870 --> 00:12:19,129
6.3的散户呢是看涨37%的人呢

351
00:12:19,129 --> 00:12:20,990
更多点的人呢是要看跌一点

352
00:12:20,990 --> 00:12:23,649
虽然呢是比5月27日看跌的人呢

353
00:12:23,649 --> 00:12:24,549
降下来一些

354
00:12:24,549 --> 00:12:27,789
但是呢仍然现在呢还是大家都不是

355
00:12:27,789 --> 00:12:30,120
还是很嗯这个bullish看涨

356
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:34,100
这也是为什么等到散户情绪真的高昂的时候呢

357
00:12:34,100 --> 00:12:36,820
反而可能就是一个股市的一个中期高点

358
00:12:36,820 --> 00:12:38,230
但目前呢也还没有到

359
00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:39,690
所以呢综上所述

360
00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:41,539
大家抓住这次机会啊

361
00:12:41,539 --> 00:12:43,080
机会呢是跌出来了

362
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:44,080
大家不要慌

363
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,179
之前恐高的呢

364
00:12:45,179 --> 00:12:46,580
现在终于降温了

365
00:12:46,580 --> 00:12:47,799
牛市就是这样子的

366
00:12:47,799 --> 00:12:49,440
涨的时候呢你不敢买

367
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:50,240
跌的时候呢

368
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,460
他给你跌的把你吓得也不敢买

369
00:12:52,460 --> 00:12:55,448
这时候呢大家就要做好交易计划嗯

370
00:12:55,448 --> 00:12:57,869
勇敢的呢就是去做多是没有问题的

371
00:12:57,869 --> 00:12:59,328
那这期视频就到这里

372
00:12:59,328 --> 00:13:00,539
感谢大家的收看

373
00:13:00,539 --> 00:13:02,179
那我们下期视频再见

374
00:13:02,179 --> 00:13:04,700
老朋友们记得一定要记得帮忙点一个赞

375
00:13:04,700 --> 00:13:05,539
不管在哪里

376
00:13:05,539 --> 00:13:08,580
我都是尽量每周新的再出一期视频呢给大家

377
00:13:08,580 --> 00:13:10,679
那老朋友们记得一定要帮忙点一个赞

378
00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,120
新朋友还没有订阅的呢

379
00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:13,620
一定要记得点个订阅

380
00:13:13,620 --> 00:13:15,159
那么我们下期视频再见

381
00:13:15,159 --> 00:13:15,919
拜拜

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