BV1dvReBZEhg · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,029 欢迎来到本期解读 2 00:00:02,029 --> 00:00:04,230 今天咱们得系好安全带了 3 00:00:04,230 --> 00:00:06,230 因为我们要硬核拆解一份 4 00:00:06,230 --> 00:00:07,849 摩根大通刚刚发布的 5 00:00:07,849 --> 00:00:11,609 关于亚马逊2026年股票研究的深度报告 6 00:00:11,609 --> 00:00:14,000 这份报告可谓是数据密集 7 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:15,240 信息量巨大 8 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,100 但别担心 9 00:00:16,100 --> 00:00:17,800 我们会为您拨开迷雾 10 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:18,820 直击核心 11 00:00:18,820 --> 00:00:21,789 让您迅速掌握最前沿的市场洞察 12 00:00:21,789 --> 00:00:23,210 咱们开门见山 13 00:00:23,210 --> 00:00:26,010 直接来看这个堪称巨无霸的数字 14 00:00:26,010 --> 00:00:27,649 330美元 15 00:00:27,649 --> 00:00:29,890 大家可能在想到底凭什么 16 00:00:29,890 --> 00:00:30,530 凭什么 17 00:00:30,530 --> 00:00:31,839 摩根大通的分析师 18 00:00:31,839 --> 00:00:35,460 要将阿玛总的目标价大幅拉高到330美元 19 00:00:35,460 --> 00:00:38,679 还给他贴上华尔街首选推荐的醒目标签 20 00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:41,079 这背后到底藏着什么证长密码 21 00:00:41,079 --> 00:00:44,628 实际上分析师的核心论点非常直接 22 00:00:44,628 --> 00:00:45,488 他们认为 23 00:00:45,488 --> 00:00:46,689 如今的亚马逊 24 00:00:46,689 --> 00:00:50,250 本质上就像是一枚火力全开的超级火箭 25 00:00:50,250 --> 00:00:53,469 它的两大核心业务不但有没有减速的迹象 26 00:00:53,469 --> 00:00:56,109 反而呈现出咱们很多年都没见过的 27 00:00:56,109 --> 00:00:57,700 完美加速状态 28 00:00:57,700 --> 00:00:58,640 嗯没错 29 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,299 就是全面爆发 30 00:01:00,299 --> 00:01:03,259 而且市场资金可是最聪明的 31 00:01:03,259 --> 00:01:06,698 正在用真金白银为这份预期投票 32 00:01:06,698 --> 00:01:09,289 大家仔细留意最近的这波飙升 33 00:01:09,289 --> 00:01:12,409 亚马逊的股价走势已经极其强势的 34 00:01:12,409 --> 00:01:14,900 脱离了标普500指数的基准线 35 00:01:14,900 --> 00:01:18,629 走出了一波令人拍案叫绝的独立行情 36 00:01:18,629 --> 00:01:22,890 那么要真正搞懂这个惊人的估值飞远 37 00:01:22,890 --> 00:01:25,420 咱们得把亚马逊拆开来看 38 00:01:25,420 --> 00:01:29,250 这其实是一个超级硬核的双引擎故事 39 00:01:29,250 --> 00:01:33,109 一边是作为高科技数字大脑的AWS 40 00:01:33,109 --> 00:01:36,900 正被代理式AI和定制芯片疯狂注入动力 41 00:01:36,900 --> 00:01:40,730 另一边呢则是作为高校物理躯干的零售门店 42 00:01:40,730 --> 00:01:43,189 靠着日常必需品的高频消费 43 00:01:43,189 --> 00:01:47,549 和无处不在的机器人技术稳稳提供着基础动力 44 00:01:47,549 --> 00:01:48,250 好了 45 00:01:48,250 --> 00:01:50,189 咱们先来看看第一部分 46 00:01:50,189 --> 00:01:53,150 AWS的人工智能大繁荣 47 00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:55,349 数据可是不会说谎的 48 00:01:55,349 --> 00:01:56,469 今年第一季度 49 00:01:56,469 --> 00:02:00,430 AWS的营收增速直接拉升到了28% 50 00:02:00,430 --> 00:02:01,870 这是个什么概念呢 51 00:02:01,870 --> 00:02:02,730 简单来说 52 00:02:02,730 --> 00:02:05,959 他创下了过去15个季度以来的最快增速 53 00:02:05,959 --> 00:02:09,360 而且直接飙到了1500亿美元的惊人 54 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,069 年化收入运转率 55 00:02:11,069 --> 00:02:12,229 不过说实话 56 00:02:12,229 --> 00:02:15,430 比当期营收更让人倒吸一口凉气的是 57 00:02:15,430 --> 00:02:17,430 他的订单积压数据 58 00:02:17,430 --> 00:02:21,210 3640亿元美金的未完成承诺订单 