BV1dNEX6sEVq · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,040 我已经提前申购了1万股space x预售股 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:08,320 估计我们是全网唯一一家赶space x上市前 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:11,359 坦然的公布我们仓位的财经媒体 4 00:00:11,359 --> 00:00:14,710 我在我的swab券商提交了COTP 5 00:00:14,710 --> 00:00:16,289 流程并不复杂 6 00:00:16,289 --> 00:00:18,589 在我们美股投资网微信的公众号 7 00:00:18,589 --> 00:00:21,689 文章有分享具体步骤和申购条件 8 00:00:21,689 --> 00:00:23,899 在这里我不重复说明了 9 00:00:23,899 --> 00:00:24,859 你可能会问 10 00:00:24,859 --> 00:00:27,500 我不担心space ex估值过高吗 11 00:00:27,500 --> 00:00:30,100 不担心上市后的老股东套现 12 00:00:30,100 --> 00:00:32,990 股价跌破发行价最后亏钱吗 13 00:00:32,990 --> 00:00:35,630 坦白说我并不担心这些问题 14 00:00:35,630 --> 00:00:37,869 视频后面会解释为什么 15 00:00:37,869 --> 00:00:40,670 而我买space x并不是为了赚快钱 16 00:00:40,670 --> 00:00:42,759 甚至不是为了赚多少钱 17 00:00:42,759 --> 00:00:46,340 我买space ex是因为我认同马斯克的梦想 18 00:00:46,340 --> 00:00:48,159 认同那种改变世界 19 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,439 探索浩瀚宇宙的精神 20 00:00:50,439 --> 00:00:52,039 我愿意用自己的方式 21 00:00:52,039 --> 00:00:55,299 为这个梦想贡献一份微不足道的力量 22 00:00:55,299 --> 00:00:58,119 如果未来space x上市后真的大跌 23 00:00:58,119 --> 00:00:59,259 我不会恐慌 24 00:00:59,259 --> 00:01:01,469 反而会继续考虑加仓 25 00:01:01,469 --> 00:01:04,170 降低持仓成本并长期持有 26 00:01:04,170 --> 00:01:06,450 因为我投资的不仅仅是一家公司 27 00:01:06,450 --> 00:01:07,909 更是一种信念 28 00:01:07,909 --> 00:01:09,689 我希望未来某一天 29 00:01:09,689 --> 00:01:13,090 当我和孩子一起抬头仰望星空的时候 30 00:01:13,090 --> 00:01:14,390 会想起这个时代 31 00:01:14,390 --> 00:01:15,819 曾经有这样一个人 32 00:01:15,819 --> 00:01:18,099 他面对无数质疑和失败 33 00:01:18,099 --> 00:01:20,909 依然坚定不移地朝着目标前进 34 00:01:20,909 --> 00:01:23,290 它不是满足于改变一个行业 35 00:01:23,290 --> 00:01:27,039 而是试图推动整个人类文明向前迈进一步 36 00:01:27,039 --> 00:01:30,019 从电动车到可重复使用火箭 37 00:01:30,019 --> 00:01:32,500 从卫星互联网到火星计划 38 00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:34,640 很多曾经被认为不可能的事情 39 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,829 正在一步步变成现实 40 00:01:36,829 --> 00:01:38,329 作为屏幕前的你 41 00:01:38,329 --> 00:01:40,870 在决定投资space x之前 42 00:01:40,870 --> 00:01:44,519 必须充分了解它背后潜在的机遇与风险 43 00:01:44,519 --> 00:01:48,640 马斯克究竟准备如何应对华尔街的压力 44 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,728 上市后股东可能带来的抛售风险 45 00:01:51,728 --> 00:01:54,049 以及马斯克究竟为这家公司 46 00:01:54,049 --> 00:01:56,359 提前筑起了哪些护城河 47 00:01:56,359 --> 00:01:58,840 又留下了哪些无法回避的隐患 48 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:00,540 隐藏在招股书深处 49 00:02:00,540 --> 00:02:03,129 今天这期视频我为你一一拆解 50 00:02:03,129 --> 00:02:05,290 如此体量的超级IPO 51 00:02:05,290 --> 00:02:08,049 在上市初期最怕两件事 52 00:02:08,049 --> 00:02:10,248 一是机构嫌盘子太大 53 00:02:10,248 --> 00:02:11,508 接不动导致破发 54 00:02:11,508 --> 00:02:15,550 二是市场质疑大股东套现引发信息崩塌 55 00:02:15,550 --> 00:02:18,210 马斯克比谁都清楚这两把刀 56 00:02:18,210 --> 00:02:21,719 所以在上市前悄悄布下了四道防线 57 00:02:21,719 --> 00:02:26,360 第一道防线极小流通盘加闪电纳入指数 58 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,599 锁定被动大资金 59 00:02:28,599 --> 00:02:32,169 space x干了一件绝大多数公司做不到的事 60 00:02:32,169 --> 00:02:35,810 他正好赶上了纳斯达克100指数的快速通道 61 00:02:35,810 --> 00:02:36,349 规则 62 00:02:36,349 --> 00:02:38,770 以前新股想进纳指100 63 00:02:38,770 --> 00:02:41,319 先老老实实等三个月观察期 64 00:02:41,319 --> 00:02:45,939 但SPACEX只要上市15个交易日就能被正式纳入 65 00:02:45,939 --> 00:02:47,639 更绝的是筹码结构 66 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,900 SPACEX这次计划募资约750亿美元 67 00:02:50,900 --> 00:02:53,580 但上市初期真正拿出来卖的股份 68 00:02:53,580 --> 00:02:55,719 只有4%到5% 69 00:02:55,719 --> 00:02:59,979 这两条规则叠加效果就是上市头两周 70 00:02:59,979 --> 00:03:02,310 市场上能买到的股票很少 71 00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:04,750 在马斯克的巨大光环下 72 00:03:04,750 --> 00:03:05,669 资金一抢 73 00:03:05,669 --> 00:03:08,500 股价很容易被快速推高 74 00:03:08,500 --> 00:03:10,560 到了第15个交易日 75 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,539 这时全球追踪该指数超过12万亿美元 76 00:03:14,539 --> 00:03:17,990 被动基金养老金ETF按照规则 77 00:03:17,990 --> 00:03:22,039 必须在指定时间买入SPACEX股票来完成配置 78 00:03:22,039 --> 00:03:25,080 说白了有一大笔钱不是自己想买 79 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:26,960 而是被规则逼着买 80 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,159 不管股价已经被炒到多高 81 00:03:29,159 --> 00:03:30,979 到点就得进场 82 00:03:30,979 --> 00:03:33,800 这笔钱给股价提供了强力托底 83 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,000 第二道防线 84 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:36,219 高比例配售 85 00:03:36,219 --> 00:03:38,610 散户维持热度和溢价 86 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:41,710 传统的大型军工或航天IPO 87 00:03:41,710 --> 00:03:45,330 发行份额基本被华尔街投行和主权基金包了 88 00:03:45,330 --> 00:03:47,370 但马斯克这次不一样 89 00:03:47,370 --> 00:03:51,139 SPACEX明确拿出了30%的发行份额 90 00:03:51,139 --> 00:03:53,340 差不多225亿美元 91 00:03:53,340 --> 00:03:55,639 直接配售给普通散户 92 00:03:55,639 --> 00:03:56,180 富达 93 00:03:56,180 --> 00:03:59,939 甚至把打新的资产门槛降到了最低2000美元 94 00:03:59,939 --> 00:04:01,979 让更多人能参与进来 95 00:04:01,979 --> 00:04:03,449 为什么要这么做呢 96 00:04:03,449 --> 00:04:06,289 因为机构资金决定的是股价的下限 97 00:04:06,289 --> 00:04:07,479 他们负责托底 98 00:04:07,479 --> 00:04:08,759 而散户的热情 99 00:04:08,759 --> 00:04:10,520 高换手率和讨论度 100 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,909 往往能把股价的上限推得更高 101 00:04:12,909 --> 00:04:16,350 将近1/3的筹码直接分散在散户手里 102 00:04:16,350 --> 00:04:20,750 能让这只超级巨无霸保持极高的交易活跃度 103 00:04:21,029 --> 00:04:23,110 同时为了彻底平息市场 104 00:04:23,110 --> 00:04:25,269 对大股东借机套现的担心 105 00:04:25,269 --> 00:04:27,310 SPACEX这一次在招股书里 106 00:04:27,310 --> 00:04:30,288 采用了全新股发行的财务结构 107 00:04:30,288 --> 00:04:31,468 什么意思呢 108 00:04:31,468 --> 00:04:34,848 这意味着这次发行的5.56亿股 109 00:04:34,848 --> 00:04:37,908 全部都是公司自己新印出来的股票 110 00:04:37,908 --> 00:04:41,110 而不是老股东转让手里的存量股 111 00:04:41,110 --> 00:04:42,350 在这个结构下 112 00:04:42,350 --> 00:04:43,730 所有的早期机构 113 00:04:43,730 --> 00:04:47,589 现有大股东在IPO当天不能出售任何一股 114 00:04:47,589 --> 00:04:49,279 他们现有的股份 115 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,180 最终募集上来的750亿美元 116 00:04:52,180 --> 00:04:54,720 一分钱都不会流入私人腰包 117 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,639 全额100%进入公司账户 118 00:04:57,639 --> 00:05:00,019 用来搞新建研发和星链 119 00:05:00,019 --> 00:05:01,459 全球扩张 120 00:05:01,459 --> 00:05:02,560 与此同时 121 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,079 马斯克本人和部分重要的现有大股东 122 00:05:05,079 --> 00:05:09,379 还联合签署了长达366天的锁仓协议 123 00:05:09,379 --> 00:05:11,139 马斯克明确承诺 124 00:05:11,139 --> 00:05:13,860 上市后整整一年零一天内 125 00:05:13,860 --> 00:05:15,949 自己绝对一股不卖 126 00:05:15,949 --> 00:05:20,509 这套从全新股发行到一整年锁仓的连环组合拳 127 00:05:20,509 --> 00:05:23,910 确实给市场吃下了一颗强有力的定心丸 128 00:05:23,910 --> 00:05:25,158 第三道防线 129 00:05:25,158 --> 00:05:29,009 太空AI数据中心打开估值天花板 130 00:05:29,009 --> 00:05:32,670 如果SPACEX只讲火箭发射和星链宽带 131 00:05:32,670 --> 00:05:35,538 资本市场是很难给出如此高的溢价 132 00:05:35,538 --> 00:05:37,418 为了打开估值想象空间 133 00:05:37,418 --> 00:05:40,819 