BV1dP93BoExM · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,780 --> 00:00:02,259 你好 2 00:00:02,259 --> 00:00:03,560 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:05,500 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:05,500 --> 00:00:08,000 这是震荡区间的第六节课 5 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,339 也是最后一节课 6 00:00:16,199 --> 00:00:18,199 当市场处于震荡区间时 7 00:00:18,199 --> 00:00:20,259 请记住我的80%法则 8 00:00:20,259 --> 00:00:21,658 不要压住突破 9 00:00:21,658 --> 00:00:25,219 因为80%的突破尝试会失败 10 00:00:26,129 --> 00:00:29,329 然而所有震荡区间最终会成功的突破 11 00:00:29,329 --> 00:00:30,408 然后进入趋势 12 00:00:30,408 --> 00:00:32,819 我会在接下来讲到这一点 13 00:00:33,058 --> 00:00:36,558 每个趋势最终都会演变成震荡区间 14 00:00:36,558 --> 00:00:40,779 所以我会谈到震荡区间的早期信号 15 00:00:45,140 --> 00:00:47,100 当市场处于震荡区间时 16 00:00:47,100 --> 00:00:50,179 它不会花很多时间再上沿或下沿 17 00:00:50,179 --> 00:00:52,320 它通常会反转回到区间的当中 18 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:57,100 1/3大部分交易发生在区间的当中 19 00:00:59,719 --> 00:01:01,920 价格不断被拉回到中间 20 00:01:03,159 --> 00:01:06,560 通常那是一个不好的开仓点位 21 00:01:08,620 --> 00:01:12,040 更好的做法是在下沿压住空头的突破会失败 22 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,250 也就是在下沿买入做多空投 23 00:01:16,250 --> 00:01:18,150 尝试突破小双底 24 00:01:18,150 --> 00:01:20,390 再下沿买入做反转 25 00:01:20,390 --> 00:01:22,390 期待市场至少有足够的涨幅 26 00:01:22,390 --> 00:01:24,430 可以做包头皮交易 27 00:01:25,609 --> 00:01:28,769 交易者应该在上沿寻找卖出做反转的机会 28 00:01:28,769 --> 00:01:29,530 两段上涨 29 00:01:29,530 --> 00:01:30,209 两段上涨 30 00:01:30,209 --> 00:01:30,909 一回调 31 00:01:30,909 --> 00:01:33,049 二注前两节课讲的第二段陷阱 32 00:01:33,049 --> 00:01:34,530 这里有点难办 33 00:01:34,530 --> 00:01:41,489 反转上涨如此的高潮和极端被套牢的多头急于止损离场 34 00:01:41,489 --> 00:01:43,090 在这种情况下 35 00:01:43,090 --> 00:01:46,090 你可以在区间的中间卖出 36 00:01:46,250 --> 00:01:48,250 期待市场还会再低一点 37 00:01:48,250 --> 00:01:51,170 至少有剥头皮的利润 38 00:01:56,340 --> 00:01:59,180 在震荡区间中要意识到的一件重要事情是 39 00:01:59,180 --> 00:02:01,579 包头皮交易可以赚到更多钱 40 00:02:01,579 --> 00:02:03,448 因为如果你不止盈 41 00:02:03,448 --> 00:02:05,909 市场往往会回到你的入场价格 42 00:02:05,909 --> 00:02:07,368 如果你在这里买入 43 00:02:07,368 --> 00:02:09,169 不在这里止盈离场 44 00:02:09,169 --> 00:02:12,788 结果呢市场会一直回到你的入场价 45 00:02:12,788 --> 00:02:13,868 这里也是一样 46 00:02:13,868 --> 00:02:17,250 如果你在这里卖出做空没有及时止盈 47 00:02:17,250 --> 00:02:20,310 市场会回到你的入场价嗯 48 00:02:20,340 --> 00:02:23,560 然后你就必须决定该怎么做 49 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:27,000 主打平离场还是继续持有 50 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:27,800 艰难啊 51 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,219 一些交易者喜欢用限价单卖出 52 00:02:31,340 --> 00:02:33,460 比如在上沿的大阳线收盘卖出 53 00:02:33,460 --> 00:02:36,500 或者在下沿的大阴线收盘买入 54 00:02:37,258 --> 00:02:42,139 同样当市场跌回到区间的中部时止盈 55 00:02:46,860 --> 00:02:49,379 交易者期望突破尝试失败 56 00:02:49,379 --> 00:02:52,180 并且价格会回到区间中部 57 00:02:52,180 --> 00:02:52,979 多头突破 58 00:02:52,979 --> 00:02:53,719 空头突破 59 00:02:53,719 --> 00:02:54,439 