59 00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:22,150 大家想想 60 00:02:22,150 --> 00:02:24,870 这简直是个让人难以理解的天文数字 61 00:02:24,870 --> 00:02:27,009 它不仅比上一季度大幅增加 62 00:02:27,009 --> 00:02:28,949 同比更是几乎翻了一番 63 00:02:28,949 --> 00:02:30,949 这相当于给亚马逊未来的收入 64 00:02:30,949 --> 00:02:32,990 打下了一根超级定海神针 65 00:02:32,990 --> 00:02:35,439 这就带出了一个极其关键的点 66 00:02:35,439 --> 00:02:37,599 亚马逊现在可绝不仅仅是个 67 00:02:37,599 --> 00:02:39,969 出租云存储空间的包租公了 68 00:02:39,969 --> 00:02:42,930 他们的定制芯片正在成为全球AI普及 69 00:02:42,930 --> 00:02:44,449 绝对离不开的支柱 70 00:02:44,449 --> 00:02:47,250 你想想超过200亿美元的芯片收入 71 00:02:47,250 --> 00:02:50,629 运转率二十二十五亿的training um承诺订单 72 00:02:50,629 --> 00:02:53,509 甚至连metal都在大规模使用GRAVITTON来跑 73 00:02:53,509 --> 00:02:54,860 他们的代理是AI 74 00:02:54,860 --> 00:02:57,340 更别提bedrock和ANTHROPOOPPIAI 75 00:02:57,340 --> 00:02:58,680 带来的爆炸需求了 76 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,120 这简直是一条别人根本跨不过去的护城河 77 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,479 接着咱们来看第二部分零售业务 78 00:03:05,479 --> 00:03:07,750 那势不可挡的高效运转 79 00:03:07,750 --> 00:03:10,669 摩根大通在这份报告里特别强调 80 00:03:10,669 --> 00:03:14,349 亚马逊的实体和在线门店不仅没有拖后腿 81 00:03:14,349 --> 00:03:16,270 反而表现得极其亮眼 82 00:03:16,270 --> 00:03:19,110 零售商品销量增长加速了300个基点 83 00:03:19,110 --> 00:03:20,729 直接顶到了15趴 84 00:03:20,729 --> 00:03:21,430 要知道 85 00:03:21,430 --> 00:03:25,000 这个是自新冠疫情封锁期结束以来的最高水平 86 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,870 足以证明其核心电商业务有多么恐怖的韧性 87 00:03:28,870 --> 00:03:30,469 而这种增长的背后 88 00:03:30,469 --> 00:03:33,250 其实是消费者行为的大规模转变 89 00:03:33,250 --> 00:03:34,409 你敢信吗 90 00:03:34,409 --> 00:03:37,330 像牙膏纸巾这样的日常必需品 91 00:03:37,330 --> 00:03:41,349 现在居然占据了售出商品总量的差不过40年 92 00:03:41,349 --> 00:03:43,770 大家买日用品的频率越来越高 93 00:03:43,770 --> 00:03:45,789 这种超强的高频粘性 94 00:03:45,789 --> 00:03:48,689 直接让消费者的购物车变得越来越满 95 00:03:48,689 --> 00:03:49,509 当然了 96 00:03:49,509 --> 00:03:50,870 有了规模还不够 97 00:03:50,870 --> 00:03:52,189 还得看效率 98 00:03:52,189 --> 00:03:54,750 通过大规模使用先进的机器人技术 99 00:03:54,750 --> 00:03:58,699 再加上极其精准的超本地化入库库存优化 100 00:03:58,699 --> 00:04:02,780 亚马逊硬是把单件商品的服务成本给打了下来 101 00:04:02,780 --> 00:04:05,439 这直接导致他们北美地区的营业利润率 102 00:04:05,439 --> 00:04:07,300 飙升到了7.9% 103 00:04:07,300 --> 00:04:09,900 远远把华尔街的预期甩在了身后 104 00:04:09,900 --> 00:04:13,060 另外把价值约70亿美元的prime day大促 105 00:04:13,060 --> 00:04:14,039 挪到第二季度 106 00:04:14,039 --> 00:04:17,889 这招也极其漂亮的优化了全年的业务节奏 107 00:04:17,889 --> 00:04:20,370 所以当你把刚才说的AI狂飙 108 00:04:20,370 --> 00:04:22,970 加上零售的极致效率放在一起时 109 00:04:22,970 --> 00:04:25,810 就会得到一份惊掉人下巴的成绩单 110 00:04:25,810 --> 00:04:27,430 第一季度的实际业绩 111 00:04:27,430 --> 00:04:30,250 彻底击穿了华尔街之前的各种预测 112 00:04:30,250 --> 00:04:33,269 净销售额达到1793亿美元 113 00:04:33,269 --> 00:04:36,048 创造了超过20亿美元的营业利润 114 00:04:36,048 --> 00:04:36,728 没错 115 00:04:36,728 --> 00:04:39,869 各项核心指标简直是全线飘红 116 00:04:39,869 --> 00:04:43,839 但是火箭升空是需要海量燃料的 117 