【Couch Investor】华尔街从未如此离谱！

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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在今天的视频中

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我们将看看当前的市场状况

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在录制时的情况

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整体看起来相当平稳

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但我想重点介绍一家公司

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当然，这家公司掌控着市场的一切动态

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无论我们是否喜欢

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尤其是在讨论AI半导体科技公司时

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当然就是英伟达

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英伟达是地球上最有价值的公司

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但股价过去六个月毫无起色

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所以在今天的视频中

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让我们看看公司估值与MD的对比

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当然基于DCF模型

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牛市和熊市两种情景

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以便更好地理解当前定价

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目前未被定价的因素

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当然所有DCF分析均可免费获取

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有一个谷歌网盘

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链接在描述和置顶评论中

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现在如果观察市场

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这就是现状

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我们现在需要关注这一点

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你可能会觉得不错

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美光下跌了4.5%

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已回到每股377美元

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那里到底发生了什么

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我们刚刚经历了非常出色的季度

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还有良好的业绩指引

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这更多与谷歌发布Turbo Quant有关

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这是一种确保

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能更高效运行AI推理的方式

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无需大量内存或昂贵的HBM

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高带宽内存由三星供应

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美光向所有科技巨头供货

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当然这对美光产生了负面影响

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或许我会专门制作相关视频

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分析这对美光和三星的影响

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以及其他参与者

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至于其他公司

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火箭实验室上涨10%

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英特尔上涨7%

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罗宾汉上涨6.5%

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他们将增加15亿美元股票回购计划

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如果我没记错的话

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其余公司

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可以看到绿色上涨

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我们仍有一些红色下跌

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一如既往

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正如我们所说

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镁光科技股价下跌

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服务仍在继续

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现在出现红色警示

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Salesforce的评级调整

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奥斯卡

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联合健康集团

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Adobe与诺维斯迪股价实际低于四十美元一股

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Root和Nabis均下跌，谷歌也下跌0.2%

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ETA基本持平

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让我们谈谈英伟达

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正如你所看到的

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过去六个月

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这只股票毫无表现

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过去六个月

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上涨1.4美元或0.8%

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8%

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年初至今

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下跌5.2%

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过去十二个月仍上涨48.4%

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当然

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过去三年上涨575%

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但让我们看看公司本身

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我们关注一家市值4.3万亿美元的公司

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市盈率TTM为3

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6.3倍

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但未来预期市盈率更低

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数据显示

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24.2倍

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市盈增长比率

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0.5倍

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低于1即定义为低估

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除非我们不信任未来预期

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但若看未来定价倍数

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例如

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看这里的数据

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未来市盈率

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该公司前向市盈率1.4倍

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在我看来不贵

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市销率始终偏高

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相比其他竞争对手

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前向市销率11.5%

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是的

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这是因为当前该业务的运营利润率

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非常高

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约60%左右

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再看市现率

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过去十二个月4倍

