BV1eNR4BKE28 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,580 大家好 2 00:00:00,580 --> 00:00:02,439 今天我们要来拆解一份 3 00:00:02,439 --> 00:00:04,719 绝对重量级的华尔街研报 4 00:00:04,719 --> 00:00:07,000 这份来自高盛的最新报告 5 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,000 不仅把整个科技基础知识 6 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:10,939 的下一步大棋给摸了个透 7 00:00:10,939 --> 00:00:14,929 更给出了一个让人倒吸一口凉气的AMD目标价 8 00:00:14,929 --> 00:00:16,269 咱们今天不搞虚的 9 00:00:16,269 --> 00:00:17,589 直接带大家看看 10 00:00:17,589 --> 00:00:19,920 为什么最顶尖的分析师会认为 11 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:21,239 人工智能已经进入了 12 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:21,480 一个 13 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,359 能够彻底重塑整个硬件市场格局的全新阶段 14 00:00:25,359 --> 00:00:26,640 开门见山 15 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,839 咱们必须先死死盯住 16 00:00:28,839 --> 00:00:31,039 这个极具视觉冲击力的数字 17 00:00:31,039 --> 00:00:32,350 450美元 18 00:00:32,350 --> 00:00:32,909 没错 19 00:00:32,909 --> 00:00:35,969 高盛刚刚把AMD未来12个月的目标价 20 00:00:35,969 --> 00:00:37,630 直接拉到了这个位置 21 00:00:37,630 --> 00:00:38,878 这意味着什么 22 00:00:38,878 --> 00:00:41,058 就意味着跟现在的股价相比 23 00:00:41,058 --> 00:00:45,210 他们认为AMD还有整整27%的暴涨空间 24 00:00:45,210 --> 00:00:46,210 说实在在 25 00:00:46,210 --> 00:00:49,549 眼下科技股估值普遍都不低的大环境里 26 00:00:49,549 --> 00:00:53,100 一家顶级投行敢对这么庞大成熟的芯片巨头 27 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:55,060 做出这种激进的看涨预测 28 00:00:55,060 --> 00:00:57,140 绝对不可能是一拍脑袋决定的 29 00:00:57,140 --> 00:01:00,759 那么到底是什么底气支撑着这450美元呢 30 00:01:00,759 --> 00:01:03,640 高盛瓜告里有一句原话特别有意思 31 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:04,959 我给大家念一下 32 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,189 他们说上调评级 33 00:01:07,189 --> 00:01:08,489 一方面是因为 34 00:01:08,489 --> 00:01:13,329 数据中心GPU在2027年及以后大有可为 35 00:01:13,329 --> 00:01:14,760 这个大家其实都懂 36 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,079 但更关键的是 37 00:01:16,079 --> 00:01:16,739 前半句 38 00:01:16,739 --> 00:01:21,340 他们预计代理型AI会给AAMD的服务器CPU业务 39 00:01:21,340 --> 00:01:22,900 带来巨大的顺风 40 00:01:22,900 --> 00:01:23,739 划重点了 41 00:01:23,739 --> 00:01:24,200 朋友们 42 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,700 这不仅仅是大家平时天天听到的GPU抢位战 43 00:01:27,700 --> 00:01:32,009 这实际上更是CPU在AI时代的一次强势回归 44 00:01:32,009 --> 00:01:34,909 为了让大家彻底搞懂这个大逻辑 45 00:01:34,909 --> 00:01:37,640 咱们今天的脉络非常清晰 46 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,939 首先看看什么是代理型AI的崛起 47 00:01:40,939 --> 00:01:44,200 接着聊聊数据中心的GPU热潮 48 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,079 然后再探讨一下为什么传统业务的疲软 49 00:01:48,079 --> 00:01:49,539 大家根本不在乎 50 00:01:49,539 --> 00:01:51,558 最后咱们用数字说话 51 00:01:51,558 --> 00:01:55,039 算算它的估值模型和可能踩到的坑 52 00:01:55,039 --> 00:01:58,310 