多头突破 60 00:02:54,439 --> 00:02:55,219 空头突破 61 00:02:55,219 --> 00:02:55,979 空头突破 62 00:02:56,979 --> 00:02:59,689 因此交易者会反向操作 63 00:02:59,689 --> 00:03:02,750 反向操作的意思是压住突破会失败 64 00:03:02,750 --> 00:03:06,080 所以如果你遇到多头突破反向操作就是卖出做空 65 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,460 如果你遇到空头突破反向操作就是买入做多 66 00:03:09,460 --> 00:03:10,520 震荡区间 67 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:12,310 不断尝试突破 68 00:03:12,310 --> 00:03:13,669 每一个阳线 69 00:03:13,669 --> 00:03:18,909 每一个带上影线的K线都是一次向上突破的尝试 70 00:03:19,030 --> 00:03:25,189 每一个阴线带下影线的K线都是一次向下跌破的尝试 71 00:03:27,180 --> 00:03:28,819 我的80%法则 72 00:03:28,819 --> 00:03:31,979 震荡区间中80%突破的尝试会失败 73 00:03:31,979 --> 00:03:35,560 因此压住突破失败可以赚更多钱 74 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:39,560 而不是压住突破会成功 75 00:03:42,060 --> 00:03:44,360 在上沿附近买入是不好的 76 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,209 看起来不错的阳线小双底 77 00:03:47,209 --> 00:03:49,549 也许这算是一个合理的做多机会 78 00:03:49,549 --> 00:03:50,688 如果你买入了市场 79 00:03:50,688 --> 00:03:52,729 两次尝试上涨失败后反转下跌 80 00:03:52,729 --> 00:03:54,360 你在这里止损离场还好 81 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,340 然而在这里买入做多就很糟糕了 82 00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:57,840 不是说他不可能成功 83 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,520 但最好还是等一下 84 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,800 看看后面的跟随怎么样 85 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:03,039 如果你直接买入 86 00:04:03,039 --> 00:04:04,259 然后看到这种跟随 87 00:04:04,259 --> 00:04:07,560 你就知道肯定会亏钱 88 00:04:09,699 --> 00:04:11,219 在下沿附近卖出 89 00:04:11,219 --> 00:04:12,599 做空也是一样 90 00:04:12,599 --> 00:04:13,819 空头突破 91 00:04:13,819 --> 00:04:15,719 但是下影线很长 92 00:04:15,719 --> 00:04:17,339 糟糕的跟随K线 93 00:04:17,339 --> 00:04:19,879 一些空头会把它看作是突破后的反弹 94 00:04:19,879 --> 00:04:22,918 然后在这根K线的下方卖出 95 00:04:22,918 --> 00:04:24,439 我不会这么做 96 00:04:24,439 --> 00:04:27,338 在震荡区间下沿的雄奇做空 97 00:04:27,338 --> 00:04:29,278 而且做空信号K又不好 98 00:04:29,278 --> 00:04:32,829 因此在他的收盘或在这个阳线下方卖出 99 00:04:32,829 --> 00:04:36,079 是一个亏损的策略啊 100 00:04:40,220 --> 00:04:43,259 你应该做相反的事情 101 00:04:43,259 --> 00:04:44,600 你应该高抛低吸 102 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,040 剥头皮赚快钱 103 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:51,019 英文的缩写就是BLSHS压住突破会失败 104 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:52,920 当你看到空投尝试突破 105 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:54,720 有经验的交易员会在阴线买入 106 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,680 做多压住突破会失败 107 00:04:57,759 --> 00:05:01,379 两段式的反转上涨一回调二 108 00:05:01,379 --> 00:05:02,740 这是高二做多入场点 109 00:05:02,740 --> 00:05:04,220 在下沿附近买入 110 00:05:04,220 --> 00:05:06,860 这是合理的做多机会 111 00:05:07,660 --> 00:05:09,639 反转下跌发生在两段上涨之后 112 00:05:09,639 --> 00:05:10,660 一回调二 113 00:05:10,660 --> 00:05:13,050 两段上涨一回调二 114 00:05:13,050 --> 00:05:14,470 在阳线的收盘卖出做空 115 00:05:14,470 --> 00:05:15,750 