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,180 这就来到了我们的第三部分 118 00:04:46,180 --> 00:04:48,480 庞大的人工智能投资 119 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,120 亚马逊坚定地维持了2026年 120 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,269 约2040亿美元的资本支出预期 121 00:04:54,269 --> 00:04:56,740 但这还远远不是最夸张的 122 00:04:56,740 --> 00:04:59,519 摩根大通预计到了2027年 123 00:04:59,519 --> 00:05:02,809 这个数字会出现一个42%的巨大飙升 124 00:05:02,809 --> 00:05:06,519 直接干到史无前例的2910亿美元 125 00:05:06,519 --> 00:05:07,240 我的天 126 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:07,759 要知道 127 00:05:07,759 --> 00:05:10,279 这个数字甚至超过了全球许多国家 128 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:11,930 一整年的GDP总值 129 00:05:11,930 --> 00:05:12,790 很明显 130 00:05:12,790 --> 00:05:15,990 他们这是在为彻底拿下未来AI的主导权 131 00:05:15,990 --> 00:05:17,610 囤积海量弹药 132 00:05:17,610 --> 00:05:21,089 砸这么多钱听起来是不是有点吓人 133 00:05:21,089 --> 00:05:24,370 但摩根大通在这里点出了一个核心逻辑 134 00:05:24,370 --> 00:05:26,629 那就是投资资本回报率 135 00:05:26,629 --> 00:05:30,379 也就是我们常说的ROIC分析师们认为 136 00:05:30,379 --> 00:05:31,680 从长期来看 137 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:35,670 对AI基础设施的投入将带来极其丰厚的回报 138 00:05:35,670 --> 00:05:38,389 这其实就像是当年公共云转型早期 139 00:05:38,389 --> 00:05:39,629 那段历史的重演 140 00:05:39,629 --> 00:05:43,569 前期高投资随后迎来极其恐怖的高利润 141 00:05:43,569 --> 00:05:47,399 可以说阿玛总只是在重复他们最拿手的游戏 142 00:05:47,399 --> 00:05:48,879 那么说了这么多 143 00:05:48,879 --> 00:05:51,040 最终的底线结论是什么呢 144 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:52,800 咱们进入最后一部分 145 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,610 结论非常清晰 146 00:05:54,610 --> 00:05:57,310 因为这两大超级引擎都在 147 00:05:57,310 --> 00:06:00,408 同时且极其高效的加速运转 148 00:06:00,408 --> 00:06:02,488 分析师们已经全面上调了 149 00:06:02,488 --> 00:06:06,249 对亚马逊2026和2027年在销售额 150 00:06:06,249 --> 00:06:09,670 营业利润以及GAP每股收益上的预期 151 00:06:09,670 --> 00:06:11,769 他们果断给出了超配评级 152 00:06:11,769 --> 00:06:14,829 并且正是基于2027年预期收益的 153 00:06:14,829 --> 00:06:16,199 32倍市盈率 154 00:06:16,199 --> 00:06:17,519 死死地支撑起了 155 00:06:17,519 --> 00:06:21,798 咱们开头提到的那330美元的惊人目标价 156 00:06:21,798 --> 00:06:24,738 最后我想留给大家这样一个思考 157 00:06:24,738 --> 00:06:26,278 面对2027年 158 00:06:26,278 --> 00:06:29,829 预计高达2910亿元美元的资本支出 159 00:06:29,829 --> 00:06:31,889 现在的问题其实早就不是 160 00:06:31,889 --> 00:06:35,000 亚马逊是否在构建人工智能的未来了 161 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:36,160 真正的问题是 162 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,500 在如此碾压级的投资规模和极致的执行力面前 163 00:06:40,500 --> 00:06:43,660 当亚马逊在大刀阔斧地书写下一个10年 164 00:06:43,660 --> 00:06:44,860 游戏规则的时候 165 00:06:44,860 --> 00:06:48,759 还有任何其他竞争对手能掏得起上桌的筹码吗 166 00:06:48,759 --> 00:06:50,579 好了感谢您关注本期解读 167 00:06:50,579 --> 00:06:52,319 希望咱们今天的硬核拆解 168 00:06:52,319 --> 00:06:54,800 能帮您彻底看透这份复杂的报告 169 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,480 咱们下次再见
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