好咱们直接进入第一步 53 00:01:58,310 --> 00:02:00,219 代理型AI的绝技 54 00:02:00,219 --> 00:02:04,359 这绝对是整份报告里最核心的技术大转向 55 00:02:04,359 --> 00:02:07,769 算力开始疯狂向推理端倾斜 56 00:02:07,769 --> 00:02:10,979 你可能要问到底什么叫代理型AI 57 00:02:10,979 --> 00:02:14,319 别被这些干巴巴的行业黑话给唬住了 58 00:02:14,319 --> 00:02:15,439 简单来说啊 59 00:02:15,439 --> 00:02:18,530 以前的AI更像是陪你聊天的百科全书 60 00:02:18,530 --> 00:02:20,389 而现在的代理型AI 61 00:02:20,389 --> 00:02:23,579 是真正能帮你主动干活的数字员工 62 00:02:23,579 --> 00:02:26,419 他要进行极其复杂的逻辑思考 63 00:02:26,419 --> 00:02:28,979 要在不同数据库里调取信息 64 00:02:28,979 --> 00:02:31,759 甚至帮你直接调用外部工具 65 00:02:31,759 --> 00:02:32,900 大家发现没有 66 00:02:32,900 --> 00:02:35,340 这种精细化的统筹和推理工作 67 00:02:35,340 --> 00:02:38,139 其实极其吃server CPU的算力 68 00:02:38,139 --> 00:02:41,370 光靠大力出奇迹的GPU可是搞不定的 69 00:02:41,370 --> 00:02:43,490 咱们来看看这事儿一旦铺开 70 00:02:43,490 --> 00:02:44,319 有多可怕 71 00:02:44,319 --> 00:02:46,759 这张图直接把底牌亮出来了 72 00:02:46,759 --> 00:02:47,900 高盛预计 73 00:02:47,900 --> 00:02:51,780 随着这种AI代理在企业和个人用户里全面普及 74 00:02:51,780 --> 00:02:53,300 到2030年 75 00:02:53,300 --> 00:02:55,560 全球大模型的代币消耗量 76 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,120 也就是token的使用量 77 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,829 会暴增到现在的24倍以上 78 00:02:59,829 --> 00:03:01,729 大家想想24倍啊 79 00:03:01,729 --> 00:03:04,408 这不是简简单单的算力需求增加 80 00:03:04,408 --> 00:03:06,219 这简直就是算力黑洞 81 00:03:06,219 --> 00:03:07,659 现有的server去世 82 00:03:07,659 --> 00:03:10,930 infrastructure真的会被压得喘不过气来 83 00:03:10,930 --> 00:03:12,710 既然蛋糕这么大 84 00:03:12,710 --> 00:03:15,069 谁能吃下最大的一块呢 85 00:03:15,069 --> 00:03:17,090 报告里的这个对比特略 86 00:03:17,090 --> 00:03:20,620 关键在咱们个人手机或电脑上的消费者 87 00:03:20,620 --> 00:03:24,099 AI以后可能会偏向功耗更低的arm芯片 88 00:03:24,099 --> 00:03:26,280 但是在那些真正能赚大钱 89 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:30,490 利润极其丰厚的企业级市场情况完全不一样 90 00:03:30,490 --> 00:03:31,830 企业看重的是什么 91 00:03:31,830 --> 00:03:35,180 是跟我以前的旧系统能不能完美兼容 92 00:03:35,180 --> 00:03:37,879 而全球绝大部分企业的it底座 93 00:03:37,879 --> 00:03:41,399 依然牢牢绑在传统的X86架构上 94 00:03:41,399 --> 00:03:44,519 也这恰恰就是AMD的老巢所在 95 00:03:44,519 --> 00:03:46,919 这等于是把一块巨大的肥肉 96 00:03:46,919 --> 00:03:49,329 直接送到了AMD的嘴边 97 00:03:49,329 --> 00:03:50,609 顺着这个逻辑 98 00:03:50,609 --> 00:03:53,769 数据中心现在正在发生翻天覆地的变化 99 00:03:53,769 --> 00:03:57,389 以前啊卖八个GPU才需要配一个CPU 100 00:03:57,389 --> 00:04:00,650 现在呢这比例直接变成了二比一 101 00:04:00,650 --> 00:04:03,000 这CPU的销量还不得起飞吗 102 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,599 而且企业为了省电省空间 103 00:04:05,599 --> 00:04:07,520 都在疯狂升级机房 104 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,360 这就需要核心数更多 105 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,079 当然也更贵的处理器 106 00:04:11,079 --> 00:04:15,239 这意味着对AMD来说不仅能卖出更多数量的芯片 107 00:04:15,239 --> 00:04:17,980 