【Financial Education】15只知名股票暴跌，现在该买还是该卖？

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所以让我给你们讲个故事

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有一次当我还是个孩子的时候

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我想自己做松饼并尝试制作

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当时

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我没有意识到小苏打和泡打粉是两种不同的东西

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所以我用小苏打做了松饼

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然后我尝了那块松饼

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然后我说

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啊

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这是什么

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这就是投资者现在对股市的感觉

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感谢大家加入我

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一如既往

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我们有戏剧性事件

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形势严峻

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纳斯达克下跌

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从历史高点下跌12.5%

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就在万圣节前达到低点

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看看外面的损失

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在这期视频中我们将讨论这些损失和机会

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所有这些情况

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十五只暴跌的知名股票

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我想继续并谈谈今天的主题

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在这期视频中我们将讨论这个

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这是一个主题

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呃

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哦

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我的天啊

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我刚发了三个小时前

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在X平台几乎病毒式传播

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现在已有近五十万次观看

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谈谈当前股市最该做什么

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就像我们现在所处的市场

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好的，接下来我要回应华尔街

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街头人士并听取他们的观点

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忙碌的时期

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各位

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我觉得这是连续几周了

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我录了周五的视频

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如果你看到我在YouTube录制

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周五视频

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你知道我们有戏剧性事件

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你知道我们有戏剧性事件

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通常周五

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我只是录我的私享股票群视频

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有时我还录Patreon视频

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但这可能只是一月一次，每周我录私享群视频

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对的

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但当我周五发布YouTube视频时

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你知道我们有戏剧性事件

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你知道现在真是疯狂的时代

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这就是我们得到的

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我会随时把最新动态告诉你们

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只需要你们做一件事

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如果你还没做的话

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请给我点个赞

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我非常感激每个人

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这件事已经完成了

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你根本不需要我说什么

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你就是最好的

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好的

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另外请订阅频道

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如果你想以后看到更多视频

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一百三十万订阅者

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在这里的反应频道

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不

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在这个时间点

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今天已经固定了评论

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大规模促销

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我们即将迎来

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四月一日

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笨蛋们

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别做傻事

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千倍折扣活动

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将享受五折优惠

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原价会员套餐

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这就是全部软件套件

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我日常都在使用

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稍后视频里会详细说明

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如果你想了解详情

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好的

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我留到后面再说

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但这是注册活动的固定评论

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以便及时收到

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好吧已经损失惨重了

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看看这些秸秆

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我说啊

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这就是我的潜在购买

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查看我的观看列表

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看看这破坏力

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我说这些股票已经崩盘了

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它们已经被彻底摧毁

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它们只会被不断摧毁

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继续这样

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看看艾尔夫

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这只股票已经完蛋了

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 hymns 今日下跌超7%

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罗宾汉下跌6%

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巴塔夫利亚下跌约6%

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天啊

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它既没有能量也没有能量

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服务现在覆盖所有软件股

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这些股票何时才能见底呢

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它们一路下跌直到 Chinatown

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Fubo 今天竭力试图反弹

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但最终还是收跌

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我说啊

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简直一片红盘

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全线收跌

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我给大家准备了一个月的业绩数据

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展示过去一个月的损失

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看看这些股票

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微软这位软性巨头

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微软单月下跌超11%

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英伟达过去一个月下跌超9%

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看看美光科技

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令人震惊的美光 MU

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我说啊

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这家公司可能是全球最强的

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现在看

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该股票单月下跌超14%

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仅过去一个月

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简直难以置信

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看看苹果

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苹果就像避风港股票

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但过去一个月也暴跌近9%

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看看谷歌

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看看 Meta

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天啊

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Meta 过去一个月暴跌20%

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谷歌下跌约11%过去一个月

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特斯拉下跌超11%

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你看特斯拉又大幅下挫

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我早就说过要平掉对冲头寸

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还会继续大幅下跌

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这就是市场规律

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连麦当劳这样的股票

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麦当劳下跌8.5%

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天啊

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看看星巴克跌至86美元

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星巴克下跌11.5%

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Chipotle

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Chipotle 过去一个月暴跌19%

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持续亏损

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家得宝下跌超14%

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过去一个月

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看看可口可乐下跌6%

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过去一个月

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怪物下跌了百分之十七

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过去一个月

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至少这让我对

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摄氏度对吧

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天啊

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宝洁公司股价过去一个月下跌近十三个百分点

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什么

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天啊

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这损失太大了

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这损失

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已经持续了

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嗯

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是的

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它正在经历这个

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兄弟

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市场现在正在经历这个

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我甚至有些医疗保健类股票

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比如丽珠下跌十四个百分点

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雅培实验室下跌百分之十点五，简直惊人

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而这仅仅发生在过去一个月

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现在看看这些摩根大通的股价

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几乎

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你知道我们可以称之为略低于八个百分点

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过去一个月

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美国银行下跌超过十个百分点

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富国银行下跌超过十个百分点

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各位听我说

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我要告诉你们一件非常重要的事

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稍后马上告诉你们这些股票现在到底在向你们传达什么

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维萨

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我说

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这通常是整个股市中最坚挺的股票之一

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过去一个月下跌略低于七个百分点

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美国运通

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整个股市中最高质量的公司之一下跌了十二点

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八个百分点过去一个月

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对啊，这损失

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所以当你看到这些金融股的表现

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现在处于糟糕境地

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对吧，听着

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这在告诉我们什么

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我会告诉你确切答案

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这在告诉你

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这是市场发出的衰退预警，但这并不意味着

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我们肯定会

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迎来衰退

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但当你看到这些超级优质银行股下跌

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当你看到像美国运通和维萨这样的优质股票被重创

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这比什么都像是衰退信号

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好的

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这要记在心里

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再说一次

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这会发生吗

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这不会发生吗

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我们拭目以待

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如果真的发生了

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这是不是坏消息

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这像中等程度的情况吗

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但这些股票通常

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你知道的

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这些股票不会无缘无故下跌

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我们就这么说吧

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好的

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你知道的

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小盘股

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高风险股票

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虽然这些可能很疯狂

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没错

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但我说这些是最高质量的

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整个股市中最优质的公司

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没错

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好的

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所以我发了这条

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呃

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此刻大约一小时前

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十五只著名股票大幅

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在我看来哪只最适合买入

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看看这个

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Snowflakes下跌4-5%

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从高位回落

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Meis下跌2.9%

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亚马逊下跌2.2%

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英伟达下跌2.1%

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Adobe下跌66%

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Service上涨5.2%

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Palantir上涨3.1%

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Mr Softy

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微软下跌3.4%

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顺便说一句

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Paler会跌得更多

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但它们被视为国防受益股

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对吧

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微软下跌3.4%

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我的天啊 Salesforce上涨5.1%

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特斯拉下跌2.7%

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甲骨文上涨5.9%

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Netflix上涨30%

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AMD上涨2.4%

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目前上涨5.2%

248
00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:12,759
Robinhood上涨5.2%

249
00:07:12,759 --> 00:07:15,079
我的意思是，这些著名股票正被无情摧毁

250
00:07:15,079 --> 00:07:15,939
没错

251
00:07:15,939 --> 00:07:18,920
我说这些才是最好的机会

252
00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,000
现在对长期投资者而言

253
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,699
接下来三到六个月表现最佳的股票是哪只

254
00:07:23,699 --> 00:07:25,519
谁知道呢，这纯粹是抛硬币

255
00:07:25,519 --> 00:07:25,819
你知道的

256
00:07:25,819 --> 00:07:28,149
我们去玩轮盘赌试试看吧

257
00:07:28,149 --> 00:07:28,649
好的

258
00:07:28,649 --> 00:07:29,529
但哪些股票

259
00:07:29,529 --> 00:07:30,889
我最看好长期前景的

260
00:07:30,889 --> 00:07:32,490
在这些Meta和亚马逊之间

261
00:07:32,490 --> 00:07:35,170
毫无疑问再次浮现脑海

262
00:07:35,170 --> 00:07:39,100
你知道现在市场最让我困扰的是

263
00:07:39,100 --> 00:07:43,459
好的是人们陷入这种思维

264
00:07:43,459 --> 00:07:45,060
认为一切都会反弹

265
00:07:45,060 --> 00:07:45,720
超级迅速

266
00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:46,079
没错

267
00:07:46,079 --> 00:07:47,439
这可能是潜在机会

268
00:07:47,439 --> 00:07:49,399
就像去年的解放日行情

269
00:07:49,399 --> 00:07:50,639
我们暴跌了股市

270
00:07:50,639 --> 00:07:53,600
然后迅速回升，赚了不少钱

271
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,089
这可能再次发生

272
00:07:55,290 --> 00:07:57,189
但不要寄予厚望

273
00:07:57,189 --> 00:07:59,430
不要假设去年会重演

274
00:07:59,430 --> 00:08:00,649
今年也会这样

275
00:08:00,649 --> 00:08:02,189
我看到太多这种言论

276
00:08:02,189 --> 00:08:04,189
今天在X平台看到很多帖子

277
00:08:04,189 --> 00:08:04,899
呃

278
00:08:04,899 --> 00:08:06,699
来自散户投资者

279
00:08:06,699 --> 00:08:08,160
谈论抄底

280
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:09,060
谈论

281
00:08:09,060 --> 00:08:09,459
你知道的

282
00:08:09,459 --> 00:08:10,699
买入看涨期权

283
00:08:10,699 --> 00:08:12,158
我说兄弟

284
00:08:12,158 --> 00:08:14,519
市场可能继续下跌六个月到一年

285
00:08:14,519 --> 00:08:16,119
你根本不清楚

286
00:08:16,119 --> 00:08:17,238
不知道会发生什么

287
00:08:17,238 --> 00:08:19,098
别大量买入看涨期权

288
00:08:19,098 --> 00:08:20,050
比如

289
00:08:20,050 --> 00:08:21,050
是否可能反弹

290
00:08:21,050 --> 00:08:21,610
就像之前那样

291
00:08:21,610 --> 00:08:22,870
解放日可能

292
00:08:22,870 --> 00:08:24,569
但我们也可能继续下跌

293
00:08:24,569 --> 00:08:25,629
直冲四季度

294
00:08:25,629 --> 00:08:28,720
所以要抓住市场机会

295
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,918
增持优质公司的持仓

296
00:08:31,918 --> 00:08:33,639
你知道这是关键一年

297
00:08:33,639 --> 00:08:34,599
要做买家

298
00:08:34,599 --> 00:08:34,918
买家

299
00:08:34,918 --> 00:08:36,678
买家并充分利用所有这些优惠

300
00:08:36,678 --> 00:08:40,070
但不要去杠杆和离场

301
00:08:40,070 --> 00:08:41,690
不要买入看涨期权

302
00:08:41,690 --> 00:08:45,129
仅仅因为亏损了并不意味着...

303
00:08:45,129 --> 00:08:46,549
这是完全不同的情况

304
00:08:46,549 --> 00:08:49,059
事情可能会相似

305
00:08:49,059 --> 00:08:52,340
但记住今年也可能让人想起2022年

306
00:08:52,340 --> 00:08:54,820
记住四季度发生了什么

307
00:08:54,820 --> 00:08:55,500
2021年

308
00:08:55,500 --> 00:08:56,899
我们当时见顶了市场

309
00:08:56,899 --> 00:09:01,250
然后市场在2022年暴跌

310
00:09:01,250 --> 00:09:03,049
实际上同样的事情正在发生

311
00:09:03,049 --> 00:09:04,870
市场在四季度见顶

312
00:09:04,870 --> 00:09:06,450
纳斯达克在四季度见顶

313
00:09:06,450 --> 00:09:09,039
就在万圣节前几天

314
00:09:09,039 --> 00:09:13,519
此后我们一路下跌下跌

315
00:09:13,519 --> 00:09:14,440
谁也说不准

316
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:16,240
这可能一路下跌到四季度

317
00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:16,559
说真的

318
00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,259
可能一路跌到2027年

319
00:09:18,259 --> 00:09:19,370
就像你不知道

320
00:09:19,370 --> 00:09:19,690
所以

321
00:09:19,690 --> 00:09:20,649
不要押注

322
00:09:20,649 --> 00:09:21,009
比如

323
00:09:21,009 --> 00:09:21,970
我们很快会反弹

324
00:09:21,970 --> 00:09:22,809
所以我清了杠杆

325
00:09:22,809 --> 00:09:24,349
或者该买看涨期权了

326
00:09:24,349 --> 00:09:25,489
并记住这一点

327
00:09:25,489 --> 00:09:26,229
女士们先生们

328
00:09:26,229 --> 00:09:27,528
我认为这非常重要

329
00:09:27,528 --> 00:09:28,269
我说这个

330
00:09:28,269 --> 00:09:31,208
这关乎数学计算

331
00:09:31,208 --> 00:09:35,250
如果你回看两个月前的情况

332
00:09:35,250 --> 00:09:38,559
杠杆敞口达到历史新高

333
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,360
不仅处于历史新高

334
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:42,759
更是远超历史峰值

335
00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:44,789
可能需要数月

336
00:09:44,789 --> 00:09:48,950
可能需要6到12个月消化泡沫

337
00:09:48,950 --> 00:09:52,409
消除疯狂杠杆并大幅降低数据

338
00:09:52,409 --> 00:09:53,379
好的

339
00:09:53,700 --> 00:09:55,259
这是需要记住的

340
00:09:55,259 --> 00:09:57,100
所以不要依赖这个

341
00:09:57,100 --> 00:09:57,980
所有市场肯定

342
00:09:57,980 --> 00:09:58,379
继续走低

343
00:09:58,379 --> 00:09:59,179
这就是2022年

344
00:09:59,179 --> 00:10:00,730
我们将在四季度见底

345
00:10:00,730 --> 00:10:01,370
不要见底

346
00:10:01,370 --> 00:10:03,409
不要假设

347
00:10:03,409 --> 00:10:03,649
哦

348
00:10:03,649 --> 00:10:03,889
这

349
00:10:03,889 --> 00:10:04,330
你知道吗

350
00:10:04,330 --> 00:10:04,970
解放日

351
00:10:04,970 --> 00:10:09,580
在中旬四月之后我们将大幅拉升这个市场

352
00:10:09,580 --> 00:10:10,759
但不要抱太大希望

353
00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:11,139
男人

354
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:15,839
只需投资优质公司并以合理价格买入