马斯克在招股书里抛出了一个极具吸引力的 134 00:05:40,819 --> 00:05:42,449 宏大叙事空间 135 00:05:42,449 --> 00:05:44,639 AI数据中心招股书显示 136 00:05:44,639 --> 00:05:47,199 space x将这一部分潜在市场的规模 137 00:05:47,199 --> 00:05:50,060 锚定在28.5万亿美元 138 00:05:50,060 --> 00:05:53,459 其中AI领域占26.5万亿美元 139 00:05:53,459 --> 00:05:55,120 马斯克的逻辑是这样的 140 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,079 地面上的算力中心现在遇到两个大问题 141 00:05:58,079 --> 00:05:59,060 电不够用 142 00:05:59,060 --> 00:06:00,339 土地也姓张 143 00:06:00,339 --> 00:06:02,459 而太空里有的是太阳能 144 00:06:02,459 --> 00:06:04,220 不用排队等电网 145 00:06:04,220 --> 00:06:08,500 space x计划未来向太空部署高达100几瓦的算力 146 00:06:08,500 --> 00:06:11,060 从理论上解决地面的能源瓶颈 147 00:06:11,060 --> 00:06:11,800 说实话 148 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,000 这个故事在短期内听起来有点像科幻 149 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,540 但资本市场有一个特点 150 00:06:16,540 --> 00:06:19,560 他愿意为那种有可能改变人类基础设施的 151 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:20,860 长期蓄势买单 152 00:06:20,860 --> 00:06:24,079 尤其现在AI是全世界最热的方向 153 00:06:24,079 --> 00:06:28,370 SPACEX把这两个概念一结合就完成一次定位升级 154 00:06:28,370 --> 00:06:30,089 从一家航天硬件公司 155 00:06:30,089 --> 00:06:34,209 变成了全球唯一的太空AI基础设施玩家 156 00:06:34,209 --> 00:06:35,850 这也是为什么1.7 157 00:06:35,850 --> 00:06:38,439 5万亿估值能战出的一个重要理由 158 00:06:38,439 --> 00:06:41,220 我明知道这个故事短期内很难实现 159 00:06:41,220 --> 00:06:42,660 但我依然愿意买入 160 00:06:42,660 --> 00:06:44,589 是因为在美股市场上 161 00:06:44,589 --> 00:06:46,970 谁能讲出一个被市场接受的未来 162 00:06:46,970 --> 00:06:49,050 谁就能获得更高的估值溢价 163 00:06:49,050 --> 00:06:50,069 第四道防线 164 00:06:50,069 --> 00:06:53,829 用制度的绝对集中捍卫战略稳定性 165 00:06:53,829 --> 00:06:56,529 在解决了筹码与资金的流向后 166 00:06:56,529 --> 00:06:59,230 马斯克在章程中设立的治理结构 167 00:06:59,230 --> 00:07:02,269 则构筑了最后一道合规防线 168 00:07:02,269 --> 00:07:04,870 SPACEX股权结构设计的很清楚 169 00:07:04,870 --> 00:07:07,050 马斯克持有的CASB股票 170 00:07:07,050 --> 00:07:10,379 拥有超过82.4%的投票权 171 00:07:10,379 --> 00:07:11,199 也就是说 172 00:07:11,199 --> 00:07:13,240 不管公众股东怎么想 173 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,519 所有重大决策最终都是马斯克一个人说了算 174 00:07:16,519 --> 00:07:18,839 但有超级投票权还不够 175 00:07:18,839 --> 00:07:22,899 SPACEX还在公司章程里加了两条值得注意的条款 176 00:07:22,899 --> 00:07:25,389 第一条强制仲裁 177 00:07:25,389 --> 00:07:29,668 如果散户因为亏损或者合规问题想告space x 178 00:07:29,668 --> 00:07:32,449 不能像普通股票那样发起集体诉讼 179 00:07:32,449 --> 00:07:36,678 而是必须走非公开不可上诉的私人仲裁程序 180 00:07:36,678 --> 00:07:37,718 换句话说 181 00:07:37,718 --> 00:07:39,788 你想闹也闹不到哪儿去 182 00:07:39,788 --> 00:07:42,449 第二条高门槛派生诉讼 183 00:07:42,449 --> 00:07:45,009 如果你想对董事会提起诉讼 184 00:07:45,009 --> 00:07:47,569 你得先持有公司的3%股份 185 00:07:47,569 --> 00:07:49,810 按1.75万亿的估值算 186 00:07:49,810 --> 00:07:52,949 3%就是525亿美元 187 00:07:52,949 --> 00:07:56,189 全美国没有任何一家公共退休基金 188 00:07:56,189 --> 00:07:58,439 能在单只股票上砸这么多钱 189 00:07:58,439 --> 00:08:01,139 这条规定基本上等于把小股通 190 00:08:01,139 --> 00:08:04,529 通过法律手段制衡董事会的路堵死了 191 00:08:04,529 --> 00:08:06,009 在传统机构里 192 00:08:06,009 --> 00:08:08,250 这种治理结构有点不讲武德 193 00:08:08,250 --> 00:08:10,689 但对于真正相信马斯克的人来说 194 00:08:10,689 --> 00:08:13,389 这恰恰是SPACEX最大的优势 195 00:08:13,389 --> 00:08:14,189 为什么 196 00:08:14,189 --> 00:08:16,870 因为马斯克的终极目标是火星核心 197 00:08:16,870 --> 00:08:18,829 建这些东西投入大 198 00:08:18,829 --> 00:08:19,310 周期长 199 00:08:19,310 --> 00:08:20,209 风险高 200 00:08:20,209 --> 00:08:21,870 短期内看不到回报 201 00:08:21,870 --> 00:08:24,290 如果按照普通上市公司玩法 202 00:08:24,290 --> 00:08:27,220 