美伊停火利好消费利好黄金

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美伊战争这一次基本上算是停火了

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虽然是签了两个月的暂停协议

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但是这两个月估计就是嘿嘿收收尾

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擦擦屁股差不多了

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实际上美国现在是非常非常难受的

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就拿这个油价

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其实我前两个月发了很多美国油价的视频啊

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主要是想告诉大家

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这个油价影响了美国的方方面面

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就说南丁片

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为什么川普最近老是遭到枪击啊

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就是美国底层老百姓真的快活不下去了

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他的余价带来的是

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除了占美国老百姓15%到20的

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石油开支的翻倍以外呢

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最关键是它的食物对

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就15

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你去超市看看

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基本上涨了30%对

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就是它的通货膨胀又有高起

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本来川普呢想降息

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如果这是桩涨价

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那不可能再降息了

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所以这是一个最致命的问题啊

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其实还有几个很大的原因是什么

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就是就选举这家伙能把这个共和党带沟里去了

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所以他现在呢控制通胀

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推动降息对吧

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还一个呢就是美股的稳定性

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其实川普他很在意股市啊

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就是你评价他在任期间做的好与不好

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只要是股市崩盘

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那川普呢第一责任人

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所以就目前来讲

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除了几个AI相关的公司

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美股其他类的都是跌的一塌糊涂

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所以接下来你会看到美股的消费啊

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会有一些改进了

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所以呢你们嘿嘿想买便宜货的

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优先考虑的是美股的消费类的

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对这个是非常非常关键的

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第三个呢就是制造业的问题

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就是其实这次川普去中国

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你可以看一下啊

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其实它看似是妥协啊

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包括啊变得文明了

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其主要原因是什么呢

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就是制造业就按照这个加息

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包括通胀速度呢

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美国的制造业回流啊遥遥无期

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美国的小企业负债率极高

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如果呢再不降息

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这企业基本上就要破产完了

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CA率会飙升啊

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所以呢油价带来的一系列问题

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不仅仅是生活开支的问题

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是企业根本就难以为继

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因为过去的这34年

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美股这些股市的上涨

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八九十%都到了AI上了

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其他的行业被吸血吸没了

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对很多公司你可以看一下通讯类的

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有三五倍的收益

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所以接下来这高负债的公司呢

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可能可以喘口气了

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对这个也是川普啊

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他必须要解决的问题

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而且他没有任何好处

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而且呢就是这一次中国的是吧

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状态是很好的哈

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其实贸易战呢对老美也是个很大的打击

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因为中国呢根本没有受到致命影响

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那中国是什么呢

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这老百姓承担了这部分通缩

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但是这个出海其实还是不错的

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那最起码你知道吧

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你一个月1000亿美金的这个贸易顺差

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去年都万亿的顺差嘛

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是这个很有问题

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而且呢你这个如果老美呢

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他这个通道下不来

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他后面的所有问题啊都是无从谈起

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你看看美国的国债好像多少了

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快40万亿了哈

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川普在任不但没有降国债

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结果呢还把国德雷进一步放大哈哈

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所以川普这一任

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说真的也是美国总统历史以来最失败的哈

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就是冲动就太冲动了啊

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拿捏稳德瑞拉的方式

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拿捏到伊朗上

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其实根本就不合适

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而且呢你看中东这个这些国家呢

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他们也害怕

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中东现在问题哪了

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就是所有的国家都靠石油啊

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带动了这个经济繁荣

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然后又带动了旅游业和地产业啊

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还有各种各样的这些数据中心的建设

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这家伙一战乱

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大家都害怕了

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首先呢你看我群里面好多朋友在那边买房的啊

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有一个啊

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有一个这个工厂的一个女老板在那边买房

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说啊环境多好多便宜多舒适

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结果我据我了解哈

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就去年高位买了之后啊

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就这几个月好像都腰短了

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就是就因为战争哈哈很多人都吓跑了是吧

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然后这些导弹乱飞

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所以呢这个中东呢

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其实是非常不希望咱能持续的

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因为它能持续油卖不出去对吧

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你这个油的这个随时随时来个导弹

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把油田炸毁了

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几年恢复不了

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大家呢非常非常痛苦

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所以他们就想着第一呢外资还进来哈

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第二个呢局势要稳定

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还有呢就是行业安全

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还有一个全球产业链一定要顺畅

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这中控的需求

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所以你看一下

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就是这这个他们几十年积累的东西呢

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让战争啊格局全给打破了

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所以呢加上伊朗现在的其实他也想谈

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你说说你说伊朗他们那么统治的目的是啥呀

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我就是想着对吧

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就是就是就他们这个躺着赚钱嘛是吧

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躺在8000万9000万伊朗的老百姓身上是吧

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去去去躺赢嘛

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但是结果呢你现在命都没了

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是不是你说你说穿不上A来

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你说干死了多少伊朗那些一把手吧

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所以你看伊朗他们也受不了

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所以他现在的问题是

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如果他不接受啊

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经理就彻底崩溃了对吧

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那老百姓肯定就反了嘛对吧

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金融体系也崩了嘛是吧

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而且也就是就说白了

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他外围的那些小弟们也受不了了

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没钱了嘛

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大哥没钱了

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小弟们咋活呀

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所以总体来讲就是没有人愿意打

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到现在

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没有一个人受益了

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现在相当于说对吧

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而且他现在是首先是停火啊

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恢复航运是吧

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然后呢缓和制裁

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至于什么原子弹之类的

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我估计他们也无心去弄了

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就至少目前来看的话弄没用了

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而且他这是很有意思啊

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你看这个伊朗的

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他这个啊总统说句话很经典啊

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他说我们绝对绝对不能妥协哈

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就是说白了就是我们的面子啊

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我们的形象不能妥协啊

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这句话大家有没有似曾相识啊

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这是给老百姓看的对吧

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让老百姓知道不是我们求饶的哈

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我们伊朗赢了对吧

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川普说我们美国赢了

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然后伊朗说他们赢了

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为什么都强调这一点呢

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因为都在糊弄底层老百姓对吧

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让老百姓觉得没钱可以

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但不能没了面子啊

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各位这个呢就是我我觉得很有意思的事啊

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为什么这个穷人最要面子哈

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为什么这个富人反而不怎么要面子呢是吧

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因为富人要的是利益啊

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穷人要的是尊严

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他尊严有时候比面子重在哪呢

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尊严可以拿到选票啊

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尊严呢可以让别人认为他是对的

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对这个很有意思啊

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就你一旦细细算账的时候

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你发现马上大家都吃亏了

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但你要从面子上谈

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唉哪个角度都可以对吧

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你也可以说赢麻了啊

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你也可以说我们赢得战争

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你也可以说啊

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我们还是牺牲了很多这些啊的英雄哈

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带来了一个和平

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对

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但是呢你要从这个理智来看哈哈

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你发现白牺牲了

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为啥呢

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他没得到任何的改善

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对这就是这个历史和真相

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谎言和真相

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各位所以很多时候呢把面子去掉

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然后仔细算算理智哈

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你就知道谁在裸泳了

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