355
00:10:15,839 --> 00:10:20,038
持续增加持股比例保持无忧

356
00:10:20,038 --> 00:10:20,599
你知道的

357
00:10:20,599 --> 00:10:21,599
无论你的投资组合显示什么

358
00:10:21,599 --> 00:10:22,859
在未来六到十二个月

359
00:10:22,859 --> 00:10:23,479
无关紧要

360
00:10:23,479 --> 00:10:24,399
这只手

361
00:10:24,399 --> 00:10:28,039
你打算全部提现去买新平板电视

362
00:10:28,039 --> 00:10:29,639
然后用这笔钱换新车新房子

363
00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:32,980
我不这么认为，你们中有99%的人其实

364
00:10:32,980 --> 00:10:34,139
你们根本不会这么做

365
00:10:34,139 --> 00:10:38,190
你们正计划在未来十年二十年三十年积累财富

366
00:10:38,429 --> 00:10:40,389
所以接下来

367
00:10:40,389 --> 00:10:40,990
你知道的

368
00:10:40,990 --> 00:10:42,289
十年二十年三十年期间

369
00:10:42,289 --> 00:10:43,289
这才是关键

370
00:10:43,289 --> 00:10:44,029
没错

371
00:10:44,029 --> 00:10:45,700
这是需要记住的要点

372
00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:47,659
还有其他绝佳机会

373
00:10:47,659 --> 00:10:47,899
而且

374
00:10:47,899 --> 00:10:49,299
这些讨论中的很多内容确实很划算

375
00:10:49,299 --> 00:10:50,580
我认为Adobe是个绝佳投资

376
00:10:50,580 --> 00:10:53,240
但咱们拭目以待，现在看看

377
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:53,980
我认为这是个绝佳机会

378
00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:55,940
Service Now是我今天刚买入的股票

379
00:10:55,940 --> 00:10:56,759
就是今天

380
00:10:56,759 --> 00:10:57,230
没错

381
00:10:57,230 --> 00:10:58,070
软先生

382
00:10:58,070 --> 00:10:59,590
我从未购买过微软股票

383
00:10:59,590 --> 00:11:02,720
但如今微软看起来极具投资价值

384
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:03,899
下跌了三四个百分点

385
00:11:03,899 --> 00:11:06,580
微软的估值变得极具吸引力

386
00:11:06,580 --> 00:11:08,399
让我们来看看这里

387
00:11:08,399 --> 00:11:10,580
软先生

388
00:11:10,580 --> 00:11:14,549
软先生现在处于

389
00:11:14,870 --> 00:11:15,309
呃

390
00:11:15,309 --> 00:11:17,549
嘿儿子

391
00:11:17,549 --> 00:11:20,139
我现在正在录制视频

392
00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:21,679
是的

393
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:22,559
是的

394
00:11:23,799 --> 00:11:24,000
是的

395
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:24,539
但我在录制

396
00:11:24,539 --> 00:11:25,399
这是新视频

397
00:11:25,399 --> 00:11:27,059
之前为私密群准备的内容

398
00:11:27,059 --> 00:11:28,578
之前和你们聊过一些

399
00:11:28,578 --> 00:11:30,158
微软股票

400
00:11:30,158 --> 00:11:31,158
微软股票

401
00:11:31,158 --> 00:11:32,938
十九四零美元给先生

402
00:11:32,938 --> 00:11:33,879
软体公司

403
00:11:33,879 --> 00:11:34,558
我的意思是

404
00:11:34,558 --> 00:11:35,610
天啊

405
00:11:37,289 --> 00:11:40,519
但同时你也知道这不是

406
00:11:40,519 --> 00:11:41,759
微软是唯一的好机会

407
00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:43,340
这就是在艰难市场中入手的时候

408
00:11:43,340 --> 00:11:44,600
没错在艰难市场

409
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,269
不是从像

410
00:11:46,269 --> 00:11:46,750
哦

411
00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:47,529
正在下跌

412
00:11:47,529 --> 00:11:48,330
或者像

413
00:11:48,330 --> 00:11:50,509
你知道在艰难市场中像

414
00:11:50,509 --> 00:11:51,840
现在该买什么

415
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:52,120
很棒

416
00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:53,200
因为有很多机会

417
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,220
并不是像

418
00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:54,440
哦

419
00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:56,019
这个市场只有一只股票可买

420
00:11:56,019 --> 00:11:56,578
不不

421
00:11:56,578 --> 00:11:58,538
到处都是机会

422
00:11:58,538 --> 00:11:59,859
整个市场都有机会

423
00:11:59,859 --> 00:12:00,720
嗯

424
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,120
你知道可以比较

425
00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:03,120
让我们比较一下Meta

426
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,279
因为这可能现在就是一场真辩论

427
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:05,769
没错

428
00:12:05,769 --> 00:12:06,370
现在该买什么

429
00:12:06,370 --> 00:12:07,470
现在该买Meta吗

430
00:12:07,470 --> 00:12:08,649
现在该买微软吗

431
00:12:08,649 --> 00:12:09,639
还是买亚马逊

432
00:12:09,639 --> 00:12:11,039
你手头的钱有限

433
00:12:11,039 --> 00:12:12,700
也可以同时买三只

434
00:12:12,700 --> 00:12:14,340
但假如其中一只股票

435
00:12:14,340 --> 00:12:16,700
远超其他表现

436
00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:17,659
需注意这一点

437
00:12:17,659 --> 00:12:18,779
但你现在看的是Meta

438
00:12:18,779 --> 00:12:23,110
前瞻市盈率十七倍，软体公司曾有福特市盈率接近二十，亚马逊

439
00:12:23,110 --> 00:12:24,250
前瞻市盈率二十五倍

440
00:12:24,250 --> 00:12:24,750
需记住

441
00:12:24,750 --> 00:12:26,909
如果未来一年发生重大衰退

442
00:12:26,909 --> 00:12:29,328
这些公司可能无法达标

443
00:12:29,328 --> 00:12:31,769
所以看起来不那么划算

444
00:12:31,769 --> 00:12:34,389
但不要依赖

445
00:12:34,389 --> 00:12:35,509
像这样的公司

446
00:12:35,509 --> 00:12:36,029
永远不要

447
00:12:36,029 --> 00:12:37,809
无论公司如何做数据

448
00:12:37,809 --> 00:12:39,590
这是我从金融危机中学到的

449
00:12:44,379 --> 00:12:47,700
不要假设每股收益就是这样发生的

450
00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:50,340
经历衰退后会出现大幅反弹

451
00:12:50,340 --> 00:12:51,659
你看到了2008年金融危机

452
00:12:51,659 --> 00:12:52,379
许多公司

453
00:12:52,379 --> 00:12:53,149
突然之间

454
00:12:53,149 --> 00:12:55,710
你知道在金融危机前利润很高

455
00:12:55,710 --> 00:12:56,909
然后突然趋于平缓

456
00:12:56,909 --> 00:12:57,830
甚至开始亏损

457
00:12:57,830 --> 00:12:59,200
他们进行大规模裁员

458
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:00,620
经济逐渐重置

459
00:13:00,620 --> 00:13:04,120
接下来两年利润飙升惊人

460
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,139
远超预期强度

461
00:13:06,139 --> 00:13:07,509
即使像

462
00:13:07,509 --> 00:13:10,269
假设你经历中等规模衰退

463
00:13:10,269 --> 00:13:11,110
不是小规模衰退

464
00:13:11,110 --> 00:13:12,149
也不是大规模衰退

465
00:13:12,149 --> 00:13:13,649
就说中等规模吧

466
00:13:13,649 --> 00:13:14,740
这可能会造成影响

467
00:13:14,740 --> 00:13:15,700
你知道的

468
00:13:15,700 --> 00:13:16,139
亚马逊

469
00:13:16,139 --> 00:13:17,100
Meta谷歌

470
00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:17,779
这些公司

471
00:13:17,779 --> 00:13:20,659
它们的收入可能在下一年受损

472
00:13:20,659 --> 00:13:22,879
同样影响每股收益

473
00:13:22,879 --> 00:13:24,799
但猜猜会发生什么

474
00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:28,460
这些收入和每股收益会强劲反弹

475
00:13:28,460 --> 00:13:33,480
接下来两到四个月远超预期

476
00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:34,139
女士们先生们

477
00:13:34,139 --> 00:13:34,639
好的

478
00:13:34,639 --> 00:13:35,360
所以是的

479
00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:35,600
这很困难

480
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:36,740
确实很难

481
00:13:36,740 --> 00:13:37,700
我是说

482
00:13:37,700 --> 00:13:38,500
我有偏见

483
00:13:38,500 --> 00:13:39,740
所以我总是倾向选择Meta

484
00:13:39,740 --> 00:13:40,759
在众多中最佳选择

485
00:13:40,759 --> 00:13:41,779
但紧随其后

486
00:13:41,779 --> 00:13:42,200
我说

487
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:43,799
亚马逊微软

488
00:13:43,799 --> 00:13:46,100
市场必须让这些公司

489
00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:50,230
这些公司的高管

490
00:13:51,370 --> 00:13:52,850
必须让他们吸取教训

491
00:13:53,929 --> 00:13:55,029
必须让他吸取教训

492
00:13:55,029 --> 00:13:56,090
这非常重要

493
00:13:56,090 --> 00:13:56,769
好的

494
00:13:56,769 --> 00:14:02,830
如果这些公司都大幅增加资本支出

495
00:14:02,830 --> 00:14:04,429
远超华尔街预期

496
00:14:04,429 --> 00:14:05,610
而投资者也是如此

497
00:14:05,610 --> 00:14:07,590
包括Meta和亚马逊

498
00:14:07,590 --> 00:14:10,480
我不想让他们在资本支出上像今年这样疯狂

499
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,639
我对增加资本支出没有问题

500
00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:17,940
但他们做得比我预期的更极端，和其他人一样

501
00:14:17,940 --> 00:14:18,580
所以听着

502
00:14:20,659 --> 00:14:26,370
对这些公司最好的事情其实是短期股价下跌

503
00:14:26,370 --> 00:14:29,519
给这些高管和董事会施加压力

504
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:32,279
然后他们就不会继续增加资本支出

505
00:14:32,279 --> 00:14:33,559
以这种荒谬的速度

506
00:14:33,559 --> 00:14:34,559
他们仍在继续

507
00:14:34,559 --> 00:14:36,200
因为他们没有增长收入

508
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,490
以如此疯狂的速度来证明合理性

509
00:14:39,490 --> 00:14:39,889
我的意思是

510
00:14:39,889 --> 00:14:41,730
这些公司基本上会花掉所有资金

511
00:14:41,730 --> 00:14:42,509
他们收到的每一笔钱

512
00:14:42,509 --> 00:14:44,179
都通过资本支出流出

513
00:14:44,179 --> 00:14:46,120
我必须坦诚告诉你们

514
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,769
他们没有收入支撑这支出

515
00:14:48,769 --> 00:14:51,269
如果营收增长像50、60、70%

516
00:14:51,269 --> 00:14:54,049
这些公司想花多少都没问题

517
00:14:54,049 --> 00:14:54,850
我同意

518
00:14:54,850 --> 00:14:57,240
但它们根本不像亚马逊

519
00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:58,840
亚马逊有AWS业务增长

520
00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:03,360
上次我查到的数据是约21%左右