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现在5.2倍

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部分可能显得昂贵

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但当我们看一下这家公司的利润率

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无论是营业利润率

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自由现金流利润率

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毛利率

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水库利润率或净利润率

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你不能告诉我

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这不是应该以这些市盈率交易的公司

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当然

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正如你所知

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我们不是在买入过去的表现

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我们是在买入预期

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或试图预测未来会发生什么

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而目前市场试图告诉我们的是

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现在

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疯狂的利润率

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营业利润率

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百分之六十

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自由现金流利润率

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百分之四十四

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七个百分点

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毛利率

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百分之七十一

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等等

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等等

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顺便说一句，所有这些数据都在Fiscal AI上

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描述下方和图钉评论中有链接

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使用可享15%折扣

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如果你是新用户

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可免费获得两周Fiscal Pro

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所以不妨试试

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你将获得每个视频中展示的所有内容

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现在市场试图说英伟达一切都很完美

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过去三年英伟达一切看起来都疯狂

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但为何能保证未来几年持续如此

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尽管我们分析预期增长

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指引和所有数据

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它们看起来都很不错

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市场仍不相信

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或者说至少在告诉我们

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即使真的发生

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我们仍要谨慎行事

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因为如果看预期增长

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我们这里看到三百六十九点

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财政二十七年收入四十一亿美元

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然后四百七十九点

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财政二十八年收入九十一亿美元

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接着财政二十九年收入五百六十亿美元

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是的

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仍预期增长

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可能不会像以前那样快速增长

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当你查看这里的美元金额时这是正常的

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这完全没问题

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还有谁能保证未来几年能维持这样的利润率

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好的

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可以理解

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这就是我要展示DCF模型的原因

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牛市

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基准和熊市情景

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你将看到当前的市场地位以更好地理解现状

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我们快速看一下资本支出及未来财年预期

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如财年26年所示

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接近六百亿美元

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仅看亚马逊

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谷歌、Meta和微软

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预计在27财年和28财年将持续增长

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但你可以清楚看到资本支出增速正在放缓

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最近我们经历

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当然

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GTC詹森表示

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他将此前预测翻倍

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预测2027年AI芯片需求达一千亿美元

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需求中约60%来自超大规模云服务商

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40%来自企业及主权云领域

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记住这里这个资本支出数字

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接近六百亿美元

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仅指四家公司

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你还有

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全球数百家公司

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你还有

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当然

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各国也在投入巨额资金

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当我们查看Broom Block终端数据时

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例如

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嗯

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是的

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预期与这个数字相当接近

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2027年一千亿美元需求预测

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因此

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这就是市场可能未对此感到意外的原因

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但需注意

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他们明确表示至少一千亿美元

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他已明确表示将保持谨慎态度

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当前这个数字

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在继续讨论GTC发布会前

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AMD对比及Grok与Aq分析

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我们来看DCF模型

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好的