如果你不想等K线收盘后 116 00:05:15,750 --> 00:05:16,949 在它的低点下方卖出 117 00:05:16,949 --> 00:05:18,389 或者在它的低点下方卖出 118 00:05:18,389 --> 00:05:19,689 因为它有可能体积很大 119 00:05:19,689 --> 00:05:21,250 入场晚盈亏比就差了 120 00:05:21,250 --> 00:05:23,610 所以很多交易者会直接在阳线的收盘卖出 121 00:05:23,610 --> 00:05:25,709 他们认为多头需要再制造一根阳线 122 00:05:25,709 --> 00:05:26,860 大概率他们无法做到 123 00:05:26,860 --> 00:05:28,939 所以我直接在大阳线的收盘做空 124 00:05:28,939 --> 00:05:31,139 压住下一根K线会是阴线 125 00:05:31,139 --> 00:05:32,600 这里也是一样 126 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,980 你可以在他的收盘做空压住多头 127 00:05:34,980 --> 00:05:36,600 至少需要再制造一根K线 128 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:37,980 而他们大概率无法做到 129 00:05:37,980 --> 00:05:39,740 所以直接在他的收盘卖出 130 00:05:39,740 --> 00:05:43,579 或者你可以在那根阴线下方卖出 131 00:05:46,459 --> 00:05:50,980 所有震荡区间最终都会突破变成趋势 132 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,199 市场处于震荡区间 133 00:05:56,199 --> 00:05:58,759 然后有几根非常大的阳线收盘 134 00:05:58,759 --> 00:06:03,288 远高于过去四十五十六十根K线的高点 135 00:06:05,259 --> 00:06:09,579 任何震荡区间最终会成功的突破 136 00:06:09,579 --> 00:06:12,079 如果你等到强势的突破再入场 137 00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:14,279 会有更高的概率可以赚到钱 138 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,060 我所说的强势突破是什么意思 139 00:06:17,060 --> 00:06:18,899 有一个非常大的突破 140 00:06:18,899 --> 00:06:20,649 K线是好的 141 00:06:20,649 --> 00:06:25,980 再下一根K线或接下来的二三或四根K线有跟随是好的 142 00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:30,699 连续的大阳线增加成功突破的概率 143 00:06:31,249 --> 00:06:34,800 K线顶部没有上影线或上影线非常短 144 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,740 这根K线的收盘价高于前期很多K线的高点 145 00:06:37,740 --> 00:06:42,759 这里这根K线的收盘价高于过去50或60根K线的高点 146 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,540 这里有一个震荡区间突破模式 147 00:06:47,540 --> 00:06:49,519 50%概率会向上突破 148 00:06:49,519 --> 00:06:52,600 50%概率会向下突破 149 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,759 有时震荡区间只是慢慢变弯变成趋势 150 00:06:58,759 --> 00:07:00,980 而没有任何强势的突破 151 00:07:00,980 --> 00:07:04,569 空头希望能够向下跌破高点降低 152 00:07:04,569 --> 00:07:05,970 然后向下反转突破 153 00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:08,449 制造一系列更低的高点和低点 154 00:07:08,449 --> 00:07:11,538 而多头则希望能制造更高的高点 155 00:07:11,538 --> 00:07:12,899 更高的高点 156 00:07:12,899 --> 00:07:14,038 相比他而言 157 00:07:14,038 --> 00:07:15,879 低点也抬高了 158 00:07:15,879 --> 00:07:17,759 多头希望可以继续这样上涨 159 00:07:17,759 --> 00:07:19,199 变成一个宽上涨通道 160 00:07:20,279 --> 00:07:22,100 最终多头获胜了 161 00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:24,160 这里有连续小阳线的突破 162 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:25,819 但仍然在区间内 163 00:07:25,819 --> 00:07:28,199 而这里的突破后面还有跟随 164 00:07:28,199 --> 00:07:29,620 大概率会再涨一些 165 00:07:29,620 --> 00:07:31,680 但这个突破并不怎么惊人 166 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,019 每当价格回调 167 00:07:33,019 --> 00:07:34,639 多头都继续买入 168 00:07:34,639 --> 00:07:35,959 所以回调很小 169 00:07:35,959 --> 00:07:38,339 