521
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:04,679
21%这样的增长率

522
00:15:04,679 --> 00:15:05,740
这是一个非常好的数字

523
00:15:05,740 --> 00:15:06,220
亚马逊

524
00:15:06,220 --> 00:15:07,340
但这还不够

525
00:15:07,340 --> 00:15:07,679
哦

526
00:15:07,679 --> 00:15:08,980
我们得花掉所有资金

527
00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:09,740
我们收到的每一笔钱

528
00:15:09,740 --> 00:15:10,019
比如

529
00:15:10,019 --> 00:15:13,539
如果亚马逊AWS增长达40、50、60%

530
00:15:13,539 --> 00:15:14,720
我全力支持

531
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:15,460
放手去做吧

532
00:15:15,460 --> 00:15:16,179
但我们做不到

533
00:15:16,179 --> 00:15:17,419
我们达不到那样的增速

534
00:15:17,419 --> 00:15:17,960
所以你

535
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:18,839
你

536
00:15:18,839 --> 00:15:23,639
你的营收增长无法支撑如此疯狂的资本支出

537
00:15:23,639 --> 00:15:28,210
没错，为了让高管意识到

538
00:15:28,210 --> 00:15:28,429
哦

539
00:15:28,429 --> 00:15:28,809
你知道的

540
00:15:28,809 --> 00:15:30,129
你有点过头了

541
00:15:30,129 --> 00:15:31,889
唯一的方法

542
00:15:31,889 --> 00:15:35,039
现在必须让股价承压

543
00:15:35,039 --> 00:15:38,480
这对这些公司长期来说可能也是好事

544
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,919
英伟达的利润率不可持续

545
00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:43,220
真正懂业务的人都知道

546
00:15:43,220 --> 00:15:44,460
看看英伟达的财务数据

547
00:15:44,460 --> 00:15:45,620
这不可持续

548
00:15:45,620 --> 00:15:46,679
这太荒谬了

549
00:15:46,679 --> 00:15:49,899
美光科技是一家大宗商品公司

550
00:15:49,899 --> 00:15:51,419
你试图构建论点

551
00:15:51,419 --> 00:15:51,679
哦

552
00:15:51,679 --> 00:15:52,980
不是这样的兄弟

553
00:15:52,980 --> 00:15:54,919
这是一家大宗商品公司

554
00:15:54,919 --> 00:15:55,899
别别

555
00:15:55,899 --> 00:15:57,700
别给自己编织童话

556
00:15:57,700 --> 00:15:59,039
它不是大宗商品

557
00:15:59,039 --> 00:16:00,000
这是一家大宗商品公司

558
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,460
它一直都是大宗商品公司

559
00:16:01,460 --> 00:16:03,809
它现在仍是大宗商品公司对吧

560
00:16:04,250 --> 00:16:08,200
这些公司的利润率目前极高

561
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,639
所有了解商业和这个行业的人都

562
00:16:11,639 --> 00:16:13,659
都知道长期不可持续对吧

563
00:16:13,659 --> 00:16:15,519
所以对Meta、亚马逊

564
00:16:15,519 --> 00:16:16,850
谷歌、微软

565
00:16:16,850 --> 00:16:20,179
所有这些公司开始

566
00:16:20,179 --> 00:16:21,370
总之说

567
00:16:21,370 --> 00:16:25,139
给英伟达施加压力降低价格对吧

568
00:16:25,139 --> 00:16:26,720
因为你们不会花那么多钱

569
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,000
现在你们还有AMD作为对手

570
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,240
终于有了真正的竞争对手

571
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,139
然后你们还有定制芯片

572
00:16:33,139 --> 00:16:34,940
这算是竞争对手之一

573
00:16:34,940 --> 00:16:36,779
但并非直接竞争

574
00:16:36,779 --> 00:16:40,320
AMD实际上是英伟达的直接竞争对手

575
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,000
如果你追求四五百系列顶级产品

576
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,629
所以在2728系列上有调整空间

577
00:16:47,629 --> 00:16:52,210
对英伟达施加价格压力对吧

578
00:16:53,419 --> 00:16:55,500
这并不意味着为英伟达创造产品

579
00:16:55,500 --> 00:16:56,519
这点要记住

580
00:16:56,519 --> 00:16:57,049
没错

581
00:16:57,049 --> 00:16:57,730
但啊

582
00:16:57,730 --> 00:16:58,649
这就是操作方法

583
00:16:58,649 --> 00:17:00,850
最终对投资者有利

584
00:17:00,850 --> 00:17:01,429
在我看来

585
00:17:01,429 --> 00:17:03,610
这些公司终于会明白

586
00:17:03,610 --> 00:17:03,929
兄弟

587
00:17:03,929 --> 00:17:05,049
我们得冷静一点

588
00:17:05,049 --> 00:17:07,009
我们的资本支出已经失控

589
00:17:07,009 --> 00:17:11,368
同时获得对英伟达的价格优势

590
00:17:11,969 --> 00:17:13,348
这是皆大欢喜吗

591
00:17:13,348 --> 00:17:14,148
其实

592
00:17:14,148 --> 00:17:14,749
你知道的

593
00:17:14,749 --> 00:17:17,500
如果你想为未来五到十年感到兴奋

594
00:17:17,500 --> 00:17:19,059
这正是理想场景

595
00:17:19,059 --> 00:17:20,579
简直是完美局面

596
00:17:20,579 --> 00:17:21,700
这里正在上演的情景

597
00:17:21,700 --> 00:17:24,219
所以你只需充分利用今年所有的优惠活动

598
00:17:24,219 --> 00:17:26,778
然后坐下来享受接下来几年的乐趣

599
00:17:26,778 --> 00:17:27,378
没错

600
00:17:27,378 --> 00:17:27,979
好的

601
00:17:27,979 --> 00:17:30,539
所以这是我最近发的帖子

602
00:17:30,539 --> 00:17:32,079
这个在X平台爆红了

603
00:17:32,079 --> 00:17:33,400
X啊，天啊

604
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:34,680
这不是玩笑，要记住

605
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,619
我大概有一百多

606
00:17:37,619 --> 00:17:40,019
我甚至不确定自己在X上有十二万粉丝

607
00:17:40,019 --> 00:17:40,259
顺便说一句

608
00:17:40,259 --> 00:17:41,299
如果你想在X上关注我

609
00:17:41,299 --> 00:17:42,539
链接一直放在描述栏里

610
00:17:42,539 --> 00:17:46,750
往下看这里有五十四万四千次浏览量

611
00:17:46,750 --> 00:17:47,210
你知道的

612
00:17:47,210 --> 00:17:48,549
刚超过三个小时

613
00:17:48,549 --> 00:17:48,990
太疯狂了

614
00:17:50,069 --> 00:17:50,289
好的

615
00:17:50,289 --> 00:17:51,849
所以这里有个关键点

616
00:17:51,849 --> 00:17:54,329
当股市出现回调或崩盘时

617
00:17:54,329 --> 00:17:56,490
作为投资者你有三个选择

618
00:17:56,490 --> 00:17:58,289
让我解释最佳选项

619
00:17:58,289 --> 00:18:00,730
从数学角度来说

620
00:18:00,730 --> 00:18:02,369
用这个选项全部抛售

621
00:18:02,369 --> 00:18:05,839
你抛售部分股票或清空整个投资组合

622
00:18:05,839 --> 00:18:07,759
第二个选项就是持有股票

623
00:18:07,759 --> 00:18:09,000
不买不卖任何东西

624
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,950
在回调和崩盘期间

625
00:18:10,950 --> 00:18:13,809
第三个选项是在回调或崩盘时买入

626
00:18:13,809 --> 00:18:14,450
用这个选项

627
00:18:14,450 --> 00:18:16,609
在回调崩盘时加仓

628
00:18:16,609 --> 00:18:18,809
接下来的十二个月里

629
00:18:18,809 --> 00:18:20,789
听好了最佳选择

630
00:18:20,789 --> 00:18:22,890
经过反复验证

631
00:18:22,890 --> 00:18:24,450
一次又一次

632
00:18:24,450 --> 00:18:28,409
就是在回调或崩盘时买入股票

633
00:18:28,409 --> 00:18:29,048
你买入

634
00:18:29,048 --> 00:18:30,729
不抛售整个投资组合

635
00:18:30,729 --> 00:18:31,989
不卖出所有股票

636
00:18:31,989 --> 00:18:33,528
也不只是持有

637
00:18:33,528 --> 00:18:34,368
你买入

638
00:18:34,368 --> 00:18:36,089
增加更大份额

639
00:18:36,089 --> 00:18:37,029
更大份额

640
00:18:37,029 --> 00:18:39,230
然后十二个月二十

641
00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:39,869
四个月三

642
00:18:39,869 --> 00:18:41,410
六个月后

643
00:18:41,789 --> 00:18:42,990
拍拍自己的后背

644
00:18:42,990 --> 00:18:44,470
然后说干得好

645
00:18:44,470 --> 00:18:46,930
干得好对吧，这就是我的做法

646
00:18:46,930 --> 00:18:48,579
每次出现回调时

647
00:18:48,579 --> 00:18:50,119
每次市场出现暴跌时

648
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:51,779
自从我2009年重返市场以来

649
00:18:51,779 --> 00:18:53,180
当时我只有几百美元

650
00:18:53,180 --> 00:18:54,369
猜猜我做了什么

651
00:18:54,369 --> 00:18:59,589
增持优质公司的股权然后坐等享受乐趣

652
00:18:59,589 --> 00:19:01,869
去年做了解放日交易

653
00:19:01,869 --> 00:19:02,500
没错

654
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:04,279
2022年就做过

655
00:19:04,279 --> 00:19:05,119
极其沉重

656
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:06,599
2020年完成的

657
00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:08,159
2018年就做了

658
00:19:08,159 --> 00:19:08,959
20年完成的

659
00:19:08,959 --> 00:19:10,378
你知道当时是1560点

660
00:19:10,378 --> 00:19:13,319
每当发生中国局势动荡时

661
00:19:13,319 --> 00:19:15,559
显然在金融危机期间开始投资

662
00:19:15,559 --> 00:19:16,559
二次衰退

663
00:19:16,559 --> 00:19:18,210
担心它会变成

664
00:19:18,210 --> 00:19:19,069
它会变成什么

665
00:19:19,069 --> 00:19:20,049
今天还在

666
00:19:20,049 --> 00:19:20,930
明天就消失

667
00:19:20,930 --> 00:19:21,609
就像

668
00:19:21,609 --> 00:19:22,599
你知道的

669
00:19:22,599 --> 00:19:24,799
记住一年后

670
00:19:24,799 --> 00:19:25,400
两年后

671
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:26,819
人们几乎不会记得这段

672
00:19:26,819 --> 00:19:28,609
我们正在经历的这段时期

673
00:19:28,609 --> 00:19:30,690
然后就过去了

674
00:19:30,690 --> 00:19:33,190
世界继续前进而股市

675
00:19:33,190 --> 00:19:33,829
优质公司

676
00:19:33,829 --> 00:19:38,220
股价上涨最终抛售结束买入压力涌现

677
00:19:38,220 --> 00:19:40,230
然后变得越来越大

678
00:19:40,230 --> 00:19:42,210
这又是一场游戏即将重演

679
00:19:42,210 --> 00:19:42,869
不要硬抗

680
00:19:42,869 --> 00:19:44,009
短期发生

681
00:19:44,009 --> 00:19:45,869
但这确实是一场游戏

682
00:19:45,869 --> 00:19:46,680
好的没错

683
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:47,500
我们继续

684
00:19:47,500 --> 00:19:49,740
来看看华尔街动态

685
00:19:49,740 --> 00:19:52,299
顺便说件有趣的事

686
00:19:52,299 --> 00:19:54,079
前几天背景里有CNBC

687
00:19:54,079 --> 00:19:55,359
对吧

688
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,890
华尔街开始互相争斗

689
00:19:59,089 --> 00:20:00,029
我喜欢这个

690
00:20:00,029 --> 00:20:01,638
为什么我喜欢

691
00:20:01,638 --> 00:20:03,538
当华尔街开始争斗时

692
00:20:03,538 --> 00:20:05,318
他们为何这么做

693
00:20:05,318 --> 00:20:05,999
而我

694
00:20:05,999 --> 00:20:06,798
真是吓一跳

695
00:20:06,798 --> 00:20:08,439
这些人互相开火

696
00:20:08,439 --> 00:20:09,599
哇

697
00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:10,339
他们试图像...

698
00:20:10,339 --> 00:20:10,660
你知道的

699
00:20:10,660 --> 00:20:11,599
在他们胸前拍打

700
00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:13,450
你知道我打了这个电话

701
00:20:13,450 --> 00:20:14,069
你知道的

702
00:20:14,069 --> 00:20:14,329
你知道的

703
00:20:14,329 --> 00:20:15,170
我可以处理好

704
00:20:15,170 --> 00:20:16,269
就像我当时惊呆了

705
00:20:16,269 --> 00:20:17,710
你们有点过于激进了

706
00:20:17,710 --> 00:20:19,109
但为什么他们这么做

707
00:20:19,109 --> 00:20:19,829
为什么他们

708
00:20:19,829 --> 00:20:21,640
你们这样表现

709
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:27,990
我告诉你他们客户和上司施压的原因

