【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】Adobe崩盘了吗？还有60%极限下跌空间

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大家好

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各位投资者

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一片评论浪潮

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当然关于adobe

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这意味着股价将下跌

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现在我们必须分析这一点

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从价值投资角度

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我确实有研究平台

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完成了我的十五

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过去八年每年加薪

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自二零零二年起投资

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表现更佳

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自二零零二年起

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我们关注基本面

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正是我们将以Adobe业务所有权所做之事

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拥有企业

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你可以通过链接查看我所有操作

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在下方描述中的我的投资

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我的投资组合

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也可查看Interactive Brokers

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作为最便宜的经纪商

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点击那个链接

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你支持这个频道

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我们去Adobe看看

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讨论 earnings（财报）

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这家企业

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估值与投资结论

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当股价下跌时

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迈克尔·伯里将其转为全仓

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他持有大量全仓头寸

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但让我们稍微看看业务收入

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增长了百分之十一

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每股收益

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增长了百分之八

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这是他们显示的非稀释 earnings

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因为股票薪酬是一项费用

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这里最重要的是

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八 percent 的 earnings 增长

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他们失去了 ceo

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现在 cfo 和其他方面正在发生一些变化

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这是一个问号

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但如果是好生意

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那这就不应该有问题

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增长正在放缓

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正如我们所说全面减速

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然后还有每股收益与非每股收益的差距

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嗯

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我猜Adobe的人从不阅读

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沃伦·巴菲特

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沃伦·巴菲特对他们来说是个恐龙

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然而他的引语正是基于股票补偿的名称

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说尽一切补偿

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如果补偿不是一项费用

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那它到底是什么

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这纯粹是在误导投资者

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误导一切

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我看到华尔街的预测

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使用这个数字

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这太疯狂了

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他们已从用户增长转向年度持续营收

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根据巴里指出

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存在定价压力

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他们声称用户数量增至一亿

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或类似数据

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但这只是价格上涨12%

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这意味着定价压力

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其他事物

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有些事物增长更快

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有些事物增长更慢

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但这是一种非常负面的趋势

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似乎无法阻止Adobe的列车

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让我们稍作观察

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业务部分可能存在理解问题以看清Adobe作为投资的价值

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如果我们审视业务

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好的

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Acrobat

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PDF文件

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Gen Studio Adobe

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Express

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Photoshop

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Firefly

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某些逻辑

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创意云

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诸多产品

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商务专业人士

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创意营销

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是的

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你可以使用Adobe

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能完成很多事情

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但我想将业务与当前环境联系起来

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我认为这是最好的环境

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对数字创作者的营销

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对数字内容

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与Adobe相关的任何想象

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Adobe现状如何

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正在放缓

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观察营收增长

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仍处于低双位数增长

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但定价压力仍在增长

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然而

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每股收益仅增长8%

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这就是最大的疑问点

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关键因素是增速仍在放缓

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这让华尔街感到恐慌

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接下来的问题是这是否比华尔街预期更强

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然后我让助理告诉我

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好的

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给我一个能代表

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我为什么要用你

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为什么你比Adobe更好

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然后这是可视化呈现

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说明所有功能一次完成

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无需经过多层流程

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多步骤操作

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这就是我们看到的情况

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这是一个高度竞争的环境

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它正在增长

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但Adobe增速更慢

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这意味着市场份额在流失

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市场份额仍表现优异

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整体情况依然良好

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但问题在于

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如果持续放缓

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稍后讨论中我会加入几个因素

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会让情况看起来不同

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或许如此，让我们用内在价值公式分析Adobe

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我们最近刚完成

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微软

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你也可以查看此处视频

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此内容可通过链接下载

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下方描述中

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在我的免费市场课程里

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现在分析Adobe

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请点击此处

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当前股价已显示

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现在需要输入参数

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首先假设正常情景