管理层天天被季度财报绑架 203 00:08:27,220 --> 00:08:30,189 被华尔街做空机构用各种诉讼骚扰 204 00:08:30,189 --> 00:08:32,230 哪还有心思搞星辰大海 205 00:08:32,230 --> 00:08:36,019 所以这两条法律条款本质上是一堵防火墙 206 00:08:36,019 --> 00:08:37,460 他确跑space x 207 00:08:37,460 --> 00:08:40,419 不会被短期的股价波动和投机者干扰 208 00:08:40,419 --> 00:08:42,779 能把所有资金和精力全部砸在 209 00:08:42,779 --> 00:08:44,379 新建和火星探索上 210 00:08:44,379 --> 00:08:47,580 所以买入space x本质上不是买一家普通公司 211 00:08:47,580 --> 00:08:50,669 而是选择把信任交给马斯克本人 212 00:08:50,669 --> 00:08:53,750 而这套制度就是确保它不会被任何人打扰 213 00:08:53,750 --> 00:08:56,549 一门心思往前冲的最强保障 214 00:08:56,549 --> 00:08:58,830 总结一下马斯克布下的四道防线 215 00:08:58,830 --> 00:09:02,299 用一句话概括就是用指数规则锁定大资金 216 00:09:02,299 --> 00:09:04,960 用高额散户配售维持议价 217 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,980 用太空AI讲好故事 218 00:09:06,980 --> 00:09:09,629 用绝对集权捍卫战略 219 00:09:09,909 --> 00:09:11,909 如果你觉得本视频对你有帮助 220 00:09:11,909 --> 00:09:13,289 先点赞再收藏 221 00:09:13,289 --> 00:09:14,409 关键时刻能帮忙 222 00:09:14,409 --> 00:09:17,619 美国热线6263783637 223 00:09:17,938 --> 00:09:21,940 现在我们来讲风险第一呢是价格与抛压结构 224 00:09:21,940 --> 00:09:23,419 到了第15个交易日 225 00:09:23,419 --> 00:09:27,029 指数基金必须雷打不动等进场买入space x 226 00:09:27,029 --> 00:09:29,330 但咱们必须保持绝对的清醒 227 00:09:29,330 --> 00:09:31,169 这笔被动资金托底的 228 00:09:31,169 --> 00:09:33,850 可不是135美元的初始发行价 229 00:09:33,850 --> 00:09:36,990 而是前两周已经被市场情绪和散户热度 230 00:09:36,990 --> 00:09:39,889 彻底炒高之后的高位价格 231 00:09:40,259 --> 00:09:43,779 同时这个由规则制造的巨额流动性窗口 232 00:09:43,779 --> 00:09:46,620 也恰好为早期入局的风投提供了一个 233 00:09:46,620 --> 00:09:49,350 在极高位顺利退出的机会 234 00:09:49,350 --> 00:09:52,029 但更隐蔽也更沉重的盘面压力 235 00:09:52,029 --> 00:09:53,929 其实来自他的解禁节奏 236 00:09:53,929 --> 00:09:57,019 很多人一看到马斯克承诺锁仓366天 237 00:09:57,019 --> 00:09:59,120 就以为这一年内市场很安全 238 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,259 完全没有抛压 239 00:10:00,259 --> 00:10:03,210 但如果你仔细看招股书的底层条款 240 00:10:03,210 --> 00:10:05,750 除了马斯克等少数核心大股东 241 00:10:05,750 --> 00:10:09,669 占据SPACEX整体价值接近一半的其余股份 242 00:10:09,669 --> 00:10:12,879 其结金速度比任何人的想象都要快 243 00:10:12,879 --> 00:10:16,240 华尔街这次帮ce space x设计了一套非常罕见的 244 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,419 阶梯式绩效解禁机制 245 00:10:18,419 --> 00:10:19,460 第一个坎 246 00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:21,139 首季财报公布后 247 00:10:21,139 --> 00:10:23,500 大概也就是今年的8月或者是9月 248 00:10:23,500 --> 00:10:25,100 内部人士和早期股东 249 00:10:25,100 --> 00:10:27,539 就可以立刻合法减去他们手里 250 00:10:27,539 --> 00:10:28,649 20%的股票 251 00:10:28,649 --> 00:10:30,409 第二个坎对赌触发 252 00:10:30,409 --> 00:10:33,330 如果到时候股价比135美元的发行价 253 00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:35,299 上涨30%或者更多 254 00:10:35,299 --> 00:10:37,559 系统就会立刻提前解锁 255 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,059 允许他们再多卖出10% 256 00:10:40,059 --> 00:10:42,039 后面的滚动释放 257 00:10:42,039 --> 00:10:45,059 剩下的股份还会按照固定日期 258 00:10:45,059 --> 00:10:46,500 和第二份财报公布之后 259 00:10:46,500 --> 00:10:49,210 像挤牙膏一样一波一波释放 260 00:10:49,210 --> 00:10:50,509 这套机制的本质 261 00:10:50,509 --> 00:10:53,919 根本不是像传统IPO那样死死锁住六个月不让动 262 00:10:53,919 --> 00:10:56,179 而是通过财报节点加股价表现 263 00:10:56,179 --> 00:10:59,909 在及早期一眨一眨的精准放水减压 264 00:10:59,909 --> 00:11:01,529 这种设计呢确实很聪明 265 00:11:01,529 --> 00:11:05,519 能防止半年锁定期那天股价被一次性砸崩 266 00:11:05,519 --> 00:11:08,259 但他对咱们散户的副作用也很直接 267 00:11:08,259 --> 00:11:12,080 他让这只巨无霸在上市前两周被动冲高后 268 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,620 