710
00:20:27,990 --> 00:20:29,509
他们可以施压

711
00:20:29,509 --> 00:20:31,069
因为市场正在下滑

712
00:20:31,069 --> 00:20:32,769
投资组合在下跌

713
00:20:32,769 --> 00:20:34,409
奖金也在减少

714
00:20:34,409 --> 00:20:35,989
一切都在下跌对吧

715
00:20:35,989 --> 00:20:37,929
所以接下来会发生

716
00:20:37,929 --> 00:20:39,449
客户开始互相致电

717
00:20:39,449 --> 00:20:40,288
开始发邮件

718
00:20:40,288 --> 00:20:41,108
客户开始

719
00:20:41,108 --> 00:20:41,588
呃

720
00:20:41,588 --> 00:20:42,848
短信可能不行

721
00:20:42,848 --> 00:20:43,068
不行

722
00:20:43,068 --> 00:20:44,328
在行业内仍然如此

723
00:20:44,328 --> 00:20:47,019
但邮件就在这里

724
00:20:47,019 --> 00:20:48,680
他们正在联系你

725
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,339
他们说你好

726
00:20:50,339 --> 00:20:51,819
为什么我的投资组合在下跌

727
00:20:51,819 --> 00:20:52,099
嘿

728
00:20:52,099 --> 00:20:53,680
你为什么不撤出这部分

729
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:53,900
嘿

730
00:20:53,900 --> 00:20:55,970
一堆问题啊

731
00:20:55,970 --> 00:20:59,089
猜猜你这几年没遇到太多问题

732
00:20:59,089 --> 00:21:01,450
因为很多股票在上涨

733
00:21:01,450 --> 00:21:02,430
大家都在赚钱

734
00:21:02,430 --> 00:21:03,489
市场上涨

735
00:21:03,489 --> 00:21:06,828
你知道去年显然有解放日事件

736
00:21:06,828 --> 00:21:09,528
但总体而言从2022年低点以来

737
00:21:09,528 --> 00:21:11,549
一直很顺利

738
00:21:12,339 --> 00:21:12,799
你的

739
00:21:12,799 --> 00:21:14,160
你的客户很满意

740
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,599
你的上司很满意

741
00:21:15,599 --> 00:21:17,299
奖金分配充足

742
00:21:17,299 --> 00:21:19,579
你没遇到太多问题

743
00:21:19,579 --> 00:21:24,279
但随后情况反转

744
00:21:24,279 --> 00:21:25,920
市场开始下跌

745
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,099
股票到处暴跌

746
00:21:28,099 --> 00:21:30,319
你开始面对所有这些问题

747
00:21:30,319 --> 00:21:30,660
被问到

748
00:21:30,660 --> 00:21:31,920
你为什么还没搬出这个

749
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:33,509
这种情况还要持续多久

750
00:21:33,509 --> 00:21:34,109
你知道的

751
00:21:34,109 --> 00:21:36,589
如果这些预测出现偏差

752
00:21:36,589 --> 00:21:37,529
或者你没有好的答案

753
00:21:37,529 --> 00:21:38,589
或者客户会说

754
00:21:38,589 --> 00:21:39,150
你知道的

755
00:21:39,150 --> 00:21:41,069
开始怀疑自己的判断

756
00:21:41,559 --> 00:21:43,119
开始感到压力

757
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,579
然后你参加这些项目

758
00:21:44,579 --> 00:21:45,480
开始争论

759
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:46,960
开始争执

760
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,009
因为你承受着巨大压力

761
00:21:50,009 --> 00:21:51,670
都压在你肩上对吧

762
00:21:51,670 --> 00:21:53,130
让我们回应华尔街人士

763
00:21:53,130 --> 00:21:55,150
本周走势全线下跌

764
00:21:55,150 --> 00:21:56,890
显然原油仍是核心话题

765
00:21:56,890 --> 00:21:57,809
屏幕底部提示

766
00:21:57,809 --> 00:22:01,480
WTI原油约98美元，收益率略高

767
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,779
现在已基本持平

768
00:22:03,779 --> 00:22:07,940
但十年期收益率仍在回升

769
00:22:07,940 --> 00:22:10,559
我们接近450点关口

770
00:22:10,559 --> 00:22:12,409
让我们看看收益率走势

771
00:22:12,409 --> 00:22:13,729
如果能调出这些数据

772
00:22:13,729 --> 00:22:15,269
当前报价442

773
00:22:15,269 --> 00:22:16,990
我们需要密切关注

774
00:22:16,990 --> 00:22:19,349
我将来可能会管理对冲基金

775
00:22:19,349 --> 00:22:20,910
现在还没这个打算

776
00:22:20,910 --> 00:22:22,470
但五到十年后

777
00:22:22,470 --> 00:22:23,190
也许现在

778
00:22:23,190 --> 00:22:24,539
我始终认为

779
00:22:24,539 --> 00:22:24,859
你知道的

780
00:22:24,859 --> 00:22:25,700
我现在36岁

781
00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:27,380
在我四十岁左右时

782
00:22:27,380 --> 00:22:29,240
创立对冲基金该多酷

783
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,119
我会让每位客户

784
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,599
当我开始管理对冲基金

785
00:22:32,599 --> 00:22:34,380
不会一开始就顺利

786
00:22:34,380 --> 00:22:35,460
听着兄弟

787
00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:36,640
你需要你的资金

788
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,589
你可以随时取回资金

789
00:22:38,910 --> 00:22:43,430
至少提前一年告知赎回需求

790
00:22:43,430 --> 00:22:44,309
我打算

791
00:22:44,309 --> 00:22:46,240
我的原则是

792
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:47,119
因为我并不急迫

793
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:48,220
既然我已经

794
00:22:48,220 --> 00:22:48,700
你知道的

795
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,440
显然我已经过得很好

796
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,480
财务状况堪称人生快车道

797
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:54,319
让我告诉你

798
00:22:54,319 --> 00:22:55,440
你要把钱拿走

799
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,440
至少提前一年或两年通知我

800
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,099
最低限度

801
00:22:58,099 --> 00:22:58,359
否则的话

802
00:22:58,359 --> 00:22:59,039
别给我你的钱

803
00:22:59,039 --> 00:22:59,700
我无所谓

804
00:22:59,700 --> 00:23:01,289
我不会正确投资

805
00:23:01,289 --> 00:23:04,559
我要制定所有规则就像这样操作

806
00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:06,559
我们在市场回调时大幅买入

807
00:23:06,559 --> 00:23:08,220
别打电话来哭诉

808
00:23:08,220 --> 00:23:10,519
别发邮件给我

809
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,109
不不不

810
00:23:13,109 --> 00:23:14,609
我不想听这些废话

811
00:23:14,609 --> 00:23:15,990
如果你不是大男孩

812
00:23:15,990 --> 00:23:19,009
你不能和大男孩玩而我是大男孩

813
00:23:19,009 --> 00:23:20,710
这就是我要说的

814
00:23:20,710 --> 00:23:24,380
就像那天客户来找我哭诉

815
00:23:24,380 --> 00:23:25,299
天啊

816
00:23:25,299 --> 00:23:26,259
哦天哪

817
00:23:26,259 --> 00:23:27,400
他们都会听到的

818
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:28,319
他们会听到史蒂夫

819
00:23:28,319 --> 00:23:32,759
艾斯特曼说今年加息幅度达50%

820
00:23:32,759 --> 00:23:34,659
美国银行建议

821
00:23:34,659 --> 00:23:38,740
我们认为市场现在预期美联储会更鹰派

822
00:23:38,740 --> 00:23:42,119
并可能引发更广泛的商品冲击

823
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:42,779
呃

824
00:23:42,779 --> 00:23:46,500
大宗商品冲击已经相当剧烈

825
00:23:46,500 --> 00:23:50,039
这是全球石油市场最大供应中断

826
00:23:50,039 --> 00:23:52,819
目前还没有解决办法

827
00:23:52,819 --> 00:23:53,500
呃

828
00:23:53,500 --> 00:23:55,180
就美联储而言

829
00:23:55,180 --> 00:23:56,799
里士满今日表态

830
00:23:56,799 --> 00:23:57,680
美联储应暂停加息

831
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,599
需要先确定应对策略

832
00:23:59,599 --> 00:24:02,319
很难忽视通胀数据和费城指数

833
00:24:02,319 --> 00:24:05,599
保尔森的评论也类似

834
00:24:05,599 --> 00:24:06,319
你怎么看这些情况

835
00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:06,519
我说啊

836
00:24:06,519 --> 00:24:10,200
我现在看不出该做什么

837
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,309
我们还有很多未知因素

838
00:24:12,309 --> 00:24:12,970
不降息

839
00:24:12,970 --> 00:24:13,549
不加息

840
00:24:13,549 --> 00:24:14,869
我不考虑加息

841
00:24:14,869 --> 00:24:16,630
如果谈到秋季

842
00:24:16,630 --> 00:24:19,309
现在到秋季会发生很多事情

843
00:24:19,309 --> 00:24:21,450
头条新闻接连不断

844
00:24:21,450 --> 00:24:23,170
每天反复交替

845
00:24:23,170 --> 00:24:25,619
这绝对不提振信心

846
00:24:25,619 --> 00:24:26,819
但还有很多不确定

847
00:24:26,819 --> 00:24:27,989
我们仍然不清楚

848
00:24:27,989 --> 00:24:28,528
嗯

849
00:24:28,528 --> 00:24:30,969
我们甚至不知道美国在和谁谈判

850
00:24:30,969 --> 00:24:31,568
首先是

851
00:24:31,568 --> 00:24:33,930
其次是其他国家会参与吗

852
00:24:33,930 --> 00:24:35,970
第三是是否要派兵上阵

853
00:24:35,970 --> 00:24:37,890
周末就要上阵了

854
00:24:37,890 --> 00:24:40,180
尤其是我理解这种焦虑

855
00:24:40,180 --> 00:24:42,539
我理解人们想要降低风险

856
00:24:42,539 --> 00:24:44,480
我也稍微降低了点风险

857
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,259
但我在寻找其他买入机会

858
00:24:46,259 --> 00:24:47,650
我们稍后详细讨论

859
00:24:47,650 --> 00:24:49,549
我仍然认为这将持续时间不长

860
00:24:49,549 --> 00:24:50,130
嗯

861
00:24:50,130 --> 00:24:51,210
波动率已趋于平稳

862
00:24:51,210 --> 00:24:52,500
这真是太好了

863
00:24:52,500 --> 00:24:56,400
我认为这非常有趣且值得注意的是什么在获胜

864
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,180
你知道吗

865
00:24:57,180 --> 00:25:02,799
罗素1000价值指数今年以来上涨12%

866
00:25:02,799 --> 00:25:03,519
抱歉

867
00:25:03,519 --> 00:25:04,940
今年以来持平

868
00:25:04,940 --> 00:25:07,720
今年以来下跌12%

869
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,960
能源板块

870
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:11,200
材料板块

871
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:12,599
甚至H股仍上涨

872
00:25:12,599 --> 00:25:15,740
过去几年表现良好的领域现在都不景气

873
00:25:15,740 --> 00:25:17,589
科技和服务业

874
00:25:17,589 --> 00:25:20,250
魔七指数下跌15%

875
00:25:20,250 --> 00:25:22,990
自战争爆发以来没有任何领域表现良好

876
00:25:22,990 --> 00:25:24,920
除了能源不对

877
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:25,200
是的

878
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:25,380
是的

879
00:25:25,380 --> 00:25:26,440
这是事实

880
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:26,839
不不

881
00:25:26,839 --> 00:25:28,539
材料板块下跌9%

882
00:25:28,539 --> 00:25:29,480
所以这里开始

883
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,859
部分贵金属表现或不一

884
00:25:31,859 --> 00:25:32,420
根本没有

885
00:25:32,420 --> 00:25:34,650
我要告诉你材料板块的情况

886
00:25:34,650 --> 00:25:37,819
自战争开始以来下跌9%，确实自战争以来

887
00:25:37,819 --> 00:25:38,599
我只是告诉你

888
00:25:38,599 --> 00:25:38,839
好的

889
00:25:38,839 --> 00:25:40,660
自战争开始至今约一年

890
00:25:40,660 --> 00:25:41,079
实际上

891
00:25:41,079 --> 00:25:41,380
是的

892
00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:42,359
但我喜欢整个

893
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,359
这次对话的核心

894
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,500
而争论的焦点是

895
00:25:46,500 --> 00:25:49,089
为什么我们应该说

896
00:25:49,089 --> 00:25:50,829
今年以来已上涨

897
00:25:50,829 --> 00:25:52,769
由于旋转战争的原因

898
00:25:52,769 --> 00:25:53,750
因为旋转已经停止了

899
00:25:53,750 --> 00:25:53,910
是的

900
00:25:53,910 --> 00:25:54,490
但这场战争

901
00:25:54,490 --> 00:25:54,789
没错

902
00:25:54,789 --> 00:25:58,119
但旋转在节食中停止了

903
00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,440
当战争开始时

904
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,680
年初以来部分能源实际上已经开始获胜

905
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:04,480
所以我们需要材料

906
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:05,759
这就是我要强调的原因

907
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:08,960
价值板块表现远好于大盘

908
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,559
她想谈论她想谈论的内容

909
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:12,480
而他想谈论他想谈论的内容

910
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:13,329
啊，天啊

911
00:26:13,329 --> 00:26:15,970
我正试着给你几个表现良好的板块

912
00:26:15,970 --> 00:26:16,950
以及一些表现不佳的

913
00:26:16,950 --> 00:26:19,329
我们都关注那些没起作用的部分

914
00:26:19,329 --> 00:26:20,819
因为那是大家持有的

915
00:26:20,819 --> 00:26:23,880
我认为你会继续看到这些板块承受压力

916
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,039
因为人们最终会平仓这些头寸

917
00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:29,210
它们至今尚未获利

918
00:26:29,210 --> 00:26:32,210
因为过去多年已嵌入大量收益

919
00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:32,650
许多年

920
00:26:32,650 --> 00:26:34,089
他们不愿缴税

921
00:26:34,089 --> 00:26:35,450
我的意思是

922
00:26:35,450 --> 00:26:36,230
我们感觉不好

923
00:26:36,230 --> 00:26:38,579
整体市场下跌5%

924
00:26:38,579 --> 00:26:40,380
等权重指数持平

925
00:26:40,380 --> 00:26:42,660
有些地方可以投入资金

926
00:26:42,660 --> 00:26:44,888
或表现尚可的领域

927
00:26:44,888 --> 00:26:47,249
标普指数从高点下跌超8%

928
00:26:47,249 --> 00:26:48,009
自高位以来

929
00:26:48,009 --> 00:26:49,599
年初时

930
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:51,240
所以我们抢

931
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,000
很难找到稳定性

932
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,000
因为我们现在一无所知

933
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,069
除了霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭

934
00:27:00,069 --> 00:27:02,630
油价仍在上涨

935
00:27:02,630 --> 00:27:03,930
收益率已进入

936
00:27:03,930 --> 00:27:05,799
是的，伍迪提到他们的

937
00:27:05,799 --> 00:27:06,259
你知道的

938
00:27:06,259 --> 00:27:06,579
听着

939
00:27:06,579 --> 00:27:08,460
这回到整个问题

940
00:27:08,460 --> 00:27:08,740
哦

941
00:27:08,740 --> 00:27:09,759
让我们减仓

942
00:27:09,759 --> 00:27:12,259
因为我们即将见底上涨

943
00:27:12,259 --> 00:27:15,309
你无法做出这个判断

944
00:27:15,309 --> 00:27:16,269
截至目前

945
00:27:16,269 --> 00:27:16,690
没错

946
00:27:16,690 --> 00:27:19,190
股票市场持续数月

947
00:27:19,190 --> 00:27:20,230
看看纳斯达克指数

948
00:27:20,230 --> 00:27:22,789
纳斯达克在万圣节前几天达到峰值

949
00:27:22,789 --> 00:27:23,890
归根结底

950
00:27:23,890 --> 00:27:26,630
纳斯达克的每一次反弹都以失败告终

951
00:27:26,630 --> 00:27:29,849
每次都会创出新低

952
00:27:29,849 --> 00:27:30,630
新低

953
00:27:30,630 --> 00:27:33,779
所以你根本没有

954
00:27:34,220 --> 00:27:35,420
如果你说像

955
00:27:35,420 --> 00:27:35,640
哦

956
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:35,880
我们

957
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:36,779
我们现在正处于底部

958
00:27:36,779 --> 00:27:37,720
我们明天就会见底

959
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,339
这完全有可能

960
00:27:39,339 --> 00:27:42,480
但你没有任何有力依据支撑上涨

961
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,119
从另一方面来看

962
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:44,579
如果你认为

963
00:27:44,579 --> 00:27:45,119
哦

964
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:46,279
趋势一直是

965
00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:47,200
我们不断创出新低

966
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:48,000
我们不断创出新低

967
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,819
这就是最终会发生的事情

968
00:27:49,819 --> 00:27:53,319
如果你知道在未来几周或一个月内

969
00:27:53,319 --> 00:27:57,779
中东局势突然出现明显缓解

970
00:27:57,779 --> 00:27:59,359
我不是说彻底解决

971
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:00,220
但至少有所改善

972
00:28:00,220 --> 00:28:03,680
市场早已开始上涨

973
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:04,359
比如

974
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,920
那边的情况早已好转

975
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,039
这就是为什么我认为

976
00:28:10,039 --> 00:28:11,640
市场即将在接下来

977
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,539
几天或几周内见底

978
00:28:13,539 --> 00:28:15,380
你没有任何依据支持这个观点

979
00:28:15,380 --> 00:28:17,700
完全是在闭着眼睛乱猜

980
00:28:17,700 --> 00:28:19,140
另一方也是如此

981
00:28:19,140 --> 00:28:19,859
任何声称

982
00:28:19,859 --> 00:28:22,210
市场已创出新低

983
00:28:22,210 --> 00:28:23,470
将继续一路下跌的人

984
00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:25,230
正如你所知

985
00:28:25,230 --> 00:28:27,309
去年解放日的情况如何

986
00:28:27,309 --> 00:28:31,109
人们认为市场会持续下跌，结果标普暴跌20%

987
00:28:31,109 --> 00:28:32,410
随后强劲反弹

988
00:28:32,410 --> 00:28:33,990
所以你看

989
00:28:33,990 --> 00:28:34,910
双方观点

990
00:28:34,910 --> 00:28:35,569
你根本

991
00:28:35,569 --> 00:28:36,430
纯粹在赌博

992
00:28:36,430 --> 00:28:40,138
短期内没有任何确定性依据

993
00:28:40,138 --> 00:28:42,838
真正正确的做法

994
00:28:42,838 --> 00:28:46,038
是长期投资者关注未来五到十年

995
00:28:46,038 --> 00:28:49,089
试图关注未来五到十周的人

996
00:28:49,410 --> 00:28:50,089
祝你好运

997
00:28:50,089 --> 00:28:53,859
祝你好运，美联储讲话更加鹰派

998
00:28:54,859 --> 00:28:58,849
市场对美联储行动的预期已转向更鹰派

999
00:28:58,849 --> 00:29:01,349
那现在你该如何应对这一切

1000
00:29:01,349 --> 00:29:04,490
我认为现在应该提出

1001
00:29:04,490 --> 00:29:11,210
油价和收益率对市场的影响远大于总统缓和威胁

1002
00:29:11,210 --> 00:29:14,269
就像这是关税决定

1003
00:29:14,269 --> 00:29:18,329
因为这不是巴克莱今天提到的内容

1004
00:29:18,329 --> 00:29:18,710
他们表示

1005
00:29:23,029 --> 00:29:25,230
特朗普似乎有意缓和局势

1006
00:29:25,230 --> 00:29:28,289
冲突至今支撑了股市

1007
00:29:28,289 --> 00:29:30,450
风险在于反复无常

1008
00:29:30,450 --> 00:29:33,109
标题疲劳开始严重削弱

1009
00:29:40,159 --> 00:29:43,979
我仍认为他们认为它依然有效且有道理

1010
00:29:43,979 --> 00:29:45,278
但这不是关税问题

1011
00:29:45,278 --> 00:29:45,778
好的

1012
00:29:45,778 --> 00:29:47,890
很容易就能做出

1013
00:29:47,890 --> 00:29:49,970
据高盛的托尼·帕斯卡莱

1014
00:29:49,970 --> 00:29:52,279
他在我们开播前刚发布报告

1015
00:29:52,279 --> 00:29:54,960
你可以构建非常看涨的战术策略

1016
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,839
也可以构建看跌的战术策略

1017
00:29:56,839 --> 00:29:57,759
同样地

1018
00:29:57,759 --> 00:29:59,579
史蒂夫并非错误

1019
00:29:59,579 --> 00:30:01,960
因为你可以构建看涨战术

1020
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,799
但近期首次

1021
00:30:04,799 --> 00:30:07,680
也能轻松构建看跌战术

1022
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,279
这里存在很大不对称性

1023
00:30:11,279 --> 00:30:13,839
我认为看涨论点确实成立

1024
00:30:13,839 --> 00:30:16,890
看涨论点的上行空间可能有限

1025
00:30:16,890 --> 00:30:17,970
至于看跌论点

1026
00:30:17,970 --> 00:30:20,309
若情况极度恶化

1027
00:30:20,309 --> 00:30:22,589
可能会更糟

1028
00:30:22,589 --> 00:30:24,210
我发现这

1029
00:30:24,210 --> 00:30:26,349
顺便说件很重要的事

1030
00:30:26,349 --> 00:30:29,500
这里就是我看到的情况

1031
00:30:29,779 --> 00:30:38,009
道指工业平均指数已从高点下跌超5000点

1032
00:30:41,410 --> 00:30:44,380
看起来已从高点下跌约5000点

1033
00:30:44,380 --> 00:30:47,160
从峰值下跌200点左右

1034
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,839
科技股已遭受严重打击

1035
00:30:50,839 --> 00:30:51,888
对吧嗯

1036
00:30:51,888 --> 00:30:53,528
我见过更糟的

1037
00:30:53,528 --> 00:30:55,108
但我说这

1038
00:30:55,108 --> 00:30:55,689
这

1039
00:30:55,689 --> 00:30:57,709
这个数字相当惊人对吧

1040
00:30:57,709 --> 00:30:58,229
嗯

1041
00:30:58,229 --> 00:30:59,469
GSG再次上涨

1042
00:30:59,469 --> 00:31:00,348
天啊

1043
00:31:00,348 --> 00:31:01,159
Gsg

1044
00:31:01,159 --> 00:31:01,598
是的

1045
00:31:01,598 --> 00:31:02,638
市场不会感到舒适

1046
00:31:02,638 --> 00:31:04,499
直到GSG开始下跌

1047
00:31:04,499 --> 00:31:06,239
然后GSG开始下跌

1048
00:31:06,239 --> 00:31:07,499
市场会更安心

1049
00:31:07,499 --> 00:31:11,269
这其中最有趣的是

1050
00:31:11,269 --> 00:31:15,240
尽管我们看到能源价格上涨带来的压力

1051
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,299
以及对氦气的影响

1052
00:31:17,299 --> 00:31:20,409
以及氦气对半导体的影响

1053
00:31:20,409 --> 00:31:23,288
还有我要你们重点关注的另一件事

1054
00:31:23,288 --> 00:31:23,888
你看

1055
00:31:23,888 --> 00:31:26,299
我还注意到VIX指数

1056
00:31:26,299 --> 00:31:27,200
看看VIX指数

1057
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:27,880
呃

1058
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:29,529
今天是31点

1059
00:31:29,529 --> 00:31:32,390
这是好消息，我要说这是好消息

1060
00:31:32,390 --> 00:31:34,049
我必须非常明确地说明

1061
00:31:34,049 --> 00:31:35,670
从这个角度来看是好消息

1062
00:31:35,670 --> 00:31:37,150
如果你想买入

1063
00:31:37,150 --> 00:31:38,329
通常想要

1064
00:31:38,329 --> 00:31:41,679
比如当你看到VIX冲到30点

1065
00:31:41,679 --> 00:31:42,898
而且通常

1066
00:31:42,898 --> 00:31:43,499
呃

1067
00:31:43,499 --> 00:31:46,419
通常这是应该买入市场的信号

1068
00:31:46,419 --> 00:31:46,969
对吧

1069
00:31:46,969 --> 00:31:48,269
但这不是

1070
00:31:48,269 --> 00:31:48,729
哦

1071
00:31:48,729 --> 00:31:49,648
肯定如此

1072
00:31:49,648 --> 00:31:51,848
比如我们之前买入

1073
00:31:51,848 --> 00:31:55,869
去年VIX一度飙升至50点以上

1074
00:31:55,869 --> 00:31:58,529
所以你看VIX涨到40、50、60

1075
00:31:58,529 --> 00:31:59,730
这个区间

1076
00:32:00,170 --> 00:32:01,650
现在我们讨论的是

1077
00:32:01,650 --> 00:32:02,369
我们现在在说

1078
00:32:02,369 --> 00:32:07,829
可以更有力地论证市场已触及 capitulation 低点

1079
00:32:08,109 --> 00:32:09,369
就像去年那样

1080
00:32:09,369 --> 00:32:10,970
你可以回顾过去

1081
00:32:10,970 --> 00:32:13,150
许多崩盘和严重回调

1082
00:32:13,150 --> 00:32:16,269
通常在末期会出现抛售高潮

1083
00:32:16,269 --> 00:32:17,980
VIX可能涨到40

1084
00:32:17,980 --> 00:32:18,680
可能涨到50

1085
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:19,660
可能涨到60

1086
00:32:19,660 --> 00:32:23,579
这时你应该立即清仓

1087
00:32:23,579 --> 00:32:25,980
当时持有的所有仓位

1088
00:32:25,980 --> 00:32:27,839
这就是那种情况，就像

1089
00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:28,779
如果它继续下跌

1090
00:32:28,779 --> 00:32:29,140
比如

1091
00:32:29,140 --> 00:32:30,160
它会逐渐放缓

1092
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,789
但到了某个点必须坚信自己做出了正确决策