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每股收益17美元

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扣除特殊项目的收益

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不是不合理的激进增长

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如果预计未来五年收益增长8%

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随后五年增长6%

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我采用10%的折现率

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设定P/E比为15

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这就是内在价值

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接近当前股价

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现在

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9%的回报率

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没有问题

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我们到此为止

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因此，如果未来十年他们以个位数速度增长

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Adobe当前估值约为九倍

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预期年化收益10%

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如果我们考虑最佳情景

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假设采用13%的增长率

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12%的年增长率

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终值倍数为20倍

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市盈率20倍

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Adobe股价需翻倍再翻倍

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仅能获得10%的年化收益

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这意味着真实回报率更高

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如果这里填入17%

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即未来十年保持17%年增长

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基于这些指标

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这就是Adobe的潜在收益

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但如果增速持续放缓

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Adobe仍维持现有业务

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但面临定价压力

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竞争环境迫使他们

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必须进行变革

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CFO离职，COO离职

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局势有些动荡

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让我们考虑最坏情况

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安全边际情景

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我称之为

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好的

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在此价位

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我不会亏损

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或希望不亏损

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假设他们再增长一年

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10%的增长率

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然后归零

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之后每年亏损10%

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假设4%的增长

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随后4%的下滑

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这个国家

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市盈率10倍

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十年后降至10倍

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十年后的终值

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我需要调整这里

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现在是2026年

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这里显示24.5

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十年后的终值

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175

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未来将亏损

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当前回报的现值应为

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这相当于75%至65%的跌幅

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说我疯了

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仅作案例分析

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你可以调整的概率

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有没有更糟糕的情况

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是的

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那就是

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它不值得进入我的投资组合

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我们还会遇到更多这类情况

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所以请订阅

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但还有更多，比如股票期权补偿

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这是个重要问题

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报告的会计薪酬与真实成本存在差异

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公司需要维持相同数量的流通股

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这也取决于股价

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所以我在这里询问

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显示已报告的成本

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与回购维持股份数量的实际成本对比

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然后这里显示

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每年花费约两亿美元用于股票期权补偿

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如果我们深入分析

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稀释率每年达3%

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是的

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现在结合市值来看

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我们大致处于这个水平

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市值840亿的3%

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25亿美元

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维持股份数量的实际成本

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当股价较高时

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这一数字曾高达50亿美元

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这一数字曾达75亿美元

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这几乎抵消了当时的回购支出

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如果我们观察过去五年

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Ando的流通股减少了12%

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而最大的降幅现在

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随着股价崩盘

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股价下跌时股票期权补偿显得更优

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但股价正在下跌

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让我们讨论Bar的全部持仓

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Adobe的市销率是关键指标

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处于十年低位

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拥有稳定的销售额

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带来利润

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具备基本面支撑

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市盈率也偏低

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这种状况可能逆转

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Berry持有大量满仓头寸

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是否会发生逆转

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我不够聪明无法判断

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关键在于理解

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Berry目前持有七只满仓标的

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他只需自由增持

249
00:09:46,649 --> 00:09:49,649
两只不动，一只破产

250
00:09:49,649 --> 00:09:56,769
这就是策略，意味着Adobe可作为多元化配置的一部分

251
00:09:56,769 --> 00:09:59,149
如果不专注

252
00:09:59,149 --> 00:10:00,809
可能会损失很多

253
00:10:00,809 --> 00:10:05,568
现在讨论一个不在任何人关注中的事情

254
00:10:05,568 --> 00:10:07,828
因为已经十七年没发生了

255
00:10:09,548 --> 00:10:11,049
两年零增长

256
00:10:11,049 --> 00:10:11,850
盈利情况

257
00:10:11,850 --> 00:10:13,370
基于股票的补偿

258
00:10:13,370 --> 00:10:14,710
价格压力

259
00:10:14,710 --> 00:10:17,090
无论盈利崩溃

260
00:10:17,090 --> 00:10:21,000
从十七比十二的比率降至十比十二

261
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:22,980
股价是一百二十

262
00:10:22,980 --> 00:10:24,080
这又是另一个

263
00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,570
从这里下跌四十个百分点

264
00:10:27,570 --> 00:10:29,909
因此在我们的象限I中放置

265
00:10:29,909 --> 00:10:32,610
我会继续持有adobe

266
00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:36,379
对我来说这太重了

267
00:10:36,379 --> 00:10:38,000
说到你

268
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,860
我不知道你的风险承受能力

269
00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:43,019
你是否有更好的

270
00:10:43,019 --> 00:10:45,929
我们昨天讨论了微软

271
00:10:46,129 --> 00:10:50,389
或许比较数据会更好

272
00:10:50,389 --> 00:10:56,690
从估值角度看微软优于adobe

273
00:10:56,690 --> 00:11:00,240
所以在多元化策略中

274
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,568
添加微软更好

275
00:11:02,568 --> 00:11:05,808
关于adobe我们将讨论更多公司

276
00:11:05,808 --> 00:11:08,370
看看是否适合你

277
00:11:08,370 --> 00:11:09,850
如果你想查看我的操作

278
00:11:09,850 --> 00:11:11,529
查看我的研究平台

279
00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:12,690
感谢观看

280
00:11:12,690 --> 00:11:14,309
期待你的评论

281
00:11:14,309 --> 00:11:18,240
或许我在策略上帮了你一点

282
00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:18,879
谢谢

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