上涨通道很窄 170 00:07:38,870 --> 00:07:40,750 结果就变成了上涨趋势 171 00:07:40,750 --> 00:07:43,829 但其中没有出现过非常强势的大阳线突破 172 00:07:43,829 --> 00:07:45,290 这里有一点点突破 173 00:07:45,290 --> 00:07:46,430 这里更多一点 174 00:07:46,430 --> 00:07:49,750 但最终仍然形成了上涨趋势 175 00:07:52,740 --> 00:07:54,939 震荡区间高点在降低 176 00:07:54,939 --> 00:07:56,319 低点在抬高 177 00:07:56,319 --> 00:07:58,540 这是突破模式 178 00:08:03,839 --> 00:08:09,800 交易者总是在突破之前尝试发现多空双方力量的不平衡 179 00:08:10,509 --> 00:08:12,470 想要提前判断突破的方向 180 00:08:12,470 --> 00:08:17,750 这样他们可以在突破发生之前就入场做波段交易了 181 00:08:21,259 --> 00:08:24,680 这里有没有任何的迹象表明 182 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,939 更有可能朝哪个方向突破 183 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,100 这里有连续五根阴线 184 00:08:32,100 --> 00:08:34,639 这里连续六根阴线 185 00:08:37,700 --> 00:08:40,700 有降低的低点和高点 186 00:08:41,639 --> 00:08:43,778 再看一看连续的阳线 187 00:08:43,778 --> 00:08:45,639 这里有连续两根阳线 188 00:08:45,639 --> 00:08:46,818 这里有两根 189 00:08:46,818 --> 00:08:48,058 这里有两根 190 00:08:48,058 --> 00:08:50,828 空头拥有更多的连续K线 191 00:08:50,869 --> 00:08:52,548 那就是卖呀 192 00:08:52,548 --> 00:08:54,568 尽管左边是上涨趋势 193 00:08:54,568 --> 00:08:57,809 然后回调回调发展成一个震荡区间 194 00:08:57,809 --> 00:09:00,029 空投开始拥有更多的K线 195 00:09:00,029 --> 00:09:01,828 更多的连续K线 196 00:09:01,828 --> 00:09:03,308 这里还有三根阴线 197 00:09:03,308 --> 00:09:06,679 这是空头比多头更强的早期迹象 198 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:11,789 然后这里这里这里这里更低的低点 199 00:09:11,789 --> 00:09:14,029 尽管这个低点仍然更高 200 00:09:14,029 --> 00:09:16,529 左边仍然是上涨趋势 201 00:09:16,529 --> 00:09:18,529 但有早期迹象表明 202 00:09:18,529 --> 00:09:21,029 空头更可能会胜利 203 00:09:22,879 --> 00:09:25,100 最终空投确实获胜了 204 00:09:25,100 --> 00:09:27,100 从来没有强势的大阴线 205 00:09:27,100 --> 00:09:29,120 但空投确实突破了 206 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,159 并且价格不断的下跌 207 00:09:36,639 --> 00:09:37,679 反转上涨 208 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,440 但多头的力量并不强 209 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,100 这个阳线之后的跟随不好 210 00:09:41,100 --> 00:09:42,870 这个阳线之后的跟随不好 211 00:09:42,870 --> 00:09:49,029 抛物线楔形顶123大概率会开始横盘 212 00:09:50,620 --> 00:09:52,080 最初这是一个回调 213 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,879 但一旦达到12时30根K线 214 00:09:54,879 --> 00:09:56,440 我说它是震荡区间 215 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,200 回调的意思是我假设市场会恢复上涨 216 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,960 但过了十二十或30根K线还没有恢复上涨的时候 217 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,059 我说它是震荡区间 218 00:10:05,059 --> 00:10:07,659 震荡区间意味着多头突破的概率 219 00:10:07,659 --> 00:10:14,730 趋势恢复上涨已经变得和空头突破趋势反转下跌的概率相同 220 00:10:16,330 --> 00:10:19,470 再来观察这些下跌的波段 221 00:10:19,470 --> 00:10:22,809 连续的阴线大部分收在最低 222 00:10:22,809 --> 00:10:24,870 再来和上涨波段进行对比 223 00:10:24,870 --> 00:10:28,350 连续的大阳线在哪里呢 224 00:10:29,049 --> 00:10:31,509 空头开始占据更多的K线 225 00:10:31,509 --> 00:10:34,769 这是空投更强势的迹象 226 00:10:37,259 --> 00:10:39,299 连续两根阳线之前 