1093
00:32:34,789 --> 00:32:36,269
只要你有收入和支出

1094
00:32:36,269 --> 00:32:37,349
你可以继续买入

1095
00:32:37,349 --> 00:32:38,589
这就像一件大事

1096
00:32:38,589 --> 00:32:41,890
如果崩盘比预期更严重的话

1097
00:32:41,890 --> 00:32:43,410
VIX指数涨到五十以上

1098
00:32:43,410 --> 00:32:45,829
你必须疯狂买入

1099
00:32:45,829 --> 00:32:46,269
你

1100
00:32:46,269 --> 00:32:46,950
我不想说

1101
00:32:46,950 --> 00:32:48,569
我不想说你必须全仓入市

1102
00:32:48,569 --> 00:32:49,069
但天啊

1103
00:32:49,069 --> 00:32:50,349
你得尽可能接近全仓

1104
00:32:50,349 --> 00:32:50,670
你知道的

1105
00:32:50,670 --> 00:32:51,230
如果这是

1106
00:32:51,230 --> 00:32:54,819
假设市场在未来两周大幅下跌

1107
00:32:54,819 --> 00:32:56,509
VIX飙升五十以上

1108
00:32:56,509 --> 00:32:57,569
我要加仓

1109
00:32:57,569 --> 00:32:58,710
我要像这样加仓

1110
00:32:58,710 --> 00:33:01,349
你知道我把大部分现金投入市场

1111
00:33:01,349 --> 00:33:04,910
但这并不意味着不会更低

1112
00:33:04,910 --> 00:33:05,769
你知道的，谁也说不准

1113
00:33:05,769 --> 00:33:06,609
VIX飙升七十

1114
00:33:06,609 --> 00:33:07,430
VIX冲到八十

1115
00:33:07,430 --> 00:33:08,609
我之前见过这种情况

1116
00:33:08,609 --> 00:33:11,089
石油的转折性影响

1117
00:33:11,089 --> 00:33:11,890
相关产品

1118
00:33:13,009 --> 00:33:13,309
成本

1119
00:33:13,309 --> 00:33:14,250
食品价格

1120
00:33:14,250 --> 00:33:17,130
各处的投入成本

1121
00:33:17,130 --> 00:33:19,730
同时信贷方面

1122
00:33:19,730 --> 00:33:21,309
虽然尚未收紧

1123
00:33:21,309 --> 00:33:22,710
正如斯蒂夫所说

1124
00:33:22,710 --> 00:33:26,960
从私人信贷机构获取资金确实更难

1125
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,460
他们不再像以前那样融资

1126
00:33:29,460 --> 00:33:30,240
所以这是个

1127
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,720
这算是另一个独立问题

1128
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:37,900
没错，这是支撑经济多年的燃料

1129
00:33:37,900 --> 00:33:40,099
但你知道吗

1130
00:33:40,099 --> 00:33:41,099
天啊

1131
00:33:41,099 --> 00:33:44,369
这突然击中我，过去几年

1132
00:33:44,369 --> 00:33:45,769
你知道大概是2010年

1133
00:33:45,769 --> 00:33:46,529
2011年

1134
00:33:46,529 --> 00:33:47,250
那段时间里

1135
00:33:47,250 --> 00:33:48,859
我想是2010年

1136
00:33:49,180 --> 00:33:50,660
我还记得

1137
00:33:50,660 --> 00:33:52,240
这是我真正开始关注的

1138
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,000
比如大量观看CNBC等节目

1139
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,630
没错

1140
00:33:54,630 --> 00:33:57,789
我记得当时有很多双衰退讨论

1141
00:33:57,789 --> 00:33:58,150
而且

1142
00:33:58,150 --> 00:33:58,589
天啊

1143
00:33:58,589 --> 00:33:59,710
这就像一个主题

1144
00:33:59,710 --> 00:34:01,009
每一天都是如此

1145
00:34:01,009 --> 00:34:03,329
这让我想起它太多了

1146
00:34:03,329 --> 00:34:05,130
但这不是双衰退进程

1147
00:34:05,130 --> 00:34:05,430
恐惧

1148
00:34:05,430 --> 00:34:07,470
就像双倍通胀

1149
00:34:07,470 --> 00:34:09,090
恐惧啊嗯

1150
00:34:09,090 --> 00:34:12,360
而每个人都极度担忧

1151
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,639
我们即将再次迎来通胀新高峰

1152
00:34:19,559 --> 00:34:21,579
就像双衰退时期一样

1153
00:34:21,579 --> 00:34:21,820
恐惧

1154
00:34:21,820 --> 00:34:23,099
每个人都害怕

1155
00:34:23,099 --> 00:34:23,460
哦

1156
00:34:23,460 --> 00:34:25,219
你知道我们又要陷入衰退了

1157
00:34:25,219 --> 00:34:27,179
尽管我们刚从上次衰退中走出来

1158
00:34:27,179 --> 00:34:28,139
而且会更糟

1159
00:34:28,139 --> 00:34:30,219
将会造成毁灭性影响

1160
00:34:30,219 --> 00:34:32,019
谈到双衰退时期

1161
00:34:32,019 --> 00:34:32,820
它从未真正

1162
00:34:32,820 --> 00:34:33,699
事实证明

1163
00:34:33,699 --> 00:34:35,980
市场极度恐慌

1164
00:34:35,980 --> 00:34:37,239
市场大幅抛售

1165
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,838
在所有双衰退期间

1166
00:34:38,838 --> 00:34:40,259
在CBC每日讨论

1167
00:34:40,259 --> 00:34:41,039
双衰退

1168
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:41,679
双双进程

1169
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:42,398
天啊

1170
00:34:42,398 --> 00:34:44,679
我觉得甚至向CNBC抱怨过

1171
00:34:44,679 --> 00:34:45,400
你们这些家伙

1172
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:46,139
你知道的

1173
00:34:46,139 --> 00:34:47,898
我想是2010年或2011年

1174
00:34:47,898 --> 00:34:48,739
我简直厌倦了

1175
00:34:48,739 --> 00:34:49,778
够了兄弟

1176
00:34:49,778 --> 00:34:50,978
我们能不能谈谈股票

1177
00:34:50,978 --> 00:34:53,378
你们天天聊双衰退

1178
00:34:53,378 --> 00:34:57,539
对啊不过暂且不论

1179
00:34:57,980 --> 00:34:59,699
这让我联想到它

1180
00:34:59,699 --> 00:35:01,659
我们拭目以待

1181
00:35:01,659 --> 00:35:03,440
也许这次必须警惕

1182
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,550
通胀会飙升失控

1183
00:35:05,550 --> 00:35:08,030
或许这只是短暂波动

1184
00:35:08,030 --> 00:35:10,269
实际上影响不大

1185
00:35:10,269 --> 00:35:11,869
当前油价极高

1186
00:35:11,869 --> 00:35:14,260
但可能未来两三个月降温

1187
00:35:14,260 --> 00:35:15,219
让我们看看

1188
00:35:15,219 --> 00:35:15,699
让我们看看

1189
00:35:15,699 --> 00:35:23,300
市场估值从24倍PE降至科技股19倍

1190
00:35:23,300 --> 00:35:26,920
尤其是主要增长来源

1191
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,260
大部分未来增长来自这里

1192
00:35:29,260 --> 00:35:34,039
斯科特将估值下调至十九倍市盈率

1193
00:35:34,039 --> 00:35:34,500
是的

1194
00:35:34,500 --> 00:35:37,260
当纳斯达克进入修正期时会发生这种情况

1195
00:35:37,260 --> 00:35:38,440
就像今天早上早些时候那样

1196
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,079
已经下跌了百分之十，且在

1197
00:35:41,079 --> 00:35:44,509
所以我看他们目前处于半个百分点

1198
00:35:44,509 --> 00:35:45,128
从技术角度

1199
00:35:45,128 --> 00:35:46,278
但确实如此

1200
00:35:46,278 --> 00:35:50,338
是否在提升投资组合质量

1201
00:35:50,338 --> 00:35:54,099
没错，我认为周期性板块会更危险

1202
00:35:54,099 --> 00:35:56,719
因为利率维持高位的压力

1203
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,440
由于消费者经济压力

1204
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:00,820
这确实存在

1205
00:36:00,820 --> 00:36:01,360
好的

1206
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:02,699
我想打断你两秒钟

1207
00:36:02,699 --> 00:36:06,309
关于所谓的

1208
00:36:06,309 --> 00:36:08,010
升级投资组合

1209
00:36:08,010 --> 00:36:12,409
在当前环境下根本没有真正途径

1210
00:36:12,409 --> 00:36:13,929
除非持有现金

1211
00:36:13,929 --> 00:36:16,918
今天无处可藏

1212
00:36:16,918 --> 00:36:17,579
以头条新闻

1213
00:36:17,579 --> 00:36:20,298
传统的全球股票与固定收益资产六四配置

1214
00:36:20,298 --> 00:36:21,219
与固定收益

1215
00:36:21,219 --> 00:36:23,880
遭遇自2022年以来最差月份

1216
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:28,019
这凸显了市场中确实无处可藏

1217
00:36:28,019 --> 00:36:30,938
绝对无处可藏

1218
00:36:30,938 --> 00:36:31,778
除了能源板块

1219
00:36:31,778 --> 00:36:32,699
正如你所说

1220
00:36:32,699 --> 00:36:34,219
但我们可以确信

1221
00:36:34,219 --> 00:36:34,780
不过

1222
00:36:34,780 --> 00:36:37,500
你知道标普五百指数中仅占3%

1223
00:36:37,500 --> 00:36:38,440
我们

1224
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:39,940
我们超配

1225
00:36:39,940 --> 00:36:41,469
确实有藏身之处

1226
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,239
现在不是藏身时机

1227
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,059
几个月前就应该藏身

1228
00:36:46,059 --> 00:36:46,739
没错

1229
00:36:46,739 --> 00:36:48,480
看看我去年在做什么

1230
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,079
疯狂囤积现金

1231
00:36:50,079 --> 00:36:51,360
没错

1232
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,960
大量买入TLZ等对冲工具

1233
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:54,679
人们会说

1234
00:36:54,679 --> 00:36:55,559
你疯了

1235
00:36:55,559 --> 00:36:56,960
看看市场多 bullish

1236
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,360
特斯拉股价会涨到一千美元

1237
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:58,980
没错

1238
00:36:58,980 --> 00:37:00,469
 blah blah blah 嗯

1239
00:37:00,469 --> 00:37:02,110
市场中仍有获利途径

1240
00:37:02,110 --> 00:37:04,230
显然如果你持有几乎所有标的的看跌期权

1241
00:37:04,230 --> 00:37:06,550
并在去年对冲了整个投资组合

1242
00:37:06,550 --> 00:37:07,340
对

1243
00:37:07,340 --> 00:37:11,659
去年年底我一直在谈论对冲策略

1244
00:37:11,659 --> 00:37:14,860
你知道现在可能该考虑一些对冲工具了，比如

1245
00:37:14,860 --> 00:37:15,099
你知道的

1246
00:37:15,099 --> 00:37:15,820
以及类似这样的东西

1247
00:37:15,820 --> 00:37:17,400
如果你加一些对冲措施

1248
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,469
你是否在年初买入了TLZ

1249
00:37:20,469 --> 00:37:24,588
是否在几乎所有股票上买入认沽期权来对冲投资组合

1250
00:37:24,588 --> 00:37:25,420
兄弟

1251
00:37:25,420 --> 00:37:29,179
你在这上面赚了大钱现在可以清仓了

1252
00:37:29,179 --> 00:37:32,260
然后在贷款仓位或未来一两个月清仓

1253
00:37:32,260 --> 00:37:33,139
想做什么就做什么

1254
00:37:33,139 --> 00:37:37,289
但我只是觉得现在市场有赚钱的机会

1255
00:37:37,289 --> 00:37:41,389
我不太确定现在是否要加对冲

1256
00:37:41,389 --> 00:37:45,599
纳斯达克已经从历史高点下跌了12.5%

1257
00:37:45,599 --> 00:37:46,960
但这并不意味着

1258
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:48,250
比如

1259
00:37:48,250 --> 00:37:49,010
市场不可能继续下跌

1260
00:37:49,010 --> 00:37:49,530
当然肯

1261
00:37:49,530 --> 00:37:54,280
但市场之前那种极度狂热的感觉

1262
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,360
现在大家变得非常谨慎或看空

1263
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,148
看看过去几周的AI投资者情绪

1264
00:38:00,148 --> 00:38:00,748
已经

1265
00:38:00,748 --> 00:38:01,108
你知道的

1266
00:38:01,108 --> 00:38:02,329
在50%的区间波动

1267
00:38:02,329 --> 00:38:06,219
50%的投资者认为未来六个月市场看跌

1268
00:38:06,219 --> 00:38:09,280
现在买入认沽期权需要高价

1269
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,900
年初买入认沽期权几乎免费

1270
00:38:11,900 --> 00:38:13,809
当时VIX指数极低

1271
00:38:13,809 --> 00:38:15,449
当VIX指数处于低位时

1272
00:38:15,449 --> 00:38:17,389
同时大家普遍看涨

1273
00:38:17,389 --> 00:38:18,010
兄弟

1274
00:38:18,010 --> 00:38:20,300
现在可以以极低价格买入认沽期权

1275
00:38:20,300 --> 00:38:22,900
几乎所有股票都能买入认沽期权

1276
00:38:22,900 --> 00:38:25,760
你已经赚得盆满钵满

1277
00:38:26,519 --> 00:38:28,980
或许未来考虑对冲

1278
00:38:28,980 --> 00:38:30,139
在市场狂热时

1279
00:38:30,139 --> 00:38:31,579
或者比如

1280
00:38:31,579 --> 00:38:33,280
保持更充足的现金储备

1281
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:34,489
比如

1282
00:38:34,489 --> 00:38:35,849
这些都是需要学习的经验

1283
00:38:35,849 --> 00:38:37,190
随着时间推移自然明白

1284
00:38:37,190 --> 00:38:37,449
比如

1285
00:38:37,449 --> 00:38:40,090
我不能要求所有人都像我一样操作

1286
00:38:40,090 --> 00:38:40,730
我在市场中

1287
00:38:40,730 --> 00:38:42,219
已有七百年经验

1288
00:38:42,219 --> 00:38:43,119
能源板块

1289
00:38:43,119 --> 00:38:44,659
我们明显超配

1290
00:38:44,659 --> 00:38:46,260
那个名字我不太喜欢

1291
00:38:46,260 --> 00:38:46,980
无处可藏

1292
00:38:46,980 --> 00:38:48,159
或者没有赚钱的方法

1293
00:38:48,159 --> 00:38:48,460
现在

1294
00:38:48,460 --> 00:38:49,739
已经有很多方法了

1295
00:38:49,739 --> 00:38:51,380
你可以轻松赚钱

1296
00:38:51,380 --> 00:38:53,380
这些领域很有吸引力

1297
00:38:53,380 --> 00:38:53,699
是的

1298
00:38:53,699 --> 00:38:54,960
其中一些已经做到了

1299
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,119
但其他表现依然惊人地稳健

1300
00:38:58,119 --> 00:39:03,929
因为我们从较低的评估起点开始

1301
00:39:04,409 --> 00:39:07,949
客户的投资组合今年持平

1302
00:39:07,949 --> 00:39:10,010
这显示市场正在多元化

1303
00:39:10,010 --> 00:39:11,699
取得了一些成功

1304
00:39:11,699 --> 00:39:13,559
造成了一些头条新闻的冲击

1305
00:39:13,559 --> 00:39:16,699
但如果我要和客户讨论该怎么做

1306
00:39:16,699 --> 00:39:19,219
我得在这里加大投入力度

1307
00:39:19,219 --> 00:39:22,739
试着获得更多未来走势的可见性

1308
00:39:22,739 --> 00:39:26,309
你知道吗，稍微放缓一点脚步

1309
00:39:26,309 --> 00:39:28,159
如果你有资金可以投入

1310
00:39:28,159 --> 00:39:28,780
哦

1311
00:39:28,780 --> 00:39:29,539
这很有趣

1312
00:39:29,539 --> 00:39:30,679
这会非常有趣

1313
00:39:30,679 --> 00:39:31,199
呃

1314
00:39:31,199 --> 00:39:34,119
我想向大家推荐一只非常有趣的股票

1315
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,889
看看这家麦当劳

1316
00:39:40,050 --> 00:39:41,170
这

1317
00:39:42,170 --> 00:39:43,090
这很强劲

1318
00:39:43,090 --> 00:39:46,750
这基本在告诉你们，当这场市场动荡结束后

1319
00:39:46,750 --> 00:39:48,789
无论持续一天

1320
00:39:48,789 --> 00:39:51,750
几周或数月

1321
00:39:51,750 --> 00:39:53,110
当它结束时

1322
00:39:53,110 --> 00:39:59,010
AMD将启动绝对疯狂的飙升

1323
00:39:59,369 --> 00:40:02,369
这只股票表现非常稳健

1324
00:40:02,369 --> 00:40:04,849
非常非常非常稳健

1325
00:40:04,849 --> 00:40:06,090
对吧

1326
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:07,940
我喜欢

1327
00:40:07,940 --> 00:40:08,780
我喜欢

1328
00:40:08,780 --> 00:40:11,199
你知道这是我今天表现最好的股票

1329
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,900
表现远超大盘

1330
00:40:14,900 --> 00:40:15,559
对吧

1331
00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:17,489
所以是的

1332
00:40:17,489 --> 00:40:19,648
你知道这只股票准备暴涨

1333
00:40:19,648 --> 00:40:21,469
一旦我们触底反弹

1334
00:40:21,469 --> 00:40:23,719
无论何时准备好

1335
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:27,318
AMD将大幅飙升

1336
00:40:27,318 --> 00:40:28,139
比如

1337
00:40:28,139 --> 00:40:29,438
稍微放慢一点

1338
00:40:29,438 --> 00:40:30,398
稍微放慢一点

1339
00:40:30,398 --> 00:40:32,018
如果你有资金可以投入

1340
00:40:32,018 --> 00:40:32,398
好的

1341
00:40:32,398 --> 00:40:33,559
我会放慢脚步

1342
00:40:33,559 --> 00:40:35,639
但我已做好准备

1343
00:40:35,639 --> 00:40:40,519
因为我们知道在过去几年里我们最成功的押注

1344
00:40:40,519 --> 00:40:43,809
就是不要看空白宫

1345
00:40:43,809 --> 00:40:45,369
这不是政治表态

1346
00:40:45,369 --> 00:40:46,789
我完全清楚这是什么意思

1347
00:40:46,789 --> 00:40:51,000
这就是为什么我认为没有人会说

1348
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,880
即使在所谓的头条疲劳环境中

1349
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,639
或许市场并未关注华盛顿的每一句话

1350
00:40:58,639 --> 00:41:01,699
在过去的24到48小时内

1351
00:41:01,699 --> 00:41:05,960
不要低估一条头条或社交媒体帖子

1352
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:10,079
关于任何重大突破的消息可能大幅影响市场