很快就将在89月份 269 00:11:14,620 --> 00:11:17,720 迎来第一波内部的大笔套现潮 270 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:18,960 咱们一定要知道 271 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,620 SPACEX在2025年末轮私募融资的时候 272 00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:24,490 估值才2800亿美元 273 00:11:24,490 --> 00:11:27,539 早期投资的持仓成本可能只有20多美元 274 00:11:27,539 --> 00:11:29,759 手里握着高达5~6倍的浮盈 275 00:11:29,759 --> 00:11:32,440 他们选择在第一份财报后合规套现 276 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,240 落袋为安是绝对正常的商业行为 277 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,539 第二呢是比特币持仓对财报的扰动 278 00:11:38,539 --> 00:11:39,899 招股书显示 279 00:11:39,899 --> 00:11:43,919 SPACEX账上持有1万8712枚比特币 280 00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:45,440 价值约十几亿美元 281 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:46,820 比特币价格的波动 282 00:11:46,820 --> 00:11:49,980 会直接反映在公司的季度净利润里 283 00:11:49,980 --> 00:11:54,190 这意味着有时候财报显示的盈利暴增或巨亏 284 00:11:54,190 --> 00:11:56,549 可能只是比特币涨跌造成的 285 00:11:56,549 --> 00:11:58,090 跟航天主业没关系 286 00:11:58,090 --> 00:12:01,700 我们看财报时要分清哪些是真实业务赚的钱 287 00:12:01,700 --> 00:12:04,399 哪些是数字资产带来的账面波动 288 00:12:04,399 --> 00:12:06,220 第三呢是27% 289 00:12:06,220 --> 00:12:08,740 上市募资要优先还债 290 00:12:08,740 --> 00:12:10,320 2026年2月 291 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,568 space x与XAI完成合并 292 00:12:12,568 --> 00:12:14,788 这一步呢就把AI概念装进来了 293 00:12:14,788 --> 00:12:20,089 但同时也把XAI和X原有的债务一并带进了 294 00:12:20,089 --> 00:12:21,480 space x报表 295 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,340 为了降低利息成本 296 00:12:23,340 --> 00:12:27,409 SPACEX在上市前借了一笔200亿美元的过桥贷款 297 00:12:27,409 --> 00:12:28,769 提前还掉了X 298 00:12:28,769 --> 00:12:33,490 AI和X之前发行的175亿美元高息债券 299 00:12:33,490 --> 00:12:35,909 过桥贷款利率约4.58% 300 00:12:35,909 --> 00:12:39,370 这个操作呢让年利息支出从约18亿美元 301 00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:40,950 降到了约9亿美元 302 00:12:40,950 --> 00:12:42,490 但关键条款是 303 00:12:42,490 --> 00:12:46,360 过桥贷款要求SPACEX在上市后六个月内 304 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,419 必须用IPO募集的资金优先偿还这200亿美元 305 00:12:50,419 --> 00:12:52,639 按750亿美元募资算 306 00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:55,799 约27%的钱还没进公司账户 307 00:12:55,799 --> 00:12:58,589 就要直接划给银行还债 308 00:12:58,589 --> 00:13:02,208 真正用来搞新建和星链的资金没那么多 309 00:13:02,208 --> 00:13:05,570 第四呢是星链的现金流正在被AIU对冲 310 00:13:05,570 --> 00:13:08,610 2025年新建营收是114亿美元 311 00:13:08,610 --> 00:13:11,230 占SPACEX总营收的61% 312 00:13:11,230 --> 00:13:13,250 利润率高达54% 313 00:13:13,250 --> 00:13:16,328 这是公司目前唯一稳定赚钱的业务 314 00:13:16,328 --> 00:13:17,269 但另一边 315 00:13:17,269 --> 00:13:21,589 XAI和AI业务在2025年亏损约60亿美元 316 00:13:21,589 --> 00:13:24,320 2026年一季度又亏了25亿美元 317 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,639 星链赚的钱很大一部分被AI部门花掉了 318 00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:28,740 更值得注意的是 319 00:13:28,740 --> 00:13:31,740 星链的单用户月均收入在持续下降 320 00:13:31,740 --> 00:13:33,500 2023年99美元 321 00:13:33,500 --> 00:13:35,639 2024年91美元 322 00:13:35,639 --> 00:13:37,320 2025年80亿美元 323 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,629 2026年一季度66美元 324 00:13:39,629 --> 00:13:40,568 为什么叫 325 00:13:40,568 --> 00:13:44,269 因为欧美农村的高收入市场快填满了 326 00:13:44,269 --> 00:13:47,448 接下来要去低收入国家和大众市场抢用户 327 00:13:47,448 --> 00:13:49,200 只能靠降价送设备 328 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:50,500 用户数还会涨 329 00:13:50,500 --> 00:13:52,679 但每用户赚的钱会越来越少 330 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:54,578 这里不得不说一个小插曲 331 00:13:54,578 --> 00:13:58,198 space x将算力对外出租给谷歌和ANTHROPIC 332 00:13:58,198 --> 00:14:00,639 折射出XAI自身的技术困境 333 00:14:00,639 --> 00:14:01,919 据消息人士称 334 00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:06,399 XAI在class1数据中心训练GROCK模型时 335 00:14:06,399 --> 00:14:08,100 混杂部署了H100 336 00:14:08,100 --> 00:14:11,399 H200及GB200等多种架构的GPU 337 00:14:11,399 --> 00:14:14,409 导致训练GROCK难以有效推进 338 00:14:14,409 --> 00:14:18,330 XAI不得不将训练模型任务迁移至classes to 339 00:14:18,330 --> 00:14:19,369 数据中心 340 00:14:19,369 --> 00:14:21,869 这是这一设计规划上的失误 341 00:14:21,869 --> 00:14:25,009 为space x的商业化布局提供了契机 342 00:14:25,009 --> 00:14:27,330 classes1被闲置下来 343 00:14:27,330 --> 00:14:29,828 可以出租给科技巨头对外变现 344 00:14:29,828 --> 00:14:31,948 这也为space x ipo 345 00:14:31,948 --> 00:14:35,009 将算力租赁收入作为核心增长亮点 346 00:14:35,009 --> 00:14:38,970 谷歌将从今年10月起至2029年6月 347 00:14:38,970 --> 00:14:41,970 每月向space x支付9.2亿美元 348 00:14:41,970 --> 00:14:47,429 以获取约11万块英伟达GPU及相关算力资源 349 00:14:47,429 --> 00:14:50,070 ATHROPIC已于5月宣布 350 00:14:50,070 --> 00:14:53,068 以每月12.5亿美元的价格 351 00:14:53,068 --> 00:14:56,408 租用space x数据中心的大部分算力 352 00:14:56,408 --> 00:14:58,419 两笔协议合并计算 353 00:14:58,419 --> 00:15:01,279 SPACEX每月可从算力租赁业务中 354 00:15:01,279 --> 00:15:04,080 获得约21.7亿美元收入 355 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,659 年化规模约260亿美元 356 00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:09,779 若两份合同均执行至到期日 357 00:15:09,779 --> 00:15:12,840 合计合同总价值超过700亿美元 358 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,509 第五估值太贵 359 00:15:14,509 --> 00:15:17,129 如果按市场最乐观的2万亿美元 360 00:15:17,129 --> 00:15:18,570 远期上限来测算 361 00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:20,029 它的静态市销率 362 00:15:20,029 --> 00:15:22,779 已经直接飙到了恐怖的107倍 363 00:15:22,779 --> 00:15:24,080 哪怕我们退一步 364 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,080 按1.75万亿的上市初始估值计算 365 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,259 静态市效率也高达94倍左右 366 00:15:30,259 --> 00:15:31,679 看到这个数字 367 00:15:31,679 --> 00:15:33,679 你可能觉得高的离谱了吧 368 00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:35,240 但我们不妨回顾一下 369 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,230 马斯克在特斯拉上的估值打法 370 00:15:38,230 --> 00:15:40,309 当年特斯拉股价飙升时 371 00:15:40,309 --> 00:15:43,990 静态市销率也曾被爆炒到25~30倍 372 00:15:43,990 --> 00:15:47,649 当时华尔街都在用传统车企不到一倍的市销率 373 00:15:47,649 --> 00:15:49,389 疯狂唱空马斯克 374 00:15:49,389 --> 00:15:52,509 但随后特斯拉用连续几个季度的交付爆发 375 00:15:52,509 --> 00:15:55,669 和高毛利的FSD自动驾驶软件预期 376 00:15:55,669 --> 00:15:58,009 强行改变了市场的定价模型 377 00:15:58,009 --> 00:16:01,490 完成了从汽车股到科技巨头的重估 378 00:16:01,490 --> 00:16:05,259 如今马斯克在space x上玩的是一次升级版 379 00:16:05,259 --> 00:16:06,779 107倍的市销率 380 00:16:06,779 --> 00:16:10,200 意味着市场分歧比当年的特斯拉还要大 381 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,440 英伟达拿到的是30倍的市销率 382 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,659 是因为他拥有超过100%的爆发式增速 383 00:16:15,659 --> 00:16:19,259 而SPACEX去年营收增速其实是33% 384 00:16:19,259 --> 00:16:22,659 用33%的常态增长去匹配 385 00:16:22,659 --> 00:16:24,639 107倍的市效率估值 386 00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:25,700 这确实意味着 387 00:16:25,700 --> 00:16:28,870 当前的价格已经极度透支了未来的预期 388 00:16:28,870 --> 00:16:30,490 PN检测的机构认为 389 00:16:30,490 --> 00:16:34,099 星链业务合理价值大约6000到7000亿美元 390 00:16:34,099 --> 