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简而言之

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这就是核心内容

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当前股价

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然后是牛市和熊市隐含的价格

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如果你只需要看到这一点

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这就是基本的牛市情况看涨方向

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七十四点

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四个百分点

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基准情况接近十九个百分点

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熊市情况

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三点六

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六个百分点的下行空间

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概率加权价格位于两百接近两百二十五美元

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这代表大约二十

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五个百分点的上行空间

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我给基准情况赋予五十个百分点概率

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二十点在熊市三十点在牛市可能更高

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你可以随意调整这些数字

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这就是DCF的核心

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所以这些假设都在这里

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但让我们看看每个案例的预测

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现在开始分析牛市情况

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前几年的收入增长率

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基本基于当前市场预期

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稍作乐观调整

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然后是的

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增长

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当然

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预期会放缓

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最后可能下降过快

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但不要忘记

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我们将处理数千亿美元的收入

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因此我不认为公司能实现超万亿收入

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现在以二十个百分点增长

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在此案例中利润率

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能够维持当前水平

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甚至可能更好

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我们看到这里

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将保持在约百分之六十五

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这带来企业自由现金流

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企业息税前利润率约百分之五

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四个百分点

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五四点

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五个百分点

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这就是牛市情况

243
00:09:12,639 --> 00:09:14,440
我认为对于牛市情况

244
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:15,779
相当合理

245
00:09:15,779 --> 00:09:17,419
有些人可能会说不

246
00:09:17,419 --> 00:09:18,960
这显然不合理

247
00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,179
描述和置顶评论中有链接

248
00:09:21,179 --> 00:09:23,039
你可以自行操作

249
00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:23,399
完全免费

250
00:09:23,399 --> 00:09:24,960
无需邮箱或Patreon

251
00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,480
这里的基准情况也一样

252
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,539
我基于前几年的分析师预期来制定基础

253
00:09:31,539 --> 00:09:32,639
然后是的

254
00:09:32,639 --> 00:09:36,299
增长率将逐渐下降

255
00:09:36,299 --> 00:09:37,720
留有适度空间

256
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,639
我比乐观情景低一些

257
00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:40,460
这合乎逻辑

258
00:09:40,460 --> 00:09:43,839
但仍略好于当前观察到的情况

259
00:09:43,839 --> 00:09:45,119
我认为这家公司

260
00:09:45,119 --> 00:09:45,538
是的

261
00:09:45,538 --> 00:09:48,568
在软件投资和推理领域

262
00:09:48,568 --> 00:09:51,788
我认为他们能维持这类利润率

263
00:09:51,788 --> 00:09:54,328
因此我定为百分之六十二

264
00:09:54,328 --> 00:09:57,929
将保持平稳并维持在该水平

265
00:09:57,929 --> 00:09:58,529
好的

266
00:09:58,529 --> 00:10:04,000
这使自由现金流利润率达到百分之五十三

267
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,980
略高于当前水平

268
00:10:06,980 --> 00:10:07,580
但同样

269
00:10:07,580 --> 00:10:08,919
基于这些假设

270
00:10:08,919 --> 00:10:11,159
这就是结果

271
00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:12,909
至于悲观情景

272
00:10:12,909 --> 00:10:15,549
现在一切可能出错

273
00:10:15,549 --> 00:10:16,230
在悲观情景下

274
00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:17,370
仅仅因为是悲观情景

275
00:10:17,370 --> 00:10:19,609
并不意味着必须完全悲观

276
00:10:19,609 --> 00:10:21,688
不要脱离现实假设

277
00:10:21,688 --> 00:10:23,629
需要合理

278
00:10:23,629 --> 00:10:24,990
为了让其合理

279
00:10:24,990 --> 00:10:31,100
当然我仍预计本财年收入增长百分之七十

280
00:10:31,100 --> 00:10:36,159
但增长会显著放缓

281
00:10:36,159 --> 00:10:39,700
MD增长与其他科技巨头类似

282
00:10:39,700 --> 00:10:43,100
他们可能对自身芯片满意

283
00:10:43,100 --> 00:10:45,200
因此对英伟达需求减少

284
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:45,559
是的

285
00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:46,659
这就是悲观情景

286
00:10:46,659 --> 00:10:47,980
这就是结果

287
00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:48,600
在此处

288
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:53,210
显然利润率已降至六十以下

289
00:10:53,210 --> 00:10:55,789
最终定在五十七左右

290
00:10:55,789 --> 00:11:00,289
我知道有人会认为这仍过高

291
00:11:00,289 --> 00:11:01,740
但看

292
00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:04,779
看看英伟达当前的地位

293
00:11:04,779 --> 00:11:09,559
他们要失去巨大的定价权

294
00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:10,460
竞争力

295
00:11:10,460 --> 00:11:13,029
无论叫什么

296
00:11:13,029 --> 00:11:16,269
许多因素需向不利方向发展

297
00:11:16,269 --> 00:11:17,190
是的

298
00:11:17,190 --> 00:11:19,850
即使这是悲观情景你已看到

299
00:11:19,850 --> 00:11:22,359
当然悲观情景价格

300
00:11:22,359 --> 00:11:23,698
是三点六

301
00:11:23,698 --> 00:11:26,658
今天的水平比六个百分点更低

302
00:11:26,658 --> 00:11:29,678
这些假设基础上得出的结论

303
00:11:29,678 --> 00:11:31,038
这里的自由现金流利润率

304
00:11:31,038 --> 00:11:31,418
四

305
00:11:31,418 --> 00:11:33,259
大约六个百分点

306
00:11:33,259 --> 00:11:33,740
所以

307
00:11:33,740 --> 00:11:33,960
是的

308
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:38,840
这并不意味着公司会突然出现极差的利润率