1353
00:41:10,079 --> 00:41:13,079
现在大家都同意这一点

1354
00:41:13,079 --> 00:41:17,778
在稍微谨慎一些方面

1355
00:41:17,778 --> 00:41:21,818
因此在迷雾中观察并试图弄清情况

1356
00:41:21,818 --> 00:41:24,219
今日全球资产配置情况

1357
00:41:24,219 --> 00:41:25,858
他们将股票调至中性

1358
00:41:25,858 --> 00:41:26,778
嗯

1359
00:41:26,778 --> 00:41:30,858
因为大部分负面股票信号已被触发

1360
00:41:30,858 --> 00:41:32,739
因此他们选择暂时退后一步

1361
00:41:32,739 --> 00:41:32,938
你知道的

1362
00:41:32,938 --> 00:41:34,528
就像其他人一样

1363
00:41:34,889 --> 00:41:38,528
我们尚未准备好发起进攻

1364
00:41:38,528 --> 00:41:41,028
甚至不一定是防守

1365
00:41:41,028 --> 00:41:42,670
只是观望等待

1366
00:41:42,670 --> 00:41:42,989
嗯

1367
00:41:42,989 --> 00:41:45,000
我强烈赞同观望态度

1368
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,480
我不像城市那样悲观

1369
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:48,199
我完全同意

1370
00:41:48,199 --> 00:41:49,400
我们都持相同观点

1371
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,000
这里存在大量相互冲突的因素

1372
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:51,239
是的

1373
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:52,940
西德克萨斯中间原油价格上涨

1374
00:41:52,940 --> 00:41:53,420
然而

1375
00:41:53,420 --> 00:41:55,980
迪拜和阿曼价差下跌

1376
00:41:55,980 --> 00:41:57,380
你知道的

1377
00:41:57,380 --> 00:41:59,539
周五价差全面波动

1378
00:41:59,539 --> 00:42:02,539
这是连续第四周周五下跌

1379
00:42:02,539 --> 00:42:05,440
这是否意味着下周一将连续第四周上涨

1380
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:06,389
无人知晓

1381
00:42:06,389 --> 00:42:09,409
现在最好的做法是保持观望

1382
00:42:09,409 --> 00:42:11,030
不做重大操作

1383
00:42:11,030 --> 00:42:12,969
现在不要恐慌

1384
00:42:12,969 --> 00:42:14,349
要小心思考

1385
00:42:14,349 --> 00:42:15,809
这正是绝佳机会

1386
00:42:15,809 --> 00:42:18,010
存在大量军事资产

1387
00:42:18,010 --> 00:42:18,170
U

1388
00:42:18,170 --> 00:42:20,639
美国军事资产正在部署

1389
00:42:20,639 --> 00:42:23,179
这位总统从不虚张声势

1390
00:42:23,179 --> 00:42:23,519
我的意思是

1391
00:42:23,519 --> 00:42:24,400
这纯粹是事实

1392
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,699
他在战区调动这些资产时使用过

1393
00:42:27,699 --> 00:42:28,619
所以我应该

1394
00:42:28,619 --> 00:42:29,559
我需要谨慎行事

1395
00:42:29,559 --> 00:42:31,679
但不必到抛售的地步

1396
00:42:31,679 --> 00:42:34,699
这里有个我们未提及的利好因素

1397
00:42:34,699 --> 00:42:37,619
标普500的盈利预期情况如何

1398
00:42:37,619 --> 00:42:38,800
整体来看标普500

1399
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:43,280
这些预期在冲突爆发后一个月内上涨了2%

1400
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,380
同比呈现16%的增长

1401
00:42:46,380 --> 00:42:47,900
如果这些预期得以实现

1402
00:42:47,900 --> 00:42:50,000
相比20倍的市盈率

1403
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:50,360
市盈率倍数

1404
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,480
我认为这实际上是个 bargain

1405
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,079
这些预期能否实现

1406
00:42:54,079 --> 00:42:55,079
这些盈利预期

1407
00:42:55,079 --> 00:42:56,000
其能源板块

1408
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,260
能源板块的预期已飙升

1409
00:42:58,260 --> 00:43:01,480
但大部分仍属于人工智能基建阶段

1410
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,469
我认为不会改变

1411
00:43:03,469 --> 00:43:06,630
你认为每个人从自身角度

1412
00:43:06,630 --> 00:43:07,630
你怎么看这个问题

1413
00:43:07,630 --> 00:43:10,110
我们年初本预期降息

1414
00:43:10,110 --> 00:43:11,949
正如你开头提到的

1415
00:43:11,949 --> 00:43:14,670
认为有50%加息可能

1416
00:43:14,670 --> 00:43:17,320
这将破坏盈利增长势头

1417
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,340
若通胀影响消费者

1418
00:43:20,340 --> 00:43:22,099
我们已看到能源端的通胀

1419
00:43:22,099 --> 00:43:25,599
若传导至企业利润和最终盈利

1420
00:43:25,599 --> 00:43:26,699
我们将面临问题

1421
00:43:26,699 --> 00:43:28,099
我喜欢城市板块

1422
00:43:28,099 --> 00:43:30,239
建议暂时离场转为中性

1423
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:31,320
我赞同罗布的观点

1424
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,179
但这不意味要择时操作

1425
00:43:33,179 --> 00:43:34,460
这是徒劳的

1426
00:43:34,460 --> 00:43:36,460
但应保留部分现金

1427
00:43:36,460 --> 00:43:37,980
把握逢低买入机会

1428
00:43:37,980 --> 00:43:39,519
同时降低预期

1429
00:43:39,519 --> 00:43:42,599
我无法想象盈利不会下滑

1430
00:43:42,599 --> 00:43:44,429
如果一个月后仍无中东变化

1431
00:43:44,429 --> 00:43:46,030
我认为这就是关键节点

1432
00:43:46,030 --> 00:43:47,989
这就是你所说的困境

1433
00:43:47,989 --> 00:43:48,469
我的意思是

1434
00:43:48,469 --> 00:43:49,389
这是一个很好的观点

1435
00:43:49,389 --> 00:43:52,539
如果你的投入成本

1436
00:43:52,539 --> 00:43:55,179
在多个领域上涨

1437
00:43:55,179 --> 00:43:56,159
不仅限于燃料

1438
00:43:56,159 --> 00:44:01,769
但若谈论粮食供应中断

1439
00:44:01,769 --> 00:44:05,210
将涉及众多类型企业

1440
00:44:05,210 --> 00:44:07,869
其利润率可能受负面影响

1441
00:44:07,869 --> 00:44:09,570
因此存在更高通胀

1442
00:44:09,570 --> 00:44:10,769
更高的利率

1443
00:44:10,769 --> 00:44:12,510
利润率下降

1444
00:44:12,510 --> 00:44:14,130
估值倍数下降

1445
00:44:14,130 --> 00:44:16,519
这意味着股票不值得当前价格交易

1446
00:44:16,519 --> 00:44:19,139
它们现在交易的价格水平

1447
00:44:19,139 --> 00:44:21,559
它们也需要向下重估

1448
00:44:21,559 --> 00:44:23,739
如果生产力提高

1449
00:44:23,739 --> 00:44:24,920
那究竟是什么

1450
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,719
你可能已经这样了

1451
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,420
但实际加速了什么

1452
00:44:29,420 --> 00:44:30,880
得益于所有技术进步

1453
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:31,960
得益于人工智能

1454
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:35,880
公司表示正在实现大规模成本削减

1455
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:37,480
因为正在实施

1456
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:41,519
人工智能在劳动力市场常被诟病抢夺岗位