227 00:10:39,299 --> 00:10:40,820 这个是十字星 228 00:10:41,860 --> 00:10:44,899 之后是三根更强的阴线 229 00:10:47,700 --> 00:10:51,980 下降趋势反弹反弹发展到20根或更多K线 230 00:10:51,980 --> 00:10:53,639 所以变成了震荡区间 231 00:10:53,639 --> 00:10:55,159 50%的概率 232 00:10:55,159 --> 00:10:56,970 多头突破会成功 233 00:10:56,970 --> 00:10:58,730 即趋势会反转 234 00:10:58,730 --> 00:11:00,269 50%的概率 235 00:11:00,269 --> 00:11:01,789 空头突破会成功 236 00:11:01,789 --> 00:11:03,529 即恢复下降趋势 237 00:11:03,529 --> 00:11:06,669 此外每当市场处于窄震荡区间时 238 00:11:06,669 --> 00:11:07,909 它就处于突破模式 239 00:11:07,909 --> 00:11:09,049 50%的概率 240 00:11:09,049 --> 00:11:11,049 第一次突破会失败 241 00:11:12,700 --> 00:11:14,700 这里尝试向下突破 242 00:11:14,700 --> 00:11:17,139 但反转上涨 243 00:11:20,919 --> 00:11:24,159 交易者直到每次突破都有可能被反转 244 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,600 他们预期会朝反方向突破 245 00:11:28,970 --> 00:11:31,070 空投有三根连续的阴线 246 00:11:31,070 --> 00:11:33,850 收盘略低于这个低点 247 00:11:34,090 --> 00:11:35,710 低于前期所有的低点 248 00:11:35,710 --> 00:11:37,129 所以这是一次空头突破 249 00:11:37,129 --> 00:11:39,250 但反转上涨 250 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:43,759 所以每当你看到突破时 251 00:11:43,759 --> 00:11:47,620 要准备好应对反向的突破和反方向的趋势相同的情况 252 00:11:47,620 --> 00:11:49,600 在这里也有可能会发生多头突破 253 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:50,899 但他有失败的可能性 254 00:11:50,899 --> 00:11:52,059 可能会反转下跌 255 00:11:52,059 --> 00:11:53,679 进入下降趋势 256 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,320 然后空投在这里有一个相当好的突破机会 257 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,379 这里有一个相当好的突破机会 258 00:11:58,379 --> 00:12:00,389 但是价格却反转上涨了 259 00:12:00,389 --> 00:12:03,990 多头制造了这根相当好的阳线嗯 260 00:12:04,090 --> 00:12:07,870 然后市场进入上涨趋势 261 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:14,960 看看这里发生了什么 262 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,679 在那次空投的突破尝试之后 263 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,659 这里的九根K线里面只有一根是阴线 264 00:12:21,659 --> 00:12:23,500 空投失去了对市场的掌控 265 00:12:23,500 --> 00:12:25,600 虽然也没有很多强势的阳线 266 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,110 但在九根K线中只有一根是阴线 267 00:12:29,110 --> 00:12:32,070 多头占据了很多K线 268 00:12:34,940 --> 00:12:36,820 大阳线收在最高 269 00:12:36,820 --> 00:12:37,480 事实上 270 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,080 过去40或50根K线中 271 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,460 无论是阴线还是阳线 272 00:12:40,460 --> 00:12:41,519 体积都没有它大 273 00:12:41,519 --> 00:12:44,179 它不仅收盘在震荡区间的上方 274 00:12:44,179 --> 00:12:46,759 而且远高于区间的上沿 275 00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:49,940 这增加了多头突破成功的概率 276 00:12:49,940 --> 00:12:51,559 空头尝试反转 277 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,440 它尝试让它成为一次失败的突破 278 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,519 但这只是突破后的回测 279 00:12:56,519 --> 00:12:58,529 回测了这个突破点 280 00:12:58,529 --> 00:13:01,850 事实上在这个高点和那个低点之间可能有一个小缺口 281 00:13:01,850 --> 00:13:03,850 而且做多信号K线很不错 282 