309
00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:39,379
不

310
00:11:39,379 --> 00:11:42,450
仍将保持极高的利润率

311
00:11:42,450 --> 00:11:44,970
但基于你今天支付的价格

312
00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:45,690
嗯

313
00:11:45,690 --> 00:11:47,389
还不够好

314
00:11:47,389 --> 00:11:48,370
这就是关键所在

315
00:11:48,370 --> 00:11:51,580
这类练习的核心在于观察

316
00:11:51,580 --> 00:11:52,059
好的

317
00:11:52,059 --> 00:11:53,340
当前价格中已包含哪些因素

318
00:11:53,340 --> 00:11:55,039
我愿意为此支付多少

319
00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:58,769
上涨空间中有多少溢价

320
00:11:58,769 --> 00:12:00,830
我愿意在这里支付这个价位

321
00:12:00,830 --> 00:12:01,809
你可以清楚看到

322
00:12:01,809 --> 00:12:04,440
即使利润率极高

323
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,879
无论是毛利率还是自由现金流

324
00:12:06,879 --> 00:12:12,059
其价值远低于当前价格

325
00:12:12,059 --> 00:12:13,279
这就是核心观点

326
00:12:13,279 --> 00:12:18,099
然后在敏感性分析标签中

327
00:12:18,099 --> 00:12:19,538
终端增长率

328
00:12:19,538 --> 00:12:22,839
然后你会看到当前我们处于这里

329
00:12:22,839 --> 00:12:24,839
三%的终端增长率

330
00:12:24,839 --> 00:12:25,859
十二%

331
00:12:25,859 --> 00:12:26,549
调整

332
00:12:26,549 --> 00:12:27,809
有些人会再次说

333
00:12:27,809 --> 00:12:29,559
太高或太低

334
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,279
只需查看此处范围

335
00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:32,820
然后你会迅速发现

336
00:12:32,820 --> 00:12:33,000
哦

337
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:33,600
三点

338
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,289
五%的终端增长率

339
00:12:35,289 --> 00:12:36,809
十四%的调整

340
00:12:36,809 --> 00:12:38,289
或八%的调整

341
00:12:38,289 --> 00:12:41,179
你可以随意调整这些参数

342
00:12:41,179 --> 00:12:41,519
嗯

343
00:12:41,519 --> 00:12:43,340
不要改动这些数字

344
00:12:43,340 --> 00:12:48,029
整张表格可修改的数字是蓝色部分

345
00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:50,190
现在你已了解这些数据

346
00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:55,039
是否可以说英伟达今日不贵

347
00:12:55,039 --> 00:12:57,828
是否可以说英伟达今日被低估

348
00:12:57,828 --> 00:13:00,249
请在下方评论区告诉我

349
00:13:00,249 --> 00:13:03,068
因为现在如果我们查看MD

350
00:13:03,068 --> 00:13:04,120
例如

351
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:08,700
AMD 当然在过去几年也取得了一些显著成功

352
00:13:08,700 --> 00:13:11,639
可能不如英伟达那么出色

353
00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:16,299
但以AMD当前市盈率来看是80倍