1457
00:44:41,519 --> 00:44:45,780
但很少有人讨论增长与生产力提升

1458
00:44:45,780 --> 00:44:48,659
若获得更多生产力将有助于缓解

1459
00:44:48,659 --> 00:44:53,239
无法完全抵消所有费用项目

1460
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,000
但肯定能部分抵消

1461
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,960
我不认为公司会接受利润率下降

1462
00:44:59,960 --> 00:45:02,159
他们会找到新方法

1463
00:45:02,159 --> 00:45:03,440
你可能别无选择

1464
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:03,900
我是说

1465
00:45:03,900 --> 00:45:04,880
各位看这里

1466
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:06,480
看这里

1467
00:45:08,679 --> 00:45:09,489
铜

1468
00:45:09,489 --> 00:45:12,090
他们称之为dr kappa对吧

1469
00:45:12,090 --> 00:45:15,150
铜总是被视为市场关注对象

1470
00:45:15,150 --> 00:45:17,719
当市场试图判断衰退风险时

1471
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:18,559
他们认为

1472
00:45:18,559 --> 00:45:20,719
铜价上涨预示经济向好

1473
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:21,940
反映经济信心

1474
00:45:21,940 --> 00:45:25,019
若铜价下跌至谷底

1475
00:45:25,019 --> 00:45:26,820
再次发出衰退信号

1476
00:45:26,820 --> 00:45:27,920
但这未必准确

1477
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,460
市场在暗示衰退

1478
00:45:30,460 --> 00:45:30,940
这是常见现象

1479
00:45:30,940 --> 00:45:32,219
或者正在发生

1480
00:45:32,219 --> 00:45:36,500
本周铜价同比下降14%

1481
00:45:36,500 --> 00:45:38,099
铜价大幅下跌14%

1482
00:45:38,099 --> 00:45:40,599
市场发出负面信号

1483
00:45:40,599 --> 00:45:41,900
情况不好

1484
00:45:41,900 --> 00:45:44,280
尤其在大宗商品牛市周期中

1485
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,150
观察今年gsgs涨幅

1486
00:45:46,150 --> 00:45:47,190
gg上涨

1487
00:45:47,190 --> 00:45:47,670
你知道的

1488
00:45:47,670 --> 00:45:48,610
上涨38%

1489
00:45:48,610 --> 00:45:49,230
接近30

1490
00:45:49,230 --> 00:45:50,110
9%

1491
00:45:50,110 --> 00:45:53,719
而铜价下跌14%

1492
00:45:54,798 --> 00:45:56,579
所以我们正在讨论

1493
00:45:56,579 --> 00:45:57,519
你知道的

1494
00:45:57,519 --> 00:45:57,900
基本上

1495
00:45:58,940 --> 00:45:59,480
呃

1496
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:00,739
嗯，那好吧

1497
00:46:00,739 --> 00:46:03,400
这种铜和这种铜并不一样

1498
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,119
但无论如何存在巨大分歧

1499
00:46:05,119 --> 00:46:05,280
没错

1500
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,400
铜价今年以来一直在下跌

1501
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,440
而gsg整体大幅上涨

1502
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:10,980
这确实

1503
00:46:10,980 --> 00:46:13,840
这确实是市场衰退信号

1504
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:15,960
可能不得不

1505
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,360
他们可能不得不接受

1506
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:19,398
最初阶段

1507
00:46:19,398 --> 00:46:20,759
你建议说

1508
00:46:20,759 --> 00:46:22,079
他们可能会迅速重组

1509
00:46:22,079 --> 00:46:22,438
不

1510
00:46:22,438 --> 00:46:23,659
不会这样运作

1511
00:46:23,659 --> 00:46:28,139
如果能源价格和运输成本等都在上涨

1512
00:46:28,139 --> 00:46:32,929
但关于如何隐藏或操作的看法

1513
00:46:32,929 --> 00:46:37,989
当我告诉你六四开已创2022年最差单月

1514
00:46:37,989 --> 00:46:38,650
呃

1515
00:46:38,650 --> 00:46:39,110
你知道的

1516
00:46:39,110 --> 00:46:42,550
其他公司正将策略调至中性，迈克尔·哈特nett在美银

1517
00:46:42,550 --> 00:46:43,550
在流动秀节目中

1518
00:46:43,550 --> 00:46:45,190
我认为总结得很到位

1519
00:46:45,190 --> 00:46:46,550
在良好市场中

1520
00:46:46,550 --> 00:46:47,510
当指数下跌时

1521
00:46:47,510 --> 00:46:48,909
他提到的是标普指数

1522
00:46:48,909 --> 00:46:49,630
在良好市场

1523
00:46:49,630 --> 00:46:50,750
当指数跌破

1524
00:46:50,750 --> 00:46:51,670
200日均线

1525
00:46:51,670 --> 00:46:53,429
投资者平仓空头

1526
00:46:53,429 --> 00:46:54,889
但在糟糕市场

1527
00:46:54,889 --> 00:46:56,849
这时他们会抛售资产

1528
00:46:56,849 --> 00:46:57,940
顺便说一句

1529
00:46:57,940 --> 00:46:59,619
有数据支持这一点

1530
00:46:59,619 --> 00:47:00,619
美国股市

1531
00:47:00,619 --> 00:47:01,360
23点

1532
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,219
流出600亿美元资金

1533
00:47:03,219 --> 00:47:05,000
这是13周以来最大规模

1534
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,320
人们正在撤离

1535
00:47:08,250 --> 00:47:09,190
发生了什么

1536
00:47:09,190 --> 00:47:12,150
但良好与糟糕市场的区别

1537
00:47:12,150 --> 00:47:12,730
经常如此

1538
00:47:12,730 --> 00:47:13,610
我们正在思考

1539
00:47:13,610 --> 00:47:14,690
从基本面角度

1540
00:47:14,690 --> 00:47:16,969
我们可以理解这一点

1541
00:47:16,969 --> 00:47:17,449
盈利

1542
00:47:17,449 --> 00:47:18,010
加息举措

1543
00:47:18,010 --> 00:47:18,860
这类事情

1544
00:47:18,860 --> 00:47:24,000
当前区分好市场与跌破200日均线的坏市场的区别

1545
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,340
跌破200日均线就是战争迷雾

1546
00:47:26,340 --> 00:47:28,940
完全不可预测

1547
00:47:28,940 --> 00:47:30,260
我们已经看到

1548
00:47:30,260 --> 00:47:31,300
我们周一就见过

1549
00:47:31,300 --> 00:47:33,599
他发推或政策变化

1550
00:47:33,599 --> 00:47:36,860
无论是否真实或实质性

1551
00:47:36,860 --> 00:47:38,289
都会影响市场

1552
00:47:38,289 --> 00:47:40,010
所以必须做好准备

1553
00:47:40,010 --> 00:47:41,389
如果你想看空

1554
00:47:41,389 --> 00:47:42,719
我不在市场中

1555
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:43,000
好的

1556
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:43,900
我不想看空

1557
00:47:43,900 --> 00:47:44,960
如果你想的话

1558
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,059
你在准备什么

1559
00:47:46,059 --> 00:47:47,920
你在说里面有什么

1560
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:49,360
我只能说

1561
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:50,340
我还在坚持

1562
00:47:50,340 --> 00:47:50,760
斯科特

1563
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,940
我不喜欢油价走势

1564
00:47:52,940 --> 00:47:54,840
我不喜欢这些讨论

1565
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,420
加息我也反对

1566
00:47:56,420 --> 00:47:56,739
我是说

1567
00:47:56,739 --> 00:47:57,300
你在操作吗

1568
00:47:57,300 --> 00:47:58,300
我正在分析

1569
00:47:58,300 --> 00:47:58,420
比如

1570
00:47:58,420 --> 00:47:59,059
这是什么意思

1571
00:47:59,059 --> 00:48:00,480
我不对市场看空

1572
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:01,300
你在坚持吗

1573
00:48:01,300 --> 00:48:02,440
你满仓了吗

1574
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:03,719
而我还在坚持

1575
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:04,820
我感觉不好

1576
00:48:04,820 --> 00:48:06,050
我感觉不好

1577
00:48:06,050 --> 00:48:06,949
但我没动

1578
00:48:06,949 --> 00:48:07,949
我每天早上醒来

1579
00:48:07,949 --> 00:48:09,349
今天该卖什么吗

1580
00:48:09,349 --> 00:48:09,769
不

1581
00:48:09,769 --> 00:48:10,610
没反应

1582
00:48:10,610 --> 00:48:11,778
我不卖

1583
00:48:11,778 --> 00:48:12,338
啊

1584
00:48:12,338 --> 00:48:13,039
但听我说

1585
00:48:13,039 --> 00:48:14,239
大家注意

1586
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:15,219
这就是华尔街

1587
00:48:15,219 --> 00:48:16,519
过度担忧

1588
00:48:16,519 --> 00:48:17,039
在思考

1589
00:48:17,039 --> 00:48:17,860
该卖东西吗

1590
00:48:17,860 --> 00:48:19,400
他说每天早上醒来都在想

1591
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:20,139
今天该卖什么

1592
00:48:21,460 --> 00:48:23,739
只需要再多一点伤害

1593
00:48:23,980 --> 00:48:26,739
然后越来越多的华尔街抛售

1594
00:48:26,739 --> 00:48:31,110
这就是vix迎来最后狂欢的时候

1595
00:48:31,110 --> 00:48:32,889
没错因为随后他们会开始说

1596
00:48:32,889 --> 00:48:33,469
你知道的

1597
00:48:33,469 --> 00:48:36,030
甚至那些勉强支撑的也开始抛售

1598
00:48:36,030 --> 00:48:38,510
引发大规模连锁抛售

1599
00:48:38,510 --> 00:48:40,059
你会看到他们

1600
00:48:40,059 --> 00:48:41,599
开始做空股票

1601
00:48:41,599 --> 00:48:42,260
买入看跌期权

1602
00:48:42,260 --> 00:48:42,719
因为他们觉得

1603
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,219
这就是赚钱的机会

1604
00:48:44,219 --> 00:48:47,280
这时vix就会迎来最后高潮

1605
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:49,139
现在这种情况是否会发生

1606
00:48:49,139 --> 00:48:50,300
我们拭目以待

1607
00:48:50,300 --> 00:48:51,719
另外这种情况何时发生

1608
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:56,559
是这个月还是下个月或四季度

1609
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,260
尚需观察

1610
00:48:58,260 --> 00:48:59,840
故事的核心在于掌控

1611
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:00,659
你能掌控的部分

1612
00:49:00,659 --> 00:49:01,320
你能掌控的部分

1613
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,059
是在极具吸引力的估值下买入优质公司

1614
00:49:04,059 --> 00:49:08,248
没错这就是我正在做的事并确保获取千股优惠

1615
00:49:08,248 --> 00:49:10,289
当我们降价时会打五折

1616
00:49:10,289 --> 00:49:11,599
原价

1617
00:49:11,599 --> 00:49:12,139
会员资格

1618
00:49:12,139 --> 00:49:13,239
愚人节玩笑

1619
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:14,119
别当愚人优惠

1620
00:49:14,119 --> 00:49:16,309
查看下方置顶评论并留下你的名字

1621
00:49:16,309 --> 00:49:18,849
然后提供你的邮箱或手机号

1622
00:49:18,849 --> 00:49:20,909
如果你想接收短信通知

1623
00:49:20,909 --> 00:49:21,949
我们可以通过短信发送

1624
00:49:21,949 --> 00:49:23,900
如果你想通过邮件接收优惠

1625
00:49:23,900 --> 00:49:25,219
我们可以通过邮件发送

1626
00:49:25,219 --> 00:49:26,840
这是全站所有功能的访问权限

1627
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,840
千倍x拥有我们的搜索功能

1628
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:29,559
对比功能

1629
00:49:29,559 --> 00:49:30,579
我们的图表功能

1630
00:49:30,579 --> 00:49:33,079
绝对精美

1631
00:49:33,079 --> 00:49:34,840
现在你看到的是低估值预测

1632
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,440
公司的中等估值预测

1633
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:37,940
以及高估值预测

1634
00:49:37,940 --> 00:49:39,769
同样适用于每股收益预测

1635
00:49:39,769 --> 00:49:40,329
哦

1636
00:49:40,329 --> 00:49:41,130
太漂亮了

1637
00:49:41,130 --> 00:49:42,349
我们还提供财务数据

1638
00:49:42,349 --> 00:49:42,809
损益表

1639
00:49:42,809 --> 00:49:43,489
资产负债表

1640
00:49:43,489 --> 00:49:46,650
能够运行完整公司财务预测

1641
00:49:46,650 --> 00:49:48,309
你也可以保存自己的预测

1642
00:49:48,309 --> 00:49:49,489
所以如果我们想调出

1643
00:49:49,489 --> 00:49:51,690
假设我的amd预测在这里

1644
00:49:51,690 --> 00:49:52,980
加载数据

1645
00:49:52,980 --> 00:49:56,840
你可以在这里看到所有我的amd预测对吧

1646
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,809
我拿到了我的看涨情景

1647
00:49:58,809 --> 00:50:00,449
我有我的基准情景md

1648
00:50:00,449 --> 00:50:01,730
我有我的悲观情景md

1649
00:50:01,730 --> 00:50:02,929
当你运行你的预测时

1650
00:50:02,929 --> 00:50:03,809
你可以保存它们

1651
00:50:03,809 --> 00:50:05,269
然后以后调用

1652
00:50:05,269 --> 00:50:07,050
我看到有很多股票

1653
00:50:07,050 --> 00:50:08,179
都有预测

1654
00:50:08,179 --> 00:50:08,619
有时候

1655
00:50:08,619 --> 00:50:09,619
我会忘记保存

1656
00:50:09,619 --> 00:50:10,260
不幸的是

1657
00:50:10,260 --> 00:50:12,440
我们还有一个高级预测功能

1658
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:14,849
你可以在这里深入细节

1659
00:50:14,849 --> 00:50:15,608
真的

1660
00:50:15,608 --> 00:50:16,849
你可以尽情发挥

1661
00:50:16,849 --> 00:50:18,489
如果你想用轮子

1662
00:50:18,489 --> 00:50:19,550
有财报电话会

1663
00:50:19,550 --> 00:50:22,329
所以我们为你做AI摘要

1664
00:50:22,329 --> 00:50:23,730
最重要的部分

1665
00:50:23,730 --> 00:50:25,769
我们认为在会议中发生的内容

1666
00:50:25,769 --> 00:50:27,730
我们也做完整转录

1667
00:50:27,730 --> 00:50:30,170
当然你可以调整速度

1668
00:50:30,170 --> 00:50:32,530
你也想听这些电话会

1669
00:50:32,530 --> 00:50:33,289
我们有指标

1670
00:50:33,289 --> 00:50:35,309
我们有教育板块在这里

1671
00:50:35,309 --> 00:50:36,809
如何解读资产负债表

1672
00:50:36,809 --> 00:50:37,429
损益表

1673
00:50:37,429 --> 00:50:37,989
现金流量

1674
00:50:37,989 --> 00:50:38,070
所以

1675
00:50:38,070 --> 00:50:40,300
比如说我总是听到杰里米说

1676
00:50:40,300 --> 00:50:41,440
你没有损益表

1677
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:42,019
资产负债表

1678
00:50:42,019 --> 00:50:42,500
现金流量像

1679
00:50:42,500 --> 00:50:44,019
这些东西怎么运作对吧

1680
00:50:44,019 --> 00:50:44,900
有一份完整文档

1681
00:50:44,900 --> 00:50:46,699
会解释所有内容

1682
00:50:46,699 --> 00:50:47,599
什么是重要的

1683
00:50:47,599 --> 00:50:48,300
什么是好的

1684
00:50:48,300 --> 00:50:50,239
损益表中什么不好

1685
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,608
你可以通过这个资料

1686
00:50:52,608 --> 00:50:53,068
你知道的

1687
00:50:53,068 --> 00:50:55,648
花45分钟到一小时后你会惊叹

1688
00:50:55,648 --> 00:50:56,688
我现在大概明白了

1689
00:50:56,688 --> 00:50:58,248
我开始理解损益表了

1690
00:50:58,248 --> 00:50:59,768
就这样在一小时内

1691
00:50:59,768 --> 00:51:01,110
突然你就会恍然大悟

1692
00:51:01,110 --> 00:51:02,309
现在这有点讲得通了

1693
00:51:02,309 --> 00:51:03,769
然后你会越来越有信心

1694
00:51:03,769 --> 00:51:04,449
然后你就会说

1695
00:51:04,449 --> 00:51:05,349
但这意味着什么

1696
00:51:05,349 --> 00:51:06,989
你回到文档继续学习

1697
00:51:06,989 --> 00:51:10,239
这是我们这里众多不同学科的内容

1698
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:11,940
嗯在x平台上

1699
00:51:11,940 --> 00:51:13,420
我们不仅有这些

1700
00:51:13,420 --> 00:51:14,340
还有资产负债表

1701
00:51:14,340 --> 00:51:14,920
现金流量表

1702
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:16,199
如何进行SWOT分析

1703
00:51:16,199 --> 00:51:18,639
这是你能做的最重要的事情之一

1704
00:51:18,639 --> 00:51:20,670
特斯拉股东本周惊慌失措

1705
00:51:20,670 --> 00:51:21,469
因为啊

1706
00:51:21,469 --> 00:51:23,929
Costco推出了竞品产品

1707
00:51:23,929 --> 00:51:24,550
我说兄弟

1708
00:51:24,550 --> 00:51:26,639
如果你之前做过SWOT分析

1709
00:51:26,639 --> 00:51:28,320
你早就应该意识到

1710
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:29,079
比如优势

1711
00:51:29,079 --> 00:51:29,760
劣势

1712
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:31,179
机会和威胁

1713
00:51:31,179 --> 00:51:33,820
如何识别企业的强势与弱势模式

1714
00:51:33,820 --> 00:51:35,219
如何估值分红股票

1715
00:51:35,219 --> 00:51:36,179
如何估值成长型股票

1716
00:51:36,179 --> 00:51:37,630
不能用同样的方法估值

1717
00:51:37,630 --> 00:51:39,190
它们的估值差异很大

1718
00:51:39,190 --> 00:51:41,780
分红投资一对一组合管理

1719
00:51:41,780 --> 00:51:42,699
无限资金循环

1720
00:51:42,699 --> 00:51:44,280
这是很好的整体资金策略

1721
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,519
真正基础的期权策略

1722
00:51:46,519 --> 00:51:48,280
高级期权策略

1723
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:49,550
保证金

1724
00:51:49,550 --> 00:51:50,510
市销率

1725
00:51:50,510 --> 00:51:51,630
资本配置

1726
00:51:51,630 --> 00:51:52,190
对吧

1727
00:51:52,190 --> 00:51:52,789
嗯

1728
00:51:52,789 --> 00:51:53,449
总之

1729
00:51:53,449 --> 00:51:56,090
接下来三个月内我们还有很多新功能

1730
00:51:56,090 --> 00:51:57,030
对于千x平台同样适用

1731
00:51:57,030 --> 00:51:57,510
太棒了

1732
00:51:57,510 --> 00:51:58,789
所以点个评论

1733
00:51:58,789 --> 00:52:00,019
利用这个优惠

1734
00:52:00,019 --> 00:52:01,860
当它下周下跌时

1735
00:52:01,860 --> 00:52:03,500
衷心祝福，祝你有个美好一天

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