每一块芯片的价格还能卖的更贵 108 00:04:17,980 --> 00:04:18,800 更别提 109 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,180 他们现在还在一路蚕食竞争对手的市场份额了 110 00:04:22,180 --> 00:04:24,500 聊完了CPU的逆袭 111 00:04:24,500 --> 00:04:27,629 咱们立马进入第二个核心驱动力 112 00:04:27,629 --> 00:04:30,689 数据中心GPU的疯狂热潮 113 00:04:30,689 --> 00:04:34,069 这就关乎于基础建设的大规模扩张了 114 00:04:34,069 --> 00:04:35,389 六级瓦 115 00:04:35,389 --> 00:04:38,750 看到这个数字没有在数据中心这行当里 116 00:04:38,750 --> 00:04:39,930 咱们评估规模 117 00:04:39,930 --> 00:04:42,589 有时候看买多少花坎儿反倒不直观 118 00:04:42,589 --> 00:04:44,189 咱们看电力足迹 119 00:04:44,189 --> 00:04:47,430 六级瓦是个极其恐怖的天文数字 120 00:04:47,430 --> 00:04:48,949 而高盛特别点出 121 00:04:48,949 --> 00:04:52,589 这六级瓦仅仅只是meta这一家科技巨头 122 00:04:52,589 --> 00:04:55,439 搞GPU部署所带来的电力需求 123 00:04:55,439 --> 00:04:57,360 这你就知道这帮硅谷巨头 124 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,689 在AI基建上到底有多疯狂了 125 00:04:59,689 --> 00:05:02,589 咱们稍微拆解一下高盛的这本账 126 00:05:02,589 --> 00:05:03,810 你看这表格 127 00:05:03,810 --> 00:05:07,699 meta的短期的部署计划简直是一路狂奔 128 00:05:07,699 --> 00:05:10,399 预计从2026年的0.25几瓦 129 00:05:10,399 --> 00:05:14,069 直接飙升到2027年的1.25几瓦 130 00:05:14,069 --> 00:05:15,269 相较之下呢 131 00:05:15,269 --> 00:05:17,490 OpenAI的步子迈的相对稳妥 132 00:05:17,490 --> 00:05:18,370 保守一点 133 00:05:18,370 --> 00:05:20,430 也算是留足了安全边际 134 00:05:20,430 --> 00:05:23,120 但这传达了一个极其明确的信号 135 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:24,819 不管基建还是保守 136 00:05:24,819 --> 00:05:27,300 这些大佬们都在拿着真金白银 137 00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:29,360 在为未来的算力买单 138 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:30,819 好讲到这儿 139 00:05:30,819 --> 00:05:32,879 肯定有老玩家要举手了 140 00:05:32,879 --> 00:05:36,079 那AMD传统的电脑和游戏机业务 141 00:05:36,079 --> 00:05:37,420 不是还一塌糊涂吗 142 00:05:37,420 --> 00:05:42,279 没错这正是咱们第三部分要聊的房间里的大象 143 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:43,199 说实话 144 00:05:43,199 --> 00:05:47,350 AMD的传统基本盘确实正迎着逆风 145 00:05:47,350 --> 00:05:48,670 因为内存涨价 146 00:05:48,670 --> 00:05:52,319 预计到2026年PC出货量得掉个十个 147 00:05:52,319 --> 00:05:53,199 游戏主机 148 00:05:53,199 --> 00:05:54,100 大家也都知道 149 00:05:54,100 --> 00:05:56,100 这代机器差不多到寿命末期了 150 00:05:56,100 --> 00:05:57,240 肯定是卖不动的 151 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:01,449 但是高盛的分析师在这里释放了一个核心观点 152 00:06:01,449 --> 00:06:02,250 别慌 153 00:06:02,250 --> 00:06:03,230 这些破事儿 154 00:06:03,230 --> 00:06:04,720 华尔街全都知道 155 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,639 这些坏消息早就已经完全彻底的反映在AAMD 156 00:06:08,639 --> 00:06:09,819 现在的股价里了 157 00:06:09,819 --> 00:06:13,300 它再烂也不会成为砸盘的心理空 158 00:06:15,889 --> 00:06:20,709 就彻底明白为什么PC卖的不好已经无所谓了 159 00:06:20,709 --> 00:06:24,009 注意看代表数据中心这块颜色 160 00:06:24,009 --> 00:06:25,509 按照高盛的模型 161 00:06:25,509 --> 00:06:26,949 