354
00:13:16,299 --> 00:13:20,139
市销率为2.4倍，市现率为28.6倍

355
00:13:20,139 --> 00:13:22,720
不过那个指标可能也略低

356
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:23,419
嗯 有点低

357
00:13:23,419 --> 00:13:25,769
我们可以看看定价指标

358
00:13:25,769 --> 00:13:27,570
所以我们也能获得其他数据

359
00:13:27,570 --> 00:13:30,210
实际上我们支付的更多

360
00:13:30,210 --> 00:13:30,970
这是三倍

361
00:13:30,970 --> 00:13:33,259
2.8倍

362
00:13:33,259 --> 00:13:34,879
这是未来十二个月

363
00:13:34,879 --> 00:13:38,100
至于财年27年则是20.2倍

364
00:13:38,100 --> 00:13:42,029
由此可见基于当前预期

365
00:13:42,029 --> 00:13:42,590
嗯

366
00:13:42,590 --> 00:13:45,309
盈利将大幅增长

367
00:13:45,309 --> 00:13:49,730
这也是为什么市盈率迅速下降

368
00:13:49,730 --> 00:13:51,350
但请自问

369
00:13:51,350 --> 00:13:53,370
为什么市场愿意支付

370
00:13:53,370 --> 00:13:59,440
或给予AMD如此高的前瞻溢价

371
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:01,779
而不在英伟达身上

372
00:14:01,779 --> 00:14:04,789
当然一个论点可能是

373
00:14:04,789 --> 00:14:07,950
英伟达市值已达4.3万亿美元

374
00:14:07,950 --> 00:14:11,029
AMD市值3550亿美元

375
00:14:11,029 --> 00:14:14,700
他们现在与OpenAI和合作伙伴建立了联系

376
00:14:14,700 --> 00:14:17,370
与OpenAI和Meta的合同

377
00:14:17,370 --> 00:14:21,830
AMD更容易看到加速增长

378
00:14:21,830 --> 00:14:25,129
相比英伟达这样的公司

379
00:14:25,129 --> 00:14:27,210
好吧 有道理

380
00:14:28,289 --> 00:14:30,929
但这并不能反驳

381
00:14:30,929 --> 00:14:36,230
英伟达本应以更高倍数估值

382
00:14:36,230 --> 00:14:37,870
基于利润率结构

383
00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:39,149
盈利能力

384
00:14:39,149 --> 00:14:41,450
当前业务增长情况

385
00:14:41,450 --> 00:14:43,759
尽管公司规模庞大

386
00:14:43,759 --> 00:14:45,980
作为AMD投资者

387
00:14:45,980 --> 00:14:47,899
我当然很高兴

388
00:14:47,899 --> 00:14:50,639
现在市场给予我更高溢价

389
00:14:50,639 --> 00:14:55,110
当然这给AMD带来更多执行压力

390
00:14:58,068 --> 00:15:01,490
无论是营收、利润还是利润率

391
00:15:01,490 --> 00:15:05,289
但我不禁关注英伟达

392
00:15:05,289 --> 00:15:07,049
我并不打算卖出AMD

393
00:15:07,049 --> 00:15:08,860
但看英伟达时你会想

394
00:15:08,860 --> 00:15:09,240
好吧

395
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,019
六个月股价毫无起色

396
00:15:11,019 --> 00:15:12,919
我们看到增长加速

397
00:15:12,919 --> 00:15:14,578
看到巨大预期

398
00:15:14,578 --> 00:15:15,938
分析了空头

399
00:15:15,938 --> 00:15:18,458
多方和基准情况

400
00:15:18,458 --> 00:15:21,429
这里确实存在上涨空间

401
00:15:21,429 --> 00:15:26,509
我不认为英伟达会在未来几年失去领先地位

402
00:15:26,509 --> 00:15:29,490
即使真的有所下滑

403
00:15:29,490 --> 00:15:31,350
它仍将遥遥领先

404
00:15:31,350 --> 00:15:34,000
行业第一的玩家开始思考

405
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:34,299
好的

406
00:15:34,299 --> 00:15:35,360
如果你在寻找

407
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,769
或许可以考虑更稳妥的方式参与这个新AI世界

408
00:15:40,129 --> 00:15:43,990
为什么不以每股180美元持有英伟达呢

409
00:15:43,990 --> 00:15:46,299
这让我再次回到GTC大会

410
00:15:46,299 --> 00:15:47,100
更具体地说

411
00:15:47,100 --> 00:15:51,750
格洛克与Aq将在

412
00:15:51,750 --> 00:15:53,850
英伟达的未来因为

413
00:15:53,850 --> 00:15:55,669
还记得2025年末

414
00:15:55,669 --> 00:16:00,419
我相信当时有英伟达以20亿美元收购Rock的公告

415
00:16:00,419 --> 00:16:02,139
并非完全收购

416
00:16:02,139 --> 00:16:03,220
而是收购兼并

417
00:16:03,220 --> 00:16:08,039
加上价值约20亿美元的授权协议

418
00:16:08,039 --> 00:16:11,500
过去一年你可能听过很多次

419
00:16:11,500 --> 00:16:13,779
或者说英伟达在训练领域仍是第一

420
00:16:13,779 --> 00:16:16,639
但在推理领域却相差甚远

421
00:16:16,639 --> 00:16:17,938
这其实并不准确

422
00:16:17,938 --> 00:16:20,418
但通过这次收购

423
00:16:20,418 --> 00:16:24,580
英伟达正确保在推理时代

424
00:16:24,580 --> 00:16:27,129
依然保持领先地位

425
00:16:27,129 --> 00:16:30,789
英伟达已获得Grok 3 LPU技术授权

426
00:16:30,789 --> 00:16:36,340
这是首个非GPU芯片的NVIDIA机架解决方案

427
00:16:36,340 --> 00:16:42,690
相比前代产品，每瓦性能提升3.5倍

428
00:16:42,690 --> 00:16:45,929
预计将于2026年第三季度交付

429
00:16:45,929 --> 00:16:49,250
采用三星4纳米工艺

430
00:16:49,250 --> 00:16:51,769
这笔交易被视为推理领域的英伟达

431
00:16:51,769 --> 00:16:52,690
英伟达回归

432
00:16:52,690 --> 00:16:56,740
使其从芯片供应商转型为网络巨头

433
00:16:56,740 --> 00:17:01,940
Grok与Aq将推动英伟达从训练供应商转型为推理优化平台

434
00:17:03,818 --> 00:17:08,740
通过结构化为授权资产交易而非全收购

435
00:17:08,740 --> 00:17:11,799
英伟达有效遏制了竞争对手崛起

436
00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:15,779
同时规避了导致ARM收购失败的反垄断障碍