00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:09,429 价格突破了牛起回调之后再次突破 283 00:13:13,879 --> 00:13:17,080 尤其在阳线的高点上方一个tick买入 284 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,440 你可以说它是一个更大的牛企 285 00:13:20,690 --> 00:13:24,090 或者说他是突破牛旗之后的回调 286 00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:28,370 所以他是这个上涨趋势中的一个小牛企 287 00:13:35,639 --> 00:13:36,620 所有的趋势 288 00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:39,279 所有的通道最终都会变成震荡区间 289 00:13:39,279 --> 00:13:44,339 接下来我想讲一讲向震荡区间转变的早期信号 290 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,159 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟K线图 291 00:13:55,919 --> 00:13:57,799 是美盘时段的开始 292 00:13:57,799 --> 00:13:59,559 外汇不存在精确的开盘时间 293 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:03,600 但大约是在太平洋时间的早上05:30分左右 294 00:14:04,980 --> 00:14:08,379 我总是关注前5~10根K线 295 00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:11,340 他们看起来怎么样 296 00:14:11,340 --> 00:14:12,279 有几根阳线 297 00:14:12,279 --> 00:14:13,919 但随后是一根阴线 298 00:14:13,919 --> 00:14:14,700 一根阳线 299 00:14:14,700 --> 00:14:15,720 然后是十字星 300 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:16,820 然后是阴线 301 00:14:16,820 --> 00:14:18,539 然后再上涨 302 00:14:18,539 --> 00:14:21,960 再看看左边很多震荡区间的价格行为 303 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,779 缺乏连续的大阳线 304 00:14:23,779 --> 00:14:25,230 大阴线 305 00:14:25,230 --> 00:14:26,629 这里有两根大阳线 306 00:14:26,629 --> 00:14:28,029 但很快向下反转了 307 00:14:28,029 --> 00:14:29,149 这里有一根大阴线 308 00:14:29,149 --> 00:14:30,529 但随后是十字星 309 00:14:30,529 --> 00:14:32,289 阴线十字星 310 00:14:32,289 --> 00:14:35,049 这看起来像一个即将变成震荡区间的下跌波段 311 00:14:35,049 --> 00:14:38,929 这看起来像一个即将变成震荡区间的上涨波段 312 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,600 早盘有很多震荡区间的价格行为 313 00:14:47,039 --> 00:14:50,320 夜盘的下跌之中也有很多震荡区间的价格行为 314 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:55,849 这意味着这个下降通道可能很快就会变成震荡区间 315 00:14:59,159 --> 00:15:02,220 至少在今天开盘后的1~3小时内 316 00:15:02,220 --> 00:15:06,639 市场很可能会出现震荡区间的价格行为 317 00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:08,240 事实也确实如此 318 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:09,379 强势的大阳线突破 319 00:15:09,379 --> 00:15:11,720 但没有跟随再次尝试突破 320 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,909 但没有跟随早盘的前几根K线 321 00:15:14,909 --> 00:15:19,029 就预示了今天会有很多震荡区间的价格行为 322 00:15:19,029 --> 00:15:22,340 嗯特别是在下降趋势很弱的情况下 323 00:15:22,340 --> 00:15:25,109 这看起来像震荡区间中的一个下跌波段 324 00:15:25,109 --> 00:15:29,188 下降通道若下降趋势很可能会演变为震荡区间 325 00:15:29,188 --> 00:15:31,089 事实也确实如此 326 00:15:31,089 --> 00:15:33,389 当你在这里往回看的时候 327 00:15:33,389 --> 00:15:36,249 你会说这是震荡区间的一部分 328 00:15:36,249 --> 00:15:40,409 尽管此时市场仍然处于下降趋势之中 329 00:15:40,490 --> 00:15:42,409 这确实是下降趋势 330 00:15:42,409 --> 00:15:47,129 但是很可能是即将变成震荡区间的下跌波段 331 00:15:51,799 --> 00:15:54,899 如果把它看作早盘的第一根K线 332 00:15:54,899 --> 00:15:57,299 它是一个十字星 333 00:15:57,299 --> 00:16:01,190 