到2027年 162 00:06:26,949 --> 00:06:28,550 数据中心这块业务 163 00:06:28,550 --> 00:06:32,250 将以绝对优势碾压其他所有业务 164 00:06:32,250 --> 00:06:35,990 直接占到AMD总营收的75块以上 165 00:06:35,990 --> 00:06:36,810 老实说 166 00:06:36,810 --> 00:06:37,850 到那个时候 167 00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:39,870 AMD根本就不再是一家什么 168 00:06:39,870 --> 00:06:41,920 卖个人电脑芯片的公司了 169 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:46,160 它本质上已经就蜕变成了一家纯正的AI和数据 170 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:47,908 中心算力巨头 171 00:06:47,908 --> 00:06:50,709 那么咱们把所有的线索收拢 172 00:06:50,709 --> 00:06:52,168 进入最后一部分 173 00:06:52,168 --> 00:06:53,279 算算账 174 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,160 这450块的估值到底是怎么来的 175 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,839 以及咱们得提防哪些风险 176 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:03,658 其实华尔街的数学逻辑有时候简单粗暴的可爱 177 00:07:03,658 --> 00:07:06,879 高盛基于数据中心的狂飙突进 178 00:07:06,879 --> 00:07:09,678 把AAMD常态化的每股收益 179 00:07:09,678 --> 00:07:11,798 直接拉高到了15美元 180 00:07:11,798 --> 00:07:14,718 然后乘以30倍的市盈率 181 00:07:14,718 --> 00:07:16,699 得了15×30 182 00:07:16,699 --> 00:07:20,680 刚好就是咱们开头说的450美元目标价 183 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:21,420 当然了 184 00:07:21,420 --> 00:07:23,060 这套乘法做得顺滑 185 00:07:23,060 --> 00:07:24,019 前提是 186 00:07:24,019 --> 00:07:28,500 AMD的管理层必须得交出极其完美的执行力答卷 187 00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:32,769 咱们客观的看天下没有稳赚不赔的买卖 188 00:07:32,769 --> 00:07:35,430 这450美元的星辰大海 189 00:07:35,430 --> 00:07:40,209 全压在代理型AI的大爆发和GPU的顺利交付上 190 00:07:40,209 --> 00:07:41,689 但风险在哪啊 191 00:07:41,689 --> 00:07:45,310 万一meta或者OpenAI突然缩减开支 192 00:07:45,310 --> 00:07:46,720 放缓部署呢 193 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,480 又或者万一RM真的杀红了眼儿 194 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:54,120 把企业级X86的市场份额给抢走了呢 195 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,920 一旦这些雷暴了这套高估值逻辑 196 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,339 可就得打个大大的问号了 197 00:07:59,339 --> 00:08:03,360 所以看透了这份信息量爆表的研报之后 198 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,600 其实留给我们最大的悬念就是这个问题 199 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,939 当AI不再只会陪你聊天 200 00:08:08,939 --> 00:08:11,759 而是进化成能自己调兵遣将 201 00:08:11,759 --> 00:08:14,519 执行复杂任务的超级代理时 202 00:08:14,519 --> 00:08:18,540 老牌的X86架构真的还能稳坐钓鱼台 203 00:08:18,540 --> 00:08:22,178 成为撑起咱们智能未来的终极底座吗 204 00:08:22,178 --> 00:08:26,288 这不仅是AMD值不值450美元的灵魂拷问 205 00:08:26,288 --> 00:08:31,040 更是决定整个科技圈未来10年走向的终极剧本 206 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,220 感谢大家收看本期的深度解读 207 00:08:33,220 --> 00:08:35,139 希望今天的内容对你有启发 208 00:08:35,139 --> 00:08:36,658 咱们下期再见
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