437
00:17:15,779 --> 00:17:19,318
原计划交易金额约40亿美元

438
00:17:19,318 --> 00:17:23,138
通过整合弗拉·鲁宾环境72

439
00:17:23,138 --> 00:17:25,160
GPU与GRO3

440
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:25,960
LPU

441
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,119
英伟达宣称实现惊人性能跃升

442
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:33,119
正如所说，每兆瓦推理吞吐量提升3.5倍

443
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:37,669
针对万亿参数模型相比前代Blackhole架构

444
00:17:37,669 --> 00:17:41,159
每机架营收机会提升10倍

445
00:17:41,159 --> 00:17:49,410
因极速处理使数据中心无需增电即可服务更多用户

446
00:17:49,410 --> 00:17:52,690
为何这如此重要呢？因为

447
00:17:52,690 --> 00:17:53,210
当然

448
00:17:53,210 --> 00:17:56,369
随着博通等六家公司崛起

449
00:17:56,369 --> 00:17:58,849
Cerebras 将垄断推理市场

450
00:17:58,849 --> 00:18:01,519
甚至 AMD 通过拥有 LPU 也能做到

451
00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:04,440
NVIDIA 已经有效缩小了差距

452
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,299
有人认为其实一开始就没有明显差距

453
00:18:07,299 --> 00:18:10,859
然后 GROG 硬件已完全集成到 CUDA 中

454
00:18:10,859 --> 00:18:13,119
因此这里又出现了软件锁定效应

455
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:14,019
这不仅仅是 CUDA

456
00:18:14,019 --> 00:18:15,750
还有 NVIDIA 动态引擎

457
00:18:15,750 --> 00:18:18,250
开发者无需重写任何代码

458
00:18:18,250 --> 00:18:22,710
软件会自动将任务路由到最高效芯片

459
00:18:22,710 --> 00:18:23,269
最后一点

460
00:18:23,269 --> 00:18:26,089
当然我们必须谈到利润率保护

461
00:18:26,089 --> 00:18:29,200
毕竟高速推理属于高端市场

462
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,740
NVIDIA 目标定价约为四美元

463
00:18:31,740 --> 00:18:33,839
每百万个标记五美元

464
00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:36,109
从而维持高利润率

465
00:18:36,109 --> 00:18:39,150
即使推理经济持续增长

466
00:18:39,150 --> 00:18:41,509
这引出了以下几点

467
00:18:41,509 --> 00:18:42,559
就在这里

468
00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:45,900
关键在于每美元每秒处理的标记数