00:16:36,458 剩下的1万亿基本在赌太空 391 00:16:36,458 --> 00:16:38,418 AI数据中心这个远期故事 392 00:16:38,418 --> 00:16:39,899 短期内根本无法兑现 393 00:16:39,899 --> 00:16:42,049 利润偏乐观的投资者认为 394 00:16:42,049 --> 00:16:44,339 SPACEX拥有物理级的护城河 395 00:16:44,339 --> 00:16:47,558 发射成本只有对手的1/3甚至1/5 396 00:16:47,558 --> 00:16:50,509 手里还握着新盾的巨额防务活动 397 00:16:50,509 --> 00:16:52,490 买它不是买当下的静态利润 398 00:16:52,490 --> 00:16:55,929 而是买未来对太空轨道的垄断地位 399 00:16:55,929 --> 00:16:58,049 用更直白的方式拆解一点 400 00:16:58,049 --> 00:17:00,610 75万亿约等于6500亿 401 00:17:00,610 --> 00:17:02,599 星链基本盘加3000亿 402 00:17:06,199 --> 00:17:07,878 AI想象空间 403 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,759 但高盛分析师预计到 404 00:17:10,759 --> 00:17:11,720 2030年 405 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,079 space x总营收将达到4740亿美元 406 00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:18,159 其中AI部门营收将增长近100倍 407 00:17:18,159 --> 00:17:20,939 达到近3220亿美元 408 00:17:20,939 --> 00:17:22,179 ever cour则预测过 409 00:17:22,179 --> 00:17:23,190 2030年 410 00:17:23,190 --> 00:17:26,598 space x总营收将达到4860亿美元 411 00:17:26,598 --> 00:17:29,318 AI部门营收为3310亿美元 412 00:17:29,318 --> 00:17:31,618 如果按照30倍市销率 413 00:17:31,618 --> 00:17:34,299 space估值将达到14万亿美元 414 00:17:34,299 --> 00:17:36,650 是1.75万亿的八倍 415 00:17:36,650 --> 00:17:39,589 第六是长期环保合规的天花板 416 00:17:39,589 --> 00:17:42,910 地面上的汽车和飞机都要受碳排放限制 417 00:17:42,910 --> 00:17:45,519 但火箭发射至今基本没人管 418 00:17:45,519 --> 00:17:47,779 space x就是靠这个政策真空 419 00:17:47,779 --> 00:17:49,960 做到了两天发一枚火箭 420 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,579 但这个窗口不会永远敞开 421 00:17:52,579 --> 00:17:53,740 两个具体问题 422 00:17:53,740 --> 00:17:55,359 一是轨道越来越挤 423 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,779 目前近地轨道约1万5000颗活跃卫星 424 00:17:58,779 --> 00:18:00,339 星链占1万多颗 425 00:18:00,339 --> 00:18:01,659 2025年一年 426 00:18:01,659 --> 00:18:03,098 星链为了避免碰撞 427 00:18:03,098 --> 00:18:04,888 紧急变轨了30万次 428 00:18:04,888 --> 00:18:06,709 同时星链为了技术升级 429 00:18:06,709 --> 00:18:09,209 每年主动淘汰大批老卫星 430 00:18:09,209 --> 00:18:10,528 然后发新卫星 431 00:18:10,528 --> 00:18:14,009 不忘这些都在推高日常运营成本 432 00:18:14,009 --> 00:18:16,079 而是环保压力在积累 433 00:18:16,079 --> 00:18:21,150 猎鹰9号每次发射会向平流层排出约5吨黑炭 434 00:18:21,150 --> 00:18:23,490 温室效应是地面的540倍 435 00:18:23,490 --> 00:18:24,470 2025年 436 00:18:24,470 --> 00:18:29,069 全球卫星载入烧毁的总重量超过2000吨 437 00:18:29,069 --> 00:18:30,630 大部分来自星面 438 00:18:30,630 --> 00:18:35,210 烧出来的金属氧化物颗粒正在加速臭氧层损耗 439 00:18:35,210 --> 00:18:38,119 美国NOAA已经采集到了证据 440 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,279 环保组织正在向FAA和EPA施压 441 00:18:41,279 --> 00:18:43,180 未来几年很可能出台 442 00:18:43,180 --> 00:18:46,440 针对火箭排放和载入金属的新规 443 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,220 不过这个风险对space x可能反而是个机会 444 00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:52,259 因为马斯克早就做了准备 445 00:18:52,259 --> 00:18:55,279 新一代兴建采用液氧甲烷燃料 446 00:18:55,279 --> 00:18:56,680 几乎不产生黑炭 447 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,388 顺便解决了环保问题 448 00:18:58,388 --> 00:19:00,759 如未来出台严苛的行业标准 449 00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:03,500 SPACEX的发射成本已经是全球最低 450 00:19:03,500 --> 00:19:05,059 技术也提前达标 451 00:19:05,059 --> 00:19:06,660 可以轻松跨过门槛 452 00:19:06,660 --> 00:19:07,920 而那些规模小 453 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,309 技术落后的竞争对手 454 00:19:09,309 --> 00:19:12,409 很可能被高昂的合规成本挡在门外 455 00:19:12,409 --> 00:19:13,568 换句话说 