这里所有的K线都有非常明显的影线 334 00:16:01,190 --> 00:16:02,889 K线都重叠在一起 335 00:16:02,889 --> 00:16:04,929 这些K线几乎完全重叠 336 00:16:04,929 --> 00:16:06,129 很多反转 337 00:16:06,129 --> 00:16:08,610 上下上下上下 338 00:16:08,610 --> 00:16:12,110 这些都是震荡区间的价格行为 339 00:16:12,110 --> 00:16:17,629 这增加了市场在前几个小时会很多震荡的概率 340 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:23,000 而且增加了一整天都会有很多震荡的概率 341 00:16:26,379 --> 00:16:29,320 阴线阳线阳线 342 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:30,340 然后是阴线 343 00:16:30,340 --> 00:16:33,620 没有好的跟随很多反转 344 00:16:36,179 --> 00:16:39,340 在前一两个小时内有至少五次反转 345 00:16:39,340 --> 00:16:40,440 很多阳线 346 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,318 很多阴线来回的反转 347 00:16:43,318 --> 00:16:46,820 这是震荡区间的价格行为啊 348 00:16:50,279 --> 00:16:52,419 这里我没有显示均线ma20 349 00:16:52,419 --> 00:16:54,779 因为均线肯定是平的 350 00:16:54,779 --> 00:16:58,639 这是市场没有趋势的另一个信号 351 00:17:00,539 --> 00:17:02,440 开盘没有跳空缺口 352 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,079 外汇市场通常没有跳空缺口 353 00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:08,638 但期货和股票经常有跳空缺口 354 00:17:08,638 --> 00:17:13,199 没有跳空缺口和这种震荡区间的价格行为 355 00:17:13,199 --> 00:17:17,500 都增加了今天会震荡的概率嗯 356 00:17:24,140 --> 00:17:25,359 这么多的反转 357 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,059 每次突破都没有跟随 358 00:17:27,059 --> 00:17:29,380 用现价卖单在K线上方卖出 359 00:17:29,380 --> 00:17:31,680 做空压住多头突破会失败 360 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,079 更容易赚钱 361 00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:34,549 在K线下方买入 362 00:17:34,549 --> 00:17:36,109 压住空头突破会失败 363 00:17:36,109 --> 00:17:38,390 比通过突破单入场更容易赚钱 364 00:17:38,390 --> 00:17:41,630 突破单比限价单成功率跌 365 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,138 这是震荡区间日的另一个信号 366 00:17:45,138 --> 00:17:47,298 我称之为限价单市场 367 00:17:47,298 --> 00:17:51,098 当限价单比通过突破单更容易赚钱时 368 00:17:51,098 --> 00:17:54,459 市场大概率就处于震荡区间之中 369 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,179 前一个交易时段是震荡区间 370 00:17:59,179 --> 00:18:01,798 或者说它有很多震荡区间的价格行为 371 00:18:01,798 --> 00:18:03,699 这一部分是下降趋势 372 00:18:03,699 --> 00:18:06,019 但主要是震荡的 373 00:18:06,019 --> 00:18:08,119 它更像一个宽的下降通道 374 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,440 有很多大反弹 375 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,259 几乎就是一个略微向下倾斜的震荡区间 376 00:18:16,279 --> 00:18:19,119 如果你看着K线图并感到困惑 377 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,259 不明白为什么会有这么多反转 378 00:18:21,259 --> 00:18:22,579 或者你感到焦虑 379 00:18:22,579 --> 00:18:24,680 这就是你的内置雷达在提醒你 380 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,440 市场很可能处于一个震荡区间 381 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:28,440 所以保持冷静 382 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,680 把它当做一个震荡区间来交易就好了 383 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,599 不要像在趋势里那样追涨杀跌 384 00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:34,019 这不是一个趋势 385 00:18:34,019 --> 00:18:36,920 而且不会成为一个趋势 386 00:18:42,819 --> 00:18:45,380 震荡区间日通常会不断反转 387 00:18:45,380 --> 00:18:48,240 反复测试区间当中的1/3 388 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:49,519 下午的时候 389 00:18:49,519 --> 00:18:52,680 如果价格尝试突破开盘价 390 00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:55,319 它通常会回测开盘价 391 00:18:55,319 --> 00:18:57,259 收盘价往往在开盘价的附近 392 00:18:57,259 --> 00:18:59,160 注即日K线是十字星 393 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,589 如果开盘价在当天区间当中的1/3 394 00:19:02,660 --> 00:19:05,460 收盘价往往会回到开盘价的附近 395 00:19:05,460 --> 00:19:09,819 偶尔市场会在尾盘突然变成上涨趋势或下降趋势 396 00:19:09,819 --> 00:19:10,920 但大多数时候 397 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,359 当价格在开盘价上下来回反转 398 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,029 而开盘价又在区间当中的1/3时 399 00:19:17,029 --> 00:19:19,869 最后也会在当中的1/3区域收盘 400 00:19:19,869 --> 00:19:21,069 而在日线图上 401 00:19:21,069 --> 00:19:24,190 K线最终会成为一根十字星 402 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,259 尝试在尾盘突破形成趋势 403 00:19:34,259 --> 00:19:36,299 但突破并不怎么强势 404 00:19:36,299 --> 00:19:38,140 大概率会跌回来 405 00:19:38,140 --> 00:19:39,970 回测开盘价 406 00:19:43,319 --> 00:19:45,980 这个时段从窄震荡区间开始 407 00:19:45,980 --> 00:19:47,759 一整天的振幅很窄 408 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,049 最后在开盘价附近收盘 409 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,559 在如何交易尾盘的视频课中 410 00:19:58,559 --> 00:20:03,079 注48H至K我讲解了更多尾盘的价格行为 411 00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:07,359 这节课的开始我讲了 412 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,839 在震荡区间中不要压住突破成功 413 00:20:09,839 --> 00:20:11,180 如果一定要做交易的话 414 00:20:11,180 --> 00:20:12,380 压住突破会失败 415 00:20:12,380 --> 00:20:13,880 寻找反转的交易机会 416 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:15,140 再上沿卖出做空 417 00:20:15,140 --> 00:20:16,140 再下沿买入 418 00:20:16,140 --> 00:20:18,940 做多压住突破会失败 419 00:20:19,249 --> 00:20:22,229 所有震荡区间最终都会突破 420 00:20:22,229 --> 00:20:23,509 形成趋势 421 00:20:23,509 --> 00:20:26,089 有时会提前出现关于突破方向的信号 422 00:20:26,089 --> 00:20:29,859 你应该在震荡区间形成时观察这些迹象 423 00:20:29,859 --> 00:20:34,019 最后在外汇市场的每个交易时段的早盘 424 00:20:34,019 --> 00:20:36,920 有一些迹象会告诉你 425 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,240 当天很可能会是一个震荡区间日 426 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,480 如果在当天的前几根K线上 427 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,059 你看到很多反转 428 00:20:43,059 --> 00:20:44,700 很多重叠的K线 429 00:20:44,700 --> 00:20:46,279 非常明显的引线 430 00:20:46,279 --> 00:20:47,200 这通常告诉你 431 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,099 今天大部分时间将处于震荡区间 432 00:20:51,779 --> 00:20:53,319 我是二布鲁克斯 433 00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:55,359 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程 434 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,059 震荡区间的六节课 435 00:20:57,059 --> 00:20:59,539 到这里就全部讲完了
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