469
00:18:45,900 --> 00:18:47,400
Jensen 曾提到过这一点

470
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:52,690
最近比较工厂成本与标记成本

471
00:18:52,690 --> 00:18:56,049
所以你可能在《All In》播客中听过

472
00:18:56,049 --> 00:18:56,650
哦，明白了

473
00:18:56,650 --> 00:19:00,950
你认为推理工厂成本约四十到五十亿美元

474
00:19:00,950 --> 00:19:01,930
而其他公司

475
00:19:01,930 --> 00:19:07,808
MD 和 A6 公司能以更低价格做到五十亿美元的五成

476
00:19:07,808 --> 00:19:08,128
他说

477
00:19:08,128 --> 00:19:11,028
数据中心存在固定成本

478
00:19:11,028 --> 00:19:11,588
土地费用

479
00:19:11,588 --> 00:19:13,690
能源成本不会变动

480
00:19:13,690 --> 00:19:15,049
真正变动的是

481
00:19:15,049 --> 00:19:17,230
这也是我们定价的原因

482
00:19:17,230 --> 00:19:19,138
定价五十亿美元

483
00:19:19,138 --> 00:19:20,378
就是这里

484
00:19:20,378 --> 00:19:25,878
工厂成本与标记成本即使五十亿美元

485
00:19:25,878 --> 00:19:28,179
相比二十三十亿美元

486
00:19:28,179 --> 00:19:29,199
NVIDIA

487
00:19:29,199 --> 00:19:32,799
基于他们所述的效率优势

488
00:19:32,799 --> 00:19:33,759
得益于软件优化

489
00:19:33,759 --> 00:19:38,450
他们能提升整体效率确保投资回报率

490
00:19:38,450 --> 00:19:40,450
即使五十亿美元

491
00:19:40,450 --> 00:19:44,450
仍高于二十三十亿美元方案

492
00:19:44,450 --> 00:19:47,990
本质上归结为这一点

493
00:19:47,990 --> 00:19:51,559
每秒每美元处理的标记数

494
00:19:51,559 --> 00:19:52,599
我们仍处于这场革命的早期阶段

495
00:19:52,599 --> 00:19:55,000
无论你是否相信

496
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:56,940
因为最终会出现大量新公司

497
00:19:56,940 --> 00:19:59,670
大量新应用

498
00:19:59,670 --> 00:20:00,670
许多新应用

499
00:20:00,670 --> 00:20:02,509
大量新产品和服务

500
00:20:02,509 --> 00:20:04,730
如果你想吸引客户

501
00:20:04,730 --> 00:20:06,250
数十亿用户

502
00:20:06,250 --> 00:20:10,529
但客户需要每天与这些产品和功能互动

503
00:20:10,529 --> 00:20:12,829
无需等待十秒

504
00:20:12,829 --> 00:20:13,509
二十秒

505
00:20:13,509 --> 00:20:14,049
一分钟

506
00:20:14,049 --> 00:20:14,569
两分钟

507
00:20:14,569 --> 00:20:15,130
三分钟

508
00:20:15,130 --> 00:20:19,349
有时可能需要额外几分钟才能获得回复

509
00:20:19,349 --> 00:20:22,029
无论是因为机器人还是其他原因

510
00:20:22,029 --> 00:20:26,679
你需要尽可能优化这一点

511
00:20:26,679 --> 00:20:29,598
这就是这个方程式

512
00:20:29,598 --> 00:20:30,499
这里的东西

513
00:20:30,499 --> 00:20:34,519
每美元每秒的Token数最为关键

514
00:20:34,519 --> 00:20:35,519
所以现在

515
00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:36,859
单纯从股票来看

516
00:20:36,859 --> 00:20:40,779
可以看到它试图重返200日均线之上

517
00:20:40,779 --> 00:20:42,400
在日线图上

518
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,319
200日均线位于179美元

519
00:20:45,319 --> 00:20:48,940
我们离这个价位仅差十美分

520
00:20:48,940 --> 00:20:50,940
总而言之总结一下

521
00:20:50,940 --> 00:20:53,519
如果你想稳妥投资

522
00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:57,829
同时拥有大幅上涨空间且不失眠

523
00:20:57,829 --> 00:21:01,029
我认为现在英伟达的股价

524
00:21:01,029 --> 00:21:03,500
今天英伟达的价格

525
00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:06,619
与六个月七个月前的价格相同

526
00:21:06,619 --> 00:21:12,079
但在我看来公司如今比六个月七个月前更优秀

527
00:21:12,079 --> 00:21:17,969
它涉足地球上几乎所有重大技术变革

528
00:21:17,969 --> 00:21:22,199
我认为未来仍会参与其中大多数领域

529
00:21:22,199 --> 00:21:24,199
在未来几年

530
00:21:24,199 --> 00:21:25,789
甚至数十年

531
00:21:25,789 --> 00:21:27,470
在下方评论区告诉我你的看法

532
00:21:27,470 --> 00:21:28,690
在下方评论区留言

533
00:21:28,690 --> 00:21:29,930
这是否毫无争议

534
00:21:29,930 --> 00:21:31,638
这是你的首选持仓

535
00:21:31,638 --> 00:21:32,618
你不喜欢

536
00:21:32,618 --> 00:21:33,278
你持有AMD

537
00:21:33,278 --> 00:21:33,919
或其它股票

538
00:21:33,919 --> 00:21:35,898
在下方评论区告诉我

539
00:21:35,898 --> 00:21:37,719
也关注一下Fiscal TI

540
00:21:37,719 --> 00:21:39,119
我们下次再见

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