456 00:19:13,568 --> 00:19:16,368 环保法规不仅不会让SPACEX减速 457 00:19:16,368 --> 00:19:18,750 反而可能帮他清理掉一批对手 458 00:19:18,750 --> 00:19:20,349 不过大家要明白 459 00:19:20,349 --> 00:19:24,109 上面这六条没有哪一条是明天就会崩盘的那种 460 00:19:24,109 --> 00:19:26,730 但它们合在一起提醒我们一件事 461 00:19:26,730 --> 00:19:30,529 space x的高估值里有一部分是实实在在的业务 462 00:19:30,529 --> 00:19:33,339 还有很大一部分是对未来的乐观预期 463 00:19:33,339 --> 00:19:34,200 作为散户 464 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,240 买之前心里有数就行 465 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:37,900 我把这些风险列出来 466 00:19:37,900 --> 00:19:38,880 不是劝你别买 467 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:40,630 而是让你买的明白 468 00:19:40,630 --> 00:19:43,930 那么面对这样一个前所未有的科技巨兽 469 00:19:43,930 --> 00:19:46,309 我们散户到底该怎么具体参与 470 00:19:46,309 --> 00:19:50,480 我的建议是执行最严密的两步走建仓策略 471 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,299 第一步是你的短期策略 472 00:19:53,299 --> 00:19:54,460 上市头两周 473 00:19:54,460 --> 00:19:57,230 由于市场可交易的流通盘极小 474 00:19:57,230 --> 00:19:59,549 加上马斯克巨大的明星光环 475 00:19:59,549 --> 00:20:01,190 全球资金集中涌入 476 00:20:01,190 --> 00:20:03,500 必然会造成严重的供需失衡 477 00:20:03,500 --> 00:20:05,829 开盘直接冲高是大概率事件 478 00:20:05,829 --> 00:20:07,210 如果呢你和我一样 479 00:20:07,210 --> 00:20:08,690 不计较短期的浮亏 480 00:20:08,690 --> 00:20:10,430 只为了在第一时间拿下 481 00:20:10,430 --> 00:20:13,009 一首具有历史意义的原始席位 482 00:20:13,009 --> 00:20:14,880 那么你可以提前申购 483 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:19,079 或在盘前参考机构按盘的big price溢价挂单 484 00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:21,579 确保在一开盘就锁定头仓 485 00:20:21,579 --> 00:20:23,599 防止被彻底踏空 486 00:20:23,599 --> 00:20:25,929 第二步是你的中期策略 487 00:20:25,929 --> 00:20:27,528 对于更理性的资金来说 488 00:20:27,528 --> 00:20:28,588 第一周冲高后 489 00:20:28,588 --> 00:20:30,229 到了第15个交易日 490 00:20:30,229 --> 00:20:32,729 指数基金被迫高位接盘时 491 00:20:32,729 --> 00:20:35,259 恰恰也是我们在风险里提到的 492 00:20:35,259 --> 00:20:39,179 早期风投机构批量获利了结的敏感窗口 493 00:20:39,179 --> 00:20:41,578 这时候盘面很可能会出现一次 494 00:20:41,578 --> 00:20:44,880 由于大资金交割而带来的剧烈震荡 495 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:49,309 所以绝不要在开盘第一天就把子弹全部打光 496 00:20:49,309 --> 00:20:51,490 留下50%以上的资金 497 00:20:51,490 --> 00:20:54,369 等上市一个月内出现剧烈回调时 498 00:20:54,369 --> 00:20:56,630 再去分批逢低买入 499 00:20:56,630 --> 00:20:58,130 这才是最稳健 500 00:20:58,130 --> 00:21:01,069 最能拉低成本的建仓逻辑 501 00:21:01,069 --> 00:21:04,869 买入space x本质上不是卖一家普通的商业公司 502 00:21:04,869 --> 00:21:08,699 而是选择把信任和资本彻底交付给马斯克本人 503 00:21:08,699 --> 00:21:10,179 希望今天的深度拆解 504 00:21:10,179 --> 00:21:12,919 能让你的每一发子弹都打得明明白白 505 00:21:12,919 --> 00:21:14,318 关注美股投资网 506 00:21:14,318 --> 00:21:17,680 我们接下来的几天会在VIP社区持续跟踪 507 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,359 space x开盘前的 508 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,039 最新机构按盘报价和低手入场信号 509 00:21:23,039 --> 00:21:24,680 欢迎加入我们的VIP社群 510 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,200 把握住一辈子只有一次的机会 511 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,180 如果你觉得我们这期视频背后的深度调研 512 00:21:30,180 --> 00:21:32,400 与数据拆解对您有所帮助 513 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,079 请把它转发给你身边 514 00:21:34,079 --> 00:21:35,160 同样关注美股 515 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,720 关注科技的朋友们 516 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:37,980 感谢大家的支持 517 00:21:37,980 --> 00:21:39,779 祝大家打新好运
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